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How to Turn Inflation Worries to Your Advantage (for 5%+ Dividends)

Thursday, March 18, 2021 | Contrarian Outlook, Michael Foster

Let’s talk about inflation for a moment, because worries over rising prices are boiling over, and we contrarians can work them to our advantage.

If you’ve been watching the markets—and I’m guessing you have—you know that the rising 10-year Treasury yield, and the specter of inflation it brings, has weighed on stocks—particularly tech stocks.

Inflation Worries Weigh on Tech

As you can see, the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which outperforms the S&P 500 over just about any timeline, has fallen well behind in 2021 as of this writing. Meantime, Treasury rates continue their climb.

Inflation Pressures Rise

Here’s where the story gets interesting, because normally inflation fears trigger a rush into gold—but that’s just not happening this time.

Old Inflation “Go To” Tells the Real Story

So if inflation fears aren’t driving money into a well-established inflation hedge like gold, what’s really happening here? The answer sounds surprising at first, until you drill down into the data: it’s simply that the inflation fear is a mirage.

The Difference Between Worrying About Inflation and Actual Inflation 

Economists agree that the recently passed $1.9-trillion stimulus bill and the growing vaccination rate mean we’re quickly moving toward having an economy full of consumers with money to spend and opportunities to spend it. More spending means more inflation, so inflation will definitely rise.

But how much will it rise?

To answer that, we need to look at a metric tracked by the Federal Reserve showing expectations of inflation based on what traders are doing. This isn’t an academic exercise; it’s what trillions of dollars betting on the future value of the greenback are saying inflation will be in the coming years. That metric is rising, as it has been since the pandemic began.

Inflation Expectations Rise

But if you look at the white space at the start of this chart, you’ll see that the market’s current inflation expectations (2.01%) are just a hair above pre-pandemic expectations of 1.88%. Further, 2.01% is where the Federal Reserve wants inflation to be. So if anything, we’re now hitting the target of where inflation should be.

But that’s now. Shouldn’t we worry that this line is going up, meaning we’ll exceed 2% and get into dangerous territory soon? Not exactly.

Inflation Expectations Still Low

If we zoom out to the last decade, we see that inflation expectations now are where they were in mid-2019 and are far below where they were through the 2010s. Inflation expectations were closer to 2.5% over that time period, yet the 2010s were far from a period of hyperinflation. In fact, we had the opposite problem.

Expectations Aren’t Reality

When we compare the actual rate of inflation, as defined by changes in the consumer price index, we see that the inflation rate has been consistent, and low, over the last decade.

What to Do Now

With inflation capturing the financial press’s attention for a few weeks, contrarians had a nice opportunity to buy in by picking up the NASDAQ 100 through an index fund, for example.

Contrarian Move Pays Off

Some tech funds have done much better.

Higher Yields and Better Return

The BlackRock Science and Technology Trust (BST), for instance, is up 6.1% over that same time period while also paying a 5% dividend, which is nearly 10 times the payout on the tech benchmark Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

BST, which holds large cap tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) also recently raised its dividend, one of about a dozen closed-end funds (CEFs) to do so—and that’s a sure sign of the fund’s ongoing strength as the economy picks up.

Beyond Tech: 5 CEFs Paying 7.2% Dividends (With 20% Gains Ahead)

The CEF game isn’t limited to tech. You can use these widely overlooked funds to reach into any corner of the market: large cap stocks, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, real estate investment trusts, you name it.

In fact, I’ve created a 5-fund “mini portfolio” that gives you instant exposure to all the major CEF sectors, and it pays you a steady 7.2% dividend, too. Drop, say, $500K into this 5-buy portfolio and you’ll kick-start a nice $36,000 in dividend income, year in and year out.

Better still, these funds trade at big discounts now—so much so that I’m calling for 20% price gains, on average, in the next 12 months, to go along with their hefty dividend payouts.

The whole portfolio is waiting for you now. Click here and I’ll take you for a tour of these 5 powerful income plays. You’ll get their names, tickers, complete dividend histories, my complete take on management and everything else you need to know.


Featured Article: How can investors benefit from after-hours trading?


7 Electric Vehicle (EV) Stocks That Have Real Juice

I’ll start with a disclaimer. You won’t see Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) or Nio (NYSE:NIO) on this list. And that’s not because I’m being contrarian. I just view Tesla and Nio as the known quantities in the electric vehicle sector. The goal of this presentation is to help you identify stocks that may be flying under your radar.

Many EV stocks went public in 2020 via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). There is both good and bad to that story. The good is that investors have many options for investing in the EV sector. Many of the companies that have entered the market are attempting to carve out a specific niche.

The potentially bad news is that these stocks are very speculative in nature. Whereas companies like Tesla and Nio have a proven (albeit recent) track record, there are things like revenue and orders that investors can analyze. With many of these newly public companies, investors are being asked to buy the story more than the stock and that is always risky.

However, in this special presentation, we’ve identified seven companies that look like they have a story that is compelling enough that investors should be rewarded in 2021.

View the "7 Electric Vehicle (EV) Stocks That Have Real Juice".


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