Japan's governing coalition likely to lose upper house election, exit polls show

Key Points

• Exit polls project the Ishiba coalition to secure only 32–51 seats, well below the 50-seat threshold needed to retain an upper house majority.
• The LDP alone is set for its worst-ever result with just 32–35 seats, yet Prime Minister Ishiba vows to stay in office to tackle economic and security challenges.
• Frustration over soaring prices, stagnant wages and heavy social security costs has fueled support for emerging populist parties like Sanseito, which is projected to win 16 seats.
• Major gains by fragmented opposition groups—CDPJ up to 26 seats and DPP to 17—alongside populist surges threaten coalition-building and deepen Japan’s political instability.

TOKYO (AP) — The governing coalition of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was on the verge of losing a majority in the smaller of Japan's two parliamentary houses in a key election Sunday. It was still short of a majority with just six more seats to be decided, signaling a worsening of the country's political instability.

Voters were deciding half of the 248 seats in the upper house, the less powerful of the two chambers in Japan's Diet.

Vote counts

Ishiba has set the bar low, wanting a simple majority of 125 seats, which means his Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, and its Buddhist-backed junior coalition partner Komeito need to win 50 to add to the 75 seats they already have.

That would mean a big retreat from the 141 seats they had before the election.

Exit poll results released seconds after the ballots closed Sunday night mostly showed a major setback for Ishiba’s coalition. So far, Ishiba's coalition has secured 46 seats, with just six more seats to be decided.

Ishiba vows to stay on

The LDP alone so far won 38 seats, better than most exit poll projections of 32, and still the No. 1 party in the parliament.

“It's a tough situation. I take it humbly and sincerely,” Ishiba told a live interview with NHK. He said that the poor showing was because his government's measures to combat price increase have yet to reach many people.

Ishiba showed his determination to stay on to tackle economic and security challenges.

“I will fulfill my responsibility as head of the No. 1 party and work for the country.”

Economic worries

A poor performance in the election would not immediately trigger a change of government because the upper house lacks the power to file a no-confidence motion against a leader, but it would certainly deepen uncertainty over his fate and Japan’s political stability. Ishiba would face calls from within the LDP party to step down or find another coalition partner.

Soaring prices, lagging incomes and burdensome social security payments are the top issues for frustrated, cash-strapped voters. Stricter measures targeting foreign residents and visitors have also emerged as a key issue, with a surging right-wing populist party leading the campaign.

Sunday's vote comes after Ishiba's coalition lost a majority in the October lower house election, stung by past corruption scandals, and his unpopular government has since been forced into making concessions to the opposition to get legislation through parliament. It has been unable to quickly deliver effective measures to mitigate rising prices, including Japan's traditional staple of rice, and dwindling wages.

Trade talks with Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump has added to the pressure, complaining about a lack of progress in trade negotiations and the lack of sales of U.S. autos and American-grown rice to Japan despite a shortfall in domestic stocks of the grain. A 25% tariff due to take effect Aug. 1 has been another blow for Ishiba.

Ishiba has resisted any compromise before the election, but the prospect for a breakthrough after the election is just as unclear because the minority government would have difficulty forming a consensus with the opposition.

Populism gains traction

Frustrated voters are rapidly turning to emerging populist parties. The eight main opposition groups, however, are too fractured to forge a common platform as a united front and gain voter support as a viable alternative.

The emerging populist party Sanseito stands out with the toughest anti-foreigner stance, with its “Japanese First” platform that proposes a new agency to handle policies related to foreigners. The party’s populist platform also includes anti-vaccine, anti-globalism and favors traditional gender roles.

Conservative to centrist opposition groups, including the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, or CDPJ, the DPP, and Sanseito have gained significant ground at the Liberal Democrats’ expense. The CDPJ was projected to win up to 26 seats, while the DPP could quadruple to 17 seats from four, exit poll results show. Sanseito is expected to surge to 16 from just one.

None of the opposition parties said that they were open to cooperating with the governing coalition. CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda told NHK that his priority is to form an alliance among the opposition.

The spread of xenophobic rhetoric in the election campaign and on social media has triggered protests by human rights activists and alarmed foreign residents.

Choice between stability or change

LDP has almost continuously dominated Japan's postwar politics, contributing to its political stability and social conformity.

Voters are divided between stability and change, with some voicing concern about escalating xenophobia.

Yuko Tsuji, a 43-year-old consultant, who came to a polling station inside a downtown Tokyo gymnasium with her husband, said they both support LDP for stability and unity. and voted “for candidates who won't fuel division."

“If the ruling party doesn’t govern properly, the conservative base will drift toward extremes. So I voted with the hope that the ruling party would tighten things up,” she said.

Self-employed Daiichi Nasu, 57, who came to vote with his dog, said that he hopes for a change toward a more inclusive and diverse society, with more open immigration and gender policies such as allowing married couples to keep separate surnames.

“That’s why I voted for the CDPJ,” he said. “I want to see progress on those fronts.”

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Reeno Hashimoto contributed to this report.