Coupa Software Inc (NASDAQ:COUP) is down 5.5% at $55.18 at last check, despite Citigroup initiating coverage of the equity with a "buy" rating and $77 price target. Today's negative price action -- which has the shares set for their lowest close since June -- comes just days ahead of the tech name's second-quarter earnings report, due out after the close on Tuesday, Sept. 6. Below, we will unpack the equity's recent chart performance and past post-earnings activity.
A closer look shows Coupa Software stock eyeing its fourth loss over the last five sessions. The 120-day moving average capped last month's rally, though a long-time floor at the $50 level could prevent additional losses. Year-over-year, COUP is down 78.1%.
As far as post-earnings moves are concerned, the security doesn't have the best track record. Shares finished seven of eight next-day sessions lower, including a 19.2% drop back in March. COUP averaged a move of 6.3% over the past two years, regardless of direction, but this time around the options pits pricing in a much bigger swing of 13%.
Nevertheless, 10 of 19 brokerage firms covering Coupa Software stock rated it a "buy" or better, coming into today, with a 12-month consensus target price of $89.42 that is a 61.8% premium to current levels. Short sellers have been building their positions too, though, and the 5.02 million shares sold short now account for 6.7% of the equity's available float.
Options traders stand firmly in the bullish camp. Over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), COUP's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.67 ranks in the 90th percentile of its annual range. This means calls have been more popular than usual over the past two weeks.
It's also worth mentioning COUP's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at an elevated 83 out of 100, indicating the security has frequently exceeded option traders' volatility expectations during the past year.
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