Marriott International Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Participants

Corporate Executives

• Jackie Burka McConagha, Investor Relations
• Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer
• Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development

Analysts

• Shaun Kelley, Bank of America Co.
• Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley
• Smedes Rose, Smith Barney Citigroup
• David Katz, Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
• Robin Farley, UBS Group AG
• Richard Clarke, Sanford C. Bernstein
• Chad Beynon, Macquarie
• Michael Bellisario, Robert W. Baird
• Bill Crow, Raymond James
• Conor Cunningham, Melius Research
• Meredith Jensen, HSBC Holdings plc

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, today's call will be recorded and I'll be standing by if you should need any assistance.

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jackie McConagha. Please go ahead.

[Jackie Burka McConagha, Investor Relations at Marriott International]

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Marriott's third quarter 2023 earnings call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels. Statements in our comments in the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Thanks, Jackie. Thank you all for joining us today. We reported terrific third quarter results this morning. Global demand for travel has remained strong and worldwide RevPAR in the quarter rose 9% versus 2022. RevPAR increased over 4% in the U.S. and Canada and 22% internationally, driven by significant gains across Asia Pacific. Robust RevPAR growth combined with nearly 5% year-over-year rooms growth resulted in adjusted EPS of $2.11, up 25% from 2022. The third quarter tends to see a seasonally higher level of leisure transient travel, which accounted for 45% of global room nights during the quarter, about 4 percentage points above the first half.

Globally demand in this segment was again quite strong with room nights up 7% over the 2022 third quarter leading to 9% leisure transient revenue growth. In the U.S. and Canada, leisure revenues rose 4% from the year-ago quarter even as many domestic guests travelled to international locations, particularly in Europe and Asia Pacific. In the third quarter, leisure room nights from U.S. and Canadian guests traveling outside the region were up nearly 25% over last year when cross border travel is still constrained by COVID related restrictions.

Business transient demand accounted for 32% of global room nights in the quarter, while certain industries like technology and finance saw a nice sequential improvement in demand during the quarter. The overall growth for the segment remained slow and steady with business transient revenues rising 4% versus 2022 in the U.S. and Canada. Global group room night share stood at 23% in the third quarter. Compared to the year ago quarter, group revenues rose 9% globally and 5% in the U.S. and Canada. The performance of group coming out of the pandemic has been remarkable and the segment is expected to continue to be a meaningful driver of revenue growth going forward.

In the U.S. and Canada fourth quarter of 2023 group revenues were pacing up 12% year-over-year at the end of September leading to full year group revenue pacing up 19%. Of course, we have the most visibility into group given the longer booking windows. We're very pleased that as of the end of the third quarter, U.S. and Canada group revenue on the books for 2024 is pacing of 14% versus 2023, driven by a 9% rise in room nights and a 5% increase in average rates. Cross-border travel continued to strengthen helping drive RevPAR growth in the third quarter.

Asia Pacific again saw the most meaningful quarterly increase in international visitors aided by global events like the Women's World Cup and improved airlift. The percent of global room nights from cross-border guests was about 1 percentage point below 2019 levels of approximately 20%. The most upside is still expected to come in Asia Pacific as international airlift into China improves. International airlift in Greater China was roughly 50% of 2019 capacity at the end of the third quarter and is expected to improve to around 60% by the end of the year.

Turning to our powerful Bonvoy loyalty program. We remain focused on driving membership and fostering engagement with our 192 million members. Through our multi-year company-wide digital and technology transformation, we are increasingly leveraging the power of our more modern platform to create more seamless engaging digital experiences for our members. Adoption of our Marriott Bonvoy mobile app which has become the channel of choice for the majority of our members continues to grow with third quarter app downloads increasing 19% versus the same quarter last year.

We also continue to drive engagement for our Bonvoy collaborations, including Uber, Eat Around Town and our co-branded credit cards, which are currently in 11 countries. We're very excited about the opportunities our Bonvoy customers will receive from our MGM strategic licensing arrangement, which is now expected to launch in early 2024. As we think about our net rooms growth, full year 2023 growth is now expected to be 4.2% to 4.5%, higher than our previous expectation excluding the additional 37,000 MGMs. The MGM timing shift does not impact the three-year net rooms growth CAGR of 5% to 5.5% through 2025 that we laid out in our financial model at our September Analyst Day. We are pleased that over the next few years, our net rooms growth is anticipated to be squarely in the mid single-digit range.

During the quarter, our pipeline reached a new record high of nearly 557,000 rooms, a record even excluding the MGM rooms. Strong interest in conversions continues including multi-unit opportunities. Conversions represented 20% of signings and nearly 30% of openings in the quarter. As we outlined at our Analyst Day, we are very excited about the global opportunity for mid-scale. We have real momentum with the City Express brand in CALA, Four Points Express in Europe and StudioRes in the U.S. with terrific interest across the development community.

We already have 10 signed letters of intent for City Express in CALA, nine of which are in new countries for the brand, four signed deals for the Four Points Express in Turkey and in London and we're in numerous additional discussions for both brands. And while we just recently issued the franchise disclosure documents for StudioRes, we are already in talks for deals in over 300 markets across the U.S. We expect there will be shovels in the ground for StudioRes projects in the next few months.

As a global company, we are keenly aware that we are living in a time of heightened geopolitical tension. We are heartbroken by the devastating loss of so many innocent lives in Israel-Hamas conflict. Our thoughts are with everyone impacted by this tragic war as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine and we remain hopeful for peace.

I will now turn the call over to Leeny to discuss our financial results in more detail.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

Thank you, Tony. Our strong third quarter results reflect solid momentum in our business around the world and came in ahead of our expectations. As Tony noted, worldwide RevPAR grew 9% above the top end of our guidance led by meaningful gains in Asia Pacific. Global occupancy in the quarter reached 72%, 3 percentage points higher than a year ago and global ADR continued to rise growing 4%. Total company gross fee revenues totaled $1.2 billion in line with our guidance and 13% above the prior year quarter. Fees would have been higher given our RevPAR performance led from the negative impact of the wildfires in Maui, which primarily affected our IMFs.

Total IMF still grew meaningfully rising 35% to $143 million in the quarter. International IMFs rose nearly 60% benefiting from another quarter of significant RevPAR increases in Asia Pacific. Our non-RevPAR related franchise fees grew 8% to $208 million boosted by another strong quarter for our co-brand credit cards, partially offset by lower residential branding fees. Co-brand credit card fees rose 11% in the quarter, driven by another quarter of robust global card spend and new card acquisitions. Our owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expenses reached $70 million in the quarter given continued improved performance at our owned and leased hotels.

With the operating leverage inherent in our business, adjusted EBITDA rose 16% to $11.4 billion. After another quarter of meaningful share buybacks, diluted adjusted EPS grew 25% year-over-year to $2.11. Our powerful asset-light business model continues to generate a large amount of cash and our capital allocation philosophy has not changed. We're committed to our investment-grade rating investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value while returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases. In the first nine months of this year, we returned $3.4 billion to shareholders. Over the last seven years which included two years of no share repurchases as a result of COVID, we have reduced our outstanding share count by 23%, while at the same time investing meaningfully in innovation and growth.

Now let's talk about our fourth quarter and full year 2023 outlook, the full details of which are in our earnings press release. While there is heightened geopolitical risk and continued macroeconomic uncertainty, the consumer is still generally holding up well and our forward bookings through the end of the year in most regions around the world remain solid. We're raising our full year RevPAR guidance to incorporate the better than anticipated third quarter results as well as higher expectations for the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, RevPAR growth is expected to remain higher internationally than in the U.S. and Canada where we've seen a return to more normal seasonal patterns and year-over-year RevPAR growth is stabilizing. We now anticipate fourth quarter RevPAR growth of 3% to 4% in the U.S. and Canada and 14% to 16% internationally. This would lead to global RevPAR growth of 6% to 7.5% in the fourth quarter and 14% to 15% for the full year. We now expect full year total gross fee revenues could rise 17% to 18% with fourth quarter gross fees benefiting a bit of a higher RevPAR expectation. This is expected to be partially offset by lower expected residential branding fees due to anticipated completion certain of projects slipping into next year as well as a bit softer results in the Israel real and surrounding countries.

We started to see some cancellations and softer demand for our five hotels in Israel as well as for the 27 hotels in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt. Fees for these four countries made up less than 1% of total company gross fees in full year '22. We've not seen a meaningful impact on demand in the rest of the Middle East. We're keeping a close eye on the situation and working closely with our teams around as events unfold. Total non-RevPAR related fees are expected to increase around 5% for the full year benefiting from credit card fees rising roughly 10%, thanks to robust growth in average spend within the number of cardholders, partially offset by meaningfully lower residential branding fees this year versus our peak levels in 2022.

Residential fees are tied to the sales of new units and tend to be lumpy as projects enter sales and closings phases. Owned, leased and other net is now expected to be around $330 million for the full year at the low end of our previous guidance range primarily due to the restructuring of an existing lease on a hotel in New York that recently flipped to franchise. We expect 2023 G&A expenses to be around $935 million at the high end of our prior range, primarily due to higher compensation and legal expenses and to a lesser extent MGM integration costs. Compared to 2022, full year adjusted EBITDA could increase 19% to 20%, and adjusted EPS could rise 27% to 28%.

We expect to return between $4.3 billion and $4.5 billion to shareholders for the full year 2023. This is now assumes full year investment spending of $900 million to $950 million, which includes the $100 million spent on the acquisition of the City Express brand portfolio. As we've discussed with our major technology transformation, technology spending will be elevated this year and over the next few years, though this investment is overwhelmingly expected to be reimbursed over time. As we look into 2024, we continue to be enthusiastic about healthy global rising demand for our brands and our strong pipeline growth.

While we are still in the middle of putting together our property budgets for 2024, we believe the modeled total RevPAR range for 2024 of 3% to 6% we discussed at September Security Analyst Meeting is appropriate.

Thank you for your interest in Marriott. Tony and I are now happy to answer your questions.

Questions and Answers

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Shaun Kelley, Analyst at Bank of America]

Hi. Hood morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Tony or Leeny, just wanted to maybe start with the development side. Obviously, the pipeline number was very strong. It did look like the in-construction number I think slipped very modestly quarter-on-quarter. So could you maybe help, first of all, just comment big picture, Tony, on what you're seeing on the development side, particularly in the U.S. And then secondarily, just any comments on how we should expect maybe that in-construction portion to evolve just as again the development environment kind of levels off here a little bit. Thank you.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Sure. Shaun, I'll try to talk maybe macro and then I might ask Leeny to chime in with some perspective on the financing climate, particularly here in the U.S. and maybe some perspective on Europe, because those tend to be that the two markets where our development partners rely most heavily on conventional debt financing in the markets where we're seeing the most constriction in the availability of financing for new construction. With that said, the ebb and flow of under-construction is both good and bad, right, as hotels open and we had a good quarter of openings. You see under-construction hotels beat the pipeline because they enter the system as opening hotels and that's good news for us.

We talked to over the last couple of quarters about all being a steady increase in the number of construction starts, which is good news for us. But that constriction in the debt markets that I talked about precluding us from getting back to where we were pre pandemic in terms of the pace of new construction starts particularly here in the U.S. At the same time, we are encouraged by the continued increase in the pace of conversion activity both on individual conversions and portfolio conversions. And I think it's that increased pace coupled with a steady improvement in the construction starts that gives us confidence in reaffirming the multi-year net unit growth numbers we shared with you last month during the Security Analyst Conference. And maybe with that, I'll ask Leeny to just give a little more color on this financing environment.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

Yeah, sure. So couple comments overall, Shaun. One is just a reminder that the under-construction component of our pipeline also very typically includes conversions that may be going through some element of renovation before they open. And so it's not quite the same as pre-COVID, which had a lower percentage of conversions for the company overall. So as we've talked about before, we would expect, for example, perhaps roughly 30% of the openings in 2024 to be from conversions, which means they can be in the pipeline a bit differently than the classic new build timing for being in the pipeline.

So I think the nature of the under-construction pipeline could be perhaps a little bit different than pre-COVID. But as Tony was describing, you've clearly got the reality that in Asia Pacific and a number of other markets, there is meaningfully less dependence on the debt markets. And those markets are seeing much more stereotypical signings and progress into rooms under-construction. While in the U.S., what do you see is that there is clearly still an open financing market for strong brands, strong market locations, demonstrated developer success. And in those, we are absolutely continuing to see that the financing is happening and that the rooms are getting under-construction.

The main difference I would say is they're taking a bit longer to actually get under-construction. But as we kind of look going forward, the ones that are getting under-construction are moving forward and then opening right on time. So as Tony said, overall, we're pleased to see the net rooms growth, for example, that we actually raised a bit for 2023 reflecting continued strong demand for our brands and also rooms getting finished and opened, as well as really strong signings going into the pipeline. So overall, we're actually quite pleased on the new rooms front.

[Shaun Kelley, Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question will come from Joe Greff with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. And Joe, your line is open. Please go ahead with your question.

[Jackie Burka McConagha, Investor Relations at Marriott International]

You are on mute, Joe. We'll move to the next question.

[Operator]

Yes, we'll take our next question from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Grambling, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Hey, there. Can you hear me?

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Yes, good morning, Stephen.

[Stephen Grambling, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Good morning. Would love if you could put a little bit more meat on the bone for the 2024 RevPAR commentary? Specifically, if you can give any color on how you're thinking through North America versus other regions and how these assumptions may impact incentive management fees or other fees into next year? Thank you.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

Yeah. Sure. Thanks very much. As I mentioned in my comments, we continue to feel good about the 3% to 6% range that we discussed at the Security Analyst Meeting. It's worth noting however, Stephen, that we are smack in the middle of the process of building the budget set to hotel level and moving up. So we're not prepared to give kind of formal guidance at this point. But when we look broadly speaking at seeing continued demand for travel and as we talked about in the U.S., we would expect that, that will remain in this more normalized seasonal patterns that we've now come to see. You've seen our guidance for Q4 being 3% to 4%, which reflects that. But we've got some basic strong fundamentals, low supply growth for several years, which looks to continue to be the way going into '24 and that's reflected in our higher percentage of conversions. And we do expect to see another year of strong growth in our special corporate rate on top of very strong growth in that rate in '23.

As we talked about and seeing our group pace which is up 14% that's actually got strong both rooms growth as well as strong rate growth in the U.S., which does also bode well for continued sustained million in ADR. And I'll probably throw in one extra which has been in luxury. You probably remember we talked about that having in Q2, our RevPAR was down ever so slightly and our luxury U.S. and Canada properties just down by a 1% in Q2, but that actually moved positive in Q3 and was actually up 2%. So put all those together and of course, it does depend greatly on the overall macroeconomic conditions and we will need to see where that goes. But given what we look at right now, we continue to feel good about the fundamentals.

[Stephen Grambling, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Helpful. Thanks so much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question will come from Smedes Rose with Citi. Please go ahead.

[Smedes Rose, Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup]

Hi, thanks. Given those comments you've made, it was sort of like kind of a peak into '24. I guess I wanted to ask you about maybe how we should think about capital return. I mean, is it fair to assume that you would try to reach lease levels seen this year and maybe more given the cash flows and the average levels still remain below longer term targets?

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

Yeah. I think at this stage of the game since we're really working through all of the budget work and kind of looking at investment spending, etc, again, the broad guidelines that we provided at the Security Analyst Meeting remain consistent. You will remember that we talked about an expectation of having the Sheraton Grand Chicago put to Marriott in '24, which will be a use of cash we would expect at the end of '24. And that was on top of the investment spending levels that were more normalized. But I think the philosophy, Smedes, remains exactly the same, which is to say we do like where we are in terms of our credit ratios being at the lower end of our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR and would expect to remain in that territory given the various kind of uncertainties that are out there. But other than that, the basic equation that you have seen us use for quite a number of years, I would expect to be similar, which would then result in substantial amounts of capital being returned to our shareholders.

[Smedes Rose, Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup]

Great. Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question will come from David Katz with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[David Katz, Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Good morning and thank you for taking my question early. I appreciate it. I wanted to ask something a bit more strategic, because there's been so much noise around the lower end chain scales and the competitive landscape there and the competition for conversions and the launch of new brands, etc, that we've all heard. I'd love to talk about your strategy and where you are focusing more of your resources competitively and is that just based on the assets that you have? Is that strategic thought? Where are you putting more of your attention into your growth?

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Great question. Maybe the way I would answer that is I like to describe those discussions as ever being binary. We don't look at it and say let's pivot our focus away from our luxury leadership for instance towards focus on mid scale. They are not mutually exclusive. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, we are very excited about the early returns of the focused resources we've put against our entry into the mid scale. The fact that we're seeing letters of intent signed for City Express even in almost 10 new countries that we've got signed deals very early in the launch of Four Points Express and we've got funded reserve identified markets for StudioRes almost as the ink is drying on the FTG here in the U.S. and so that's extraordinarily exciting for us. But that does not require us to hit the pause button on extending our lead in the very valuable luxury segment.

And so that's a long winded way of saying our strategy is to continue to strengthen our leadership position in luxury and upper upscale while expanding our growth potential in a new segment for us, which is mid scale. And so as we've rolled out mid scale, you've got products like City Express, which I think at least initially will be largely new build. I think the same is true for StudioRes. On the other hand, you look at our platform like Four Points Express. We think there are extraordinary opportunities to rollout conversions under that platform. And as we mentioned during the analyst presentation, we will continue to look at every market we operate in and determine is there an opportunity mid scale, and if so, is it a new build opportunity, a conversion opportunity or both.

[David Katz, Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Thank you. Am I permitted a follow-up? I would ask about the mid scale stuff just to be clear that you're not finding that you have to do more either and harden soft costs in order to capture deals there and the competition level is not intensifying meaningfully or noticeably there at all, right?

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

No. I mean, obviously, it's early, but what I will tell you is we have a pretty extraordinary group of franchise partners who are brimming with excitement about our entry into this tier and we're engaged with them on every continent talking about opportunities for mid scale. So we don't find ourselves from a deals or own perspective or a capital participation perspective doing anything out of the ordinary.

[David Katz, Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Perfect. Thank you all so much.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS. Please go ahead.

[Robin Farley, Analyst at UBS Group]

Great. Thank you. I wanted to ask about unit growth next year and I know you're not giving specific guidance yet. But if we used the CAGR when you saw MGM was going to be in 2023, it kind of implied that you in the next two years would be in the 4% to 5% range. So with MGM kind of shifting into 2024, is it -- would something then in that sort of 6% to 7.5% range, right, just kind of having MGM into 4% to 5%, is that the range we should think about for unit growth next year? Thank you.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

Sure. So thanks, Robin. As we talked about in our comments and at the Security Analyst Meeting, I think when you've got a deal like MGM or City Express, things can be a little lumpy in terms of the specific year-over-year rooms growth. And so I do think it's much more important to be looking more broadly at the two to three year CAGR sort of numbers. And they are clearly with the 2.4% higher room count result of MGM that's obviously going to help 2024's number a lot. And you saw that our 2023 number came down, although it actually went up apart from MGM compared to a quarter ago. So I think the main thing I would focus on is that we continue to feel really good about the 5% to 5.5% net rooms growth over the '22 through '25 time period. And we will obviously as we get to full budget details when we get to February, we'll be more specific, but I think again the basic earnings equation and growth model of the company is exactly as we described in September at the Security Analyst Meeting.

[Robin Farley, Analyst at UBS Group]

Okay. I guess, so it sounds like you're saying your expectations for unit growth outside of MGM for next year have not changed, right? Is that at the conclusion.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

Again, as I've described, we have talked about continuing to feel very confident about the three-year 5% to 5.5% and are pleased to see the 2023 number move up a quarter of a point compared to a quarter ago. But we are in the middle of that process as we speak and we'll be able to be more specific when we get to February.

[Robin Farley, Analyst at UBS Group]

Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Richard Clarke with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

[Richard Clarke, Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein]

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just firstly on the incentive management fees, it looks like in the North American market down is just 23%, those are down year-on-year. Is that all down to this Hawaii effects? Maybe you can just clarify exactly what that effect was or is there some other discretion in there about how much you've accrued for the quarter? And if I can add a little follow-up. Just wanted to know if the MGM delay is there any impact on anything other than that guidance? How has that impacted your EBITDA guidance for Q4 as well?

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

You were a lot of muddy to on the -- kind of actual call, so unbundled, I mean, some of the words. So let me try to see what I can do with what you asked. On -- let's just talk broadly speaking on IMF, which is to say that overall for the company, we are about meaningfully in U.S. and Canada year-to-date Q3 $194 million compared to the 167 -- sorry to $221 million for the full year in 2022. So I would say, we're going to end up higher and meaningfully higher than in 2019 and we were impacted as we talked about from the Maui re-fires in our IMF by close to $10 million, which obviously are going to impact your IMF. So when I think about the percentage of hotels that are earning incentive fees in the U.S. and Canada, we have let's say year-to-date, U.S. and Canada is 31% and that compares to year-to-date in '22 of 26%. And so I think from that standpoint, we're really pleased with the margin work that's been done in the U.S. and frankly around the world. The only other thing I'd point out is that IMF for the year at $537 million year-to-date are higher than IMFs for the full year in 2022 already, just through three quarters. So again, the margins there I think show really well. Was there a second?

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Yeah. And Richard, I think, on your second question, if I heard it right, the way we think about the brief delay and the integration of MGM is the way you described it is likely to hear you clearly, which is that's principally an impact on the timing of the known impact, the impact on fees or EBITDA if that was your question is de minimis.

[Richard Clarke, Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein]

That was my question. Thanks very much for clarifying.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

[Chad Beynon, Analyst at Macquarie]

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just in terms of the group booking trends, I believe you said 9% for 2024 in terms of the number of rooms. We're still trying to get a sense if some of the current and future bookings are deferred or catch up or if this is becoming kind of the new norm, kind of the foundational level. So any color in terms of multi-year bookings, maybe into 2025 or if you've been able to kind of crack that code if this is the new base level of group? Thanks.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

So I'll talk about a couple stats and then Tony may want to add anything kind of from a more broad perspective. Just one thing that's worth noting is that group is back to being about the same percentage of our business that it was pre-COVID. So very squarely, almost a quarter of the business is related to groups. So I think you are seeing it normalizing there. And the numbers that we've talked about in U.S. and Canada of 14% that's obviously on a business that is really settled down into more normal seasonal pattern rather than still having lots of revenge travel.

I think one of the interesting things is there while some of the special corporate business has not returned in exactly the same form that it was pre-COVID, I think there is also the reality that companies are recognizing the value of getting together and are doing it in groups, maybe not in quite the same way they were doing some business transient. So when you look at the overall proportion of the business, it is really leisure and business transient that was swapped a little bit while group remains quite consistent to the way it was pre-COVID.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

And maybe the only other color I would add while it doesn't speak to 2025. In my opening remarks I talked about group revenue growth in the quarter both globally and for the U.S. and Canada and as Leeny and I have been traveling around the world. I mean, one of the things that's really encouraging is this continued forward booking strength we're seeing in group is not simply a U.S. and Canada phenomenon. We're seeing strong group pick up around the world.

[Chad Beynon, Analyst at Macquarie]

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Please go ahead.

[Michael Bellisario, Analyst at Robert W. Baird]

Thank you. Good morning. I just want to dig into group a little bit more. Could you maybe pull out corporate group meetings and incentive travel? And are you seeing the same strengths there? And is there any change maybe in the booking window that reflects some more of the layoff announcements that we've seen recently more broadly? Thank you.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

No particular trends of notice relative to kind of your point about more kind of some trends in companies. We do have longer group booking windows overall, which reflect the fact that people are finding that the hotels are full and that they need to get their groups on the books. So that part remains consistent. I would not say that we see any kind of notable difference between leisure group and business group, either kind of in the past several months or frankly over the last several years. There is a steady diet of both of those.

[Michael Bellisario, Analyst at Robert W. Baird]

Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question will come from Bill Crow with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

[Bill Crow, Analyst at Raymond James]

Hey. Good morning. Thanks. Tony, there's a difference between normalization in leisure demand and the consumer weakening. And I guess, given your broad scope across price points and globally, where are you seeing the consumer weaken?

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Well, on a macro basis, the consumer continues -- we continue to see fairly consistent strength in the consumer. We've seen a little bit of trade down. We obviously compete across price points. But as Leeny pointed out in response to one of the earlier questions, in the third quarter, we saw some strength in rate in the luxury tier, which suggests that maybe that's an ebb and flow as opposed to a multi-quarter trend. We do think there is a value-driven consumer that perhaps we were not capturing before, which is one of the reasons we're so enthusiastic about entering the mid-scale tier for the first time. We think that's a segment of the traveling public that perhaps we had been priced out of capturing fully in the past.

But beyond that, we continue to see strength really across the consumer. The one thing that's going to be really interesting to watch, I think I've mentioned in my opening remarks, there were within a percentage point of getting back to pre-pandemic levels of cross-border travel. And you'll recall, we had lots of good conversations back and forth in '19 about emerging middle classes in markets around the world and their appetite for cross-border travel. Much of the recovery we've seen in international markets has been on the shoulders of domestic demand.

And as international airlift recovers, one of the things we're watching closely is how strong is that middle class consumer and how strong has their appetite for cross-border travel recovered. I realize that's a bit of a rambling answer, but I mean, we're watching the strengths of the consumer around the world. And most of what we're seeing is either encouraging or wait and see, and I think wait and see applies to that cross-border question, but the early returns are encouraging.

[Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development at Marriott International]

The only thing I would add is that, if this trend around experiences versus goods, which we continue to see a really positive element of demand, so whether it is for music concerts or professional sports games or for youth athletics or all of those pieces of people's lives, that continues to be a great driver of demand for travel and really is quite global. So again, kind of a realization on the part of people that travel is a fundamental part of life and one that is very much appreciated.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

And, Bill, just to build on that point, as we talk to our credit card partners who obviously have rich consumer spending data, the trend that Leeny just described was much more prevalent in the younger generations pre-pandemic. When you look at current credit card spending data, it appears that that's a trend that really spans generations now, which is obviously great news for our business.

[Bill Crow, Analyst at Raymond James]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

[Conor Cunningham, Analyst at Melius Research]

Hi, everyone. Thank you. I just wanted to talk a little bit about your expectation for a recovery in large managed corporate. You talked about solid gains in lagging industries in the third quarter. Just curious on how your long-term expectation has changed on large manage? Like I realize that small and medium has been quite strong, but is a full recovery in large manage still possible at this point? Thank you.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Yeah. So we've had a version of this conversation in the past. It often starts with a question, do you think business travel is permanently impaired? And I'll give you a version of the answer I've given in the past, which is I absolutely don't think travel is permanently impaired. I just think it's going to look a little different. The small and medium, we've talked about at Indecipherable] that has been recovered now for a number of quarters and continues to show strength. There are a number of factors that are impacting some of the big corporates, whether that be concerns they have about macroeconomic conditions, whether that be sustainability goals that they set for themselves. Whatever it might be, it is having some impact on the pace at which their travel volumes recover. But we're seeing offsets to that impact on the strengths that you heard Leeny describe in group. We're also seeing offsets in the amount of blended travel that's driving for instance the extraordinary recovery we saw on Sundays and Thursdays. And so I think that the day of the week looks a little different, the segments look a little different, but the overall volumes are quite encouraging.

[Conor Cunningham, Analyst at Melius Research]

Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Meredith Jensen with HSBC.

[Meredith Jensen, Analyst at HSBC]

Good morning. I was wondering if you could discuss a little bit about partnerships like Rappi? And if that kind of collaboration might be a model for additional partnerships that we'll see going forward? And any color you could give to that and how that might compare to others? Thanks.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Yeah, great question. The short answer is I hope so. Bonvoy is such an extraordinarily powerful platform for us. It's a platform that strengthens the connectivity to our guests, ties together the breadth of our brand portfolio and partnerships like Rappi give us greater stickiness with the platform and allow us to connect more deeply in, in the case of Rappi in markets like Latin America. They have to make sense for both sides to be obvious, but Bonvoy gives us a terrific opportunity to explore, create and take advantage of those sorts of partnerships. And so we will absolutely continue to look for those sorts of opportunities.

[Meredith Jensen, Analyst at HSBC]

Great. Thank you.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Welcome.

[Operator]

Thank you. At this time, we have no further questions in queue. I'll now turn the call back over to Tony Capuano to close this out. Please go ahead.

[Anthony Capuano, President and Chief Executive Officer at Marriott International]

Great. Well, thank you again for all your interest and great questions this morning. We appreciate your continued interest in Marriott and look forward to seeing you on the road. Have a great afternoon.

[Operator]

[Operator Closing Remarks]