What is Roth Capital's Forecast for Progressive Q3 Earnings?

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR - Free Report) - Equities researchers at Roth Capital upped their Q3 2025 earnings estimates for shares of Progressive in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday, July 17th. Roth Capital analyst H. Fong now forecasts that the insurance provider will post earnings per share of $3.98 for the quarter, up from their prior forecast of $3.73. The consensus estimate for Progressive's current full-year earnings is $14.68 per share. Roth Capital also issued estimates for Progressive's Q4 2025 earnings at $4.18 EPS, FY2025 earnings at $17.70 EPS, Q1 2026 earnings at $3.92 EPS and Q3 2026 earnings at $4.03 EPS.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, July 16th. The insurance provider reported $4.88 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $4.43 by $0.45. Progressive had a net margin of 12.66% and a return on equity of 35.37%. The firm had revenue of $20.08 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $20.39 billion. During the same quarter last year, the business earned $2.48 EPS. The company's revenue was up 12.1% compared to the same quarter last year.

Other analysts also recently issued research reports about the stock. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reduced their price target on shares of Progressive from $290.00 to $268.00 and set a "market perform" rating for the company in a research report on Thursday. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of Progressive from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lifted their price target on shares of Progressive from $267.00 to $287.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research report on Tuesday, April 8th. Evercore ISI downgraded shares of Progressive from an "outperform" rating to an "in-line" rating and set a $275.00 price target for the company. in a research report on Thursday. Finally, UBS Group reduced their price target on shares of Progressive from $291.00 to $280.00 and set a "neutral" rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, July 9th. Nine equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and nine have given a buy rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $287.63.

Progressive Trading Down 0.3%

Shares of NYSE:PGR traded down $0.79 during mid-day trading on Friday, hitting $246.48. The company had a trading volume of 2,966,465 shares, compared to its average volume of 2,838,708. The firm has a fifty day moving average price of $267.67 and a 200 day moving average price of $265.73. The company has a market capitalization of $144.49 billion, a PE ratio of 13.89, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.51 and a beta of 0.37. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, a current ratio of 0.34 and a quick ratio of 0.29. Progressive has a one year low of $208.13 and a one year high of $292.99.

Progressive Announces Dividend

The company also recently disclosed a dividend, which was paid on Friday, July 11th. Investors of record on Friday, July 4th were paid a $0.10 dividend. This represents a yield of 0.15%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Thursday, July 3rd. Progressive's dividend payout ratio is currently 2.25%.

Insider Activity

In other news, Director Stuart B. Burgdoerfer sold 3,681 shares of the company's stock in a transaction dated Friday, June 20th. The stock was sold at an average price of $260.43, for a total transaction of $958,642.83. Following the sale, the director directly owned 12,217 shares in the company, valued at $3,181,673.31. This represents a 23.15% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. Also, Director Dyke Kahina Van sold 2,490 shares of the company's stock in a transaction dated Thursday, May 22nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $277.67, for a total value of $691,398.30. Following the sale, the director owned 12,429 shares in the company, valued at approximately $3,451,160.43. This represents a 16.69% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Over the last 90 days, insiders sold 42,705 shares of company stock valued at $11,450,948. 0.34% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Vanguard Group Inc. grew its position in Progressive by 1.2% during the first quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 54,022,956 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $15,289,037,000 after acquiring an additional 622,590 shares during the last quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC boosted its stake in shares of Progressive by 1.3% during the fourth quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 14,615,430 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $3,498,363,000 after purchasing an additional 189,638 shares during the period. GQG Partners LLC boosted its stake in shares of Progressive by 61.4% during the first quarter. GQG Partners LLC now owns 8,346,133 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $2,362,039,000 after purchasing an additional 3,174,632 shares during the period. Alliancebernstein L.P. boosted its stake in shares of Progressive by 15.2% during the first quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. now owns 8,263,157 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $2,338,556,000 after purchasing an additional 1,091,828 shares during the period. Finally, Norges Bank purchased a new stake in shares of Progressive during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $1,843,045,000. 85.34% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

About Progressive

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property.