Analysis: An outline is emerging of the US offer to Iran in their high-stakes nuclear negotiations

Key Points

• The U.S. proposal reportedly would let Iran enrich uranium up to 3% through an international consortium on a Gulf island in exchange for lifting some sanctions.
• Details of a consortium with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar were confirmed by Axios and even cited by Iran’s state broadcaster, hinting hard-liners know key elements of the U.S. offer.
• Failure to strike a deal could trigger heightened regional tensions, potential airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites or Iran’s exit from UN watchdog oversight, with the snapback of UN sanctions looming in October.
• Five negotiation rounds in Muscat and Rome have been held, with a sixth possible after the Eid al-Adha holiday, but negotiators face a ticking clock as Iran nears weapons-grade enrichment.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The outline of the U.S. offer to Iran in their high-stakes negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program is starting to become clearer — but whether any deal is on the horizon remains as cloudy as ever.

Reaching a deal is one of the several diplomatic priorities being juggled by U.S. President Donald Trump and his trusted friend and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. An accord could see the United States lift some of its crushing economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for it drastically limiting or ending its enrichment of uranium.

But a failure to get a deal could see tensions further spike in a Middle East on edge over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.

Iran's economy, long ailing, could enter a free fall that could worsen the simmering unrest at home. Israel or the U.S. might carry out long-threatened airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. And Tehran may decide to fully end its cooperation with the United Nations' nuclear watchdog and rush toward a bomb.

That makes piecing together the U.S. offer that much more important as the Iranians weigh their response after five rounds of negotiations in Muscat, Oman, and Rome.

Possible deal details emerge

A report by the news website Axios outlined details of the American proposal, the details of which a U.S. official separately confirmed, include a possible nuclear consortium enriching uranium for Iran and surrounding nations. Whether Iran would have to entirely give up its enrichment program remains unclear, as Axios reported that Iran would be able to enrich uranium up to 3% purity for some time.

Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, negotiated under then President Barack Obama, allowed Iran to enrich to 3.67% — enough to fuel a nuclear power plant but far below the threshold of 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium. Iran now enriches up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels.

U.S. officials all the way up to Trump repeatedly have said that Iran would have to give up enrichment entirely.

The English-language arm of Iranian state television broadcaster Press TV on Tuesday published an extended article including details from the Axios report. Iranian state television long has been controlled by hard-liners within the country’s theocracy. Press TV extensively repeating those details suggests that either they are included in the American proposal or they could be elements within it welcomed by hard-liners within the government.

Iranian media largely have avoided original reporting on the negotiations, without explanation.

Iran's reaction

The idea of a consortium enriching uranium for Iran and other nations in the Middle East also have come up in comments by other Iranian officials. Abolfazl Zohrehvand, a member of Iran's powerful parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy, said that he understood that one of the American proposals included the full dismantlement of the country's nuclear program in a consortium-style deal.

The Americans will "make a consortium with Saudi Arabia, the (United Arab) Emirates and Qatar ... on an island to keep it under U.S. control,” Zohrehvand told the Iranian news website Entekhab. “Iran could have a certain amount of stake in the consortium, but enrichment would not take place in Iran.”

Zohrehvand didn't elaborate on which “island" would host the site. However, the Persian Gulf has multiple islands. The UAE already has a nuclear power plant, while Saudi Arabia is pursuing its own program. Qatar has said that it's exploring small nuclear reactors. A consortium could allow low-enriched uranium to be supplied to all those countries, while lowering the risk of proliferation by having countries run their own centrifuges.

While a consortium deal has been discussed in the past, it has fallen through previously. Now, however, the Gulf Arab states largely have reached a detente with Iran after years of tensions following Trump unilaterally withdrawing the U.S. in 2018 from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.

Meanwhile, Fereidoun Abbasi, a former head of the civilian Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, suggested on Iranian state television that one of Iran's disputed islands with the UAE could be a site for the project. Iran, under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, seized three islands in the Persian Gulf in 1971 as British troops withdrew just before the formation of the Emirates, a federation of seven sheikhdoms home to Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

“What do we need the U.S. for?” Abbasi asked. "We have the know-how.”

What happens next

Iran likely will respond to the American offer in the coming days, possibly through Oman, which has been mediating in the talks. There also could be a sixth round of negotiations between the countries, though a time and location for them have yet to be announced.

This coming weekend is the Eid al-Adha holiday that marks the end of Islam's Hajj pilgrimage, meaning talks likely wouldn't happen until sometime next week at the earliest.

But the pressure is on. Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium could allow it to build multiple nuclear weapons, should Tehran choose to pursue the bomb. Western nations may pursue a censure of Iran at the Board of Governors at the International Atomic Energy Agency — which could see them ultimately invoke the so-called snapback of U.N. sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The authority to reestablish those sanctions by the complaint of any member of the original 2015 nuclear deal expires in October.

“There is still time for negotiating an agreement that reduces Iran’s proliferation risk. But that time is short,” wrote Kelsey Davenport, the director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.

“Given that Iran is sitting on the threshold of nuclear weapons and officials are openly debating the security value of a nuclear deterrent, any escalatory spiral could kill the negotiating process and increase the risk of conflict.”

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Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, and Matthew Lee in Washington, contributed to this report.

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EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Middle East and wider world since joining the AP in 2006.