Hit by Trump trade wars, U.S. economy falls 0.2% in first quarter, an upgrade from initial estimate

Key Points

• The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.2% annualized rate in Q1, marking its first contraction in three years as trade wars disrupted business and reflecting a slight upward revision from the initial estimate.
• A surge in imports—up 42.6%, the fastest since Q3 2020—by firms front‐loading before tariffs wiped out more than 5 percentage points of GDP growth.
• Consumer spending also slowed sharply, further dragging on the economy’s output.
• The import-driven drag is unlikely to recur in Q2, and the final GDP revision will be released on June 26 as the second of three estimates.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.2% annual pace from January through March, the first drop in three years, as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the government said Thursday in a slight upgrade of its initial estimate.

First-quarter growth was brought down by a surge in imports as companies in the United States hurried to bring in foreign goods before the president imposed massive import taxes.

The January-March drop in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — reversed a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2024. Imports grew at a 42.6% pace, fastest since third-quarter 2020, and shaved more than 5 percentage points off GDP growth. Consumer spending also slowed sharply.

And federal government spending fell at a 4.6% annual pace, the biggest drop in three years.

Trade deficits reduce GDP. But that’s mainly a matter of mathematics. GDP is supposed to count only what’s produced domestically. So imports — which the government counts as consumer spending in the GDP report when you buy, say, Costa Rican coffee — have to be subtracted out to keep them from artificially inflating domestic production.

The first-quarter import surge likely won’t be repeated in the April-June quarter and therefore shouldn’t weigh on GDP.

From January through March, business investment surged 24.4%. An increase in inventories — as businesses stocked up ahead of the tariffs — added more than 2.6 percentage points to first-quarter GDP growth.

A category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength rose at a 2.5% annual rate from January through March, down from 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 but still solid. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending.

Trump's tariffs have added considerable uncertainty to the economic outlook. He has imposed 10% tariffs on almost every country on earth in addition to levies on steel, aluminum and autos. A federal court on Wednesday blocked the 10% tariffs as well as specific taxes on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese imports, saying the president had overstepped his authority.

Thursday’s report was the second of three Commerce Department estimates of first-quarter GDP. The final version arrives June 26.