Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers in Record Numbers. Here's What It Means for Home Prices.

Key Points

• Home sellers now outnumber buyers by 33.7% in April, the largest gap since 2013, signaling a clear shift to a buyer’s market.
• In April, 31 of the 50 most populous metros were buyer’s markets, led by Miami where sellers exceed buyers by 197%, with Austin, Phoenix and Nashville also favoring buyers.
• Despite the surge in sellers, Redfin forecasts only a 1% decline in home prices by end-2025, noting prices have risen for 22 straight months and median April prices climbed 1.8% year-over-year to $414,000.
• High mortgage rates—averaging 6.94% for a 30-year fixed loan—remain more than double pandemic lows, adding to the elevated cost of homeownership.

Home sellers now substantially outnumber home buyers in the U.S., indicating a shift to a buyer's market, according to an analysis released on Thursday by real estate brokerage Redfin. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 33.7% in April, representing a gap of 490,041 people — the largest difference since Redfin began compiling this data in 2013.

Redfin estimates that there were approximately 1.9 million home sellers and 1.5 million homebuyers in the U.S. in April. This marks the highest number of home sellers since March 2020.

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"At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers by this large of a number or percentage," the analysis states. A year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by a smaller 6.5%.

Redfin estimates that 31 of the 50 most populated metropolitan areas are buyer's markets, where sellers outnumbered buyers by at least 10% in April. The biggest buyer's market in the U.S. is Miami, Florida, where there are 197% more sellers than buyers with a median home sale price of $574,696. Other buyers' markets include Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and Nashville, Tennessee. In New York's tony Hamptons, summer rentals are down 30% from the same time in previous years.

Still, Redfin predicts that home prices will only drop 1% year-over-year by the end of 2025 because "it's actually very hard for home prices to fall, unless sellers have to sell," Redfin's Head of Economics Research, Chen Zhao, told CNN.

Home prices have recently risen for the 22nd consecutive month. According to data released last week from the National Association of Realtors, median home sales prices rose 1.8% year-over-year last month to $414,000. The Northeast and Midwest reported price increases while the South and West saw price decreases. Meanwhile, the number of home sales dropped 0.5% from March to April.

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Mortgage rates are also elevated, contributing to the overall high cost of owning a home. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.94% at the time of writing, according to Bankrate, more than double the record-low 2.65% reached during the pandemic in January 2021.

Where Is It Still a Seller's Market?

The strongest seller's market was Newark, New Jersey, with an estimated 5,200 sellers and nearly 10,000 buyers in April.

Home prices soared in the area last month, with the city's median home sale price rising 12.2% from a year prior to reach $622,545.

Other sellers' markets include Nassau County, NY; New Brunswick, New Jersey; and Providence, Rhode Island.

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