Oil rises and US stock futures, Asian shares slip after US strike on Iran nuclear sites

Key Points

• The price of Brent crude jumped 3.3% to $79.60 a barrel and U.S. crude rose 3.1% to $76.16 after the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites.
• Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones slipped 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, with mild treasury yield declines suggesting markets are taking the move in stride.
• Traders fear a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely disrupt global oil flows, though most analysts say Iran is unlikely to blockade the route it depends on for its own exports.
• Analyst views diverge: some expect oil prices to settle back, while others warn a Hormuz shutdown could push prices to $120–$130 a barrel and strain the global economy.

NEW YORK (AP) — The price of oil rose and U.S. stock futures fell as global markets react to the U.S. strike against nuclear targets in Iran.

The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose 2.6% to $79 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 2.6% to $75.76 a barrel.

On Saturday, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian nuclear and military sites, further increasing the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran.

Futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%. Treasury yields were little changed. The modest moves indicate markets are taking the latest development in stride.

That was evident in early Asian trading. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.6%. Other major regional markets also logged moderate declines.

The conflict, which began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13, has sent oil prices yo-yoing, which has in turn caused see-saw moves for the U.S. stock market, because of rising and ebbing fears that the war could disrupt the global flow of crude. Iran is a major producer of oil and also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s crude passes.

“The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,” Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary.

An Iran retaliation that included closing off the waterway would be technically difficult to pull off but traders are afraid Iran could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without U.S. Navy escorts

Some analysts think Iran is unlikely to close down the waterway because the country uses it to transport its own crude, mostly to China, and oil is a major revenue source for the regime.

“It’s a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,” said Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co. "It’s not probable.”

Kloza thinks oil futures will ease back down after initial fears blow over.

Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed, writing in a report that Tehran leaders would likely hold back.

“They aren’t crazy,” he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. “The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.”

Other experts aren’t so sure.

Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn't be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons.

“If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,” said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways.

“It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates.”

In Asian trading early Monday, Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.5% while the Kospi in South Korea lost 1%. Both Taiwan and South Korea rely heavily on oil imported through the Strait of Hormuz.

Australia's S&P/ASX fell 0.7% and the benchmark in New Zealand lost 0.5%.