Stanley Black & Decker Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 1, 2022

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the 4th Quarter and Fiscal Year 2021 Stanley Black and Decker Inc. Earnings Conference Call. My name is Shannon, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session.

Operator

Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Dennis Lang. Mr. Lang, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us Stanley Black Conductor's 2021 Q4 and full year conference call. On the call, in addition to myself, is Jim Laree, CEO Don Allen, President and CFO. And our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, And a supplemental presentation, which we'll refer to during the call, are available on the IR section of our website. A replay of this morning's Call will also be available beginning at 11 am today.

Speaker 1

The replay number and the access code are in our press release. This morning, Jim and Don will review our And as we normally do, we will be making some forward looking statements during the call based on our current views. Such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate, And as such, they involve risk and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that the actual results may materially differ from any forward looking statements

Speaker 2

that we

Speaker 1

might make today. We direct you to the cautionary statements in the 8 ks that we filed with our press release and in our most recent 'thirty four Act filing. I'll now turn the call over to our CEO, Jim Rhodes.

Speaker 3

Good morning, and thank you, Dennis. As you saw from our press release, we delivered a record year in 2021 For revenue, organic growth and EPS, we benefited from extraordinarily strong customer demand, which continues For our innovative products and portfolio of brands, both of which underpin and support our position as the world's number one tool company. I want to thank our colleagues across the globe for their unwavering commitment to serve our customers with the highest quality products as well as for their outstanding effort in helping to deliver this Record setting performance amidst the confluence of COVID era challenges related to supply chain inflation, other external factors. And during the year, we took several significant strategic actions to optimize our business portfolio, completing 2 outdoor power equipment Acquisitions adding $3,000,000,000 of revenue as well as the announced divestiture of our Electronic Security business For 16 times EBITDA, sharpening our focus on tools, outdoor and industrial. These transactions are reshaping our portfolio into A faster growing more profitable one with lots of runway to both support and benefit from the ESG movement as well.

Speaker 3

This portfolio will also benefit from important societal trends including household formation, increased consumer nesting with focus on the home and garden, electrification and infrastructure investment. In addition, This month, we plan to begin the return of $4,000,000,000 of capital to our shareholders through our previously announced Share repurchase program, including as much as $2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 in the Q1 of 2022. We believe these transactions, The acquisitions, the divestiture and our substantial repurchase will result in significant value creation for investors in the short, medium And long term. To summarize our 2021 performance, our revenues were $15,600,000,000 Up 20%, driven by a record 17% organic growth with all businesses contributing. Our total company operating margin rate for the year was 13.9%, down versus prior year due to the growing cost inflation and supply chain challenges that emerged As the year progressed, as we chose to take the necessary steps to deliver for our customers, we see this core margin rate as a temporary trough Given that we expect our continued 2021, 2022 pricing actions will be sufficient To fully offset the $1,400,000,000 of cost growth associated with inflation and increased cost to serve during the same 2 year time period.

Speaker 3

Full year 2021 adjusted EPS was $10.48 a 30% increase versus 2020. And for the year ahead, we have a proactive plan and approach that is focused on execution, growth, margin improvement and strong cash flow. Our teams are focused on leveraging our operating model and execution principles that have allowed us to deliver consistent Strong revenue and EPS growth over many years including in 2021. Although we were pleased with the total year revenue And EPS performance, the 4th quarter was challenging with supply chain and inflationary impacts, which impacted working capital. We strategically prioritized building additional inventory in 2021 to capture the strong demand.

Speaker 3

And in addition, we experienced the impacts from the clogged supply chain, which intensified as the year progressed As component shortages, shipping delays and inflation drove inventory levels even higher. Accordingly, free cash flow for the year was $144,000,000 reflects a $1,800,000,000 increase in inventory. Suffice it to say this working capital increase was higher than anticipated, A necessary but partially temporary investment, which will reverse by at least $500,000,000 this year, Converting working capital back to a cash generator during the year. Our team has a long history Driving working capital turns improvement and asset efficiency with our SPD operating model. We have comprehensive enterprise wide plans In place to ensure we serve our customers while also delivering strong cash flow in 2022 and beyond.

Speaker 3

Looking specifically at the 4th quarter, Revenue was up 2% to $4,100,000,000 with 5 points of price, 6 points from acquisitions. Volume was down 8% Due to promotional shipment timing in 2020 and was impacted by logistical supply chain challenges as well. Overall, we remain confident in our multiyear Growth and margin expansion plans, there are several positive secular demand trends that are benefiting our businesses. We remain bullish on construction, DIY as well as gradual recoveries in the automotive and aerospace OEM markets. We've developed an array of growth catalysts, including product e commerce and electrification to position our businesses to capture this opportunity, and we are continuing to focus on innovation, Manufacturing automation, capacity expansion and our logistics capabilities to meet the elevated demand in the near term And support strong sustainable growth over the medium and long term.

Speaker 3

In this regard, we believe that we are well positioned in 2022 With a target of 7% to 8% organic growth, total revenue growth aggregating over $4,000,000,000 adjusted EPS growth of 15% to 19% and $2,000,000,000 of free cash flow. As noted, our tools and outdoor businesses Enjoyed high demand levels across our global markets and channels. And as we think about some of the causal factors in North America, many of the traditional drivers of housing And repair, remodel activity are trending in a positive direction. Household formation driven by millennial first time home purchasers As well as the urban exodus supports strong housing demand and the low levels of existing housing inventory will continue to be a catalyst for new residential Construction. Home prices have appreciated building home equity, which generally supports home reinvestment growth through repair and remodel activity.

Speaker 3

In recent years, the consumer mindset and behavior patterns regarding home and garden have shifted as more time is spent in these environments. Homebase for many has grown in importance, serving multiple purposes, including as a sanctuary, as a locus for increased indooroutdoor activities and as a workspace for more permanent remote and hybrid workers. These behavioral shifts Are driving robust project activity for both contractors and DIYers, not only in the U. S, but globally as well. Leading indicators for non resi construction such as ABI and Dodge rebounded during much of 2021 and have remained positive as construction has continued to recover.

Speaker 3

Industrial production is returning to pre pandemic levels as manufacturers look to replenish their supply chains. The growth momentum that we built in 2021 in our industrial fastener and attachment tools businesses is expected to continue In 2022, and we expect to benefit from the recently signed $1,200,000,000,000 U. S. Infrastructure bill as well. And lastly, we are cautiously optimistic that the cyclical recovery in auto and aero will begin to emerge in 2022, A $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 multiyear revenue growth opportunity for industrial.

Speaker 3

And so while there's much to be excited about within our core markets, We will carefully watch for any impacts from a higher interest rate environment or changes in the elasticity of demand following price increases and react accordingly if things change. To keep our market and brand vitality fresh, we continue to invest selectively And growth catalysts, including innovation, e commerce and electrification. These will position us for sustained share gains in the future. These catalysts capitalize on key global trends many of which are expected to continue in the coming years. Across the board, we have competitive strategic differentiators that make us The world's leading tool company, our iconic brands, DEWALT, Craftsman, STANLEY, STANLEY FATMAX and BLACK and DECKER.

Speaker 3

Our category depth, Channel development and operations excellence are coupled with a track record and commitment to market leading innovation. Our new PowerStack battery Launched in December is enjoying an excellent market reception and has the potential for several $100,000,000 of organic growth In 2022, Popular Science called it the best cordless power tool battery we've ever used. With our sharpened focus and increased innovation investments, our product development plans are robust As we look to nearly double the number of professional power tool products we offer over the next 3 years. The rapid acceleration And the shift of demand to e commerce has continued and we believe that we have at least twice the revenue in this channel as our next closest competitor. In 2021, we continue to enjoy strong double digit growth in e commerce and it now represents a $2,500,000,000 channel for us Globally and it's approaching 20% of our tool business revenue.

Speaker 3

The increased societal focus on ESG and climate and what that means for Present a very attractive multiyear opportunity for outdoor power equipment. Our existing business grew almost 40% in 2021 as we continue to drive the conversion of handheld units and push mowers to cordless electric. With the addition of MTD and Xcel in late 2021, we have assembled a $4,000,000,000 outdoor power which will lead the conversion of larger equipment such as riders and 0 turns to electric and autonomous as well. We have the ability to capitalize on the electrification of automotive as well through engineered fastening. This move from Internal combustion to plug in hybrid and EV platforms ultimately results in a 3 to 6 times increase in Stanley Black and Decker dollar content per vehicle Produced by OEMs.

Speaker 3

We are also focused on the other growth and revenue synergy opportunities in outdoor Such as global channel expansion and brand development. We have a compelling opportunity to serve the professional customer segment By developing gas and electric offerings under the DEWALT brand among others. We now have access to more than 2,500 independent equipment dealers across the U. S. That is compelling as it is sized similarly to the retail channel, but comes with historically higher profitability.

Speaker 3

Finally, we have an opportunity in the $4,000,000,000 high margin parts and service segment as we build our presence, serve our customers. I'm excited to share That we are updating our expectations for 2022 EPS contribution from these outdoor acquisitions. MTD had a strong finish in 2021 and was able to Our initial plan for both revenue and margin. They also remain on track with their margin improvement trajectory as they did a nice job in 2021 implementing price to counter inflation and are continuing to do that in 2022. With a higher 2021 base In improved forward outlook, we now expect our outdoor acquisitions to contribute $0.85 of EPS in 2022.

Speaker 3

This represents a $0.20 improvement and a $0.60 year over year tailwind for EPS growth. As I sum up my section today, I'm excited by the portfolio changes we effected in 2021. The establishment of a high potential outdoor platform, the security business divestiture And a commitment to repurchase $4,000,000,000 in 2022 all set the stage for value creation this year and beyond. With that, I will turn it over to Don Allen, who will provide some additional insights. Don?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. As Jim mentioned, we are focused on serving robust demand and investing in our supply chain to position us for sustained growth. We took multiple actions in 2021 to navigate the global supply chain and position the business to have the capacity, Sourcing, operational efficiency and resilience to serve our customers and deliver significant growth in revenue and cash flow In 2022 and beyond. These key investments include adding capacity consistent with our make where we sell strategy, Co investing with strategic sourcing partners with a focus on batteries and semiconductors and investing in automation solutions to support productivity, Labor efficiency and competitive costs. Our capacity additions are on track and we have opened 2 new power tool plants And one new hand tool facility in North America, which are now ramping up.

Speaker 4

These new manufacturing plants will enable shorter lead times And be accompanied by parallel regional development of our supply chain base over time, enhancing local sourcing and speed to market. As it relates to strategic sourcing, we have added new battery suppliers and made co investments with key partners that have put us in a great position as we enter 2022. We have the necessary battery supply and capacity to support significant growth in tools and to fuel our electrification strategy in outdoor. The supply environment remains tight for semiconductors and electronic components. This plus the elongated global supply chain, which significantly increased inventory in transit impacted our ability to generate more volume in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 4

Semiconductor shortages have been a pain point for many global industrials and we have been investing to improve supply to enable significant tools growth. For example, adding new Tier 2 and 3 suppliers for chips, co investing with Tier 1 suppliers to improve their capacity And taking actions to lower lead times across our supply base. As mentioned in October, we expect semiconductor supply to improve in Q2 versus current levels. Based on current commitments from our semiconductor suppliers, we expect a 20% to 30% increase in chips in Q2 versus the current run rate. In summary, we have been working to alleviate constraints on many key components and are now down to the last critical few, Which will unlock more supply as we move into the Q2.

Speaker 4

We are also advancing our Industry 4.0 capabilities, Driving automation throughout our manufacturing environment. This will make our U. S. Manufacturing plants more competitive as well as improve productivity in factories across the globe. We just completed a significant flexible automation assembly line in our major U.

Speaker 4

S. Power tool plant. It is up and running. Last year, we also made significant investments in inventory to help meet the outsized demand in the tools business. Excluding the consolidation impact from acquisitions, we increased our core inventory position by $1,800,000,000 as compared to year end 2020.

Speaker 4

2 thirds of this increase is composed of inputs, Work in progress or goods in transit that will work their way through our supply chain to support growth and improve fill rates with our customers. As a result, 4th quarter free cash flow was $175,000,000 which brings our year to date results to $144,000,000 Significantly below our prior expectation for 2021. The main driver of the deviation was related to the congestion of the global supply chain on working capital. Let me unpack this to provide some additional color. First, we ended up building more inventory and tools versus our expectation.

Speaker 4

This was primarily related to a combination of goods in transit expanding in the quarter as we experienced port and other logistical delays. The increased tools inventory is needed to serve existing and projected demand and therefore we believe we will sell through this incremental inventory during 2022. Secondly, we are holding on to inventory longer than we have historically, due to longer shipping and lead times, which has changed the relationship between inventory and payables. This dynamic also led to a deviation versus our October expectations. Finally, the MTD and Xcel inventory build ahead of the outdoor season was not in our forecast back in October due to the unknown timing of each of those closings.

Speaker 4

The global supply chain is dynamic as we all know and requires new intensity, focus to react to the changes as well as to be able to predict the interdependencies that may be may not be consistent with past experiences. We have a long history of using the SPD operating model to drive high asset efficiency, strong cash flow and superior cash flow return on investment. These processes and tools with some new enhancements will ensure we mitigate the temporary portion of the inventory increase and the correlated impact to accounts payable. We will do this while holding the appropriate levels of inventory and making CapEx investments to support the strategic growth initiatives you heard about earlier. We expect to drive working capital efficiency in 3 primary areas, which will increase supply chain predictability, Optimize inventory location and improve inventory turns from acquired businesses.

Speaker 4

One, opportunities will definitely arise As the semiconductor pressure alleviates in Q2 and the electronic component supply improves. 2, we built a dedicated team focused on lowering in transit inventory. This team will also focus on product SKU optimization We are also deploying the SPD operating model across our recent acquisitions to drive efficiency in all aspects of working capital. MTD and Xcel enter the portfolio around 3 turns and we have line of sight to improving that metric across a multiyear period. This management team has dealt with headwinds and temporary shifts in business conditions for 2 decades plus.

Speaker 4

And therefore, we are confident That we will improve our turns and believe the cash flow working capital benefit is at least a $500,000,000 opportunity, which is incorporated into our $2,000,000,000 cash flow commitment for 2022. In summary, our portfolio And supply chain actions from 2021 have put us in great shape for 2022 and beyond.

Speaker 3

I will now take a

Speaker 4

deeper dive into our business segment results for the Q4. Tools and Storage delivered 3% revenue growth as the acquisitions of MTD nExcel contributed 7% and price delivered 5 points. These factors were partially offset by a decline of 8% in volume And 1% from currency. Regional organic growth was 7% in the emerging markets with weaker performances in North America and Europe Due to 1, a tough comparable related to the prior year holiday shipping timing 2, the current year volume constraints caused by supply chain logistical challenge I previously mentioned. And 3, the anticipated Q4 semiconductor shortage as we discussed in October.

Speaker 4

Pricing actions delivered strong mid single digit growth in response to commodity inflation and higher costs to serve aligned with expectations. This was the most significant quarterly price benefit the Tools and Storage business has seen in modern history. The operating margin rate for the segment was 11.4%, down versus last year as pricing benefits were more than offset by inflation, Higher supply chain costs, growth investments and volume. As a reminder, the Q4 of 2021 as well as the Q1 of 2022 It's currently expected to be the peak of the inflation and supply chain cost headwinds and then these headwinds will begin to recede versus the prior year. This expected trend and headwinds combined with the pricing actions we completed in 2021, the additional price actions to completed and implemented in 2022 that I will touch on a little bit later in the call and the cost controls That we recently put in place will result in profitability rates trending back to normalized levels as we move through 2022 for Tools and Storage.

Speaker 4

End user demand strength remains persistent across all markets as the consumer reconnection with the home and garden, innovation and e commerce continue to drive growth. Our e commerce platforms grew over 30% in 2021. The innovation pipeline continues to be impressive with new product launches across the portfolio. In addition to an exciting line of new product introductions in 2022 within the DEWALT FlexVolt, Atomic and Extreme Power Tool platform And also across the construction, automotive and industrial end markets. Point of sale demand in U.

Speaker 4

S. Retail grew high single digits And channel inventory ended below historical levels. We saw strong professional driven demand in the commercial and industrial channels, Which grew in the Q4 and achieved 28% organic growth in

Speaker 2

the year.

Speaker 4

Now turning to the Tools and Storage SBUs. Power Tools delivered 20 percent organic growth in 2021, which was supported by the new and innovative product launches across Craftsman, DEWALT And Stanley FATMAX inclusive of DEWALT PowerStack, which is off to a fantastic start. Hand tools, accessories In storage achieved full year organic growth of 17%, inclusive of 26% international organic growth, Fueled by robust market demand and new product highlights including the Craftsman TradeStack and DEWALT TUF System Portable Storage Solutions as well as new additions to the DEWALT Elite Series Circular Saw Blades. Moving to outdoor products, this business grew 3% organically in the quarter, While the addition of MTD and Xcel added over $200,000,000 of revenue, the Outdoor team had a great 2021 achieving 40% organic growth Inclusive of share gain led by electrification. This came from new listings and innovations under the Black and Decker Craftsman and DEWALT brand.

Speaker 4

Our acquisitions also had strong innovation led organic growth for 2021 with new launches such as the redesigned Hutzler Fast Track 0 Turn Mower line for Commercial use and the 1st semi autonomous zero turn mower with Cub Cadet Sherpa. We are beginning the journey to integrate our acquisitions into a new $4,000,000,000 revenue strategic business unit and are making great strides towards becoming one team focused innovation, growth and capturing the cost and revenue synergies from these transactions. The collective efforts of our tools and outdoor teams Across the globe, we're unrelenting as they continue to navigate this dynamic operating environment. I want to acknowledge and thank the entire teams For your perseverance and dedication. Now shifting to industrial.

Speaker 4

Quarterly segment revenue declined 7% versus last year As the three points of price realization were more than offset by 9% volume and 1% currency. Operating margin was 9.3% down versus last year as the benefits from price and productivity were more than offset by commodity inflation And market driven volume declines in the higher margin automotive and aerospace fastener businesses Due to our customers primarily in those markets slowing their production. Looking further within the segment, Engineered Fastening organic revenues were down 9%, A strong general industrial growth of 12% was more than offset by aerospace market pressure and lower automotive OEM production, Which obviously resulted from the global semiconductor shortage. Our auto fastener business navigated customer production fluctuations In a dynamic market as they move through the year. Despite these external challenges, auto fasteners demonstrated 9 points of outperformance versus light vehicle production And the business successfully doubled its revenue tied to electric vehicle production.

Speaker 4

The business is exceptionally well positioned for the cyclical rebound in production And for the secular trend of electrification. Our industrial fastener business realized 12% organic growth in the quarter and exits the year with a healthy backlog, which is up nearly 50% versus 2020. It was satisfying to see the business achieve organic growth over 18% in 2021, Two times the global industrial production index. While aerospace continued to decline significantly versus prior year, we have started to see green shoots With revenues sequentially improving for 2 quarters in a row. This business is focused on capturing the coming rebound in production That will begin in 2022 and continue beyond that.

Speaker 4

Infrastructure organic revenues were up 3% as 18% growth in attachment tools It was largely offset by lower pipeline project activity in oil and gas. Momentum continues to build in the Attachment Tools market with strong demand from our OEM and independent dealer Generating orders that were up 59% versus the prior year and a backlog that is nearly 5 times year ending 2020 levels. To summarize our thoughts in industrial, we saw some pockets of strong growth combined with early stages of stabilization in the challenged markets I mentioned as we close 2020 And we are looking forward to leveraging the cyclical recovery and to capitalizing on the auto electrification trend over the next 2 to 3 years. Turning to the operating environment. We are actively engaged on multiple fronts to support margin recovery and believe headwinds have now stabilized.

Speaker 4

The 2022 carryover impact inclusive of currency is sized at nearly $800,000,000 From an input cost and transport rate perspective, We had assumed that the levels seen in the Q4 continue for all of 2022. This could be a second half opportunity if recent trends in However, with a continuing dynamic environment, we are not counting on that And we remain diligent on executing several actions to support margin recovery. We are taking more price actions in the Q1 to offset these headwinds. We are notifying our North American tools and outdoor customers this week about new price increases of 5% to 10% or more depending on the category. These actions are in addition to the 5 points of price already delivered, which underscores that the price environment today is very different from history.

Speaker 4

Our expectation is 100 percent coverage of inflation during this cycle. Our 2022 plan now calls for 6% to 7% price, which will be exceeding the carryover cost impact. These actions in aggregate will support sequential margin improvement in the coming quarters And year over year margin improvement in the back half of the year. In terms of when price cost turns positive, we still expect that To occur in the middle of the year as close to 90% of the $800,000,000 of headwinds are estimated to occur In the front half of twenty twenty two. Finally, as always, we continue to advance our margin resiliency initiatives And see a pathway to generate $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 of a 2022 opportunity.

Speaker 4

Now before diving into guidance, there's one point that I would like to mention. As a reminder from our release, this guidance does not include the commercial electronic And I will now turn the call over to Sharon for the Q3 of fiscal 2020. Thank you, Shannon. Moving to our client 22 guidance on Slide 11, we are planning for total revenue growth in the mid-20s, Inclusive of organic growth of 7% to 8% and adjusted earnings per share range of $12 up to $12.50 Or increasing approximately 15% to 19% versus 2021. On a GAAP basis, we expect the earnings per share range to be $10.10 up to $10.70 inclusive of various one time charges related to facility moves, deal and integration costs, Cost reduction and functional transformation initiatives.

Speaker 4

The current estimate for pre tax charges is approximately $380,000,000 From a segment perspective, total Tools and Storage organic growth is expected to be in high single digits supported by price, Core and breakthrough innovation, continued strong demand across our end markets and the improvement of our customer inventories. The Industrial segment is expected to achieve high single digit to low double digit organic growth driven by new products, pricing, Momentum in Industrial Fasteners and Attachment Tools and the beginning of a cyclical recovery in auto and aerospace. As it relates to the acquisitions, we believe they will contribute just over $3,000,000,000 in revenue in 2022, primarily from MTD and ExCel With about 60% of that revenue occurring in the front half. The team is building momentum and this will be an acquisitive growth driver in 2022, But more importantly, an organic growth driver for years to come. For the full year, it's still our expectation that Tools and Storage will have Strong year over year margin expansion on the core driven by strong second half improvement as I discussed earlier.

Speaker 4

Total segment margin will be down as our outdoor acquisitions enter the portfolio with high single digit profitability. Improving margins from the outdoor acquisitions is a focus in 2022 and of course beyond. We expect To improve these margins to low double digits in the 1 to 2 year timeframe and mid teens in the medium term. For industrial, the margin rate is expected to expand year over year, leveraging strong revenue growth, productivity and price. Shifting now to the right side of the page, I will outline the drivers of our year over year EPS growth at the midpoint.

Speaker 4

Our plan is to grow our core earnings base with added benefits from the MTD and Xcel acquisitions. As we discussed earlier, we are actively addressing the inflationary environment with a 6% to 7% pricing set of pricing actions That should allow us to more than fully recover the carryover impact from inflation and the elevated cost to serve, adding $1.20 up to $1.30 of EPS. The carryover impact of our growth investments in SG and A is a headwind of about $0.20 net of our recent cost containment actions. Our outdoor acquisitions are already building momentum and should generate $0.60 of year over year benefit ahead of our prior estimates. We also realized a $0.65 benefit from the 2022 impact of our $4,000,000,000 share repurchase program.

Speaker 4

This is partially offset by tax and other below the line items of $0.55 Our full year tax rate assumption is 10% and we are also planning for increased interest expense due to a higher rate environment and the financing needs of our strategic capital deployment. So in summary, we expect the business to deliver nearly $1.80 of EPS growth this year To achieve a midpoint of $12.25 of EPS. Now to cover what this means in terms of the Q1, Which is expected to be about approximately 13.5 percent of the full year adjusted EPS. We are planning for Tools to have a relatively flat organic growth And industrial to decline in the low single digits reflecting the tough comp in the automotive business. Acquisitions should contribute about $950,000,000 in revenue as the outdoor season kicks off.

Speaker 4

Price costs will still be a negative as we Experience a significant amount of our full year headwinds in the Q1. Total company margins should step up from the 4th quarter And in each successive quarter thereafter. We also intend to execute our $2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 of our previously announced 4,000,000,000 Dollar share repurchase program here in the Q1. As you think about the quarterly profile for 2022, consider the following factors. 1, 90 percent of our $800,000,000 headwinds occur in the first half of the year.

Speaker 4

2, the additional pricing I mentioned phase into the P and L during the first half. And 3, the share repurchase begins to occur in the middle of the first quarter. Therefore, we expect 60% of our annual EPS to be delivered in the second half. For the full year, we expect robust free cash flow generation $2,000,000,000 This plan considers continued investment in our supply chain, inventory optimization to serve our customers as well as the drawdown of at least $500,000,000 of our working capital as we previously discussed. We are confident in the steps we have taken And are continuing to take to navigate a dynamic supply environment and optimize our factories.

Speaker 4

The organization is focused on driving above market organic growth, Delivering on our price and cost control measures, successfully integrating MTD and Xcel into the portfolio and leveraging the SPD operating model to improve our working capital We expect executing on these actions as well as our $4,000,000,000 allocation to repurchase shares We'll deliver 15% to 19% adjusted earnings per share growth and a historic free cash flow performance in 2022. With that, I will now turn the call back over to Jim to conclude with a summary of our prepared remarks.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Don, for that immersion Into what was a very complicated or complex quarter with a lot of ins and outs in the portfolio and Lots of dynamics in the end markets and so on. So thanks for taking the time and really giving a very transparent view there. And so as you've seen and heard, we are focused on continuing to serve the robust demand in our markets. Our multi year runway for growth is compelling. We talked about adding $2,500,000,000 of growth in 2021 and then another $4,000,000,000 plus in 2022.

Speaker 3

Our EPS and revenue set records in last year, and we expect more of the same this year. So we're determined that free cash flow We'll return to record levels in 2022 as the working capital reverts back to a source of cash. And we're confident in our ability To execute in today's dynamic volatile environment, our proven track record of performance over many years supports this. Our 6 year revenue and EPS CAGRs Our 6% for revenue, 10% for EPS respectively and a new and improved portfolio and a great strategic setup for 2022 and beyond, We're focused on several tactical operational levers to ensure outstanding near term execution. First, we're leveraging our price productivity and cost control measures to support a margin rebound throughout the year.

Speaker 3

Don described that. We're well positioned to achieve price Covering the entire $1,400,000,000 of inflation and cost to serve for the 2 year period 2021, 2022, The unusual cost input increases have stabilized for now and we are monitoring trends closely to ensure that we respond to trend changes as they develop. We're investing in the supply chain to ensure that we have the necessary capacity and supply to fulfill the strong demand and support significant revenue growth This year and beyond, we're off to a good start integrating the Outdoor acquisitions, which are positioned to contribute EPS accretion Of $0.85 in total, dollars 0.65 year over year and $0.20 ahead of our initial expectations. We're driving working capital reductions, which we expect to translate to an impressive cash flow performance in 2022. And lastly, We're expecting to execute on our $4,000,000,000 share repurchase program very, very soon.

Speaker 3

So I'm confident in our collective ability to deliver another strong year in 2022 with outstanding potential for value creation. With that, Dennis, we are now ready for Q and A. Great.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Jim. Shannon, we can now open the call to Q and A, please. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. A lot of good detail in the slides. Maybe one point I wanted to hone in on was On the Tools volume side of things, I think it sounds like you're assuming that Tools volumes Organically at least down maybe mid high single digit in Q1 after backing out price, So not too different from the trend year on year in Q4. Just wanted to check that that's the case. And then maybe as you think about the balance of the year after Q1, there's clearly a lot going on with people trying to figure out the impact of interest rate increases.

Speaker 5

Maybe we start to see some volume headwind from Continuously rising prices. So how conservative do you think your tools volume guide is For the year, I think you're assuming volumes are maybe flattish or down a bit in tools for 2022 overall and down more than that in Q1.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think, Julian, that's a good assessment of where we think we are with the tools, and outdoor businesses From a core perspective and obviously on an organic basis. So we for the year, we're probably looking at relatively flat volume performance With a very strong price performance of 6% to 7%, so they're probably leading closer to 7%. The Q1 dynamic will be volume probably down 4 or 5 points in the Q1 and then improvement of that kind of modestly as the year goes on. No real big significant volume expectation in any given quarter at this stage.

Speaker 4

However, We do see that as an interesting opportunity. I mean, there is a lot of uncertainty to your point about where demand may go, what may happen based on all these inflationary pressures and Prices going into the marketplace. So we think we're well positioned by taking the approach we're taking on the price side. But we also see an opportunity that if demand is strong, we've adjusted our supply chain to be prepared for that. And in particular by Q2 on the semiconductor side.

Speaker 4

And so if demand is there, we'll be able to really Meet that demand and improve the fill rates of our customers as well

Speaker 3

as the inventory levels in their stores. Yes, the flattish volume is really more of a financial planning construct And it is an operational execution plan. So we are going for as much volume as makes sense And as much as double digit volume in terms of what we're programming to try to achieve. However, Given the uncertainty in the macro, given what remains to be seen in terms of price elasticity of demand for the products, We're trying to be financially conservative here so that if any of the types of things that I described become factors that we still have a financial plan That makes a lot of sense.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Good morning. Maybe to pick up on that point, right? You delivered what you delivered in 2021 With the semiconductor situation as it was, so Jim, I think you're then implying that With what we heard today on the call about semiconductors, there actually is an opportunity to kind of uncork more volume. I just wonder if that's Kind of the linchpin of the whole kind of volume debate in 2022 and if there are any other particular Really pinch points or bottlenecks that you need to work through.

Speaker 3

Yes, come April, I think we're going to be in a position to really Open up that well. So it really is a couple of months of constrained Production based on that and then whatever we get after that, we've got really good supply. Definitely enough to support double digit organic growth beyond that. And of course, the other Potential constraint, but it's not going to be an issue for us would be battery cells, and we've got that one Under control with investments that we've made in capacity with major battery suppliers. So We have the capability come April to open the spigot for volume and produce whatever The market demands.

Operator

Our next question comes from Markus Mittermeier with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi, good morning. Maybe another one on pricing from my The 6% to 7%. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit on the various go to market channels you have? Has anything changed in your ability to price with the Higher proportion of the online business, B2C or the addition of some of the other end markets that you're now going after, how has Pricing change to maybe what we know from the prior cycle.

Speaker 4

Well, I think, Marcus, the way to think about it is, There is really no cycle in history that you can really compare this to. I mean, maybe you could go back to the 70s and the inflationary periods back then, but The world clearly was much different and e commerce didn't even exist back in the 70s. So it's a very different timeframe. And so when you look at This situation where you're dealing with $1,400,000,000 of headwinds at Stanley Black and Decker, we put a significant amount of price in the market in 2021. We have not seen an impact to demand related to that in any of the channels that you referenced.

Speaker 4

We're putting more, as I mentioned, price increases In the market here in the Q1 of 2022, anywhere ranging from 5% to 10% depending on the product family or category, Some cases even higher than that if we see significant gaps versus our competitors or we see a situation where Particular product is being impacted more heavily by the commodity inflation headwinds. So, we'll watch this very closely. I mean, it's why we're taking this approach On the volume side, we're not being overly aggressive in forecasting where the volume might go, but we're prepared as Jim and I both mentioned To really pursue higher volume, but we have to watch the pricing impact very closely and see the elasticity impact, but it's different. It's a different cycle. This is not the typical cycle where you're just looking at maybe putting 3% to 4% price increase in the market to offset Your inflationary pressures, you're talking about something that's more above 10% in many cases.

Speaker 4

And if you look at our peers And other players in both the building products and industrial space, you're seeing the magnitude of those types of increases across the board and We believe that's the right approach at this stage. However, we also have to maintain the flexibility and watch this very closely day to day and week to week

Speaker 3

There's an existence theorem for this type of environment, not so much the supply constrained part of it, but the Highly inflationary environment in some of the developing markets. So for instance, Latin America, which often has massive Inflation that comes quickly and often is currency driven. But in those markets, Our history of being able to recover price is excellent. Our history of being able to stabilize margins at favorable rates is very good. And the continuation of organic growth and strong organic growth in those markets It's something that we've been able to sustain for a long period of time.

Speaker 3

So if this environment Sponsors anything like what we've seen in some of those types of situations, the demand continues. So we don't know as Don said it's uncharted territory, but we're ready for anything as Don said.

Operator

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 7

Good morning.

Speaker 8

So just a follow-up on the price discussion. Yes. I think Don, you mentioned maybe some potential upside from commodities as some of those roll off. How much of the price equation is really tied to Something surcharge related, where maybe you give some of that back or I guess maybe you said differently, what are the surcharges tied to In terms of like price benchmarking. And then I guess sort of related, how would you rate your price capture POS Relative to what you've seen out of peers, do you think you're ahead, behind, some aspect of the competitive environment would be helpful?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think the surcharge component is probably a couple of points of price that we put in place In the Q4, it was really more heavily tied to the cost to serve aspect. And so we had these, As we all experienced this really intense wave of price increases in logistical space transportation In the summer of 2021 and going into the fall and that surcharge is really in response to that. Those prices on container costs and other The costs have not really changed. They dipped down a little bit in the month of December, but then they pop back up to the previous levels in January.

Speaker 4

So I don't we don't really see any significant shifts in that particular area. And I think the supply chain could continue to be a little bit Challenging from a cost perspective for a portion of this year. What I was referring to is more on certain commodities are shifting In the last month or 2, where you're seeing steel pull back a little bit and a couple of other commodities as well. Right now that if those prices held, that could be a $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 opportunity for us Later in the year, so that's kind of the sense of the magnitude. It's not a massive move at this stage.

Speaker 4

If it continue to improve and obviously that number could get better. So we're not seeing shifts that have us concerned about the pricing actions we've taken nor the pricing actions we plan to take I'm here in the Q1. But again, that'll be something we closely monitor. And we also have to keep in mind that we It takes a while to get price actions into many of our customers and you saw that in 2021 play out. And so we're probably a 3 to 6 months lag Versus what you might see in some industrial channels versus the building product channels that we're more heavily weighted to.

Speaker 4

And as a result, you're probably going to have an upside tail on the back end of this as things start to change. And so that's just something to keep in mind as you think about price, where if you compare it to an industrial peer We may have had price much quicker in 2021 and price may move down sooner in 2022. The dynamic here will be different just because of what I Laid out related to the lag and how that really plays out in the building product space.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Good morning. You mentioned priselysisd now a couple of times. I'm just wondering if you've seen any signs of that. The POS is strong, but just wondering if you've seen any early signs of that.

Speaker 2

And it feels like you're prepared to trade lower volumes to higher price. Just want to make sure that's Okay. So my real question is could we just get a bit more definition on how we see the Tools and Storage margins Playing out through the year sequentially, it seems like it's starting up at comparable levels to what we saw in 4Q. How do we see that building up through the year? Thanks.

Speaker 3

I mean in a perfect world, Nigel, we would want to get our margins back to what they've been historically and we would want to grow With the market and then in excess of the market gaining share with our product development and our all the other growth catalysts that we have, That's what we're aiming to do. Now I've said I've mentioned price elasticity because it's a reality Of any pricing environment is such that at some point, there is a change in the consumer's willingness to purchase something at a given price, and there's a lot of different economic factors that consumers are dealing with right now. And so that's just an unknown and it's not something that we're prepared we're not necessarily prepared to trade Volume, let me put it this way. We're not necessarily prepared to trade market share for price. And we will continue to grow our market share.

Speaker 3

And so we just need to continue to monitor price elasticity, competitive dynamics, all those different things that one does when one manages in an environment like this.

Speaker 4

And you mentioned margins and profitability in Tools, Nigel. And so as you saw, we had 11.4% in the 4th quarter Operating margin for the Tools and Outdoor segment. I think the Q1 will be kind of in that ballpark, maybe a little bit better than that number. And you see a fairly substantial jump in Q2 and in the back half, we're getting pretty close to that 18% number, In particular in the Q4. So it's going to be a gradual improvement in operating margin rates with a pretty sluggish start in the first Because of the fact as I mentioned, the Q4 of 2021 and the Q1 of 2022 It's really the peak periods for the headwinds.

Speaker 4

And so you're seeing pretty substantial, headwinds in both those quarters and then they start to recede Going forward after that. So that's just something to keep in mind as you factor in your modeling.

Operator

Our Our next question comes from Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thanks for taking my question. Just to make sure, and apologies if we're kind of beating a dead horse here, but in terms of where you were Last on last quarter's earnings call, we're expecting, I believe, mid single digit volume growth. And now for Tools and Storage, Flattish. I just want to kind of break down the differences between then and now in terms of the expectations. How much is coming from maybe supply chain constraints, which I think you said you expect to more fully address In the Q2 going forward versus conservatism from the price increases and that impact on Volume in terms of demand elasticity.

Speaker 7

Just trying to understand where the differences come from and if there's any other Elements that's driving that change in terms of the end market demand for instance. And then secondly, on the price increases of 6% to 7% company wide, If that is we could think about that kind of a similar impact in terms of against tools and outdoor And industrial if it's a similar type of allocation.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Yes. So Michael, I would say that as you think about What we said in October, obviously, we weren't providing guidance. We were just kind of giving a high level framework. And but as we progressed through the Q4 and We began to finalize and create our guidance for the full year here in January, I guess now February.

Speaker 4

We really recognize that there was a need for higher levels of price actions, which is why we're pursuing those actions here In the Q1 of 2022, 5% does not get us to where our margins should be along the lines that Jim described and I described a few minutes ago. And so we really believe we need to take that approach and that is the right approach. On the volume side, I would say that there's a little bit of the supply constraint Dragging over into Q1, for sure. And so we had an expectation of a little bit better performance in Q1 back in October, But given the dynamics that played out during the especially November, December, we think the more prudent view is the approach we're taking With the tools and storage organic growth in Q1. And then your question on the 6% to 7%, was that more about Dennis, more about the split between tools and outdoor?

Speaker 1

Yes, so both segments. No, Tools and Industrial.

Speaker 4

Tools and Industrial. Yes, I think that it's actually when you look at both of those, they're both going after pretty aggressive price Actions and there's not a big deviation between the 2 of them.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. It seems like there's a big Step up in earnings expected from 1Q to 2Q and I'm assuming that that's related to the supply chain side of things and you've talked about April getting better. But I wonder if you can just And the visibility you have into that because I think you're putting a finer point on it than others in terms of the timing of some of the supply chain getting better, But just how secure that is at this point for the visibility it gives you?

Speaker 4

Well, I think when you look at The dynamics of that kind of walk, you obviously have a volume improvement, that's pretty substantial for the reasons that you just touched John around supply chain and semiconductors. You'll see more price flowing through in the Q2 versus the Q1 Because of the actions that we're now taking here in Q1, you'll get a bigger benefit in Q2. There's some cost containment actions we've touched on That you get a full quarter benefit of that in Q2 as well. So and then obviously some of the headwinds start to level out and recede a little bit versus the prior year. So, all those things together are really driving that improvement from Q1 to Q2.

Speaker 4

Well, I would say volume and price being the larger components of those items.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Dennis Lang for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Shannon, thanks. We'd like to thank everyone again for calling in this morning

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Earnings Conference Call
Stanley Black & Decker Q4 2021
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