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Earnings Beats and Misses
 

Wall Street equities research analysts issue quarterly earnings per share (EPS) estimates for most publicly-traded companies. The average of their EPS estimates is often referred to as the consensus EPS estimate. When companies actual earnings vary significantly from analysts' earnings estimates, this is referred to as an earnings surprise. This report shows the companies that have beat or missed analysts' earnings expectations by the largest margin during the last 90 days. Learn more about earnings surprises.

MarketRank evaluates a company based on community opinion, dividend strength, institutional and insider ownership, earnings and valuation, and analysts forecasts.
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Analyst consensus is the average investment recommendation among Wall Street research analysts.
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CompanyEarnings DateConsensus EPSActual EPSBeat/MissRevenue EstimateActual RevenueActions
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. stock logo
OMAB
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte
10/28/2022$1.12$21.74$20.62N/AN/A    
Bakkt Holdings, Inc. stock logo
BKKT
Bakkt
11/10/2022($0.19)$14.09$14.28$14.60 million$12.90 million
NetEase, Inc. stock logo
NTES
NetEase
11/17/2022$0.97$11.34$10.37$24.52 billion$24.43 billion  
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited stock logo
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
10/13/2022$1.69$10.83$9.14$607.97 billion$613.14 billion    
Avis Budget Group, Inc. stock logo
CAR
Avis Budget Group
10/31/2022$14.80$21.70$6.90$3.54 billion$3.55 billion      
Dillard's, Inc. stock logo
DDS
Dillard's
11/10/2022$4.87$10.96$6.09$1.50 billion$1.57 billion
JD.com, Inc. stock logo
JD
JD.com
11/18/2022$0.64$6.27$5.63$243.77 billion$243.54 billion    
Encore Wire Co. stock logo
WIRE
Encore Wire
10/25/2022$4.63$9.97$5.34$693.13 million$762.40 million      
Markel Co. stock logo
MKL
Markel
11/1/2022$17.66$21.51$3.85N/AN/A  
BioNTech SE stock logo
BNTX
BioNTech
11/7/2022$3.42$6.98$3.56$1.90 billion$3.46 billion    
Booking Holdings Inc. stock logo
BKNG
Booking
11/2/2022$49.55$53.03$3.48$5.92 billion$6.05 billion      
Popular, Inc. stock logo
BPOP
Popular
10/26/2022$2.53$5.70$3.17$709.82 million$1.01 billion    
Murphy USA Inc. stock logo
MUSA
Murphy USA
10/26/2022$6.24$9.28$3.04$6.00 billion$6.20 billion      
Pembina Pipeline Co. stock logo
PBA
Pembina Pipeline
11/3/2022$0.47$3.23$2.76$2.53 billion$2.78 billion  
Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. stock logo
ARGO
Argo Group International
11/7/2022($2.13)$0.44$2.57$505.60 million$489.00 million  
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stock logo
REGN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
11/3/2022$8.77$11.14$2.37$2.86 billion$2.94 billion    
Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated stock logo
RGA
Reinsurance Group of America
11/4/2022$3.00$5.20$2.20$4.01 billion$4.07 billion      
AutoZone, Inc. stock logo
AZO
AutoZone
9/19/2022$38.38$40.51$2.13$5.16 billion$5.35 billion    
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. stock logo
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman)
11/21/2022$0.26$2.37$2.11N/AN/A  
Cedar Fair, L.P. stock logo
FUN
Cedar Fair
11/2/2022$4.00$5.86$1.86$859.97 million$843.10 million    
United Microelectronics Co. stock logo
UMC
United Microelectronics
10/26/2022$0.35$2.19$1.84$72.90 billion$75.39 billion  
BlackRock, Inc. stock logo
BLK
BlackRock
10/13/2022$7.73$9.55$1.82$4.17 billion$4.31 billion    
PBF Energy Inc. stock logo
PBF
PBF Energy
10/27/2022$6.16$7.96$1.80$10.11 billion$12.76 billion    
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. stock logo
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
11/8/2022$5.50$7.30$1.80$1.29 billion$1.27 billion  
Builders FirstSource, Inc. stock logo
BLDR
Builders FirstSource
11/8/2022$3.53$5.20$1.67$5.30 billion$5.76 billion  
Phillips 66 stock logo
PSX
Phillips 66
11/1/2022$4.82$6.46$1.64$40.68 billionN/A    
Mr. Cooper Group Inc. stock logo
COOP
Mr. Cooper Group
10/26/2022$0.50$2.03$1.53$420.20 million$316.00 million    
Sanofi stock logo
SNY
Sanofi
10/28/2022$1.38$2.88$1.50$12.04 billion$12.48 billion  
Root, Inc. stock logo
ROOT
Root
11/9/2022($6.01)($4.54)$1.47$75.74 million$73.70 million    
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) stock logo
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)
10/20/2022$0.15$1.56$1.41$66.09 billion$68.00 billion  
Medifast, Inc. stock logo
MED
Medifast
11/3/2022$1.91$3.32$1.41$349.30 million$390.40 million  
Precision Drilling Co. stock logo
PDS
Precision Drilling
10/27/2022$0.85$2.26$1.41$409.04 million$429.40 million  
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. stock logo
GPI
Group 1 Automotive
10/26/2022$11.18$12.57$1.39$4.03 billion$4.16 billion    
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. stock logo
AVTX
Avalo Therapeutics
11/7/2022($1.03)$0.34$1.37$1.40 million$14.95 million
United Therapeutics Co. stock logo
UTHR
United Therapeutics
11/2/2022$3.57$4.91$1.34$493.46 million$516.00 million    
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. stock logo
PFSI
PennyMac Financial Services
10/27/2022$1.12$2.46$1.34$415.30 million$476.30 million    
Equinix, Inc. stock logo
EQIX
Equinix
11/2/2022$6.40$7.73$1.33$1.84 billion$1.84 billion    
RH stock logo
RH
RH
9/8/2022$6.81$8.08$1.27$969.20 million$991.62 million    
Sohu.com Limited stock logo
SOHU
Sohu.com
11/14/2022($0.64)$0.63$1.27N/AN/A  
THOR Industries, Inc. stock logo
THO
THOR Industries
9/28/2022$3.89$5.15$1.26$3.70 billion$3.82 billion  
QuidelOrtho Co. stock logo
QDEL
QuidelOrtho
11/2/2022$0.60$1.85$1.25$719.61 million$783.80 million  
Vir Biotechnology, Inc. stock logo
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
11/3/2022$0.06$1.30$1.24$114.28 million$347.60 million
Super Micro Computer, Inc. stock logo
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
11/1/2022$2.20$3.42$1.23N/AN/A      
Kaiser Aluminum Co. stock logo
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
10/20/2022($0.57)$0.60$1.17$682.83 million$749.00 million    
W.W. Grainger, Inc. stock logo
GWW
W.W. Grainger
10/28/2022$7.12$8.27$1.15$3.87 billion$3.94 billion      
Boise Cascade stock logo
BCC
Boise Cascade
11/1/2022$4.45$5.52$1.07$2.03 billion$2.15 billion      
Cavco Industries, Inc. stock logo
CVCO
Cavco Industries
11/4/2022$4.83$5.88$1.05N/AN/A    
TransDigm Group Incorporated stock logo
TDG
TransDigm Group
11/10/2022$4.46$5.50$1.04$1.50 billion$1.51 billion      
Evercore Inc. stock logo
EVR
Evercore
10/26/2022$1.19$2.20$1.01$477.48 million$576.90 million  
Exxon Mobil Co. stock logo
XOM
Exxon Mobil
10/28/2022$3.45$4.45$1.00$102.96 billion$112.07 billion      
Amplify Energy Corp. stock logo
AMPY
Amplify Energy
11/1/2022$0.17$1.17$1.00N/A$126.30 million
BlueLinx Holdings Inc. stock logo
BXC
BlueLinx
11/1/2022$5.40$6.38$0.98N/AN/A  
Netflix, Inc. stock logo
NFLX
Netflix
10/18/2022$2.13$3.10$0.97$7.84 billion$7.93 billion      
Sunrun Inc. stock logo
RUN
Sunrun
11/2/2022($0.01)$0.96$0.97$542.20 million$631.91 million    
Aspen Technology, Inc. stock logo
AZPN
Aspen Technology
10/26/2022$1.25$2.20$0.95$236.76 million$250.82 million    
HireRight Holdings Co. stock logo
HRT
HireRight
11/3/2022$0.44$1.39$0.95$211.45 million$210.30 million
Cannae Holdings, Inc. stock logo
CNNE
Cannae
11/9/2022($0.24)$0.69$0.93$165.20 million$164.50 million
AstraZeneca PLC stock logo
AZN
AstraZeneca
11/10/2022$0.76$1.67$0.91$10.86 billion$10.98 billion  
Lam Research Co. stock logo
LRCX
Lam Research
10/19/2022$9.54$10.42$0.88$4.91 billion$5.07 billion      
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated stock logo
LGND
Ligand Pharmaceuticals
11/7/2022$0.43$1.31$0.88$38.33 million$66.10 million  
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. stock logo
AEIS
Advanced Energy Industries
11/1/2022$1.24$2.12$0.88N/AN/A    
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. stock logo
FMX
Fomento Económico Mexicano
10/28/2022$0.60$1.48$0.88N/AN/A    
Bunge Limited stock logo
BG
Bunge
10/26/2022$2.59$3.45$0.86$15.73 billion$16.76 billion      
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. stock logo
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences
11/1/2022$0.10$0.95$0.85$113.11 million$117.21 million
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. stock logo
ACHC
Acadia Healthcare
11/1/2022$0.79$1.64$0.85$657.49 million$666.70 million    
KLA Co. stock logo
KLAC
KLA
10/26/2022$6.22$7.06$0.84$2.60 billion$2.72 billion    
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc stock logo
JAZZ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals
11/9/2022$4.35$5.17$0.82$939.94 million$940.65 million    
AerCap Holdings stock logo
AER
AerCap
11/3/2022$1.39$2.21$0.82$1.65 billion$1.72 billion    
ASML Holding stock logo
ASML
ASML
10/18/2022$3.47$4.29$0.82$5.39 billion$5.78 billion  
Expedia Group, Inc. stock logo
EXPE
Expedia Group
11/3/2022$3.24$4.05$0.81$3.59 billion$3.62 billion    
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stock logo
GS
The Goldman Sachs Group
10/18/2022$7.47$8.25$0.78$11.53 billion$11.98 billion    
Biohaven Ltd. stock logo
BHVN
Biohaven
11/9/2022($2.53)($1.75)$0.78N/AN/A
Caterpillar Inc. stock logo
CAT
Caterpillar
10/27/2022$3.19$3.95$0.76$14.34 billion$14.99 billion  
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. stock logo
BZH
Beazer Homes USA
11/10/2022$2.06$2.82$0.76$718.55 million$827.60 million    
Ryder System, Inc. stock logo
R
Ryder System
10/26/2022$3.70$4.45$0.75$2.96 billion$3.04 billion      
Jackson Financial Inc. stock logo
JXN
Jackson Financial
11/9/2022$3.50$4.24$0.74$1.43 billionN/A    
Bel Fuse Inc. stock logo
BELFB
Bel Fuse
10/26/2022$0.76$1.48$0.72N/AN/A    
TopBuild Corp. stock logo
BLD
TopBuild
11/1/2022$4.09$4.80$0.71$1.21 billion$1.30 billion    
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated stock logo
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
10/27/2022$3.30$4.01$0.71$2.23 billion$2.33 billion      
Dell Technologies Inc. stock logo
DELL
Dell Technologies
11/21/2022$1.59$2.30$0.71$24.61 billion$24.72 million    
The Gap, Inc. stock logo
GPS
GAP
11/17/2022$0.01$0.71$0.70$3.83 billion$4.04 billion      
Synaptics Incorporated stock logo
SYNA
Synaptics
11/3/2022$2.82$3.52$0.70$450.48 million$448.10 million    
Diffusion Pharmaceuticals Inc. stock logo
DFFN
Diffusion Pharmaceuticals
11/14/2022($2.06)($1.37)$0.69N/AN/A
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. stock logo
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive
10/27/2022$8.50$9.17$0.67$3.71 billion$3.80 billion    
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. stock logo
UAL
United Airlines
10/19/2022$2.15$2.81$0.66$12.74 billion$12.88 billion      
A-Mark Precious Metals, Inc. stock logo
AMRK
A-Mark Precious Metals
8/30/2022$1.41$2.06$0.65$2.07 billion$2.09 billion
BP p.l.c. stock logo
BP
BP
10/31/2022$1.94$2.59$0.65$60.93 billion$55.01 billion  
Humana Inc. stock logo
HUM
Humana
11/2/2022$6.24$6.88$0.64$22.78 billion$22.80 billion      
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. stock logo
EXPD
Expeditors International of Washington
11/8/2022$1.91$2.54$0.63$4.21 billion$4.36 billion
TriNet Group, Inc. stock logo
TNET
TriNet Group
10/25/2022$0.81$1.44$0.63$302.92 million$369.00 million    
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. stock logo
AAWW
Atlas Air Worldwide
11/3/2022$4.26$4.88$0.62$1.19 billion$1.12 billion
Viper Energy Partners LP stock logo
VNOM
Viper Energy Partners
11/7/2022$0.44$1.06$0.62$214.61 million$221.62 million    
Cenovus Energy Inc. stock logo
CVE
Cenovus Energy
11/2/2022$0.91$1.53$0.62$14.91 billion$20.09 billion  
Biogen Inc. stock logo
BIIB
Biogen
10/25/2022$4.16$4.77$0.61$2.47 billion$2.51 billion      
Parker-Hannifin Co. stock logo
PH
Parker-Hannifin
11/3/2022$4.15$4.74$0.59$3.95 billion$4.23 billion      
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. stock logo
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
9/27/2022$1.98$2.57$0.59$617.40 million$658.34 million
monday.com Ltd. stock logo
MNDY
monday.com
11/14/2022($0.53)$0.05$0.58$130.45 million$136.89 million  
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. stock logo
AMP
Ameriprise Financial
10/26/2022$5.85$6.43$0.58$3.32 billion$3.49 billion      
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stock logo
IONS
Ionis Pharmaceuticals
11/9/2022($0.74)($0.16)$0.58$145.67 million$160.00 million    
Medpace Holdings, Inc. stock logo
MEDP
Medpace
10/24/2022$1.47$2.05$0.58$357.17 million$383.74 million      
What is an Earnings Surprise?

An earnings surprise occurs when a company posts revenue and/or earnings per share or profit that is higher (beat) or lower (miss) than what the analysts that follow the company predict. 

When the earnings beat or miss is significant, it will likely have an impact on the company’s stock price. This price movement can be temporary or it can be a continuation of a trend in place before the company reported earnings. In this article, we’ll take a closer look at earnings surprises, including some of the popular forecasting models that analysts use to estimate the value of a company. 

Earnings season is a time when a company’s stock price can make outsized movements and an earnings report is like a report card for investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires every publicly traded company to deliver an earnings report to shareholders on a regular basis, usually quarterly.

This report covers a range of issues that affect business operations. In the financial press, it boils down to the company’s revenue (the top line) and earnings per share, or profit (the bottom line).

Analysts spend extensive time researching a company and cover this type of data. They speak with management, visit facilities and pay attention to macroeconomic conditions that could affect the sector in which that company operates. From there, the analysts post expectations for the company’s revenue and earnings per share for the upcoming period. 

On many occasions, a company reports higher or lower earnings than what analysts expect. These are known as earnings surprises and they can occur on the upside (an earnings beat) or the downside (an earnings miss). 

MarketBeat offers subscribers the MarketBeat earnings screener which could also be used as an earnings surprise screener. That’s because the screener allows you to search for a company’s earnings results based on specific criteria such as whether its earnings per share (EPS) estimate came in higher or lower than the consensus estimate of analysts. 

The next section provides more details about different earnings surprises that investors can expect.  

In addition to providing the raw numbers, companies use their earnings reports as a way to provide guidance about upcoming quarters or the entire year. As a free service, you can find the latest earnings reports from MarketBeat by looking under the tab called “earnings calendar.” 

Don’t forget to review the earnings transcript of the company’s conference call. What are earnings transcripts? They are audio recordings and/or written transcriptions of everything that a company says to analysts and investors after they report earnings. 

Pay close attention to what company management says to understand how it may affect your investment decisions. MarketBeat has a tool that can help you read or listen to many transcripts. MarketBeat also provides tools to help you learn more about earnings guidance data.

There are four types of earnings surprises: a double beat, a double miss, a “beat on revenue but a miss on earnings” and a “miss on revenue but a beat on earnings.” 

The Double Beat

The “double beat” is the most bullish of all outcomes. This means that for the quarter just ended, the company sold more than analysts expected. More importantly, it generated a higher profit. This could mean that its products had a higher profit margin or it could mean that the company has an efficient cost structure that allows more revenue to go to the bottom line. 

In either case, it’s considered bullish for the stock, so you can weigh this against the company’s future guidance. A company may issue a warning that while it beats on revenue and earnings in the current quarter, that trend will not likely continue. In this case, the company’s stock could drop in value. However, if that forward guidance suggests that revenue and earnings will continue to grow, the stock could move much higher.

The Double Miss

Not surprisingly, the “double miss” is the most bearish of all outcomes. This means that the company generated less revenue and profit than the analysts expected. If this is followed by negative guidance, you may want to sell your stock. On the other hand, if the miss was caused by conditions largely outside of the company’s control, you may decide to hang on to the stock, particularly if the company pays a dividend. 

For example, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many companies saw their stock prices plunge. In the initial quarters, many delivered lower revenue and earnings than forecasted. However, when companies quickly reversed, prudent investors made substantial gains.

Beat on Revenue, Miss on Earnings

A “beat on revenue, miss on earnings” is generally seen as bearish. When a company increases its sales but doesn’t generate as much profit as in prior quarters, it suggests some kind of negative pricing imbalance. In many cases, it signals that the company does not have the pricing power to pass along increasing producer costs to its customers. If the company operates in a highly cyclical sector, this may weigh on the stock for several quarters and may encourage you to sell your shares. 

Beat on Earnings, Miss on Revenue

Conversely, a “beat on earnings, miss on revenue” is seen as neutral to slightly bullish. Obviously, it’s not great for a company to sell fewer products. If the numbers beat profit expectations, it can suggest that the company has a high profit margin and that its customers will pay that premium to own the products. If investors believe that the situation will continue for several quarters, it may be time to buy shares even though the stock may go higher after earnings. 

Let’s take a look at what analysts typically recommend for individual stocks:

  • “Strong buy” or “buy” recommendation: This means that the analyst has made a recommendation for investors to buy a particular stock or security. You can expect a company to beat analysts’ recommendations.
  • “Strong sell” or “sell” recommendation: This means that an analyst has made a recommendation for investors to sell or liquidate their position in a particular stock or security. In this scenario, the revenue and profit estimates already price in this sentiment.
  • “Neutral” or “hold” recommendations: This means analysts have not called for specific buy or sell action. Rather, they give their opinion on the performance of the stock. This rating is given when an analyst expects the stock to perform in a way consistent with the performance of the broader market, or with comparable companies within the analyst’s sector of expertise. This rating could cause the biggest upside or downside from earnings surprises.

In recent years, many analysts have started to add clarity to the expected movement of their stock forecasts using two additional categories:

  • “Underperform” rating: This means the expectation for the stock will perform below the market or sector average. Analysts may use ratings such as "moderate sell,” “weak hold" or “underweight” in place of “underperform.”
  • “Outperform” rating: This is the opposite of an “underperform” rating. Stocks that receive this rating should outperform the market or sector average. Analysts may also substitute words like “moderate buy,” “accumulate” or “overweight.”

As we noted earlier, analysts take the information they receive from company executives as well as their own boots-on-the-ground research to determine a company’s valuation and to determine the economic value of a business.

If you have a background or interest in finance, you may want to look at a company’s balance sheet and do your own calculations. For example, a company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio can be a clue as to whether you should buy a stock. What is price-to-earnings ratio, exactly? That’s when you can rely on the calculations provided by analysts. Here’s a look at some of the more popular valuation models. 

Market Capitalization

You can calculate a company’s market capitalization (or market cap) by multiplying the company’s share price by the total number of shares outstanding. 

For example, on November 7, 2022, The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) had a share price of $59.45 and 4,324,513,000 shares outstanding. The company’s market cap is determined by the formula 59.45 x 4,324,513,000 to arrive at the company’s market cap of just over $257 billion.

Times Revenue Method

This method assigns a multiplier to a company’s revenues generated over a period of time. The multiplier takes into account the company’s industry and current economic conditions. Tech companies typically have larger multiples than, say, utility companies. 

Earnings Multiplier

This method is similar to the times revenue method but puts the multiplier on earnings instead of revenue. Earnings tend to be a more accurate indicator of a company’s future success than revenue. The earnings multiplier is assigned to a company’s future cash flow that could be invested at the current interest rate over a specified period of time (usually 12 months). 

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method

The discounted cash flow method, a commonly used model, looks similar to the earnings valuation model in that it seeks to project future cash flows to the current market value of the company. This model takes inflation into account. 

Book Value

A company’s book value measures the value of the equity that shareholders have in a company. Book value, shown on a company’s balance sheet, subtracts a company’s total liabilities from its total assets. 

The answer to this question depends on what you believe about the accuracy of the earnings estimates. First, consider the accuracy of the information offered by the company. It has become increasingly common for companies to deliver preemptive earnings announcements. 

In the best-case scenario, you may consider it a step toward transparency. On the other hand, analysts can lower expectations that the company can then beat. 

Another factor is analyst objectivity. Prior to the dot-com crash of 2000, brokerage houses and other firms received “soft money” as compensation which led analysts to provide research and issue better ratings than a company would have otherwise merited. One regulation that has emerged since the dot-com crash requires analysts to use commonly accepted valuation techniques in their analysis, such as the factors listed above. This ensures that the methodology they use to assign a value to the company follows generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). 

However, a more fundamental reason for analysts to be as accurate as possible is their own credibility and that of their firm. To that end, MarketBeat provides an analyst rankings tool that displays the average return on investment (ROI) for every analyst that made a “buy” or “strong buy” recommendation. Investors can sort results by country, sector and market cap. 

An earnings surprise occurs when the revenue and/or profit that a company reports exceeds or falls short of analysts’ estimates. When this occurs, it usually has a proportionate effect on a company’s stock price. That means the larger the beat or miss, the higher or lower the stock price can move.

Analysts use the information they have gathered from closely following the companies to provide investors with accurate revenue and earnings estimates. For a variety of reasons, their numbers may understate or overstate a company’s actual results. 

Use these estimates as a guide and prepare yourself to rethink your own ideas about the company if the earnings report delivers results that contradict your reasons for taking a long or short position in a stock. 

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