Illumina Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 11, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Illumina delivered Q2 revenue of $1.16 billion, up 3% year-over-year (5% constant currency), but results were hindered by macroeconomic headwinds including supply chain delays, conservative inventory management, foreign exchange pressures, and COVID-related shutdowns in China.
  • Sequencing platforms and consumables continued to gain traction with NovaSeq shipments up 23% and NextSeq orders up 20% year-over-year, while clinical consumables grew 11% and oncology consumables nearly 20%, and the TruSight Oncology assay saw a 45% increase in shipments.
  • GRAIL’s Galleri multi-cancer early detection test achieved the fastest first-year revenue ramp for a cancer screening test and enrolled 140,000 volunteers in the UK NHS trial in 10.5 months, but full-year 2022 revenue guidance was revised down to $50–70 million.
  • The company remains committed to its innovation roadmap with the NovaSeq Dx clinical sequencer on track for a Q4 launch, the Infinity long-read system entering early access this year, and significant progress on Chemistry X flow cell manufacturing and performance.
  • Illumina now expects full-year consolidated revenue growth of 4–5%, non-GAAP EPS of $2.75–$2.90, and consolidated non-GAAP operating margin of 11.5–12%, reflecting temporary headwinds and a more measured outlook.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Illumina Q2 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Everyone. Illumina delivered revenues of $1,160,000,000 in the 2nd quarter, up 3% year over year or 5% on a constant currency basis. While sequencing activity across our markets was robust in the 2nd quarter, with sequencing runs on our connected high and mid throughput platforms growing more than 15% year over year and clinical growing even faster, Our second quarter results were impacted by macroeconomic challenges that we expect to play out over the next couple of quarters. Specifically, some customers experienced supply chain pressures that delayed their lab expansions and others managed inventory and capital more conservatively. We also saw adverse effects of foreign exchange and anticipated COVID related shutdowns in China.

Operator

The robust sequencing activity levels, underlying growth of our target markets and our conversations with customers across the globe indicate these dynamics are temporary. During the quarter, we also made terrific progress on our innovation roadmap and are poised to soon deliver the next generation of breakthrough technologies that will fuel the next era of genomics. Turning now to performance across our platforms. In high throughput, NovaSeq shipments in Q2 grew 23% year over year, our highest second quarter ever. Consistent with prior quarters, clinical customers, primarily in oncology testing, drove half of our NovaSeq shipments.

Operator

In mid throughput, NextSeq 1ks2ks orders were up 20% year over year. Despite some shipment shifting from Q2 to Q3 due to supply delays, Q2 NextSeq 1ks2ks shipments increased slightly year over year. Low throughput shipments were relatively flat year over year, even with the comparison to last year's COVID surveillance driven volume. Turning to our markets, we continue to gain traction in clinical with sequencing consumable shipments for the Q2 up 11% year over year and all of our clinical markets contributing to the increase. As I mentioned earlier, we have seen continued growth in our oncology markets.

Operator

In Q2, oncology consumables grew almost 20% year over year. An area of note is our market leading TruSight Oncology assay. Shipments of TSO grew 45% year over year and we now have delivered distributed comprehensive genomic profiling tests to every major market in the world. We have worked closely with large evidence programs to facilitate clinical utility and drive market access. And we have more than 10 pharma partners developing CDx claims with us.

Operator

Most recently, we expanded our portfolio by co developing a new TSO500 HRD test with Merck that leverages Illumina's work with Myriad Genetics. We also co developed a pan cancer companion diagnostic for TSO comprehensive EU with Bayer. Also in oncology, June marks the 1 year anniversary of Grail's launch of Galleri. In that time, Galleri delivered the fastest ever 1st year revenue ramp of a cancer screening test. GRAIL continues to drive progress in clinical evidence generation and commercial use of their multi cancer early detection test, Galleri.

Operator

The number of U. S. Health systems partnering with GRAIL to offer Galleri continues to grow, most recently with the addition of Mercy, 1 of the 25 largest U. S. Health systems and Ochsner Health, the largest Gulf South health system.

Operator

Also, GRAIL recently partnered with AstraZeneca to develop companion diagnostic tests that will identify patients with high risk early stage disease. AstraZeneca will use GRAIL technology to recruit patients with early stage cancer for AstraZeneca's clinical studies, making cancer medicines available where there is greater potential to transform outcomes. More broadly, the trials currently underway for GALRI continue to progress. The NHS GALRI trial in the UK, The largest multi cancer early detection study has enrolled 140,000 volunteers in just over 10 months, and unprecedented speed, especially for a trial of this size. Pending successful completion of the trial, the NHS plans to roll out GALRI to an additional 1,000,000 people starting in 2024.

Operator

This collaboration supports the NHS long term plan to transform cancer care with 34 cancers diagnosed at an early stage by 2028. Additionally, GRAIL has completed a final analysis of its PATHFINDER study. With data to be presented at the European Society of Medical Oncology Congress September 9th to 13th. GRAIL has made substantial progress building a network of partners that will support ongoing adoption of GALRY. But commercial progress is proceeding at a more measured pace as health systems ramp up.

Operator

For these reasons, Grail has revised its revenue guidance for the full year 2022 to a range of $50,000,000 to $70,000,000 Turning to infectious disease and microbiology. The genomic surveillance infrastructure built on Illumina instruments during the pandemic in more than 100 countries is now being used for other diseases like monkeypox. This network is enabling a quicker genetic assessment of this new disease as momentum continues to build for a robust global pathogen infrastructure. We're expanding our surveillance portfolio accordingly. In June, we provided select customers access to our novel viral surveillance panel based on workflows implemented for COVID-nineteen.

Operator

The panel provides targeted sequencing for the 66 most critical viruses of global public health concern, including monkeypox and polio, and will be commercially available later this year. Our research and applied markets were relatively flat year over year, with growth in the Americas and APJ offset by declines in EMEA and China. In the quarter, we announced our partnership with Precision Health Research Singapore or PRECICE to sequence whole genomes of 100,000 Singaporean participants. Together, we will develop Southeast Asia's most comprehensive population study and gather deep insights into Asian genomic diversity and key genetic, social, environmental and other factors associated with disease. Before I update you on further advances in our innovation roadmap, I'll turn the call over to Joydeep.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Francis. As a reminder, our 2nd quarter financial results include the consolidated financial results for GRAIL. I'll start by reviewing our consolidated financial results, followed by segment results for Core Illumina and GRAIL, then conclude with additional remarks on our current outlook for 2022. I'll be discussing non GAAP results, which include stock based compensation. I encourage you to review the GAAP reconciliation of these non GAAP measures, which can be found in today's release and in supplementary data available on our website.

Speaker 1

In the Q2, consolidated revenue was $1,160,000,000 up 3% year over year or 5% on a constant currency basis, net of the effects of hedging. Revenue was impacted by the macroeconomic factors that Francis referenced. As you know, we had anticipated the headwinds from the China shutdowns, the negative impact of FX and slowing COVID surveillance. Each of these were slightly worse than we expected and collectively they drove 1 quarter of the variance between our expectations and actual results. The remainder of this variance was driven by the lab expansion delays encountered by a few of our large customers as a result of global supply chain constraints as well as customer inventory and capital management.

Speaker 1

Nonetheless, overall sequencing activity on our connected instruments was strong in the 2nd quarter, with sequencing runs in our high and mid throughput instruments growing more than 15% year over year. We believe this is a useful reference that shows the general activity trend across our installed base and is directionally correlated with revenue over time. For the Q2, GAAP net loss was $535,000,000 or a loss of $3.40 per diluted share, which included $609,000,000 in legal contingencies recorded in Q2 due to the potential fine that the European Commission may impose related to our GRAIL acquisition and settlement of our litigation with BGI. Non GAAP earnings were $91,000,000 or dollars 0.57 per diluted share, including dilution from Grail's non GAAP operating loss of $152,000,000 for the quarter. Our non GAAP tax rate was 25.8 percent, which increased 7.90 basis points year over year and 800 basis points from Q1 2022, primarily due to the increased impact of R and D expense capitalization requirements implemented by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.

Speaker 1

Our non GAAP weighted average diluted share count for the quarter was approximately $159,000,000 Moving to segment results, I will start by discussing the financial results of core alumina. Core alumina revenue of 1,160,000,000 grew 3% year over year or 4% on a constant currency basis, net of the effects of hedging. Core Illumina sequencing consumables grew 6% year over year to $744,000,000 driven by almost 20% growth in oncology testing. Core consumables growth more than offset headwinds from lockdowns in China, the completion of the U. K.

Speaker 1

Biobank program in Q3 of 2021, reductions in COVID surveillance and negative FX impacts. Sequencing instruments revenue for Core Illumina grew 1% year over year to $119,000,000 driven by 23% growth in NovaSeq shipments, offset by a 14% decrease in the mid throughput shipments year over year. The decrease in mid throughput shipments was primarily due to headwinds from COVID surveillance and COVID lockdowns in China with NextSeq 1ks2ks growth more than offset by a decrease in NextSeq 550. NextSeq 1ks2ks instruments continued to grow year over year and the growth would have been stronger had it not been for temporary supply constraints that delayed shipments into the Q3. NextSeq 1ks2ks orders were up 20% year over year with continuing strong adoption of our newest platform.

Speaker 1

During the Q2, COVID surveillance contributed approximately $25,000,000 in sequencing consumables revenue and $2,000,000 in incremental instruments revenue, representing a decline of 55% year over year. This decline was driven by lower than expected testing samples and the expected decline in instrument shipments as COVID surveillance capacity was largely established in 2021. Core Illumina sequencing service and other revenue of $125,000,000 was down 2% year over year, driven by $20,000,000 of a one time revenue recognized in 2021 from NIPT royalties received related to a patent litigation settlement, partially offset by increased instrument service contracts and contributions from oncology co development partnerships. Moving to regional results for core alumina. Revenue for the Americas region was $633,000,000 up 7% year over year, primarily due to NovaSeq strength with continued demand from oncology testing customers, driving instrument placements and consumables growth.

Speaker 1

Growth in the region was nonetheless lower than expected primarily due to customer lab expansion delays and inventory and capital management we have mentioned during the call. EMEA revenue of $308,000,000 represented a 4% year over year, but a 1% increase in a constant currency basis net of the effect of hedges. Sequencing growth driven by clinical large scale research projects was more than offset by the UK Biobank program in 2021 and a decline in COVID surveillance revenue. Cumulatively, these significant headwinds and FX negatively impacted year over year revenue growth by 20 percentage points. Greater China revenue of $118,000,000 represented an 11% decrease year over year and a 10% decrease on a constant currency basis.

Speaker 1

This was slightly more negative than the approximately $35,000,000 headwind to guidance we provided last quarter. As expected, the region continued to be impacted by prolonged COVID-nineteen restrictions and shutdowns that began in March this year. Finally, APG revenue of $97,000,000 grew 14% year over year or 20% on a constant currency basis, net of the effects of hedges. Growth in the region was primarily due to increased NovaSeq shipments, which doubled year over year driven by large scale research project demand as well as strength in NIPT and oncology testing. Moving to the rest of core alumina P and L.

Speaker 1

Core alumina non GAAP gross margin of 69.8 percent decreased 200 basis points year over year, primarily due to less fixed cost leverage on lower manufacturing volumes, margin impact from one time revenue from a patent litigation settlement in 2021 and increased freight costs attributable to broader global supply chain pressures. These factors were partially offset by a more favorable product mix as well as a number of productivity initiatives we continue to execute. Core aluminum non GAAP operating expenses of $519,000,000 were up $48,000,000 year over year due primarily to headcount growth and investments we're making in R and D to support the continued advancements of in our innovation roadmap. Despite the year over year increase, non GAAP core alumina operating expenses were lower than we originally planned as a result of lower performance based compensation expense given our lower revenue outlook and cost containment initiatives focused on select hires and discretionary spend including travel. Transitioning to the financial results for GRAIL.

Speaker 1

Rail revenue of $12,000,000 for the quarter consisted primarily of gallery test fees. Rail non GAAP operating expenses totaled $156,000,000 for the quarter and consisted primarily of expenses related to headcount and clinical trials. These expenses were lower than expected as GRAIL managed its project spend in light of its lower quarterly outlook. Moving to consolidated cash flow and balance sheet items. Cash flow from operations was $125,000,000 DSO was 50 days compared to 46 days last quarter due to revenue linearity.

Speaker 1

2nd quarter 2022 capital expenditures were $71,000,000 and free cash flow was 54,000,000 We did not repurchase any common stock in the quarter. We ended the quarter with approximately $1,300,000,000 in cash, cash equivalents and short term investments. Moving now to 2022 guidance. We have revised our outlook for the full year to represent the macroeconomic factors we observed through early August and we assume will continue for the rest of the year. We now expect full year 2022 consolidated revenue to grow in the range of 4% to 5%, including core alumina revenue growth in the range of 3.5% to 4.5% and GRAIL revenue of $50,000,000 to $70,000,000 For the full year, at the midpoint of our revenue guidance range, we now expect Core Illumina sequencing revenue to grow approximately 4.5%.

Speaker 1

This includes intercompany sales to GRAIL of approximately $25,000,000 which are eliminated in consolidation. Within core Illumina sequencing revenue, we now expect instrument growth of 1.5% and consumables growth of 5%, which reflects NovaSeq pull through in the range of $1,100,000 to $1,200,000 per system for 2022. We continue to expect pull through for NextSeq $1,002,000 in the range of $130,000 to $180,000 per system and for the NextSeq 550 in the range of $100,000 to $150,000 per system. For MiSeq, we continue to expect pull through in the range of $35,000 to $45,000 per system and for MiniSeq, We continue to expect pull through in the range of $20,000 to $25,000 per system. We now expect revenue from in the range of $110,000,000 to $130,000,000 While we anticipated a decline in COVID surveillance in 2022, The deceleration has occurred at a more rapid pace than we've previously forecasted.

Speaker 1

As we navigate the macroeconomic factors we have mentioned, We're implementing multiple strategies, including prioritizing key innovation investments and critical hires, while pausing investments that can be made at later times. We've retained all critical investments in our innovation roadmap, including NovaSeq Dx, Chemistry X, our Infinity long read technology and our TSO portfolio. We now expect consolidated non GAAP operating margin in the range of 11.5% to 12% and core alumina non GAAP operating margin in the range of 24.5% to 25%. We expect a consolidated non GAAP tax rate of approximately 14%, which continues to assume that the R and D expense capitalization requirements implemented by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 will be repealed or deferred in Q4. And we now expect non GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $2.75 to $2.90 which includes dilution from GRAIL non GAAP operating loss of approximately $610,000,000 in line with previous expectations.

Speaker 1

Lastly, we continue to expect diluted shares standing of approximately 159,000,000 shares for 2022. For the Q3 of 2022, We expect consolidated revenue to be flat to 1% higher year over year from the Q3 of 2021. We expect consolidated non GAAP operating margin to be approximately 5%. We expect Core Illumina non GAAP operating margin to be approximately 20%. We expect consolidated non GAAP tax rate to be approximately 22%, which continues to reflect the negative impact from the R and D capitalization requirements we expect will be repealed or deferred in the Q4 of this year.

Speaker 1

And lastly, we expect diluted shares outstanding to be in line with our full year 2022 guidance of approximately 159,000,000 shares. I will now hand the call back over to Francis for his final remarks.

Operator

Thanks, Joydeep. Turning to our innovation roadmap. We have significant opportunities to reimagine the power and potential of genomics. Development and registration activities for NovaSeq Dx, the first ever high throughput clinical sequencer, are progressing as planned and on track for a Q4 launch. We continue to get good feedback from initial customers on our Infinity long read technology, with many saying it has the potential to replace on market long reads for a broad range of applications, including human rare diseases.

Operator

Infinity is on track to be available later this year for early access customers. In multiomics, our partnership with SomaLogic to accelerate NGS to proteomics is progressing, and we expect to deliver our ultrahigh throughput, ultrahighplexity assay in 2024. Turning now to Chemistry X, our next generation breakthrough SBS chemistry. We've made fantastic progress over the last quarter. We're now producing flow cells using our new manufacturing process based on 300 millimeter wafers.

Operator

We successfully tested Chemistry X on the new flow cells and the results exceed our expectations for quality, cost and speed. We're excited to showcase these breakthroughs and reveal how they come to life at the Illumina Genomics Forum. And we look forward to hosting you at our Investor Day on October 3, where we will discuss these technologies and our long term growth strategies. If you haven't already registered, please be sure to do so soon. I'll now invite the operator to open the line for Q and A.

Speaker 2

Thank you. We'll take our first question from Derek Dibran, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi, good afternoon. So Francis, I'm a bit perplexed on the lab expansion comments. Our channel checks and discussions at AGBT in June didn't suggest that This is happening. So is this more of an issue with your clinical customers not expanding? And how do you know it wasn't the impact of And just exactly how much consumable inventory is there still in the channel?

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Hi, Derek. So in terms of the lab expansion, what we saw happen in Q2 was a few of our customers that had plans to launch new labs or expanded labs experienced some delays on their own because of their own supply chain issues. Equipment that they were expecting to get for those expanded labs didn't come in as they expected. And so we saw a few lab expansion plans delayed, some into Q2, into Q3 and then 1 into Q4 of next year. As you can imagine, we are very close to our customers, so we know the specifics of those lab expansions.

Operator

And to be clear, those lab expansions are delayed, but still progressing. And so that's what's driving the number we talked about both in Q2 and for the rest of the year. In terms of inventory, what's playing out is Some of our customers that are looking to manage their capital more closely are holding less inventory on their site. They have a lot of confidence in the resilience of our supply chain and so they're looking to trim back the inventory levels that they hold on their own site. And so from our perspective, we expect that to play out.

Operator

It started to play out in Q2. It will play out a little bit in Q3 and Q4 as well. But in the end, their demand, their activity levels are going to match what we are seeing from the data that we get from monitoring their instruments. And there, The activity and therefore demand continues to be very robust. As we said in Q2, the activity levels that we're monitoring on the high and mid throughput instruments reflected a growth rate in runs that are greater than 15%.

Operator

And so as we work through these transitory impacts, We fully expect both demand and therefore orders to more closely match the activity levels that we're seeing.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Dan Brennan with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just a follow-up to Derek's question and then a related one. So just the magnitude of the second half decline, Francis. So The guidance the new updated guidance for core alumina growth suggests kind of flat growth in the back half of the year versus kind of the high teens that you were initially guiding to.

Speaker 4

So just the magnitude from a few customers, maybe you can just speak a little bit more to just any more color on that front, just kind of Is there a healthy amount of conservatism that you're baking in here? Or just kind of how do you how do we reconcile the magnitude of the cut with a few customers kind of Holding back. And then kind of as a related question to Derek's point, Mike, are you seeing any delay, whether it be ahead of Chemistry X launching, So customers might be pausing or any impact from some of the competitive noise that's out there, which I think would be more palatable, I think, for the cut if there was like a pause on as we're waiting to evaluate new products. Thank

Operator

you. Yes. Thanks for that question, Dan. And maybe I'll start with the second half and then I'll turn it over to Joydeep to sort of size the magnitude of the factors that we talked about. From what we are seeing and what we're hearing from our customers, the Challenges that our customers addressing are around their lab expansion delays, as I said, related to dealing with their own supply chain for the expansion of their labs.

Operator

And again tighter management of their inventory levels. And that really was some of the big drivers of the change in addition to a little bit of foreign exchange and so on. And so They're telling us that this isn't really related to Chemistry X or any competitive issues. In fact, they're excited to hear about Chemistry X and they're looking forward learning more about it at the Illumina Genomics Forum, but really what's driving the change are the factors that we talked about. And maybe I'll turn it over to you, Joydeep, to shed some more color on the size of them.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Francis. So I think, first of all, our Dan, you asked about is the Forecast for the second half conservative, we believe based on trends we have seen that it's actually a balanced forecast, right? There's always upsides and downsides. There are the factors that we saw in the second quarter, we believe will continue into the next of through the rest of this year.

Speaker 1

To size them up, approximately 25% of the decline from our forecast, It really is coming from factors such as FX, the faster than expected acceleration on the COVID side and some of the declines we've seen in China, which are really more GDP related effects on the research side of our business in China. The other 75% or so are related to the factors that Francis referred to, which are really around Lab expansion delays due to broader supply chain constraints that are impacting the construction of labs at our customers and then them bringing up new assays and instruments. And then the impacts we're seeing from the macroeconomic headwinds on our customers that are causing a temporary reduction in inventory levels and also some capital push outs.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Dan Arias with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Good afternoon, guys. Thanks. Francis, maybe just back on the consumable side. You've talked a lot about the fact that the outlook for sequencing there is Good, because that work essentially has to be done in order to support patient assessment. So what's slamming the brakes on purchasing so So abruptly, is it more development on the commercial side related to things like liquid biopsy work?

Speaker 3

Or are you actually seeing lower spending Patient facing institutions, clinical oncology institutions, etcetera. And then just a follow-up, why no preannouncement when Sam left, only 3 weeks left in the quarter, so it seems like a miss was well on its way at that point. Thanks.

Operator

Yes. Also, let me take both parts of the question, Dan, so let me start by addressing the consumables and demand point. You're right, we end up because we Serve clinical customers, a lot of our customers continue to see robust demand. They're targeting, for example, cancer patients that need their tissues biopsied and then sequenced or ctDNA tests. And that is reflected in the activity levels that we saw in Q2 that even as customers were looking to manage their inventories more tightly, they continue to run their machines hard, right?

Operator

So we said Overall, if we look at the run activity on the mid and high throughput instruments that we monitor Across our customer base that we monitor, the runs grew 15% year over year. But in the clinical market, that was actually higher for exactly the reasons you talked about that our customers in the clinical markets, especially in areas like oncology therapy selection testing, which represents for us the largest segment that we serve, that they continue to see robust demand and that was reflected in their activity levels. Now As we said, our customers are looking to manage their cash more conservatively, so they trim back the amount of inventory that they're holding on their sites. They can do that as a one time sort of rebalancing down, but ultimately their ordering levels will match the activity levels that they have on their instruments. And so that's why we expect this impact to play out a little bit in Q2, a little bit in the coming quarters, But then order rates will match, we believe, the actual activity that we're seeing on their machines.

Operator

Let me talk a little bit about the Sam point. So when Sam left, we as we said, he left because for personal reasons and he needed to be on the East Coast. And that's what we said when he left obviously. From our perspective, our quarters and to be more back end loaded. And so the impacts that I talked about became more clear at the end of the quarter.

Operator

And Hence, there was no color commentary at the time that Sam left.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from David Westenberg with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi. Thank you for taking the question. Yes, I'm sorry, I'm going to go back to kind of the quantification of the guidance here. You back out the guidance, it looks like $400,000,000 FX got worse. I don't know if you want to quantify that.

Speaker 5

COVID surveillance, What that number is? I know GRAIL was $20,000,000 and then lab expansion. I mean, is there anything In addition to those factors that maybe you can point out. And then, I want to go back to like the instrument or I mean the backlog here. You guys felt really good about the backlog exiting the quarter.

Speaker 5

It seems like maybe that didn't Those orders didn't go as expected or fill out as expected or what's going on with that? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. So Dave, thanks for the question. Let me reiterate what I said earlier, right? So 2 broad buckets about 25% or so Of that of the miss was really around things which included FX, the faster than expected China and some of the effects, the macroeconomic effects that we are seeing in the second half of the year, Which are not related directly to the lockdown, but the slower than expected GDP growth that they're having, right? And then the other bucket, the 75% really was the two factors, the lab expansion delays, which again we Expect to see coming back in 2023.

Speaker 1

So these are comments that we have heard directly from our customers. And then the second piece was around the slower than expected accumulation or restocking of inventory and some capital push outs from a broader set of customers. Again, as Francis mentioned, we expect these to be transitory. I think in terms of the backlog, I will say that the backlog that we're exiting Q2 with a Strong backlog of $1,100,000,000 this is in line with what we have seen in the previous 6 quarters. Again, backlog does move around a little bit from quarter to quarter as you would expect, but this again is very much in line with what we have seen in the past 6 quarters, which as you will remember, were pretty strong.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Julia Quinn with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, thanks for taking the question. Just two specific follow ups on the guidance. On NovaSeq, I noticed you took down a pull through guidance to $1,100,000 to 1,200,000 Given you noted there's still pretty strong volume utilization, are there pricing factors at play for your updated guidance? And then on GRAIL, you took it down by $20,000,000 So could you given that NHS seem to be progressing well, could you explain what the factors are at play there? Thank you.

Speaker 1

So thanks, Julia, for the question. So let me take the NovaSeq Pull through question first. So, no, first let me address, I mean, there this is not about pricing pressures. What we as you know, The pull through is really an output of a number of factors, right? So shipments in the quarter divided by a number of instruments that we expect to have activated at a certain point in time.

Speaker 1

Now both these factors played out This quarter in a way that our transitory and we had not expected. So first, Although the as Francis mentioned, right, the number of runs on our instruments was strong due to the inventory deleveraging. The actual number of shipments, which is the numerator of that calculation was slightly low. Also because we had Customers have bought a large number of NovaSeq in previous quarters and because of some of the lab expansion delays that you heard about, Some of these instruments didn't come online, right. So the denominator, because of the way we calculate pull through was inflated.

Speaker 1

So we do see this pull through being number being lower in this quarter as a result of those two factors. However, As we look forward, given the strong number of runs growth that our instruments are seeing across a broad range of our high throughput customers and given the strong market factors that are very intensive, the sequencing Like MRD, like oncology testing and things like spatial and proteomics, we do expect that in the long run, This number will continue to grow. And then I think you had a second question, which was Oh, the GRAIL factor. So a couple of things, right. As Francis mentioned, GRAIL has already proven itself to be a very well adopted test.

Speaker 1

It is the fastest revenue growth 1st year after launch of any screening test on the market ever. So while GRAIL numbers have been somewhat lower than expected from the earlier guidance, It is nonetheless a very strong test and we see a really strong adoption in multiple hospital systems across the country. So we believe that the test ordering from these systems that have already committed to GRAIL will pick up. But For the time being, I think, we remain very optimistic about the quality of the test and its potential.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Tayo Sivan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, guys. Good evening. Just a quick follow-up to kick things off there on the pricing, but from more Forward looking perspective here, Francis, you mentioned some customers thinking harder about CapEx. Some of them are even undergoing restructurings as we've seen this quarter. I was curious as to how you're thinking about this weighing on growth in 2023 and perhaps more importantly in the near term, How, if at all, does this change how you're thinking about pricing for Chemistry X, backward compatibility options for Chemistry X and so on?

Operator

Sure, Tejas. So in terms of helping our customers as they're working through the macro challenges, Obviously, we remain close to them. The reality is we are core to their business and their revenue generation and we are a very important supplier to these And so while we can help them in the sense that because of the strength of and the resilience of our supply chain, they are more confident in maintaining less inventory on-site that obviously helps them with cash outlays. The reality is they need to continue to service the demand they're getting because that's what drives their revenues and their growth and their long term success. And so we are not seeing a pullback in terms of activity levels from those customers, again, because we are core to their revenue generation and their success.

Operator

And we'll stay we're staying close to them. We're also very staying close to the lab expansion plans and making sure We were on top of when they expect to get equipment for the labs as they come online. In terms of pricing from our perspective, our thesis continues to believe that there is a huge opportunity to and the genomics market by continuing to drive the price for high quality sequencing, highly accurate sequencing down. That thesis continues to hold certainly in the research markets, but also in terms of opening up new clinical markets. We're seeing promising work, for example, happening in areas like cardiovascular disease and neurological disease and those will require both very large experiments from a research perspective, but also maybe different price points from a clinical perspective.

Operator

And so we continue to march forward with the idea that part of our mission is to make genomics more accessible by driving costs down. In terms of Chemistry X and the instruments, the way we are thinking about it is, We're certainly capable from a technology perspective of making Chemistry X available on instruments that are already on the market. So that is a lever available to us. And as we look at the market, we want to be sensitive to the fact that if customers have bought an instrument that we launched fairly recently that they may not have gone through their depreciation cycle. And so we'll think more about making Chemistry X available on those kinds of platforms.

Operator

But if it's been an instrument that's been on the market for a while, They've gone through a depreciation cycle. Then there is an opportunity for us to help that market upgrade and not just take advantages of the innovations in Chemistry X, But take advantage of the innovations across all the other technology components, whether it's optics, for example, of data pads and really deliver transformative new instruments. And that's how we're thinking about it.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Puneet Souda with SVB Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, Francis. Thanks for taking the question. So first one is really, could you talk a little bit about at a high level maybe about Who these customers are? Just trying to understand in terms of, are these customers more COVID customers or oncology customers or Genome Center customers and their lab expansion plans because I think that's where the challenge is because when we look at the life science Tools companies, the peer group that you have, some of those companies have delivered very strong growth.

Speaker 3

They had supply chain Challenges in the Q1, in fact, supply chain challenges were even more pronounced and these labs have taken delivery of a lot of these instruments. That's why peer group companies have delivered strongly. So just wondering what is different here with alumina instruments or what's unique about these customers. And then on GRAIL, I mean, you're pointing out as the fastest adopted test, but at the same time, you're lowering your guide. So just trying to understand, is there anything any unique dynamic with certain customers there?

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Yes. So let's take both. In terms of the labs, and I think you're asking about the labs that are delaying their expansion plans, who are they? You're saying, look, some of the other life science tools companies haven't seen that. So I'll describe them a little bit for you.

Operator

First of all, it's a few customers. 2nd, they are They're obviously genomics focused customers. They run genomics labs. And so you may not see that in the general life sciences tools market, but they you'll certainly see that in the sequencing market. They tend to be customers that are growing.

Operator

These are the ones that have expansion plans. So they are successful customers. They're experiencing robust growth and in fact they're serving markets like oncology, for example, where they see significant increased demand coming and are expecting to and are building significant labs. And so these are large customers, They are growing customers and they are customers that are facing significantly increased demand and are looking to expand their labs. Now They're Genomics Labs and they're primarily they're pretty much Illumina customers.

Operator

And so obviously, we're the ones that ride that cycle with them. And that's why you'd see it with us and that's why you'll see it as those labs come online, that's why you'll see the benefit accrue to alumina. So that's the characteristics of the customers we're talking about. In terms of GRAIL, it really has been just quite remarkable to see the fantastic growth they've had in their 1st year. If you look at their 1st 12 months, so June of in this June, they just lapsed their 1st 12 months.

Operator

They are the fastest revenue growth of any cancer screening test in history. Now that's quite remarkable, right? They're also doing a fantastic job in terms of signing up health systems and employers. And I'll give you another example of just how fast things are moving. So In the last quarter, they fully recruited the 140,000 person trial that they're running for the NHS.

Operator

Now typically a trial like that would take years to fully enroll. And the NHS working with Crowe was able to do that in 10.5 months. That gives you some sense of just the acceptance, the hunger in the market, the demand in the market for just such a breakthrough test, right? The fact that we can identify 50 cancers across all stages and people are starting to get a sense of the results that they're making it into the market. Now, What we're looking at now even with that toward growth base is we're looking at the rest of the year and we're looking at the ramp up that's happening in some of the And some of the health systems that have signed up and some of the employers, the GRAIL team has trimmed back some of their estimates for the rest of the year.

Operator

That doesn't take away, again, this is the fastest growing cancer screening test we've ever seen in history.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Kyle Mixon with Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks for taking the questions. Just a few on the guidance. So I was just curious about components of instrument revenue growth for 2022, 1.5 percent year over year. Maybe, Georgi, can you talk about expectations for placements versus orders versus pricing, maybe pricing is locked in or not locked in at this point? Just given the backlog commentary, it was very Kind of like entering the year and recently just how is that trending recently and going forward?

Speaker 8

And kind of relatedly, the year over year decline in mid throughput shipments in 2Q, I mean, I hear you on China and the other factors, but any chance that's partially due to the platform evaluation process as these new vendors enter the market or at least make some noise, because obviously these Large clinical labs are already test driving these products, so it's just worth asking. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Kyle. So Let me start with the 2Q piece on the mid throughput, right. So as I mentioned right there, The orders for mid throughput really were very strong, right? So we saw a Continued interest in strong orders for NextSeq 1 ks, 2 ks, this is our latest platform on that, pick up considerably.

Speaker 1

And while there was a Temporary supply chain issue at our end, which prevented us from delivering these orders in 2Q. They have subsequently been delivered already in this quarter. So we are very optimistic and we see very, very strong demand and interest in our mid throughput platform, On both on our research and our clinical customers. On the full year, so a couple of things, right. So You start with NovaSeq first, right.

Speaker 1

So we've had a strong first half of the year. Our orders For the first part first half of the year, we're up 30% year over year. And as we mentioned, right, 23% growth in the second Now this is for a platform that has this is now 6 years from launch, right. So we see extremely strong unprecedented demand even on the back of a very strong 2021. And we're excited about that.

Speaker 1

Remember also that These instruments have most of these instruments have now been deployed. We expect now that the pull through on consumables on these instruments will come and will continue to accelerate in subsequent quarters years. So we feel very good about our portfolio, both in the high throughput and the mid throughput segment.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Patrick Donnelly with Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. Francis, maybe one for you just in terms of kind of the operational spend that you guys are doing. You obviously kind of talked about the op margin pull down in the back half. Can you talk about how you're balancing some of the growth investments with also being mindful of kind of insulating the margin, Protecting the bottom line, obviously, have Chemistry X and Infinity coming up, I would assume you'd want to invest in kind of the launches there. So maybe just talk about again kind of that balance of Investing for growth and at the same time kind of realizing with things slowing, you need to protect the bottom line a bit and where you're pulling back and where you're pushing forward?

Speaker 9

Thanks.

Operator

Yes, sure, Patrick. So, obviously with the revised revenue outlook for the year, we are taking a look at our spend and exactly as you said doing that balance. On the one hand, we're looking for areas where we can contain costs. That means pulling back on discretionary items, for example, like travel and other discretionary spend. And we're also prioritizing the hiring that we're doing.

Operator

And so there are some hires that we will put off, because we don't think it's essential to do right now. So the team is absolutely doing that look. Having said that, We're also protecting our innovation roadmap as well as essential hires in other parts of the company as we scale the business. We have very ambitious product plans as you know, and we're going to continue to protect that roadmap because that's what drives the success of our customers and our long term success and that's what creates the long term shareholder value in the company. So that's the balance we're doing.

Operator

Protecting the innovation roadmaps, we're protecting activities that drive that long term shareholder growth including things like capacity expansions, IBD capabilities, commercial expansions in targeted markets and sort of maintaining that balance.

Speaker 1

Yes. I would also add, we continue to have productivity improvements on our Gross margin side as well, right? So that's of course despite the reduced volume that we have seen this year, Some of those improvements are contributing to increased gross and operating margin as well.

Speaker 2

We'll take our next question from Vijay Kumar with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Francis, maybe a 2 part question for you. Your guidance for the back half, it implies 1% growth. You just did 3% in 2Q.

Speaker 10

Are you is the guide assuming in the things to worsen from 2Q levels, because if I understood you, some of these are temporal factors. If I look at your Inventory on hand, I don't think your customers stock up 12 months. So shouldn't some of these factors reverse? How conservative is this guidance for the back half? And on Chemistry X, I think that we've heard a 30% price cut, 20%, 30% somewhere in the ballpark.

Speaker 10

Does it have any implication to have revenue growth for fiscal 2023? Thank you.

Operator

Yes. So thank you, Vijay. Let me start with the first part of the question, which is Q3 guidance, sort of what's driving that number. And so I'll talk about some of the factors that are driving that number. If you and if you normalize the impacts I'm talking about, the growth It's higher and I'll come back to that as well.

Operator

So some of the factors that are driving it are the headwinds that I talked about. There is a headwind around COVID surveillance demand pulling back that's playing out in Q3 as well. There's obviously a foreign exchange headwind and the tough compare with the U. K. Biobank that concludes in Q3.

Operator

So That's another factor playing out in Q3. We also expect the continued slower GDP growth in in China growth, and that will play on us. And then the two factors I talked about, sort of inventory management and the lab expansion delay. So Those are some of the factors that we factored in, in giving the guide for Q3. And obviously, if you normalize for those factors, then you're looking at a significantly higher growth rates in Q3.

Speaker 2

We'll take our last question from Jack Meehan with Nephron. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Good afternoon. Francis, I have a 2 part question for you on GRAIL. So the first is just Given the prolonged regulatory uncertainty here, is there a point where you could choose to walk away? What's your conviction level on getting this done?

Speaker 11

And then second off that, obviously, now isn't the most accommodative environment for capital markets activity. So in a scenario where you might Have to spin rail out, how would you fund the ongoing operations? I look at your balance sheet after the BGI payment and the Define, you have your remarks through European Commission, you have roughly $550,000,000 of unrestricted cash. So just talk about If you got to that, how would you finance a spin if it ends up there?

Operator

Yes. So I'll start by saying that Our focus is going to be continually to focus on and think about the things that create the most long term shareholder value. And as we embarked on this process, as you said, we clearly felt that combining Gral and Illumina creates the most long term shareholder value. I'll give you an example, right? So even on their own largely, the GRAIL team was able to achieve the fastest 12 month ramp of any cancer screening test in history as we've said.

Operator

And I imagine what that could have been with the power of Illumina behind it. And if we think forward, What could we do if we were able to take that test into markets like Europe and Asia and Africa beyond the plans that GRAIL could have. And so that's sort of what drove our thinking. Having said that, we're going to continually assess as we work through this process, what are the right next steps. And there obviously are a set of nodes on The decision tree that would lead us to either spinning out Grille because the regulatory process doesn't go our way or contemplate other forms of exit.

Operator

So there's dividend in the back. And so we're going to continue to assess that as we work through the regulatory process. In terms of your question around funding the operations, that's absolutely going to be a consideration as we contemplate The options on how we have to spin GRAIL out, right? So the idea is that what you'd want to do is make sure that you protected the asset value to allow GRAIL to continue to execute on its mission. And so that means making sure that it's capitalized, so it can continue to be successful, as well as it has access to future capital that will need for its own expansion plans.

Operator

And that's going to be a combination of the Lumina, but other shareholders too potentially and other people who will reject capital, both maybe at the time of divestiture, but then over time as well. And so those are some of the considerations as we think about what a divestment would look like. How do we how would we set it up to be successful and what's the path for it to continue to be successful? Obviously, those are not decisions that we're making today, but those are some of the considerations that would go into it.

Speaker 2

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q and A session. I I will now turn the call back over to Sallie Schwartz.

Speaker 12

Thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, a replay of this call will be available in the Investors section of our website. This concludes our call, and we look forward to our next update with you at Investor today on October 3rd.

Speaker 2

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.

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