American Vanguard Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 8, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Bill Koozer, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Thank you, Bill. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Well, thank you very much, Alicia. Welcome everyone to American Vanguard's 3rd quarter 9 month earnings review. Our speakers today will be Mr. Eric Wintemute, the Chairman and CEO of American Vanguard Mr. David Johnson, the Company's Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 1

Formal presentation. Also assisting in answering your questions, Mr. Bob Trogell, the company's Chief Operating Officer. Before beginning, let's take a moment for our usual cautionary reminder. In today's call, the company may discuss forward looking information.

Speaker 1

Such information and statements are based on estimates and assumptions by the company's management and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from management's current expectations. Such factors could include weather conditions, changes in regulatory policy, competitive pressures and a variety of other risks that are detailed in the company's SEC reports and filings. All forward looking statements represent the company's best formal judgment as of this date. Such information will not necessarily be updated by the company. With that said, we turn the call over to Eric.

Speaker 2

Lines. Thank you, Bill. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. This is a challenging time for American Vanguard and for our entire sector.

Speaker 2

Our stock price has been under heavy pressure as has that of our competitors. Accordingly, as per Slide number 5, I want to first talk about what we are doing to improve our short And long term profitability. I believe that growing profitability in current market conditions will require us to take strong calculated measures. We are preparing to take those measures including cost margin improvement initiatives, digital transformation and structural design review. We are confident that we and our investors will be rewarded by them.

Speaker 2

After discussion of these measures, I will give detail on the full year 2023 targets and our 2024 outlook. In short, we expect to rebound in Q4 and are optimistic about the upcoming year. 1st, however, let's get into what we are doing to improve profitability. To start, A bit of background is necessary. Over the past 13 years, we have grown both in size and complexity.

Speaker 2

13 years ago, we were essentially a domestic business that was largely dependent on the U. S. Corn market. Since then, as you will see on Slide number 6, predominantly through acquisitions, our operations have grown into 21 countries, including 6 manufacturing facilities and 3 R and D centers. We have developed or acquired over 500 pending or issued patents and have increased our market access into more than 50 countries with a broad balanced product portfolio led by fruits and vegetables.

Speaker 2

Due to our rapid growth, our next evolution in ARIES phase is to strengthen the support of our enterprise with fully integrated systems and optimal organizational design. To that end, in the Q2, we reached out to one of our Board members, Mark Bassett, who has a strong history of improving profits in a number of businesses. Formal presentation to take a look at our operations and consultation with our senior management team. Accordingly, over a 10 week period, Mark had open access to our day to day operations and met with executive leaders and business process owners. At the conclusion, of the company with a comprehensive set of recommendations and senior management along with another board member, Pat Gottschek Crafted transformation plan designed to drive growth while improving operating leverage.

Speaker 2

We're pleased to announce we've begun implementation of the plan as follows. 1st, as per slide 7, we have reviewed the sales plan and operating expenses On a line item level with each of our department heads, we have focused on driving improvements in gross margin And achieving greater operational efficiency. Further, I have given each department a target that when achieved We collectively add $15,000,000 to operating profit and interest savings to our 2024 internal budget. We will make each manager responsible for these measures, track them over the course of the next year and assess his or her performance based upon achieving these targets. These measures include a variety of parameters such as working capital management, greater factory efficiency, operating expense control, reduced RAS and freight and lower debt and interest expense.

Speaker 2

2nd, as you will see on Slide number 8, we are implementing a complete digital transformation across all business centers and processes. At present, we have 33 business centers throughout the world. It is imperative that these centers work seamlessly to provide real time data based on universal standards. To that end, we have chosen QAD's adaptive ERP as our system of choice to drive end to end scalability, standardization and integration across the globe. Further, we have retained global business consultant, Kearney Management, to help us define and more streamline An efficient future state for our process owners throughout the business.

Speaker 2

They will be asking, what do you need to do your job more effectively? To that end, Kearney and QAD are meeting with the leaders of our major business processes, including sales and marketing, factory operation, finance and human resources to establish a business vision, align on improvement and priorities And to define the needs and identify the tools and processes that will enable us to meet our growth and business ambitions. This in turn will enable us to react faster and make better forecasts in the face of volatile markets, supply chains, climate and geopolitical shifts. 3rd, turning to slide number 9, We are launching an organizational transformation in which we evaluate closely the way we are structured, how we are incentivized to operate and how best to gain greatest efficiencies and operating leverage. We will need dedicated resources to lead a structural transformation process.

Speaker 2

To that end, Sharon Khosravi, our recently hired Senior Vice President of Human Resources is leading the search to hire an experienced Chief Transformation Officer. That person working with our internal team and external business consultants will evaluate and benchmark the capital requirements, staffing and performance of our various businesses. The CTO will in turn recommend appropriate organizational changes And in collaboration with Suren, we'll define key performance indicators and align functions and personnel to achieve business results. Through those efforts over the course of the next 12 months, we will transform our current structure into a more efficient engine for growth. Next, let's turn to David for his comments on our Q3 year to date 2020

Speaker 3

the Thank you, Eric. Before moving on, we will file our 10 Q this afternoon. Moving to Slide 11, With regard to our sales performance for the Q3 of 2023, the company's net sales decreased by 2% to $150,000,000 as compared to $152,000,000 last year. Within that overall decline in sales, our U. S.

Speaker 3

Sales declined by 1% Compared to prior year to $87,000,000 and our international sales decreased by 3% to $63,000,000 International sales accounted for 42% of total, which was in line with last year. The decrease in sales can mainly be attributed the destocking by customers, managing their working capital levels due to high interest rates, the unavailability of 1 of our premium herbicides And in our businesses in Central and South America, the influence of low cost generic products exported to multiple markets from China based suppliers Working within a strained economy. Turning to Slide 12. Overall cost of sales, which include higher slightly higher net manufacturing costs increased by 4%, almost 71% of sales in 2023 as compared to 67% for the same period of 2022. This resulted in a 13% decrease in gross profit $243,000,000 in 2023 from 49,000,638 1,000 in 2022 and a consequent gross margin decline to 29% of net sales in 2023 from 33% in the same period of last year.

Speaker 3

The decline in gross profit for the 3 months ended September 30 Is due to slightly lower sales as we manage through the global destocking process, unavailability of Dactyl for the U. S. Crop business and pressure from low cost Chinese produced generic products in Brazil and Central America. On to Slide 13, which shows operating expenses for the quarter that were in line with the same period of the prior year. In the Q3 of 2023 as compared to the same period of the prior year, we experienced inflation related higher wages, increased spending related to our SIMPAS system and expanded state product registrations in Brazil, offset by lower legal expenses, reduced travel cost and incentive compensation expenses reflecting our financial performance.

Speaker 3

As you will see on Slide 14, as a result of factors Eric and I have discussed, our Q3 2023 operating income amounted to $4,200,000 as compared to $11,200,000 last year. We recorded significantly higher interest expense as compared to last due to both higher average debt and higher interest rates. The increase in debt levels Is primarily a result of customer decisions to slow down purchasing from buying early to now buying as close to time of use as possible, Effectively pushing working capital pressure back to manufacturers such as ourselves as the markets are departing from the practice Of holding greater safety stocks formed during COVID, key market participants such as big distributors and retailers And now vigorously resetting business practices such as inventory management to get back to pre pandemic practices in the face of significant escalation in global interest rates. As the company has pointed out, this inflection point is driving markets We serve to extremely low levels of channel inventory that logically must soon start to refill in order to serve customer needs the 2020 three-twenty four season. From a tax perspective, our effective tax rate increased to 158 3% from 31% last year.

Speaker 3

The change is primarily attributable to the low level of underlying profitability for the reasons just described. And as a result of losses incurred at certain entities, primarily in Brazil, Which did not result in a benefit for income tax purposes as these entities continue to maintain valuation allowances against their net deferred tax assets. All these factors together resulted in a net loss of $325,000 this quarter compared to net income of $6,700,000

Speaker 4

last year.

Speaker 3

On Slide 15, you can see that for the 9 months of 2023, our sales are down 10% and gross profit decreased by 17%. Our domestic sales suffered a decline in sales 14%, but our international sales were down 3% as compared to the comparable period last year. The The reduction in gross profit for the 9 months ended September 30 is consistent with the 3 months and resulted from lower overall sales global destocking and availability of our premium herbicide Dactyl and the effect of Chinese produced low price generic products in our markets in Central and South America. Operating expenses during the 9 months to September 30, 2023 were flat the As compared to the same period of 2022, we experienced an increase in wages due to inflation, increased travel activities at the start of the year that Since reduced, higher R and D expenses associated with infield activities in support of our proprietary delivery systems And international product defense and registration expenses supporting strong expectations for sales growth in 2024 and beyond. These increases were offset by lower incentive compensation expenses related to our financial performance, lower legal expenses as well as beneficial movements in foreign currencies in markets we operate versus the U.

Speaker 3

S. Dollar. Year to date interest expense increased significantly to $8,300,000 from $2,840,000 compared to $23,500,000 last year. On slide 16, you can see that at the end of September 2023, we reported inventories at $248,000,000 from some logistics challenges resulting in the unavailability of 2 of our premium products, Astec and Dactyl. Our customers were unable to buy these products during this break in supply.

Speaker 3

This year, the company has dealt with those logistics and regulatory challenges And is in position to supply all market needs for the 2023, 'twenty four season. The graph shows inventory expressed as a percentage the of the trailing 12 month sales. We believe that we will be able to reduce inventory to more normal levels as sales demand normalizes. I'd next like to turn to the subject of cash and liquidity. As you're aware, And we have depicted on Slide number 17, interest rates have risen sharply over the past 2 years.

Speaker 3

As Eric has mentioned, This has given rise to global destocking activity. In light of these higher rates, adverse market conditions and supply chain disruption, About 45 days ago, we approached our senior lenders led by BMO to negotiate an expansion of our financial covenants. As in the past, our lending group, which includes banks and farm credits that are very familiar with the global agricultural industry, We're supportive and acted quickly to amend the senior credit facility to give us a secure runway through to September of 2024. During this period, interest costs will be half a percentage higher than normal. However, we will be able to revert to lower interest rates before the end of the period as our financial performance improves.

Speaker 3

I will note that for the duration of the amendment period, we will not be the the 7,500,000 share repurchase plan that the Board had authorized earlier this year. We thank BMO and our lender group for their continued support.

Speaker 2

In our earnings release and as reflected in Slide number 18, we expect to see a rebound in the 4th quarter. We are 70% complete on our production of Aztec, our leading corn soil insecticide and sales are strong for the quarter. Similarly, we expect to begin supplying Dactyl to our customers this week. These will be our first Dactyl shipments in over a year. Again, these and other products are at historic lows with channel inventory.

Speaker 2

In light of market conditions and our sales trends, We are targeting full year 2023 revenue between $580,000,000 $590,000,000 gross margins of 30% to 31%, Operating expenses between $152,000,000 $154,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA between $55,000,000 $59,000,000 We will suspend judgment on net income for now and in further analysis of our full year global tax impact. To put our performance in perspective and depicted on Slide number 19, We reviewed recent financial statements of a set of our publicly traded peers and found that with respect to Q3 'twenty three, those peers average decline in net sales of 21%, while we were down 2%. With respect to net sales for year to date, those peers averaged a decline of about 13% while we were down about 10%. Extrapolating from our previous slide, we expect to be down about 3% to 5% year over year. Before turning to 24, I want to give a few quick thoughts on the other growth initiatives.

Speaker 2

As you may have noticed from our press release yesterday and appearing on Slide number 20, Our Green Solutions business has announced an expansion of its partnership with New Leaf Symbiotics, by which we will be collaborating New Leaf brings to us its proprietary microbial library, proven research and development capabilities about 10% in 2023 as compared to 'twenty two. The addition of new leaf products will bolster Green Solutions growth We're delivering 18 units to Brazil, which will be used by several of the largest growers in the country in this upcoming December, January planting. Further, we anticipate that north of 250 SIMPAS units will be utilized in the United States to deliver SIMPAS applied solutions in the upcoming 24 season. Let's close with my thoughts on the 2024 outlook. Within our industry, there has been a great sense of optimism about 24.

Speaker 2

That said, I note that some of our peers have indicated continued channel inventory headwinds in certain geographical locations. However, according to a survey conducted by Umqua Bank of 12 50 executives At small and middle market agricultural companies, over half of the respondents expect improvement in overall economic conditions. Nearly 60% of that group expect increased revenues over 24% and nearly 70% expect improved profitability during that same period. Granted surveys are not the final word on how the future will unfold. However, there is good reason for sharing this optimism as we have in Slide number 22.

Speaker 2

First, the The farm economy is strong with relatively stable commodity pricing. 2nd, although the distribution channel has shifted its procurement patterns closer to time of use and they and more important growers need crop inputs to meet the demand for food, which is unchanged. 3rd, as a result of the 23 destocking activity by our customers on the whole, Channel inventory of many of our products remains low. 4th, while not immune to the pressure of generic products, We feature a range of higher margin proprietary products that have kept their value and appeal in variable market conditions. In short, while there has been a recalibration of markets in certain regions and a shift in the timing of sales order, the market is sound.

Speaker 2

Consequently, based upon recent sales activity, preceding the 'twenty four planting season and the factors that I have just discussed, targeting 8% to 12% growth in net sales and 25% to 35% growth in adjusted EBITDA for full year 'twenty four. A closing note after measuring our performance initiatives, getting a more definitive sense of Q4 And refining our outlook on 2024 and beyond, we'll be holding a call in January to provide a further update. With that, I'll turn the call over to our operator, Alicia, for any questions you may have.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Brandon Rogers with ROTH Capital Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Hello. This is Brandon Rogers on for Gerry Sweeney at ROTH Capital.

Speaker 6

I

Speaker 5

just had a few questions around the destocking progress. Do you have any visibility into how this is progressing? And do you feel you're through majority of it? And what will it take to get inventories to expand again? Is it purely low interest rates or service requirements come into play?

Speaker 2

Okay. Good question. So with regard to inventories and I can start With U. S, we have pretty good visibility of what is in the channels. We've counted that with ADI, which You know, it's amazing of what actually went out to the retail levels.

Speaker 2

And use of our products We're up in 'twenty three versus 'twenty two. And just Brandon, maybe Mike go on mute because we can hear your typing. I think it's you. No problem. And as such, again, we know our corn soil insecticides are low, particularly our Astec was down to about 7.5% and normal is probably in that 27%, 28% range.

Speaker 2

Dactyl, we mentioned that's been out. We haven't had product for sale for over a year, so we know that's very low. As we look across our cotton products, again, it was a decent year, and we did not we We don't have much left in the channels. Our herbicide impact, I think we do have Some inventory in the channel there that's we did have some purchases. But I think the initial issues of where inventories were large globally, I think herbicides We're kind of up there along with nutrition.

Speaker 2

So we have a little effect there, but across the vast amount of our product line in

Speaker 3

the U.

Speaker 2

S. Again, inventories are low. As we go outside or let's just say in the U. S. With our non crop business, Yes.

Speaker 2

Our distributors have gone again, as we mentioned, from maybe 120 to 100 and 80 day stocking down to 20 to 40 days. So their inventories are very low. We're seeing lots of orders coming in each day, but They add up to be nice, but there are a lot of smaller orders. Seems similar in Brazil, what we might And we'll probably triple the orders that we've seen on a daily basis. So people are ordering kind of just what they need.

Speaker 2

The And that's okay as long as the demand actual use is normalized, then It just means that we've got a lot more individual orders. So I think as we look globally, I'd look at some of the comments of our peers. I think that there is still pressure probably in Central and South America where we have seen more challenge to our margin in the last couple of cycles As lower cost goods or goods that are oversupplied move through the channel. So I don't know if I answered the

Speaker 5

question. Thank you for that color. And then if I could just ask one more kind of Going off that, so the Astec and Dactyl low inventory impacted 2023 results. You said that you are in position to supply Dactyl and S. T.

Speaker 5

E. For 2024. Can you quantify the total impacts for 2023 and do you believe this is recoverable in 2024?

Speaker 2

So 23,000,000 on Dactyl was in the $20,000,000 range. Normal for Astec might be in the $45,000,000 to $50,000,000 maybe $50,000,000 range. And so we had 0 DACDAL available since Q3 last year. We did have a pretty good Q3 last year, which definitely affected this year's profitability if you look at the margins. And then on Astec, we basically had nothing available in Q4, and we had Just under 30% of the market that we needed or the volume that we service the 'twenty three season.

Speaker 2

So those are kind of the sales numbers and the 20,000,000 For Dactyl is probably a little higher than norm because we knew we were having a supply channel issue. And so it might be more normalized into the $15,000,000 to $16,000,000 range. But combined, it's a big number when you look at a company our size.

Speaker 5

Awesome. Thank you. I'll hop back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Capps with Loop Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Yes, good afternoon. So I got a few buckets of questions, I guess. But curious On the gross margin degradation on a year over year basis, 33% to 29%, if you have a sense for If this was mostly a function of, I don't know if you can parse it, but a function of your volumes being lower or was it the function of the competitive pressures from either the industry conditions or the aggressive Exporting of the Chinese generics and that having an effect on your prices and therefore compressing gross margins. Any way to parse that? Just and I'm curious more generally if you feel this pressure is purely Transient and cyclical and unique or is it something more structural in nature?

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Chris. If you look at the let's use the 9 month to date, we're looking at about $25,000,000 in margin differential. About half of that is due to strictly the $43,000,000 of sales that we didn't have and a lot of that is driven by the 2 products that we talked about. And then with those products, again, those are higher margin products.

Speaker 2

And as such, without those in our mix and they're in the 60 plus percent range, That definitely weighs down the average. There were from the Chinese pressures, we saw that Certainly in Central America, I mean, we've got a number of unique products, but there are more generic products that they have. They have products that come again from China. In Brazil, we have Kind of an oil product that is a pretty big volume for us, but margins on that were very, very And then also we have copper products that come from Norway and there was strong generic I mean, the Greenhouse, I think margins were holding strong. Australia was has had pressure as well.

Speaker 2

They don't have a lot of generic pressure, but they do have generic similar chemistries that put pressure on their margins also. So that being said, I think it is a region by region recovery based upon What kind of channel inventories there are? It does look like the cost of generic Products coming out of China seem to have stabilized. So I would expect that We would see as inventory does clear the channel and again there are some pockets of inventory in various areas. I think some certainly, Bob, you might comment on Asia or Europe.

Speaker 2

We don't anticipate to any degree Asia. It's not a big area for us, but just maybe 2 quarters from the same boat.

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, Chris. So you have to realize that over percent of our business is in the U. S. And we've got a pretty good view there, transparent view on what the channel inventory is.

Speaker 6

Eric has described it. That's a real positive for us going into 2024, especially with the two products he described. We have a very light footprint in Eurasia where you have a lot of geopolitical disruption and some trade disruption. So So we don't have any exposure there, so that's a positive for us. Our Green Solutions business, as Eric has mentioned, we're launching new products, Doing new deals, more to come here potentially in the next few weeks.

Speaker 6

Our technology is expanding. In the SIMPAS area, Brazil, I'm excited about Brazil simply because that's a great market access tool for us. And As the systems go down there, we're going to see the yield results in the spring. As you know, they're in a different cycle than we are. We expect good results.

Speaker 6

And so there will be a lot of potential going into the end of 2024 in Brazil. And then the market is down. So if you really read some of the text of the market in general, I think we're going to see good acquisition opportunities, both on the business front but also on the talent front because some people will be downsizing so we can strengthen Our team where necessary, so lots of good things happening, I think, for us in that sense. I mean, we're cautiously Optimistic simply because there is still a different buying behavior in the channel and The market has to reset with the higher inflation, and we're in the process of doing that. Sorry, I'll hand back to you.

Speaker 5

Chris?

Speaker 7

Yes. So questions on thanks for that color by the way. But focused on sort of the progression in 4th quarter and then into next year. The implied sales run rate is one that's never been achieved before for the Q4 against the backdrop where the buyer behavior is closer to time of use. So I want to reconcile that.

Speaker 7

But then even if you do, say, have that strong 4th quarter And then you've given preliminary indication of EBITDA expectations or growth expectations for next year On that recovering EBITDA, so I'm curious about the visibility around the 4th quarter, but then on 24 years, if you take the midpoint of your range on EBITDA growth for next year 30%. That would imply if you reach the call it $57,000,000 in EBITDA this year, You get to 30%, 74% next year. I'm curious so that's a $17,000,000 improvement. You're expecting 15, I think, from the transformation plan. Maybe that's not Day 1, January 1, for a full run rate.

Speaker 7

So I'm just wondering if you could sort of parse these numbers. How much of The visibility and confidence around the Q4 run rate and what if you achieve that level, but just the confidence, what needs to happen to meet that 30% EBITDA growth and how much of this expected savings from a transformation plan feeds into that?

Speaker 2

So again, Q4, again, having not hit our estimates for the last 4 periods. Again, we emphasize to our team, You've got to put more focus into understanding those numbers, communicating more with our customers, getting commitments, Doing supply plans and obviously Can't predict geopolitical problems that may occur, but just taking the fact that we had no Aztec And the Q4 at all, and that's really generally our biggest quarter for Astec. Having Dactyl, for the last four quarters, those two alone Lead us to be very strong on what we're going to see in Q4. I will say in October, In our OHP and our AmGuard lines, we saw very strong quarters. We saw a Good strong quarter in LatAm and Mexico in October.

Speaker 2

So we've got pretty good optimism of outlook for Q4. Moving forward, yes, the $15,000,000 there are some areas that we've identified that Will be in place by January 1, but a number of them will be implemented during course of the year and phased in so that we would see kind of the full effect of that in the 25 year. We also we have a plan. We are we have we're kind of really into our 3rd year Trying to get our entire fleet on board with the same QAD system, we're now focused more on Pushing forward at a faster rate on that in 'twenty four, so that by the time we get to 'twenty four, we'll be essentially where we want to be. So yes, there are potential upsides and what As well as we'll have a better outlook of how well the 24 years are going to unfold, which is why we're scheduling that call probably the later half of January, so that we can update on kind of the KPIs we've put in place to measure how we're tracking versus that $15,000,000 what that outlook looks like for the balance of the year.

Speaker 2

And then as well, the Our team gives a forecast. Every business unit does the 10th of each month. So with regards to our 'twenty four outlook. And again, budgets are begun in July of the previous year. We've been Tuning that budget based upon the measures that we're taking.

Speaker 2

But then as we get into January, we'll know what happened In Q4, at least as far as revenue is concerned and have a much better view of how that 24 year is going to shape up.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's helpful. And I had also maybe just a quick one for David. The on the covenant amendments, if you achieve that 74, I'm assuming you're in full compliance with pre amendment covenants, is that accurate? Just wondering like what the nature of the amendments were and what you see in terms of what needs to happen in order to To get fully back in compliance and just if you could just like talk about what the cost is for these amendments

Speaker 2

Just to clarify for David. So the amendments are essentially giving us more leeway on the debt to EBITDA ratio. I guess we've set this up purposely so that if our Q4 goes according to plan that we're in a position to pull ourselves Out of that, which would save us 0.5%. So again, kind of a function too of how much cash We collected at the year end, we'll determine what our debt to EBITDA ratio is. And then as far as the charge, Go ahead.

Speaker 3

So the cost was about $400,000 and then 0.5% On the interest rate for the duration of the amendment period, which as Eric just described, Could be as long as through September of 2024, but we could exit it early If our forecast for Q4 and the start of 2024 come through well.

Speaker 2

And that $400,000,000 just so you know, It's not a hit in the Q4. It's amortized over the life of the remaining life. Yes. It takes us through 26. Yes.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Wayne Pinsent with Gabiels Funds. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Eric, so you touched on it a little bit there. Just curious on How quickly we'll be achieving the $15,000,000 of cost savings? And you mentioned that you'll probably see the full amount in 2025, but just the cadence there, How much of it, because I saw in the press release you mentioned it was operational, but also interest savings. So what's the breakdown there?

Speaker 4

And then have you identified any one time or ongoing costs with that program?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, there'll be some capitalization certainly as we move faster On the QAD system, there's that is capitalized and kind of amortized over a 5 year period. If I mean, if you look at each one of those comes with a different piece as far as phase in. So Let's just take raw materials, for example. We've identified some contracts that we're going to have that will go in place into the Q1.

Speaker 2

And As those benefits occur in manufacturing, we actually will see that pick up and it would be in margin, We would see that occur in as it gets sold. And normally, we kind of figure there's like a 90 day delay time from manufacturing to sale, but Obviously, it depends on each SKU. With regards to one time charges, We're looking at that now. I think with our bank and our agreement with them, We can do each year, I think it's $5,000,000 of one time charge, which does not affect our adjusted EBITDA with regards to the bank. So I don't know if that gives you the color or whether you've got a clarifying question on that.

Speaker 4

Okay. So that's kind of what we could expect you going at that $5,000,000 or under run rate and cost for this going forward.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 4

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Helton, a Private Investor. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Okay. Hi, guys. I just had a quick question with the recent kind of business agreement between AGCO and Trimble. Does this complicate your sales program with your SIMPAS equipment?

Speaker 2

Good question. So Bob and I have had discussions with AGCO, but Bob has followed through And has probably better insight on that than I do, but

Speaker 6

So three quick points, Steve. We see that as a positive. It expands our distribution network. ETCO has over 2,000 distribution points. So therefore, we see much more opportunities.

Speaker 6

We don't have to wait until that deal goes through. We've already Started that process. 2, we see a lot of cross selling opportunities between precision planting And our systems, we've been working with AGCO for 8 years. So there is already a relationship in place. We'll just reinforce that.

Speaker 6

And then I think 3, there's an action list we've already agreed with management To start in 2024 for the 2025 season. So I hope that gives you color if you have a follow-up question.

Speaker 8

Yes. No, that helps a lot. I was just kind of curious, I didn't know if AGCO had exactly something similar To the SIMPAS equipment or if you guys might fit in well with them? We're symbiotic.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Kratz with Loop Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Yes, I had a couple of follow ups. Just so as you look through the Q4 and next year, Just curious as you if you achieve these levels like how much of your inventory will you be able to sort of liquidate And therefore, working capital can be turned to or generate sorry, become a source of cash and the implications for your debt position either end of this year if you have that strong Q4 or through 2024?

Speaker 2

That's a very good question. I mean, I think we're looking to reduce about 39 in Q4.

Speaker 3

30 more. 35, something like

Speaker 2

that. Okay. In inventory. In Q4. I can tell you that part of our process that we're doing is understanding where we're deploying our working capital.

Speaker 2

It's not that it's something we shouldn't have been focused on at all times, but it's a completely different picture When you're paying 7% interest versus 2.75% interest. So as such, there's been a strong We look at each of our inventory items globally and targets that are set to bring those down dramatically from where they have been, particularly concerning our products that we may be storing that Our lower margin products and I think all along as we've acquired some of these distribution businesses, We told them essentially we really are not focused on top line. All we're driving is bottom line. So If you've got low margin products, let somebody else sell them, focus on building higher margin volume products. We're going to need to improve working capital deployment and deployment across.

Speaker 2

So we'll give a little more granular view and target Specifically to each of the entities, and as we mentioned, we'll hold them accountable to get to those numbers.

Speaker 7

Sorry, just as a follow-up to that, would and I don't know if this is there any part of the transformation plan that examines and looks at the your product SKUs that where there might be some that aren't just simply aren't Profitable and therefore might be candidates for rationalization or is the transformation plan really just focused more on operational measures.

Speaker 2

We're focused on all aspects, including margin justification Of products that we would have in inventory. Again, our customer a number of our customers kind of have gone to distributors to the order billing side. And so as such, we've got to kind of reevaluate the what we're going to do with our products. We're not a bank. We're not set up to be a bank.

Speaker 2

And we need to make sure that as we deploy capital, we're getting the best return on our capital that we can. So yes, we're examining all aspects.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then one other question, sort of, I perused fire Monsanto results. I think it was this morning. And it was interesting The seeds and traits business is up and healthy and positive pricing and the seeds subjected to this Downbeat sort of backdrop and then obviously with for them pretty pronounced pressures on glyphosate and other crop chemistry. But they so curious, is there any sort of bifurcation in your portfolio along those lines where some of your products are more subject to those pressures than others.

Speaker 7

So that's one question. Then The second was they also mentioned that and this is pretty well understood, I guess, by the broader market that given the corn to soy ratio that there will be a shift in acreage most likely from corn to soy. Just wondering what the net implications of that, If any, on your portfolio on a normal year. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure. So as far as kind of generic, there's not a product that has more generic pressure than glyphosate, I believe globally. And that's not a product that we play in. They have Geoplasm historic that's associated with that molecule. And so I think from a seed standpoint, that That remains healthy, which tells you that the demand is still there for planting and the crop inputs.

Speaker 2

But We do not have a great deal of exposure to generic. We're not immune to it. Obviously, as I said, we're seeing Central America maybe is having more pressure than some of our other areas. But with regard to the second part of your question, I'm sorry, what was the second piece? I missed it.

Speaker 7

It's on the acreage shift.

Speaker 2

Oh, yes, shift was related from the corn, sorry. Yes. I mean, we're effectively on with our corn, we're effectively on Those are high pressure areas which typically tend to be Corn on corn, they don't shift like you would see in some of their areas where their acres that Even let's say in the South that corn, soybean shift or even in the cotton. We have a growing portfolio of products on soybeans and we have our SIMPAS or Applied Solutions products on soybeans as well. So I think that was part of our strategy was to add to our portfolio for SIMPAS, soybean products as well as cotton products and peanut products so that people using our SimPass system could use it on multi crops.

Speaker 2

But yes, there's I mean, going from 90,000,000 acres of corn to 88,000,000 acres of corn on the 2,500,000 acres that we're involved in with our corn and soy insecticide really doesn't have And it's more ours is more based upon corn rootworm pressure. And one of the things we're happy about this year, launching Into, well, I think we're getting off this year with our Bio Our next Silway product that will also be for low corn rootworm pressure. And again, this is our first real commercial launch. As you know, we did a trial launch last year and moved a Fair amount of product in a very short window, but in addition to corn and soybean specific, we have peanut and cotton Biowake products and then our new product which would be controlling in light

Operator

floor back over to Eric Windermute for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, I hope this is the last quarter for some time to come where we do not meet expectations. It's been a tough time and I appreciate the pressure that is upon us the performance of our company. But we believe we've taken very nice corrective approach for as we head into the Q4 into the 'twenty four season and look forward to giving you an update report when we get together in January. So with that, thank you very much for attending.

Speaker 2

Bye bye.

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Earnings Conference Call
American Vanguard Q3 2023
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