3M Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 25, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 3 ms First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. It is recommended that you use a landline phone if you're going to register for a question.

Operator

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Tuesday, April 25, 2023. I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at 3 ms.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, And welcome to our Q1 earnings conference call. With me today are Mike Roman, 3 ms's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Mohnish Patelawala, our Chief Financial and Transformation Officer. Mike and Mohnish will make some formal comments, Then we will take your questions. Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call Are posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com. Please turn to Slide 2.

Speaker 1

Please take a moment to read the forward looking statement. During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3 ms's future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10 ks List some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions. Please note, throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 1

Reconciliations of the non GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release. With that, Please turn to Slide 3 and I'll now hand the call off to Mike. Mike?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Bruce. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before I recap our Q1, I want to discuss actions we are taking to improve our performance. As you recall, Over the past few years, we have implemented a new global operating model led by our 4 business groups, which included moving to a common global We have since advanced our digital capabilities, further repositioned our portfolio and continue to invest in growth and productivity. Our experience throughout this journey, including lessons learned during the pandemic, supply chain disruptions And changing global trends has shown us what is working and what we can do better.

Speaker 2

As I said last quarter, we are looking at everything we do. Today, we are announcing additional actions to improve our cost structure, streamline our corporate center, strengthen our supply chain, Enhance our go to market models and drive greater focus in markets where 3 ms Science gives us a clear competitive advantage. We will reduce costs at the corporate center by eliminating management layers across the company. We are broadly reducing our corporate shared services Like our central design group, we are reducing rooftops worldwide, including exiting our conference center in Northern Minnesota. We are also simplifying and modernizing our technology by moving to the cloud and removing hundreds of legacy systems.

Speaker 2

This reduces costs and provides us greater agility and flexibility to invest in differentiated digital areas like data, analytics and automation, While increasing investments in cybersecurity, we are simplifying our supply chain structure to better align with our businesses and improve performance in every aspect of plan, source, make and deliver, while adding industry expertise to help drive our progress. The The actions we are announcing today will help us complete our shift from area to global management, simplifying reporting lines and clarifying accountability. We are also taking out layers of management and duplication of activities across all areas of supply chain. Our progress in digital gives us better tools to use in the areas of planning, sourcing and logistics, Removing redundant work and improving productivity. And we will prioritize our continuous improvement efforts in our largest factory operations.

Speaker 2

We will have a more efficient support structure and operating model to improve service cost in inventory. We are streamlining go to market models to better align with customers, improve agility and reduce management structure. This is driven by our relentless focus on optimizing the path to our customer. We are not adopting a one size fits all approach. We are customizing an approach for each business that ensures greater focus.

Speaker 2

In Safety and Industrial In Transportation and Electronics, we will eliminate certain area based business group leadership and move to a division led model. In transportation and electronics, we will also combine 2 divisions, further reducing structure. In consumer, We will simplify how we go to market with each area team aligned around their prioritized product portfolios and leading brands. In addition, we are changing our go to market model in approximately 30 countries around the globe, which represent less than 5% of our revenue. In these countries, we will leverage our digital and export capabilities and move to a model partnering with distributors with deep local knowledge and infrastructure, enabling us to significantly reduce our people, real estate and other related costs.

Speaker 2

Through our actions, we plan to eliminate approximately 6,000 positions globally. In addition to the reduction of 1,500 global manufacturing roles we announced in January. In total, this represents about 10% of our global workforce and senior executive roles. Reductions will span all functions, businesses and geographies and be completed in accordance with local regulations. We expect to take total pre tax restructuring charges of $700,000,000 to $900,000,000 With approximately half of the charges to occur in 2023 and the balance to be largely taken in 2024, We anticipate the actions will drive savings in the range of $700,000,000 to $900,000,000 expand margins And position 3 ms for future growth.

Speaker 2

We estimate that approximately half of the annualized savings will be realized in 2023. At the same time, we are continuing to build 3 ms for the future, prioritizing high growth markets Like automotive electrification, personal safety, home improvement, semiconductors and healthcare. We are also investing in large emerging markets that demand our material science innovation, including climate technology, industrial automation, Next generation electronics and sustainable packaging. As we move forward, we will drive additional cost reductions Through improvements in sourcing, yield, productivity, factory automation and network optimization of our plants and distribution centers. Today, we are also announcing changes to align our leadership to our future direction.

Speaker 2

Effective immediately, Mike Vail is appointed Group President and Chief Business and Country Officer, a new role on the company's corporate operations committee reporting to me. In this new role, he will have responsibility for 3 of the company's 4 business groups: Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics and Consumer and also Country Governance. Jeff Lavers, who is leading our consumer and healthcare business, We'll now lead our healthcare business and support the company's progress towards a spin off and the transition to a new CEO and management team. Jeff continues to report to me. Karina Chavez will become Group President, Consumer.

Speaker 2

Chris Goralsky will become Group President, Safety and Industrial. Ashish Kanpur will continue as Group President, Transportation and Electronics. All 3 are experienced leaders at 3 ms and well positioned to help drive the actions we announced today to improve our performance. Karina, Chris and Ashish will report to Mike Vail. In total, today's actions will make 3 ms more streamlined and competitive.

Speaker 2

Now please turn to Slide 4 for a summary of our Q1. In an economic environment that remains challenging, We stayed relentlessly focused on serving customers and aggressively managed costs. We posted adjusted organic growth of minus 5.6% Or minus 2.2 percent excluding our Russia exit and decline in disposable respirator sales. We delivered adjusted margins of nearly 18% and adjusted earnings of $1.97 per share, While expanding our adjusted free cash flow to $900,000,000 today, we are affirming our full year guidance for organic growth, EPS and cash flow, which is inclusive of the restructuring charges and related savings. End market trends played out as expected with ongoing weakness in consumer facing markets.

Speaker 2

We saw continued strength in certain industrial markets, including automotive, electrical markets and abrasives. Our actions to reduce costs, which included plant spending, external services, Travel and hiring helped drive stronger than expected earnings and margins. We also continued to improve inventory levels, enabling us to deliver strong cash flow. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic priorities for long term value creation as we make progress on the spin of our healthcare business. Turning to litigation, on combat arms, 3 ms continues to support Arrow Technologies through mediation discussions.

Speaker 2

We are focused on achieving a resolution that is efficient and equitable for all parties. With respect to PFAS, we continue to address litigation by defending ourselves in court or negotiating resolutions as appropriate. We also have a dedicated team to facilitate an orderly transition as we exit PFAS manufacturing and work to discontinue the use of PFAS in our products by the end of 2025. In summary, We are improving day to day operational execution, advancing our strategic priorities and taking necessary actions to move 3 ms forward. We are dedicated to building on our progress, delivering greater value for our customers and shareholders and exiting 2023 A stronger and more focused 3 ms.

Speaker 2

Monesh will now take you through the details of the quarter. Monesh?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mike, and I wish you all a very good morning. Please turn to Slide 5. As Mike mentioned, The Q1 macro and end market trends have played out largely as anticipated. We experienced significant end market weakness in consumer electronics, Shifting consumer spending patterns along with the retailer destocking and mixed industrial end markets. We also continue to navigate COVID related impacts in China and the ongoing geopolitical challenges in Europe.

Speaker 3

Given the expected challenging start to the year, we relentlessly focused on serving our customers and took very aggressive actions To manage costs and spending, these actions coupled with the lower than expected foreign currency headwind enabled us to deliver a 1st quarter that was better than 1st quarter total adjusted sales was $7,700,000,000 or down 9.7% year on year. In addition to focusing on serving customers, 1st quarter sales benefited from a smaller than anticipated headwind To sales from foreign currency translation. The 1st quarter year on year translation impact was a minus 2.8% or approximately $230,000,000 versus a forecast of minus 3% to minus 4%. We also experienced a 1.3% sales decline from divestitures or approximately $120,000,000 versus Q1 last year. This decline was largely from the Q3 2022 divestiture of Food Safety along with the deconsolidation of Aero Technologies.

Speaker 3

On an adjusted organic basis, 1st quarter sales decreased 5.6% versus last year. This result included an expected year on year headwind of approximately $300,000,000 or 3.4 percentage points related to lower disposable respirator demand and the exit of our operations in Russia last year in the 3rd quarter. Excluding this decline, Q1 adjusted organic sales growth was minus 2.2%. 1st quarter adjusted operating income was $1,400,000,000 with operating margins of 17.9 percent And adjusted earnings of $1.97 Turning to the components that impacted 1st quarter operating margins Our Q1 margin and earnings reflect the previously mentioned lower sales volume. This lower sales volume combined with our efforts to reduce inventories resulted in lower manufacturing productivity versus last year's Q1.

Speaker 3

We were able to partially offset these headwinds through pricing performance and aggressive cost management, resulting in a net Headwind to margins of 90 basis points and $0.17 to earnings. As mentioned, We faced a challenging Q1 comp from last year's Omicron driven disposable respirator demand along with the exit of operations in Russia. This sales comp headwind resulted in a negative impact to operating margins of 1.1 percentage points and to earnings of $0.21 per share. We continued our focus on improving our manufacturing and supply chain operations, including executing on restructuring actions to streamline the organization and adjust to slowing end market demand. Restructuring charges in the quarter were $52,000,000 or a year on year headwind of 50 basis points to margin and $0.05 to earnings per share.

Speaker 3

The carryover impact of higher raw material, logistics and energy cost inflation Created a year on year headwind of approximately $100,000,000 or a negative 130 basis point impact to operating margins and $0.15 to earnings. As mentioned, foreign currency translation was a negative 2.8% impact This resulted in a headwind of 30 basis points to margins and $0.10 to earnings per share. Divestitures, primarily food safety, along with the deconsolidation of Aero Technologies, resulted in a year on year headwind of $0.03 to earnings per share in the quarter. Finally, Other financial items increased earnings by a net $0.05 per share year on year, driven by lower share count, partially offset by higher non op pension expense. Please turn to Slide 6.

Speaker 3

1st quarter adjusted free cash flow was approximately $950,000,000 up 24% Year on year with conversion of 87%, up 37 percentage points versus last year's Q1. This year on year improvement was driven by lower annual incentive cash compensation and a strong focus on working capital management, particularly inventory improvement. During the quarter, we continued to address manufacturing production levels to better align with end market Since last August, we have driven an approximately $500,000,000 reduction in inventory levels. As I've said before, as supply chains heal and we progress the use of data and data analytics, We will see a reduction in inventory levels. Adjusted capital expenditures were 4 $45,000,000 in the quarter, up 15% year on year as we continue to invest in growth, productivity and sustainability.

Speaker 3

During the quarter, we returned nearly $900,000,000 to shareholders. Net debt at the end of Q1 stood at $12,000,000,000 down 10% year on year with net debt to EBITDA at 1.5 times. Please turn to Slide 8 for our business group performance. I will start with our Safety and Industrial business, which posted sales of $2,800,000,000 or down 6% organically. This result Excluding the impact from disposable respirators and Russia exit, Safety and Industrial sales grew nearly 4% organically in Q1.

Speaker 3

Organic growth was led by high single digit increases in automotive aftermarket, electrical markets and abrasives. While the personal safety business declined mid teens primarily due to the decline in disposable respirator demand, Excluding the impact from disposable respirators, the Personal Safety business grew low double digits organically. Turning to the rest of Safety and Industrial. Organic growth declined high single digits in Industrial Adhesives and Tapes Due to consumer electronics softness and closure and masking systems was down low single digits As consumers pulled back on discretionary spending impacting e commerce shipments, roofing granules were down low single digits. Adjusted operating income was $562,000,000 or down 19% versus last year.

Speaker 3

Adjusted operating margins were 20.2%, down 2.4 percentage points year on year. Margin headwinds were driven by lower sales volume, manufacturing and supply chain headwinds, Carryover raw material logistics and energy cost inflation, investments in the business and impacts from China COVID related challenges. These headwinds were partially offset by benefits from pricing, Aggressive spending discipline and productivity actions. Moving to Transportation and Electronics On Slide 9, which posted Q1 adjusted sales of $1,700,000,000 Adjusted organic growth declined 11.3% year on year, heavily impacted by a significant decline In demand for consumer electronic devices, our auto OEM business increased approximately 6% year on year, In line with global car and light truck builds, we continue to gain penetration on new automotive platforms and expect to outperform build rates over the long run. Our Electronics business saw adjusted organic sales Clients in the mid-thirty percent range.

Speaker 3

This business continues to be impacted by significant end market weakness Along with tiers and OEMs aggressively reducing inventories, particularly for smartphones, tablets and TVs. Turning to the rest of Transportation and Electronics. Advanced Materials had adjusted organic growth of high single digits year on year, While both Transportation Safety and Commercial Solutions declined, Transportation and Electronics delivered $284,000,000 in adjusted operating income, down 36% year on year. Adjusted operating margins were 16.7 percent, down 5.5 percentage points year on year. Margin headwinds were driven by sales volume declines, manufacturing and supply chain headwinds, Carryover raw material, logistics and energy cost inflation, investments in the business and impacts from China COVID related challenges.

Speaker 3

These headwinds were partially offset by benefits from pricing, aggressive spending discipline and productivity actions. Looking at our Healthcare business on Slide 10, Q1 sales were $2,000,000,000 with organic growth of 1.4% versus last year. Excluding the impact from the exit of Russia, Healthcare grew Q1 organic sales by approximately 2%. Sales in our Medical Solutions business and oral Separation and purification declined high single digits due to the normalization of post COVID related biopharma demand. 1st quarter elective healthcare procedure volumes were approximately 90% of pre COVID levels As nurse labor shortages and strained hospital budgets continue to impact the pace of recovery.

Speaker 3

We continue to expect procedure volumes to improve as we progress through the year. Healthcare's 1st quarter operating income was $360,000,000 down 19% year on year. Operating margins were 17.9%, down 3 percentage points. Year on year operating margins were impacted by manufacturing and supply chain headwinds, Carryover raw material logistics and energy cost inflation and investments in the business. These headwinds were partially offset by benefits from pricing, aggressive spending discipline and productivity actions.

Speaker 3

Lastly, on Slide 11, our Consumer business posted 1st quarter sales of $1,200,000,000 Organic sales declined 6.8% year on year with particular weakness in the U. S. Which was down high single digits. Stationery and office grew low single digits organically year on year, while the home improvement and home health and auto care business declined Relative to Q1 last year, consumers have shifted their spending patterns To more non discretionary items and retailers have aggressively reduced their inventory levels. We expect consumers to remain cautious with their discretionary spending as we move forward through the year.

Speaker 3

Consumer's 1st quarter operating income was $179,000,000 down 18% compared to last year, With operating margins of 15%, down 1.8 percentage points year on year. The year on year decline in operating margins was driven by lower sales volume, manufacturing and supply chain headwinds and carryover raw material, logistics and energy cost inflation. These headwinds were partially offset by benefits from pricing, Aggressive spending discipline and productivity actions. That concludes our remarks on the Q1. Please turn to Slide 13 for a discussion on our outlook for the year and the second quarter.

Speaker 3

We are maintaining our full year guidance reflecting a macroeconomic and end market environment that remains very fluid and uncertain. Our outlook continues to incorporate the expected second half improvement in macroeconomic forecasts, including in China. We also anticipate the continued healing of global supply chains, which will help support ongoing product cost improvements In our manufacturing and supply chain operations, along with working capital performance, particularly inventory reductions. As a reminder, our full year adjusted organic sales growth is expected to be in the range of minus 3% to flat. This range includes an estimated 2 percentage point headwind from the ongoing decline in disposable respirator demand Along with the impact of our exit from Russia, adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $8.50 to $9 per share.

Speaker 3

Full year adjusted free cash flow conversion remains forecasted in the range of 90% to 100%. Turning to our outlook for the Q2. 1st, looking at external macroeconomic forecasts, Both global GDP and IPI are currently expected to improve year on year and sequentially. The softness we experienced in Q1 in consumer electronics and consumer retail is expected to continue into Q2. We expect both sequential and year on year increase in auto builds, while healthcare procedure volumes are anticipated to be similar to Q1 levels and industrial end markets are expected to remain mixed.

Speaker 3

As discussed, We implemented very aggressive cost controls in the Q1 given the challenging start to the year, including on travel, Advertising, external services and headcount management. While we will remain disciplined, we expect to increase investments as we progress through the year to support end market demand improvement in the second half and into the future. Including these factors, Our expectations for Q2 are for total adjusted sales to be in the range of $7,700,000,000 to $7,900,000,000 versus $8,400,000,000 last year or down 6% to 8% year on year. Organic sales is expected to be down low to mid single digits, which includes the forecasted year on year headwind of approximately 1.5% from disposable respirators. And finally, foreign currency translation is Expected to be approximately a minus 2% headwind to sales versus last year's Q2 and divestitures a year on year headwind of minus 1%.

Speaker 3

From an EPS perspective, we estimate that 2nd quarter adjusted earnings per share will be in the range of $1.50 to $1.75 including a pre tax restructuring charge of $175,000,000 to $250,000,000 or $0.25 to $0.35 per share. This range also incorporates the continued softness in organic sales and expected increase in investments, higher non op interest costs and an adjusted tax rate of 18.5 percent to 19.5%. To wrap up, 2023 is a pivotal year for 3 ms from an execution perspective. As I mentioned, We aggressively managed cost focused on serving customers while navigating end market weakness, particularly in consumer facing markets as we started the year. We expect organic sales volumes will improve as consumer retail and consumer electronics Market stabilize, China worked through its COVID related challenges as our year on year comps ease.

Speaker 3

The actions we announced today will enable us to exit 2023 stronger than we started and provide for significant margin and cash flow improvement into the future. I want to thank our customers and suppliers for their partnerships and the 3 ms employees for their hard work and dedication as they continue delivering for our customers. That concludes my remarks. We will now take your questions.

Operator

You will hear a 3 tone prompt to acknowledge your request. Please limit your participation to 1 question and one follow-up. One moment please while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup. You may proceed with your question.

Operator

Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Andy.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Andy.

Speaker 6

Mike or Manish, maybe we could start off by just talking a little bit more about the sales cadence during Q1 and here in April because I think Manish, you mentioned your Q2 EPS guide is modestly below Q1 even ex restructuring. What happened as Q1 evolved in here in April? Have you seen signs of consumer and Tumor and electronics destocking running its course. I know you classified industrial markets as mixed. Did you see any changes in industrial markets as the quarter evolved?

Speaker 6

And is it just that increased investment in tax rate holding down Q2 versus Q1?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Andy. So I'll just start again back to 1Q. As we said in the prepared remarks, end markets pretty much played out as anticipated. You had consumer facing businesses, both Our consumer business and our electronics business, the consumer business was down 7%.

Speaker 3

Electronics was down 35%. China continued to remain soft in Q1. We were down 20% in China. And also the Doctor and Russia comps So the end markets played out pretty much as anticipated. Coming into the quarter, we had given you a guide of 7.4 to 7.6.

Speaker 3

We came in at 7.7. So that's at the high end of our range with some of the benefit also coming from a better FX rate at minus 2.8 Versus the 3% to 4% that we had guided coming into the quarter. So when you look at that and you translate that into 2Q, I would still say the macroeconomic continues to remain fluid and uncertain. We are still seeing consumer Weakness both in consumer business and in any of our consumer facing businesses, especially consumer electronics. And so putting all that into the equation, also looking into industrial markets that remain mixed, health Care and Oral Care procedures pretty much remaining flat sequentially and then auto will be up a little bit sequentially and also up low double digits year on year.

Speaker 3

But then semiconductor is also down mid teens on a year over year basis. Our current guide is $7.7 to $7.9 Which then translates to an EPS of $1.50 to 1 $0.75 Included in that, Andy, in that 1 point $0.75 is a restructuring charge for the actions that we've announced today of $0.25 to $0.35 So if you exclude that for a moment, Then on an apples to apples basis, you're looking at $1.85 to $2 And the delta, if your question is about 1Q versus 2Q is the items you correctly said, which is some more investments as we think as we look at the second quarter and the second half and the future, Investments that we believe we want to take advantage of the markets as they get better in the second half continuing to but we'll still continue to remain prudent with our investments depending on how the market evolves. And then it's the tax rate and some of the non op that Just sequentially looks tighter. But with that said, just for the year again, we are maintaining guidance, which includes restructuring charge Of 700 to 900 for the program, we expect half of that will be incurred in 2023 And the benefits from that program are also $700,000,000 to $900,000,000 and we expect the benefits, half of those benefits Also to show up in 2023.

Speaker 3

Just for you to know and for others, we've announced a significant announcement today. Some of them are organizational changes and business combinations, division combinations. We'll be working through all of the reporting. Our reporting On the new division basis, we plan to do that from 1Q 2024 onwards. Hopefully, that answers your question, Andy.

Speaker 6

Yes, Manish, that's helpful. And then Mike, I wanted to ask you, dollars 700,000,000 to $900,000,000 cost takeout, obviously, a relatively large program. How do you avoid business disruption and or lower growth given all the changes you're going to make here? And then assuming The second half of the program does get executed mostly by 2024, maybe for Muneesh. How do we think about 3 ms's ability to generate that 30% to 40% incremental moving forward, if you do see sales rebound later in 'twenty three as you expect and in 'twenty four, for example, Should you see unusually high incrementals given the program?

Speaker 2

Yes, Andy, as I said 3 months ago, we've been looking at everything we do As we come through the pandemic, come through the supply chain disruptions, you even face into the outlook for the year and in our markets as we move ahead. So The actions that we've come to, they've been something that we've been very deliberate about thinking through. They're taking from learnings about what worked well and Areas that we know we can improve. So it starts with a pretty strong basis. We're confident that these are the right actions about positioning Us for growth and profitability as we go forward.

Speaker 2

And it'll help us navigate, as Manish just laid out, help us navigate some of the challenges uncertainty we have in the current market. So our focus is, as your question kind of indicated, our focus is on executing successfully And that's these are significant changes. We're confident we've got the right focus. We've made some leadership changes to really ensure that we have our leadership focused On successfully making these improvements and I think that this is the next step for us. We believe and we're confident these will be the steps that really help improve our performance in our businesses and our supply chain.

Speaker 2

And as the second part of your question Focused on it's about improving our costs and margins. We're reducing our costs and improving our margin performance. It gives us a position to Be successful in the future, leverage our innovation to create differentiated value with customers and deliver that to The bottom line performance that we expect both in terms of margins and cash flow. So it does position us for And being able to do that as we go forward, that incremental margin from our differentiated innovation. So yes, that's exactly the reason and confident we're

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Tusa with JPMorgan Securities. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Steve. Good morning, Steve.

Speaker 7

So just on this restructuring cost, can you maybe just give us a quarterly cadence on the Costs and then the savings. And I mean, getting half of the savings this year, that seems like a pretty Quick payback on half the spending. Like is there anything unique to this program that would have an accelerated payback like that, it seems like a one for 1 on a quarterly basis, which is pretty fast.

Speaker 3

Yes. So I'll just Start again, Steve, it's $700,000,000 to $900,000,000 We expect half of that to be incurred in 2023 and $175,000,000 to $250,000,000 to be incurred in the Q2. The benefits of that program is also half in 2023, Very little in 2Q, so the benefits actually show up in the second half. The reason the benefits Stronger than you would have normally seen is not all of these costs are just people related costs. We are taking a lot of other costs From the center of the company, we're reducing rooftops, etcetera, which allow us to exit some of these cost structures faster, and that's why you get a better payback.

Speaker 7

And so as far as the cadence of the charges is there, is it should we assume that they are spread throughout 3Q and 4Q and Additionally, with the savings, 3Q and 4Q?

Speaker 3

Right now, I would just focus on 2Q and the total year, and we'll update you, Steve, as we get through the announcements today and work through all the people related costs and work through the rules and regulations in various countries, I would just focus on total year and then 2Q.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then what was as far as like the go to markets concerned and how you're changing things. What was the catalyst for this? What did you see in the business that you thought You needed to improve on, from a go to market perspective with all these changes that you were talking about. It seems like some pretty significant You know, initiatives from that perspective and a change in the way you guys have done business historically.

Speaker 7

What was the catalyst for that? What

Speaker 2

Yes, I think the catalyst is really the learning and experience that we've gone through over the last few years. We put in place a business led model really around our go to market models. We also put in place a global supply chain model that was end to end, managed In one consistent model across the world and we've been operating that through the pandemic, through the supply chain disruptions. Our businesses are learning the go to market model, Models that we have in place, we're learning how to optimize those. And I would say we've gotten to a point when we look at where our markets are going in the future, where we want to invest, We want to operate best to serve our customers.

Speaker 2

It's really a learning, more of a learning over that experience than a catalyst. There's a catalyst, it's to position ourselves as we take action now for the future, make sure that we are stepping into the changes that will Both drive the performance in the near term and also position us for the future. So the learning was really and I think the Clear view of what we can do to improve in the go to market models and also in our supply chain that is really, like I said, giving us That's strong focus on the actions that we're taking and announcing today.

Speaker 3

Can I just add one more, Steve? As I've always said this before, digital is a multiplier for 3 ms. And some of the digital capabilities that we have built over the last few years allows us to serve customers better. For example, Mike mentioned one of the areas where we are relooking at how we go to market in certain countries, where in the past we have had a full roof stop and a full cost structure And now we're going to work through our partnerships of 3rd party distributors, leverage our digital capabilities, leverage our export capabilities and that also allows us

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning, Mike and Monish and Bruce.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Scott.

Speaker 8

We've got a couple of different I mean, this restructuring is large as the fellows have said, but you're also going to be Getting out of the PFAS manufacturing business, is that included in this restructuring or there'll be separate actions Kind of sequentially on top of that as you exit each of these things.

Speaker 2

Yes, Scott. The PFAS exit, I would say this, we Are executing what we announced at the end of last year and working to discontinue the use of PFAS in our products and working to exit the manufacturing. It's not a specific focus in the restructuring actions. That's a we've got a dedicated team following through on that Set of actions and we continue to make good progress. We're working closely with customers and I would say making progress on Our innovation to discontinue the use of PFAS in our products across the company.

Speaker 2

So it's a separate focus, separate team and A separate strategy for us.

Speaker 3

Just to remind us, Scott, from a numbers perspective, when we announced the exit of The intent to exit our PFAS manufacturing and reduce our use of PFAS in our products, we had announced a 4th quarter charge. We said the total program will cost us $1,300,000,000 to $2,300,000,000 In the Q4 of last year, we took a charge of $800,000,000 which was largely non cash. We continue to make progress along that. Our current excluded numbers include what that the extra charge in the quarter. For a total program basis, we still expect to incur right now $1,300,000,000 to $2,300,000,000

Speaker 8

Okay. And Mike, I wanted to just ask you on R and D productivity. I mean, I think when you think about the investments that you guys have made over the last 50 years, forever. There's been time periods where growth has been great and a lot of support of the margins. And then there's been Perhaps the last decade where I'd characterize growth is pretty minimal and maybe not as much support of the margin structure as you had in the past.

Speaker 8

But Is part of the restructuring and the changes you're making to help drive more accountability and productivity in R and D? Is it is there a I mean, I guess, a more polite way to ask the question is, is there a is there any Cultural or structural problems in R and D that you can address and perhaps improve that productivity going forward?

Speaker 2

Yes, Scott. I think it's an important part of the actions we're announcing today, I would say, is to position us to Be successful in delivering on the differentiated value that is 3 ms Innovation. And we are always innovating around how we do that. I talked about in the announcements today that we are prioritizing some large high growth market segments where we have strong commercial presence and we can leverage Strong innovation. So I think if there's a kind of a consistent message over the last year or so from me is that we are prioritizing More and more where we focus that R and D investment is still the first priority in our capital allocation, invest in R and D, invest in CapEx to drive that growth.

Speaker 2

We see the opportunities in those high growth market spaces. We also called out and we're as part of our actions that we're announcing today, we're putting in place A central group to really focus some of the capabilities that we have in broad material science going after some emerging market Like climate tech and industrial automation, sustainable packaging, even next generation electronics has Got over the horizon some really exciting spaces. So it's about continuing to evolve that prioritization And the businesses, they've got, I would say, very clear focus on where their priority markets are, where their customer Opportunities are that they can really create the most differentiation. So that's the I would say a continuous innovation and evolving nature of How we think about investing R and D, how we think about driving growth and our goal remains the same to leverage our innovation, Grow at or above the macro of the economies that we're part of and really focusing on those high growth market segments so that we can do that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Thank you. I wanted to ask on China. I think you guys Called out China down 20% in the quarter. Was that worse than you guys anticipated? And it sounds like there's an expectation of China stabilization or improvement as the year goes on, is there anything you're seeing here through April, maybe that gives you confidence that things there are getting better?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So Chris, we did call out down 20%. It's pretty much played out exactly where we expected it to be when we gave you the Q1 guide. And in the Q2, currently we are expecting China to be down low single digits to mid single digits, but sequentially Few days into April, it's pretty much playing out where we saw. And just talking to customers, talking to and looking at all the external factors, There is an expectation that China GDP grows and increases in the second half sequentially and year on year.

Speaker 3

And our full year guidance, as I've talked about, assumes overall recovery in all economies in the second half, Including China and as supply chains continue to heal, we should start also seeing the productivity of cost reductions in our cost of goods To start showing up in the second half. And so sitting right now, that's how we see China. China was impacted heavily by consumer electronics down In the Q1, and that's also reflected in our results.

Speaker 9

Thank you for that. And then

Speaker 4

For my follow-up, I want

Speaker 9

to ask on the destocking that you're seeing at the customer level. I think you guys called out retail As destocking bought year to date and we've seen the same in the data. Can you maybe just talk about where you think the supply chain is in that destock cycle?

Speaker 2

Yes. Chris, we talked a bit about the consumer retail destocking as we came into the year and we saw that play out in Q1 there. I would say in the U. S. In particular, retail has been destocking in the discretionary categories and we saw that and that was part of our And pretty much played out as expected.

Speaker 2

We see that getting back to closer to your More consistent weeks of stock, but there's still probably some destocking to continue there, not maybe as aggressively as we saw in Q1, but We still see that playing out as we move ahead. We're also seeing destocking, I would say, across some of the industrial markets. We talked about that Back on our Q4 earnings call as well that it was maybe out of cautious view of the outlook and I would say that has played out as expected. We saw destocking in China around the slowdown in electronics, also in automotive. China saw a slowdown in automotive builds in Q1 In Asia, more broadly, destocking around electronics.

Speaker 2

I think the automotive levels more broadly, given the growth, are Relatively imbalanced, maybe even low in some areas. Healthcare is pretty well aligned with the market and the recovery that we're seeing in procedures. I think the consumer is also seeing the dynamic of seasonal builds. There are some seasonal builds going on in the channel as well. So Some destocking was played out as expected in the Q1.

Speaker 2

I would say some of it carrying into the Q2 as we go forward. And then when you see the downturn in demand in electronics, there's naturally some destocking in the channels related to electronics as well.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Our next Question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning, guys. Good

Speaker 2

morning, Josh.

Speaker 10

I just want to follow-up

Speaker 5

on the restructuring program. Mike mentioned, I think you guys have had a few programs now over the last Several years, I know that they're approaching different aspects of the cost elements and different regions, etcetera. But trying to roll up Where do you see the margin entitlement for the business as we get through these programs over the next several years? Is there anything that you sort of have penciled out there that we Keep in mind, especially with a few of these programs overlapping and different mix changes, etcetera, going on within the business.

Speaker 3

Yes, Josh. So I would say a couple of things. One is, of course, you have to have these programs work through. As we said, it's 700 to 900. A large piece of those charges will be completed by 2024.

Speaker 3

So you'd start seeing the benefit without these charges in 2025 and beyond. That time, of course, you had to think through what the revenue is. But if you just use 2023 as a guide, as a basis, the margin expansion excluding these charges or When these charges are done is a 200 to 300 basis points of margin expansion that you should see on an annualized steady state basis. What I would tell you is that allows us to definitely get the better leverage that we have all been talking about. But the second other factor that comes into play is as supply chain start to heal, you should start seeing productivity and Cost out starting to show up, which again is in our second half guide for the year, but that should continue into the future years.

Speaker 3

And then you add on data, data analytics and the digital capabilities that we have that will allow us to do better network and logistics Optimization, also dual sourcing programs kicking in, etcetera. So we should continue to see margin rates expand into the long term Once these programs are done. So hopefully I answered your question, Josh.

Speaker 5

Yes, that's helpful. And I'll leave it there in the interest of time.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 1

Hey, Joe. Good morning, Joe.

Speaker 10

So I know we've had a bunch of questions on the Structuring, I want to delve in a little bit deeper there because there's lots of cost levers that you described. I'm just curious, is there a way to bucket Perhaps like some of these, how big like whether it's reducing the layers or supply chain is in that $700,000,000 to $900,000,000 cost out? And then maybe specifically on the simplification piece. Again, any kind of quantification like how many P and Ls are you Streamlining, any other color around that would be helpful.

Speaker 3

So Joe, the 700,000,000 to 900,000,000 you just break it out into broad buckets, 40% of it is around the supply chain simplification that Mike talked about. The remaining 60%, you can split between costs at the center of the company and costs at the BGs. From a P and L perspective, couple of items that Mike talked about again on the go to market. There'll be a couple of divisions in TBG that will be combined. And then from a consumer perspective, we will serve our customers more from an area And then realign them around portfolios.

Speaker 3

And the other piece on a go to market cost saving is As we look at some of the countries, the way we serve using our digital capabilities, we will look at using our partnerships that we have with our 3rd party And use a digitalexport model to serve those customers in those countries, which will also allow us to take out rooftops And fully loaded P and Ls in those countries that will also allow us to save cost.

Speaker 10

Got it. That's super helpful. And maybe my follow on question. I didn't hear it earlier, but how much pricing came through this quarter? What's the expectation going forward on price cost?

Speaker 3

Yes. So depending on the business group, Joe, we had Anywhere between low to mid single digits, the average is low single digits. The guide for the year is low single digits. And at the same time, As we have said before, if we continue to see inflation, we will readjust as needed. The teams have done a Good job, I would say, of looking at it product by product, market by market and making the right necessary Price moves as required when they see inflation.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Julien.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Maybe leave aside the firm wide restructuring for a second. And just wanted to focus on the Healthcare Business, is that meant to spin out in a matter of months? The margin is down pretty heavily Year on year again, down sequentially as well and not a lot of organic growth. So just trying to sort of understand How comfortable you feel with that Healthcare business kind of ahead of the spin?

Speaker 11

Are we seeing a big front loading of investments, so it has kind of less to do post spin? Just trying to understand kind of the approach there for this year and why those margins seem to be under such pressure?

Speaker 2

Yes, Julien, and I'll come to kind of the organic growth and margin. I would say we We continue to see the healthcare procedures as an important driver of our healthcare performance in there. We see some improvements. We Monesh highlighted in his prepared remarks some of the headwinds and challenges that are still the labor shortages and some of the And healthcare recovering to pre pandemic levels. So that's important factor in driving our growth.

Speaker 2

If you look at our business, They also had some headwinds from the Russia exit in Doctor and so close to 2% organic growth and we Expect as procedures do recover that we'll see improvements in our organic growth. On the margin side, Manish called out some of the headwinds. We have still seeing some supply chain headwinds, still seeing some carryover from material raw material and logistic inflation, Energy cost inflation, and we are making some investments, investing in it is a prioritized area of growth for us and we're making And really staying focused on those investments. So it's a it is part of the performance in the quarter, but again confident that as procedures improve, we'll We'll see growth and growth gives us the best leverage to the margin. We'll see those margins improve as we see some of the supply chain healing And some of the actions that we're taking help impact that as well.

Speaker 3

Just one more to add is biopharma. As We mentioned in our prepared remarks, biopharma this quarter was also impacted due to the normalization of COVID related demand. And As Mike mentioned, the healthcare business is for us is a great business. We will see volumes grow as elective procedures grow, oral care Seizures go and biopharma demand comes back once we get the normalization out of the way from an inventory And with all that put together, the margin rates will also go up as volumes come through. But this is again a segment Mike has Called out multiple times an area where we see great opportunity, which means we will continue to invest in that segment To make sure we take advantage of long term growth.

Speaker 11

Thank you. And then just my follow-up on Electronics Specifically, I think you mentioned Manish that was down sort of 35% in Q1 year on year. It looks like the second quarter is Maybe in the teens, based on Slide 13 in Electronics, how are you thinking about that sort of Rate of improvement, what's baked into the back half electronics in your guidance? Do you think we should see year on year growth by the Q4 for Electronics? Any sort of color there around How you're looking at that business through the balance of the year?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's you got it right. Right now, our 2nd quarter is also going to get impacted continuing inventory challenges and destocking at consumer electronics whether it's tablets, notebooks, TVs. Our view is that as China stabilizes, as we start seeing our comps ease Compared to last year, Q4 should be on a much more normal run rate, which means on a year over year basis, it will show positive growth.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

Speaker 4

Yes. Great. Thanks. So just wanted to touch on the appointment of Mike Vale as Group President. Just 1st of all, congratulations to Mike.

Speaker 4

But how does this change your role, Mike Roman, in terms of your focus areas? I mean, Mike's obviously it Seems like he's getting direct responsibility for the 3 segments. How does it change your focus areas going forward?

Speaker 2

Nigel, I think it's a reflection on really what are The strategies and actions that we're driving, the priorities that we're focused on right now and the importance of having leadership that brings There's necessary focus as we go forward. And so it's even looking back to 2022, some of the pivotal actions that we announced as we came through the year, There are the healthcare spend, our actions in terms of our supply chain changes, focusing our leadership now with the actions we're announcing today To go further and really make the changes in our the next set of changes in our supply chain are moving forward with our new go to market models. Mike's role is really focused around that. When I talk to Mike about stepping into this leadership role, it's about really ensuring success as we drive these actions And changes forward position us for the future, help the businesses, help the businesses working with the supply chain be successful and integrating these changes And Building for the Future helped us to focus on the high growth market segment. So it's really about putting up taking our priorities and putting a strong leadership support In place to drive that.

Speaker 2

These are important and really significant actions that we're putting in place and important that we have. We also Our supporting our leadership with a dedicated project management office, these are significant changes. So it's really A strong statement about what's most important both on the restructuring but also on our strategies in terms of growth and executing for our customers.

Speaker 4

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks, Mike. And then one from Nish, just following up on Joe's question on pricing. It seems like given the 1.3 percentage points hit to margins from raw materials, it seems like price cost But positive this quarter, just wondering if there has been any change in the way you're viewing the supply chain structural material kind of dynamics for this year?

Speaker 3

Yes, no change. I would say it's the same. So price cost was positive and the teams continue to manage both. As we Think about the second half, that's where supply chains our belief is supply chains start healing, which means we should be able to see better cost Product cost from our factories as well as the cost from sourcing that should continue to help us build on margins which goes back to Where what we have talked about at earnings, talked about it at last quarter earnings currently too, that all of this is baked into our guide where we see supply chain Starting to heal in the second half and even market starting to heal in the second half because as you know we've talked about volume gives us the best leverage. So those are the 2 things we're counting on in the

Operator

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. You may proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Deane.

Speaker 10

Hey, can we get an update on the healthcare analyst meeting? And What's the expectation on the separation of R and D? There's so much in the way of shared technologies. What's the plan there And also for stranded costs.

Speaker 2

Yes. Dean, maybe I'll make a comment about the R and D. So this is something that we've managed with other Separations and divestitures and nothing of the healthcare spin scale, but it's something that we're able to manage. We've part of the focus of the separation team is on this area and it's important to be able to set up both Healthcare and 3 ms going forward with the strong foundation for innovation that they both need. And you know the fields of use are Actually quite distinct between healthcare and what will be 3 ms Company going forward.

Speaker 2

So that's a really a big part of it. And then We work through the details, make sure that we are positioning both companies to have the not only the access to the technology, but the intellectual property that is at the foundation of What makes our innovation really that differentiated. So making good progress on that and feel like that's an area that we Have a good road map ahead for us to follow.

Speaker 3

Just on your second question on timing, as you know, Dean, last Quarter 2, Mike had said, the teams are continuing to make good progress. This quarter 2, they're making good progress. We were going we were working towards Q4 'twenty three, early 2024 timeline, but just a reminder, our spin timing ultimately is subject to The IRS rulings because we want this to be a tax free transaction, government approvals, making sure we get final board approval and also taking into account Other conditions like equity and debt markets, other external conditions that could impact on other developments that could impact 3 ms or any of its business. So put all that together, I would just say that teams are focused, dedicated teams continuing to make progress, Working through all the government regulations that we have to work through to get ready.

Speaker 10

That's helpful. And just If you can comment on the plan for stranded costs and are there other spin offs being contemplated by the Board?

Speaker 3

So just on stranded cost, when we announced this transaction mid last year, one of the items we had talked about was That benchmarks were anywhere between 1% to 1.5% of revenue stranded cost and we had talked about saying We believe we can do much better than that. Based on all the actions that we are taking today, currently, our view on Stranded costs ultimately depends on the revenue of parent co2 is between 50 to 75 basis points, so much lower than benchmark. But we'll keep working it. We'll keep working it from now till the end of the till the spin off and we'll keep working it post that too to reduce that.

Speaker 2

And Dean, I would say we're focused on successfully moving forward and making successfully making progress with the spin of healthcare. And we are, of course, Focused on the actions that we announced today. So we don't plan on any other major portfolio actions in the near term.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Ian.

Operator

And our final question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche In the interest of time, I'm just going to Can you just comment on how organic growth kind of trended throughout the quarter, if there were any discernible differences between Jan, Feb, March and then into April. Thank you.

Speaker 3

So Nicole, I would say overall the quarter pretty much played out as we thought. Jan, Feb, March, we expected acceleration, which we saw. April is also playing out pretty much Where we saw so there's I would say there was nothing in the intra quarter trends in Q1 that stood out from where we had China remains soft, consumer facing businesses remain soft, industrial end markets Ex electronics remain strong. And then healthcare elective procedures pretty much remain the same and You normally in that industry see a 4Q to a 1Q slowdown just as procedures slow down and we saw that too. So nothing I would say is major to call out intra quarter in 1Q.

Speaker 3

Thanks,

Speaker 2

Manish.

Operator

That concludes the question and answer portion of our conference call. I will now turn the call back over to Mike Roman for some closing comments.

Speaker 2

To wrap up, we are taking significant actions to create a streamlined and stronger 3 ms. We will stay focused on creating greater value for customers and shareholders, Improving our performance and using 3 ms Science to make a difference in the world. Thank you for joining us.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
3M Q1 2023
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