W.P. Carey Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 28, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Strong external growth: Year-to-date investments totaled $743 million at a 7.2% average cap rate, including the $468 million Apotex triple-net sale-leaseback with a 20-year lease and 3% annual escalations.
  • Sector-leading rent growth: Contractual same-store rent growth reached 4.3% year-over-year in Q1, and full-year growth is expected to average around 4% in 2023 and 3% in 2024.
  • Robust capital position: Debt to gross assets was 40.3% and net debt to EBITDA 5.8×, with approximately $1.7 billion of liquidity, including €500 million in new term loans and undrawn equity forwards.
  • Resilient portfolio: Occupancy stands above 99%, the watch list is low at ~2% of ABR, and the dividend yield remains around 6%, supported by long-term, investment-grade leases.
  • Guidance maintained: Full-year AFFO per share guidance of $5.30–$5.40 implies nearly 3% growth, backed by a pipeline targeting $1.75–$2.25 billion of investments and $300–$400 million of dispositions.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
W.P. Carey Q1 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and welcome to W. P. Carey's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jessie, and I will be your operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

Operator

Please note that today's event is being recorded. After today's prepared remarks, We will be taking questions via the phone line. Instructions on how to do so will be given at the appropriate time. I will now turn today's I'll turn the call over to Peter Sands, Head of Investor Relations. Mr.

Operator

Sands, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Thank you Thank you for joining us this morning for our 2023 First Quarter Earnings Call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone Some of the statements made on this call are not historic facts and may be deemed forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially W. P.

Speaker 1

Carey's expectations are provided in our SEC filings. An online replay of this conference call will be made available in the Investor Relations section of our website at wpcarey.com, where it will be archived for approximately 1 year and where you can also find And with that, I'll hand the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Jason Fox.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Peter, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to say we've made a strong start to the year through our investment activity. We've also continued to generate the highest contractual rent growth in the net lease sector. We expect to average around 4% for 2023, Even with inflation coming off its peak, it will remain elevated in 2024. This morning, I'll briefly review our recent investment in capital raising activities.

Speaker 2

Antonio Sanzone, our CFO, will cover the details of our results, guidance and balance sheet positioning. John Park, our President Brooks Gordon, our Head of Asset Management are also on the call to take questions. Starting with external growth. Investment volume year to date totaled $743,000,000 comprising $178,000,000 closed during the Q1 $566,000,000 so far in the Q2. Our investments year to date were completed at a weighted average cap rate of 7.2% And a weighted average lease term of 21 years.

Speaker 2

In line with our core focus, virtually all were industrial sale leasebacks, Including 3 industrial portfolios each over $50,000,000 in addition of course to the Apotex transaction As the single largest driver at $468,000,000 Apotex was a sizable sale leaseback, so I'll briefly recap that transaction, Which is an excellent example of our ability to partner with private equity sponsors, utilizing sale leasebacks as part of the capital stack in corporate acquisitions. It also demonstrates our ability to source and execute large deals as well as the competitive advantage we have by being able to fund transactions, Especially large ones entirely with our own balance sheet. In fact, we believe very few of the net lease buyers we compete against could close a transaction of this size Even fewer without using asset level debt, something that is generally uneconomical or unavailable in the current environment. Pennant is a global pharmaceutical company and the largest generic drug manufacturer in Canada. The portfolio comprises 11 properties Over 4 pharmaceutical R and D and advanced manufacturing campuses, primarily located in attractive infill locations in Toronto, Our vacancy rates for industrial real estate are in the low single digits.

Speaker 2

And the facilities are mission critical to the tenants business, representing the vast majority of its global operations. This was an accretive transaction in line with others we've executed this year It's structured as a triple net master lease with rent payable in U. S. Dollars and 3% fixed rent escalations over a 20 year term. The transaction closed concurrently with the private equity buyout of Apotex and it was funded on March 31st, but closed on April 3rd.

Speaker 2

Given the timing, Apotex does not therefore appear in our Q1 supplemental portfolio metrics. However, on a pro form a basis, It ranks as our 3rd largest tenant, representing just over 2% of ABR. And along with another industrial portfolio investment we've completed so far in the second quarter, Increases our overall exposure to warehouse and industrial to approximately 53% of ABR. Turning to the investment environment. In the U.

Speaker 2

S, the backdrop largely remains the same as it was on our last earnings call in February, With cap rates on our investments year to date averaging about 40 basis points higher compared to the investments we closed during the Q4. Within the opportunity set we target, we've continued to see the best opportunities in industrial where cap rates have increased the most. In Europe, we've seen a pickup in longer range opportunities since the Q4, driven by higher interest rates. In many respects, the current transaction backdrop in Europe is similar to that in the U. S.

Speaker 2

At the start of the Q4 of last year, And we expect it to follow a similar trajectory, providing a growing number of interesting opportunities as the year progresses, driven by the increasing competitiveness of sale leasebacks The large majority of the investment opportunities we're evaluating in both regions continue to span a range of cap rates In the mid to high 6s and up into the 7s. Cap rates in this range continue to provide a comfortable spread to our cost of capital And we're confident in our ability to execute given the strength of our balance sheet. However, if capital markets remain unsettled or borrowing costs move higher, We would expect to see additional upward pressure on cap rates in the second half of the year. While corporate M and A has slowed, We are seeing an increase in the proportion of transactions where sellers are considering sale leasebacks, including corporate refinancings. The overall environment for sale leasebacks remains favorable with high yield debt and leverage loans continuing to be expensive, driving more and more companies and private equity sponsors And as the market leader in this type of transaction, we expect to remain the major beneficiary of that trend.

Speaker 2

We also continue to have a competitive advantage with sellers concerned about execution risk, given the strength of our balance sheet And ability to close deals without relying on asset level debt, which is particularly relevant for the tenants just below investment grade that we target. Overall, the investment environment remains constructive and we're on track to close meaningfully higher investment volume relative to last year. We have an active pipeline, including several $100,000,000 of investments at various stages with a handful of early stage opportunities in Europe. Our internal growth also remains very strong given the high proportion of leases with rent escalations tied to inflation. Even though there is evidence that inflation is beginning to cool, inherent lag on which it flows through to rents keep our contractual same store rent growth to around 2% by the end of next year.

Speaker 2

So to the extent inflation remains above 2%, our same store rent growth will also remain elevated. Moving to capital raising, we continue to utilize our access to a variety of capital sources. Tony will cover the details, but at a high level, 1st quarter activity was driven by equity capital raising, ending the quarter with significant forward equity available to settle, issued at prices well above current levels. Earlier this week, we completed a €500,000,000 3 year term loan with the potential to go up to €750,000,000 through its accordion feature. We therefore continue to have capital to put to work and remain well positioned to fund the investment volume embedded in our guidance.

Speaker 2

Lastly, with the odds of a recession in the second half of this year increasing, I want to reiterate that we have a well diversified portfolio of critical real estate Leased to large companies on long term leases. Our portfolio has proven resiliency with the stability of our cash flows demonstrated over numerous economic cycles And throughout the COVID stress test, occupancy remains very high as do rent collections. And we have a benign watch list with no particular themes in terms of tenant industry In addition to downside protection, we also pay a well covered growing dividend currently yielding around 6%. In closing, we're pleased with the progress we're making in 2023. It sets us apart from most other net lease REITs in the current environment, Particularly the strength of our investment volume, supported by a well positioned balance sheet and access to various forms of capital, as well as the sector leading rent growth we're achieving.

Speaker 2

And with that, I'll pass the call over to Toni.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. For the 2023 Q1, We generated total AFFO of $1.31 per diluted share, up 1.6% from the prior quarter and flat The large majority closed subsequent to quarter end, adding about $40,000,000 of ABR early in the second quarter. Our first quarter results continued to benefit from the strength of the rent escalations built into our portfolio as we've reported record contractual same store rent growth A 4.3% year over year, which is 90 basis points higher than it was for the 4th quarter and 160 basis points above the year ago quarter. During the Q1, approximately 45% of CPI linked ABR went through rent increases At rates that were highest the highest we've seen to date, averaging 7.2% for leases with uncapped CPI rent escalations. This was largely driven by the timing lag on which our inflation linked leases escalate.

Speaker 3

As a result of this lag, we expect our contractual same store rent growth To average about 4% for 2023 and to remain elevated above historical levels at around 3% in 2024, Even with inflation beginning to moderate, comprehensive same store rent growth for the Q1, which is based on the pro rata net Lease rent included in our AFFO was 3.3% year over year and we ended the quarter with 99.2% occupancy in our portfolio, up from 98.8 percent at the

Operator

end of the

Speaker 3

year. Disposition activity during the Q1 Comprised 5 properties for gross proceeds of $43,000,000 Additionally, for 2 of our dispositions, We negotiated and received early lease termination payments totaling $11,400,000 which were contingent on the sales of those properties and were recognized during the Q1 in other lease related income. For the 2023 full year, We continue to expect other lease related income to remain in line with 2022. As anticipated, we received notice during the Q1 from U Haul of its intention to exercise the purchase option on our portfolio of 78 net lease self storage facilities. This notice triggered certain accounting reclassifications, both of the asset on our balance sheet and the rent on our income statement, And resulted in the recognition of a $176,000,000 gain on sale during the Q1.

Speaker 3

However, these have no impact on our AFFO, ABR or Portfolio Metrics. Currently, we estimate that we will receive approximately $470,000,000 in disposition proceeds, which is calculated based on CPI and expected to occur around the end of the 2024 Q1, resulting in a disposition cap rate Around 8.2%. Notably, we do not have any other significant purchase options in our portfolio. Non operating income for the Q1 primarily comprised realized gains from foreign currency hedges totaling $4,100,000 Our guidance continues to assume currency rates remain at or around 1st quarter levels, resulting in quarterly gains from currency hedges in line with those generated during the Q1. If the euro continues to strengthen, it will positively impact our net euro cash flows, partly offset by lower hedging gains.

Speaker 3

Operating properties, in aggregate, generated NOI totaling $21,000,000 during the Q1, primarily from our self storage operating portfolio and 2 months of operating NOI from the 12 Marriott Hotels that converted from net lease to operating properties in January of this year. The Marriott operating assets remain non core. Nine properties are targeted for sale, And we continue to pursue attractive redevelopment opportunities for the other 3. Until these hotels are sold or redeveloped, Marriott will continue to operate and manage them under long term franchise agreements. We will provide updates as we make progress, For purposes of our guidance, we continue to assume the vast majority will remain on our balance sheet until late in the year.

Speaker 3

And as a result, we continue to expect NOI from all operating properties to total approximately $100,000,000 for 2023. Turning to expenses. Interest expense totaled $67,000,000 for the Q1, Flat with the prior quarter and up $21,000,000 from the same period in the prior year. Our weighted average interest rate was 3.1% for the quarter, which was in line with the 4th quarter, but up from 2.5% for the year ago quarter, given higher base rates. Non reimbursed property expenses were $12,800,000 for the Q1, declining 8% from the 4th quarter and 7% from the year ago quarter.

Speaker 3

As I mentioned earlier, portfolio occupancy increased versus last quarter, which factors into our expectation that non reimbursed property expenses will continue to decline over the course of 2023. G and A expense was $26,400,000 for the Q1, reflecting higher compensation costs And an increase in professional fees as a result of the CPA18 merger. As a reminder, G and A expense typically trends higher in the first $97,000,000 $100,000,000 Tax expense totaled $11,000,000 for the Q1 on an AFFO basis, up from both the Q4 and the same period last year, primarily as a result of the impact of CPI linked increases on foreign rents. The year over year increase also reflects the addition of assets acquired in the CPA18 merger. Turning briefly to our guidance.

Speaker 3

We're maintaining our full year AFFO guidance range of $5.30 to $5.40 per share, which at the midpoint implies almost 3% year over year growth on real estate AFFO per share. Our guidance continues to assume investment volume Between $1,750,000,000 $2,250,000,000 for the year and disposition volume of $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 Moving now to our capital markets activity and balance sheet positioning. We continue to utilize our access to a variety of capital sources. First quarter activity was driven by equity capital raising, followed more recently by the term loan we announced earlier this week. For Equity, we settled 3,100,000 shares under outstanding equity forwards at the end of the Q1, raising $250,000,000 Given the timing, the shares will be fully reflected in our 2nd quarter diluted share count.

Speaker 3

During the first We also sold additional equity forwards through our ATM program for anticipated net proceeds of $104,000,000 In conjunction with prior unsettled equity forwards, we therefore ended the quarter with about $385,000,000 of forward equity available to settle. For our key leverage and liquidity metrics, debt to gross assets ended the Q1 at 40.3%. Net debt to EBITDA was 5.8 times as we funded approximately $470,000,000 for our investment in Apotex on the last day of the quarter With the EBITDA from that investment commencing at the start of the Q2, I want to highlight that our leverage metrics do not reflect the pro form a impact settling undrawn equity forwards, which would bring our net debt to EBITDA to the low end of our target range. We currently expect to remain well within our target leverage ranges of low to mid-40s on debt to gross assets and mid to high 5 times on net debt to EBITDA. We maintained a strong liquidity position, totaling approximately $1,700,000,000 including undrawn equity forwards, Despite being $670,000,000 drawn on our $1,800,000,000 revolving credit facility at quarter end, again due primarily to the funding of the Apotex As Jason noted, earlier this week, we completed a €500,000,000 3 year unsecured term loan and executed an interest rate swap fixing the rate at 4.3% through the end of 2024.

Speaker 3

The term loan was fully drawn at closing And the proceeds were primarily used to pay down our revolving credit facility. The combination of availability on our credit facility, Unsettled equity forwards raised at over $83 per share and expected disposition proceeds mean we are well positioned to fund the remaining investment Volume embedded in our 2023 guidance on a leverage neutral basis without the need to return to the capital markets this year, enabling us to remain opportunistic when we raise capital. Lastly, our near term debt maturities remain manageable. We have just over $300,000,000 of mortgages due in 2023, a portion of which will be retired as part of our disposition plans And no bonds maturing until April 2024. In closing, we're focused on building on our strong start to the year And with that, I'll hand the call back to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will take questions. Our first question is coming from the line of Spenser Allaway with Green Please proceed with your question. Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Can you provide some additional color on

Speaker 4

the transaction market in both the U. S. And Europe? What industries are you seeing being marketed most heavily? And then can you provide a rough split of the deals sourced between the U.

Speaker 4

S. And Europe?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. I mean the backdrop I would say remains very similar to where it was at the beginning of the year. I think in the U. S. We Seeing cap rates continue to adjust and maybe reach more of an equilibrium than we've seen in Europe.

Speaker 2

I think Europe is a little bit Earlier stage, I'd kind of characterize it similar to how the U. S. Was at the beginning of Q4 when sellers started to adjust more to the current Interest rate environment. So, and that's reflected in our deal flow. I think that For the U.

Speaker 2

S, that's where more of the deals are. We've seen cap rates come up to levels that really work for us right now. I think in Europe, Right now, I think the pipeline is probably about 25% Europe, so we're seeing some activity, but it's still going to be more weighted towards the U. S. Right now.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then you guys divested several office assets in the quarter. So this is a property type that And unfavorable, I would say for some time, but just curious what drove the decision to sell the properties in this quarter? And then if you could provide a little color on the You office leases that you guys extended in the quarter as well, that would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Yes. Brooks, do you want to give any color on the office Dispositions?

Speaker 5

Sure. Yes, I think in context, as we've noted in prior calls, we remain underweight office And that will be overweighting our disposition. These particular deals were deal specific, and as Tony noted, were tied to Pretty sizable lease termination payments as well. So that really should be included in the overall value there. In terms of Sorry, what's the second part of your question?

Speaker 4

I'm sorry, I was just asking about the decision just I divest the office assets in the Q1, just given it's been an unfavorable asset for some time.

Speaker 5

Got it. So, yes, in this particular quarter, it's really deal specific. The execution was quite strong. I'll note the largest of those was A property in Chicago where we had executed a much larger termination payment in a prior quarter, which you may recall about $41,000,000 So Kind of the total economics from the sales plus those terminations is a pretty sizable amount. So good execution on these particular properties, But really deal specific in terms of timing.

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Thank you guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Brad Heffern with RBC. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning everyone. You talked about the over 3% figure for contractual rent growth in 2024. How much of that is baked at this point and how much of it is dependent on what the trajectory of inflation is between now and then?

Speaker 2

Yes, Toni, do you have some details around that?

Speaker 3

Yes, I can cover that. Good morning. I think the large majority is we talked about the same store for this year Certainly fully baked given kind of where the rent escalations are and the timing in our leases. I'd say the 3% that we're referencing into next year Largely assumes that the CPI starts to stabilize more towards the end of 2024. So I think it certainly could move from there, but I think that's all factored into roughly the 3% that we're expecting to see next year.

Speaker 6

Okay, got it. And then on the Apotex deal, I think you said it had 3% annual escalations. That obviously This is higher than what you would typically see for fixed escalators. So I'm curious how much of that is the environment that we're in and how much of it is just the specific situation?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, I think a lot of it has to do with the environment. We are still focused on CPI base increases in our leases, but of course, it's more of a Conversation now may be a little bit more difficult to get. I think it's still customary in Europe, but maybe in U. S.

Speaker 2

And Canada, it's something that we need to negotiate with a little And we're not getting inflation based increases, it is flowing through to our fixed increase. And I think that, Apotex is an example of that As an alternative to CPI, that was part of the negotiation. I think what also factors in here is the specific markets That we're investing in. These are infill Toronto industrial properties, very strong markets, low single digit vacancies. And when we structure our deals, we do want our lease bumps to reflect what we expect market rents to do.

Speaker 2

And these are Really strong markets that we think certainly could grow at 3% a year over a long period of time.

Speaker 6

Okay, got it. And then obviously the U Haul option will be diluted next year, but I think in the past you've talked about the lineage shares I guess can you walk through, how you see that math and the potential for that to be an offset in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes, look, the U Haul transaction, we've been kind of talking about that for a number of quarters, maybe even a number of years at this point in time where It's been expected. I think the purchase option price has gone up meaningfully with inflation and I think the reinvestment cap rate Has also gone up given with the market. So I think the spread or the dilution on selling that asset has come down meaningfully And it won't be all that material. You mentioned Lineage. I think that's an offset that we do at times like the couple with you all.

Speaker 2

It's a similar Size, asset lineage, I think our mark right now is around $400,000,000 We don't have good visibility into the timing on that. I think that there's probably a liquidity event sometime in the next couple of years, But we don't have visibility into it. But when it does offer us an exit, we would be selling that $400,000,000 asset that's Currently not paying any dividend at all, and then using that capital to accretively reinvest. You can kind of think about it if we're Reinvesting at 7 caps going from a 0 to 7 on $400,000,000 is pretty significant and wildly offsets Any dilution we would see of selling the U Haul portfolio in kind of the low 8s and again reinvesting in around the 7 cap. So timing may not line up perfectly, But I think that there's been less focus on lineage and it's a pretty valuable asset that we're holding.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Great, thanks. Jason, I guess first one for you. Can you update us on just your thinking around the operating self Storage Assets, it seems like that market or that business is starting to see deceleration and growth, but yet Private market cap rates still seem to be pretty strong. So just any updated thoughts on how you're thinking about that segment of the business?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Tony. Yes, look, it's something that we're continuing to evaluate. I think we still have the 3 broad options that we talk about, We could convert the operating assets to net lease similar to the transaction we did a couple of years ago. And then to your your point, we can also sell these at likely attractive cap rates and reinvest them in a net lease. I think all good options And we're always considering all the options, and we'll continue to do that.

Speaker 2

I think in the meantime, while same store has decelerated, We still like the mid single digit growth we are seeing in our portfolio. We also like self storage's resiliency in the event Of recession. And frankly, it's a nice complement to our net lease portfolio. So I think there's something to do there and we'll continue to evaluate, but nothing, I would say, imminent right now.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks. And then, I guess, just Again, starting to look out to 'twenty four with some of these items that we're starting to get some color on. You have the Las Vegas retail loan. How should we think about what happens with that next year?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. So just as a quick reminder, that was a loan that we originated in It was June of 2021. It was a construction loan for a retail development on a prime prime Location on the Las Vegas Strip, you can argue one of the best locations on the Strip. It was a maximum commitment around $280,000,000 or $260,000,000 And I think it's about 80% funded right now. All is going well.

Speaker 2

I think we're on budget, we're on schedule. I think we do expect that to complete at the end of the 4th quarter Of this year, lease ups gone really, really well. But I would suspect that our partner would look at Refinancing that at some point, but there's also the possibility that our loan stays in place for a little bit longer just given The broader capital markets, also want to remind you that we do have purchase options on some of the net lease units, which we'll Consider upon completion that we don't have to exercise those right away. So that's kind of the update, but I think the broader message also is it's

Speaker 7

Okay. But I mean, just trying to think, should we think about it as something where The outcome is more additive from an earnings point of view because maybe you either reinvest at a higher rate or you take it out And exercise the purchase option or the other way, I guess?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, there's going to be some ins and I think that the loan could get repaid at some point in time, but I think the offset to that being repaid Is that we can reinvest in the net lease units and we also have an option to buy into the broader portfolio or the broader development, Which I think could be highly accretive. So more to come on that. We don't have to make any decisions right now on those options. But I think to your point, I There are some meaningful offsets to the loan repayment when that happens.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Eric Wolf with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Thanks and good morning. You noted in your commentary that contractual growth should be 4% this year over 2% next year. I'm just curious whether sort of the commentary before about this comprehensive same store growth just being about 100 basis points less than that Should also hold through this year and then to the extent you have insight into next year at this point whether that would hold as well?

Speaker 3

Yes, I can cover that. I think typically we do see the comprehensive move around from 1 quarter to the next, but the 100 basis Point lag that you're seeing this quarter between contractual and comprehensive is about in line with what our long term expectation is there. So I think that's a reasonable assumption.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then with the Apotex deal, could you just talk about sort of if that tenant ever were to go dark, and I'm not saying that They're going to go dark, but if they ever did your ability to sort of backfill then, I guess the concern is that it's such a specialized So a piece of real estate for them that might not be applicable for others. Just talk about that and then maybe in the context of how you look Fungibility and for your industrial assets in general?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. I mean the Apotex deal, there is Some specialized nature to it, but I think the couple of important things to emphasize here is one is our basis. We're meaningfully I think number 1 for that type of advanced manufacturing. I think number 2, these are Pretty critical kind of production assets for generic pharmaceuticals, especially in Canada, Something that I think the Canadian government would certainly want to keep in operation. So we do think there's alternative users, there's capacity That would be needed and our facilities in the event Apotex something were to happen, we think there's going to be a lot of demand for that.

Speaker 2

But I think maybe the more important thing here is that Apotex is a big company. They've been around for a long time. It's a good credit. They have great market share in Canada. They also have exports Yes, certainly into the U.

Speaker 2

S. And other markets as well. So we're quite confident and feel good about that And I don't think that's an event we need to consider anytime soon.

Speaker 9

Understood. And then just last question. You said in your remarks that the cap rates for industrial assets have expanded more than the other asset classes you're looking at. Why do you think that's the case? I guess it's the opposite of what I would expect to just given some warm noise in other sectors.

Speaker 2

Yes. The biggest reason is the way we're sourcing these transactions. The bulk and I would say almost everything that we've been doing over the last number of quarters have been sale leaseback. Sale leasebacks tend to be good options for companies that own industrial real estate And this is maybe more I would say it's a combination of both warehouse and manufacturing. And so it's more about how we're sourcing it And the alternatives that those corporates or private equity sponsors have to fund their capital needs, The high yield debt markets, leverage loans, those have all gotten quite expensive, if available at all.

Speaker 2

So I think that's probably the biggest driver in the cap rates for our industrial

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jim Kammert with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Good morning. Obviously, the portfolio is basically top taking Occupancy here. Just curious though not to be a pill, but

Speaker 1

what does the watch list

Speaker 10

look like today if you could on the number of tenants and perhaps the ABR associated with them?

Speaker 2

Yes. Brooks, you want to take that?

Speaker 5

Sure. As Jason mentioned in his remarks, the watch list is pretty benign. I mean, it's about 2 point Percent of ABR, for context, that peaked out around 4% during COVID, And that's in line with last quarter. Not really any industry or geographic concentrations there. It's really a tenant specific story.

Speaker 5

And I think important to note that only a very small portion historically of our watch list has ever really matured into an actual default situation. And there's a few tenants on there which are in process of completing balance sheet restructures and our critical real estate That stood up to that. And when they complete those, they'll likely come off the watch list. Those will be much better balance sheet. So thus far, watch list is in a very stable place.

Speaker 10

Okay, terrific. And then just circling back a little bit on the office, you've clearly been purposely reducing your exposure. Just curious, it looks like you've had about $15 average rent on the existing remaining office portfolio. And I'm just Curious, what is your longer maybe 2 to 3 year plan in terms of whittling down the total exposure? And are you seeing any Headaches or roadblocks coming up in terms of some of the next renewals over the next 2 to 3 years on the office side?

Speaker 2

Yes. Maybe I'll start there and I'll hand it over to Brooks. I think the broader message here is, yes, the office exposure has come down meaningfully. I think we were over 30% 5 or 6 years ago. Now we're at 17 And I think that even goes lower once you factor in the post quarter closed transactions in Apotex and a couple of other industrial deals.

Speaker 2

And that downward We really haven't bought any office. And as Brooks mentioned earlier, we are overweighting office in our disposition. So that Continue. I don't know if Brooks has anything to add on anything, any specifics, but I think generally the our office Folio is different than what you think of as an office REIT. We just don't have a lot of thesis maturing on a regular basis.

Speaker 2

You can look at our top ten list and our largest office exposure is the state of Andalusia investment grade credit with Over 10 years of lease term remaining. So it's a little different scenario, but certainly we understand the fundamentals have changed there And there is a conscious effort to continue to move lower in office.

Speaker 10

Terrific. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Josh Dennerlein with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Jason, last time we spoke, you mentioned there were some maybe larger portfolio pipeline, but sellers were maybe dragging their feet a bit on going through with the transactions. I guess, really two questions. Just one, So is portfolio still in the pipeline?

Speaker 11

And then are there are you seeing any kind of increased urgency from sellers First like at the end of the year when we kind of had that conversation?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. I mean clearly one of the large Portfolios we are referring to with Zapotec's deal and that recently closed. I think there's still some other and there were some deals not that size, but Still larger than our average deal that has also closed and there's some more that we're looking at. So the pipeline kind of remains Active. And I think the themes that we talked about in the past and to your question, there still are A lot of important drivers for sale leasebacks and namely it's the broader capital markets and the alternative financing options Corporates just aren't as attractive or as price competitive.

Speaker 2

So I think we're seeing more and more companies look to sale leasebacks that are alternative. That trend is continuing, especially for corporate refinancing. I think that's an area that is important thing for us to focus on, I think we'll see some good opportunities there as companies have that company do and they prefer to look for a cheaper alternative like a sale leaseback.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thanks for that. And then I just wanted to touch on 2024 Sure, it is. It looks like or lease expirations rather. It looks like 6.4% for the sup and then I think a little less than half of that is U Haul.

Speaker 11

What else is coming up for expiration next year and just kind of what's kind of the latest dialogue with those tenants?

Speaker 2

Brooks, you want to handle that?

Speaker 5

Yes. Sure. Yes. As you mentioned, U Haul is almost half of that that's expiring. So it's a big chunk of that is U Haul.

Speaker 5

The store is really dominated by U Haul and then warehouse and industrial. It's pretty well mixed with other property types beyond that. Conversation is going well. It's a little too early to project outcomes. But we tend to really begin those conversations in earnest around 2 3 years in advance, sometimes if not earlier.

Speaker 5

So we're making a lot of progress there, and feel pretty good about it.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks Brooks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could just clarify the ABR and Apotex deal because I think you mentioned that transactions post quarter were $40,000,000 but when you look at your top tenant list, the 3rd largest tenant would be closer to 30,000,000 I just wanted to clarify that.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think it's going to come in as our number 3 tenant on the top ten list. I mean, we're not Disclosing specific ABR or cap rates for maybe competitive reasons right now, but the cap rate was within the range That we're targeting, which is kind of mid to high 6s into the 7s. And we did mention that the weighted average cap rate For the year, I'm sorry, year to date 7.2% and obviously, Apotex is a meaningful component of the deal volume for the year. So maybe the short answer is, it'll be a number 3 tenant until U Haul comes off, but it's effectively ABR based on a cap rate within that range that I mentioned.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's enough pieces of the puzzle. Jason, you also mentioned that they are taking the FX risk paying the rents in U. S. Dollars.

Speaker 8

Is that unique for an international portfolio or tenants? And does Apotex have a lot of U. S. Sales to

Speaker 2

It's not unique for Canadian deals. Those tend to be in U. S. Dollars. There There's clearly a much deeper pool of buyers for U.

Speaker 2

S. Dollar denominated leases. That's part of the equation. But the second part of your question is important as well. I mean they do have meaningful U.

Speaker 2

S. Dollar revenue And if they didn't, that would be maybe another concern, but they do. They have meaningful U. S. Dollar revenue and So that's a nice hedge or alignment with the lease being denominated to U.

Speaker 2

S. Dollars.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then final question is on the Marriott portfolio and the three assets that you've identified for redevelopment. I was wondering what stage they're in, if you And if you could remind us what kind of redevelopment projects you're looking to do?

Speaker 9

Brooks, you

Speaker 2

want to take that one?

Speaker 3

Sure.

Speaker 5

Yes. So there's 3 properties. We have not started deploying capital. They're in planning phases. And as Tony mentioned, they will continue operating its hotels in the meantime.

Speaker 5

One is in Newark near the airport. It's a prime industrial location. We're working through planning, as we speak. That's probably a 2024 project, Maybe later in that year. Then there's 2 properties in California, 1 in San Diego and 1 in Irvine.

Speaker 5

The San Diego property We'll be very well suited for life sciences over kind of the medium term. And there's some up zoning going on in that area, Which will create a lot of value for us. So that's a little bit later, maybe kind of 'twenty five, 'twenty six. And then Irvine, that one's still a little bit more in flux, fantastic location, Has a lot of upside either from a warehouse or resi perspective. In either case, we could evaluate a sale of the development site And that certainly would be likely in a residential situation, but more in that 2025 time frame.

Speaker 5

But all excellent sites, Really constrained locations and we'll continue operating as quality hotels in the meantime.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Olivia.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I am not Showing any further questions, I'll now hand the call back to Mr. Sands.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Jesse, and thanks everybody on the line for your interest in W. Carrie, if you have additional questions, please call Investor Relations at 212-492-1110. That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

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