Capital Power Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 1, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Capital Power executed a six-year extension for the Goreway efficiency upgrade, adding ~40 MW, raising contracted capacity to 880 MW and extending the clean energy contract to 2035.
  • The Genesee 1 & 2 repowering is on track for simple-cycle commissioning in Q4 2023 and combined-cycle operation in Q2 2024, with labor cost pressures largely offset by lower alternative solution expenses.
  • A final investment decision on the Genesee CCS project is expected by October, supported by a better-than-expected FEED study and federal measures such as carbon contracts for difference and a 50% refundable ITC.
  • In Q1 2023, Capital Power posted a record $401 million in adjusted EBITDA (+15% YoY) and $210 million in AFFO (+5% YoY), driven by higher Alberta power prices and the Midland Cogen acquisition.
  • The company has hedged 8,000 GWh of Alberta power (2024–26) at low-$70/MWh and 70,000 TJ of natural gas for 2024, and targets $600 million in committed growth capital, including two renewable project FIDs this year.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Capital Power Q1 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to Capital Power's First Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. And the conference call is being recorded today, May 1, 2023. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Randy Mah, the Director of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for

Speaker 2

joining us today to review Capital Power's Q1 2023 results, which we released earlier this morning. Our Q1 report and the presentation for this conference call are posted on our website at capitalpower.com. Joining me this morning are Brian Vazjo, President and CEO and Sandra Haskins, Senior Vice President, Finance and CFO. We will start with opening comments and then open the lines to take your questions. Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements about future events made on the call are forward looking in nature and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by the company.

Speaker 2

Actual results could differ materially from the company's expectations due to various risks and uncertainties associated with our business. Please refer to the cautionary statement Looking information on Slide 2. In today's discussion, we will be referring to various non GAAP financial measures and ratios As noted on Slide 3, these measures are not defined financial measures according to GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises. These measures are provided to complement the GAAP measures, which are provided in the analysis of the company's results from management's perspective. Reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP measures can be found in our Q1 2023 MD and A.

Speaker 2

Before I turn it over to Brian, I want to acknowledge that Capital Power's head office in Edmonton is located within the traditional and contemporary home of many indigenous peoples of the Treaty 6 region and the Metis Nation of Alberta Region 4. We acknowledge the diverse indigenous communities that are in these areas and whose presence continues to enrich the community and our lives as we learn more about the indigenous history of the lands on which we live and work. Okay, over to Brian for his remarks starting on Slide 4.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Randy, and good morning. To begin, I'd like to announce some very good news. Last week, we executed a 6 year contract extension for Gorouay relating to Its successful efficiency upgrade bid in ISO's same technology upgrade procurement. The efficiency upgrade of approximately 40 megawatts We'll increase CorAway's combined contracted capacity from 840 to 8 80 megawatts. The new combined contracted capacity of 8 80 Megawatts will apply to the existing ISO contract upon project completion and extend the clean energy supply contract from 2029 to 2,035.

Speaker 1

The upgrade, which will enhance the efficiency of the existing turbines, is expected to be finished in 2025. We also submitted an efficiency upgrade bid for our York Energy Center facility. Discussions with ISO are ongoing and we are optimistic York will also be awarded a contract extension. Turning to Slide 5. I'll provide an update on the Genesee 1 and 2 repowering project.

Speaker 1

The project is on schedule to achieve Simple cycle commissioning of both units in the Q4 of this year followed by combined cycle operations in the Q2 of 2024. The current repowering project cost of $1,100,000,000 with an additional $195,000,000 for the battery energy storage system. The availability of trades labor continues to be an industry wide issue and the repowering project is experiencing Modest labor cost increases. We are working closely with the EPC contractor and labor providers to assess the impact and develop Further mitigation strategies. The cost pressures, however, are expected to be substantially offset by the lower estimated cost of an alternative Solution to the best project.

Speaker 1

Overall, we continue to be on track to meet our goal of being off coal later this year. Moving to Slide 6. We continue to advance our decarbonization plans to meet our net 0 by 2,045 target. The Board is expected to approve the Genesee CCS project in principle by this summer with a final investment decision in October. The FEED study is essentially completed with results better than original expectation.

Speaker 1

This includes finalizing capital costs, confirmation of technology and the discussions of performance guarantees by Mitsubishi. The 2023 federal budget that was announced at the end of March included positive developments for the Genesee CCS project. This included reaffirmation of the role and mandate For the Canada Growth Fund to support derisking of large scale decarbonization through instruments such as carbon contracts with differences and enhancements to the 50% refundable ITC for carbon capture utilization and storage. And we continue to have ongoing discussions with the federal government relating to financial support. This includes discussions with Innovation, Science and Economic Development and the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

Speaker 1

These discussions are progressing well and on track with the schedule. I'll now turn it over to Sandra.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Brian. Starting on Slide 7, I'll touch on the Financial highlights for the Q1 of 2023. Overall, it was a strong quarter year over year. In fact, adjusted EBITDA of $401,000,000 was the highest quarter on record and was up 15% year over year, while revenues and other income before mark to market was up 34% compared to the prior year. Financial results benefited from higher realized Alberta power prices, partly offset by milder temperatures across most North American regions that reduced the dispatch of facilities such as Decatur.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBITDA further benefited from the acquisition of Midland Cogen Facility in September 2022. AFFO of $210,000,000 was up 5% year over year, reflecting the strong adjusted EBITDA results and fewer turnaround activities, which was partially offset by higher current income tax expense. And net cash Sales from operating activities were primarily impacted by higher receivables at our Alberta commercial facilities and changes in forward prices on our commodity derivative positions. Turning to Slide 8, I'll touch on our Alberta Power natural gas hedge positions, which are shown as of March 31, 2023. Since the end of 2022, our power hedge volume for 2020 has increased from 7000 to 8000 gigawatt hours and from 6000 to 6,500 gigawatt hours for 2025.

Speaker 3

Our hedge position for 2026 is 4,000 gigawatt hours. The weighted average hedge prices for all 3 years are in the low $70 The hedge positions include long duration origination contracts as another mechanism to manage price risk. The graph on the left shows the relative magnitude of hedges that are long duration extending out to years where we will see lower forward power prices. We've also increased natural gas hedges since year end. Natural gas volumes of 70,000 TJs in 2024, 60,000 TJs in 2025, 35,000 TJs in 2026 have been hedged at favorable prices compared to current forwards, as noted in the table on this slide.

Speaker 3

Moving to Slide 9, the chart here illustrates the movement Alberta Power price forward compared to the forward curve that determined our 2023 financial guidance, which is shown by the blue line and averaged 130 dollars per megawatt hour. To explain this further, the yellow line shows the year to date actual settled prices and current forward prices that average $4 per megawatt hour for the year. This strengthened since we held our Q4 analyst call on March 1, as shown by the orange line. At that time, the settled price and balance of year forward prices averaged $135 per megawatt hour. As you can see, there is significant increase to both previous benchmarks.

Speaker 3

Although we're well hedged for the year, The remaining open position of the non baseload assets are well positioned to capitalize on volatile market conditions. On Slide 10, I'll conclude my remarks by reviewing our Q1 performance, our 2023 targets and outlook. Sustaining CapEx was $23,000,000 in Q1. There are several planned outages remaining this year at Clover Bar, York Energy, Decatur and Midland. Sustained CapEx is on track to meet its 2023 target of $135,000,000 to $145,000,000 Considering planned outages, we are on track to achieve the 94% availability target.

Speaker 3

For 2023, we are targeting 1 point $455,000,000,000 to $1,515,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA and $805,000,000 to $865,000,000 in AFFO. Capitalizing on the positive outlook in Alberta forward prices would move results to the upper end of these guidance ranges. Our growth outlook for 2023 is positive. This includes our well positioned natural gas facilities in to address the capacity gap in the province starting with the 6 year contract extension for Gorway that Brian highlighted. And as part of our $600,000,000 of committed growth capital target, we expect to make an investment decision on 2 renewable projects this year.

Speaker 3

Overall, we expect 2023 to be an excellent year, both financially and strategically. I'll now turn the call back over to Randy.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Sandra. Charisse, we're ready to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from Mark Jarvi with CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. First question is just on the contract with Gorway. Brian, can you maybe explain in terms of how The pricing works, whether or not you've brought down the capacity payments to get the extension, if they're flat To 2,035 or do they step down when you get into the 6 year extension?

Speaker 3

So Mark, it's Sandra. We're limited on how much we can disclose at this point given that the ISO is still having ongoing negotiations with ourselves and others as But I can say that when the contract kicks in, in 2025 and COD, we'll see a modest up tick in our adjusted EBITDA as a result of the extension and then see a step down in the post contract period, which is the last 6 years.

Speaker 4

Okay. And any indication in terms of cost to deliver on the up rate?

Speaker 3

That's part of what we're not able to disclose. But I think once this process is through, we'll be able to provide more details on The contracts and their costs and relative economics.

Speaker 4

Okay. All right. We'll wait for that then. And then just in terms of the costs And the higher labor at Genesys, are you able to sort of roughly quantify that? And I guess relative to where you are now and What has to get done?

Speaker 4

Is there any real, I guess, sort of timing in terms of where you might face the biggest kind of cost creep? Are you going to that right now? Is it is there more labor to come through the balance of the summer as you go through completion? Maybe just kind of how much Visibility you have on costs and any pressures remain to completion?

Speaker 1

So Mark, in terms of the Cost increases that we're seeing at Genesee, as we indicated, it's substantially related to The cost of labor, we still are seeing some pressures around the interconnection. But in terms of labor, we've got a very good handle on Hours and so on and so forth. So we're not expecting that kind of variance. It boils down to The cost per hour for various trades and where those costs are coming in and the cost pressures From a competitive perspective in terms of other projects that are going on and maintenance that's taking place in Alberta. So we're currently working through that, coming up with revised estimates and expectations.

Speaker 1

But I can say at this point, when we're looking at the project and including VES, when you sort of put it together, We expect at the end of the day to be relatively in the same spot. So not An expectation of very significant changes in overall costs.

Speaker 4

But with you spelling out the best costs of Around $200,000,000 So you're implying that the labor cost could eat a good chunk of that and then you'd have to shave or find some cost savings around the best alternative. So that's so you're sort of in a 10% of total budget sort of increase potential from labor. Is that right?

Speaker 1

In terms of total labor, Again, we're going through that right now. We'll our expectation is in July, we'll have a much fuller description of where we That cost to go and the ultimate cost associated with the best alternatives And again, in combination, expect to end up in the same spot.

Speaker 4

Understood. And then just coming to the CCS decision here and obviously one element you want to derisk is on the contract for Can you just maybe update us in terms of how active the discussions are? Is it ultimately you're looking for a fixed price on the credit value, not so much The reference carbon pricing, just maybe update us on the status and the type of contract you're trying to seek there.

Speaker 1

So what we're looking for is a Contract, and I'll just refer to it as a strike price associated with carbon price. And what we're looking for is Establishing one where we're actually turning credits into cash, a contract for differences where upside would be shared 90% with the government and as well any shortfall to the tune of 90% borne by the government. And then some basically basement, I'll call it pricing associated with those credits, which we We utilize ourselves to ensure that overall the project continues to be bankable regardless of government policy risk As we move forward, so that's the general structure that we're looking at. It is it obviously does Implications are referenced to the overall carbon market, but I think as we shared With you at Investor Day, our expectation is that what I'll refer to again as our strike price is well before well below The government stated pricing expectations of $170 a megawatt hour in 20 or pardon me, a tonne in 2,030.

Speaker 4

So just Brian, the way you spoke about it, would Capital Power be taking some of the risk on settlement prices in terms of the credit? So If there was oversupplied at times or undersupplied, yes.

Speaker 1

So what the only risk that we'd be taking is for that Small 10% interest in terms of variance away from the strike price.

Speaker 4

Okay. All right. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning, everyone. Maybe a bit of a broader question. Just regarding to Avic Day being announced as the CEO, I guess, a week or 2 ago. Can you maybe comment on why he is the right choice and kind of the What he what you believe he brings to the organization?

Speaker 1

So actually, Robert, at the end of the Call. I do have I've got a couple of comments to make. But I'd also say, the Board went through a very rigorous Process for an extended period of time and concluded that AVOC in among a number of alternatives, concluded that Havoc was the best individual to be moving the organization forward. I would say that I Although providing input and information into the process, I was not involved in the decision making But I would say I'm fully supportive of the decision that the Board made. And

Speaker 4

again, I'll have a couple

Speaker 1

of comments At the end of this call in regards to that.

Speaker 5

Okay. That was a little early. Then moving over to the Renewables side of the business. How does the environment look? And kind of where are we in the development timeline in terms of the targeted 2 announcements for 2023?

Speaker 1

So the market continues to be a little bit choppy with clarification of rules and so on and so forth. But we still remain confident that we'll likely have 2 investment decisions this year on the renewable side. We continue to move some projects forward in anticipation of, again, a couple of them coming to fruition This year.

Speaker 5

All right. Thank you for that. And Brian and Kate, all the best in retirement.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Maurice Choi with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you and good morning. I just want to come back to the cost pressures and the CCS as well. Any implications Of the repowering cost pressures on the CCS project, or are you anticipating that much of these labor cost issues might dissipate

Speaker 1

So in terms of the implication Discussing in-depth with both Mitsubishi and Keywood as it relates to the project And the degree to which Capital Power will be taking on some or all or none of that risk is still an item of active discussion. So in any event, more to come on that. But I would expect for the next few years And depending on specific timing, there will continue to be labor pressures in the province and As such, continuing to see some cost pressures. However, I would say that what we're seeing much like we're seeing In all areas, there are some significant upward pressure on prices that are due to the recent and Significant inflation that has subsided. So looking at significant cost increases being more of a onetime event as opposed to perpetual event of quite high escalation in labor costs.

Speaker 6

Thanks. And I assume that when you look at the ITCs and all the other enhancements that you have, those present to you A cost mitigation in regards to these pressures. Is that fair to say?

Speaker 1

So naturally, the ITCs are a mitigate For 50% of the costs, in that if there's a cost increase, then half of that essentially is covered by ITCs. On the other side, we do anticipate there will probably be some discussions In terms of what happens between striking the project in October And the agreements that would be in place there and any cost changes that come to pass from then to the end of the project. On one end of the spectrum, that may all be owners' costs, but there may also be some avenue for Mechanisms to share some of those changes in costs. And again, that's subject to negotiation and discussion between now October.

Speaker 6

Thanks for that and looking forward to those details when that's announced. Switching over to A regulatory question, the clean electricity regulation. As you think about the release of the first draft legislation this spring, What would you view to be a good outcome for your company, including the benchmark and also the number of prescribed life in terms of years?

Speaker 1

So in the major issue for us or I believe there's really 2. There's at the One is the end of life for existing facilities. And we're thinking that an out More in line with the 30 year or 35 year is more in line with the physical life of the assets. But also as we're seeing in Ontario and some emerging work in Alberta, there's need for So gas to be on longer and probably deeper. So we think that those Trends will again push some of that expected life term out a bit.

Speaker 1

There's also some provisions that we haven't seen yet or don't have clarity on what sort of avenue is there for Peaking type facilities and so on, on a go forward basis, again, beyond 2,035. So there's still a lot to be Seeing in terms of post-two thousand and thirty five, but we expect that there will be The significant amount of consultation taking place with the release of Gazette 1. And we've been It's been expressed to us that a lot of Gazette I will be a basis for further discussion as opposed to This is the law and without again, there will be a significant amount of A significant amount of consultation taking place with the release of Gazette 1. And we've been It's been expressed to us that a lot of Gazette 1 will be a basis for further discussion as opposed to This is the law and without again much avenue for discussion. So we're hopeful that The results at the end of the day will be constructive for Capital Power.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you for the color.

Operator

The next question comes from John Mould with TD

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just going back to the CCS project and more just the steps We should anticipate between now and then FID more on the government support side. You will have seen the Heidelberg Announcement from about a month ago that they signed a partnership agreement with the government of Canada and we're working on negotiations. I mean, should we expect The CCS project at Genesee to sort of go down a similar path in In terms of an initial MOU and further discussions with various government entities before we see the finalized CFD In place how should we think about all that?

Speaker 1

So what we've been attempting to do since We started talking about this project more than a year ago. It sort of move everything along at the same rate and have things come together at different points in time. So much like around Investor Day, there was a number of things that came together That pushed the project forward and made it even more a reality. The same thing We expect to happen in July where we'll have documentation from The different avenues of government support, including Canadian Investment Bank, SIF, etcetera. And also at the same time, the completion of our FEED study and a very good view of cost.

Speaker 1

Then as we move forward to and at that point, expect, as I indicated earlier, we'll have We'll be approaching the Board for an approval in principle of the project, and that provides us Greater opportunity and provides some significant Initiative in terms of getting completed agreements from each of the government, the support entities Plus final commercial arrangements with the contractors on the project. So Again, we're moving everything along at the same on the same schedule as opposed to sort of 1 piece at a time.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thanks for that. And maybe just on the FEED study, Brian, you had I said earlier in your prepared remarks that, that was coming out a little bit better than expected. Are you able to give just a little more Color on that and in particular the kind of technical and operational elements and how that's coming out versus what you've been hoping?

Speaker 1

So at the just to sort of frame up the FEED study, what we put in there were Elements that we felt, for example, dealing with the fact that the facility will have to ramp up and down, We put in parameters that said the FEED study, that technology needs to meet these kinds of parameters to actually be operational for us. And what we're finding is that as they've gone through the work, there's greater flexibility in the unit Then we had set as minimum expectations. So that's one area. Costs In terms of the operating costs, energy, etcetera, is tending to be better than What we had anticipated at the outset, capital cost is continues to be coming in very promising. Lee Ann, certainly, a lot of the work around establishing what would be appropriate performance guarantees, The fact that Mitsubishi is going to provide a significant amount of performance guarantees is very Promising for us and we weren't necessarily expecting that we would get as extensive Performance guarantees as we believe we'll be getting.

Speaker 1

And when we look at the numbers around those guarantees, I think we've shared that Initially, we were hoping to get about a 95% performance guarantee on capture. That does seem to be what the number that Mitsubishi will guarantee. And that's the guaranteed number as opposed to their expectation, which is Often different. But again, getting to a number that they'll actually guarantee It's very positive for us. So it's again, it's pretty much on all fronts.

Speaker 1

It's turning out to be much better than we had anticipated.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks for that. And maybe just one last one on the renewables projects in terms of trying to finalize those I'm just curious on the interconnect side, can you just maybe give us more broadly an overview of the interconnection Environment you're seeing in your core markets for renewables and a sense of how that's impacting the pace at which you're able to advance your pipeline?

Speaker 1

So you put your finger on a significant challenge for the industry. And If you take Alberta, for example, whenever we're connecting, obviously, there's an interconnection. But In addition to that, there's also growing capacity constraints and so on. So that's definitely an area to be mindful of and certainly It's having an impact on what projects should be moving forward and what projects should be waiting until there is some Enhancements to the transmission system to allow them to connect. In the U.

Speaker 1

S, it's a very Mixed bag. However, I'd say that interconnection is a problem. And from an industry perspective, Typically, the projects that I was referring to that we're moving forward are extremely well positioned from an interconnect perspective. Whereas there's others in our portfolio of opportunities that we went forward and applied for Interconnection, you'd be looking at years before you'd be connected. So the wide range.

Speaker 1

But The projects that we that I think we laid out at Investor Day as being ones that are near potential investment decision, All are in process and in some cases may have interconnection arrangements already.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. I'll leave it there. Thanks very much for taking my questions and all the best to you, Brian, and also to Keith on your pending returns.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, thanks. Good morning. And also all the best in retirement, Brian. Maybe first question on the Renewable Power side of things with Acquisition market, can you comment on maybe high level trends, particularly with how does it look On M and A for Renewable versus Build and has the bar composition changed at all When you look at the last 6 to 12 months.

Speaker 1

So in terms of the acquisition side, the biggest Challenge for us as it comes to renewables is just simply our cost of capital versus a lot of the financial players out there. So that continues to be a significant trend, continuing to see Financial interests in their either in their own name or supporting Organizations that they would be in partnership with. So there continues to be that pressure On the Renewables side, on the other hand, issues that we've just talked about in terms of interconnection, Basis differentials and a number of other issues seem to be Creating a perception that renewables may not be as great an investment As I say, they were thought of maybe a year ago. So I'd say on balance, competition is about the same As it has been historically, maybe a bit of a shift in players, but it still is at Cost of capital that we have difficulty competing with. On the development side, We create our own value.

Speaker 1

And so we find that that's not we continue to be Well positioned for bidding projects or bidding opportunities from a greenfield perspective.

Speaker 8

Okay. So it sounds like greenfield is still better than M and A?

Speaker 1

By a long shot on the Renewables side.

Speaker 8

Okay, interesting. And maybe in Alberta, there's some spec that there could be some Alberta Power assets for sale. Maybe you can comment on your exposure in Alberta with CCS. Do you think you're full And now Burton, could you remind us around your market share position and how high you can go?

Speaker 1

So in terms of assets or the appetite to acquire assets in Alberta, There certainly are a couple of assets that if they ever came to the market might consider or ones like take for example, Shepherd facility, if Enmax was announcing that they wanted to sell it half, we might well be interested in purchasing it or Going along with them and selling the whole asset. So there are assets that are strategic to us today that again, we may consider going forward. In terms of assets that don't necessarily have a significant market Or anything that brings additional value other than simply megawatts, we would tend not to be interested in. We're pretty comfortable with the Alberta position where we're at. And certainly, If we grew significantly in Alberta, there's no magic numbers around where you start running into concentration issues.

Speaker 1

There are some Statements that have been made in the past sort of around 20% or whatever, but where you start running into Some issues can well be below that depending on the types of assets you have or you could exceed that, but you'd be faced with dispatch Requirements on some of your or all of your facilities, which certainly would impair the value of the Portfolio in general. So pretty comfortable where we're at. But again, certain strategic assets we may well be interested in.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's great color. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Kuske with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning. I guess just with the evolution of the Alberta power market and what's sort of coming down the pipeline With another sort of market transition with new supply coming online, how has your hedging philosophy evolved amidst all of that? And Clearly, you layered in a bunch of hedges in the quarter, but how are you thinking about the evolution of your policy and just the economics associated with it?

Speaker 3

Good morning, Andrew. So I think what we've been doing for the last number of quarters now and that we've spoken to is that the expectation of incremental Why we'll bring prices back in line with a longer term sort of average expectation. And as a result of that, We have been very active in the origination market with multiyear contracts, just thinking of the backwardation of the power curve. So That has been a nuance of our strategy that was prudent given the incremental length that we now have with The return of Genesee 1 and 2. Beyond that, our philosophy and our approach to hedging It remains unchanged for the balance of the book.

Speaker 3

We look at our view on where prices will move, and we'll Hedge accordingly. So expect that we'll continue to mitigate risk by laying off length at prices that we think are attractive and Use the efficiency of our fleet to capitalize on those upside. So no shift in strategy, I'd

Speaker 9

Okay. Appreciate that. And then as far as Structured offerings of power from natural gas facilities and then pure renewable power. Are you seeing anything sort of interesting on that front across your markets? Or are they really 2 distinct and very different markets from a customer standpoint?

Speaker 1

They're actually pretty distinct from a customer perspective. Typically, Those organizations, particularly the commercial ones that are pursuing long term renewable contracts, Cost of energy doesn't tend to be a large component for them. Whereas where you get parties Stepping into hedge 7 by 24 power positions, etcetera, they tend to be more, I'll say energy intensive. So definitely different markets and looking for Different attributes and benefits. And certainly, they come together in terms of visibility of one to the other, but Don't see a significant amount of overlap at this point in time.

Speaker 9

Okay. Appreciate that. And then one final one, if I can sneak it in. And it's just on the hydro situation in Western Canada and also the Pac Northwest. The data looks a bit mixed right now from a standpoint of Some places above average, some places below average.

Speaker 9

I guess, how do you think about the hydrology situation in the West And then how that transmits back into Alberta in the summer market.

Speaker 1

So we're looking at that as being somewhat neutral as Obviously, the implications in BC is that it sets how much energy they may have in excess of their Own requirements are available to export south or to the east. When we look in Alberta, There's been some pretty good snowpack in a few places, but generally speaking, moisture levels in I've been a little bit lower. But again, it's very dependent on a specific area in which The water catchment takes place. So again, as you say, it's a pretty mixed bag. I think what We're kind of watching quite closely though is as you look down the Pacific Northwest, what implications there may be in California and how that impacts On power prices in the province.

Speaker 9

Okay. Very much appreciated. Thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from Najeebaidun with IA Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning. I don't know if there's something that you can disclose or maybe it's a bit too early, but do you have a target for the Equity Partnership on Hawkerk.

Speaker 1

So the partnership we are looking at, at Hellkirk is First Nations participation, and that's In progress in terms of discussions, but beyond First Nations participation, we're not looking at any other Partnership on Hellkirk.

Speaker 10

Okay. And I guess it's a bit too soon to Quantify what that would mean in terms of the like the amount or the percentage?

Speaker 1

It's a little bit early at this point.

Speaker 10

Okay. Okay. That's fair. And just related to this kind of a broader funding strategy, maybe tied back to the earlier question about Renewables M and A, not just on Hawkerk, but maybe other projects going forward. Are you maybe Thinking about sort of a broader funding strategy that is tied to selling down ownership stakes in renewable assets, either Asset specific sell downs or maybe like a larger portfolio monetization, is that something that's part of the strategy going forward?

Speaker 3

Asset sell downs on Renewables has sort of been in our toolkit for a while. It's nothing that we have obviously on at this point other than our disposal of K2 a number of years ago, but I would say that, that is an option that remains With us where we feel that we could unleash some value in our renewables by bringing in a partner on it. So I would Say it's something that is we keep warm on the table, but there's no immediate plans to do that. We'll just weigh that against Other alternatives of generating funds as we move forward.

Speaker 10

Okay, understood. So nothing imminent that will cause you to need Access to that kind of capital, but it's on the table. And maybe just a last

Speaker 2

Sorry, I would just add

Speaker 3

to that. And Partly in I would say is that when you look at our cash flow this year and the growth we have on the table, we are more than Funding with internally generated cash, so that in and of itself wouldn't drive us to execute on anything in the near term.

Speaker 10

Got it. Understood. And just maybe a final clarification question. Of the 2 renewable project FIDs target for this year, Is that separate from the rebidding of the North Carolina solar projects or would those be a part of that?

Speaker 1

They would be potentially part of that, although I'm not sure timing would necessarily line up With those projects, but definitely, those are ones that we'll be moving forward with this year.

Speaker 10

Understood. Okay. Thank you very much and congrats Kate and Brian on the retirement.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from David Quezada with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just

Speaker 11

a follow-up on the CCS project and specifically The Hub with Enbridge, just wondered if there's any progress on sort of the deliverables for that piece. I believe that something around the geology and I guess you're developing a sort of a commercial agreement there. So any details you could share there? So

Speaker 1

in terms of the development of the hub, they have been drilling Well into the formation or well into the formation That they would utilize for the sequestration of the carbon, that's gone well. And that is also in conjunction with tests they had done years ago into the same formation. And so this will be very much a test well to ensure that the formation works, that it holds Tools, pressure and etcetera, etcetera. So that's things are going, I think, a little bit behind where We had expected that no significant delay in timing at all. In addition to that, we have started In-depth commercial discussions and with the Expectations that we'd have, be close to an agreement by July and certainly finalized agreements by the October timeframe.

Speaker 10

Excellent. Thanks, Brian. Appreciate that detail. And then maybe just one more for me on Haltrip, 2. I'm just curious if

Speaker 11

you have any, what your plans are for the portion of the capacity that's not under contract there? And maybe on a related note, What kind of demand you're seeing from corporate buyers in Alberta today for renewables?

Speaker 1

So there continues to be demand in Alberta for Renewables, we do expect that given some of the earlier discussions on Constraints on some of the transmission side and so on and so forth. We're actually not in a big hurry to market it. As we expected, some of the values may start improving because the competition in the market may not be quite As extensive as it has been over the last couple of years. So do expect that at some point it will be contracted, but again, Not in a rush to see it contracted in the near term.

Speaker 11

Excellent. Thanks for that. And I'll reiterate the Best wishes on your time, Brian and Kate.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thank you. Good morning. Just to follow-up on the Alberta power market here. I guess with the provincial election right around the corner, Just wanted to check-in to see if you're hearing any rumblings of any regulatory changes or revisions that could come along with either political platform that might have an impact on either the market construct, The pace of renewables development or perhaps your own decarbonization plans in the province.

Speaker 1

So just starting at the top, both parties have expressed support Continuing support for the energy only market. So and that has been Public on both fronts. The other thing that's out there, Pat, is the there's the ISO has issued a report that suggests that there needs to be some modest changes to Whether it be market construct or whether it be transmission or whatever, that would tend to be more supportive of natural gas, Less supportive of renewables as we go forward and with a bit of a sense of urgency. So we expect Whoever wins the election, we'll move on that. And we expect the outcome of those deliberations to be Positive for Capital Power or if anything, potentially slightly negative.

Speaker 1

So Again, we'll see how that develops, but we would expect both parties wouldn't argue with physics And would move forward with some sort of, again, very modest adjustments. So on balance, we're I'm saying that there's a lot of issues both parties have taken when looking at Costs have taken the positions around. Instead of trying to impact on the wholesale market, they have Ended up with subsidies on the retail side. So again, we're not seeing anything that would cause us Any great political concern. I think for once, we're actually not in the crosshairs in a political debate leading up to an election.

Speaker 1

So Pretty pleased with that position.

Speaker 12

Okay. That's great color. Thanks, Brian. And then just One last housekeeping item, apologies if I missed it, but any update on the timing for potentially rebidding the North Carolina solar projects?

Speaker 1

That is sometime in the late summer fall timeframe.

Speaker 12

Okay. And your thoughts around, I guess, potentially rebidding based on Existing market dynamics and where econs are currently sitting?

Speaker 1

So we're actually we continue to be pretty darn Positive about the rebidding prospect given that we're some of the issues that we're talking about before in terms of connections and so We're actually set. They've been negotiated because, again, we're rebidding. We're real comfortable with those kinds of risks and costs around the project. So we're feeling pretty good about those.

Speaker 12

All right. Thank you. And Brian, Kate, congrats on taking the company to where it is today.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Brian Bostro for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you. To start, I'd like to thank the investment community for working with me and supporting Capital Power over the past 14 years. I really enjoyed the respectful, candid and constructive discussions. To the analysts on the call, thank you for the work you've done on the Capital Power name over the past number of years. I know our story has been a challenge from time to time, but I feel you've always given us the benefit of the doubt.

Speaker 1

Looking forward, I'm very comfortable leaving Capital Power in AbbVie's hands. I've known AbbVie for several years, And I'm confident he is aligned with the strategy we've been talking about to you over the last number of years and is very capable of driving Capital Power forward. Avik is on the call this morning, and we'll share some of his own thoughts with you. Avik?

Speaker 13

Thank you for the introduction, Brian. Firstly, I'd like to acknowledge Brian on his 15 years at the helm of Capital Power. The strength of the company's culture, people and assets is a testament to his leadership and commitment to the organization. We all wish you a happy and healthy retirement, Brian. I'd also like to congratulate Kate Chisholm on her retirement and acknowledge her for her contribution and service The company has a long standing history of delivering reliable and affordable electricity across North America.

Speaker 13

The company's well defined strategy of investing in critical natural gas generation, building new renewable capacity and establishing decarbonization solutions for our fleet has established this company as a leader on energy transition. Going forward, we remain committed to this strategy and we'll look to further build upon our leadership position. I also look forward to an active and engaging dialogue with our investor community as we come off of coal in 2023 and chart our path towards becoming net 0 by 2,045. Our ability to deliver per share value growth and performance relies on the continued support of our shareholders. I know that all of us at Capital Power are deeply appreciative of our investor support and we look forward to furthering that relationship over the coming quarters years.

Speaker 13

I am grateful to be joining this incredible

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Vivek. Okay. That concludes our conference call. Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Capital Power.

Speaker 2

Have a good day, everyone.

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