Williams Companies Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 4, 2023

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Williams First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Danilo Giovanni, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Abby, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in The Williams Companies. Yesterday afternoon, we released our earnings press release and the presentation that our President and CEO, Alan Armstrong And our Chief Financial Officer, John Porter, who will speak to you this morning. Also joining us on the call today are Michael Dunn, our Chief Operating Officer Lane Wilson, our General Counsel and Chad Zemarin, our Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategic Development. In our presentation materials, you'll find a disclaimer related to This disclaimer is important and integral to our remarks and you should review it.

Speaker 1

Also included in the presentation materials Our non GAAP measures that we reconcile to generally accepted accounting principles and these reconciliation schedules appear at the back of the day's presentation materials. And with that, I'll turn it over to Alan Armstrong.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Danilo, and thank you all for joining us today. Our natural gas focused strategy continues to deliver steady predictable growth and this past year was no exception sorry, this past quarter was no exception with our adjusted EBITDA Up nearly 20% compared to the Q1 of 2022. And let me remind you that last year was a record year for growth as well And we were up 14% on an annual basis. So really a big quarter for us on a tough comp. We saw strong performance across all key financial metrics in the Q1 and set new records in our key operational stats as well, Once again demonstrating our business' resiliency through commodity price swings.

Speaker 2

But beyond this obvious financial performance in the headlines, Please don't miss the importance of the accomplishments in this past quarter that will serve to produce growth in 2024 and beyond. So let me start out here on Slide 2 by highlighting a few of these accomplishments that will continue to drive what has now been over 10 years of consistent year over year EBITDA growth. First, we closed the acquisition of the Mountain West Natural Gas Transmission and Expands our services to key Rockies markets. We're really happy with how the integration of Mountain West into Williams has been progressing since we closed in February. And in fact, we're already seeing several expansion opportunities that were not in our pro form a, proving this asset is best positioned to be optimized Our team also accelerated the timing on key deliverables for several other fixed Fee based projects that are all supported by long term contracts.

Speaker 2

This includes our Louisiana Energy Gateway Project, Transco's Southeast Energy Connector and Transco's Regional Energy Access project. In fact, Project execution is now in full swing on both Regional Energy Access and Louisiana Energy Gateway. And as a result of the quick action By the FERC and our construction teams, we now expect to bring approximately half of this regional energy access capacity Into service ahead of schedule and actually in the Q4 of this year. So that will be just in time to meet growing demand in the Northeast region ahead of the winter heating season. Of course, this will also provide new market for producers on our Northeast Pennsylvania gathering systems, which of course Is incremental to the returns on a project like that.

Speaker 2

We also executed several key agreements with Chevron to Wire Trace Gathering System and a long term capacity commitment on our Louisiana Energy Gateway project. This is a great example of Williams and Chevron working together to connect prolific domestic resources to expanding LNG export markets. We also placed several large scale gathering expansions into service this quarter. The Marcellus South gathering expansion in Southwest Appalachia Increased our capacity by 100,000,000 cubic feet a day for rich gas supplies in this area and significant progress was also made On our build out of the new and fully contracted capacity on our Susquehanna County gathering system in Northeast PA. We also added 100,000,000 cubic feet per day of capacity this quarter as part of the second phase of our Haynesville Spring Ridge Expansion.

Speaker 2

And we saw a first flow for the Taggart Expansion Project in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Across our Devils Tower platform, importantly, this is the first of 5 significant expansion projects that are expected to come online over the next 2 years and that will ultimately double our Gulf of Mexico earnings contributions. Finally, I'll add that we're moving forward on a number of projects in our backlog and our visibility to growth on the transmission side of the business is as good as we have seen it. From a financial perspective, the strength of our assets across all areas is reflected in our solid Q1 results and in fact our base business produced record contracted transmission capacity and record gathering volumes even after we exclude the contributions from acquisitions. The one underperforming area was in NGL processing margins, but more about this in a moment. Importantly, this was a quarter in which we saw Sequent fully optimized assets in our base business, underscoring the balance and improved commercial competencies that the Sequin acquisition has delivered for the benefit of our natural gas strategy.

Speaker 2

So for example, in the Northeast, we benefited from record gathering volumes and significantly outperformed the broader Marcellus production trends as Sequent provided takeaway markets uniquely for our producing customers in Ohio. In the transmission and Gulf of Mexico segment, we realized higher short term firm sales on our pipes as Seqent helped to commercialize more business in that area Well, and now back to the big variance in our processing margins. In the West, our NGL processing margins on the legacy Williams business We're actually negative due to abnormally high natural gas prices at Opal and really throughout everything west of Opal. Normally, this would have shown up as a significant negative issue for the quarter. However, Sequent was able to capitalize on these large natural gas basis spreads in the West and more than offset the negative NGL margins turning this volatility into a net positive for Williams.

Speaker 2

Our acquisitions continue to deliver as expected, proving that our capital allocation strategy To fund these transactions with excess Sequent and E and P cash flows is setting us up for continued reliable and predictable earnings growth. I'd also note that as the market continues to under appreciate and undervalue the strength and resilience of our business, We stand ready to utilize our repurchase program as we did during this Q1. So overall, a great quarter That has us set up for growth in 2024 and beyond. And with that, John will walk us through the financial metrics for the quarter. John?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Al. Starting here on Slide 4 with a summary of our year over year financial performance. Beginning with adjusted EBITDA, we saw a 19 As we'll see on the next slide, our adjusted EBITDA growth included growth of over $100,000,000 from our core Large scale natural gas transmission and gathering and processing businesses including new records for both gathering and contracted transmission capacity. But it also included strong performance from our Sequent Gas Marketing business, which dramatically overcame a perfect storm of severe winter weather impacts on our Wyoming businesses. Those Wyoming impacts included hits to both upstream and gathering and processing volumes as well as our Southwest Wyoming gas processing margins, which were much lower from a surge in January shrink replacement gas price.

Speaker 3

Our adjusted EPS increased 37% for the quarter continuing the strong growth we've had in EPS over the last many years. Available Funds from operations, AFFO growth was even better than adjusted EBITDA at 22% year over year. Also you see our dividend coverage Based on AFFO was a very strong 2.65 times on a dividend that grew 5.3% over the prior year. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen with debt to adjusted EBITDA now reaching 3.57 times versus last year's 3.81 times And that's even after closing the Tray, Nortek and Mountain West acquisitions and also repurchasing $83,000,000 of shares since last year. On growth CapEx, you see an increase over Q1 last year, primarily reflecting the progress we're making on some of our key growth projects, including Regional Energy Access and Louisiana Energy Gateway.

Speaker 3

So before we move to the next slide and dig a little deeper into our adjusted EBITDA results for the quarter, We'll provide a few updates to our 2023 financial guidance. No change to our consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of 6 Processing businesses should see some additional growth from the Q1 level. For transmission in Gulf of Mexico, we'll see some ramp from a full quarter of Mountain West Pipeline and some other smaller sequential improvements through the rest of the year that should allow for a strong finish to the year. In the Northeast, we're expecting a modest increase towards the end of the year from the Q1 EBITDA level, primarily from our higher margin liquids rich systems. Overall though, we're not counting on a lot of additional growth in the Northeast from this $470,000,000 1st quarter level, which was up 12% over the prior year.

Speaker 3

In the West, we are expecting some modest increases through the remainder of the year from the $286,000,000 first quarter level, especially reflecting improvement from some of the challenges we saw in the Q1, which we'll discuss further on the next slide. For the marketing business, we've had a strong overall start to 2023 and importantly hitting the midpoint of our guidance doesn't rely on any additional EBITDA With respect to the upstream joint venture EBITDA guidance, it's been a tough start to our Wyoming operation With extremely difficult winter weather that significantly impacted producing volume and our drilling plan. So we see this business likely trending towards the lower half $230,000,000 to $430,000,000 guidance range. But to be clear, for our consolidated adjusted EBITDA, we are still focused on hitting at least the midpoint of our guidance range at $6,600,000,000 We are increasing our growth CapEx by $200,000,000 to reflect the acceleration of our largest Transco project, Regional Energy Access, which we hope to bring into partial service later this year. Early partial in service for Regional Energy Access Won't have a huge impact on 2023 and is really just upside to our hitting the midpoint of our guidance for EBITDA.

Speaker 3

So let's turn to the next slide take a little closer look at the Q1 results. Again, the Q1 matched our expectations for a very strong start record $1,795,000,000 we start with our upstream joint venture operations that are included in our other segment, which were up only $3,000,000 over last year. Our Haynesville upstream EBITDA was up about $32,000,000 as there was really very little production in the Q1 of last year. However, the Haynesville increase was offset by lower walnut setter results due primarily to the historically difficult winter weather we saw in Wyoming this year. In fact, we estimate overall weather impacted volumes during the Q1 We're probably about 3.5 times what we normally expect and of course that impact flow through to our wamstetter gathering and processing assets as well.

Speaker 3

Shifting now to our core business performance, our transmission and Gulf of Mexico business improved $31,000,000 or 4%, due primarily from a partial contribution from the Mountain West Pipeline acquisition, which closed on February 14 and a full quarter from the Nortex acquisition. Our Northeast Gallium and Processing business performed very well with a $52,000,000 or 12% increase driven by a $73,000,000 increase in service revenue. This revenue increase was fueled by 7% increase in total volumes in the Northeast 7% volume growth to the overall basin growth of just under 2%. Shifting now to the West, which increased The West was significantly unfavorably impacted by the severe Wyoming weather and January processing economics at our Opal Wyoming processing plant. Overall gas processing margins were $44,000,000 lower this year than last and that was largely a January phenomenon.

Speaker 3

All in, the West was about 3% short of our plan, although the winter weather impact was much worse than we had planned. And then you see the $165,000,000 increase in our gas and NGL marketing business. And at our Analyst Day, we did point to a strong start The year for this business due to the economics that we saw around our year end Sequent transportation and storage position. Ultimately, the $231,000,000 for gas marketing was driven by positive transportation margins across all regions And strong storage margins that benefited from the lower cost or market write down we discussed in the 4th quarter review. So again, a strong start to 2023 with 19% growth in EBITDA, driven by core infrastructure business performance With strength from our marketing business that dramatically overcame weaker than expected results from the upstream joint ventures.

Speaker 3

And with that, I'll turn it back to

Speaker 2

Well, thanks, John. And so now just a few closing remarks before we turn it over to your questions. First, I'll start by reiterating our belief that Williams remains a compelling investment opportunity. We are the most natural gas centric Large scale midstream company around today and the integrated nature of our business from our best in class long haul pipes to our formidable gathering assets and our value driving Sequent platform is unique. Our combination of proven resilience, A 5 year EPS CAGR of 23%, coverage that is now approaching 3 times on our high growth dividend, A strong balance sheet and high visibility to growth is unique amongst the S and P 500 and unique within our sector.

Speaker 2

I'll add that there's a reason we've stuck with our natural gas focused strategy for as long as we have. This strategy allowed us to Produce a 10 year track record of growing adjusted EBITDA through a large number of commodity and economic cycles And it is continuing to deliver significant growth in the current environment. But the signals coming from the market show that it is going to continue to deliver Substantial growth for the long term as well. Natural gas demand continues to build and the recent low prices Surety is exactly what the world would need more of. U.

Speaker 2

S. Natural gas infrastructure is Key to meeting both today's energy demand as well as projected growth of electrification and renewables build out in the future. Natural gas is the solution for the most complex challenge of our time, producing affordable and reliable energy while meeting our climate goals. And the United States is positioned better than any other country on this front. But access to our abundant and low cost natural gas And we're seeing and feeling today the impacts of inadequate infrastructure with consumers bearing the brunt of these actions in the form of high utility bills, Unnecessary blackouts and energy driven inflation.

Speaker 2

The good news is that we have a solution that is readily available, A solution that will support global emission reductions, keep energy costs affordable and grow our nation's competitiveness. Enabling this efficient, unobstructed build out of our nation's energy infrastructure to ensure delivery of natural gas is foundational to the U. S. Leadership on greenhouse gas emission reduction and energy security. And we at Williams will proudly continue our efforts So with that, I'll open it up for your questions.

Operator

We'll pause for just a moment to compile the question and answer roster. Your first question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds from UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning, everyone. John, appreciate the color and the Prepared remarks on being able to hit your guidance with the base business without marketing. That said, marketing clearly showcased a really strong results for the quarter. And while I know The segment is volatile. I was curious if you guys could provide perhaps an updated view on maybe an annualized EBITDA run rate for the marketing segment just given the recent acquisitions of Nortex and Mountain West?

Speaker 3

Thanks. Yes. Thanks, Brian. We certainly have seen that since we bought Sequium back in about 18 months ago or coming up on 2 years ago, Sequium has a great ability to capitalize on natural gas price volatility, but also doing that using a low risk business model. I would say though that we're really not ready to take the $50,000,000 to $70,000,000 long term run rate that we've talked about before up at this point.

Speaker 3

Some of these positions that they utilize are more short term in nature, especially the storage positions. And again, we would emphasize A big reason they've been able to do as well as they have has just been the historically high natural gas price volatility, especially what we saw last year Through the summer months and also in the Q4. So those are a couple of reasons that we would like to Stick with the $50,000,000 to $70,000,000 long term run rate. However, as I mentioned in my commentary, Our current forecast does show that we do not need any additional EBITDA from Sequent this year to make the midpoint of our guidance. And as I also mentioned, the favorable results really did show In the Q1, how Sequent was able to counter the unfavorable results we saw in our gas processing margins And some of the other things that we saw in the upstream and Wamsut are gathering and processing EBITDA.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks. Appreciate all that. Maybe as just a follow-up on the natgas macro, Williams has highlighted that I can continue to Base business growth in a low nat gas environment. So kind of, was wondering if you could perhaps discuss two sides of the coin.

Speaker 4

1, how low nat gas prices are supporting increased demand for transmission projects in that 2025 plus timeframe? And then second, near term, how could load nat gas prices kind of impact some volumetric headwinds on the GMP side of the business over the next call it next 6 to 12 months? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Brian. This is Alan. First of all, I think what we are seeing already, April numbers came out on power generation and power generation was already up about 2 Bcf a day On a previous 27 Bcf at 11 for April of 2022. So we're already seeing some pretty good pools based on price on natural Gas in the power generation space.

Speaker 2

And I think we'll continue if prices stay low like they are, I think we'll continue to see that through the summer on the poolside. So that's a good thing for us just because obviously the capacity demands Will be important for us. I think on the in terms of that impact on the G and P business, I think we're certainly paying close attention to that. Many of our big producers are hedged out pretty well and we're seeing People continuing to produce through that. So don't expect, we're certainly not expecting Growth on average across the space to be clear, but we're pretty fortunate to be In some of the lower cost basins and with producers that have been managing this pretty well, one of the areas that We're really seeing continued growth in the rich gas and some of the condensate areas in the Marcellus and Utica areas.

Speaker 2

And so we're fortunate to be pretty well exposed to that area as well. So I would just say as always, we have such a Wide variety of exposure across so many different basins that whatever the demand pool is on natural gas, Our volumes will reflect that and really excited this quarter to see our Sequent team. It's been a strategy of ours for our Sequium team to go out and provide market and preferentially to our Gathering customers in places like the Marcellus because obviously there's value for our gas moving over the top of other gas In the basin and so certainly our Sequin team has shown their ability in that area and we're excited to see that. So I would just say, I'd say on the macro side, certainly see an oversupply situation. Supply grew almost 6 Bcf in Q1 of 'twenty three versus Q1 of 'twenty two.

Speaker 2

So supply side is certainly continuing to grow a lot faster than demand and that means lower prices. But I do think we will see a Pretty big response from power generation this summer as we're already seeing here as we already saw in April.

Speaker 4

Great. Appreciate all the color. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Toni from JPMorgan, your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Jeremy.

Speaker 5

Just wanted to kind of switch to natural gas and exports LNG, if I could. Just wondering your wellhead to export Strategy at this point. So I have a Sempra HOA and just wondering if you could expand a bit there, I guess, what your vision is for That dynamic and how big could that be over time?

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks, Jeremy. This is Chad Zammeron. We continue to Advance our wellhead water strategy since our Analyst Day update. And I'll start by saying you referenced the Sempra HOA.

Speaker 6

I mean, We think very highly of the Sempra team and have continued to engage with Sempra following the non binding HOA we announced last year. But we've also been evaluating a number of competing opportunities as well. We've been Spending a lot of time with our producer customers as well as with international LNG buyers and we're seeing really positive Strong interest in both producers wanting access to international prices and international LNG buyers wanting access to domestic producers So they can buy LNG from U. S. Supplies at international prices.

Speaker 6

And so we think we provide a unique solution. We haven't finalized the definitive agreement yet, but we continue to build confidence around our ability to add LNG as an extension of our natural gas value chain in a way that will provide for fixed margins for Williams while shifting that International price exposure to producers and LNG buyers. And so I would just say that we continue to prove up the strategy. We feel Really good and feel like we're making great positive strides. And I think we'd expect to finalize a definitive arrangement With Sempra or with an alternative LNG partner sometime here in the near term 2023.

Speaker 5

Got it. That's helpful there. Thanks. And just wanted to kind of shift to REA and the partial in service this winter. Just wondering, how you think about timing there?

Speaker 5

Maybe it's not much of a 23 EBITDA contribution, but any thoughts there? And really also want to see on the Northeast G and P, is that kind of unlock growth there? Or do you think producers might be timing production with when that comes online? And just wondering How much EBITDA uplift could you see in the Northeast G and P associated with REA unlocking incremental capacity there?

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, Jeremy. This is Michael. Yes, I would just first of all want to thank our project execution team for doing a tremendous job Being prepared to start construction on that project. It's a challenging permitting environment, especially in the Northeast right now and the team Designed this project so that it could be permitted and we really got through that process fairly quickly there ultimately And the team was certainly prepared for the tree clearing window that was closing very rapidly post FERC Certificate And really pleased that we got that tree claim done early and we've actually fully mobilized contractors for the pipeline loop installations. So we do expect a partial in service by the Q4 of 2023.

Speaker 7

So there will be a contribution to 2023 EBITDA. We're not predicting the actual in service date of that yet, but it will be before year end. And I think I do think that will translate to some opportunities in the gathering business is well upstream. The producers have been awaiting this additional capacity to be unlocked from the Northeast. And we are certainly talking to those producer customers up there to be anticipating when this project will come online.

Speaker 7

But I do think it will provide additional value in 2024 as well and I think that's really where we're going to see the additional uplift On the gathering business, certainly not only on the Transco side, but really pleased with how it's gone so far and we'll keep you updated as we Rest with the construction through the summer.

Speaker 5

Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Celcido from Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Could you maybe help us unpack the weather impacts that affected the West segment during the quarter, particularly on the volume and cost side And maybe the underlying trajectory of that business through the course of the year?

Speaker 3

Yes. Mark, I'll take that on. Michael can add any color. I think break it down into a couple of different areas. 1, we've talked quite a bit about the impact of the NGL margins which is pretty clear.

Speaker 3

If you look at the analyst package of the appendix to the press release, NGL margins were $44,000,000 lower year over year. So that's a pretty good Go by in terms of the impact there. Almost all of that decrease in NGL margins happened at the Ocal processing plant And almost all of that was related to the historically high shrink costs that we had in January of this year where Natural gas prices were in the $50 a dekatherm range and since then we've seen that come way back down into something much more Like $2.50 As far as the rest of the impacts, if you kind of look at the sum Of what happened in the upstream JV part of the business at Wamsutter plus the Wamsutter gathering and processing Impact to some of those 2 were about $70,000,000 lower than our planned expectations for the Q1. So again between those 2 about a $70,000,000 impact. Yes, we saw I think one of the things we looked at said that we saw probably about 12 Bcf Impacted volumes for the whole Q1 whereas in a normal year that might be a little bit more than 3 Bcf.

Speaker 3

So Just very historic conditions out there and the recovery is ongoing. It's Now we've transitioned to high rivers and muddy roads and but the recovery is happening and volumes are being restored And margins are returning to a more normalized level. So expect quite a bit of improvement there When we get to the Q2 versus what we saw in the Q1.

Speaker 8

Got it. That is very helpful. And in terms of the domestic demand outlook in the medium to longer term, there's obviously a lot of focus on the incremental LNG export capacity expected to come online over the next few years. Also curious to get your take on the domestic industrial demand outlook in the U. S.

Speaker 8

With potential onshore and just given everything going on geopolitically.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for that good question. I think really if you break that down, the areas that We're going to be driven obviously anything that is heavy gas use is Coming home, if we're going to be we are the major exporter and we'll be the growing larger exporter. It means we've got the lowest price Natural gas around the world likely and that will bring industry here like fertilizer business obviously is a big piece that Been picking up pretty significantly from that. A lot of other industries that are having natural gas users will continue to be Domiciled here in the U.

Speaker 2

S. So that I think is fairly certain. I think in terms of how much that is, it will probably be Pretty small in comparison to the LNG growth that we're seeing. And it's pretty impressive right now to look at The amount of NGL growth, I think right now there's about 23 Bcf of new expected on by 2,032 and that's up against the 22 number of about 10.9 Bcf a day. So a lot of growth to come in that space.

Speaker 2

The other area, as I mentioned earlier, obviously, the power generation sector. And for us, that's kind of got 2 facets to it that I think sometimes the market misunderstands for us. First of all, Certainly, when low gas prices are there, we'll see that take out a lot of the baseload coal business that's out there today. Already seeing that here in the shoulder, but we'll certainly see it this summer. But in addition to that, From a Williams perspective, we sell the capacity.

Speaker 2

And so as you see more and more electrification occurring, It's very clear that the utilities are going to be left with really no other alternative than gas fired generation as a backup for that. And we are certainly seeing that in our discussions with our customers and a demand for that incremental capacity that's available that we can uniquely provide into some of those markets. And so that demand for capacity As opposed to volume is a really key thing to note from a Williams perspective because we're not all that concerned about the annual average demand For natural gas, as much as we are the capacity that has to be provided to back up renewables. And as you Study electrification, that is really going to fall for the benefit of natural gas fire generation and Particularly to the infrastructure, both on the transmission and the storage side that can support that. And obviously, we continue with our Mountain West acquisition And with our expansions on the Transco system, our conversion of Washington storage and our purchase of Nortek's Storage last year, we are all about being in a position to serve that business and serve it well.

Speaker 8

Got it. That is very helpful. Appreciate the time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning. Just to maybe follow-up on sequent. Do you think at this point sequent is Basically like a hedge against worsening gas prices. In other words, do you think Sequent could generate higher results if gas prices go lower And therefore kind of offset some of the exposure you have to gas price on the E and

Speaker 7

P and G and P side?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, I would just say where there is volatility, that's where Sequium is going to perform well and where there is basis dislocation, That's where they're going to perform, but effectively what we're really monetizing with Sequent is we're monetizing storage. So price movement from one period from a time based period obviously drives value for us as well as dislocation and basis Differentials when we own the transportation between those locations, that's really what drives value for Sequent. And I would say that it's pretty hard to forecast a period where we don't see quite a bit of volatility in price As we've got a big growing demand for LNG looming on the horizon, and people not being We're certainly not going to be available and certainly the value of storage to serve those loads and to serve Quick swing loads for renewables is definitely on the horizon and I think will continue to cause volatility Both from a time spread and both from a basis spread perspective. And so we're pretty excited about the way that Sequent will perform in that.

Speaker 2

But what it wouldn't protect from is if we were sitting here with a completely flat curve At low prices far out in the future, that's the environment that it wouldn't provide us any protection and to be clear. But as long as we've got basis spread and we've got time spread and value there, that's where the Sequent team is going to perform well.

Speaker 9

Got it. And I was just wondering if you could comment on your JV with Geo Southern and the outlook for production there with gas prices at these levels, I guess, the futures curve is still pretty good. So is there still an intent to increase production to, I think it was a goal of 800,000,000 cubic feet per day by 2025 or could the pace kind of moderate a bit until prices recover?

Speaker 6

Thanks. This is Chad. As of right now, that team is continuing to perform exceptionally well. We've got great Partnership with Geo Southern. And right now they are holding production based on the available midstream capacity.

Speaker 6

And As Alan mentioned, as you noted, the forward curve is constructive. So they intend to kind of keep that development pace going. And we're looking at kind of the gas macro coming into 2024 late 2024, early 2025 and seeing demand pick up. So I think Yes, there's a desire to want to be ready to make sure the volumes are there as the market continues to Balance towards more demand. And so our expectation is that they'll continue to keep pace with the midstream capacity.

Speaker 6

They work very closely again, the Sequent story, I mean, we're working really hard to make sure they find good markets. And so we think Also with the Louisiana Energy Gateway project and our ability to get the Geo Southern volumes connected to a really good market that they'll continue that growth that we've laid out.

Speaker 1

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Moreen from Mizuho. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning, everyone. Can I ask a quick question on the share repurchases for the quarter? John, it looks like you beat the Average price for the quarter quite nicely in the buybacks. Should we think about this still as pretty opportunistic? And then in the $75,000,000,000 figure, is That about your bogey for what you think you can handle quarter in quarter out at

Speaker 10

this point? Thanks for the

Speaker 3

question, Gabe. Obviously, financial Performance continues to be really strong for the company and the balance sheet is in great shape. Regarding the buybacks, really no change to the returns based approach That we're taking on the share repurchases very similar to what we discussed at Analyst Day. We're really looking at all of our investment opportunities that we have in the company and Seeing that our lowest expected returns on capital investment in the business are really associated with our regulated rate based investments principally through our emissions reduction program Which we've talked about being at that 11% to 12% return range. Obviously, this year since the beginning of the year, we've seen a pretty sharp decline in our valuation As natural gas prices dropped and we saw our dividend yield expand to 6% even while we continue to have A lot of confidence in our long term 5% to 7% growth rate.

Speaker 3

So that looks like a pretty attractive investment relative to all of our options. So we took action to utilize some of that financial flexibility for share repurchase. And I think going forward, it will be Similar approach. We'll just monitor conditions and weigh that investment opportunity up against the other investment opportunities that we have.

Speaker 2

Yes, Gabe, this is Alan. Only thing I would add to that is we are not capped at $75,000,000 kind of number In that you referenced there. So that just happened to be how much we could buy and the price targets that we had set based on Our dividend yield and our expected growth up against our rate base returns as we mentioned.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thanks, Alan. Thanks, John. And maybe I could just ask a 2 parter on growth projects. One is on the Mountain West I think you alluded to, to the extent you can describe maybe some of those that are coming to fruition.

Speaker 8

And then second is low gas prices that all impacting discussions with potential leg customers on that expansion or new project?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. First of all, I'd say on Regional Energy Access, obviously, there's a big spread between The eastern end of the Mountain West system and the OPAL basis and Obviously, that drives need for any kind of expansion that can be built there and that has certainly shown up in as we've gone out to the market Testing for support on that. So we're really excited about that and more to come in pretty short order on that particular front. In addition to that though, there's things like in the Uinta, particularly in the Waxy area over there, A lot of that area is kind of getting capped right now based on lack of gas takeaway capacity out of the area. And so some opportunities on that front and then as well some pretty significant Conversions from coal to gas on some of the big Western coal plants out there.

Speaker 2

And so we'll be we're Extremely well positioned to capture those expansions as well. So, I would say we were pretty conservative in our Approach that acquisition and really thrilled with the work that that team has been doing in terms of identifying opportunities. And I think William's strategy that we bring to those efforts will maximize the value of those opportunities in and around our assets out there. So That's what I have to offer on that. And Mike, why don't you take the Louisiana Energy Gateway question?

Speaker 7

Yes. The Lake project in regard to the opportunity there, I think we still see an opportunity to have that project Online later this fall, we're in the permitting process for the project today and I don't see any obstacles to being able to achieve in service As we have expected to come online in the 2024 timeframe. Right away acquisitions occurring there as well and we're seeing a lot of expectations there with our producer customers who bring that online and those are take or pay type contracts So very comfortable with where we're sitting today on that project.

Speaker 8

Thanks everyone.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann from Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, this is Jake Nivasch on for Neil. Thanks for the question. Just a question on your GMP fee based contracts. Given where commodity prices are today, just wanted to get a sense of what those contracts are looking like. Have the contracts hit a fee floor?

Speaker 11

And if so, any way to quantify that? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So was that on our gathering contracts? Yes.

Speaker 12

I'm sorry, yes, on GMP. Yes, correct.

Speaker 7

Yes. So we have a number of contracts that do have exposure to Natural gas pricing, we talked about those in the past where some of those have direct NYMEX exposure like in the Barnett, Some like in Lorbonte Midstream have a floor underneath those. And then we have some of the Haynesville also that have exposure as natural gas prices ratchet up where we have We haven't publicly stated what they are, but as natural gas prices do escalate, we have an opportunity to increase our fees on those gathering rates. So I would say for the most part, we're very comfortable with where we stand in regard to our guidance this year and the expectation for what Those triggers are in regard to our gathering rates. And I'll just also remind you that we do have a lot of fee escalation in those based on inflation indices.

Speaker 7

And so many of those have kicked in over the last several years as well. And our team has done a really good job controlling our costs. And we feel really good about where those escalators are In relation to our cost escalation and being able to cover those any cost increases that we see and a lot of those cost increases that we're seeing are In power generation for example and a lot of those are pass throughs to our customers as well. So we don't have exposure to that. But all in all, We're very comfortable with where our TMP rates are today in regard to the low natural gas prices.

Speaker 2

And I would just add to that, many of the structures for these Expansions that we're doing, you heard me mention several expansions in our in my prepared remarks and Those expansions tend to be backed by either MDCs, which are pretty simple obviously, Orders are backed by rate increases on the base volumes and therefore we're not all that exposed to the volume increases as much In terms of recovering the capital for our expansion, so the majority of those contracts are set up that way for the expansions that I referenced.

Speaker 11

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes

Speaker 3

from the line of Brandon

Operator

Joe from Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. This is Tristan with Scotiabank. Can you hear me okay?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks. Thanks, Chris.

Speaker 12

I appreciate it. I appreciate your comments, Alan, on Gulf of Mexico and bringing Taggart online. But maybe kind of curious, Just a general update on the progress of sort of the big five coming online in 2024, Just general progress and an update there would be great.

Speaker 1

Sure. Mike, do you want to take that?

Speaker 7

Yes. Sure. I'll take that. No real change from what you've seen in our published materials regarding our projects. We've made really good progress on the Whale project in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

Speaker 7

We We have the offshore pipeline that was installed last fall and we just recently installed the deck modifications on the platform that Bring the gas and oil to shore there and that was just done last week. So that work is progressing with an outage there as we speak. And all in all, feel very good about that work. The Markham processing plant modifications are underway as well. So we'll be well in front of when the producers are Expected to come online in 2024 for that project.

Speaker 7

The Shenandoah project in our discovery systems also going very well. A lot of the offshore work by the producers is underway and our onshore work has been fully permitted and that we're working under those construction projects And so nothing's changed on the timing of those. We hope that producers will accelerate those and we'll be ready for that if they choose to do so. It's really up to their schedules right now as to when they bring those online. But like for the whale project, they wanted us done well In advance of their offshore activities and so we are prepared to go early if they choose to do so and that's where we stand today on those.

Speaker 7

Really good progress on the non CapEx tieback and the opportunities that we've had out there also.

Speaker 2

And we also, Chris, as well on the Chevron Ballymore project, we finalized contracts with the producers on Valleymore this quarter as well. Of course, that doesn't require any capital on our part, but a significant accomplishment to finalize That deal, particularly with the other producer, working interest producer on that platform. So things Have gone, as Michael said, things have gone very well out there and great to have the primary risk for us was that offshore installation on well And the majority of that risk has been put behind us. So really great work by the team. It's nice and the team is doing such a great job that you don't hear anything mentioned by it because things have been going so smoothly on that front.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks, Alan. And then maybe just On leg, appreciate the updates there, but maybe curious on how things are progressing on the carbon side of that project. Do we need to be in sort of a primacy in Class 6 world for that component of leg To go forward or maybe just an update on what you're seeing on that?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. Thanks. This is

Speaker 6

Chad again. That's also progressing well Alongside the gathering project and what we see today is an interest in the Ability to move CO2 along that pipe and then remove the CO2 and sequester it. It is not dependent upon primacy. I mean we are Paired to work. Likely with 3rd parties for the sequestration, but the timing of the project we think Can work both based on kind of the existing permitting process, but also I think primacy just makes things that much more Efficient in Louisiana.

Speaker 6

I think there's been some recent progress in Louisiana that looks like primacy is likely to be a near term. But we don't think the project is dependent upon achieving that. And right now, the project is on track and looking positive.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks, Chad. Appreciate it, guys. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis from Citi. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Thanks, operator. Good morning, team. First question going upstream actually,

Speaker 3

Sounds like

Speaker 10

not an urgent need to modify those assets, of course, but as I recall, you all came pretty close to an asset sale in the last year. So just curious, where does that process Right now, and is that forward curve strong enough to maybe incent some buyers to come in here at attractive levels for you?

Speaker 2

Yes, Spiro, I would just say, obviously, we haven't kept that any secret that we're Interested in monetizing those. I'd say certainly Haynesville because it's proven up its capabilities Here in short order with great work by the Geo Southern team there on developing that acreage so fast. But really the way that deal is structured, our capital has been required and fallen off Dramatically on that as that reversion continues out there on those interests. And I would just say that the we've been pretty clear with the market that if somebody Wants to put an attractive offer on the table. We're very interested in those discussions and we certainly have been and will continue to entertain Offers on that.

Speaker 2

But we're not in a path to sell mode and so we're not going to So at the bottom of the market. On the Wamsutter piece, obviously, We've got a lot more development out there to prove up to really, I think, get the volumes to where we need that be For the benefit of our midstream business, so I'd still say there's still some execution to be done On the Wamsutter development out there and again the right party came along that could convince us If they could develop that aggressively, then that'd be great. But I think there's probably better value right now in improving up The opportunity out there and getting the volumes up for the benefit of all of our downstream business. If you realize, if you think about how much margin We make off the Wamsutter area. That is clearly our highest unit margin area for us because not only do we obviously have Production, but we also have the condensate gathering, we have the gas gathering, we have the gas processing, we have the NGL takeaway.

Speaker 2

We're assuming that likely have the gas takeaway via the Mountain West acquisition. So a lot of coupons to clip off of the production out there That makes that a very valuable area for us to get developed. We want to make sure that that occurs. So anyway, that's the way we're thinking about it. For sale signs out, I would say, but we're not going to sell at the bottom of the market.

Speaker 10

Got it. That's helpful color. Thanks for that, Alan. Second one, just wanted to come back to the guidance quickly for a second. I think back at the Investor Day, you've mentioned that the guide Compensated producer slowdown just given where you saw the natural gas price at the time and looks like to some degree that's been proven out.

Speaker 10

We've seen a handful of announcements now on some Slowing of activity, I guess I'm just curious compared to what you were thinking in February, how is that kind of track to your expectations?

Speaker 3

I can take that Spiro and others can chime in. But I think as we went into Analyst Day Establishing our guidance, we went in with a pretty sober outlook for the year and embedded some pretty conservative estimates for what we We'll be happy with our producer customers. Since then, we've ran another bottoms up forecast and continue to feel good about the guidance.

Speaker 10

Perfect. Helpful color, guys. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sunil Sabal from Seaport Global. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Yes, hi. Good morning, everybody. So my first question was related to some recent comments from the administration, especially with regard to gas infrastructure. I was just curious, is that something that you also picked up on based on your discussions with the administration? And then is there a specific opportunity for Williams to capitalize on that note?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, great point and we were thrilled to see Secretary Granholm's letter in Board of Mountain Valley Pipeline and recognizing the critical role that natural gas plays and particularly The more we want to electrify and the faster we go at electrification, the more dependent we're going to be on natural gas to Help support that. And so I was really pleased to see Secretary Granholm's acknowledgment of that. I would I'll tell you, we've certainly been close to that. But the credit, I think, there Is due to a few things.

Speaker 2

1, the utility industry has become pretty clear in this last Quarter that to try to deliver on electrification and the Inflation Reduction Act goals That we are going to have to have more natural gas capacity to help support that and help support backup Patience, so the utility industry and a lot of the utility leadership, Lynn Goode, as I think a prime example From Duke have been pretty clear about the importance of natural gas and I think their messages have hit the mark with the administration On that front, but as well, I would tell you that folks like Senator Manchin, who certainly understands energy very well, Has been very vocal about the need for getting the permitting reform done as well. And so there are a lot of people that are starting Move beyond what is just politically correct and what is popular to say and getting down to the cold hard facts of physics and And realizing that we're going to have to have natural gas to be able to carry out our goals around emission reduction and support Aggressive electrification of our grid. So we're really thrilled to see that. I'm glad you picked up on that as well.

Speaker 2

And I think that bodes very well for the natural gas industry here domestically and abroad.

Speaker 13

Got it. And then on the LNG marketing strategy, so kind of stay tuned to updates coming up on that. But I was just curious, is that marketing strategy more driven by supply push Currently or is it more of a demand pull in the international markets?

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks. This is Chad. I'd say it's Paul, one of the things that we offer that's unique today if an international LNG buyer wants to buy U. S. LNG and you think about we are the Low cost, most reliable producer of natural gas in the world.

Speaker 6

And there is a great interest in sourcing gas supplies in the United States, but The international buyer has to primarily buy LNG at domestic Henry Hub prices, index prices. And We have producers that we're connected to that are interested in selling a portion of their production into international markets and gain exposure to international prices. What we are offering is the ability for international LNG buyers to buy U. S. Supplied natural gas, but to be able to buy that At an international price because our producers are interested in gaining access to international prices.

Speaker 6

So we can be a unique Bridge between domestic producers and international buyers for a product that really isn't available broadly today Because the international buyer has to buy U. S. Gas at a Henry Hub index. And so that's why we're seeing I think really strong interest from both Domestic producers that do want to gain exposure to additional markets and additional price opportunities, but also international buyers that would like to source U. S.

Speaker 6

Supplies, but do so in a more native price index that they can buy again. So it's really a combination of both.

Speaker 7

Yes. If I could add to that, this is Michael. The opportunities that we're looking at also involve some pretty significant FERC regulated fee based Pipeline opportunities for the infrastructure to be built there well beyond what we're thinking about with the leg project. So we are certainly looking at the opportunities build FERC regulated transmission projects associated with this wellhead water strategy.

Speaker 13

Got it. And just one clarification on that. I think in the past, duration of contracts between the international contracts that the international parties We're looking for and what the domestic parties were looking for, there was a bit of a mismatch in that. Based on the recent discussions, do you think that those 2 are kind of closer to where they were say a few months back?

Speaker 6

Yes, I'd say that we're not going to take large open mismatch positions. There may be some Modest mismatch across a portfolio of LNG transactions, but our goal is going to be to not have a lot of speculative open positions. Again, kind of offer a unique Product to the market and our goal will be to for the most part de risk the term of those commitments. And if we do take any lesser term on a commitment, make sure that the margin that we're capturing

Speaker 2

is more than adequate to support that. But for the most

Speaker 6

part, we're targeting Significant coverage and matching of the terms across the portfolio.

Speaker 13

Got it. Thanks, Bhakalav.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury from Bernstein. Your line is open.

Speaker 14

Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in. I just have one. You have several Mid Atlantic demand pull projects, Commonwealth Energy Connector, Southside Reliability Enhancement, Carolina Market Link. Do these also create more capacity south of Transco 165 Then exist today as MVP starts up or are those kind of low CapEx high return opportunities that you've referenced in the past like completely like they're not even on the board yet?

Speaker 7

Yes, Jean Ann. This is Michael. I would say those are more of the latter right now. These are fairly low CapEx compression with Some small looping opportunities with really healthy returns on those projects. Anything that would be associated with NBP completion would be a much more Substantial capital intensive project opportunity that we're certainly looking at with customers.

Speaker 7

At this time, we haven't announced anything in that regard. But there definitely are opportunities that MVP is successful and Take away from Transco will ultimately be built.

Operator

Yes. Jan,

Speaker 2

it is Alan. I would just add, I think that Michael hit that Nailed on the head, but we do have a decision to make around MVP because obviously MVP It is critical and that gap that would come in there is going to be searching for new market. And we've got decisions to make on how to really optimize that southbound capacity If MVP gets built, if it doesn't get built, then we've got some decisions to make around expanding southbound capacity From the Pennsylvania area on Transco along the mainline And in terms of brownfield expansion along the mainline as well. So that's really what we're kind of waiting to see is How big those projects might be and it's more dependent on whether or not MVP gets built. Certainly, We think it should get finished, but it's just getting harder and harder to predict that given the time that's passed.

Speaker 2

So anyway, we're standing ready with alternatives there, but MVP, I think, is the right sensible solution for our nation. And hopefully, we see that again, please.

Speaker 14

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Alan Armstrong, President and Chief Executive Officer, I turn the call back over to you.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you. Well, we're really as a team, I tell you, We're really excited to deliver the quarter that we just delivered, particularly within commodity cycle that we're in and Really excited about how we're set up for the future and some of the great accomplishments that teams delivered This quarter as well. So we look forward to rewarding our shareholders with more growth in the future and are very well positioned for that. So

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Earnings Conference Call
Williams Companies Q1 2023
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