Global Blue Group Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
June 27, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Adjusted EBITDA jumped to €78 million in FY 2022/23 from a loss of €10 million the prior year, reaching 46% of pre-COVID levels.
  • Q4 revenues showed strong momentum, with in-store sales at 116% and Group revenue at 105% of Q4 2019/20, and Q4 adjusted EBITDA of €21.3 million (82% of 2019/20).
  • The balance sheet strengthened with €240 million in cash, net debt cut by €128 million to €550 million, and a net leverage ratio of 2×, comfortably within covenants.
  • Mainland China recovery is at ~50% and is expected to drive further growth, with each 1% of additional Chinese recovery adding ~€1 million EBITDA and full recovery potentially pushing group EBITDA above €200 million.
  • Despite improvements, adjusted net income remains negative at –€8.1 million, and inflation plus higher finance costs increased expenses by over €20 million.
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Earnings Conference Call
Global Blue Group Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 2 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. I am Jacques Sten, the CEO of Global Blue, and I will present today the fiscal year result 2022, 'twenty three with Roxanne Dufour, CFO of Global Blue. Before I leave the floor to Roxane, let me first give you the key highlights of this results for 2022, 2023. 1st, happy to report significant improvement of the adjusted EBITDA at €78,000,000 versus minus €10,000,000 last year, which represents 46% of 20 nineteen-twenty 20 fiscal year. 2nd, we have a healthy balance sheet with a strong position of cash of €240,000,000 at the end of March 2023.

Operator

3rd, we have noticed an acceleration of the recovery in April May 2023, More in detail in my presentation, but two figures which are important in Continental Europe, recovery has now reached 115% versus 109% in the last quarter of our fiscal year, so from January to March. And in APAC, the recovery has now reached 104% in April May versus 87% in Q4 of our fiscal year 2022, 2023. Beside the current level of recovery that I've just exposed, Global Blue will further benefit from Mainland China reopening, which is only started. And from that point of view, I will come back on the simulation that we have made, which if we basically take the extrapolation on 12 months over Q4 and we simulate 125% recovery of Chinese, then the group will reach over €200,000,000 I will come back on that. Last but not least, beside this current recovery and the expected ones, thanks to the Chinese Global Blue, should benefit from strong long term driver.

Operator

I will come back on that and is well hedged again the risk of inflation and Europe recession. With that in mind, I now leave the floor to Roxanne.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jacques. I am Roxanne Dufault, the CFO of Global Blue, and I will take you through the group's financial performance for the quarter 4 and the full year ended on the 31st March, 2023. Again, a reminder that our financial year runs from April to March, and this is our Q4 full year results announcement. And all the reconciliation to the nearest IFRS metrics are included into the appendix. So let's move now to slide 8 for the adjusted P and L related to our Q4.

Speaker 1

We are pleased to report a significant improvement across all the key metrics. TFS and ABPS reported sales in store increased by €2,900,000,000 and is now at 116% of Q4 'nineteen-twenty. Group revenue is now at 105 percent of Q4 'nineteen 'twenty. And turning to adjusted EBITDA, we have delivered a significant improvement to €21,300,000 which is at 82% versus Q4 in 'nineteen, 'twenty versus in Q3, 56%, 42% in Q2 and 17% in Q1. So a significant improvement quarter on quarter during the year.

Speaker 1

Finally, we recorded an adjusted net income for the group of negative €1,000,000 Again, a significant improvement compared to last year, where we were at negative €16,400,000 Now let's turn to slide 9. Here, we are showing the revenue profile over the last 8 quarters, and we can see a strong improvement quarter on quarter. Starting with TFS, there has been a strong quarterly improvement for 47% recovery in Q1 to 88% in Q4 versus the same period in 'nineteen-'twenty. The increase in revenue primarily reflects the air traffic recovery and the increase in average spend of international shoppers. Turning now to ABPS.

Speaker 1

We can also see here a strong improvement with revenue increasing from 79% recovery in Q1 to 151% in Q4 versus the same period in 'nineteen-twenty. Finally, RTS. RTS delivered a significant increase in revenue versus the same period last year, reflecting a strong organic growth from Zig Zag and Yokuda and the €1,200,000 scope effect from Ship Up. As a reminder, RTS is a combination of 3 companies: Zig Zag acquired in March 2021, Yokuda consolidating in September 2021 and the recent acquisition of Shipup in November 2022. Turning now to Slide 10, where we demonstrate how issued ceased recovery translate to revenue recovery.

Speaker 1

This is a bridge detailing a number of items to consider between the issued SEIS and the reported revenue. Here, we are showing the comparison versus Q4 'nineteen 'twenty and Q4 'eighteen 'nineteen. I will comment on Q4 'eighteentwenty 19, which is equal to the Q1 of the calendar year 2019, as Jacques will refer to those numbers later in the presentation. We are at 111 percent recovery for issued sales in store in AVPS and TFS. The issued SIS is presented on a like for like basis, meaning at constant parameters.

Speaker 1

Then we take into account the scope effect of the UK, abolishing the tax free shopping scheme in January 2021. As a reminder, prior to the abolition of the scheme, the UK accounted around 14% of group TFS reported, which is no longer the case here. The impact from the UK abolishment is 12 points and there is a further impact 7 points related to FX translation and one point impact related to the discontinuation of our TFS business in Russia, which gave us at the end 91% recovery in issued SIS reported in TFS and ABPS, respectively 83% for TFS, 127% for AVPS. Then we have the refund ratio. Once the transaction is issued, the traveler has to validate the tax reform and get the refund.

Speaker 1

This is at this point in time the transaction is part of the reported SIS, which triggers the revenue. Today, the actual refund ratio is slightly lower than Q4 'eighteen 'nineteen and is mainly due to nationality mix effect. Then there are transactions completed off period. This is where transactions are issued in a quarter and validated, refunded in the following quarters. This gets us to 90% recovery for completed SIS in TFS and ABPS.

Speaker 1

Then we have some leakage from completed reported SIS to reported revenue. 1st, for TFS, we have a merchant mix effect, where there has been an increased level of business with larger merchants, luxury merchants, who get a higher rate of commission. We then have an increase in the average spend, which means more VAT refunded and therefore a lower level of commission for Global Blue. 2nd, we have the AVPS mix effect, where the AVPS business with a lower margin is growing faster than TFS. This gives us 80% of reported revenue recovery for AVPS and TFS.

Speaker 1

Finally, we have the contribution from ATS business, which give us at the end 87% revenue recovery for the quarter 4 for the group. Turning now to Slide 12 for detailing the full year financial year performance. As with Q4, we have seen a significant improvement across all the key metrics for the full year. Group revenue is now at 74% of 'nineteen-twenty levels. This increase in revenue reflects the air traffic recovery and the increase in the average spend of international shoppers.

Speaker 1

Turning to adjusted EBITDA, again, a significant improvement to €78,000,000 which is 46 percent of 'nineteen-twenty level. The improvement is due to significant increase in revenue and the continued strong focus on the cost base. Finally, we recorded a negative adjusted net income for the group of €8,100,000 a significant improvement versus last year, where we were at negative €69,500,000 Turning now to Slide 13 for an overview of the adjusted operating expenses. The variable costs reduced by 27% versus a revenue decreasing of 31% in ABPS and CFS, so in line. Besides the volume driven cost reduction, there has been a reduction of 18% to €28,400,000 of adjusted fixed operating expenses as a result of the cost savings program implemented in 2021.

Speaker 1

This is despite €4,300,000 of listing costs, which we didn't have in 'nineteen-twenty. Then we have the inflation, which has negatively impacted the fixed costs by more than €10,000,000 which is around 7%. And finally, we show the scope effect of RTS for a total of €26,800,000 So excluding listing costs, inflation and the scope effect of RTS, fixed costs have reduced by around €33,000,000 in line with our original guidance of €35,000,000 Turning now to slide 14 for a summary of other costs. D and A decreased to €36,700,000 as a result of the reduced level of CapEx during the past 2 years. Then net finance costs.

Speaker 1

Cost increased by €12,000,000 to €36,600,000 for a number of reasons. First, the increase of the arrebor rate related to the senior debt triggered an annual impact of almost €7,000,000 2nd, the interest cost for €1,700,000 related to the drawdown of the supplemental shareholder facility in April 'twenty 2 3rd, a €2,000,000 cost related to the unhedged open position in the balance sheet. And finally, €1,200,000 foreign exchange losses related to the certain United Equity transactions denominated in USD, while Global Group report in Europe. Now let's move to slide 15 for an analysis of the cash flow. After an adjusted EBITDA of €78,000,000 the level of CapEx was around €34,000,000 in financial year 'twenty two, 'twenty three and is essentially related to technology development.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, Global Blue is a low capital intensive business. It's very pleasing to report a positive adjusted EBITDA less CapEx of €44,000,000 while we continue to invest in strategic projects. Turning now to working capital. Our volume increase being correlated with the air travel recovery that leads to an increase in our working capital needs as traveler get the refund upfront and about a month later, we collect the VAT from the merchant or the authorities. So our working capital increase as business volume increase and is highest during the summer season, which is the peak season since passenger volume tend to increase during the summer holidays.

Speaker 1

And as a reminder, our net working capital outflow at the end of September was €87,000,000 this year. Similarly, our working capital decreased rapidly just after the summer season, so during the, what we call the low season, during the winter, and it released the working capital that has been built during the summer. And here, there is a decrease of about €49,000,000 versus the summertime, resulting at the end of the year of an outflow of almost €40,000,000 for financial year 'twenty two-twenty three. Finally, with the proceeds from the issue of share capital from Sartorius and Knighthead equity investments, our net financial debt decreased by €127,500,000 which I will cover on the next slide. As of 31st March, 2023, our net financial debt amounted to €550,000,000 Both our senior debt and revolving credit facility for a total of €729,000,000 have a maturity date of 28 August 2025.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, the first testing for the financial covenant was on 31st March, 2023 and the total net leverage must be lower than 4.75 times. We were in compliance with this testing with the total net leverage at the end at 2 times. So you can see we have significantly strengthened our balance sheet. And now we have almost €240,000,000 of cash and cash equivalents and have reduced debt by €128,000,000 as a result of the Cetiras Knight's Head equity investment and our continued strong focus on the working capital. Turning now to Slide 17 for the key takeaways.

Speaker 1

To conclude, first, we are pleased to report a significant increase in revenue of 2 57% this year versus last year, with TFS and AVPS revenue at 74% of 'nineteen-twenty 11. 2nd, thanks to the strong revenue growth and strict management of the cost base, we are pleased to report a strong improvement in adjusted EBITDA to €78,000,000 this year from negative last year at €9,900,000 Now the EBITDA is at 46% versus 'nineteen-twenty. 3rd, our saving program implemented in 2021 continued to deliver and our fixed adjusted operating expenses, excluding the scope effect of RTS and inflation, have reduced by 18% versus 'nineteen-twenty. Finally, we have a strong cash position with around €240,000,000 of cash and cash equivalent as a result of the surplus investment and our continued focus on the working capital. So this concludes the financial sections.

Speaker 1

I will now hand over to Jacques to present the latest tax free shopping trends and the long term growth driver for Global Group.

Operator

Thank you, Roxanne. So letter strength, so as mentioned in my introduction, you see that April May have shown an acceleration versus quarter 4. So namely, on like for like basis, we have reached 112% of the recovery, which shown 11 points of increase versus Q4. And if we go into the detail, it's basically a 6 point increase in Europe and 17 point increase in APAC. I will come back to that in a minute.

Operator

If we take into account, as mentioned by Roxanne, the impact of the abolishment of tax free shopping in the UK and the same parameter of merchant, we are almost reaching in April and May 100 percent of 20 19 2020 at 99%, which show there also an improvement of 11 point versus Q4, which was at 88 percent. So if we go into the detail and we start by Continental Europe as a destination, you can see that April May had shown 115% level of recovery with May being very strong at 121%, in particular on the back of a good season of post Ramadan in Continental Europe. If you look to the right part of the chart, you see that as we have seen in the last few quarters, the tax free spend of 115% level of recovery is boosted by an increase of average spend of 25%, whereas the level of recovery of the international shoppers is now at 92% in these two months. If we look now in the detail of the nationality in terms of origin market, we continue to see a very strong performance of the American. In May April, the average was 260% level of recovery versus 2019, which basically is in line with the Q4 like we have seen for the GCC.

Operator

So more than 200%, slightly affected by Zohramadon, which was in April, but totally they are also in line with the average of the year. Obviously, beside that, those two nationality, I think, what is important to look in this chart is that the recovery of all nationality, excluding China Mainland China and Russia is now at the level of 153%, where and I will come back to that in a second, we see Mainland China continuing the gradual progression now at 45% in April May versus 31% in Q4. Russia being still at 20% and with no light of any further recovery. Coming back to the Chinese, you can see that April May have been consistent around 45%. And in terms of main destination for Chinese in Europe, you can see that it was lead by France and Switzerland, which are now above 50%.

Operator

If we turn to APAC as a destination, there also we have seen a month of May, which has been stronger than the month of April for 110% for an average of 104%. And there also, we have seen that this performance is boosted by the increase of spend, which is more or less equivalent in Europe, slightly higher, 29%, with an international shopper recovery, which is now in APAC for April May at 81%. Is there also we go to the detail per nationality? We have seen that all nationality excluding Mainline China are now at the level of 176%, which is an increase of almost 14 points versus the last quarter, with in particular very strong performance from Hong Kong and Taiwan, which is still around 3 60 percent of 2019. But what is more meaningful for APAC is really the continuous improvement of Mainland China.

Operator

They represented 56% of 2019 total SIS, so very strong contribution. And you can see that the increase has been strong, 18 points during the months of April May versus Q4, and we are now reaching 52% with 60% in particular in the months of May. You see that in the detail. So you see the 60% for May versus 44% for April for Chinese going into APAC as a destination. And if you look on the right, in particular, you see the very strong performance of South Korea and Singapore, South Korea being already above 2019.

Operator

Japan is still, I would say, lagging the recovery. But clearly, we'll be reopening in the month of May of the full border, with the flight now being, it's really I wouldn't say back to normal in terms of capacity, but at least a number of airports being enlarged, we can expect an improvement of the Japan performance in the next coming months. So in summary, and this slide show you the performance both for Europe and in APAC, with and without China and Russia, you see that for Europe and for APAC, we are now well above 150% if we exclude Mainland China and Russia. And we have seen a continuous improvement in the last months in terms of recovery. And starting in January with the reopening of China, we are seeing now that China is also recovering still at a low base because we had 39% for Mainland China and Russia and Europe and 52% in APAC, but it's gradual and it's progressive.

Operator

Let me give you more colors on, in particular, the Chinese, which clearly is the main driver for 'twenty three, 'twenty four in terms of further acceleration of recovery. And there clearly, there's a couple of good news that we are noticing. First, the willingness of Chinese to travel and shop abroad is important. You see on the chart of Page 29 that it has improved in the last few months. And in May, we are not the willingness is now at 83%, which show really an important potential uplift of the business, especially during the summer, which is really where the Chinese intend to first travel back abroad, in particular in APAC, but also in Europe.

Operator

The second good news in terms of Chinese is that like many other nationality, there had been a lot of saving during the COVID time. And for Chinese, you may remember that it was 3 years. We are talking about more than €2,100,000,000,000 which has been saved during this period, which are ready to be spent on a lot of things. And in particular, on luxury goods, because during those 3 years, in average, Chinese have reduced their spending in luxury goods of around €30,000,000,000 to €35,000,000,000 which means that on top of an annual spending of around €100,000,000,000 you have another kind of €100,000,000,000 of saving, which are ready to be spent. So we have really 2 good news, which is 1, they are willing to travel and to shop again, but also they have a purchasing power, which is much more important than pre COVID.

Operator

And we are seeing that already in terms of spend because we see average spends which are higher for Chinese compared to 2019. But it will be a gradual ramp up. Why? Because there's some constraints to the travel. 1st, in terms of Visa and Passport, not all the Visa Center in China, for Europe in particular, are back to normal.

Operator

We are still around 50% to 60% of the capacity pre COVID. We see that there's a time lag to get those visa, which is around between month 3 months depending the country. So if simply you want to travel during October, you need to do it now if you want to get your visa on time. And obviously, which is the object of this slide, we are also still seeing some air capacity constraints for the month of May. The recovery was only 41% to go in Europe for Chinese and 38% to go in APAC.

Operator

Percent to 55%, so namely 54% in Europe and 50% in APAC and to be able to reach for the autumn something around 75%. So by definition, Global Blue will benefit from that. This chart, Page 32, try to explain what is the level of benefit for Global Blue of China. If I want to be very simple and I will go back to more detail after. Every time that the recovery of Chinese increased by 1%, We have a positive impact on our EBITDA, which is slightly lower than €1,000,000 You may remember that pre COVID, Chinese represented 40% of our sales in store.

Operator

So very strong impact, which is shown on this chart. So let me explain to you this chart, which is probably the most important of the presentation. So if I start first on the left side with the dark blue bar, this represent the last 12 months at the end of 2019 level of EBITDA. So concretely, on the calendar year 2019, so without any impact of COVID-nineteen, the Double Group reached an EBITDA of EUR 180 €7,000,000 with a margin EBITDA margin of 42.8%. If we position ourselves in the light blue bar, this represents our fiscal year 2019 2020, so ending in March 2020 already with an impact of 1.5 months of COVID, in particular in APAC.

Operator

And you see that this had cost us at the time €17,000,000 of EBITDA, namely an EBITDA of €170,000,000 And if you go on the top of the chart, you see that this would in March, this will had implied a 93% level of Chinese revenue versus the calendar year 2019. And at the group level revenue, which was 96% of 2019 calendar year. The 3rd column is about our last quarter, so quarter 4 of our fiscal year 2022, 2023, so January 2, March 2023. And we are there simulated based on the quarter 4, what would imply the current the quarterly results, I. E, €129,000,000 of EBITDA.

Operator

So to be compared to the €78,000,000 that we have published, but obviously, this is a combination of the year, but if we take only the quarter 4 and we basically simulate that on the full year, it's €121,000,000. Implied in this €121,000,000 of EBITDA, 20% recovery of Chinese and a total recovery as shown by Roxanne of 79% on quarter 4. So now if we turn on the right side of the page and if we are looking to some simulation of potential recovery of revenue for Chinese, you see that, for example, if you take the 125% mark, which is not unthinkable when you think about the GCC or the U. S. Recovery.

Operator

You see that this would imply revenue recovery at the Group level of 105% and an EBITDA of 2 15 percent with a margin of almost 47%. So in summary, as I was mentioning, China is key for Global Blue EBITDA in 2023, 2024. And just keep in mind, for every point of recovery, it's almost €1,000,000 of further EBITDA. Beside that, obviously, Global Blue has long term driver. So clearly, we are benefiting from the recovery of all nationality in 2022, 'twenty three, but now we are benefiting from China.

Operator

But after the 18, 24 months of Chinese recovery, what shall we expect for Global Blue as a long term driver? So four elements to have in mind. First of all, Global Blue through the tax free business we are in is in a business which basically is growing at double digit at least between the last 10 years before COVID. And the reason why is basically the fact that 80% of our business is about Luxury spend and the Luxury business in itself has a significant growth. So before COVID, it was for domestic conception of Luxury around 5.8%.

Operator

And during the same period, the TFS market has grown of 10%. So why this 4.2% of premium of tax free growth versus the growth of domestic luxury? Namely two reasons. 1, because 70% of the underlying business is coming from emerging markets in tax free shopping. And this market basically benefit from the increase of middle class household number.

Operator

And before COVID, it was 10% increase. So we, as TFS, are benefiting from this increase. Very simply, more middle class in the emerging country leads to more people who wants to travel and also more people who wants to shop abroad. The second reason which explained this premium of tax free shopping versus domestic luxury is because 25% of the consumer base is IT Networks individual. And there also this group of people have grown in the 10 years before COVID at the level of 9%.

Operator

So in summary, tax free shopping is a business which has grown by 10% before COVID because of this emerging market dynamic, but also the INETWORK individual dynamic. The second element to have in mind when you think about the long term growth of Gobel Blue is the expansion of the scheme. To give you an idea, 7 countries has been opened in the 10 years before COVID, and this has contributed to an increase of 2% of our volumes of sales in store from 2010 to 2020. And there's more country, which have VAT scheme, but no VAT refund as you can see on the slide. Only brackets 72 countries today have a VAT refund scheme and among the 181 which have adopted VAT, there is today almost 110 which have not the VAT refund scheme.

Operator

So more country to be opened in the future, which is one of the driver for growth. The third element is about digitalization. And this is true for the payment, but also this is true for our tax free business. Basically, there after 40 years of being present in this industry, we have only a penetration of 52%. So 52% of the potential issued volume is currently refunded.

Operator

So it's a great opportunity. And how to make that possible clearly by digitalizing and making more simple the consumer experience. To give you two figures, when we are looking to digital country like France, like Spain, like Italy, we see that this penetration is 55%, where when we compare it to the penetration in country, which have not been fully digital, it's only 42%. So digitalization is clearly an element, which will contribute to the growth of Global Blue. And if we look back to the 10 years before COVID, this has also contributed to 2% sales in store groups.

Operator

So in summary, 3 very important leverage for tax free and digital also for payment. And last but not least, e commerce dynamic. You know that we have bought recently 3 company, which are in the space of the e commerce. And from that point of view, the expected growth of 10% of the e commerce will benefit to the company that we have bought in that space. Last but not least, obviously, always the question of what about inflation and potential recession risk on Global Blue.

Operator

From that point of view, I would say that in both cases, we are well hedged. If we start by inflation, you can see that the luxury brands have increased at a higher speed in the last 4 years, their price versus the general inflation, something like 7 point. And as our revenue is directly indexed on the spent of luxury goods, we benefit from this increase, which is more important on luxury goods than the general inflation. On the other hand, if we think about a recession in Europe, you can see on the right, we have indicated you what was the performance of Global Blue during the last strong recession in 2,008, 2009. And you see that at that time, we were capable to post a flat result in terms of volume, which was much better than the impact of Luxury, which in the same period have decreased the revenue by 8% and obviously much better than the travel industry, which had a severe drop in their revenue of 16%.

Operator

So in summary, Global Blue is well hedged against the risk of inflation or European recession. So let me conclude with the key takeaway. As mentioned by Roxanne, a significant improvement of the EBITDA at €78,000,000 versus minus €10,000,000 last year, in particular, thanks to a very strong Q4. Cash position, which is strong with €240,000,000 at the end of March 2023, an acceleration of the recovery that we have seen in April May versus Q4, obviously, boosted by a gradual recovery of Chinese, but we are expecting this recovery from Mainline China to further continue during the summer. And if we simulate CHF125 1,000,000 recovery, then the group can reach above CHF200 1,000,000 based on the simulation of the Q4 level of recovery.

Operator

And last but not least, after those 18 to 24 months of benefiting from Chinese recovery, Global Blue is well prepared to have further long term driver, as I've mentioned. And there also, as mentioned, we are well hedged again the risk of inflation and Europe recession. So that's end the presentation of our fiscal year 2022, 2023. And I give you rendezvous for another quarter at the end of August. Thank you very much.

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