Life Time Group Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 25, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Lifetime Group Holdings Second Quarter of 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization from the company. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ken Cooper with Investor Relations for Lifetime.

Speaker 1

Good morning and thank you for joining us for the Lifetime Q2 of 2023 earnings conference call. With me today are Brahma Crotty, Founder, Chairman and CEO and Bob Houghton, CFO. During this call, the company will make forward looking statements, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results differ materially from those forward looking statements made today. There is a comprehensive discussion of risk factors in the company's SEC filings, which You are encouraged to review. Also, the company will discuss certain non GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, net debt to adjusted EBITDA or what we refer to as our net debt leverage ratio and the free cash flow before growth capital expenditures.

Speaker 1

This information along with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the company's earnings release issued this morning, our 8 ks filed with the SEC and on the Investor Relations section of our website. I'm now pleased to turn the call over to Bob Houghton. Bob? Thank you, Ken, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us for our business update.

Speaker 1

I will briefly review our Q2 2023 financial results, which include continued strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. Bahram will then provide his thoughts on the quarter and our strategic initiatives, which are all working to grow our business, improve profitability, increase cash flow and reduce leverage. Our 2nd quarter revenue increased 22 percent to $562,000,000 driven by a 25% increase And we ended June with approximately 790,000 memberships. Total subscriptions, including digital on hold memberships, are now at approximately 832,600. 2nd quarter average center revenue per membership increased to $701 up 10% from $6.39 in the prior year quarter.

Speaker 1

We generated net income for the Q2 of $17,000,000 compared with a net loss of $2,000,000 in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 116% to $136,000,000 Our adjusted EBITDA margin increased by over 10 percentage points to 24.2% versus 13.7% in the Q2 of 2022. Rent as a percentage of revenue was 12% in the Q2 of 2023 and 13% in the prior year quarter. We delivered another quarter of improved cash flow with net cash provided by operating activities of $142,000,000 versus $71,000,000 in the prior year quarter. Year to date, we have generated net cash provided by operating activities of $216,000,000 versus $80,000,000 in the prior year to date period.

Speaker 1

We are incredibly pleased with our performance in the first half of this year. Our strategic initiatives driving growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA at sustainably higher profit margins. We are seeing a significant increase in the number of asset light opportunities to grow our business, and we are rapidly deleveraging our balance sheet. Looking forward, we remain confident in our ability to continue delivering growth in revenue and earnings, while providing the unrivaled athletic country club member experience that is unique to Lifetime. I will now turn the call over to Bahram.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. I am very pleased with our progress in the Q2 towards our main objectives. Our strategic initiatives are all paying off and our team is focused and excited. We are Delivering the best quality programming and experiences to our members and at the same time, We are delivering great operating margins. We are continuing to see more asset light opportunities to grow the company, and we're securing these opportunities.

Speaker 2

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA is dropping at a very fast pace, And it has decreased to 4.2x at the end of second quarter compared to 9x At the end of same period last year, we expect this rapid deleveraging to continue in the 3rd quarter. We have included some potential recessionary headwinds in our guidance. However, we are not seeing that impact yet. As we have mentioned before, June was the 1st month that our attrition rate was below 2019. We are seeing these trends now through July August, which reflects strong member sentiment to the Lifetime brand.

Speaker 2

Nevertheless, we will maintain our conservative perspective. Based on our first half financial results and despite our conservatism, We're still raising our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $510,000,000 to 520,000,000 from $470,000,000 to $490,000,000 This reflects an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.5% to 23.3%. We are also narrowing our full year revenue guidance to $2,235,000,000 to 2.265 1,000,000 for the year and maintaining the same midpoint despite shifts and some club openings to later in the year. For the Q3, we expect revenue to be $585,000,000 to $595,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA to be $136,000,000 to 138,000,000 I would like to finish my remarks by emphasizing the equity value in the Lifetime brand. With more than $120,000,000,000 impressions annually, our brand is providing an increasing number of opportunities to become bigger and stronger through asset light growth.

Speaker 2

We expect that this will continue well into the future. Before we start Q and A, I would like to take a moment to thank our incredible team of more than 34,000 people. Each of our enthusiastic and passionate team members plays a vital role in helping our members live Healthier, happier lives. This has allowed us to extend the power of our brand and fuel the strong results we're seeing. We're now looking forward to your questions.

Operator

Thank Our first question is from Chris Corral with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Speaker 3

Hi, good morning. So can you expand a bit more on the membership growth that you saw in the 2Q, maybe How they came in relative to your own expectations? And then how you're thinking about membership talents here going forward into the 3Q and 4Q and how that's embedded in your guidance?

Speaker 2

It's been growing exactly to our expectation, Chris. We're very happy with the growth. We're not seeing any weakness in any of the trends. The Memberships that are coming in, as we have told you guys and you understand, there is 0 Marketing 0 promotions, 0 efforts to sell. Our focus has been continuing to work on desirability in our clubs And it's working.

Speaker 2

I mean our attrition rates are dropping. And as attrition rates drop, That makes the net increase in memberships much easier to attain. We're very happy with where we're at.

Speaker 3

Got it. And then I did want to ask about the development update this morning. And just specifically, What's driving that increase in the openings guidance here, I think from 10 previously to 12 openings For the full year and just driving what's driving the confidence there? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. It's a great question, Chris. We are Systematically looking to see whether the number of opportunities that are available out there for us. And to our surprise, That number is nearly almost 200 asset light opportunities. This is not building our big Battleships, which is another couple of 100 possible locations.

Speaker 2

But on the asset light ones, we have already done about 10% of those. We've already done about 20 asset light deals. And then there's another 20 in discussions. So they are legit. And I think we can continue to basically harvest this opportunity In the years to come, next 4 or 5 years, which allows the company to grow revenue and EBITDA at a very, very nice pace without having to add significant amounts of leverage.

Speaker 2

Actually, we should be able to continue to delever the company.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Our next question is from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 4

So guys, let me follow on that last one right about sort of the expansion cadence and the capital light nature. Right. So, Bahram, would you think, 1, if I think about openings that the organization can handle, do you think that's about 1 a month, Right. So we settle in kind of 12 a year. And do you think the capital light piece ends up being maybe 2 or 3 of that 12 Or is it more than that?

Speaker 4

And then I guess the last piece, the suburban battleships, is there a way to Bring the cost of those down without harming the experience.

Speaker 2

Yes. Actually, the cost will Start coming down in the next we're starting to see already the construction costs sort of Starting to get leveled off, feet underground with some of the contractors instead of being up in the sky. And so and what we are what we this is giving us the ability to do, John, Is to sort of pick and choose which way we're going to grow the business. With the asset light opportunities, We can grow the revenue EBITDA easily in the double digit levels. If we didn't launch many of the big boxes, We are continuing to purchase the land, get the permits, get the approval, have the designs ready, And then we'll just decide systematically when to deploy the construction on those With a huge focus on making sure that we are continuing to delever the company as we go forward, growing the EBITDA And making sure we maintain the debt levels at the levels that they are right now without it going up.

Speaker 2

So that will continue to delever the business. And then strategically, we'll pick locations where we feel like the market is So amazing and we have pent up demand. We'll just start construction on the bigger ones.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. And then curious your assessment of the in center, the big in center businesses Today, right. And their recovery from COVID, obviously, personal training

Speaker 1

you retooled, but where do

Speaker 4

you think we stand on that? And I know you talked about trying to build in some macro headwinds. Is that where it will show up? My dues will be fine, but maybe engagement with Some of the personal some of the in center businesses, is that what you think we see softness if we see it anywhere?

Speaker 2

No, I actually don't think it has anything to do with that. Everything has to do with our execution.

Speaker 5

We have

Speaker 6

tremendous opportunity within

Speaker 2

our control with the execution of our In center programming, we have significant performance in certain clubs and we have so so performance in Some others with similar demographics, similar conditions, similar sizes of clubs, similar offering. So this is just going to take time. It's An opportunity to gradually take those places where there's significant opportunity to execute. The really positive news is we have We continue to work on innovation, creating new ways to grow The business and I'm really excited about what we are launching right now. It will take a couple more months before We have at least 150 locations robustly executing its dynamic stretch, which will be another opportunity for our personal training to get yet another double digit growth within itself on a per month basis.

Speaker 2

So and then beyond that, we have other things that we've been working on to basically increase The volume of revenue and the profitability in the four walls of each asset that we already own or anything that we will launch going forward. So look, if you're standing still, if you're creating nothing and you're expecting the same business To continue to do well for you, that's going to get tapped out at some point. But Lifetime has never stood still. We have constantly looked to see what are the other opportunities to elevate the experience to a higher quality, more extraordinary and invent and Introduce new programming that gives us more opportunity. So the last couple of years, we had to really work on all the different Innovations, all different transformations to get the company to a level where we are producing record levels of EBITDA margin from our business and at this point, I think we're just now super excited to roll out these new opportunities To continue our growth for 'twenty four and beyond.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer and Company. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Brian.

Speaker 8

Nice quarter. Congratulations.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 8

So the first question I have a couple of questions. But the first question, we've talked a lot about the leverage ratios and Bob Bahram, you both mentioned leverage ratios in your prepared comments. But so I guess I'll maybe ask a couple of parts. But I mean, if I'm doing the math correctly, Given the guidance, the EBITDA guidance you laid out for Q3, that implies a leverage ratio in Q3 down to 3.6%, 3.7%. So I just want to make sure I did my math correctly there.

Speaker 8

But I guess the bigger question is, how with that, how Close you now getting to that target you want to be

Speaker 2

at? Yes. It's a great question. Brian, I mean rough and tough, I mean, it's kind of a thumbnail, The guidance for the 3Q plus what we have delivered first, the first couple and then the first and the last quarter of last year, trailing 12 months EBITDA is rough and tough, is looking right just about $500,000,000 at the end of 3Q, When you look at trailing 12 months EBITDA. So I'm very, very proud of our team.

Speaker 2

We always Have had the goal of doing a $500,000,000 of EBITDA this year. That was the internal goal for the company, And we steadily have executed. Our team has steadily executed on the goal, and we've been able to raise Beat and raise the guidance every quarter. Our expectation is that, obviously, we're going to grow the revenue and EBITDA again on a trailing 12 month In every quarter, the foreseeable future. And so, one way or the other, we're going to Quickly, very rapidly get the company to under 3 times debt to EBITDA.

Speaker 2

And I want to emphasize, this is with at least Debt to EBITDA is a nice number, but what's really not being considered that Lifetime owns Well in excess of $3,000,000,000 of fee owned assets today that it continues to support the strength of the balance sheet of the company. And so we feel very, very good about getting the company under 3 times and we're clearly on our way to get there. Thanks for the question, Brian.

Speaker 8

That's very helpful. The second question I want to ask, this with regard to the center of the club openings. So we talked some So maybe I guess the first question would be articulate more like what's causing these delays? But then I think more importantly, Howard, how has the performance of new clubs been? Because I'm looking through my model, these are delayed, but I think they've been performing very well.

Speaker 8

So that It should actually bode well then for 'twenty four, right? I mean, recognizing you haven't given specific guidance for 'twenty four.

Speaker 2

Absolutely. So we Everything is within our control and then there are things outside of our control, I want to be clear. Being able to get the initial building permits To get launched, it's something that we work. Our team is a professional group at that, But sometimes it's completely outside of our control and the municipalities will take their time to give you the plumbing permits or the electrical permit. And we just can't get started.

Speaker 2

I mean, so once we start, then we can go. And then once we get to the other end, We have to have the health inspectors to come in through the health inspection and the building permits to get the occupancy permit. And some of those frankly are just completely outside of your control and a little bit of a delay on the construction. It's really a non event situation in here. Our revenue in the clubs in the first Few months, 2, 3 months is either a negative EBITDA revenue or slightly positive after 2, 3 months contribution So it really doesn't move the needle on the EBITDA.

Speaker 2

If anything, it's just a little bit of a negative, but that's already baked into our numbers. But on the other hand, you look back, we're going to open like literally 5 or 6, 7 clubs here in the next in 90 days. And we're going to get those all opened up and then all of that will start generating revenue in the 4th But it's going to generate really nice EBITDA in the 2024 years after that. So We're not seeing anything in here that would concern us. Everything is moving Very satisfactory to us as a management group and looking forward to continue to deliver The growth that we have been delivering, that we and the increase in EBITDA.

Speaker 8

I appreciate all the color.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Bahram.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Brian Harber with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 9

I wanted to follow-up just on a question about in center revenue as well. You mentioned it's kind of on you guys just to execute, but what is that specifically? Is it just like more training is required or Takes time to launch some of these programs. Do you think that you have to hire more to actually roll out some of those initiatives Better harvest some of that revenue, is there any sort of capital cost that's going to be required? What specifically is it that will drive that revenue?

Speaker 2

Great question, Brian. And it's actually when we went through before we went through COVID, We had clubs that they performed really well in the spa, in personal training, in the cafe, and then we had equivalent clubs who weren't performing as well, but they were doing okay. During COVID, with the shutdown stuff, we basically had almost everything go backwards. And then as we came back with the reintroduction of the way we're running the business, it's much more focused on casting The real leaders in each category and getting those going where we have been able to it's not just hiring. Hiring just personal trainers isn't going to work.

Speaker 2

You have to cast the absolute highest quality Professional trainers. So we're able to get those secured and placed and then support them from the all the initiatives from the office, we're seeing that It's a work in progress. It all is growing. It's not going to all happen at once. It's just going to take time to roll it in.

Speaker 2

And then we are like I told you, the next piece of innovation is like the dynamic stretch. That's going to have a significant impact On the opportunity of each trainer at Lifetime to make more money, each massage therapist to make more money, as we create A better opportunity for our team members to have a really nice living and a good income with good benefits, we continually grab those best talents in the community to come to work with Lifetime. That is continuing on. There's nothing has stopped. Nothing has slowed down from that.

Speaker 2

It's just a continued progress. So we're not seeing a again, I'm not unsatisfied Overall, with the growth in our in center, it's just going to take time, but it is steadily growing.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you. Yes, it makes sense. Some of the asset light opportunities you've called out. Is this a shift at all in the sense that do you think you may in fact grow faster, But with kind of like the same quantum of CapEx or do you think CapEx could even be more restrained going forward if you're going to Kind of lean into these.

Speaker 9

I don't know if this is just if you're thinking about this differently or if it's largely status quo.

Speaker 2

That's a great question again, and I want to just give it to you in a different form. My as I've stated repeatedly, my personal goal is to get this company to a level of EBITDA that we are able to finance 100% of our growth with internally generated cash. And that is basically in the horizon in the next 2 to 3 years, We can continue to grow the EBITDA significantly and basically with being able to do Locations where there are $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 upfront, it's just timing. For right now, We can lean heavier on these to sort of get the EBITDA to $500,000,000 then to 600,000,000 And then as we get to the $600,000,000 to $700,000,000 of EBITDA, we're also going to be able to kind of build the big battleships. Again, those look fantastic once you go through the sale leaseback with them.

Speaker 2

They're just sort of front heavy. And so we are just balancing all of this. The great news is we have Absolutely, completely under our control opportunity to grow this narrative. We can grow the revenue, we can grow the EBITDA, Reduce leverage and then when the revenue and EBITDA has grown significantly more, We'll take that excess cash flow and we do more of the big battleships as well. We also are going to continue to do Our sale leasebacks.

Speaker 2

I just want to be clear. We have no intention of ever changing the strategy of the company from asset light strategy, but it's just we have so much opportunity right now that based on the macroeconomics, The company has chosen to take advantage of more of the asset light ones early on and then later on we're layering The bigger boxes as well.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Robbie Ohmes with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Hey, Bahram, I wanted to Sort of see if you could give us an update on how you're thinking about the continued pricing benefit you're getting. I think it was I think the average monthly dues are running around 163 now and we're up about 15% versus last year. Can you how long can you keep growing? Where do you think the membership is going to end up and how much of a When is that going to continue to be for the back half of this year or next year?

Speaker 2

Yes. As I've covered that, we have Adjusted the prices for the new customers coming in entirely to manage the So we have had so many clubs doing so well that currently we have about 7 or 8 clubs that they're actually on a wait list. Now we are still taking memberships with these, but we're able to go through the wait list, Call people in and basically take these people in as using the clubs In the forms or the ways that we'll continue to help the delivery and the experience that we want. At the same time, this has allowed again, the price changes has been a function of completely and entirely controlling the We want to deliver as we are an experiential company. So the benefit is that when you look at Well, the price changes on the new member rack rate versus the people who have joined earlier with the lower dues, There is about $17,000,000 $18,000,000 a month difference between If everybody who was at that rack rate, right, if everybody went to rack rate, it would be $17,000,000 $18,000,000 a month.

Speaker 2

And I'm glad to cover this on this call because there is no way at any given time that we will ever do such a thing Because that would be like a brand suicide. However, what we do have is we have a very, very like Big supply, massive opportunity to continually pass on a slight amount of dues increase Very systematically with a complete sophisticated use of AI where we know that it doesn't bump up the Satisfaction or the attrition rate. And so we can continually see some increase in the dues revenue. And on top of that, as the even though with attrition rates dropping below 2019 numbers, We're going to keep seeing that people as they drop out and we get new customers coming in, that also bumps The reduced revenue of the clubs. We have more clubs, significantly more clubs doing over $1,000,000 of dues a month now than we had before we went to the COVID.

Speaker 2

So it's really I mean, like I wish I could sit here and report something bad To try to balance things out, but we are extremely happy With the way everything is working out right now.

Speaker 6

That's great. That's really helpful. And then just a follow-up, maybe for Bob, The center ops expense was lower than we were expecting this quarter. I think it was like 18,000,000

Speaker 2

Is that

Speaker 6

that seems lower than we would have thought. Does that stay lower? How are you guys doing that? And then also the Conversely, the center maintenance CapEx, I think, was like double year over year. Was that a timing thing?

Speaker 6

Or is there something going on there?

Speaker 1

Yes. To answer the second part for Robbie, that's just timing. I mean, remember, we will always invest to protect that member experience, And that's something we'll do year in and year out. So that's just timing. As it relates to center ops, that's a function of the rewiring of the company that Bahram and I have talked about Previously, and that's sustainable.

Speaker 1

That's not a 1 quarter and it's done. That's a sustainable change that we've made in how our clubs operate. So you should expect to see that benefit going forward.

Speaker 6

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, guys. I want to go back to the, I guess, the asset light question one more time and come at it from maybe a slightly different way, which is What's most important when you're evaluating these sites? I mean, you don't want to obviously, you don't want to cannibalize their existing clubs. There's a lot of markets That wouldn't be an issue. But what's the how do you rank order prioritize in terms of number of memberships you can get, a pricing you can get, a margin.

Speaker 7

Just trying to understand like what drives that decision Yes, pick the old department store here, but not over here.

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a great question. First, We study the markets, demographics, the locations we want to be in. Then we decide on exactly What type of product we want to deliver and what's the best way what is the best strategy to deliver those products and services in that community. And so We when you do the big clubs with all things in one, that's fantastic. But sometimes Based on the more urban markets, the geographical situation does not allow you to go Buy 12 acres or 14 acres or 20 acres of land, and build your big boxes with everything under one roof.

Speaker 2

So then we deliver the product in some form of assortment and in Some locations, it may be 40,000 or 50,000 or 60,000 square feet, and we delivered the some of the components of our total Product, but we deliver with best in class indoor services that we do offer. We have clubs like Downtown Austin is at 58% contribution margin. So and it's only 35,000 square feet. So it's just as a network of our clubs and as part of the lifetime brands, we have Alpha, we have Ultra Fit, we have Strike, I mean, I can go on and on. We have all these amazing brands that we can choose from Which of all the brands that we provide will properly We can be represented in a market and if we feel like we've got the opportunity To assemble enough of those brands and deliver a profitable business model And service the community, then we'll just go ahead and deliver that.

Speaker 2

So and sometimes they become The opportunity where you have a couple of big, big clubs, maybe 12 miles apart, and then you have the opportunity to put the smaller one in between, And that sort of sews the whole thing together. So we've been my team and I here at Lifetime, we've been doing this for about 32 years. Prior to that, I did it for another 10 years prior to that time. So we've been selecting sites And delivering different types of boxes, sizes and all with similar profitability. We're Always targeting that high 30s, low 40s IRR after sell leaseback or If we just go into a lease.

Speaker 2

They're all depending on the situation and the development strategy can change.

Speaker 7

Okay. Appreciate that. So I know we're not going to we're not talking about 2024 yet, but I wanted to ask a directional question, which is just to sanity check. I mean, If we think we know roughly a number of units you might add next year and we layer in a little bit of pricing and in center growth, I mean, I know you're not we're not economists and forecasting in-depth, but is there any reason to think If we just add all those variables up that we're not going to still have significant, however you wanted to define that, Revenue growth next year and is there any reason that wouldn't flow through to positive margin expansion? Just trying to get a sense.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Matt. So look, as we well, let's talk about your last piece of your question, margin. So I as we put out 22% to 23%, 23.5% EBITDA margin right now Is really what I see, can that grow? The answer is yes. But can you just go ahead and it could get a little on the low end of that or high end of that?

Speaker 2

It depends on the How many clubs will open all at the same time in a quarter or 5 months and that Can put a little bit of a negative pressure and put that on the lower end of that 22%, 22.5%. And so then as those clubs ramp and go from contribution margin negative to contribution margin positive, it can push you. So just rough and tough, We pretty confidently believe we can deliver those margins going forward. And then as far as the growth, my expectation has been we will grow the company double digit Top and bottom line, and that's our goal. And I at this point, I don't want to get into delivering any sort of guidance for 2024, but with a number of opportunities ahead of us, I just I don't have a lot of concern Making a commitment that we are committed to growing the company in double digits range.

Speaker 7

Okay. Very good. Thanks guys.

Operator

Our next question is from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for all of the color thus far.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Yes, I wanted to follow-up on

Speaker 1

the $300,000,000 of sale leasebacks that you guys Reiterated that you will get done this year. I mean in terms of the timing, obviously, we're in the back half of the year at this point. I just wanted to make sure, one, the $300,000,000 is proceeds that you'll receive total this year. If there's any update in terms of the tone of conversations, How far along you are and maybe how you think about the risk reward to the extent that rates are a lot higher now and how these conversations have progressed even versus 3 or 6 months ago? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Great question, Dan. I am still fully expecting to Go forward with what we have set forward as a goal. We have Been working very methodically. My goal has been to get the company to this $500,000,000 of trailing 12 months EBITDA range and then kind of attack that market.

Speaker 2

As I've mentioned to you guys repeatedly, I've been working that market for years years years. I have no concerns about us getting sell leasebacks Done. They were still getting inbound calls to go through with those. It's just a matter of getting that rate, And I will give you guys an update on that in the next 60 days in terms of how we're going to get those done, but we're planning to get them done.

Speaker 1

Got it. And then just for my follow-up, in terms of the Q4, I think the implied center OpEx, and I think you've touched on it a little bit, but I just want to make sure I was clear. It sounds like that's going to take higher just as you open a bunch of new centers in the Q3, right? But I guess, were there any other variables in that guidance, like to the extent that you're Likeing that recessionary conservatism or a ramp up of in center revenues in the Q4 as you have these new centers come on or is it just that contribution Margin is going to be a little bit pressured as you open these new centers at the onset.

Speaker 2

Everything you mentioned is that you're exactly correct, Dan. So the new club openings, there's quite a few, as I mentioned. Some have been delayed a little bit here. So they're opening now, they're opening next month, the month after. We got a lot of openings.

Speaker 2

And again, all those clubs are going to open with a contribution margin negative early on. And then it's going to take, depending on the location, a month or 2 or 3 before they flip contribution margin positive. So we have taken that into consideration. We have, as we have mentioned, baked in some Conservatism for the macroeconomics, right? And finally, as we continue to Execute our strategy to get more locations, executing to our standards on the in center, Those many of the in centers are going to spa, cafe, they all come at a lower margin than our 22%, 23%.

Speaker 2

So we still want to grow those because that's the Differentiation of Lifetime, Athletic Country Club providing those services for the customer, but they do come they generate more revenue and more EBITDA, But they come at a lower margin. So all of those are exactly what you just covered. All of those are taken into consideration

Operator

Our next question is from Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Hey, guys.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Hope you're all having a nice summer.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 5

So recognizing these centers are a little different, just any update how you're thinking about like the average, the right number of memberships per center? And then Bahram, just could you speak to some of the learnings you have from the growing presence in maybe the higher traffic areas, Manhattan, you and I have talked about other cities. And then Bob, Could you speak to price versus new members that's embedded within the Q3 and the full year revenue guide? Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Okay. Let's go through those questions one at a time. First question again? Yes, just memberships per center? Okay.

Speaker 2

So we Simeon, we have clubs from literally Now with some of the urban ones, 25000, 30000 square feet to 300000 square feet. So I don't know that I can offer a membership per center. I don't know that I can offer a membership Percenter, that basically, you can just take the number of the memberships we have divided up by a number of clubs and try to get an average, but it's not going to help anybody With anything and as we are opening variety of different clubs, I think we just need to sort of help you guys with Maybe giving you a perspective of what we think is the right number of memberships In maturity, what number of membership is it that we're looking for based on the pricing in a market? So I don't know how to answer that without creating more confusion, frankly, because there is nothing to average out. I mean, the vastness of the Variety of the products that we offer.

Speaker 2

The second question?

Speaker 1

Learning from high traffic areas like opening clubs in Manhattan.

Speaker 2

Yes. So right now, what we are seeing is the brand is allowing Lifetime To get a really lift on terms of how we are processing things. We're getting Wait list established before the clubs open up. Our teams and will approach as that group And we're getting the our pre sales are short there. They're only about 90 days because we have a bigger pool of weight, so it's much, much more efficient.

Speaker 2

And pretty steadily right now, Simeon, we are able To hit the desired dues goal that we have for a club opening Exceeded. So more clubs are reaching contribution margin Faster than ever before conversion margin positive, faster than ever before. So the learning is to continue to do what we're doing, Keep pressing on and keep looking for opportunistic places to grow the Lifetime brand and deliver the products and services to people.

Speaker 1

Yes. And then, Simeon, I'll take the last one on price versus membership growth. If you look at the Q2, we saw membership growth in clubs that were opened prior to the pandemic. We saw clubs open from 2020 to 2023 or 2022 and we saw membership growth in clubs opening this year. So we've got very Broad based membership growth across all our clubs sort of regardless of when they were first opened.

Speaker 1

Any price benefit that we see that is due to pricing that we've already taken, pricing The only additional pricing we would take, it's what Bahram mentioned earlier, really done to protect that member experience.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks a lot guys. Best of luck for the rest of the year.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Andrew. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Thanks for the questions.

Speaker 5

Ram, just wanted to follow-up on Simeon's When you look at the experience you're gaining with these new rack rates and sort of addressing the overcrowded facilities and applying the AI, when you think about these new learnings you're picking up, whether it's pricing sensitivity, demographics, singles, couples, families, willingness to pay services or amenities you're offering that sort of seals the deal and get you that new member, that new sign up. I guess what's the most surprising to you in terms of the new learnings you've been getting over the past, I don't know, 12 or 18 months as you dig into this data?

Speaker 2

Well, what we are seeing that the customer that is interested in the experience, They are pretty insensitive to the price being $2.29 or $2.49 or $2.69 They just There is 0 we cannot see any effect. That's the learning. It's just it doesn't impact the membership units, the growth. You either have to be 100% committed to metrics or you need to be 100% committed to deliver The brand experience that you want and that's what Lifetime has done. And our learning is that this is what's working And the customer is appreciative and I see people are so passionate about Lifetime.

Speaker 2

I was just talking to one member last night. Hey, my daughter basically refuses to live somewhere that is not close to a lifetime. So they Move from one state to another one when they go back, they're buying a house close to the brand new lifetime opening up, so that they can so we are going to continue To focus on what has worked is just control The narrative around our brand for our customer experience and that's given us all the leverage, all the power, All the muscle we need right now, we're getting more amazing locations, more opportunities than we've ever had. And so we're just going to continue to execute on that, but that's the learning. The learning is you can't be wishy washy, you can't Try to control, be cost conscious and experience conscious at the same time.

Speaker 2

And I emphasize, there's a lot of just a tremendous amount of narrative about cost of I read the stuff coming back, People that go cost efficiencies, cost efficiencies, cost efficiencies. I have been like a broken record. We have not Focused on cost control, we rewired the company so we can make faster, Better decisions to serve our customers more robustly with more ease and be more responsive to our Lead Generals, so they can make decisions. And is that efficiency coming from the rewired business That is a structural for long term. There is 0 focus on cost control, like literally 0.

Speaker 2

Our focus is 100% on delivering the maximum experience for the customer. That's the instruction to every Inspections on are you delivering the right brand quality for what we want. And the company has never been more Succinct and aligned and homogeneous be working well, and we see the results of that. Thanks for that. And then just

Speaker 5

I want to ask big picture about these new weight loss drugs that are hitting the market. Your membership base skews towards active individuals in a different target market than for pharma.

Speaker 2

But to the extent you've thought about it, how do you

Speaker 5

think about Pharma complementing your business. It does unlock new opportunities for outreach for some of these folks who may be more active for the first time. You can integrate them with membership bases like you're doing with Aurora for some of the older folks that are out there. I think some of the programs, personal training, the stretching you mentioned this morning, That could apply. I'm curious how you think about the potential macro impact on the business from the pharma side?

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 2

That's a great question. I think if we were purely a fitness company, It would impact us maybe because people are taking pills to lose weight. The reality of that particular, and I won't mention any names, is that whenever you take a pill that will Suppresses your appetite and you don't eat, it is eventual lose of muscle and then eventual lose of bone density For someone to take a jump start to lose a bunch of weight and get off of it, it's okay for someone to get on those things And to stay on them is absolutely long term detriment to their health. This will become like everything else We'll come and go. People will learn their lesson with that, but it doesn't impact our business.

Speaker 2

I mean, again, I emphasize our clubs are focused On a very, very, very broad social aspect, country club aspect, beach club, It's the social gathering of people that is all the amazing small and large group classes that is people's Actually network of social community get together, the weight we have fewer people Joining us for weight loss, then they have they're joining for these other reasons. It's always been the case. Well, we're not seeing a difference in our sign up because people are doing these It's not really a factor. So hopefully, I answered that correctly for you. But we are not Concerned about it, nor we're seeing, oh my God, this person didn't join us because they're taking this particular drug to lose weight, so they're not coming to lifetime.

Speaker 2

That's definitely not the case.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bahram for closing comments.

Speaker 2

No, we're just appreciative of everybody and all the great questions. Looking forward to continue and see you guys hopefully in between or next quarter.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

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Key Takeaways

  • Lifetime delivered 22% revenue growth in Q2 to $562 M, generated net income of $17 M versus a $2 M loss last year, and drove adj EBITDA up 116% to $136 M (24.2% margin, +10 pp YoY).
  • Memberships rose 25% YoY to ~790,000 (including 832,600 total subscriptions), average revenue per membership climbed 10% to $701, while attrition dipped below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Net debt/adj EBITDA fell sharply to 4.2x from 9x a year ago, supported by strong operating cash flow and a targeted $300 M in sale-leasebacks to accelerate deleveraging.
  • Management raised full-year guidance for adj EBITDA to $510–$520 M (22.5–23.3% margin) and narrowed revenue to $2.235–$2.265 B, with Q3 revenue of $585–$595 M and adj EBITDA of $136–$138 M.
  • Expansion is being driven by nearly 200 identified “asset-light” locations (20 closed, 20 in discussion), increasing expected 2023 club openings from 10 to 12, alongside investments in AI pricing and new in-club programs (e.g., “dynamic stretch”).
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Life Time Group Q2 2023
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