Celestica Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 27, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Celestica Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. This call is being recorded on Thursday, July 27, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Oberth.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us Celestica's Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today are Rob Mionis, President and Chief Executive Officer And Mandeep Chawla, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, during this call, we will make forward looking statements within the meanings of the U. S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities laws.

Speaker 1

Such forward looking statements are based on management's current expectations, Forecasts and assumptions, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual outcomes and results For identification and discussion of such factors and assumptions, As well as further information concerning forward looking statements, please refer to yesterday's press release, including the cautionary note regarding forward looking statements therein, Our most recent Annual Report on Form 20 F and our other public filings, which can be accessed at sec.govandsedar.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward looking statement except as required by law. In addition, during this call, we will refer to various Non IFRS financial measures, including ratios based on non IFRS financial measures, consisting of non IFRS operating margin, Adjusted gross margin, adjusted return on invested capital or adjusted ROIC, adjusted free cash flow, Gross debt to non IFRS trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio, adjusted earnings per share or adjusted EPS, Adjusted SG and A expense and adjusted effective tax rate. Listeners should be cautioned that references to any of the foregoing measures During this call, denote non IFRS financial measures, whether or not specifically designated as such. These non IFRS financial measures do not any standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other public companies that report under IFRS or who report under U.

Speaker 1

S. GAAP and use non GAAP financial measures to describe similar operating metrics. We refer you to yesterday's press release and our Q2 2023 earnings presentation, which are available at celesica.com under the Investor Relations tab For more information about these and certain other non IFRS financial measures, including a reconciliation of historical non IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures from our financial statements and a description of modifications to specify non IFRS financial measures during 20222023. Unless otherwise specified, all references to dollars on this call are to U. S.

Speaker 1

Dollars and per share information is based on diluted shares outstanding. Let me now turn the call over to Rob.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Craig. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call. We are very pleased to have delivered Our revenue of $1,940,000,000 and our non IFRS adjusted EPS of $0.55 Each exceeded the high end of our guidance range. Our non IFRS operating margin of 5.5% Was the highest in the company's history with non IF operating margin firmly above 5% for the past 4 consecutive quarters, reflecting the new Celestica. Finally, our non IFRS Adjusted free cash flow of $67,000,000 marked our highest quarterly result in over 3 years.

Speaker 2

The strength of our results reflect the benefits of our portfolio's strategic diversification and our exposure to a number of very attractive markets. In our CCS segment, we continue to see solid growth in our hyperscaler business as we believe their investment in artificial intelligence and machine learning will provide long term secular tailwinds in a number of our served markets. In our ATS segment, ramping of new green energy programs coupled with returning commercial aerospace demand have continued to support double digit year over year growth. We continue to execute well for our customers and our focus on operational excellence Has enabled our growth and margin performance. Additionally, the material supply environment continues to gradually normalize, allowing us to further improve operational efficiencies.

Speaker 2

Before I provide an update on the outlook for each of our end markets, I would like to turn the call over to Mandeep, who will discuss our financial performance in the Q2 and our guidance for the Q3 of 2023. Mandeep, over to you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. 2nd quarter revenue came in at 1 point 9 4000000000 Exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Revenue was 13% higher year over year, supported by over 20% growth in our ATS segment and higher revenues In our CCS segment, our 2nd quarter non IFRS operating margin of 5.5% was 70 basis points higher year over year driven primarily by improved volume leverage in both segments, including strong profitability in our CCS segment. Non IFRS adjusted earnings per share were $0.55 for the 2nd quarter, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and were $0.11 higher year over year, driven by higher operating profit and lower shares outstanding. In the 2nd quarter, ATS segment revenue was 8 $5,000,000 up 24% year over year and higher than our expectations of a mid teens percentage increase.

Speaker 3

The year over year increase in ATS segment revenue was driven by continuing strength in our industrial business, supported by Turning commercial aerospace demand and A and D, which more than offset demand softness in our capital equipment business. ATS segment revenue accounted for 45% Total revenues in the Q2. Our CCS segment revenue of $1,070,000,000 were up 5% The increase was driven by very strong revenue growth in our enterprise end market, supported by strong demand for proprietary compute, driven by AI and machine learning applications and was partially offset by anticipated softness in communication demand. Our HPS business generated revenue of $354,000,000 in the quarter, lower by 23% year over year. HPS revenues have moderated compared to the prior year period, driven by tough comps and anticipated shifts in hyperscaler CapEx spend from networking products towards compute capacity in support of AI application.

Speaker 3

HPS revenues were 18% of total company revenues in the 2nd quarter compared to 27% in the prior year period. We do expect HPS revenues to grow sequentially in the coming quarters. Communications end market revenue for the Q2 was lower by 15% year over year, in line with our expectation of a mid teens percentage decrease. The decline was driven by tough comps and reduced HPS networking purchases from hyperscaler customers, although we support these customers with other Celestica solutions. Enterprise end market revenue in the quarter was up 42% year over year, well above our expectation of a high-20s percentage increase, driven by the strong demand for proprietary compute.

Speaker 3

Turning to segment margins. ATS segment margin was 4.8% in the 2nd quarter, 30 basis points higher year over year. The expansion in ATS segment margin was driven by greater volume leverage As our industrial green energy programs continue to ramp and commercial aerospace recovery as well as strong productivity. DCS segment margin of 6.0 percent was up 100 basis points year over year and was the highest on record. The increase was driven by higher volume leverage, particularly in our enterprise end market, as well as strong productivity and favorable mix.

Speaker 3

Moving on to some additional financial metrics. IFRS net earnings for the quarter were $56,000,000 or $0.46 per share, compared to net earnings of $36,000,000 or $0.29 per share in the prior year period. Adjusted gross margin for the 2nd quarter was 9.7%, up 70 basis points year over year, primarily due to volume leverage and cost productivity improvements. Our 2nd quarter non IFRS adjusted effective tax rate was 21% compared to 22% in the prior year period. Non IFRS adjusted ROIC for the 2nd quarter was 20.0%, an improvement of 3.8% compared to the prior year quarter.

Speaker 3

Moving on to working capital. Our inventory at the end of the second quarter was $2,300,000,000 Down $58,000,000 sequentially and up $238,000,000 year over year. Cash deposits were $810,000,000 at the end of the second quarter, was nearly flat sequentially and higher by $284,000,000 compared to the prior year period. Cash cycle days were 73 during the Q2, 2 days lower sequentially and 4 days higher than the prior year period. Capital expenditures for the Q2 were $32,000,000 or approximately 1.7 percent of revenue compared with 1.3% in the Q2 of 2022.

Speaker 3

The increase in our capital expenditures aligns with our previously communicated expectations for increased investments in support of new program wins. Non IFRS adjusted free cash flow in the Q2 was $67,000,000 compared to $43,000,000 in the prior year period. Given our solid year to date performance, we are now expecting $125,000,000 in non IFRS adjusted free cash flow for 2023. Moving on to some additional key metrics. Our cash balance at the end of the 2nd quarter was $361,000,000 down $5,000,000 year over year and up $42,000,000 sequentially.

Speaker 3

Our cash balance in combination with approximately $600,000,000 of borrowing capacity under our revolver provide us of approximately $1,000,000,000 which we believe is sufficient to meet our anticipated business needs. At the end of the Q2, our gross debt was $618,000,000 down $5,000,000 from the previous quarter, leaving us with a net debt position of $257,000,000 Our 2nd quarter gross debt to non IFRS Trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 1.2 turns, down 0.1 turns sequentially and down 0.5 turns compared to the same quarter of last year. At June 30, 2023, we were compliant with all financial covenants under our credit agreement. During the Q2, we purchased approximately 1,400,000 shares for cancellation at a cost of $15,000,000 We intend to continue to be opportunistic on share repurchases under our NCIB for the remainder of the year. Now turning to our guidance for the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 3

3rd quarter revenues are expected to be in the range of 1 $900,000,000 to $2,050,000,000 which would represent an increase of 3% year over year if the midpoint of this range is achieved. 3rd quarter non IFRS adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $0.56 to $0.62 per share. If the midpoint of our revenue and non IFRS adjusted EPS guidance ranges are achieved, non IFRS operating margin would be 5.6%. This would represent an increase of 50 basis points over the prior year period and a 10 basis point increase sequentially. Non IFRS adjusted SG and A expense for the Q3 is expected to be in the range of $66,000,000 to $68,000,000 We anticipate our non IFRS adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 19% for the Q3, excluding any impact from taxable foreign exchange.

Speaker 3

Now turning to our end market outlook for the Q3 of 2023. In our ATS end market, We anticipate revenue to be up in the low double digit percentage range year over year, driven by continued growth in our industrial, Healthtech and A and D businesses, partially offset by continued market headwind in capital equipment. In our CCS segment, we are expecting revenues to be approximately flat year over year in Q3 as lower communications revenues are anticipated to be mostly offset by higher enterprise revenues. We anticipate revenues in our communications end market to be down in the high single digit percentage range year over year, driven by tough comps and lower anticipated demand from certain programs in networking, including in our HPS business. We anticipate a meaningful improvement on a sequential basis when compared to the Q2.

Speaker 3

Finally, in our enterprise end market, we anticipate revenue to be up in the low double digit percentage range year over year, driven by anticipated continuing demand strength in proprietary compute from our hyperscaler customers. I'll now turn the call back over to Rob to discuss the outlook for our end markets and business overall.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mandeep. Following our strong financial performance in the Q2, we are pleased to raise our annual outlook for 2023. Our revenue outlook for the year is now at least $7,850,000,000 which, if achieved, Would represent growth of at least 8% and a highest revenue level since 2,007. Our outlook for 2023 non IFRS adjusted EPS is now raised to $2.25 If achieved, this would represent 18% growth compared to the prior year. We anticipate non IFRS operating margin of 5.5% for 20 23, which would represent an increase of 60 basis points from 2022.

Speaker 2

As we look forward to 2024, we We expect revenue growth across each of our businesses, supported by anticipated strong secular tailwinds and new program wins. We believe that this growth with continuing margins churn will lead to non IFRS adjusted EPS growth of 10% or more in 2024 relative to our 2023 outlook. Now I would like to provide some detail on the outlook for each of our businesses. We continue to expect our ATS segment revenue to grow in the mid teens percentage range in 2023 compared to 2022. Our industrial business has been the most significant growth driver in our ATS segment so far in 2023, With revenues up more than 40% year to date compared to the prior year period, we anticipate that the year to year growth experienced Fire and industrial business in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of the year.

Speaker 2

Our long term outlook is also very positive As we believe that a number of structural tailwinds support demand, particularly for green energy, EV charging and on vehicle projects. We also believe that our business is well positioned to continue to capitalize on this demand as we ramp a number of new program wins in the space. Our outlook for capital equipment remains muted as the wafer fab equipment market continues to work through a reduction in demand. We are encouraged that due to the scale and structural adjustments made to our capital equipment business in recent years, we expect it to remain profitable during this downturn And outperform the broader wafer fab equipment market due to the benefits of our mix, market share gains and new program wins. We anticipate our capital equipment business to return to growth in 2024, in line with the most current outlook for the wafer fab equipment market.

Speaker 2

We are also pleased to be ramping a number of new programs, including a new lithography customer. We are seeing a strong recovery in demand within commercial aerospace, and the normalization of commercial ad traffic is expected to continue. We're seeing benefits from this trend across all submarkets of our commercial aerospace business, including single and dual aisle aircraft And Business Aviation. Additionally, we are benefiting from a number of new defense program ramps in 2023. The outlook for our overall A and D business remains positive.

Speaker 2

Our Healthtech business is experiencing solid double digit year to year growth, driven by new program ramps in the areas of surgical instruments and imaging devices. Our outlook for our HealthTech business remains positive and stable, with less anticipated volatility in demand relative to other markets. Now let's turn to our CCS segment. For 2023, CCS revenues are expected to be up in the mid single digits compared to 2022, with anticipated growth in enterprise expected to more than offset Softness in communications. We anticipate the recent strength in segment margin to continue and remain accretive to our overall business throughout 2020 Great.

Speaker 2

Our enterprise end market is experiencing very strong growth being the beneficiary of our hyperscalers customers' demand Advanced computing capacity to support artificial intelligence and machine learning applications. We anticipate the demand for proprietary compute We'll continue to support double digit revenue growth rates in enterprise throughout 2023. As mentioned, the 2023 outlook Our communications end market remains muted when compared to 2022 as a result of a moderation in customer demand and difficult comps. Our HPS business continues to experience demand moderation compared to 2022. We anticipate stronger sequential revenues in the second half of the year And our current outlook calls for our HPS business to resume year to year growth in 2024 as new programs ramp.

Speaker 2

Our total portfolio of businesses within hyperscale customers remain very healthy as they are continuing to make significant investments In their AI and machine learning capacity and capabilities, we have been a key partner for our hyperscaler customers as they have worked to build out their data center infrastructure. Hypersailers now represent approximately $2,500,000,000 of revenue over the past 12 months for Selectica, Having grown at approximately a 50% CAGR since 2018. Recent hyperscaler demand has skewed towards proprietary compute products. Moving forward, We anticipate Hyperscale's ongoing deployment of AI and machine learning infrastructure will accelerate their networking refresh cycle as they are expected to need more advanced networking infrastructure to support their investments in computing capacity. As a result, we anticipate demand for our HPS products and services to increase in future periods.

Speaker 2

We are market leaders in the 400 gs switches and are pleased that we are continuing to win engagements in 800 gs switches Based on our continued investment in next gen applications, our strategic offerings and unique capabilities in networking are expected to support revenue growth with our hyperscaler customers over the long term. I am pleased with our strong performance during the first half of twenty twenty Great. As the latter half of the year takes shape, we look forward to continuing to execute on our long term strategic vision, delivering on our targets and driving value for our shareholders. We remain encouraged by the prospects for our business in the months ahead and into 2024. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Rob Young from Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Maybe just a little bit of information on the Proprietary compute elements of

Speaker 5

the business. I think you

Speaker 4

had 1 10% customer in CCS. I assume that's in proprietary compute. And maybe if you could Give a little more color around how many customers are in this space, if it's one that's driving all of this or if it's multiple, if you're an enterprise and hyperscaler or if it's just driven by the hyperscaler, Maybe just a little more color to broaden that out.

Speaker 2

Sure, Rob. Yes, in the areas of proprietary compute, We're supporting multiple hyperscaler customers and ramping these types of products. And across those customers, it's not just Proprietary compute, we're actually doing a number of different engagements. That means hardware platform solutions, services, Proprietary Compute and Other High Value EMS Engagements. It's also to point out, I'll add, Rob, our top ten concentration right now is 61% down 7% year over year.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then in your deck that accompanied the earnings, you've suggested there's an AI Deployment, which would accelerate the network refresh cycle for you. I assume that's a reference to the 400 gig switch in HPS. And so if you could give maybe a little more color around what exactly that means? Why would there be a network refresh cycle driven by that?

Speaker 4

And how do you participate there?

Speaker 2

Yes. There's a couple of interesting megatrends associated with the proliferation of AI and ML products. On the networking, AI is driving the requirement for more networking power. So these accelerators such as GPUs and TPUs significantly increased the need for bandwidth and thus power usage by more than 20 times. So This is actually creating pull through demand for our core networking products where we have a commanding share.

Speaker 2

The other important networking megatrend, I should say, It's 400 gs to 800 gs migration. So this migration is going to enable higher speed network Over the next couple of years and we anticipate broader adoption of 400 gs and also building of 800 gs volumes. Again, we're a market leader in 400 gs and we also have several new engagements on 800 gs based on our strong heritage in 400 gs, so we expect those volumes to continue as AI and ML proliferate and create this pull through demand.

Speaker 5

And Rob, just to add That 400 to 800 gs migration, that's primarily HPS products. So when we talk about HPS resuming growth in forward periods, That is part of the driver.

Speaker 4

Great. And then that's my last question, it's related to the HPS outlook. I think you said last quarter that it was Some of your large customers working down buffer inventory and then now I understand maybe it's more driven by a spend shift towards This proprietary compute, if you're looking forward into 2024, do you have the capacity to manage both of those Businesses at the current level of demand when the HPS demand returns, if I can make that assumption?

Speaker 2

Yes. We're actually expanding capacity in our Thailand facility to enable this growth. That capacity, we already started the expansion. That capacity will come online in the second half of the year, but we do have capacity to do HPS products and also the proprietary compute products. These are Highly automated lines in our Thailand facility is our flagship facility and has continued to operate fantastically through the pandemic and now Coming out of it at peak efficiency.

Speaker 4

And if that buffer inventory that some of your customers are working through, if Demand drives them to choose to build up inventory again or if their inventory is eating the Could that come back faster than 2024? And then I'll pass the line.

Speaker 2

Yes. On the AIML products, If we're able to get some of the silicon a little faster, it's certainly the demand the backlog is certainly there. We should be able to actually fulfill that demand. Right now, AI and ML products are being paced by material. Probably speaking, Aside from that and also aside from aerospace and defense, the material environment is largely back to pre COVID levels.

Speaker 2

That being said, lead times are still extended on several commodities.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks for taking all my questions. Congrats on the quarter.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rob.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Thanos Moschopoulos from BMO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. Just given the acceleration in free cash flow, what are your current thoughts on capital deployments As you think about buybacks versus deleveraging versus M and A?

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi, Thanos. Good morning to you. We're really pleased with the cash flow generation. As you know, we've generated now positive free cash flow for Over 4 years, so 18 quarters, I think, in a row now.

Speaker 5

We're pleased that we're able to raise our overall outlook. Our balance sheet is very healthy, 1.2x leverage. To specifically answer your question, we've been active on the buyback front, but we have been opportunistic, as you know. The share price, of course, has materially accelerated through the quarter, but we did some buybacks early in the quarter, and we were able to buy back about $15,000,000 worth of shares at just over $11 A share, which is very good value. We'll continue to be opportunistic if we believe that our results are not being properly reflected in our share price.

Speaker 5

But other than that, I think we would continue to build dry powder. We continue to have very robust M and A funnel. We don't have a large ticket item that I would say is right in front of us, but we are focused on tuck in acquisitions, which will help continue to expand our And so we want to continue to maintain that optionality, but we're able to pivot pretty quickly based on what's happening in the market.

Speaker 6

Great. And then, Rob, on A and D, just joining that business, I know for a while it was operating at depressed margins. So are margins kind of now at ATS group average levels? Is there more room property leverage as volumes continue to ramp? And then just any color you can provide in terms of just the rough size of that business would be helpful.

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Hi, it's Anatol. I'll start off and let Mandeep finish. So the A and D business is certainly growing and getting back to pre pandemic levels, we believe, in 2024. In terms of margin performance, material availability, as I mentioned earlier, is still a gating item. So that has been impacting margins And we saw the strong backlog and a lot of past dues, and that is also impacting our efficiency.

Speaker 2

So it's not yet Operating at pre pandemic margins at this stage of the game?

Speaker 5

Yes. What I would say overall, if I just take a step back talk about ATS margins. We're very pleased right now with the performance that we're seeing in industrial as many of those new programs in green energy have been ramping. We're pleased with the performance that we're seeing in HealthTech. We continue to believe that there's a margin opportunity in A and D, Albeit, maybe not immediately in front of us, but as we go into 2024, as materials availability become better, we can More efficiency, we continue to evaluate pricing opportunities with on our longer term contracts.

Speaker 5

So we think there's still some opportunity in A and D. And then of course, we believe there's opportunity in capital equipment. This is a very different capital equipment business than what we had in the last down We're profitable right now. We've taken cost actions without getting rid of capability. And so we continue to see an opportunity even though C is already a profitable business that as that demand comes back, we'd be able to continue to grow.

Speaker 5

In terms of the size of A and D, So I've mentioned this a few times, which is our industrial portfolio is our biggest business and our A and D business and our capital equipment business often Are considered roughly the same. It's about an $800,000,000 business, but we do believe that there's still an opportunity to grow it as we go into 'twenty four.

Speaker 6

Great. Congrats on the quarter. I'll pass the line. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dennis. Thanks, Thanos.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Todd Coupland from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning. I was hoping to get some context on how the AI deployment has worked out over the last couple of years. My understanding is The initial capacity and modeling was put in place by the hyperscalers back in 2020. So can you just take us through how Celestica, if you did indeed benefit from that, how you did? And then I have a follow-up question.

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. We've been thanks Todd. We've been growing with The hyperscalers now for quite some time as you saw in our presentation. Hyperscaler growth This year is over 30%. It's a 51% CAGR, I believe we mentioned during the call.

Speaker 2

With the hyperscalers, One of the products that we provide them are compute products. As AI and ML have proliferated and going to proliferate, The use of custom silicon has also proliferated. And because of The cooling requirements and the complexity that's required to actually build these products, it really plays to our strengths, our heritage and our strengths in terms of providing advanced manufacturing solutions. So when this trend kicked off, so did our growth with them and Being able to provide these products, not just at scale, I would Todd, because our heritage and our strength and our ability to actually scale these things and provide them reliably and considerably has really led to some of our growth in these products. Furthermore, I would say in terms of the refresh cycle, what we see now is that the X86 Compute modules are being replaced by these proprietary compute modules.

Speaker 2

And over time, we see this refresh cycle lasting for quite some time, so it bodes to further growth. Hopefully, that answers your question.

Speaker 7

That's helpful. And then if we think about visibility and How lumpy the business might be. Could you just provide some context on that And perhaps include whether or not outside indicators like GPU growth Chip suppliers like NVIDIA for AI demand are good indicators for the strength of your business as well? Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Yes, those are good indicators. We have good visibility on especially this line of business. Our customers are asking us to go out there and place orders for long periods of time. The lead times for the custom silicon are a little shy of a year. So we placed orders for multiple years, if you will.

Speaker 2

And our customers' CapEx forecasts are also robust and investing in these types of products. So we feel very confident that this growth will continue. So GPUs and TPUs are actually good leading indicators in terms of what we're doing to at our customers' lease area.

Speaker 5

Todd, maybe I'll just add to it, which is, as you saw in the presentation, our hyperscaler business now is close to $2,500,000,000 It's well over 50% of the overall CCS business. That's reflective of what's been happening in the broader market over the last 5 to 7 Which is a significant amount of TAM shifting from OEMs to the hyperscalers. And as it relates to AI and generative AI, a lot of those applications Need to be run through a data center or a cloud provider, just given the very heavy compute requirements. And so It is a concentrated industry. That being said, we're pleased that, A, we're able to do business with most of the top hyper And then within our engagement models, we've focused very much on servicing them through multiple programs.

Speaker 5

And so with some of our largest ones, we're doing both HPS and non HPS products. We're doing networking as well as compute And so that's the area of focus for us, which is real diversification within the customer.

Speaker 7

Mandeep, if I could have one last follow-up here. The business seems to be focused around hyperscaler. Are you seeing any specific Large businesses, large financial institutions or governments come in and lead the demand In terms of their own interest in AI apps or is it all happening as the hyperscalers are conduits for those end customers? Thanks a lot.

Speaker 5

I'll start off and Rob can add on as needed. But what I would say is that we're seeing the primary demand drivers coming right now from the hyperscalers. That being The products that they are adopting, which are the most leading edge technologies, do eventually find their way into other Applications as time goes on. And so as an example, even though the hyperscalers are moving from 400 gs to 800 gs switches, those 400 gs switches We need to have robust demand outside of the hyperscalers. And so we envision that that would be similar on the compute side as well.

Speaker 2

The only thing I would add tangentially is that we also expect our enterprise communication customers to Benefit from data center interconnects growth due to their proliferation of AI and the increased growth of data center traffic. So This AI proliferation is really impacting a number of our end markets and a number of our served products, if you will.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it.

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Maxim Mathieu Henski from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes, thanks. I just wanted to Circle back on the strong proprietary compute results. Have those trends stayed mostly the same over the past 90 days in terms of the hyperscaler demand or has there been any changes in terms of how fast you expect the hyperscaler business to grow this year?

Speaker 2

Hi, Maxim. I would say over the last 90 days, the demand has increased and our ability to serve that demand Also has risen. It's one of the reasons for the beat in Q2 and increased outlook for the year. We continue to run very efficiently in our Thailand facility, and we continue to be able to clear material shorts with the help from our supplier partners. So demand in that area has been increasing and our ability to serve that demand has also risen to the occasion.

Speaker 8

So just in terms of framing that with the kind of mid single digit increase that you expect for CCS in 2023, just given that Stronger demand, is that a reflection of perhaps the weaker communications segment? Or is that more of a timing thing? Or I guess how should we think about that mid single digit revenue for CCS?

Speaker 5

Yes. So what I would say, Max, it's Mandeep here, is we really are dealing with incredibly tough comps in the CCS business. The CCS business in Q3 and Q4 last year grew between 30% 40% year over year. And so we're in that period of dealing with tough comps. There been a demand shift from networking, which is one of the reasons you've seen HPS be down into the proprietary compute.

Speaker 5

But as we go into 2024, the demand signal that we're getting right now from our customers is that we will be able to grow across multiple served areas. So it's really about tough comps in the second half of this year.

Speaker 8

Okay, got it. And just final question for me. Just in terms of the AI driven data center build outs, are you seeing any changes in either the competitive advantage or the market positioning as it relates to the Types of switches and equipment that the hyperscalers are looking for, just as compared to kind of a more traditional Data center build out, is there any different players or competitors that perhaps are stronger in that Technology that's needed for AI driven data centers as opposed to this additional?

Speaker 2

Yes. The need for AI is really going towards this custom silicon, which has higher power usage and has higher cooling requirements. So the folks that are able to actually produce these products at scale are the ones that are winning in that And that frankly describes us very well. We have a very strong heritage in engineering, a very strong heritage with all the HPS products that we've been producing that support our ability to actually produce these types of Very complex products at scale. Okay.

Speaker 2

Thanks. I'll pass the line.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Daniel Chan from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Just want to drill into the enterprise guide for next quarter, you're guiding for low double digits next quarter. I'm guessing that implies about $400 ish million, which is down from our estimated $500,000,000 So just any color around that volatility that you're expecting for the next quarter would be helpful. Yes, hey Dan, Mandeep here. Yes, it is going to be down a little bit.

Speaker 5

Some of that is there's some seasonality in there. Again, we're coming off some very tough comps, but on a year over year basis, still strong double digit growth. What I would again say is that the growth is going to be continuing beyond Q3 and some of it's gated on when the is coming in, some of it's gated by material availability. And then as Robert also mentioned, we have been investing as well in capacity. And so we do continue to see That business growing even as we come out of Q3.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. Then Rob, you talked about some pull through demand from networking. As customers accelerate their AI investments, are they engaging on programs Outside of traditional data center hardware, so for example, you brought up cooling a number of times, are they looking to different cooling solutions with you or anything outside of your Typical networking, compute and storage solutions?

Speaker 2

Most of the solutions we provide them are completed products. So we're Our cooling solutions in our HPS design, we're also deploying them in proprietary computers. So we tend not to do engineering as a service. We tend to provide complete solutions. But we're also growing our aftermarket services business with these providers, especially in the areas of ITAD and things along those lines, Which is going to be a huge growing business for us moving forward.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank

Speaker 2

you. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll be turning the call over to Rob Maillanes for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I'm pleased with our continued strong performance in the Q2 and encouraged by our continued momentum as we enter the back half of the year. As the majority of our end markets are poised for growth in 2023, I'm also pleased we continue to be able to raise our 2023 financial outlook I'm also pleased that this momentum is continuing into 2024. Thank you for joining us on today's call and we look forward to updating you as we progress throughout the year.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Celestica Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00