Prosperity Bancshares Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 26, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Prosperity Bancshares Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Charlotte Rasche.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Prosperity Bancshares' 2nd quarter 2023 earnings conference call. This call is being broadcast live over the Internet at prosperitybankusa.com and will be available for replay for the next few weeks. I'm Charlotte Rasche, General Counsel of Prosperity Bancshares. And here with me today is David Zalman, Senior Chairman and Chief Executive Officer H.

Speaker 1

E. Tim Manis, Jr, Chairman Askelbeck Osmanov, Chief Financial Officer Eddie Safady, Vice Chairman Kevin Hannigan, President and Chief Operating Officer Randy Hester, Chief Lending Officer Merle Karnes, Chief Credit Officer Mayes Davenport, Director of Corporate Strategy and Bob Dowdell, Executive Vice President. David Zalman will lead off with a review of the highlights for the recent quarter. He will be followed by Asylbek Osmanov, who will review Our recent financial statistics and Tim Timanus, who will discuss our lending activities, including asset quality. Finally, we will open the call for questions.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, let me make the usual disclaimers. Certain of the matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward looking statements for the purposes of the federal securities laws and as such may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results or performance of Prosperity Bancshares to be materially different from future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to be materially different than those in the forward looking statements Can be found in Prosperity Bancshares' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Forms 10Q and 10 ks and other reports and statements we have filed with the SEC. All forward looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Now let me turn the call over to David Dahlman.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Charlotte. I would like to welcome and thank everyone listening to our quarter 2023 conference call. I'm pleased to announce that on May 1, 2023, Prosperity completed The merger with First Bancshares of Texas and its wholly owned subsidiary First Capital Bank, Headquartered in Midland, Texas. First Capital Bank operated 16 full service banking offices In 6 different markets in West, North and Central Texas areas, including its main office in Midland And banking offices in Midland, Lubbock, Amarillo, Wichita Falls, Burnett, Byers, Henrietta, Dallas, Horseshoe Bay, Marble Falls and Fredericksburg, Texas. For the Q2 of 2023, Prosperity's net income was impacted by merger related charges.

Speaker 2

Excluding those charges, our earnings remain strong, but are lower than previous quarters, primarily Because of the timing differences and that our cost of funds has increased faster than our earning assets have repriced. The good news is that based on our models, we show our net interest margin improving In a 12 month 24 month time period to more normal levels. However, if rates increase more than we anticipate, This could change. Together with our model projections, our strong capital position, our liquidity, Earnings, strong cost controls and sound asset quality, we believe opportunities remain for our continued growth And expansion. I would like to welcome our new associates and thank our current associates On a linked quarter basis, net income was $86,900,000 for the 3 months ending June 30, 2023, compared with $124,700,000 for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023.

Speaker 2

The change was primarily due to the merger. Net income per diluted common share was $0.94 for the 3 months Ending June 30, 2023 compared with $1.37 for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023. During the Q2 of 2023, Prosperity incurred a merger related provision for credit losses of $18,500,000 and merger related expenses of $12,900,000 Excluding these charges, earnings per diluted common share was $1.21 for the Q2 of 2023. Excluding the merger related provision and expenses, net of tax, the annualized returns On average assets and average tangible common equity for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023 1.14% 12.43 percent. Prosperity had strong loan growth for the quarter.

Speaker 2

Loans at June 30, 2023 were $21,600,000,000 an increase of $2,300,000,000 or 12% from $19,300,000,000 at March 31, 2003. Excluding the loans from the First Capital acquisition, loans increased $729,000,000 Or 3.7%, 15% annualized. Excluding warehouse purchase program loans And First Capital Loans, the organic loans increased 8% annualized. Our deposits at June 30, 2023 were $27,400,000,000 an increase of 376 $700,000 or 1.4 percent compared with $27,000,000,000 at March 31, 2023. Excluding the deposits from the First Capital acquisition, deposits decreased $1,100,000,000 During the quarter ended June 30, 2023, compared with the quarter ended March 31, 2023.

Speaker 2

Historically, we generally experienced a decrease in deposits in the Q2, primarily due to public fund accounts using their funds. However, this year, we also saw a decrease in core deposits. However, over the last 3 weeks, The decrease in core deposits has stabilized. We have not purchased any broker deposits to offset The deposit loss and we do not currently intend to do so. Our bankers, our focus is on building core deposits.

Speaker 2

Our non interest bearing deposits represented 37.9% of our total deposits at period end June 30, 2023. Our non performing assets totaled 62,700,000 or 18 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets at June 30, 2023, compared with $22,000,000 or 7 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets at June 30, 2022 $24,500,000 7 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets at March 31, 2023. Over $20,000,000 of the increase was due to the acquisition. In prior transactions, The amount of non performing assets that would be reflected as a non performing asset was the loan balance net of the mark. Under the new accounting rules, the full loan balance of all acquired non performing assets must be reflected regardless of the amount of the reserve.

Speaker 2

In this case, we have accrued an approximate 70% reserve for these acquired non performing loans. Additionally, there were 2 other loans totaling $14,000,000 Placed on non accrual status, one of which is under contract for sale. After the merger Adjustments. The allowance for credit losses on loans and off balance sheet credit exposures was 381 700,000 at June 30, 2023, compared with 312,000,000 at March 31, 2023. Further, the allowance for credit losses on loans to total loans, Excluding the warehouse purchase program loans increased to 1.68%.

Speaker 2

Our merger with Lonestar State Bancshares is pending regulatory approvals and is expected to close During the Q3 of 2023, although delays could occur. We continue to have conversation with other bankers Considering opportunities, we believe that higher technology and staffing costs, funding costs, loan competition, Succession planning concerns and increased regulatory burden all points to continued consolidation. We remain ready to move forward in the event a transaction materializes and will be beneficial to our company's Long term future and will increase shareholder value. Texas and Oklahoma continue to shine As more people and more companies move to the states because of business friendly political structure and no state income tax. Prosperity continues to focus on building core customer relationships, maintaining sound asset quality operating the bank in an efficient manner, while investing in ever changing technology and product distribution channels.

Speaker 2

We intend to continue to grow the company both organically and through mergers and acquisitions. I want to thank Everyone involved in our company for helping to make it the success it has become. Thanks again for your support of our company. Let me turn over our discussion to Asylbek Osmanov, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss some of the specific financial results we achieved. Asselbeck?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mr. Zalman. Good morning, everyone. Net interest income before provision for credit losses For the 3 months ended June 30, 2023, was $236,500,000 compared to $248,500,000 for the same period in 2022, a decrease of $12,000,000 or 4.8 percent. Loan and security interest income increased $93,900,000 $7,900,000 respectively in the Q2 of 2023 compared to the Q2 2022.

Speaker 3

This was offset by an increase in interest expense of $114,700,000 and a decrease in PPP loan fee income of 2,400,000 During the Q2 of 2023, we recognized $18,500,000 of day 2 accounting provision expense related to First Capital Acquisition. The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 2.73% for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023 compared to 2.97% for the same period in 2022 and 2.93% for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. Excluding purchase accounting adjustments, The net interest margin for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 was 2.7% compared to 2.97% for the same period in 2022 and 2.91 percent for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. The current quarter net interest margin was impacted by an increase in deposit rates at the end of the Q1 2023 and increase in borrowings. Non interest income was $39,700,000 for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023, compared to $37,600,000 for the same period in 2022,38,300,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2023.

Speaker 3

Non interest expense for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023 Was $145,900,000 compared to $122,900,000 for the same period in 2022 and $123,000,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. The linked quarter increase was primarily due to merger related expenses of $12,900,000 and 2 months of First Capital Bank's operation. For the Q3 2023, we expect non interest expense to be in the range of $134,000,000 to $136,000,000 which includes the additional operating expenses from the First Capital acquisition. However, this projection excludes one time merger related costs estimated to be around $10,000,000 to $12,000,000 and additional operating expenses from the pending acquisition of Lone Star Bank. Further, the 3rd quarter results will be impacted by day 2 accounting provision expense related to the Expected Lonestar acquisition in the Q3, which is estimated to be $10,000,000 to $13,000,000 The efficiency ratio was 53.2 percent for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023, compared to 43.1% for the same period in 202243.7% for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023.

Speaker 3

Excluding merger related expenses, the efficiency ratio was 48.5% for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023. The bond portfolio metrics at the sixthirtytwenty twenty three showed a weighted average life of 5.3 years and projected annual cash flows of approximately $2,170,000,000 And with that, let me turn over the presentation to Tim Timanus for some details on the loans and asset quality. Mr. Timanus?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Asselbeck. Our non performing assets at quarter end June 30, 2023 totaled $62,727,000 or 29 basis points of loans and other real estate, Compared to $24,485,000 or 13 basis points at March 31, 2023. This represents a $38,242,000 increase in non performing assets, $21,875,000 of which came from First Capital Bank of Texas. The June 30, 2023 non performing asset total was made up of $59,467,000 in loans, dollars 153,000 in repossessed assets and $3,107,000 in other real estate. Of the $62,727,000 in non performing assets, $8,294,000 are energy credits, dollars 7,923,000 of which are from First Capital Bank of Texas.

Speaker 4

Since June 30, 2023, $11,360,000 in non performing assets have been removed or are under contract to be sold. This represents 18% of the quarter end non performing assets. Net charge offs for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023 were $16,065,000 compared to net recoveries of $615,000 For the quarter ended March 31, 2023, $14,976,000 of the net charge offs were from one loan that Legacy Texas Bank And in its portfolio when the bank joined us.

Speaker 2

$18,540,000

Speaker 4

was added to the allowance for Credit losses during the quarter ended June 30, 2023. This addition to the allowance resulted from the acquisition of First Capital Bank of Texas. The average monthly new loan production For the quarter ended June 30, 2023, was $565,000,000 up from $436,000,000 from the prior quarter for a 30% increase. Loans outstanding at June 30, 2023 were approximately $21,654,000,000 Compared to $19,334,000,000 at March 31, 2023. This is a 12% increase on a linked quarter basis.

Speaker 4

The June 30, 2023 loan total is made up of 41% fixed rate loans, 29% floating rate and 30% variable rate. I will now turn it over to Charlotte Rasche.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Tim. At this time, we are prepared to answer your questions. Rocco, can you please assist us with questions?

Operator

Absolutely. Today's first question comes from Michael Rose at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for excuse me. Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning. Maybe we could just Good morning.

Speaker 5

Maybe we could just start on the core margin decline and what the expectations could be? And then Asselblak, excuse

Speaker 6

me, if

Speaker 5

you can Some color on what you expect the accretion to be With the First Capital deal going forward and then what the other deal will add in terms of accretable yield as we move forward. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. If you look at talking about margin, this quarter we were down 20 basis points, but It was the impact of several things as we discussed in the announced increase in deposit rate that we announced in our call During the first call earnings call impacted or had full impact in the Q2 and we had a little bit of more borrowing than we had in the Q1. So those two items impacted our margin because as we stated in the comments, Mr. Zalman said, for our assets, it takes time to reprice. It takes Time to reprice our loan portfolio in securities.

Speaker 3

As you saw in our security, we average yield on security was 2.07 percent and average our loans were 5.48%. So as time passes and those reprice and Right now related to specific security, we're not buying any security. That's why the yield is staying the same. We're using that cash flow. We have about $2,200,000,000 cash flow From the security, we're either using towards putting on the loans or paying down on borrowings depending how it is.

Speaker 3

In the Q2, we had a strong loan growth that which we use that funds toward loan growth. But if you just look at it, Michael, from there, If we can reprice our security with generating 207 right now and putting our new loans, we're getting about 8%. I mean that's almost 6% spread that would help us. But again, it's taking a time. And as we mentioned, if you look at 12 months, 24 months or 36 months, those really look good.

Speaker 3

But near term, yes, we did have some compression on the NIM. I know I kind of talk big picture, but that's how we see our balance sheet structure.

Speaker 2

Yes, Michael. I mean, it's I've always referred to we're like the Queen Mary in here. It just takes time and our models have been pretty good. Our models we've used for the last 30 years, 35 years and they've always been, I think very close and very spot on. And what our model show is that in a 12 month timeframe, our net interest margin It's around the 3% range, maybe a little bit better than that.

Speaker 2

And then in a 24 month time range, we go back to the 3.30%, 3.40 Net interest margin, but again it just takes time and that's just the situation that we're in right now and that's just The amount of time it takes to reprice our assets.

Speaker 3

Accredible yield? The accretable yield for the on the We expect about $3,000,000 from the First Capital Bank on quarterly basis.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. And then just following up on the bond repricing, I totally understand But what about on the loan side? I think if I look at your call reports, I think if I remember correctly, like 12% of the loans are expected to reprice In the next year, can you just give us a sense for if that's correct? And then what the yields on the nearer term maturities Kind of are and assuming they would reprice somewhere where current yields are, I would expect that you would see some pickup there.

Speaker 5

I think it'd just be helpful if you could provide some

Speaker 2

I'll let somebody jump in, but your 12% number seems low to me. It's based

Speaker 7

off straight off maturities Okay.

Speaker 2

Because our average life in our portfolio is about 3 years. So that seems low, but All new loans we're putting on are somewhere between 7.75% to 8.5%, I think. Tim mentioned the other day, we had 1 at 9%, but Somewhere in that range, I think.

Speaker 4

That's correct. The basic run on that is about On the low end 7.75 percent

Speaker 7

up

Speaker 4

to 8.5 percent. Right.

Speaker 3

Yes. And if you look at our cash flow, We analyze our annual cash flow. So within the next 12 months, we're going to get about $5,000,000,000 either paying down, paying off a maturity of the loans. And I think our call report shows $6,000,000,000 but there was some including loans that's going to be have variable rate. But the $5,000,000,000 for next 12 months should reprice an average rate you asked.

Speaker 3

When we calculate, it was very close to what our rate showing. Our margin is about 550.

Speaker 5

Okay. So some potential upside there. Okay, great. And then maybe just finally for me, the loan growth has been pretty good. I know you guys have talked about previously being a kind of not a lender of last resort, but certainly given some of the other competitors Have slowed down a little bit because they're full in terms of loaner deposit ratio, things like that.

Speaker 5

It seems like that is good. Any sense for kind of pipeline in just the healthier markets? And then Kevin, if you could just provide some comments on the warehouse, just given you've had 2 competitors kind of extra space and It looks like the average balances were a little bit higher than what you guided to. Thanks.

Speaker 7

Sure. Let me do the warehouse first, Michael. There have been a couple of competitors that have exited the space and I think first reaction might be they would scramble to get capacity elsewhere. But with the elsewhere, but with the shrinkage of the overall business, there haven't been many requests for increases where we had common clients. There might have been 1 or 2, but not to the extent you might otherwise think.

Speaker 7

I think the increase in volume, which was nice for the quarter, I think we had indicated we thought On average, the warehouse might run 800 to 850 for the quarter. It ran almost 900, ran 89. So it's a little better than we thought, but that I would say that's more seasonal. May was okay, June was really good, April was pretty soft. And I would expect going forward, July has been pretty good.

Speaker 7

So far, to give you an idea through last night, we've Average $1,062,000,000 in the warehouse, so July has been pretty good to us. I suspect August will also be pretty good. And then September Tends to weaken up a little bit with people returning to school and coming back off of vacations and things moderate down a little bit. So for Q3, 3, Michael. I'm going to say $900,000,000 on average $950,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 So we're running $1,062,000,000 right now.

Speaker 7

I think Net net, we might give a little bit of that back and on the top side maybe average $1,000,000,000 for the quarter. So that covers the warehouse and David you want me to take loan growth. Loan growth has been strong. If we go back to January when we about what we expected for the year. We said high single digits and we've been running high single digits for the 1st 6 months.

Speaker 7

But we caution that if we elected to begin selling mortgages in the secondary market rather than holding them, That number would go down. We have made a decision, in fact, we made the decision probably a month ago, maybe a little longer than a month ago To position ourselves to start selling some mortgages in the secondary market and take the gain on sales and that's strictly just the rate they're coming on the books at Versus the gain on sale, we think the gain on sale is a better proposition for us now and we've got other uses for the cash, Even if that's paying down borrowings, either way, it's good for the organization. That takes a while to put in place. And I'd say where we sit today is probably 30% of our origination volume is available to be sold. So we're packaging that up and we'll begin the sales process.

Speaker 7

We had to get back in front of all our secondary market participants and let them know we were back and re grease those skids. So as a result of that decision, I think loan growth will moderate a little bit for the remainder of the year. We'll feel some of that impact probably in the latter stages of Q3 and the full effect of it in Q4 as We prepare to sell more of those mortgages that we originate. So going forward, maybe second half of the year, what we said in January was If we did that, we might grow at 5%, 6%, kind of mid single digits versus high. So I think that's probably a safe number for the second half of the year.

Speaker 5

Thank you for taking my question guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 6

I would add,

Speaker 4

the rest of the loan portfolio, In other words, other than warehouse and mortgage, it's really interesting to see how reasonably steady the demand has been. What has fallen off seems to be the very large expensive real estate projects. They're not quite what they were. But the rest of the loan market seems to be reasonably steady in spite of higher interest rates and talk about recessions, etcetera. And I guess we attribute that to the economy in Texas and Oklahoma, which are 2 economies that David just mentioned As maintained their steady growth.

Speaker 4

So, so far, we see loan growth being pretty doggone decent.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Could I I just want to follow-up on Michael's question about The loans maturing over the next 12 months, if we exclude the floating rate book, Just do you have a sense how much actually will mature in the next 12 months in the fixed rate book and what those yields are?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think when we looked at we looked at in general when I said the $5,000,000,000 going to be mature next 12 months And I think more than half going to 1st 6 months and later. And the rate like when we calculated rate, it was 5.5%, 5.6% average on those. And I know that we have mentioned about 41% fixed mortgages. So I think I would say 41 would be fixed that's going to be maturing next 12 months.

Speaker 3

I don't have any specific, but we can get back with you on specific On the fixed. Okay.

Speaker 8

And it's likely the Fed will increase rates Deposit rate increase.

Speaker 2

We've talked about increasing rates, right? Right now, probably The highest that we pay on our money market account, unless it's there's always some bigger Have a negotiated type of deal, but for the most part, we pay 3% and that's if you have over $250,000 The rest of our CD rates Are pretty low. I think that we have come up with a CD special rate for 7% that's I'm sorry, 7 months, That's 5%. So we do have that. You would think that a lot of money would have flown into that account.

Speaker 2

I think it's probably about $1,000,000,000 I would have thought that more money would have gone into that. But our cost of funds right now, Our total cost of funds when you add everything into it and that's Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings, Federal Reserve borrowings, Interest on deposits is 1.55 percent. And when you look at just our total deposits, Our cost of funds are 0.94%. And when you look at just the interest on deposits, not including Federal Home Loan Bank and not including the non interest bearing deposits, it's 1.51%. So our cost of funds Are extremely low.

Speaker 2

We have a good core business, I think. I heard Also back in Collin talked a while ago about 85% of our business is consumer and accounts, but it probably on a Percent basis of deposits also that coming through.

Speaker 3

About 53% of the dollar wise is consumer and 47 commercial.

Speaker 2

But the commercial represents about 15% of our accounts, 47% of the deal. So our mix of money is good core. We haven't chased the money. I mean, it could have been very easy for us to increase like some of the other banks $1,000,000,000 or $2,000,000,000 by going out and buying broker deposits This quarter, we didn't do that. Our true intent is to try to pay down Federal Home Loan Bank to a certain amount.

Speaker 2

We talked about a while ago reducing maybe the amount of home loans that we're keeping on our books and selling. So It's our goal to really reduce some of the higher cost money and our real focus is deposits and that is to go out where The last 2 years, all we really hammered in everybody's mind was loans, loans, loans. What we're hammering right now are deposits, deposit. So as this thing turns around, our goal is really to reduce some of our borrowings and to really go after core, core deposits. It's a long answer around a question, are you going to raise rates with a 25 basis points increase.

Speaker 2

And I guess the answer is right now, We probably just would be watching it. It didn't say we wouldn't, but we feel like our deposits have stabilized over the last 3 weeks. We don't see much change, dollars 100,000,000 maybe lower at the end of the week and $100,000,000 $150,000,000 Again, at the beginning of the week. So we really don't see a whole lot of changes. So really a lot of it just depends as long as our deposits stabilize, that's where we're at.

Speaker 2

We've never really We've never really run after higher cost money. I think it's hard once you do to get out of it. So we really don't want to jump into that. So that's kind of our story.

Speaker 8

And just based on that the outlook for the margin in the second half of the year?

Speaker 2

I looked at the model and I looked at 12 months. I can probably pull my notes out and see what it does in 6 months. 12 months, we do know that it does go more toward a 3% net interest margin. I'd have to look and see in the 6 months what it is.

Speaker 3

Yes. And the other thing that's kind of Hard to answer specifically. We have the loan pending Lone Star acquisition coming in with their loans. So that's going to impact too. But like We were saying in 12 months definitely up.

Speaker 3

I would say in 6 months flat and maybe up, but it all depends on Lonestar as well. And Peter, I know you asked me about the fixed versus variable IFRS on my information. So we have a little bit more than 50% of fixed kind of repriced out of 5,000,000,000 Fixed rate loans, it's right, about 50%, a little bit.

Speaker 8

Over the next 12 months?

Speaker 6

Yes. But out

Speaker 3

of $5,000,000,000 that we said that the cash flowing?

Speaker 2

I found some numbers, Peter, on the 6 months. Our 6 month projection Is to go to around again, this probably isn't exactly accurate because of the Because this is flat. That's no growth in deposits or I mean no growth in loans, deposits or anything like that. This is just straight. It's about a 286 in 6 months.

Speaker 3

And that's not including Lonestar?

Speaker 2

No, that's 2.86 to 2.90 and Lonestar should improve and help us a little bit.

Speaker 8

Thanks, David.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Dave Rochester with Compass Point. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 7

Good morning.

Operator

Just to make sure

Speaker 5

I heard you right, so it's 286 DIMM 6 months from now that includes the rate hike, but no Lone Star, is that right?

Speaker 2

Let me see if that includes the rate hike. I think it does.

Speaker 4

It does not include Lonestar.

Speaker 2

It doesn't include Lonestar, but it does include the rate hike.

Speaker 5

It does. Okay. Just one hike and no cuts or anything like that? That's the only change in Fed funds?

Speaker 2

And 6 months is we're projecting the prime to be 8.5.

Speaker 8

Because we

Speaker 3

don't expect that For the at least the next 6 months.

Speaker 5

Got you. And then so this time next year or maybe 3Q of next year, back half of next year, you're thinking 3% plus on the margin. Is that right?

Speaker 4

We are. Yes, we are.

Speaker 5

Okay. Great. Appreciate that. On expenses real quick, appreciate all the guidance I was first wondering if you thought that 3Q range, the $134,000,000 to $136,000,000 was good for 4Q as well, ex The Lone Star deal. And then what are you guys expecting for the size of that Lone Star expense base that you're going to bring in?

Speaker 3

So on the $134,000,000 $136,000,000 I think that's a good run rate because we're going to have full 3 months of First Capital Bank on it. And if you look at I think that's going to stay the same for the Q4. I mean, it might change a little bit, but I think that's going to be same guidance for the Q4. On the first I'm sorry, on Lonestar, I know we're going to have one time expenses, But I think the Lonestar brings additional on the quarterly basis Around, I think between $7,000,000 to $10,000,000 quarterly expenses before we get some savings.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. And then just one on capital. How are you guys thinking about the buyback here At the current stock price, which is a little bit higher than we were buying this past quarter. And then just given your thoughts on M and A and growth going forward, Are you thinking this 2Q pace for buybacks is more what you would expect or could you accelerate that just given you've got a whole lot of excess capital here? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, we have if you saw, we have for the last two quarters bought back how many about 1,000,000 shares, 1,000,000 shares. We definitely think the stock is too cheap. At the same time, we're always focused on we wanted to increase dividends and we still want to do Some mergers and acquisitions. So I think a lot of it depends on our activity and M and A.

Speaker 2

If we don't do the M and A, you'll probably see more of the probably the buybacks. If you're seeing M and A, that may not be as much.

Speaker 3

Okay. And then maybe just on

Speaker 5

M and A, what do you guys think in terms of conversation levels or activity in the market at this I know some folks see purchase accounting marks as a big headwind. You guys list a lot of reasons why banks are going to want to combine. Was curious, what is the opportunities that you're looking at right now and how active is are those banks and conversations and whatnot that you're seeing?

Speaker 2

I think M and A activities increased significantly.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Brady Gailey with KBW, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 7

I just wanted to ask about credit Quality, we saw some noise there in the quarter, but all the numbers are still very low. I know a lot of the noise related to acquisitions and previously acquired loans as well. But when you take a step back and look at Credit quality for Prosperity, are there any concerning trends or are you guys still pretty confident on where you stand with credit quality?

Speaker 4

I would say we're confident. Most of what deterioration you've seen as a result of loans that joined us. And there may be a bit more of that to go, Not an overwhelming total by any means, but there might be a bit more. We've actually been a little bit surprised How well the quality has held up once again given the higher interest rates and the earning pressure that puts on borrowers. But we see it as steady right now.

Speaker 4

We don't see really any red flags.

Speaker 7

Yes, Brady, this is Kevin. The loss we took was on a legacy deal that former structured CRE portfolio that you're Several tenants, a couple within the quarter, and we moved to Foreclose and sell that loan in a hurry, figuring the first loss is the best loss. We ran a process and settled on a buyer that paid $17,000,000 for it, so it's a $15,000,000 loss. That structured CRE portfolio, which was at 1 point above $2,000,000,000 in total is now down to $305,700,000 So it's come down Materially, the amount of office exposure left out of that portfolio is $126,300,000 So it's not much Left in terms of office exposure and the remaining office exposure that we do have is all current and paying. So At this point, it seems like an outlier.

Speaker 7

That doesn't mean something can't go wrong somewhere. But if I was to just say, if somebody said, where do you think the risk is in this $40,000,000,000 balance sheet? I'd look right into that $126,300,000 worth of Former legacy structured CRE portfolio, even though it's still performing well, Class B office is not a great place to be. Fortunately, we've worked it down to the $126,000,000 But outside of that and that portfolio is still doing just fine today, but

Speaker 2

I think that's where the risk I think what Kevin is saying is real accurate. And I'd also say that, again, this loan never even hit the Pass through sheet or It's never passed through.

Speaker 7

Never passed through.

Speaker 2

Or even on our deal. And I think that probably some other banks would have taken it And held out and maybe try to sell it over a year or 2 years. And we're just not like that. We took it. We sold it.

Speaker 2

We got what we thought we could get for it. And we usually try to get all of our non accruals or nonperforming off of the books just like the we saw $62,000,000 Non performing this time increased significantly over $20,000,000 came from First Capital and we intend to get that off. But the other two loans, The $18,000,000 that we talked about, probably we already have a contract on a deal that's going to take out most of that, majority of it, 2 thirds of that, we already have a contract on that. So we sell it and get out of it. And by the way, there won't be that kind of loss.

Speaker 7

We did have nowhere near that kind of loss. Yes, as David said, this was an intra quarter event. This went from losing enough tenants to us for closing and us running a process and getting it moved off the books within a 90 day period of time inside of the 90 day period of time. All right. That's helpful.

Speaker 7

And then Lonestar has been pending regulatory approval for a while. I think In the press release, you'll talk about hoping to close that this quarter in 3Q. What's been the holdup with getting regulatory approval for that deal?

Speaker 2

Up until this point, it really had been held up at the Department of Justice. Primarily, it was based on 1 of the banking centers are branch banks that they felt like that we were they didn't know if they were going to let us keep or not. This is really a branch bank in a town of how many? 9,000. 9,000.

Speaker 2

So we fought that for the longest time, And we finally, what, 2 weeks ago or a week ago, finally got clearance on that that the DOJ let us go through with it. And so really from that point was at the FDIC, our contacts with the FDIC, we felt that We really would get it done in just a few days. It's taken longer than that because now most everything, even though the size of it and the small size of it, It still has to go to Washington. I don't know, maybe they were dealing with the Pac West deal last night and the week before, I don't know. But We're really hoping to get it.

Speaker 2

We should get it. We don't know of anything that why it shouldn't be, let me say that.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Mona Gazzoio with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 9

I apologize if I missed it, but can you talk about what your models assume For terminal deposit betas as well as the mix of NIB deposits?

Speaker 3

Yes. Our beta for the Interest bearing deposits 36 basis points. That's what we use in the model. And but if you look at our deposit over this Interest rate cycle on interest bearing deposits was 27 basis points. So we're running below the model that we have for the Deposit, interest bearing deposits betas.

Speaker 9

Got it. And the NIB mix?

Speaker 3

Non interest bearing? None. I think it's the same.

Speaker 2

I don't think we show a decrease in it probably. On the model, no. It's just flat In fact, really our non interest bearing as a percentage of deposits has really gone up this quarter, hasn't it?

Speaker 3

Yes. Compared to the Q1, yes, it went up to 37.9

Speaker 2

So actually our non interest bearing is really held up better than most of our other accounts.

Speaker 9

All right, perfect. And then maybe just to approach some of the prior questions in a different way. On Deposit betas, I think you've always had a significantly lower deposit beta than your peers. And Maybe you can talk about if rates stay higher for longer, what do you think about your ability to keep that spread relative to your peers? Or As rates stay higher for longer and loan growth continues, do you see that spread compressing?

Speaker 2

I don't think so. I mean, this we've been pretty consistent. If anything, our models really After 12 months or after 24 months, so really some crazy stuff, some really high net interest margins, I would say. If that becomes true, we may give more of that back to the customer. And so it just but basically from what we're seeing In the time horizons of 12 24 months, I pretty much think we are where we are.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, otherwise saying it, as we reprice our loans and reprice We repriced our 1 portfolio $13,000,000,000 generating 2.07 percent that would help us from the Assets interest earning assets. So we could increase the our cost of deposit, but save the margin, protect the margin. It's just this timing issue for us. And As we improve on the asset side, we could give a little bit on the deposit side, but still protect the margin.

Speaker 4

Right.

Speaker 7

We need a Fed pause.

Speaker 9

Got it, got it. Makes sense. And maybe last question, just as we think about the securities book, Should we think about that yield remaining flat as you repurpose your securities into loans? Or as more of the back book sort of runs off at a lower rate, should we still see that weighted average rate on those securities rise in the coming quarters?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that if you look at security, we're not buying any new securities. So we're not repricing those securities to higher yield. All we've discussed, we're using That cash flow, 1st of all, getting higher yielding loans or if we have any funds available, we're going to be paying down, Both of them very accretive to their net income and the margin from our standpoint. So from the rate on the secured, I don't think it's going to be significant change What we feel right now?

Speaker 8

Got it. All

Speaker 2

the re pricing, when you look at what our yield is on securities and look at what our Yield is in loans and you look at what the yield, what we're getting today, you can see how significant that is. It just takes us time To turn your ship around

Speaker 4

a little bit?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean the spread we're getting on every dollar we get from the in the security on the loans we're getting 5.5%, 6.5% spread only if you put them on new loans. Or you

Speaker 2

could just pay your federal loan by That's why getting the You're studying over 3% right there. Yes, 3.5

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Brandon King at Truist. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Brandon.

Speaker 6

Good morning. So yes, could you give us some commentary What you're seeing in regards to prepayments in your CRE book, it seems like with this interest rate environment, the Average life of loans could be extended just given the dynamics around that.

Speaker 4

Well, I think that's right. We're not seeing excessive Prepayments on loans?

Speaker 7

Yes. I think what we'll continue to see is multifamily deals that stabilize Because the inversion of the curve can go out to the agencies and get a lower longer term fixed rate loan Then they might have had from our floating rate perspective. So we'll continue to see some pay down there. But Tim is absolutely right. We look across the entire book, it's a slowdown of the more traditional kind of deals.

Speaker 7

These big multifamily deals have an option to go out And lock up non recourse debt off the inverted curve.

Speaker 4

Correct.

Speaker 2

I still think once all these rates quit rising, It always comes back around. There always becomes competition and everybody starts trying to undercut you and Trying to get better rates from different maybe even non banks. And so I think you'll see that in the future as rates stabilize and And maybe even consider coming down next year or year. I don't think rates are going to go down as much as everybody else thinks are going to go down. Think rates are going to stay higher for longer.

Speaker 2

However, there's always that competition and things always turn around. It's just that's just the way it is.

Speaker 6

Got it. And do you think that potentially limits the benefit of the fixed rate repricing Just given how we have the contractual maturities in place, but obviously you assume a certain weighted average life of those loans. But in that dynamic could kind of limit that Benefit at least over the next year?

Speaker 7

Now the maturities are still the maturities. It's an opportunity for a rate increase.

Speaker 4

I think so, yes.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then going back to the NIM guidance, I believe you said 2.86 $2,900,000 in 6 months. What are you assuming as far as paying down borrowings within that math?

Speaker 3

I think in our guidance, it's our borrowing stays flat in our model.

Speaker 6

Okay. So no benefit there is kind of the

Speaker 5

way you think about it, right?

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's all I had. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Charlotte Rasche for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking the time to participate in our call today. We appreciate your Support of our company and we will continue to work on building shareholder value.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Prosperity Bancshares Q2 2023
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