TriNet Group Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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July 26, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Afternoon, and welcome to the TriNet Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Alex Bauer, Head of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon. My name is Alex Bauer, and I am TriNet's Head of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to TriNet's 2023 Second Quarter Conference Call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Burton M.

Speaker 1

Goldfield and our CFO, Kelly Tuminelli. Before we begin, I would like to address our use of forward looking statements and non GAAP financial measures. Please note that today's discussion will include our 2023 3rd quarter and full year financial outlook and other statements that are not historical in nature or predictive in nature or depend upon or refer to future events or conditions such as our expectations, estimates, predictions, strategies, beliefs or other statements that might be considered forward looking. These forward looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and are inherently subject to risks, Uncertainties and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict and that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements being made today or in the future. Except as may be required by law, we do not undertake to update any of these statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise.

Speaker 1

We encourage you to review our most recent public filings with the SEC, including our 10 ks and 10 Q filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that may affect our future results or the market price of our stock. In addition, our discussion today will include non GAAP financial measures, including our forward looking guidance for adjusted net income per diluted share. For reconciliations of our non GAAP financial measures to our GAAP financial results, please see our earnings release, 10 Q filings or our 10 ks filing, which are available on our website or through the SEC website. With that, I will turn the call over to Burton. Burton?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Alex. We drove strong financial results in the Q2. I am pleased to report that we exceeded Our key performance indicators with respect to new sales, customer retention, customer satisfaction and expense control. TriNet achieved financial results that were in line or exceeded our guidance by delivering differentiated solutions to our select verticals. We were rewarded in Q2 with annual contract value growth or ACV up 26% year over year.

Speaker 2

This represents a year over year acceleration in new customers putting their trust in TriNet and adopting our solution In the Q2, the Q1 trend where ACV growth was up 20% year over year has been surpassed in Q2. Over the past year, we have focused on enhancing our service capabilities. Our enhanced service delivered a sizable increase In our Net Promoter Score or NPS, we are now forecasting a more than 4 point year over year improvement in retention when comparing fiscal year 'twenty three to fiscal year 'twenty two. Additionally, customer net hiring or CIE was net Positive in the quarter as June came in strong. Overall, I am pleased with our execution in the second quarter and our prospects for the remainder of 2023 and beyond.

Speaker 2

This momentum supports our confidence that TriNet offers tremendous value. As such, I am pleased to announce that our Board has authorized an incremental $1,000,000,000 to our already existing Share repurchase program. You will hear more about this program from Kelly. Total revenues grew 1% year over year at the Top end of our guidance, while professional service revenues declined 3% at the lower end of our guidance. GAAP earnings per share increased 2% year over year, outperforming the top end of guidance by $0.42 Adjusted net income per share increased 1% year over year, outperforming the top end of our guidance by $0.34 We finished the 2nd quarter with 334,000 WSEs, representing 2% Sequential growth quarter over quarter.

Speaker 2

We are pleased with our 2nd quarter sequential WSE volume growth. As noted earlier, we saw positive contributions from each of the underlying drivers to WSE volume growth, including new sales, retention and CIE. We achieved strong second quarter new sales performance. New ACV grew 26% year over year. Direct sales capacity increased materially Based on hiring and improved sales rep retention, our cohort of experienced direct reps Grew 19% year over year.

Speaker 2

We are benefiting today from this growth in capacity, but will benefit even more during the fall selling season as this trend of increased mature reps continues. The application of significant new technology is also adding to the trend of accelerated ACV growth. We are the industry leader with respect to applying technology across all our business functions and sales is no different. TriNet has always gone to market with our vertical strategy. However, technology is now helping us To refine our customer targeting process, we have deepened our understanding of our verticals through the application of our proprietary Customer Lifetime Value Analysis or CLTV.

Speaker 2

CLTV has provided our sales team with an improved prospect targeting roadmap based on highly specific attributes. While CLTV gives us a deeper understanding of who our target customer is, Our marketing team incorporated a number of machine learning tools to better understand the prospects intent to buy. Qualified leads are only passed to sales when intent to buy is strong. There is less wasted time by reps on opportunities that ultimately won't close. The outcome is these leads close at a very high rate.

Speaker 2

Additional efforts around optimization have led to positive results in terms of speed to quote and reduction in paperwork, which has created more time for sales reps to interact with prospects. We have found the prospects who understand the value Of all our products and services upfront beyond just price have a higher propensity to buy and a greater CLTV. Earlier this year, we acknowledged that our sales capacity was constrained. We also said that our new sales would benefit this year and next From a maturing sales force. As we have passed the midpoint of 2023, I am pleased to say that we have made progress On both fronts, our first half sales momentum and enhanced sales capacity allows us to forecast a second half Year on year ACV growth rate that will exceed our already impressive first half growth rate.

Speaker 2

My added confidence in this momentum is bolstered by what we currently see in our July ACV performance. As of today, July is forecasted to be dramatically higher than last year and exceed our internal plan. Turning to retention, we are seeing a strong year over year improvement. The factors that drove strong first quarter retention performance Continued into the Q2, our customers benefited from our industry leading service experience, which is evidenced by our outstanding first contact resolution and average speed to answer and is reflected in our NPS score. We continue to offer value added services that are differentiating the customer experience.

Speaker 2

We are now raising our 2023 customer retention forecast See effort of over 3,000 TriNetters every day to help our SMB customers navigate the complexities of running a business In today's world, I want to take this opportunity to thank the amazing TriNet team. Moving to CIE in the Q2, we saw customer hiring turn positive for the first time since the Q3 of 2022. In Q2, all but one of our verticals saw net hiring. The exception was technology, which was modestly negative, Yet improved over recent quarters. Tech companies with fewer than 50 employees net hired in Q2.

Speaker 2

We saw a broad net positive CIE result from this specific smaller company cohort. However, the trend of larger tech companies contracting their workforces persisted during the quarter, albeit at a much slower rate In Q1, we are encouraged by the net hiring growth we saw in the second quarter. However, we remain in our customer hiring outlook throughout the rest of 2023. Our conservatism is based on the Uneven performance we've experienced over the past 4 quarters with respect to CIE. Before I pass the call over to Kelly, I want to reiterate TriNet had a strong second quarter where we exceeded our KPIs with respect to new sales, Customer retention, customer satisfaction and expense management.

Speaker 2

We are well positioned for the balance of the fiscal year 2023.

Speaker 3

Kelly? Thank you, Burton. In the second quarter, TriNet successfully navigated the evolving economic environment and delivered strong operating and financial results. In the areas of our business we control, we once again performed very well. We accelerated new sales growth, we kept more of our customers longer, and we remain disciplined in our expense management.

Speaker 3

As Burton said, our visibility into Q3 indicates a continuation and acceleration of these trends. Given this performance and outlook, we believe that our company has been undervalued. I'll be wrapping up my 3rd year as TriNet's CFO in the fall. And during that time, I've gained deep insights around Our cash flow forecast, the predictability and strength of our financial performance and the levers used to manage and grow our business. I also believe our shareholders and bondholders place a high importance on transparency with respect to our financial policy or philosophy, Capital structure and our deployment of capital.

Speaker 3

While our financial priorities have not changed, this is a good opportunity To reiterate our priorities and provide some additional granularity on guidelines to our investors, 1st and foremost, We will always prioritize investing in organic growth. We will maintain an appropriate cash buffer as well as capacity under our credit facility to ensure prudent access to liquidity if and when necessary for business operations. We will manage our balance sheet efficiently with an approximately 1.5 to 2 times adjusted EBITDA leverage target, Still leaving open the opportunity to vary outside from time to time. When that happens, we will always have plans to bring into our targeted range within a reasonable window of time. And on average, we intend to return at least 75% of free cash flow annually to our shareholders or deploy to accretive M and A.

Speaker 3

With this philosophy in mind, I'm pleased to announce that the Board of Directors has increased Our share repurchase authorization by $1,000,000,000 resulting in a total authorization of approximately $1,400,000,000 Subject to market conditions, we would anticipate executing on up to $1,000,000,000 of that in 2023. A repurchase program of this size will require incremental financing. And given our strong financial performance as well as current market conditions, We believe we are well positioned to execute on incremental financing during the Q3. Finally, related to our capital return to shareholders, We are formally exploring the implementation of a recurring dividend in 2024 as another tool to meet our overall capital strategy. We believe that these steps combined with our expected operational and financial performance will help achieve the valuations warranted for our business.

Speaker 3

Now let's turn to our financial review of Q2 and outlook for the remainder of the year. In the 2nd quarter, Total revenues grew 1%, in line with the top end of our guidance. Total revenue in the quarter was supported by pricing And health participation rates, but offset by the year over year decline in volume. We finished the 2nd quarter With approximately 334,000 worksite employees down 7% year over year, but up 2% sequentially. 2nd quarter WSE volumes were lower year over year, largely due to the cumulative impact of lower CIE in the last Half of twenty twenty two and first half of twenty twenty three, which did not offset our normal client attrition.

Speaker 3

That said, we did experience CIE growth in the Q2, particularly the month of June, which exceeded our recent experience. As Burton noted, we continue to see strong customer retention and we are now forecasting a more than 4 point improvement year over year. Taken together, these were the underlying drivers of our sequential WSE volume growth. Professional services revenue declined 3% in line with the lower end of our guidance driven by our overall decline in volumes. Insurance revenue grew 1% year over year Due to continued strong participation and annual inflationary rate increases offsetting our overall volume declines, Insurance costs grew 2% year over year and included positive prior period development in both workers' compensation and health.

Speaker 3

As a result, our insurance cost ratio was 84%, 3 points lower than the high end of our guidance and slightly higher year over year. Although we saw some favorable prior period development in health this quarter, we are also observing health cost increases, particularly in pharmacy costs and in facility outpatient procedures. Utilization rates or the number of medical visits or pharmacy scripts We're in line with our overall forecast and represented more normalized pre pandemic utilization rates. With respect to workers' comp, this quarter's prior period development related to a true up of experience for prior accident years and was the main contributor to the outperformance. Turning to operating expenses, we continue to focus our incremental spend on supporting new sales and customer service, and we did so while effectively managing all of our general and administrative expenses.

Speaker 3

Overall, operating expenses grew 7% in the quarter, in line with our plan. Interest earned from our investments and operating cash Continued to benefit from the current interest rate environment. During the quarter, we generated $20,000,000 in interest income. The positive prior period development across workers' comp and health, expense management and higher interest income Translated to solid earnings performance. In the quarter, we earned $1.38 in GAAP net income per share, Exceeding the top end of our guidance by $0.42 and we earned $1.74 in adjusted net income per share, exceeding the top end of our guidance by $0.34 During the quarter, we generated $86,000,000 of corporate operating cash flow and ended the Q2 with $482,000,000 in corporate cash on our balance sheet.

Speaker 3

The sequential decline And our cash was driven by a $295,000,000 repayment of our credit facility, which occurred in April. On the capital allocation front, We repurchased $9,000,000 or approximately 162,000 shares during the Q2. Now I'll turn to financial guidance starting with Q3. Given our 2nd quarter volume performance led by lower CIE, positive new sales and improved retention, We are forecasting 3rd quarter year over year total revenues to be in the range of down 1% to flat. We expect professional service revenue to be in the range of down 2% to up 1%.

Speaker 3

We expect our insurance cost ratio in the range of 89% to 87.5%, reflecting both the seasonality of our insurance performance And increasing health cost inflation, our 3rd quarter estimate of GAAP net income per diluted share is in the range of $0.93 to 1 point While our Q3 estimate for adjusted earnings per diluted share is in the range of $1.25 to 1 $0.50 This year over year decline in our earnings per share estimates is primarily driven by our expectation for higher insurance Now turning to our full year financial guidance. Regarding total revenues, we are leaving our guidance range unchanged with full year total revenues forecast To be up 1% to 2%. For professional service revenues, given the cumulative impact from lower CIE in the first half, We are lowering our range by one point. The impact from lower CIE is being partly offset by higher retention and sales volume leading to full year professional service revenue growth in the range of flat to up 2%. Turning to our insurance cost ratio, We're lowering our full year ICR by 1.5% to 87% to 85.5%.

Speaker 3

Through the reduction of our forecasted ICR, we are passing through the 2nd quarter outperformance in workers' compensation and positive prior period development in Health, we are forecasting normalized health utilization and we are factoring in higher health cost inflation Cross both provider and pharma prices. The change in interest rates and the shape of the yield curve is driving an increase to interest income to $70,000,000 for the year. As a result of these changes coupled with our disciplined expense management, we are raising our GAAP net income per diluted share Forecast by $0.90 at the midpoint to a new range of $4.93 to $5.71 Regarding our adjusted net income per diluted share guidance, we are raising the range by $0.78 at the midpoint to $6.25 to $7.05 per share. Please note, as it relates to our interest income and earnings per share guidance, We have not included any pro form a impacts from incremental share repurchases or debt issuance. We have included an assumption around adequate share repurchase in order to offset the dilution from stock compensation consistent with our prior practice.

Speaker 3

To wrap things up, we're encouraged by the improving trends in our business through the first half of twenty twenty three. While the uncertainty in the economic environment has been difficult for us and especially our customers, we remain focused on servicing these customers with excellence and continuing to deliver on our commitments. Now, I'll turn it to Burton for his final remarks. Burton?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kelly. We are seeing momentum across our business despite the challenging economic environment. We are keeping more of our customers for longer. Our sales organization is delivering a strong year on year growth rate In new ACV that continues to accelerate in Q3, and we are encouraged by our customer hiring, while still early, We are starting to see some positive indications that CIE may begin to normalize. We believe our stock represents Significant value when compared to our long term outlook.

Speaker 2

I am particularly pleased that our Board has authorized an incremental $1,000,000,000 to our already existing share repurchase program. I look forward to reporting to you on Q3 results In the fall, operator?

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from Tien tsin Huang with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good

Speaker 5

to hear from you. Always appreciate the time and the updates. Just I guess I'll ask as always on volume, if that's okay, Burton and Kelly. Just on the Burton, you talked about retention improving 4 points and The change in existing, it sounds like it's turning, tech is getting a little bit better. Clearly, you're focusing on sales and productivity.

Speaker 5

So can we expect Volume growth to improve from here, from what we saw in the second quarter, just curious what's implied.

Speaker 2

6% year over year. Retention is great. It's starting to get to the all time lows. So I do believe that MPS, The average speed to answer and everything else we're doing from our great service team is working. So the answer is yes from my standpoint.

Speaker 2

I expect you to see continued, WSE growth and I was obviously pleased with the 2% growth quarter to quarter and I'm hoping to see additional growth in Q3 and Q4, but I'll let Kelly Give her perspective on that. Yes.

Speaker 3

And Kenjin, I'll say the guidance does assume sequential WSE growth As we go throughout the year, it's a combination of all the things Burton talked about, strong new sales, Good retention for the rest of the year and modestly positive CIE.

Speaker 5

Perfect. Thank you for sharing that. Just on the my follow-up then, maybe going through your prepared remarks, Kelly, Just thinking about visibility maybe between the professional services outlook, which I think you lowered by a point, you explained that and then the ICR by a point and a half You're working through some of the prior period development as well. I'm just trying to get a sense here in terms of conservatism versus visibility Across those two lines, what's being factored in there?

Speaker 3

It's a great question. On professional service Revenue, it really is just our best estimate based on the volumes that we're seeing right now. Regarding the insurance side and insurance Like I mentioned, we are seeing increased provider cost inflation. So we are doing our best to assume What that looks like into the future, no crystal ball, but things are coming in kind of as expected from an overall utilization perspective. Not really much more than that really.

Speaker 3

It's pretty straightforward.

Speaker 5

Okay. No, it's good. Just coming in as expected is the comment Thank you for the time.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tien Tsin.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, good afternoon. Hey, Ed. I wanted to first ask hey, Burton. First question I wanted to ask was on sales force growth. I think you said experienced reps are up 19% year over year.

Speaker 4

Just wondering, first of all, how you kind of define that? And maybe what's driving that growth? Is it people that you hired late last year that are getting into a more productive state? Is it adding new reps In an environment that's maybe easing a little bit from a talent perspective, just kind of overall thoughts on sales force headcount growth and some definitional questions there.

Speaker 2

Great question, Andrew. So it is directly related to 2 things. 1 is retention And the second is the maturation of the sales force. That calculation is based on being here at least 6 months Where they start to deliver results for us. So you're seeing reps staying longer and they're not Aging out and leaving and you're also seeing some of the hiring we started last year obviously once they pass the 6 months mark They become part of that equation.

Speaker 2

So, look, I talked early in the year about the fact that capacity was well below what my expectation Under new sales leadership with some of the actions we've taken around optimization of both the marketing and the sales process, We're seeing that come to roost in terms of not only ACV, which is important, but also in capacity as we move forward.

Speaker 4

Great. That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, I wanted to check-in on Zenefits. I think Last quarter, you mentioned, onboarding or launching the integrated open market product. Just wondering how that's going.

Speaker 4

And then also within that question, it looks like the average HCM users declined quite a bit year over year. Anything to call out there?

Speaker 2

Yes. So again, really good question. The Zenefits platform is doing very well as our core platform for the next generation. The integrated open market or IOM solution is in the market. It's still a small percentage of the revenue, but we're also looking at variance of other products leveraging the Ben admin capabilities that Zenith has brought us as well as their core platform.

Speaker 2

So ultimately, my goal was to be breakeven in 2024. We are well into achieving that goal And we are hoping to be able to build the barbell out, so we'll be able to attract and retain more of those customers. But the primary focus right now He is building and developing on the Zenefits platform for the next generation to frankly leapfrog some of the technology in the market today.

Speaker 3

Yes. And Andrew, one thing I would just add to that on the hiring, your comment on the users is we are seeing in the HRIS Platform, some of the similar dynamics in the customer base and customer hiring. So the first half hiring Definitely was pressured similar to the PEO side.

Speaker 4

Makes sense. Thanks to both of you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Jared Levine with TD Cohen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. I just want to clarify in terms of the

Speaker 3

Yes. Jared, this is Kelly. Let me take that one. We did not assume the full quarter CIE to be negative last quarter. So we were slightly below our CIE expectations.

Speaker 3

I think the clarification is April May were pressured. June came in better than expected. So June looked very, very positive as we saw interns, No workers, things like that come on board, and we're very encouraged by the trends we see there, but we did see softness in April May. So really cumulatively when I look at the full first half and really looked at the rest of the year, we're being Cautious on CIE for the rest of the year, just assuming very modestly positive due to the fact that it's been so uneven month

Speaker 6

Got it. And then in terms of the current pricing environment for PEO clients, is more discounting required to make that ROI more attractive For prospective clients currently?

Speaker 3

Yes. We our pricing process, is very similar. From a From a benefits perspective, yes, we price to risk. On the professional service revenue side, everyone is taking a little bit longer to make decisions in this environment for sure. We've run specials from time to time, but I do think that We've gotten really great adoption.

Speaker 3

So, we're sticking with our tenants. When you look year over year, our rate Our contribution to professional service revenues was low single digits, so kind of low to mid single digit is the range that we

Speaker 6

If I could sneak in one more, are you still expecting around $50,000,000 for benefits for FY 2023?

Speaker 3

It might be a little bit pressured from that, but I think the big point to rotate on is that I think we had $11,000,000 in the quarter. So if you just think of that from a run rate perspective, obviously, that would be very difficult to hit the $50,000,000 on a full year basis. But what we are doing is we're trying to manage

Operator

The next question is from Kyle Peterson with Needham. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the questions here. I want to start on professional services. Looking at kind of the midpoint of the 3Q and the 4Q guide, it seems like you guys are Expecting a little bit of a dip in 3Q and then some improvement in the Q4, at least looking at things on a year over year basis.

Speaker 6

So just wanted to get some more color on what's driving the expected strength? Is that some of the momentum and better trends that you guys saw in June? Or is there anything else in terms of the pipeline that you guys want to call out that

Speaker 3

Well, Kyle, probably The biggest thing driving it when you're looking year over year is if you think about 2022, we had really strong hiring in the first half And then it slowed down pretty precipitously, particularly in technology, and that's where we saw the biggest Pressure, so that is really driving the cumulative CIE impact is really what's driving the pressure just that along with Normal levels of attrition as well. But what I am looking at and you'll see that the guide does include sequential growth in Professional service revenue and that's really what I think we're trying to build on is really that sequential momentum.

Speaker 6

On the buyback, I think, great to see the authorization up by a pretty substantial amount. I know you guys bought back a fairly modest amount, I think you said $9,000,000 in the prepared remarks this past quarter. I just wanted to Get some color on how you guys are thinking about capital return moving forward. I guess just given like did you pause the buyback at any point During the 2Q, during some of the regional bank volatility or how should we think about the run rate of share repurchases,

Speaker 3

Jen, and I guess the way I would look at what we did in Q2 is we were very, very thoughtful about the best We needed to reshape our capital structure. We brought the Board of Directors along and evaluated the advantages and trade offs associated with the And I think the announcement of our intention to buy back an additional $1,000,000,000 and get $1,000,000,000 done By 2023, obviously subject to market conditions, is it actually achieves the scale and is in line with what we

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session and the conference has also now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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TriNet Group Q2 2023
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