Atlas Energy Solutions Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 1, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Record quarterly performance: Atlas delivered record total sales, volumes, net income of $71.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $92.8 million in Q2 despite volatile market conditions.
  • Three-pronged capital investment program is on time and on budget, including a 50% production capacity expansion, expansion of high-capacity logistics, and the Dune Express conveyor set to commence late 2024.
  • Atlas has secured over 6 million tons of production commitments for 2024—up from under 4 million at this time last year—and aims to contract 80% of its ~15 million ton capacity by year-end.
  • The Board increased the Q2 dividend by 33% to $0.20 per share (annualized yield 4.1%), with a $0.15 base and $0.05 variable dividend, and signaled potential for further dividend growth as CapEx declines.
  • Average mine‐gate price dipped from $46.45/ton to $44.21/ton in Q2, resulting in relatively flat product sales despite a 2.6% increase in volumes.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Atlas Energy Solutions Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Financial and Operational Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kyle Turlington, Vice President, Investor Thank you, Kyle.

Operator

You may begin.

Speaker 1

Hello, and welcome to the Atlas Energy Solutions conference call and webcast for the Q2 of 2023. With us today are Bud Brigham, Chairman and CEO John Turner, President and CFO and Chris Sciola, Chief Supply Chain Officer. Bud, John and Chris will be sharing their comments on the company's operational and financial performance for the Q2 of 2023, after which we will open the call for Q and A. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone This call will include forward looking statements as defined under the U. S.

Speaker 1

Securities laws. Such statements are based on the current information and management's expectations as of this statement and are not guarantees of future performance. Forward looking statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. As such, our actual outcomes and results could differ materially. You can learn more about these risks in our registration statement on Form 1 filed with the U.

Speaker 1

S. Securities and Exchange Commission on January 31, 2023, in connection with our initial public offering, our quarterly reports on Form 10Q, The registration statement on Form S-four will be filed in connection with our UPCE simplification transaction and other SEC filings. You should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements, and we undertake no obligation to update these forward looking statements. We will also make reference to certain non GAAP financial measures, such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow and other operating metrics and statistics. You will find the GAAP reconciliation comments and calculations in yesterday's Press release.

Speaker 1

With that said, I will turn the call over to Bud Brigham.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kyle, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for our Q2 conference call. We are very pleased with our Q2 operational and financial results. In spite of the volatile market conditions, our team delivered another record quarter across a range of operational and profitability metrics, including total sales, sales volumes, net income and adjusted EBITDA to name a few. We've made good progress reducing our operating costs on a per ton basis, in my view, with more to come. Our capital projects to grow our business are progressing as planned, on time and on budget.

Speaker 2

These capital are being made in 3 different areas of our business, including first, profit mining and production, With expansion, we will increase our production by approximately 50%. We believe we are already the largest proppant producer in the Permian and our growth will further enhance our scale, which is beneficial in order to reliably match the scale and efficiencies of our large scale customers. Our existing scale and associated reliability even prior to this expansion is one of the reasons we enjoy better stability in many of our peers. Looking forward in this regard, we've already secured commitments for over 6,000,000 tons of our production for 2024, which is well ahead of the less than 4,000,000 tons we had under contract for the 2023 fiscal year at this time last year. Given that our expansion increases our capacity by about 50% for 20 24 to around 15,000,000 tons, that's about 40% of our anticipated production capacity next Again, our anticipated production capacity for 2024 is up close to 50% From our current capacity of approximately 11,000,000 tons, we aim to have approximately 80% of our 2024 capacity committed by year end.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, we had that same goal entering 2023 and due to intense demand, we ended up more than 90% contracted. The second area of expansion and associated capital investment is our logistics offering, which includes our innovative high capacity trucking and delivery systems. Our logistics and delivery systems enhance efficiencies for the industry and as a result, we are growing our market share as Chris will discuss in a bit. This logistics offering is important as these trucking and delivery systems will seamlessly interface with our Dune Express conveyor system, which is expected to come online late in 2024. And that brings me to the 3rd area of capital investment in our business, Our Dune Express, which is really more similar to a midstream enterprise.

Speaker 2

Like the other capital investments, The Dune Express is on time and on budget with expected commencement in the Q4 of 2024. Whereas the plant expansion increases our production capacity by approximately 50% in 2024, We expect the Dune Express to further increase our revenues and cash flows in 2025. These major capital investment initiatives will begin winding down late this year with the completion of our plant expansion to the benefit of our discretionary cash flow in 2024, particularly given that the expansion should increase our production capacity by approximately 50%. And of course, our current capital investment commitments are expected to decline further Late in 2024, with the completion of our Dune Express construction. As a result, during 2024, we expect to experience a major revenue and cash flow increase and given the decline in CapEx, also an increase of our discretionary cash flow.

Speaker 2

This should continue in Q4 2024 and into 2025 with the anticipated completion and commencement of our Dune Express conveyor system. Again, the Dune Express is really more similar to a midstream type enterprise, which should further drive growth in our margins, distributions and cash flows during 2025, while significantly enhancing reliability and efficiencies. Importantly, our high capacity trucking in the Dune Xpress will also provide substantial environmental and societal benefits, particularly given the fact that we will be taking thousands of trucks off these dangerous commercial roads, while reducing emissions and potentially saving lives. Speaking of this, we just released a new video about the DuneXpress and our other initiatives, which is linked in our earnings release and our website. It's quite informative, so I encourage you to take a look at it.

Speaker 2

Regarding the macro environment that we're operating in, the Permian profit market remains very healthy. Although the downdraft in oil prices during the Q2 combined with economic uncertainty to delay the increase in the frac count that we expected, We continue to see frac fleets gain efficiencies, which are driving up sand consumption. For the Q3, our production remains sold out And particularly given how heavily contracted we are, we expect to remain busy throughout 2023. One thing investors should recognize is that there is stratification in the proppant and logistics markets, just as there is with operators, which is based both on the quality of the reserves and their operational capability, including scale, which is very important for driving reliability and efficiencies. The fact that we control the largest and highest quality proppant reserves and that we produce more profit than anyone in the Permian provides us with important advantages and makes our results less volatile.

Speaker 2

The unmatched scale and quality of our reserves, combined with our unique dredging operations, lowers our per unit cost structure, while enhancing our consistency and reliability to the benefit of our Permian customers. These are among the reasons we are so heavily contracted and that we don't always see price softness when other smaller and lower tier proppant producers do. But we remain encouraged by the overall market fundamentals and believe that we remain on a path to another record year for Permian sand consumption war. Assuming commodity prices remain attractive, this will continue to put pressure on Permian sand suppliers to keep up with the demands of Permian operators. Given our level of contracted volumes, which continues to grow, our exceptional margins and cash flows, We are comfortable putting forward a 2nd quarter dividend at $0.20 per share, which as of Friday's close equates to an annualized dividend yield of 4.1% and is 33% higher than our Q1 dividend and related distributions.

Speaker 2

The dividend is comprised of a $0.15 per share base dividend with a $0.05 per share variable dividend. As our CapEx investments wind down late this year and during the course of 2024, we expect our cash generation to increase, potentially providing more flexibility for our Board to grow the dividend, particularly during 2024 and beyond. As we continue to work with the Board to clearly define our dividend framework, the installation of a base dividend is a major step forward, providing enhanced visibility to our investors of our plans around the return of capital program. A quick summary note on our financial performance. As shown on Slide 12 in our deck, I'm proud of the fact that our margins are industry leading, even above that of the big three and the midstream peers, while our growth has and should continue to also lead the industry.

Speaker 2

In addition, our first two quarters as a public company should provide evidence To the stability and health of our business, which does not blow in the wind with oil prices like some in the oilfield service space, largely due to our scale and reliability, which matches up with our scaled high quality customer base. Over time, our exceptional and steady financial performance should be reflected in our stock price performance. And we have a positive development with regard to our corporate structure. As announced today, the Board unanimously approved an UPCE In connection with the simplification transaction, all outstanding shares of Class A common stock and all outstanding common units of our operating subsidiary will be exchanged on a one to one basis for shares of common stock of a newly formed public holding company and all outstanding shares of our Class B Diamond stock will be canceled. The transaction is expected to simplify our current corporate structure into a single class of shares, and we believe the simplicity and transparency of this new structure will be beneficial to our shareholders.

Speaker 2

Finally, I would like to address the recent news that the Department of Interior is seeking Advance a listing of the Dunes Sagebrush Lizard under the Endangered Species Act. We want to be very clear that we are prepared In the event that the Department of Interior eventually lifts the lizard, we have done many things proactively with regard to DSL conservation and to protect our business. Most importantly, by becoming a participant in the 2021 CCAA, which will allow us to operate just as we are today in the event of an ESA listing. Many of our customers are also participants in the 2021 CCIIA as well. As a result, in studying again, We believe we are very well positioned to continue to operate at full capacity even in the event of a listing.

Speaker 2

With that, I will turn the call over to Chris, our Chief Supply Chain Officer to provide you with an update regarding our trucking and logistics business.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Bud. Atlas Energy Solutions continues our evolution from a proppant manufacturer to a differentiated deliver to the blender solution. Our vertical integration into logistics underpins our long term strategy to continually expand our reach across the oilfield's value chain and offer disruptive solutions for our customers. We continue to grow our logistics fleet, having taken delivery of 66 trucks, which are operated by Atlas employees and all of our 323 high capacity trailers. Equipment deliveries are progressing on time and on budget.

Speaker 3

We expect to reach our planned 120 truck fleet by the end of this year. As a reminder, on January 3rd this year, we made our first deliveries with our high capacity trailers capable of hauling 1.5 times that Your typical industry payload. Since that time, we have been delivering double, now even triple trailer loads to the wellsite. To put this in perspective, we are achieving delivered payloads that range between 70 to 100 tons of sand, which is almost 3 to 4 times Obviously, Atlas is driving major efficiencies with these offerings to the benefit of our customers and local communities. Our differentiated solutions and associated service quality provide enhanced efficiency, reliability and safety compared to traditional sand delivery methods.

Speaker 3

Increased customer demand for our delivered blender solutions is clearly reflected in our revenue growth. Sequentially, quarter over quarter revenue increased 45% and year to date year over year revenue increased 159%. Our logistics solutions were intentionally commercialized prior to the Dune Xpress. Almost 90% of our last mile business is in the Delaware Basin and 100 percent of our Atlas high capacity fleet is operating in the Delaware Basin. As our customers and the broader market increase adoption of high capacity multi trailer deliveries, We expect continued associated market share gains in the Delaware that will seamlessly integrate into the Dune Express upon commencement in Q4 of 2024.

Speaker 3

With that, I will turn the call over to our President and CFO, John Turner.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Chris. Today, I will review our Q2 2023 operating results and comment on our financial position. First, looking at our profit production results for the Q2 of 2023, our sales volumes were 2,800,000 tons, which equates to an annualized run rate of just over 11,300,000 tons. We generated record sales of $161,800,000 representing a 5.5% sequential increase. On product sales, our sales volumes grew by approximately 2.6% sequentially, While our average mine gate price declined moderately from $46.45 per ton to $44.21 per ton, resulting in and relatively flat product sales.

Speaker 4

As a reminder, given our significant contract coverage, we are limited participants in the spot during the Q2. But when we did make spot market sales, we were able to achieve good pricing in the mid to low $40 per ton range. We've also been working with both existing customers and new customers on contracts for 2024 and beyond, and we've made good progress on that front. Now moving to the service sales, which is revenue generated by our logistics operations. For the Q2 of 2023, we reported a Quarterly record of $36,600,000 in revenue, representing a 45% increase of $11,300,000 when compared to our prior period.

Speaker 4

This increase was primarily driven by expanding the size of our trucking fleet, which allowed us to take on more work. We ended July with 66 trucks, which is an addition of 43 trucks since last quarter. In total, cost of sales excluding DD and A Quarter over quarter increased by $900,000 to $63,500,000 This increase was primarily driven by higher trucking and last mile logistics costs resulting from the increase in the size of our fleet. It was nearly fully offset by a reduction in our mining, Mobile equipment and fuel costs as we were able to mine more tons with our dredging assets and also benefited from lower traditional mining rates with our new vendor. We continue to see improvements in our dredge mining operations and we expect our mining costs to continue to moderate as our Dredge mining utilization rates continue to increase throughout the remainder of the year and into 2024.

Speaker 4

For the Q2, our per ton plant operating costs were $9.62 which is 16% below the 11 point $0.46 per ton we reported in Q1 of this year. In addition, we expect the delivery of new specialized dredging equipment in early 2024 to provide for significant potential improvements in operational performance and reductions in our mining costs. Royalty expenses for the quarter were $4,300,000 representing a 46% sequential decrease. This decrease was due to the removal of the Kermit overriding royalty interest for the full quarter, which ceased towards the end of the Q1 in connection with our IPO. SG and A expense for the quarter was $12,200,000 representing a sequential increase of 43%.

Speaker 4

Adjusting for non cash stock compensation, quarter over quarter, our cash G and A increased 34% From $7,900,000 to $10,600,000 The increase in cash cost was largely the result of our IPO and the transition to a public company incentive compensation plan as the vast majority of our 2017 unit based incentive compensation expense have been expensed in prior periods. The increase in cash the cash component of our G and A was largely associated with increased professional fees associated with our term loan, which bears interest at 8.47% and has a 2027 maturity. We generated $3,500,000 of interest income for the period, which will likely decline in future quarters as we draw down on our cash reserves to fund our growth expenditures, the Dune Express and Kermit Expansion. Depreciation, depletion and accretion expense The quarter increased to $9,400,000 represent a sequential increase of 10.7%. This increase was due to higher depletion expense associated with higher sales volumes and additional depreciable assets placed in the service as compared to the prior period.

Speaker 4

We generated a record net income of $71,200,000 for the 2nd quarter, representing a net income margin of 44% and earnings per share of $0.67 Net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter was $103,900,000 compared to $54,200,000 in the Q1. This increase was largely due to our accounts receivable balance normalizing from The elevated levels we saw during the Q1, in addition to higher net income generated during the period. Adjusted EBITDA for the period was a record 92.8 dollars representing a sequential increase of 10.5% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 57%. Adjusted free cash flow, which we define as adjusted EBITDA less maintenance CapEx for the quarter was $81,900,000 representing a sequential increase of 6.5% and an adjusted cash flow margin of 51%. During the Q2, we converted 88% of our adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow given our low levels of required maintenance capital expenditures.

Speaker 4

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $106,900,000 This includes $96,000,000 spent on growth projects, which includes our Kermit expansion and the Dune Express and $10,900,000 of maintenance CapEx. We expect growth capital expenditures to continue to increase In the second half of the year as we progress on Dune Express Construction, which will be partially offset by declining Kermit expansion expenditures As construction activities taper off as we approach commercial and service of that additional capacity. We have already spent approximately 66 $1,000,000 out of our budgeted $400,000,000 on the Dune Express. For our Kermit expansion, we have spent $151,000,000 with approximately $54,000,000 remaining. The Kermit expansion is expected to be fully available by year end 2023 with some volumes becoming available early in the September to October timeframe.

Speaker 4

We are making great progress on the construction of the new Express and continue to track On time and on budget. As of July 31, we had ordered more than 80% of the materials and equipment for the project. Similarly, Greater than 50% of the purchases associated with installation and labor have been contracted for as well, and we have cleared approximately 36 of the 42 miles of right At this time, we have not taken action to pursue additional growth projects below the Kermit expansion, The build out of our trucking fleet for the remainder of 2023 and Dune Express Construction are currently underway. We may decide down the road to build additional capacity, but don't We need to make that decision today. As some of you may recall, our Kermit and Monahan's plants are much more productive and efficient than we originally anticipated.

Speaker 4

We believe the Kermit plant expansion will potentially also be more efficient than we've been anticipating and would like to see what the production potential is prior to making further CapEx decisions. In addition and more specifically, when accounting for our new state of the art dredges and wet and dry capacity, we think it is likely that we will be able to Our stated production capacity above the 15,500,000 tons for next year without additional capital expenditures. We also expect maintenance capital expenditures to remain more or less at second quarter levels for the remainder of the year. As Bud mentioned earlier, we previously distributed $15,000,000 per quarter and we are increasing our distributions this $20,000,000 This amounts to a $0.20 per share dividend for our Class A shareholders and a corresponding $0.20 per Unit distribution for our holders of our common units of our operating subsidiary. Given our accessible cash generation In our future contracted volumes, we are comfortable increasing our distribution this quarter to $20,000,000 and installing a $0.15 per share base dividend as well, with potential for future growth in dividends as our capital investments wind down over the course of 2024.

Speaker 4

As of June 30, 2023, our total liquidity was $416,000,000 This was comprised of 342,000,000 dollars in cash and equivalents and $74,000,000 of availability under our ABL facility, under which we had no borrowings outstanding. Principal balance of our term loan sits at $132,000,000 and our current capital lease balance is $39,000,000 And so the total amount of debt outstanding is currently $172,000,000 and we ended the quarter with a total debt to latest 12 month adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.5 times. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we entered into an agreement with Stonebriar Commercial Finance, Our current term loan lender to refinance our existing 2021 loan credit facility with a new $180,000,000 term loan facility. Additionally, the new term loan facility will include an additional $100,000,000 delayed draw facility. The transaction is leverage neutral, extends our maturity to August 2030, provides the company with an additional $100,000,000 in liquidity and most importantly, removes I will now turn the call back over to Bud Brigham for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, John. To conclude, I'm very proud of our team and this company. I will finish by pointing out a single metric that directly validates the quality work of our team and this company. The fact that our customers have significantly increased the profit purchases from Atlas over time. We have seen our sand volume per customer per quarter grow by over 50% from this time last year.

Speaker 2

This is a perfect illustration of the importance of aligning with the right customers of the fact that our customers appreciate our scale, Our reliability, our quality and our expanding and growing logistics offerings. These are reasons Atlas remains extremely busy in

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question Thank you. Our first question is from Derek Podhaizer with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Operator

Hey, good morning, guys. Good morning. So

Speaker 5

appreciate all the color. You talked about being 40% contracted 2024 and you plan to bring that up to 80% by the end of the year. Just wanted to ask you about the interplay of this the weakening spot market pricing that we're seeing and how that may weigh on contract negotiations for 2024. You highlighted, spot market prices, you were able to get in that low $40 per But where has that gone now? And we've heard numbers more with the 2 handle on it.

Speaker 5

So ultimately, where do you see this pricing per ton trending into 2024 as you work against the weakening spot market with China contract up your volumes for next year.

Speaker 2

Well, this is Bud. I'll start off and then these guys may want I'll add to my comments. As we mentioned on the call, we're sold out. We continue to be sold out. We have not seen given that we're so highly contracted, we have not Needed to access the spot market?

Speaker 2

There is a Stratification in the market, just as there is with operators, as I mentioned on the call, The scale of our operations and the scale of our customers, I think provides us and the reliability we've demonstrated for them, provides us with A very steady customer base without the volatility maybe that others have experienced. And so that's why as we mentioned, No, we're actually well ahead of schedule relative to last year when we had less than 4,000,000 tons committed for the subsequent year for 2023. We have 6,000,000 tons Committed for next year. So our business continues to be healthy And we're adding more contracts on top of that 6,000,000 tons we have committed for next year.

Speaker 4

Do you guys want to add anything to that? This is John. I mean, the long term like Bud said, the long term fundamentals in the Permian are as healthy as ever. 2023 will be a record year percent consumption and we're expecting a new record in 2024. Most of our right now, the analysts have our I mean, when you look Analyst numbers out there for 2024, I think the range is 35% to 39%, and we're comfortable with that in that range on pricing.

Speaker 4

And that's what we guided to originally in the original research analyst, part of the research analyst through IPO.

Speaker 5

Got it. Great. That's super helpful. Just want to switch over to your CapEx. Appreciate the color you gave us on the Dune Express, Kermit and maintenance.

Speaker 5

But just thinking about 2024, you took the Kermit II expansion off the table. Anything else that we should be surprised about just thinking about maintenance for 2024, trucking logistics CapEx for 2024? And then maybe some help on the cadence of the Dune Express CapEx over the next 18 months up until it's commissioned.

Speaker 4

Yes. So first off, on the plant expansion, the second plant expansion, not the first plant expansion, the second 5,000,000 tons. The answer to that is yes. We have paused the CapEx piece on that, but we do still think that we're going to Potentially be able to get those volumes out of our plants as they currently exist. So we're going to wait and see what happens with that CapEx Associated with that additional 5,000,000 tons.

Speaker 4

I mean, we still think that the 5,000,000 tons are potentially up to 5,000,000 tons. Additional tons is going to be there, But we just have to see how we're going to do that. And we can that's going to be through plant efficiencies, more efficiencies with the dredges. We're going to wait to see how this plant expansion performs. Now on the CapEx for the Dune Express, it's still on time and on budget.

Speaker 4

It's just really just a timing. What I'd say is just a timing difference in timing and modeling. We can't control the way that our vendors, the way they bill us and we pay obviously when they bill us, but We don't control that, but when we model it, we model it that the cash is going out the door. So when you're looking at for the remainder of 24, We're looking at, I think it's around another $160,000,000 from here to the end of the year on CapEx For the Dune Express and then next year the remainder of that will be spent the remainder of the $400,000,000 will be spent next year. So that's $66,000,000 already spent, Another 160 through the end of this year and the remaining of that will be spent through the end of next year.

Speaker 4

We haven't On the logistics side, we haven't made any decisions yet on capital expenditures as it relates to expanding our logistics offerings next year. But as soon as we get those, we'll let the

Operator

Our next question is from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, team and did love the video. That's my first question is just on the Dune Xpress. It sounds like it's tracking okay.

Speaker 5

But As you think about the 2 or 3 most critical path items to get to completion, what are they? What are the tail risks we should be aware of? And how are you trying to mitigate those?

Speaker 4

So Neil, thanks. And that is a good reminder for everybody out there. There is a video out there on our website for everybody to look at. So to answer the question, we're in great shape talking about critical path items. Number 1, thinking Electrical gear, which is what we'd say is our e houses, those represent 9% of our overall budget.

Speaker 4

These are the longest lead time items and currently on order. Those are currently on order within August to September 2024 estimated delivery date. The installation of those will take 3 to 5 weeks. And so we have a 2 to 3 month cushion today and we feel very good about where those are. Another one is the conveyor belt that's roughly 10% of the overall budget.

Speaker 4

As it relates to equipment being delivered, we are actually receiving our first The 3 belt shipments to the Port of Houston this week, a week earlier than expected, our remaining 2 belt shipments will be delivered at the end of September in mid November. So those include a 5 month install, but Those things will be on-site well before we're going to be installing those. And then there's the cross country conveyor module components, which represents around 13% of the budget. Due to the sheer volume of the material required, majority of our vendors had to reconfigure their manufacturing facilities along with designing and implementing In retooling for the production of these components, we're currently on schedule for April of next year. This includes the idler assemblies, concrete sleepers, roof panels and conveyor module steel.

Speaker 4

One of the things that we do As a company in construction, as we do these, what we call vendor audits, we perform vendor audits. And basically, It's a way for us to verify where our vendors are in the production process and then also to evaluate their quality control. And so we constantly do these vendor audits. In fact, we are sending one of our folks overseas here in a couple of weeks He's going to go look at all of our overseas vendors to make sure that these guys are our vendors are on time and all up to spec on the quality control front, so that When that equipment arrives, we can make sure that it's going to arrive on time and then it's also going to arrive and meet the standards that we need. It's basically a Trust the verify procedure and it ultimately ends up in better outcome for Atlas and its investors.

Speaker 5

Yes, that's a lot of good color there. And then this follow-up is on the dividend. Just I know this is an evolving topic because The free cash flow inflection, you'll see a lot of it in the back half of 'twenty four and to 'twenty five. But as you think about the preferred allocation of capital to shareholders, Should we think the dividend, how do what's your view on the variable dividend? I know you've used in past instruments as well.

Speaker 5

So just your perspective on return of capital would be great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, this is Bud. I'll start and John I may want to add to my comments. We certainly believe in the distribution model. Our prior companies Had a fixed base dividend and a variable on top of it, we think philosophically, In my view, it's very beneficial because it adds some transparency and visibility that As far as the ability of the business to profitably grow and generate value for shareholders, We're excited that we've got given our level highly contracted volumes over 90 contracted at strong pricing and growing contract for 2024 gave us plenty of confidence To go ahead and implement a base dividend even through this period of high CapEx and further to increase our dividend this quarter About 33 percent to $20,000,000 So I would expect, of course, the Board will be determining it. We will We'll be working on a longer term formalized dividend policy over the next few months and end of 2024.

Speaker 2

I would expect probably by early 2024, we will be putting that out to market. But particularly given our industry leading margins, Even better than the big three and midstream enterprises and the cash generation of this company, as our CapEx begins tapering down, our CapEx investments begin tapering down in 2024, we're going to have a Significant ramp up in distributable cash flow and I think increasing our dividends will be a high priority. That said, down the road, we could have some high rate of return and high ROI CapEx growth projects Subsequent to the expansion, the Dune Express, we'll be evaluating those. But Regardless, I expect Atlas to be a very compelling distributing enterprise on a go forward basis.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Luke Lamoine with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 3

You've been coming into our

Speaker 7

nameplate capacity the past few quarters as you gain efficiency at your plants And electric dredges are helping as well. And you've commented that you might be able to get the current Phase 2 volumes with current nameplate And the Kermit Phase 1 expansion, just want to make sure that you're saying that total nameplate could be close to 20,000,000 tons per annum with your current nameplate And Kermit Phase 1 expansion, is that right?

Speaker 2

Yes, maybe I'll make a quick general comment and then John probably will want to add to it. Yes. As he touched on, when we designed and built our plants, they have exceeded our production expectations. We have two things happening now of course. We have the expansion.

Speaker 2

We continue to innovate and advance on design. So there's a bigger range of production potential for this expansion, and we want to see how that plays out. The other thing is and John may want to elaborate further on this, but it's our existing plants. As you know and as you touched on, it's been touched The dredging is continuing to advance and it's going to get more and more efficient and there's other things that we're doing at our existing facilities that have the potential to benefit our production capacity as well. So we do think there's going to be incremental Capacity, we're going to be able to deliver without additional growth CapEx and we kind of want to get a better handle on that on a go forward basis.

Speaker 2

John, do you want to add to that?

Speaker 4

Yes. So The original plan at Ed Sheerks that we talked about, I guess originally, was the Dune Express itself can be 13,000,000 tons. We did we had 5,000,000 of original tons and we're going to bring on 10,000,000 additional volumes and through 2 plant expansions to get to that $13,000,000 so we can fully supply the Dune Express. So right now, it looks like, like Bud said, is that We're going to be able to potentially fulfill that need without spending the additional $150,000,000 of CapEx on that additional 5,000,000 tons. To say, I mean, so what we're I wouldn't when we say we're looking at additional plant I mean, expanding our capacity up is like, yes, we definitely think we're going to be able to hit the Dune Express, Fulfilled the didn't express and then potentially get up higher than that.

Speaker 7

All right, perfect. Thanks, John. Thanks, Clive.

Operator

You bet. Thank you. Our next question is from Jim Rolison with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Good morning, gentlemen. Hey, Bud. Just circling back on the Dune Sagebrush possibility of being added to the endangered species list. Obviously, you guys have been kind of involved in that from the very beginning And helping craft the CCAA and obviously setting aside acreage for Habitat. Curious, so it doesn't seem like there's any impact one way or the other truly on your operations, but curious your view And if this actually goes through, once we get past the litigation phase of that, kind of where you see this impacting the rest of Permian suppliers?

Speaker 8

And Could this actually turn out, if it happens, could this actually turn out to be a net benefit for you all from a market share perspective?

Speaker 2

Yes. And as you touched on, we have been involved since the founding of Atlas And mitigating the risk associated with the DSL and our General Counsel Our attorney involved in this, Rick Fletcher, has been intimately involved and been a real leader We can make him available if anybody wants to ask him questions on it. But we spent a lot of time working with the Department of Interior And we were the 1st, I think, to join the Craft at CCAA, which is a very beneficial conservation plan. We're certainly the largest Contributor to conservation, we're dedicating 17,000 acres for the Lizard for Habitat. Nobody else can dedicate that kind of acreage that Atlas can.

Speaker 2

So that's another benefit of the scale that we have Out there and of course given our participation, we're extremely confident that even the Event of listing, which would be several years out and would likely be challenged in the Supreme Court ultimately by industry Even in the event of successful listing that we would be fully operational and not impacted. As far as its impact on others, I think we're seeing more companies join, including a number of our customers Join the concert the CCAA. I expect that to continue. There will be some, I'm sure, at risk of it and it could affect supply. But personally, I'm optimistic that 1, given the timeframes involved and 2, the way our industry will mobilize and 3, just the importance of The Permian production for energy production for our country and for the world.

Speaker 2

Personally, I think it's unlikely in my view that there will be significant constraints on the industry In general, and that's just my personal view. But regardless of how it plays out, Atlas is in an outstanding position.

Speaker 1

And Jim, one thing to add real quick, any listing of the DSL will not have any impact on the Dune Express. Just wanted to make that point.

Speaker 2

Yes, that's correct.

Speaker 8

Yes. That's great color. And then just

Speaker 2

go ahead. I'm sorry. I hope that helps.

Speaker 8

Yes. No, that's perfect answer. And John, as a follow-up, just going back to costs, obviously, costs have come down A bit more this quarter, pretty good sequential improvement. And it sounds like you'll continue to work that lower and then you'll take delivery Early next year of the new dredges to further aid that. Just kind of wanted to circle up and check On how you're thinking about that cost trajectory relative to maybe kind of getting back to the closer to the mid single digits like we talked about during the original IPO due diligence, if you're still kind of cool with that trajectory?

Speaker 4

Yes, we're still on that trajectory. Look, I Back to like I think 2021, I mean we're sub-seven on an OpEx basis and that's when we were fully utilized. I mean all of our Mining was primarily coming all of it was coming through a single dredge. And when we expanded our production capacity out there, we needed to bring on additional dredges. And we won't be able to get to those lower OpEx per unit numbers until we have our new judges come on in the 4th I mean in the Q1 of next So but yes, we do see a good trajectory getting back down to that or see us I mean, we're down 16% this quarter.

Speaker 4

There were some changes that we made and we see still see us improving on that. And then once we are fully utilizing dredge mining for all of our Production is coming through judges. We do see us being back in that mid single digit range like you talked about.

Speaker 8

Excellent. Thank you, guys. Good quarter.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Don Crist with Johnson Rice. Please proceed with your question. Good Good

Speaker 9

morning, gentlemen. I wanted to ask a question about Kermit and the timing of the Kermit expansion. So I think I read correctly in the press release that you're going to start up the wet plant this quarter and then start selling next Quarter. And I just wanted to know if that was kind of early in the quarter or kind of late in the quarter when we're going to see those sales because that could be upwards of 1,200,000 tons in the quarter, just kind of want to see timing around that.

Speaker 4

Yes. As far as the timing of that, I mean, I don't necessarily think that we'll have 1,200,000 tons to sell in the Q4. That's going to be a ramp up process. We're going to be washing sand here soon and then bringing those volumes on For sales, a little bit later in the quarter, so it wouldn't be till the end of the quarter. You start seeing volumes come on for sale.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then on the logistics side, obviously that is ramped up a little bit faster than we originally discussed and kind of outpaced our Expectations for this quarter, but can you give us any kind of parameters around how revenues on the logistics side would ramp up Maybe through the end of this year. Obviously, they're going to ramp up significantly next year with Dune Express, but just kind of the rest of this year, How we look at kind of logistics revenue ramping?

Speaker 3

Yes, I mean, we've this is Chris Scholes. We've more than doubled our service sales compared to the 1st 6 months of 2022 and we're in the early stages of that ramp you referenced on our logistics revenue. It will continue to be a significant area of growth for us. Roughly 10% of our delivered loads were multi trailers during the quarter. In terms of margin outlook for the second half, we expect gross margins to remain relatively static for the logistics business, but Overall gross profit to increase as we continue to build out our fleet.

Speaker 3

As we see more and more of our customers, we touched on earlier around adoption The multi trailer offerings, we do expect to see some gross margin expansion due to the efficiency of the operations. We continue to make steady progress on the last mile contracts and awards. As you noticed, the revenues ahead of schedule, EVA is ahead of excuse me, gross profits ahead of schedule and our truck deliveries and working with our vendors and partnerships there, Being able to pull some of those deliveries in order to support the growth of the business.

Speaker 4

And I think one thing that you just mentioned It's important to remember is that a lot of the contracting that we're doing this year includes logistics as well. Yes, we're moving from

Speaker 6

in just a very short period of time From a sand company to a solutions company and there's been great adoption for that as we move forward. And it's actually they're demanding it in 2024.

Speaker 4

Yes. So versus last year, we were just we're contracting sand. This year, we're contracting sand and delivery for our logistics truck.

Speaker 9

I appreciate that. And if I could sneak in just one more, there's been a lot of churn recently On activity, and just curious as maybe your top 15 customers or so, is the rig count for them kind of flat or Up or down, either way, any kind of color around that?

Speaker 2

Yes, we actually have some numbers. I'll let these guys state the numbers. But Just thematically and kind of restating what I said before, I mean, in the call That we've seen our customers, it's kind of natural selection that we have the scale and the reliability plus the environmental benefits With high capacity trucking and ultimately with the Dune Express, it's really important for the high scaled Quality operators and so that's why we've seen them grow their pull on sand from us by 50% over the last year or So these are large scaled operators that their activity doesn't blow in the wind. With oil prices like some do, They like the fact that we're going to be sustainable and be there for them. They're going to be sustainable for us as customers.

Speaker 2

So What was that number? We actually looked and the rig counts for our operators actually has not gone down.

Speaker 6

Yes, Craig, it's going it's stayed very, very stable, but our output but the output on the completion side has gone up radically.

Speaker 2

Yes. Their call on our sand is our market share obviously continues to grow since They're buying 50% more sand from us and their rig count actually has not declined. So that's probably the reason we have not seen The price softness maybe some of the smaller producers that are maybe lower tier product tend to see. Not every company experiences the same demand or the same pricing in the market.

Speaker 6

Yes, we're seeing tremendous efficiency. 2022 was supposed to be an We're seeing the first half of twenty twenty three is massive efficiency gains on the drilling side, more footage per day, lateral footage being lengthened On the completion side, with the integration of the new equipment and so forth, we have seen that really take Have a dramatic effect on efficiencies from tons per day pumped, efficiencies, hours pumped per day. As a result, We are seeing tremendous gains in there. We're moving single well operators used to are now doing zippers, Zipper operators are doing simul fracs and there's even trimofracs being tested right now. So we're seeing a tremendous intensity gain right now in

Speaker 2

Yes, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Sean Mitchell with Daniel Energy Partners.

Speaker 10

Just Budd, I think you answered this in the last question, but I want to make Sure. I understand this clearly. It seems like with the Dune Express kind of well underway with construction and whatnot And your logistics business is kind of moving at a little bit faster pace than maybe we expected. But Is the customer mix changing and are the conversations with prospects better today? It sounds like the answer is yes, but I just want to kind of confirm that, but really want to talk about customer mix.

Speaker 10

And then I'll the second question I have is, as your logistics business is Probably growing at a faster pace and you have more trucks coming on in the back half of this year. What's the labor market look like for drivers?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Sean. Maybe I'll start and these guys may add to it. I do think, I mean, it's evidenced by the number that our customers Pulling more sand from us, it's of course the larger customers. It's the high quality large scale operators that have scaled Operations out there that need the reliability, sustainability and of course they do love the environmental benefits that we're providing.

Speaker 2

So I don't expect that to continue. In fact, the fact that we're ahead of schedule on contracting volumes for next year relative to last year As a sign of that, I expect that to continue. Those advantages that we provide are going to be increasingly important, particularly As we get closer to the Dune Express launch, I expect our market share with those large scale customers to continue to grow. Do you guys want to add anything to that?

Speaker 3

Yes, I would just say that we continue to high grade our customer base and really make strategic partnerships That create accretive value for both parties. We see that approach work extremely well from both a contracting and strategic partnership approach. In terms of the labor market for the drivers, You can read all the stats out there around driver shortages across the U. S. That's no different in the Permian.

Speaker 3

But as Atlas always has, we create a great work life balance for our folks. We put together very fair packages and made sure that our employees enjoy coming to work every day

Speaker 4

And overall,

Speaker 3

continue to actually Have their friends and recommendations come in. We've seen a lot of that. Once drivers get here, they refer folks in. So We don't anticipate any major challenges on the labor side of things, but we continue

Speaker 1

to keep an eye on it.

Speaker 4

A lot of those truck drivers are very familiar with our plant operations because they've been coming through our plants for the past 5 years. Yes. So and they've witnessed Atlas and They constantly talk to our employees that are out there. So we do a pretty good job of hiring people and retain them.

Speaker 2

Yes. I do think a lot of these things we're talking about that our customers appreciate our scale and reliability and the fact that we're performing so well makes it all the Better place for people to come to work and they enjoy working with us. And It helps us to both attract and retain quality people. Got it. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 8

Operator, I think we have time

Speaker 1

for one more question.

Operator

Okay. Our final question is from Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question. Hey, good morning.

Speaker 11

Thanks for squeezing me in.

Speaker 2

Thank you,

Speaker 11

Scott. Yes, no problem. Just one question here. As we talk to investors about the Dune Xpress, One of the key questions we get is around servicing the line. Once it's up and running, I believe you made some enhancements to your design relative to some of the other active conveyors out there.

Speaker 11

But can you provide some color on how you enhance that design and how you think about Operating costs and maintaining the line once it's up and running?

Speaker 4

Yes. As far as Some of the features on our on the Dinexpress, as far as making it more reliable, when we anytime when We constructed our plants. We did the same thing. We actually looked at the biggest, the highest points of failure or where there were points on the Where the typically where there was a breakdown or where areas where we could maintain uptime and where we could design and make a Better product and design, a better system. I'm one of those where errors was with idlers.

Speaker 4

The belt itself is probably the most is one of the most important parts of the conveyor. Obviously, the belt over time will experience wear and tear. We came in when we were designing the Dune Express. We recognize that. We recognize that idlers were a place where you experienced that high wear and tear on the belt.

Speaker 4

Those idlers typically They typically go out in the way historically companies or operators of conveyors have Figure out whether an idler is blown out, they just basically have to drive up and down the line to listen for the sound of the conveyor And the sound of the idler squeaking as it goes out, it creates and emits a sound. We actually designed in our design have a smart idler It has a microchip in it. So that idler will notify us when it's going out. So we can actually go out there and replace That idler before it expires. The other thing is going to the OpEx and the maintenance, I think our OpEx And maintenance is, we have we plan to have a Crew, full crews have made the folks working out on the conveyor.

Speaker 4

I think maintaining the conveyor, the biggest Part of the OpEx is going to be electricity. So, but anyway, that's just one of the redundancies and one of the Designs that we put into the conveyor, there's many others that we could go into.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think from an overall perspective, Taking the same approach that we have with our plants, using technology to structurally increase the uptime and reduce OpEx Through a number of engineered capabilities along with remote monitoring and maintenance programs.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to Bud Brigham, Chairman and CEO for any closing comments.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you everybody for joining us for the call. We look forward to following up subsequent to the completion of this quarter. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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