Aspen Technology Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 1, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Double-digit ACV growth: Aspen reported fiscal 2023 ACV of $884.9 M, up 11.8% year-over-year, with $292.3 M in free cash flow and plans to further expand free cash flow margins.
  • Successful integration and synergies: The company has integrated OSI and SSE into AspenTech and is on track to achieve $110 M in EBITDA synergies, including $40 M of cost synergies from the Emerson transaction.
  • Mixed suite performance: Engineering and refining segments drove growth while chemical demand remained subdued into calendar year end; APM remains a smaller, underperforming area bolstered by a recent FMEA/RCA tuck-in.
  • Sustainability and energy transition tailwinds: AspenTech highlighted co-innovation partnerships with Emerson and Microsoft, new hydrogen value-chain demos, and growing microgrid and carbon capture use cases.
  • Fiscal 2024 outlook: The company targets at least 11.5% ACV growth, $1.04 B in bookings, $1.12 B in revenue, non-GAAP EPS of $6.51, and announced a $300 M share repurchase authorization.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Aspen Technology Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

And thank you for standing by, and welcome to Q4 2023 Aspen Technology Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Brian Denue from ICR. Your line is now open.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our financial results For the Q4 and full year of fiscal 2023 ending June 30, 2023. With me on the call today are Antonio Pietri, Asimtek's President and CEO And Chantal Brito, Assentech's CFO. Please note, we have developed an expanded earnings presentation for the Q4 and our fiscal year 2023. This presentation is now posted on our IR website, and we ask that investors refer to this presentation in conjunction with today's call.

Speaker 1

Starting on Slide 2, before we begin, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward looking statements. Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are set forth in today's press release And in our annual report on Form 10 KT and other subsequent filings made with the SEC. Any forward looking statements that we make on this call are based on As of today, we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this presentation, we will present both GAAP and certain non GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 1

A reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press And investor presentation, both of which are available on our website. With that, let me turn the call over to Antonio. Antonio?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Brian, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Let me open by thanking our investors For their thoughtful feedback and suggestions regarding our earnings materials, which are reflected in the structure of today's prepared remarks as well as our updated earnings presentation. Beginning on Slide 3, We achieved several important milestones in the quarter and fiscal year to help lay the foundation for AspenTech to enter Our next growth stage as a leading global industrial software player. First, We delivered a solid Q4 to close out a successful year, marked by resilient demand and ACV growth above the midpoint of our guidance range. We believe these results have successfully laid the groundwork for a promising fiscal 2024 and positioned AspenTech well for future ACV growth and free cash flow margin expansion over time.

Speaker 2

2nd, We made substantial progress integrating and transforming OSI and SSE and we're pleased with how well these businesses fit into our broader portfolio Given how early we are in our journey with these assets, we're excited about the enhanced value proposition Our solutions can now provide customers across energy, chemicals, EPCs and utilities among other industries. 3rd, We built the teams, processes and systems to capture growth synergies between Emerson and AspenTech and establish a cadence between organizations to execute on And finally, we remain focused on R and D and co innovation with the strategic partners and customers. Our efforts to advance use cases in support of our customer sustainability strategies show incredible promise and have been well received by customers. Q4 was a strong finish to an important year and show the benefits of our transformation efforts and learnings. Fiscal 2023 annual contract value was $884,900,000 representing double digit growth of 11.8% year over year, while fiscal 2023 free cash was $292,300,000 Chantelle will address our free cash flow performance in her remarks.

Speaker 2

Turning to Slide 4, I'll walk through our suite performance. In the quarter and throughout the year, Demand in most of our end markets and geographies was strong. Our performance this year against the backdrop of an unpredictable macro environment It's an important reminder of the mission criticality of AspenTech's solutions to our customers' operations and strategic priorities. I'll touch now on the key high level themes we're seeing across our suites. First, Heritage has been tested performed well, contributing 7.2 points of growth on an ACV basis.

Speaker 2

Our engineering suite outperformed this year, driven by an improving business environment for EPC customers After years of restructuring in the industry and a strong energy market, we also saw material growth from new customers that are benefiting from or investing in sustainability related projects. We believe these new customers represent classic land and expand opportunity for our other suites in the future. MSC performance was in line with our commentary from the 3rd quarter, benefiting from refining market strength. Chemical demand remains subdued in the Q4, particularly for bulk chemical producers As companies continue working through this token and the impact from an uncertain economic outlook, this dynamic is having a more pronounced impact On OpEx spend for chemicals customers, which drives most of our chemicals business. Our expectation is This trend will now last at least through the end of the calendar year based on recent market commentary from customers.

Speaker 2

APM's performance came in at the lower end of our guidance range for fiscal 2023 and reflected a continuation of the trend we have While APM represents a relatively small portion of our overall business, we continue to believe in its Growth potential and remain committed to building out its capabilities to better capitalize on opportunities in certain markets. On that note, I'm pleased to announce that we recently closed a tuck in IP acquisition that will provide additional failure mode and effects analysis and new root cause analysis capabilities, in short FMEA and RCA capabilities to our Mtell product. This will strengthen Mtell's existing use cases and help to further expand its reach into other industries, such as power and transmission and distribution. The SSE and DGM suite of products were both successful in their 1st year as part of New AspenTech, exceeding our anticipated points of ACV growth contribution by 60 basis points in total. SSE had an exceptional fiscal 2023 and was the largest area of outperformance for the year.

Speaker 2

The offset was driven in large part by the positive impact of initial transformation synergies, including the establishment of minimum contract lens And heritage has been taken like contract terms and conditions as well as better than expected demand. SSE's performance this year reinforces the attractiveness of our full lifecycle solution that supports both traditional oil and GAAP E and P efforts for upstream customers as well as an increasing number of sustainability use cases. DGM sales delivered a solid Q4 performance and we're pleased with its sales activity outside of North America. Historically, DGM has been focused on the U. S.

Speaker 2

And its ability to leverage AspenTech's global expertise and capabilities is an important driver of our growth Furthermore, the imperative to expand the grid to achieve global electrification and the funds committed Globally backed governments to this effort will accelerate the demand environment for the DGM suite. Turning now to Slide 5. In fiscal 2023, we've built the foundation of new AspenTech while delivering solid financial results. In the span of 13 months, we made significant progress bringing OSI, SSC and Heritage AspenTech together. We successfully integrated this business' sales, marketing, finance and product development teams among other areas to create a fully unified organization.

Speaker 2

We also completed our acquisition of Imagen, which Combined with our industrial AIoT offerings forms what we now refer to as DataWorks. On the synergies front, our results reflect early success in realizing our objectives as part of the Emerson transaction. We're on track to achieve the $110,000,000 of EBITDA synergies, which includes $40,000,000 in cost synergies. In particular, we have made significant progress in laying the foundation for our joint go to market strategies with Emerson. We're excited about the increasing opportunities we see to jointly expand business in either AspenTech or Emerson accounts as well as co innovation and OEM collaboration.

Speaker 2

Emerson brings a unique and complementary skill set to our industrial software focus and we're aligned on execution and priorities going forward. Importantly, we also executed the Having done all of this and because of it, We remain confident in our execution plan and the timeline to achieve the anticipated outcomes from these businesses' transformation. As an example, in the case of OSI, we're building out OSI's 3rd party implementation services providers network To support the secular increase in demand and as part of the business model evolution towards a software centric business like Heritage AspenTech. We're also receiving encouraging early receptivity to our DGM term license model from utility customers as we introduce an alternative to perpetual software licensing and we have completed the work to make the DGM suite token ready to introduce As we discussed on Slide 6, We continue to see the megatrends of the energy transition and global electrification as important drivers of our business, particularly related to sustainability projects. That said, I'd like to take a moment now to discuss how we're positioned to capitalize on these sustainability pathway opportunities, many of which have been expanded through our transaction with Emerson.

Speaker 2

First, Heritage AspenTech's capabilities Across all three suites are uniquely positioned to drive energy efficiencies and profitability in our customers' existing asset operations, While also addressing a growing number of energy transition use cases around biofuels production, carbon capture and sequestration, the hydrogen supply chain, Electrical batteries, engineering design and recycling process design, direct air carbon capture systems and more. In fiscal 2023, we already started to see material benefits from sustainability efforts in our engineering suite. In DGM, many customers are using our Monarch SCADA platform to help manage oil and gas distribution systems, Supply and demand management for solar, wind and hydropower electricity and a broad array of Key resources, supply and demand management networks such as for water. Chemicals and refining customers are also showing heightened interest in microgrid management capabilities, presenting us with the opportunity to cross sell our DGM suite into these markets. Meanwhile, in SSE, we're seeing interest in geothermal energy production, carbon capture and sequestration, subsurface hydrogen storage and other sustainability use cases that are happening faster than we originally anticipated in certain parts of the world.

Speaker 2

Now, more than ever, AspenTech is well positioned to drive existing customer growth, win new logos and gain market share through these sustainability related opportunities. As you can see on Slide 7, We're investing in R and D and co innovation partnerships to build out additional sustainability capabilities in our products To enhance our first mover advantage in this space for the benefit of our customers. As an example, this year we partnered with Emerson and Microsoft to develop a joint hydrogen value chain solution demo that helps optimize CapEx, operating costs and other infrastructure to expedite Speed to market. On that note, and turning to Slide 8, we've outlined several customer wins in Q4 that demonstrate the value we're creating for our customers through this work as well as the current and future growth opportunities. On this slide, we've highlighted a few examples that are relevant discussion here today and would encourage you to read those in more detail.

Speaker 2

Wrapping up my discussion of our fiscal 2023 results, I can tell you that the team here at AspenTech is energized and excited about the opportunity and growth potential of AspenTech today. At our recent annual sales meeting, I was encouraged to meet with my colleagues from around the world and discuss our next chapter. It was a materially different conversation now that the Heritage AshpenTech, OSI and SSE teams have all been a part of a unified organization for 13 months. Their excitement about what's possible going forward was palpable. As we kick off fiscal 2024, we entered the year with a strong foundation from which we can build and grow new AspenTech.

Speaker 2

The success we had in fiscal 2023, putting the teams, systems and processes in place necessary to scale this business means We're now able to increase our focus on execution and achieving our go to market trials. Now turning to Slide 9, I want to shift to fiscal 2024 and our ACV guidance. We start this year with a Solid operational foundation and growing momentum. Customers are reacting well to our expanded value proposition and ability to positively impact their bottom line and sustainability efforts. Moreover, customers across all industries are grappling with their strategies to achieve Energy transition and believe we're positioned extremely well to help them achieve their goals.

Speaker 2

The technology stack and long term vision for our Solutions are very compelling to customers. Our outlook is for ACV growth of at least 11.5% in fiscal 2024. This includes at least 7.5 points of growth from Heritage AspenTech, 2.5 points of growth from DGM and 1.5 points of growth from SSE. We believe this outlook effectively balances the positive demand trends we see in most of our end markets and the benefit of improved execution focus With the ongoing uncertainty of the macro environment. Some of the key assumptions underpinning our guidance include Industry demand trends that are consistent with fiscal 2023, which were positive in all markets except for chemicals.

Speaker 2

In the chemicals market, while we remain excited about its long term prospects due to its focus on digitalization, efficiency improvement And sustainability initiatives, our guidance assumes the market conditions we experienced in the second half of fiscal twenty twenty three will persist Throughout all fiscal 2024. With the inherited judgment tech, we expect the ongoing And strength in the refining market will support another solid year of MSC growth. The engineering suite is expected to continue benefiting from encouraging CapEx trends across the upstream energy market as well as the positive impact from sustainability initiatives. Finally, For APM, we anticipate its ACV growth contribution to be similar to fiscal 2023. While we continue to APM is an attractive growth opportunity.

Speaker 2

Our guidance does not anticipate selling conditions to improve this year. For DGM, we're confident DGM ACV growth will improve in fiscal 2024 due to: 1, our ongoing investment in DGM sales capacity, including our international sales team 2, increasing demand in the market As funding to upgrade and expand electrical grids continues to grow and 3, the benefit of a full year of DGM customers adopting our term license offering. Turning to SSE, we're pleased with its underlying performance in fiscal 2023 and the future growth opportunity for this suite. SSE is benefiting from increased investment in traditional upstream CapEx, a growing number of opportunities as well as the benefits of AspenTech's tokenization model. Having said that, it is important to note that a Significant portion of SSE's outperformance in fiscal 2023 was due to the positive impact of a transformation synergy that was a one time in nature.

Speaker 2

As customers renewed or signed new agreements that align with Heritage AspenTech's standard contractual terms and conditions. SSE contract duration at the time of the Emerson transaction was approximately 1 year, which means we have renewed almost all of its existing contracts and largely capture the impact of this transformation initiative. There remains an important transformation synergy in the SSE business, which is a conversion of a large base of legacy perpetual SMS ACV to term software ACV, which will begin to convert in fiscal 2024 by leveraging the SSE token suite. We expect this to materialize over a multiyear period. Overall, SSE's 1.5 points of expected ACV growth contribution equates to a mid teens SSE ACV growth rate, which compares favorably to our expectations for this business when we announce the Emerson transaction.

Speaker 2

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Chantel before I return for closing remarks. Chantel?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Antonio. I will now review our financials for the Q4 and for the full year of our fiscal 2023 on Slide 10. Before I begin, I'd like to highlight that our earnings presentation We have also included definitions of annual contract value or ACV And bookings in our earnings presentation now available on our IR website. We ask that investors refer to these definitions together with today's call. As Antonio discussed, annual contract value was $884,900,000 at the end of fiscal 2023, Up 11.8% year over year and 3.5% quarter over quarter.

Speaker 3

This was at the high end of our outlook for fiscal 2023, reflecting our portfolio expansion, solid growth across our product suites and resilient demand in most end markets. Customer attrition was 5.9% in fiscal 2023, beating our guide of 7% to 8%, mainly due to benefits from transformation efforts in SSE and secondarily, focused customer success efforts on EPC customers to mitigate reduction in spend. Annual spend for Heritage AspenTech was approximately $730,900,000 at the end of fiscal 2023, increasing 8.5% year over year and 2.7% quarter over quarter. Please note that we will not be disclosing annual spend for Heritage AspenTech going forward now that we have finished the fiscal year. Total bookings was $380,000,000 in the 4th quarter and $1,080,000,000 in fiscal 2023, above the high end of our guide.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, bookings are impacted by the timing of renewals. Total revenue was $320,600,000 for the 4th quarter and $1,040,000,000 for fiscal 2023 within our guidance range. As a reminder, revenue in our model is heavily impacted by contract No timing and variability under ASC Topic 606. Now turning to profitability. On a GAAP basis, operating income was $6,000,000 while net income was $27,300,000 or $0.42 per share in Q4.

Speaker 3

For fiscal 2023, operating loss was $183,100,000 and net loss was $107,800,000 or $1.67 per share. On a non GAAP basis, operating income was $148,900,000 in Q4, representing a 46.4 percent non GAAP operating margin. For fiscal 'twenty three, non GAAP operating income was $394,800,000 representing a non GAAP operating margin of 37.8 percent. Related to my comment on revenue and Topic 606, The timing of customer renewals and the resulting impact on license revenue recognition in a given quarter also drive fluctuation in margins between periods. Expenses came in slightly higher than our guide due to an increase in FAS debt expense driven by one customer.

Speaker 3

Non GAAP net income was $138,200,000 in the quarter or $2.13 per share. For fiscal 'twenty three, non GAAP net income was $372,100,000 or $5.72 per share. Turning to the balance sheet. We ended fiscal 'twenty three with approximately $241,200,000 of cash and cash equivalents and no debt. In addition, we had $193,100,000 available dollars available on our revolving credit facility.

Speaker 3

On cash flow, we generated $113,600,000 of cash from operations and $111,500,000 of Free cash flow in Q4. For fiscal 2023, we generated $299,200,000 in operating cash flow and $292,300,000 in free cash flow. This was below our expectations due to lower collections. As we have discussed in the past, Heritage AspenTech has a disproportionate amount of its receivables due on June 30. This year, we saw a greater portion of these invoices push out of the quarter as certain customers took longer to pay than they have historically.

Speaker 3

We received a significant portion of these payments in July. We believe this reflects certain customers being more cautious as they manage through a tighter working capital and cost of capital environment. Tightening our collection processes and improving the rigor of our collections forecast across the entire business is a primary area of focus for us in fiscal 2024. Before turning to guidance, I would like to take a moment Discuss our capital allocation strategy, which we have outlined on Slide 11. I'll begin by providing an update on Micromine.

Speaker 3

In collaboration with Potencia, MicroMine's majority owner, we have terminated our agreement to acquire MicroMine. As stated previously, we had been waiting to secure a final regulatory approval. The outstanding approval needed was from the Russian government. As its review process continued, the timing and requirements necessary to secure the approval became increasingly unclear. This lack of clarity on the potential for and timing of a successful regulatory review led us to this course of action.

Speaker 3

We remain committed to acquisitions, including smaller technology tuck ins or larger more strategic targets as our primary use of capital. We have built one of the world's leading industrial software businesses, and we believe we are in a great position to deepen our product portfolios for our core verticals through M and A. In addition, we will opportunistically pursue acquisitions that provide us with leadership positions within new markets That could further benefit from our deep technical capabilities and first principles approach. Importantly, we have strengthened our internal M and A capabilities to execute I would note as well that despite the decision to terminate the Micromine transaction, The metals and mining industry remains an attractive market, particularly for our DGM, MSC and APM suites. And we remain committed to expanding our footprint in this industry through organic and inorganic investments.

Speaker 3

If we do not identify attractive and actionable M and A opportunities, we will pursue share repurchase authorizations if market and business conditions warrant. For example, in Q4, we announced a $100,000,000 accelerated share repurchase program that we anticipate completing this quarter. And today, we are announcing that our Board of Directors has approved a $300,000,000 share repurchase authorization for fiscal year 2024. Once the ASR is complete, our intention is to begin executing on this new authorization. We maintain a robust financial profile with a Strong balance sheet and healthy cash flows.

Speaker 3

We consider these to be strategic assets and they allow us to deploy capital in ways that generate value for our customers, employees, Consistent with prior fiscal years, we will continue to provide guidance on an annual basis. As Antonio mentioned, We are targeting total ACV growth of at least 11.5% year over year in fiscal 2024. This includes our expectations For attrition of approximately 5%, with a higher concentration of attrition occurring in Q2 and Q3. We expect total bookings of at least $1,040,000,000 with $580,000,000 up for renewal in fiscal 2024 and $80,000,000 up for renewal in Q1. We expect total revenue of at least $1,120,000,000 GAAP net loss at or better than $7,000,000 and non GAAP net income of at least $424,000,000 In addition, we expect GAAP net loss per share at or better than $0.11 and non GAAP net income per share of at least $6.51 This includes the impact of our fiscal 'twenty three share repurchase program.

Speaker 3

From a cash flow perspective, we expect operating cash flow of at least Our earnings presentation presents other important considerations for Just to think about in terms of modeling our business. I'd now like to provide some additional color on these points. In general, our business is Typically weighted more towards the second half of the fiscal year. For ACV, we expect fiscal 2024 growth to have a similar cadence to what we delivered in fiscal 2020 3 in fiscal 2024 to 2023 in terms of our net new ACV added during the year. Q1 is expected to be the lowest and Q4 the highest in terms of net new ACV added.

Speaker 3

On free cash Hello. The large majority of our free cash flow typically occurs in the second half of the year. In fiscal 'twenty four, we expect at least 80% of free cash flow to occur in the second half of the year, which is largely consistent with last year's linearity. We anticipate Free cash flow in the second half to be fairly evenly split between Q3 and Q4. Please note that Q1 is typically our lowest free cash flow quarter, And we expect that to be true again this year.

Speaker 3

Our guidance assumes cash tax payments of approximately $125,000,000 With respect to revenue, as noted earlier, timing is more variable due to the impact of 606. However, renewals, which heavily impact license revenue, are generally more weighted to the second half of the year with Q1 1 renewal is at the lowest and Q4 renewals at the highest. Based on current expectations, we anticipate that our revenue linearity will be broadly similar to fiscal 20 We will continue to disclose the amount of bookings up for renewal each quarter. Let me wrap up by saying that we are proud of what we have accomplished in fiscal I am confident in our team and our ability to capitalize on both existing and emerging growth opportunities going forward. With that, I will turn it back to Antonio for his closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Antonio?

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks Chantal. We'll be opening up the call for Q and A momentarily. But before we do that, I want to reiterate the key takeaways from this call and fiscal 2023 more broadly. First, we delivered a solid year in fiscal 2023, delivering double digit ACV growth and laying the foundation for the Expansion of ACV growth and free cash flow margins in the coming years.

Speaker 2

2nd, we made great progress integrating OSI and SSC with Heritage AspenTech, I made a strong progress on our ambitious transformation roadmaps for both the OSI and SSE businesses. I'm confident our efforts this year position us for success in fiscal 2024 and beyond. 3rd, Sustainability is a sizable and growing tailwind across every area of our business. We are in a great position to on increased investment from customers in areas like energy transition and electrification for years to come. As we look ahead, We expect to build on our leadership and sustainability as a key driver of our strategic priorities.

Speaker 2

And finally, We entered fiscal 2024 with solid momentum, a cutting edge technology stack and long term vision for our solutions that is very compelling to our customers. A big component of my confidence in our ability to deliver on these outcomes is also the incredibly talented team We have at the helm of new AspenTech today. We entered the year with the right people, processes and products in place With that, operator, we would now like to begin the Q and A, please.

Operator

And thank you. And our first question comes from Rob Oliver from Baird. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Hello?

Speaker 4

Hey, Antonio. Hi, Chantal. Thank you guys for taking my question. I appreciate it. I had 2.

Speaker 4

1, Just to start since probably the last time we're going to be able to ask about it, which is the Heritage Aspen Tech component of the guide, which I'm Antonio, I appreciated your color around some of the moving parts within that. And it Looks like it's relatively flattish with this year. Can you just give us a sense of what linearity was in Q4 with your chemicals customers? And know things dropped off pretty dramatically there. So when you say, hey, we're not expecting any change in the market, is that off of sort of that low base you guys So last quarter, help us understand that and maybe some of the other moving parts within that.

Speaker 4

And I just had a quick follow-up.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, I mean, look, the 4th quarter was a solid quarter for hot growth That supported the eventual outcome that we got. Nonetheless, as you said, the The growth we had in fiscal 2023 was similar to fiscal 2022, around 8.5%, and that is a result of Combination of factors, certainly chemicals, not that chemicals completely disappeared, but probably from a growth standpoint, Less than half of what it normally does. There was a little bit of back and forth throughout the year In our Russian business, and we had a quarter where China was fully closed down as well. And look, ultimately, fiscal 2023 was an incredible year.

Speaker 2

A huge amount of work was accomplished integration and transformation. They had a leadership team had to take on the integration and transformation of the OSI and SSE And I have no doubt that some a lot of their brain cycles were dedicated to that effort as opposed to the normal execution cadence that we have in the company. Now that we are past that, I am convinced that we're going to get back to that Execution cadence going forward, which is what encourages me about our guidance for fiscal 2024 in line with what we accomplished in fiscal 2023, at least what we did in fiscal 2023.

Speaker 4

Okay, very helpful. Thank you, Antonio. I appreciate it. And then Chantal, just to quickly touch on some of the issues around The acquired assets SSE and DGM that surfaced last quarter, it sounds like you guys are on the path to fixing those. And I guess Can you just help us understand where we are relative to those as we enter FY 2024, thank you guys very much.

Speaker 3

Yes, happy to Rob. I would say we're exiting FY 2023 with confidence that we fully understand the learnings and have incorporated those. So we've taken the exit out of 'twenty three, incorporated that into our 'twenty four guide, learning from SSC, learning from DGM and OSI. So, Rob, we've fully taken those learnings and incorporated them, and we're confident that we have our hands around those in our 2024 guide.

Speaker 2

And what I would also add to Chantal's answer, Rob, is, look, we're now entering 2024 with the The leadership team, the organization, the systems and the processes in place, that's what we worked in 2023. 2024 is

Operator

And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Hi, Andrew. Hi, yes. Good afternoon. Can you hear me?

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 5

Hey, just historically, you guys sort of provided your guidance within 3 percentage points. So this So 11.5%, am I correct to assume that that's sort of the low end of the guide? Just want to make sure, Right, versus the midpoint of the guide, the way you would historically guide, right? Does that make sense what I'm asking?

Speaker 2

Yes. You should assume that the 11.5% is the floor for our performance in fiscal 'twenty three fiscal 'twenty four.

Speaker 5

Got you. That sounds good to me. And then on DGM, just we've heard from some of your competitors that Utilities just generally as you transition the license structure, they have to figure out how to incorporate it into their base rate. Can you just talk about it? And it seems it's not right, it's not just an Aspen issue.

Speaker 5

It's like Other competitors have sort of highlighted that as well. Can you just talk to us where we are in terms of sort of industry acceptance As you go away from perpetual license model with utilities regulated, utilities customers, Just give us a little bit more color, how much work has been done? What's the understanding level in the industry? Sounds like you guys I've done some, but just maybe a little bit more color. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, Andrea, I believe one of the comments that we have On our prepared remarks, it's also how pleasantly surprised we are about the early receptivity to our term licensing model by utility customers. Frankly, we had that same belief that you just communicated at the beginning of the fiscal year And listening to the OSI team, but as we approach these customers with term licensing, The benefits of it and even some preliminary conversations around the token suite, We've seen them to be very accommodating. No doubt that they have to find ways to Build that cost into their cost rate. They do go through those motions.

Speaker 2

A lot of them do. It has allowed us to Do some term business for new pipeline that has closed early on, but also we've been able to convert Some pipeline that is being on a perpetual license basis to term license business at the very end of those deal negotiations. So yes, we understood that to be the case, but the fact is that our sales motion It's proven to be otherwise in most cases. No doubt there are some customers that prefer perpetual, But this is a transition and the progress we've made, we're very pleased with.

Speaker 5

Thanks for clarifying. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 6

Yes.

Speaker 7

And thank you.

Operator

And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Matthew Fow from William Blair. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Hi, Matthew. Hey,

Speaker 8

Antonio. Hey, Shantel. Thanks for taking my questions. First one, do you ask on Acquisitions and thanks for an update on the capital allocation strategy. But specifically on acquisitions, what does the pipeline look like there for Larger transactions like the MicroMine 1, are there attractive ones that are out there?

Speaker 8

And how soon would you be willing or feel that you're ready to pursue another Transaction similar size to MicroMine?

Speaker 3

Yes, I think that I can start, Matthew. I think From the perspective, we definitely have a pipeline. We have an active pipeline that we're always looking at as being part of our capital allocation strategy. There are targets out there that are of interest. Fortunately, you can't always time when you would like to do it versus when they're available.

Speaker 3

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're ready to do that activity when it presents itself. We've developed the internal M and A activities. We have the balance sheet to So I think we're ready when we find it, but we remain disciplined. As we've always discussed in the sense that we want to make sure It's accretive or supports double digit ACV growth and our best in class profitability. So we'll time it when it's available, but we're ready to still engage in it.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. And then just, I wanted to follow-up on comments around the Russia business, is there any of that left that's included in the fiscal 2024 guidance? And is there any risk around that part of the business?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, our guidance of $11,500,000 certainly accounts for chemicals, accounts for Other potential eventualities, but on Russia, due to the different challenges that we've been facing in that market, We decided to go to a renewals only mode. So that means that we're not going to be selling anything new Into Russia going forward, we will be focusing on renewing the existing business And that's going to be our focus. So our guidance already implies that we will not see any growth From Russia, and we've also taken a little bit of a conservative approach with respect to potential attrition in Russia, Although we expect to renew the business that's coming to us in fiscal 2024, we've been cautious and And assume some level of attrition in Russia as we try to renew some of that business. So going forward, AspenTech We'll only be renewing business.

Speaker 2

We will not be selling new entitlement to Russian customers.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

Speaker 7

Thank you. And thank you.

Operator

And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Jason Celino from KeyBanc Capital Markets, your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Hey, Jason. Great. Thanks. Hey, Antonio. Hey, Chantal.

Speaker 9

Thanks for fitting me in. No, really strong guide here with a double digit ACV guidance. I think you mentioned on Andrew's prior question that this was kind of the floor. I guess, how conservative do you think investors should view this type of ACV outlook?

Speaker 2

Well, look, if we give you that guidance of 11.5% being the floor is because we're confident about that number. If you look at the ACV growth in fiscal 2023 and the attrition, 11.8% plus 5.9%, that's about 17.7% of gross growth, new growth in fiscal 2023. That's a very strong outcome from a new growth, new business generated in fiscal 2023. In fiscal 2024, if you look at the guidance of at least 11.5 and the attrition at 5 approximately 5, That's 16.5%. So what you see in our guidance is expectation of chemicals For the full year not contributing, we had half a year of strong contribution from chemicals in fiscal 2020.

Speaker 2

We're assuming The chemicals will be subdued in the full year in fiscal 2024 in their less Russia growth or non Russia growth. And so that's how we come out to the 11.5. If you look at our guidance as well on the Suite, on a per Suite basis, you look at Had delivered about 8.5% growth in fiscal 2023. We're talking approximately close to double digit So 2023, we're guiding to almost 40% growth for the DGM suite. Sorry, I should have said DGM in fiscal 2023, 30%, 40% in fiscal 2024 and SSE grew by 33% in fiscal 2023 and we're guiding to about 15 percent, 15% growth in fiscal 2024.

Speaker 2

And this is solid growth across all suites that we're assuming. We saw in Q4 a solid contribution to growth from DGM. We were conservative in our Q3 outlook for DGM, considering that we were still learning around the dynamics of Customers' motions to sign deals, but we're pleasantly surprised in Q4 with that outcome. So overall, look, we feel good about the trajectory for HAD in fiscal 2024, the trajectory for DGM, the trajectory For SSC, we're going to have a greater focus on our execution. And now it's about really injecting more momentum into the

Speaker 9

Perfect. No, I really appreciate that really in-depth answer, Antonio. And then maybe just a quick follow-up for Shantel on the free cash flow for the year and for next year or for the quarter. You mentioned some timing Differences just on invoicing, that makes sense. Any way to quantify what moved from Q4 So, is it Q1?

Speaker 3

Yes. No, I understand the question for sure, Jason. I would put it that basically the difference between the actual and the guide would be the range But I would carry in and in our guidance assume that some of that continues through the year, so it's not as an alternative to Q1 and Q4 has none. But you can say the range to the actual would be what I would assume.

Speaker 9

Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jason.

Speaker 7

And thank you.

Operator

And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Clark Jefferies from Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hi, sir.

Speaker 10

Hello. Thank you for taking the question. I really appreciate the disclosure on the ACV growth contributions, especially by industry. Antonio, maybe I would clarify something that you briefly mentioned in the prior question, but When we think about Heritage AspenTech getting back to double digits, where would be the delta there? Was it Chemicals was half the contribution that you'd normally expect.

Speaker 10

Any other callouts when we think about industry contribution, overall heritage returning to that double digit level.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, look, I think fundamentally, our energy industry refining It's been a strong contributor. Certainly, that will be the case. Engineering Accelerated to almost 8.6% growth in fiscal 2023. By the way, that's the fastest Growth rate of our engineering business since fiscal 2014 when it grew just over 10%.

Speaker 2

So we're really excited about the tailwinds for the engineering business from sustainability investments. I think that will continue in fiscal 2024. We believe that MSC will continue to perform strongly. There are some products In MSC, the in performance we expected as a result of execution focus in fiscal 2023. That focus will come back.

Speaker 2

I think that will give us a lift in the same markets, refining, even upstream that is taking off some of this more of those technologies. And APM sort of similar contribution. So, but look, I think MSC will be about focus on execution in fiscal 2024.

Speaker 10

Perfect. And then a follow-up for Chantal. One thing that stands out to me is the bookings number for next year. Just wondering if there were any early renewals, anything that contributed to bookings this year being above The high end of the guide that you had for last quarter for full year bookings, any other mechanics that would lead to the bookings number being down year over year for fiscal 2024?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that in the sense of some of the prepared remarks you've heard driving the bookings for this year would be The achievement of the term length for Hat, I think that we look at what we've achieved in DGM. So I don't think there's anything I think it's just the mix of business and timing of the renewals is the key factor. So I would put it on more the timing of the renewals than anything more specific than that.

Speaker 10

All right. Perfect. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Yes. And Clive, just one more thing and for everyone. If you look at the presentation, The slide deck that we posted, if you look at the Slide 16 that has all the ACV dollars by Swede over the last 3 years, which will allow you to calculate the growth rate for fiscal 2023 instead of having to remember what I said.

Operator

And one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Josh Tilton from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Hey, Josh.

Speaker 6

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you hear me? The first question that I wanted to ask is kind of revisiting a question that I think was sort of I've had a few questions ago. But given this is the last time where you're going to, I guess, talk to or disclose the heritage business, You're guiding to kind of like a mid single digit growth for next year.

Speaker 6

When you guys step back and you just really look at that business, like how should investors view the growth profile Of what is core Heritage Aspen over the next 3 years? Like does this remain a mid single digit grower? Is this going to accelerate, Decelerate like how do you guys think about the growth profile of this business over the next few years?

Speaker 2

Well, let me look at first of all, we're 90% to 7 point And I guess that would be at the high end of mid single digits. But Look, we for us to get to our growth rate that we believe this business can operate at, The Hat business will be a double digit growth business. That's our expectation. We are revisiting our expectations around the engineering business from being sort of a high mid single digit Business to high single to double digit. I think our MSC business hit We hit a soft spot, if you will, this year.

Speaker 2

That will recover, And we continue to have expectations about the APM suite. This is why we made that tuck in acquisition that we just announced. So overall, our expectation is for it has to be a double digit ROE. Now what I would Tell you is this is on an ACV basis. In the past, it's been an annual spend.

Speaker 2

So there's a little bit of a Step down because of the higher base in ACV, but overall, our expectations haven't changed for that suite. Okay?

Speaker 6

Makes sense. And then maybe just a quick follow-up for me is, I think you guys during the Q and A said that you look So the current guidance is sort of a floor. If we were to look at the heritage business or some of these newer assets from Emerson like 12 months from now, you guys beat the guide. Where would we expect where are you most confident to see the upside come from? Is it from the heritage business or some of these newer assets?

Speaker 2

I mean, look, I think chemicals plays a big role in the outcome for HOT. We listened to the commentary from chemicals company CEOs. They expect chemicals To be subdued through the end of this calendar year, they're not saying anything about next year, but we've assumed it's more of the same To be conservative on our guide, if things change, that could provide some upside. Look, I'm a big believer in our MSC business. We're fully focused on executing on that business.

Speaker 2

Our engineering business has shown a But look, I think DGM, we're gaining momentum on that business as well. Look, sustainability could be the big surprise as well here, and the big benefit on Sustainability is coming through the hot suite. Electrification is what drives DGM, and we're building the pipeline there. So I know I'm sort of giving you an answer for everything, but I just think that There's just a lot of opportunity out there and it'll be just a matter of execution. So we'll see what outperforms, but

Operator

And bear with me And our next question comes from Mark Sheppel from Loop Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hi, Mark.

Speaker 11

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Antonio, this quarter's remarks around the DGM business were much more positive than last quarter when you ran into some I was wondering if you could just review once again some of the changes in that business over the last quarter that you've seen.

Speaker 2

Look, I think we need to talk about the cadence of the full fiscal year. There was an incredible amount of work going on in Q1 and Q2 to lay the foundation, put in place the teams, The processes, the systems are pushed into the markets of SSE and DGM With term software or term licensing for the software, as we got into the service Business, there are some things that we found there. And in a way, a lot of things came to a head in Q3. We learned a lot out of the Q3 quarter, and I would also argue that those learnings were quickly slide early in Q4, and it was produced what I think was much cleaner execution In Q4, there was very little learning that happened in Q4. It was more about applying what we learned from the previous And then I feel that we are we generated momentum, which is So I think it's just how the year flowed And the activities that were happening and the assumptions we made is sort of all came together in the Q3 quarter, But we quickly pivoted, and I'm very proud about the job that the team did coming out of that quarter To really refocus our execution and therefore you have what I think is a tremendous Q4 outcome.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you. And then as a follow-up, with respect to MicroMine and the termination of that deal, To be relevant in the metals and mining industry, do you believe that you need to do another transaction in that sector?

Speaker 2

Well, look, I've always said that if we want to sort of grow and be relevant in a new industry, we need to have an anchor And for asset, meaning buy something that gives us already critical mass. And therefore, The answer is yes. I still believe that in any industry that we decide to go into, the goal has to be to

Operator

And thank you. And I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Antonio Pietri, CEO for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, I want to thank everyone for joining us on the call today. Again, just to reiterate The takeaways, look, we built the foundation for the next stage of growth for the company, And I hope that's clear. We're entering fiscal 2024 with momentum, and we believe that the guidance that we provided Supports that. We continue to see strong demand around our mission critical solutions, HAD, DGM and And as I see, we see emerging opportunities in sustainability, especially for our engineering business.

Speaker 2

So All of this, we believe, is creating a very exciting outlook and environment for the new AspenTech. And Well, our job is now to execute in fiscal 2024. Thank you, everyone. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.

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