Exelon Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 2, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we'll have a question and answer session.

Operator

If you would like to view the presentation in a full screen view, click the full screen button by hovering your computer mouse cursor over the PowerPoint screen. Press the escape key on your keyboard to return to your original view. And finally, should you need technical assistance, As a best practice, we suggest you first refresh your browser. If that does not resolve the issue, please click on the help option in the upper right hand corner of your screen for online troubleshooting. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andy Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

The floor is yours.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Gigi, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to have you with us for our 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer and Jean Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon's senior management team are also with us today, and they'll be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. Today's presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information, can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website.

Speaker 1

We would also like to remind you that today's presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today's presentation or on our SEC filings. In addition, Today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non GAAP measures. Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 earnings call. We continue delivering on our plan as expected, which is a testament to all of the work put in by our dedicated employees. But before we get into our results and business updates, I'd like to first start by acknowledging a key milestone. In July, ComEd reached the end of the 3 year term of the deferred prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice.

Speaker 2

At the court status hearing, the government moved to dismiss the charge, noting the company fully complied with the DPA, Which the court granted in the hearing. We remain committed at all levels of the company to the highest standards of integrity and ethical behavior. And we look forward to building on the trust of our customers as we continue to move forward. In that spirit, I am pleased to welcome Anna Rizzo to our Board of Directors. Anna is the General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary for Cargill And she brings highly complementary experience as an attorney and business leader.

Speaker 2

Her commitment to operational excellence And compliance will provide invaluable oversight. Now turning to the results for the quarter. As you can see on Slide 4, We earned $0.34 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.41 per share on a non GAAP basis. These results are right in line with what we expected this quarter And we remain on track to earn within our guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share for 2023. We continue performing operationally at a very high level.

Speaker 2

3 of our 4 utilities had best on record performance in outage frequency And out of duration, which I will touch on more on our next slide. We have also continued to progress through our rate case calendar With 6 active base rate cases underway in Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and the District of Columbia. Most recently, On May 16, we filed our 2nd multiyear plan for Pepco, Maryland, the Climate Ready Pathway Plan. The filing outlines Pepco's near term proposal to advance the state's climate and clean energy goals, while taking steps to mitigate the impact of these efforts on customers' bills. The proposal includes over $150,000,000 of climate solution programs to help Maryland meet its goals in the areas of transportation electrification, Building decarbonization, beneficial electrification and distributed energy integration.

Speaker 2

It also includes A proposed performance incentive mechanism to focus on reliability, greenhouse gas emission reductions and removal of equipment posing health and environmental risk. We look forward to working through the process with stakeholders and the commission staff toward rates effective in the Q2 of 2024. Beyond PEPCO Maryland, we have now received intervener testimony in our BGE and ComEd multi year rate plans and filed our rebuttals, And additional milestones await us in those cases in August, along with activity for Delaware Delmarva Delaware and Atlantic City Electric. The Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia has also set its schedule for the Pepco DC multiyear plan. You will hear more from Jean about all the work underway to align with our regulatory stakeholders.

Speaker 2

Now looking past 2023, We'll also remind you of the guidance we've previously provided on our long term outlook. We expect to be at the midpoint or better Of our 2021 to 2025 and 2022 to 2026, 6% to 8% annualized earnings growth ranges And to grow the dividend in line with those earnings. Over the next 4 years, we anticipate investing over $31,000,000,000 to further support the transformation, whether it's increasing affordability for customers or strengthening the durability of our long term investment plans. For instance, we have talked about our efforts pursuing grants under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which support the investment programs we have laid out for the commissions And we recently announced winning approximately $30,000,000 of grant funding for middle mile broadband investments at BGE and ComEd. Additionally, you may have also seen that PJM recently voted to proceed with transmission upgrades To address reliability challenges associated with retirement of the Brandon Shores coal plant in Eastern Maryland, With over $850,000,000 of work assigned to our utilities.

Speaker 2

Now while most of the incremental For that investment occurs beyond our current guidance window, it's a great illustration of how we continue to have opportunities To strengthen and lengthen our expected rate base growth as the largest pure T and D utility in the United States. Our transmission upgrades ensure customers are able to buy cleaner generation and that they can depend on a reliable resilient grid Before I move on to operations, I want to mention that we published our latest Exelon Sustainability Report in mid July. This is the 12th report in our company's history. We are incredibly proud of the work our organization puts into ensuring we are leading the energy transformation in an affordable and equitable manner. Our purpose, Powering a cleaner and brighter future for our customers and communities really shines through that report.

Speaker 2

And the progress we continue to make in fulfilling that purpose Here are a few examples. We have connected over 200,000 customers with over 3 gigawatts of renewable energy resources, A 16% increase over 2021. We saved close to 25,000,000 megawatt hours in 2022 With our award winning energy efficiency programs, a 9% increase that avoided 9,500,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases and SAES customers over 30,000,000 at our average retail rate. Our support for diverse suppliers is now up more than 56% from 2018 levels. Having spent $2,900,000,000 with such suppliers in 2022, additionally, 62% of our $7,500,000,000 total supplier spend is with companies in the communities we serve.

Speaker 2

Our annual sustainability report illustrates all the ways in which our more than 19,000 employees ensure our communities Greatly benefit from the work we are doing to support their energy transformation goals. Turning to Slide 5, I'll provide an update on our operating performance for the first half of the year. As it pertains to reliability, we continue setting the bar for performance. All four utilities operated in at least the top quartile and ComEd, PECO and PHI achieved best on record outage frequency performance. That makes it the 2nd quarter in a row for ComEd and PHI for best on record performance.

Speaker 2

Those 3 utilities Also happen to achieve best on record system outage duration performance and BGE continues to operate in the top quartile. Their performance illustrates that the investments we are making in the grid provide the footing for this operational excellence, and then it is up to our employees To rise to the challenge of keeping customers online or getting them back online as quickly as possible when outages do occur. Now that job is getting harder to do with storms growing more frequent and severe, but it's increasingly important to do as society depends more and more On electricity, nationally, we expect to see 50% annual growth in electric cars and 12% annual growth in data centers And ComEd in particularly is already seeing sizable opportunity in data centers. The data center growth will only strengthen As industries increasingly rely on cloud services and AI. As the nation's largest T and D company, We must rise to the challenge of meeting these incremental demands on the grid.

Speaker 2

This operational performance was matched on the gas side With all three utilities continuing to perform at top decile levels for gas odor response, our customer satisfaction Scores remain in line with those reported in our Q1 call. Our utilities are performing in the 2nd quartile versus the 2021 benchmark When costs across the board were lower, pandemic relief had not yet rolled off and customers had not yet been impacted By the escalating interest rates and commodity prices, we are working every day to ensure customers are aware of the options they have to manage their costs, And we have seen increased engagement by our customers through these efforts. In fact, ComEd announced just 2 weeks ago that it won several recognitions in the 20th Annual Best Practices Awards by Chartwell. These annual Chartwell Awards Recognize excellence among electric and gas utilities with respect to customer oriented projects, programs and service initiatives. One of these awards included recognition for ComEd's Community Energy Assistance Ambassador Program.

Speaker 2

This program originally launched in 2020 In response to the economic impacts of the pandemic, it was designed with a community based organization to increase education and access to financial assistance options that can help income eligible customers pay their electric bills, while creating local employment opportunities for the same vulnerable population. But it is a constant reminder of the importance of focusing on value for our customers as well as affordability. And we are continuously seeking to reduce our own operating costs in addition to pursuing the customer focus initiatives we have discussed.

Speaker 3

I will conclude by discussing our safety performance,

Speaker 2

where we lost ground at 3 of our 4 utilities. Ensuring our employees and contractors operate in a safe environment is of paramount importance. Lower performance this quarter Largely resulted from low impact OSHA recordables like slips and falls and minor vehicle related incidents. As a result, each of our operating companies have action plans underway to address areas of needed improvement to ensuring We are operating at our standards. This includes revisiting our safety plans for the year to ensure they are adequately addressing the issues we have observed year to date.

Speaker 2

Other examples include facility reviews to enhance safety and expanding our simulation based training to offer more opportunities for employees. We are working hard to drive safety performance to the levels that we expect. I will now turn it over to Gene to discuss our financial performance and provide additional color on our regulatory activity in the Q2. Jean?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our Q2 financial update along with the outlook for the second half of twenty twenty three, our progress on the 2023 rate case schedule, And I'll also highlight an ongoing project that exemplifies our commitment to delivering sustainable value as the premier T and D Energy Company by modernizing critical infrastructure in the Philadelphia area. Starting on Slide 6, we show our quarter over quarter adjusted operating earnings. As Calvin mentioned, Exxon earned $0.41 per share in the Q2 of 2023 versus $0.44 in the Q2 of 2022, reflecting lower results of $0.03 per share over the same period. Results of $0.41 in the 2nd quarter were right in line with Provided on the prior earnings call.

Speaker 4

Earnings are lower in the Q2 relative to the same period last year, Driven primarily by $0.04 of higher interest expense due to the rise in interest rates and higher levels of debt at the holding company and at some of our utilities, as well as $0.03 of unfavorable weather at PECO. This was partially offset by $0.03 of higher distribution and transmission rates associated with incremental investments, net of depreciation, as well as a $0.01 of carrying costs related to the carbon mitigation credit balance at ComEd. Despite another quarter of mild weather impacting our non decoupled jurisdictions, We delivered earnings results exactly where we said. Through the first half of twenty twenty three, operating earnings are $1.11 per share, reflecting 47 This is in line with how we performed through the first half of twenty twenty two. Looking ahead to next quarter, we expect the relative EPS contribution in the Q3 to be approximately 28% of the midpoint of our projected 20 3 operating earnings guidance range.

Speaker 4

Recall that Q3 2022 saw strong growth from $0.04 of higher rates in effect with PECO's electric rate case in year 1 of its current rate cycle as well as $0.03 of realized 30 year treasury rate uplift on ComEd's formula rate distribution ROE And another $0.03 of distribution formula rate timing at ComEd. While the fundamentals underpinning the earnings remaining this year, we expect Q3 2023 results to be lower. Net distribution and transmission growth will be offset by higher interest, and we also expect some timing of O and M and taxes. For the Q4 of 2023, we expect year over year earnings growth to benefit from the absence of proactive derisking that occurred in the Q4 of 2022, The expected reversal of the O and M and tax timing and the anticipated one time impact of BGE's reconciliation As we do not receive the final order on the reconciliation for BGE until December of 2023, on the Q1 earnings call, we expect the $0.07 of unfavorable weather experienced year to date to be offset with a combination of O and M levers across the platform, Favorable depreciation at PECO and the full year earnings impact of the carrying costs associated with the CMC regulatory asset balance.

Speaker 4

On a full year basis, we continue to reaffirm our 2023 EPS guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share. Through continued increase in rate base as we deploy capital for the benefit of our customers and strong cost control across the platform, We remain on track to deliver earnings at the midpoint or better of our guidance range. With several months of weather and storm exposure remaining, you can expect the managed utility work plans Lastly, we are reaffirming the fully regulated operating EPS compounded annual growth target of 68% Turning to Slide 7, as Calvin mentioned, there have been some important developments on the regulatory front. Since the last earnings call, there was one new rate case filed. So I'll provide a status update on each of the 6 current open proceedings, starting with the most recent filing.

Speaker 4

On May 16, Pepco Maryland submitted its Climate Ready Pathway, 3 year multi year plan application to the Maryland Public Service Commission. PASCO is requesting a $213,600,000 revenue increase over the April 2024 to December 2027 period, inclusive of a proposed 9 month extension, reflecting an ROE of 10.5%. The filing outlines investments the company expects to Make to support a climate ready grid and enable cleaner energy programs and technologies that support Maryland's goal to reach net zero emissions by 2,045. As an example of the $150,000,000 of Climate Solutions programs that Calvin mentioned are included in Pepco's proposed plan, More than half are dedicated to incentives for approximately 10,000 equipment electrification conversions for customers transitioning to cleaner technologies Like heat pumps in the building sector. Another key category of spend is dedicated to enhancing reliability, resiliency and grid security Through the installation of more modernized equipment that automatically detects system issues, reinforces the grid against more severe weather And protects the grid from potential physical or cyber threats.

Speaker 4

Overall, these investments are anticipated to inject more than $1,420,000,000 into the local economy For the last 3 years spanning 2020 to 2022, Pepco has reported the best reliability performance of any electric distribution utility in the state of Maryland, a true testament to the company's commitment Empowering a cleaner and brighter future for its customers and communities. Equally as important as reliability, PESCO is focused on keeping affordability front and center for our customers. The multi year plan includes the acceleration of tax benefits to serve as a bill offset as well as efforts to increase participation in energy assistance and energy efficiency programs, which in 2022 alone provided approximately $23,000,000 to Pepco, Maryland customers, An order is expected by June of 2024. Let me also remind you of the other electric distribution rate cases in progress. First, Delmarva Power Delaware has revised the revenue request for $41,800,000 increase based on an updated test period in the electric rate case, And as permitted by Delaware law implemented full proposed rates on July 15th subject to refund.

Speaker 4

Decision is expected in the Q2 of 2024. Similarly, ACE revised their revenue request for a $93,600,000 increase based on an updated test period with the final order expected in the Q1 of 2024. Additionally, after an 8 month proceeding, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved a 4 year capital tracker at ACE called Powering the Future, which accelerates the portfolio of projects totaling $93,000,000 designed to enhance reliability and resiliency for customers, Advance New Jersey's Energy Master Plan goals and sustain economic growth in the region. Next, ComEd and BGE Surpassed 2 key milestones in their multi year plan rate cases, having received intervener testimony and filed their rebuttals to support the Key elements of the company's initial proposals earlier this year. As discussed on prior earnings calls, both plans outline the investments needed In both the ComEd and BGE multiyear plan rate cases, Evidentially hearings are scheduled to begin in late August with briefs to follow before final orders are expected in December.

Speaker 4

Lastly, PEPCO received a procedural schedule from the Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia in its 2nd multi year rate plan filing. Upcoming milestones include intervenor testimony expected to be filed by the DC Public Service Commission staff on October 16th An evidentiary hearing set to begin in January of 2024 with final briefs in March of 2024. Relationships across our jurisdictions remain constructive, and we are working together with our regulators, states and communities through every step of the process to reach our shared goals. As Calvin mentioned, by next year, we expect to have resolution on all 4 of the ongoing multi year rate plans in Illinois, Maryland and DC, and a clear Moving to Slide 8, during the Q2, we continued to invest capital for the benefit of our customers and are on track to meet our $7,200,000,000 guidance These investments in energy infrastructure are vital to maintaining the high standard of service that we have in serving our customers, while preparing the grid for the clean energy transformation and increasing levels of electrification. Today, I'll talk about how PECO is partnering with the community to build a new 6913 kV substation in Philadelphia at the Civic Terminal yard and neighboring property.

Speaker 4

PECO's commitment to building the new Civic substation began in 2019. This $130,000,000 project includes Installation of insulated switchgear and modifications to 4 69 kilobytes transmission lines into Civic Substation That will allow for the retirement of 2 69 kilobytes transmission lines currently running under the Schuylkill River. The new substation is expected to increase and transmission reliability through the reconfiguration of the lines and increased flood resiliency in the low lying areas surrounding the substation, where access has been restricted in the past following heavy thunderstorms. It will also enable PECO to relieve load constraints, supply additional capacity to the University City area and better serve critical customers on the west side of the river. Once fully energized, which is expected by the Q2 of 2024, The Civic Substation will be PECO's newest and most modern insulated substation.

Speaker 4

While traditional open air substation construction Would have required 5 to 7 acres of land, the upgraded electrical equipment associated with the insulated substation allows PECO to build on less than a 2 acre plot of land. That represents a 60% to 70% reduction in required land use. Since project inception, PECO has partnered with Customers, government agencies and other local utilities to ensure construction of the civic substation has a minimal impact to the city of Philadelphia, the surrounding customers and on the environment protecting the nearby waterway and riverbank. With vital customers in the area such as the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, The University of Pennsylvania Hospital and the Philadelphia Veteran Affairs Medical Center, operational excellence is imperative. As an excellent utility, PECO is ready to deliver it.

Speaker 4

Turning to Slide 9, I will conclude with a review of our balance sheet activity. As a reminder, we continue to project 100 basis points to 200 basis points of cushion on average over our guidance period for our consolidated corporate credit metrics above S and P and Moody's downgrade thresholds of 12%, demonstrating our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet. If the corporate alternative minimum tax is not mitigated through an inclusion of repairs in its calculation, we anticipate being at 100 basis points or the lower end of that range. We continue to await specific guidance on the corporate alternative minimum tax implementation and are hopeful to have resolution by year end. In the meantime, the Department of Treasury issued a notice granting deferral of estimated tax payments associated with the corporate alternative minimum tax until 2024, which points to the appreciation that more guidance is required for implementation.

Speaker 4

From a financing perspective, we successfully raised nearly 1,300,000,000 demand we continue to see for our debt offerings is supported by the strength of our balance sheet and by the low risk attributes of our platform. In line with the last earnings call, there has been no change in our guidance to issue $425,000,000 of equity at the holding company by 2025. We'll continue to update you as we make progress on the plan. Thank you. And I'll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jane. I will once again remind the investment We take great pride in our operational excellence, which is our employees dedicate themselves to daily. Summer is when we see some of the most severe weather activity, and our teams embrace the challenge to get customers back online quickly and safely. As we proceed with our work of supporting the energy transformation in our ongoing rate cases, we are very focused on listening to our stakeholders. We want to ensure that we are delivering the right investment plans and the right services to support meeting their energy transformation and climate goals in an affordable In an equitable manner.

Speaker 2

After this year, much of our path forward for the next several years will be established and clear. The team also understands it must deliver on our financial priorities and guidance. Efficiently investing $7,200,000,000 of capital And earning ROEs in the 9% to 10% range will support meeting our 2023 earnings guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share and keeping our balance sheet strong. And finally, we're continuing to look for innovative ways to support our customers and communities end to end throughout our business. In partnership with the Exelon Foundation, we are looking to place our next round of investments In the $20,000,000 Climate Change Investment Initiative Fund or 2C2I, an innovative way to advance solutions to the challenges wrought by climate change, Spanning areas like software analytics to track air quality, non recyclable plastic reuse and novel EV charging solutions.

Speaker 2

Every day, we're reminded that the energy transformation is happening, and we have to be a vital role in it. And we have a talented team That's incredibly excited to play that role. We recently announced that Colette Honorable will be joining us As our Executive Vice President of Public Policy and Chief External Affairs Officer, as a renowned energy policy leader who brings Expertise in areas like clean energy transformation and equitable rate making, she will be an invaluable addition to our team. And she'll help us build on the strong foundation we already have in place, built by the team that got us here. In particular, I want to recognize Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of our Business Services Company, Bridget Reedy, who is retiring in September and played an integral role in shaping our organizational commitment to excellence.

Speaker 2

She also made incredible strides in diversity, equity and inclusion Across the wide variety of corporate support groups that she led like IT and supply. Thank you, Bridget, for your leadership. Our team's commitment to leading the energy transformation is what makes us the premier transmission and distribution utility, One that lives by its values, supports its communities and offers a uniquely strong expected total shareholder return of 9% to 11%. Thank you as always for your interest. I'll now turn it to Gigi for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

Speaker 6

David, good morning.

Speaker 5

Let's see. Wondering if you could Speak to the ComEd and BGE rate cases, and how these have progressed so far relative to your expectations. Just when you look at the key intervenor testimony that we've gotten so far like staff in both cases, how have these shaped up overall In terms of the focus areas versus what you had expected?

Speaker 2

Yes, David, thank you. This is Calvin. I would tell you that they're proceeding As planned and the teams have provided their responses and as Gene mentioned we're going through the cerebroto process, But we have with us both Gil Kionis, President and CEO of ComEd and Karim Kusami, President and CEO of BGE, Who can I'll ask them to just kind

Speaker 3

of take your time and walk you through some of the highlights of each and what you can expect moving forward. I'll start with Gil at ComEd. Yes. This is Gil from ComEd. The ICC staff and interveners in the aggregate Did not waver from their initial positions filed in their direct testimony in May.

Speaker 3

They maintained their position in ROE and the Pension Asset. Their challenges on capital center on certain IT projects, our fiber And proposed private LTE communications network upgrades and systematic and programmatic spending. The rate Case process still playing out, as Calvin mentioned, and we will continue to make our case for those capital investments. We continue to have regular meetings with staff and interveners to provide additional information, answer any of their questions And provide clarification.

Speaker 2

Great.

Speaker 6

Good morning and this is Karim Khuzami from BGE. As Calvin mentioned, The case is proceeding as expected. The staff has come in with a proposal of about 70% of our ask. As expected, some of the areas of debate surround ROE, investments in our gas system And some building electrification programs that DG proposed for the first time to help the state meet its climate change goals. One of the things to point out as you know, reconciliation is the first time this is being done in Maryland in a multi year plan.

Speaker 6

Both staff and OPC and other intervening The incentive parties suggested about 90% of our requests. So again, that is proceeding well. So all in all, going well. As Calvin and Jean mentioned, we have our hearings at End of August, early September with the final order expected in mid December.

Speaker 2

And David, I would just add to that. Both plans We're built on helping the states meet their environmental and climate goals as well as economic development and job creation Opportunities. So the stakeholder process, I don't want to under represent because they both companies have been very engaged in that process And meeting with all stakeholders. So again proceeding, it's a process that will play itself out, but we expect orders for both companies by the end of the year.

Speaker 5

That's really helpful color. Thanks for all that. And appreciating that there are new commissioners in both states, Do you see an opportunity for settling on any issues, partial settlement, full settlement? Or is the expectation and strategy just kind of see this through kind of a fully litigated case more likely?

Speaker 2

Great question, David. We expect to see them both flowing through. And recognizing that as Kareem mentioned, first time for the reconciliation process In Maryland and it's the next 3 years, we'll see it through and let it play out. And for Gil, moving from the formula rate To a 4 year multi year plan, it's important that everyone feels that they've had a chance to voice their opinions And that stakeholder process is critical to that. So we see it playing out all the way to the end of the year.

Speaker 5

Got it. Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of James Kennedy from Guggenheim Partners.

Speaker 7

Good morning, Gigi. Hey, guys.

Speaker 8

Good morning. How's it going? Good. So if I could start with the Transmission announcement this morning, the $870,000,000 for Brandon Shores. Is the portion that falls in the current plan purely incremental?

Speaker 8

And secondly, any color on the potential quantum of other opportunities like these as we start to see other retirements in EMAC and BGE?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, James. First off, it is all additive to the current plan. We do not have any of that. As we've conveyed to you previously, We were never going to put anything that we were striving to get until we want it.

Speaker 2

So that's important. I have with us today David Velasquez, our EVP of Operations to provide additional oversight or insight into this because David Overseas our transmission strategy across Exelon. So Dave?

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you, Calvin. And, James, thanks for the question. Besides the brand and Schor's transmission reinforcements that are needed, you may be aware that PJM also has And open what they call an open window to help transmission reinforcements needed for additional load growth in the Dominion Territory. That is currently open.

Speaker 7

We have submitted 4 different proposals in that open window range from, I'll say smaller enhancements in the $300,000,000 range to large projects that's Help meet both short and longer term needs that are well over $1,000,000,000 And PJM will provide an initial readout of Their recommendations at committee meetings in September, October timeframe with an expected decision from the PJM Board in December of this In addition to that, there are offshore, there are transmission reinforcements needed for offshore wind, both in New Jersey And also in Maryland, and there's legislation in Maryland that requires the PSC by July 1st Next year to make a report back to the legislature and then to issue a solicitation for transmission reinforcements for offshore wind By July of 'twenty five, so not just with the brand in Shores retirement, but offshore wind load growth And again, cannot predict generation retirements, but if they occur, we are ready to do what we need to do to ensure the reliability of the grid. Thank you, Dick.

Speaker 8

Excellent. And then just second question real quick. Can we get an update on the ComEd franchise agreement process?

Speaker 2

Yes. Right now it's status quo. You can appreciate the team has been very involved In the franchise and with the new mayor coming in line, he is assembling his team. Gil and the ComEd team have been Working very closely with him on several issues and really what we're talking about is that we had come to an agreement with the Life Wood Administration Earlier this year as you know on that franchise and the parameters of that proposal we have discussed with you on previous calls, But at this time, the mayor and I think the team is looking at those provisions and trying to make it his own, this administration's own. Gil, would you have anything else you'd like to add there?

Speaker 3

The only thing I want to add, Calvin, is that we have had initial conversations with them, and they had Informed us when they are ready, we will engage and restart our negotiations for a new franchise in Chicago. But in the meantime, our existing franchise agreement continues.

Speaker 2

That's very important for us. And in addition, Gil, I just want to recognize that Gil has been partnering with the mayor. He was just recently named to the Environmental Justice Transition Subcommittee for this mayor. So the team is plugged in with the administration and more why that's important is their understanding what their priorities are as a new administration I think that will play directly into the new franchise agreement.

Speaker 8

Wonderful. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.

Speaker 2

Hey, Paul.

Speaker 3

Hi, good morning, team. Thank you for the time.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 3

First, just wanted to get a little bit more clarity. If you could briefly comment on that SEC matter that you disclosed in the earnings results that you just out, does this fully resolve that legacy SEC investigation?

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, Col. It's Jean. So the SEC investigation is still ongoing, but we did reach a point where a loss contingency was probable. So we did book that. You can see it's treated similarly to how we treated the initial DPA amount.

Speaker 4

It's a non operating one time Non recurring item that is in non operating earnings. So it's continuing, but it is related to the investigation that began in

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Yes, I just want to clarify is that original stream?

Speaker 1

Okay.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 3

Great. And then second, just as we think about the long term, I know you reaffirmed the expectation midpoint or better 2023 plus, Just interest rates keep ticking up stubbornly like 50 basis points even since the last update. Could you discuss some of the areas of offsets, whether cost or otherwise to kind of

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll start and then I'll turn it over to Gene. As you alluded to is that We are seeing our customers are immune to the higher cost commodity prices that are going on across the country, but we have Always as a company been very aggressive in managing our costs, and that didn't change upon the separation. Our first and foremost priority Was ensuring that our costs didn't go up as a result of that separation, but let me tell you some of the things that we've done. We've realigned our real estate portfolio, Creating flexible work arrangements to rationalize our office footprint.

Speaker 2

We've automated we continue to look for ways to automate our work processes And really becoming more efficient and nimble in response to our customers' needs. And we've centralized our transmission operations to harness best practices And it's important to note that over the course of our since 2016 with course of our plan, Our O and M CAGR has only gone up 1.7% and the year over year growth is just over 1% in 2023. I say that to you to say that costs continue to be a primary focus of the organization and affordability for our customers. Having said that, we're not done. We're just scratching the surface as a leadership team to really look at how we're going to operate as 1 Exelon as a pure transmission and distribution utility Our company and we continue to focus on that.

Speaker 2

So that is what our focus is on day in and day out. Jean?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think that's Well said, and all of that helps to reduce the O and M and preserve the cash, which minimizes the amount also, that we need to finance in terms of our investments. So getting that Cash and redeploying it back into the business. The only other thing I will add is, on the interest rates, how we do, at the whole at the operating companies, We're stepping into new to sort of new rate cases. So the ability to recover the incremental interest there is important. But as the parent company, we do engage in preassurance hedging.

Speaker 4

And so being able to lock in with certainty ahead of time heading into a year, What that interest expense is, is important. So we'll continue those practices that helped us heading into 2023, and you can expect us

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Thank you for the color team. I appreciate it.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Paul.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan Securities LLC.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. This is actually Aiden Kelly on for Jeremy. Just wondering, would you be able to outline your current credit metrics relative thresholds and plan targets and how could this ultimately contribute to your $425,000,000 remaining equity?

Speaker 4

Sure. Hey, it's Jean. So on the current credit metrics, I think S and P and Moody's just recently published kind of the Prior 12 months, both were at 13%. And as we show in our slides and as I talked about on the script, as we look at our '23 through 'twenty six time period, we expect to be at that average of 13%. And as a reminder, our downgrade threshold is 12%.

Speaker 4

And that 12% is afforded to us and we don't take it lightly. That's why we have that cushion, but it's a reflection of our low risk

Speaker 1

platform, right? Diversity, scale, forward

Speaker 4

looking rate Right. Diversity, scale, forward looking rate mechanism, 75% decoupled revenues. So all of that put together, no generation, All of that results in a very low risk profile, but we like to manage at that 100 basis points or 200 basis points above that. So we're at the 13 as the REIT agencies just published, we expect to be at that 13%. If we get the corporate alternative minimum tax mitigated, we'd be closer To the mid hire, like that's 13.5%, 14%.

Speaker 4

And we're hopeful to know that final regulations or at least preliminary regulations by the end of the year. You asked how that relates to our equity. We have no change in Plans related to the 425. So said another way, if we got the corporate alternative minimum tax alleviated, we'd still do that 425. And so you can expect us to do that sometime between now and 2025.

Speaker 4

The last thing I'll say is just as it relates Moody's and S and P, there is a little bit of difference in the calculation. S and P will sort of trend at that 13% over the time horizon. Moody's, however, because of the calculation, there is some cash timing differences. So we expect to be sort of on the low end in 2023, 2024 and then on the higher end In the back end such that you average 13%. And that's really driven by some of the formula rate timing at ComEd with the true up coming In for 2022 and 2023 coming in, in 2024 2025.

Speaker 4

But that's sort of that's why we give you the average because we want to sort of neutralize some of that cash flow timing as well.

Speaker 9

Appreciate the color. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport from Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. You had mentioned kind of O and M levers to offset mild weather this year. So could you just talk a little bit about How O and M costs have been tracking relative to your expectations and then what you expect to see for the balance of the year from a rate of change perspective on O and M?

Speaker 2

So from initially, we've always maintained a philosophy that we will drive O and M costs Below the rate of inflation, now that was over the traditional rate of inflation that we've been experiencing over the last several years, keeping that around 2% to 2.5%. And as mentioned, we're trending strong and keeping our meeting our objectives of doing so. And that has always been our benchmark. The CEOs who are sitting around the table, we talk about keeping our O and M flat and seeing what levers are driving it to possibly go up, Which allows us that flexibility when you have unseasonally warm winters or anything else And PECO or the like because 75% of our rate base, our 73% is decoupled. So a lot of the weather impacts that you're talking about really focus on PECO primarily as the largest utility that's done.

Speaker 2

Having said that, we will continue to manage those costs. We never take our foot off the gas in doing so. Jean?

Speaker 4

Yes. And as it relates to the weather for 2023, we had a combination of offsets Across the platform, mostly at PECO, BGE and PHI, given ComEd has the formula rate true up on O and M. But across those 3 operating companies, we saw O and M levers, whether it was taking advantage of labor vacancies, lower T and E and contracting spend. And then in addition to that, PECO had some favorable depreciation. So the combination of all that was probably around $0.04 of the $0.07 of weather.

Speaker 4

And then we have the ComEd carrying costs, which were a benefit this year. And it's a benefit this year relative to last year because we did not have This large reg asset really sort of was built up at the back end of last year, and the interest Deposit rate on that was 0 per the commission. So we weren't getting an interest offset even though we were incurring interest on that last year. However, now and this year, it's a benefit both to last year and to guidance because we have the larger reg asset this year. And while we're still incurring the carrying costs on that, the ICC reset the deposit rate at 5% this year.

Speaker 4

And so relative to guidance, We are now having an offset to that that wasn't baked into our plan. So that's probably about $0.03 of the $0.07 So you put all that together, That's how we're offsetting the $0.07 of weather. And to Calvin's point, we just continue to focus on what else we can do to drive down those costs, And we're just starting to scratch the surface there.

Speaker 10

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just on the corporate minimum tax, I know you mentioned expecting to at least get Preliminary clarity there by the end of this year. But is there any color that you can share maybe from your discussions around the Sure on the tax repairs deduction and getting the gating factors to that being included.

Speaker 4

I would just say there it's probably not much else to share. There are ongoing discussions. Their Stakeholders remain receptive to the discussion and to the technical differences that the utility industry faces and being a very capital intensive Utility and some of the regulatory accounting, that overlays that capital intensive nature of our industry. So Receptive discussions ongoing. And I did mention earlier in the script, we did see some guidance come out in June that basically said, hey, if you think you're subject to this Tax, you won't be penalized if you don't pay it this year.

Speaker 4

We understand there's more sort of guidance and interpretation needed. And so that was just one other data point, but just ongoing discussions, and we remain hopeful that we'll have more clarity by the end of the year.

Speaker 10

Awesome. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI.

Speaker 11

Hey, guys. Good morning. We're close to the hour here. Thanks for giving me time.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 11

Good morning, Calvin. Good morning, Gene. So I just want to go back to the ComEd rate case real quick. And some of us were expecting an update From staff on the ROE calculation and the output itself, it seems like they're kind of using the same methodology and Using rates as of last year, just how do you see that progressing? Any thoughts there would be appreciated.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 4

I think as Gil mentioned, still more to come. We're still putting forth a strong argument around our proposed ROE. As you mentioned, they did not change their position. It appears to be sort of this continuation of the formula, which In CIGI, it was clear that the sunset of the formula rate was required. So, our filing offers in ROE that we feel appropriately Flex the actual cost of equity taking into account the current market conditions.

Speaker 4

So we'll continue to work through that process. I think there's that data point and then there's the electric proxy group, which is also another data point in the staff testimony. So We'll continue to work through that with them, but no changes as of this point.

Speaker 11

Got it. Okay. Sounds like we'll get an update here before the end of the year. Just switching gears, I have a question on supply chain and Calvin or anybody else in the room would love your views there. Just we've seen several media reports on transformer shortages.

Speaker 11

So maybe broadly, can you comment you have a sizable CapEx plan, obviously, but just broadly, can you comment on equipment shortages, labor shortages and how is that tracking This year versus let's say 12 months ago?

Speaker 2

Yes, I would tell you that one of the, I would say advantages is of being of our scale and our platform is that we're able to leverage the size to Not only access our current suppliers, but identify new ones. So to directly to your question, we have not seen a shortage In our transformers, we have not seen a shortage in workforce or any other things that are impacting us executing on this capital plan. Now what we do pay attention to as new business is coming online, our ability to give that Online and the timeframe that some of our customers are looking for because that wasn't part of that initial planned work. So we stay on top of that and working with our supply organization, but to date we are not experiencing those same issues that others may.

Speaker 4

I think one of the benefits of our profile rate of the $31,000,000,000 as we've talked about before, not one project is greater than 1% of that spend. So the ability to kind of Manage that portfolio in bite sizes to the extent we do experience any issues allows us to be able to stay on track and deliver.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thanks again, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I would now like turn the conference back over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Gigi, thank you very much. And I just want to always thank you all for joining us today. From the comments made today by Gene and I and the leadership team around the table, You see that we're focused and delivering on plan. So as always, appreciate your interest. And this concludes our call.

Operator

Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Exelon Q2 2023
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