Spire Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 2, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Spire Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Scott Dudley, Head of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Welcome to Spire's fiscal 2023 3rd quarter earnings call.

Speaker 2

We issued an earnings news

Speaker 1

Before we begin, let me cover our Safe Harbor statement and use of non GAAP earnings measures. Today's call, including responses to questions, may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Though our forward looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, There are various uncertainties and risk factors that may cause future performance or results to be different than those anticipated. These risks and uncertainties are outlined in our quarterly and annual filings with the SEC. In our comments, we will be discussing net economic earnings and contribution margin, which are both non GAAP measures used by management when evaluating our performance and results of operations.

Speaker 1

Explanations and reconciliations of these measures to their GAAP counterparts are contained in both our news release and the slide presentation. On the call today is Suzanne Sitherwood, President and CEO Steve Lindsey, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer And Steve Rasche, Executive Vice President and CFO. Also in the room today is Adam Woodard, Vice President and Treasurer and CFO of our gas utilities. With that, I'll turn the call over to Suzanne.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'd like to provide an update on Spire's quarterly performance, recent developments and outlook. Let me start with 3rd quarter results. We reported a loss of $0.42 per share for the quarter, well below last year's results and our expectations. The results this quarter reflect quite a few moving parts, including lower demand and the impact of milder weather this year, as well as high costs in the current inflationary environment.

Speaker 3

Steve and Steve will speak more about our results for all our businesses, both operational and financial. But it's important to point out that our Spire employees continue to do what they do best every day serving our 1,700,000 homes and businesses. In that spirit, know that we continue our efforts to create paths for more efficient and sustainable regulatory recovery, while ensuring we provide safe, cost effective and reliable energy for our customers and communities. Additionally, we are well positioned for a strong rebound in 2024 as interest rates moderate, cost structure management Progressive and usage related margin is restored. We continue to execute our midstream strategy through expansion and acquisition Our strategy is centered around highly contracted utility supply focused assets that produce steady and consistent earnings, much like our gas utilities.

Speaker 3

These businesses also bring longer term growth opportunities that take advantage the increasing demand for natural gas. We believe our future is bright. Spire is a strong, well positioned company with a proven growth strategy. We have confidence in that strategy and the ability of our experienced management team and employees to successfully execute our plan well into the future. We also have a skilled and experienced Board of Directors to guide us.

Speaker 3

Last week, we announced the election of 2 additional directors to our Board, increasing the size to 11, adding former executives who will build upon the strong oversight and governance Spire has enjoyed in the past. Emmy Farrar brings extensive financial industry experience, having served in various roles with Edward Jones, including Chief Operating Officer and CIO. Paul Coutts retired in 2020 after a 38 year career in the energy sector, including 2 decades at Dominion Energy, He has most recently served as the President, CEO of Dominion Power Generation Group. Now, I'll pass the call to Steve Lindsey.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Suzanne. Let me start with an update on our gas utilities. 1st and foremost, we continue to deliver our customers providing them safe and reliable energy with excellent service. Our employees stay focused on our key operating metrics targets, while also diligently managing costs. Financial results for our gas utilities in the quarter, a loss of $12,300,000 Reflects the benefits from new rates in both Missouri and Alabama, albeit during a seasonally lower volume period We're more than offset by mild weather on other items that Steve Rasche will cover.

Speaker 2

Across our service areas, the weather was 18% warmer than normal. Lower usage that was only partially offset by weather mitigation mechanisms in Alabama. In addition, Our interest expense is up significantly year over year due to more than 400 basis point increase in the short term interest rates over last year. Our gas cost balances continue to decline. We expect to recover our pre-twenty 23 deferrals by the end of the calendar year.

Speaker 2

This combined with lower commodity costs positions us well heading into next winter. We continue to pursue timely recovery pipeline upgrade investments in Missouri via ISRS. As you know in last quarter, Spire Missouri was granted $7,700,000 of new ISRS revenues effective May 6 for 2023. Fire Missouri filed on June 20th for an additional $14,200,000 in interest covering infrastructure upgrade investments for March to August time period. We continue to be very focused on controlling our O and M costs, to claw back some of our margin shortfall this year.

Speaker 2

Turning to our midstream segment, I'm pleased to note that the expansion of Spire Storage West, Our facility in Southwest Wyoming remains on track. The total project spend is $195,000,000 to expand capacity 16 Bcf to a total of 39 Bcf over the season and next. Given the current pacing of construction activity, the timing of our midstream investment is shifting with $20,000,000 moving out of fiscal 2023 and into fiscal 2024. Integration of Spire Salt Plains, a 10 BTF storage facility in Northern Oklahoma that we acquired In April for $37,000,000 is proceeding according to plan. In late May, we announced Planned acquisition of MoGas and Omega Pipeline Systems for $175,000,000 As a reminder, MoGas consists of Omega 75 mile distribution system, effectively an LDC that serves Fort Leonard Wood and South Central Missouri under a long term contract.

Speaker 2

The acquisition is expected to close around the end of the calendar year. One final comment on Midstream. Our Spire STL Pipeline continues to No further challenges or appeals being allowed to be brought. Turning to our capital investment, for the 1st 3 quarters of fiscal 2023, Our total CapEx was $483,000,000 with more than 90% invested in our gas utilities. Year over year utility spend increased more than 12%, reflecting over $300,000,000 for upgrading our distribution pipeline infrastructure and connecting more homes and businesses of our utility spend recovered with minimal lag reflected in earnings through new business investment.

Speaker 2

We'll continue our focus on infrastructure upgrades to support system safety and reliability while reducing methane emissions. We'll also maintain robust levels of investment in customer additions as well as innovation and technology, including advanced meters that enhance the safety, customer service and experience. In fact, we've upgraded 440,000 meters across our footprint since we began the program 3 years ago. Given our pace Construction so far, we expect our gas utility spend to increase $20,000,000 this year, essentially filling the gap for the $20,000,000 of midstream spend that's going to be shifted into fiscal 2024 that I mentioned earlier. As a result, our capital investment target for fiscal 2023 remains $700,000,000 With that, I'll turn it over to Steve Rasi for a financial review and update.

Speaker 2

Steve?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Let's review a few key points from our fiscal Q3. We reported a consolidated loss on a net economic earnings basis Just under $19,000,000 or $0.42 a share and earnings of $4,000,000 or $0.01 last year. And while an earnings delta of $23,000,000 is much bigger than we would like, it's important to note that roughly $10,000,000 of that difference relates to regulatory adjustments in Missouri and Alabama that we've discussed in previous quarters. Taking a quick look at the segments.

Speaker 4

Gas Utilities lost $12,000,000 compared to earnings of $4,000,000 in the prior year or a decline of roughly $6,000,000 after regulatory adjustments. That decline reflects new rates offset by the impacts of mild weather at higher costs. Both gas marketing and Our midstream businesses posted lower results reflecting less favorable market conditions. And we continue to see higher interest expense and corporate costs.

Speaker 5

Looking a

Speaker 4

bit deeper into our results, starting with revenues and margins and focusing on the net variance after adjustment column, Revenues were down almost 7% due to lower spire market and commodity costs, and you can see a similar reduction in natural gas costs. Contribution margins were also lower by $5,000,000 with gas utility margins representing half of that shortfall. In Missouri, Margins were up by $4,100,000 as higher rates were only partially offset by lower usage. Our lease margins were below last year by $6,600,000 with a few factors contributing to the shortfall. 1st, Lower year over year cost control measure or CCM benefit as Spire Alabama.

Speaker 4

Note that this is due in large part to the timing Prior year timing of recognition of the benefit booked in the Q3 and trued up in last year's Q4. So even though we got the right cadence of the CCM benefit by the end of last year, we had some noise between Q3 and Q4. It has no impact on our 2023 results, but it adversely impacts the comparison to the prior year this quarter by nearly $1,000,000 So excluding this prior year timing adjustment, Southeast margins were higher over last year by $1,000,000 in lower residential usage at Spire Gulf and lower margins due to ineffective weather mitigation at Spire Alabama. Turning to our other businesses, gas marketing margins were lower by $3,200,000 reflecting market conditions as well as higher demand charges and storage costs as we begin positioning for the upcoming quarter. Midstream margins were up slightly on an NEE basis after removing the results of Salt Plains, Our newly acquired storage facility that will be fully included in net economic earnings in fiscal year 'twenty four.

Speaker 4

Looking at other variances on Slide 9 and focusing again on the net variance column. Mass utility O and M expenses were up $8,000,000 with roughly 6 $1,000,000 in that variance due to Missouri regulatory recovery of overhead costs. Recall that these costs were deferred in the prior year, but are expensed this year. Remaining $2,000,000 increase in O and M was driven by higher third party expenses, offset by lower employee related costs And bad debt expense. As we continue to exercise expense control, gas utility O and M costs and bad debts in Missouri overheads Roughly 2.9% from last year.

Speaker 4

Other O and M expenses are trending as we would expect the underlying businesses. Interest expense remains elevated, up $17,000,000 from last year, driven by higher long term debt balances as well as higher short term interest rates. Other income was a turnaround from last year, up $10,000,000 driven by higher investment earnings, And finally, lower income tax expense tied to lower pretax income and an effective tax rate 18.2% year to date. I would note that we expect that rate to decline in Q4 due to the recognition of certain tax benefits. Cash flow for the year remains strong with EBITDA up 15% and our short term debt at the gas utilities down this quarter by $49,000,000 driven by recoveries of gas costs and repayment of the Spire Missouri term loan as planned.

Speaker 4

Non utility balances increased by $39,000,000 Turning to our outlook. We remain confident in our long term net economic earnings per share growth target range of 5% to 7%, as well as our rate base growth target of 7% to 8%. As you know, our current rate design concentrates our gas We saw that trend continue in the shoulder month of April. So even with continued cost control for the balance of this year, We don't anticipate that we can make up all of that margin shortfall. As a result, we are loading our Gas Utilities segment earnings range by $5,000,000 in reducing our 2023 net economic earnings per share target range by a nickel to $4.15 to

Speaker 3

to $4.25 per share.

Speaker 4

Rest assured, we remain well positioned for a good rebound in fiscal year 'twenty four as we regain demand, continue to reduce our deferred gas cost balances and short term debt control costs. Turning quickly to our financing forecast, we've rolled in our forward sale of common equity, which totals roughly $150,000,000 at quarter end. This position satisfies our equity needs for the rest of the calendar year. The positions will settle no later than this December. And as you can see here, our overall financing requirements drop off as we move into fiscal years 2024, 2025.

Speaker 4

So in summary, We're lowering our expectations a bit this year. We're on track for a rebound in 2024 and beyond.

Speaker 6

Beth, let

Speaker 4

me turn it back over to you, Suzanne.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Steve. In closing, we are well positioned to continue growing and delivering stronger overall performance for our customers,

Operator

Today's first question comes from Richard Sunderland with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Can you hear me?

Speaker 3

Yes. Good morning, Rich.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you for the time today. Starting with the guidance revision and just a couple of mechanical questions here. You see 1st and foremost the nickel lower on the range, But I think on gas utility net economic earnings, it's more of a $0.09 delta On a segment basis, curious if there are other offsets within that you're seeing or if this is in consideration of kind of where you are in the calendar? And then similarly, is that $4.15 midpoint original guidance still the base for the 5% to 7% Earnings CAGR.

Speaker 4

Rich, this is Steve. Good questions and good morning. The last The first question is, yes, the $415,000,000 is still the base for the long term earnings guidance target. On the revision of guidance, you're spot on. We continue to exercise all the controls we can in the time we have left this year.

Speaker 4

You know that we We earn our margins and recovery during the winter and early spring and so that ship has largely sailed. So we do expect after you take out the noise from regulatory adjustments that we're bending that curve down at 2.9% year over year versus a lot higher percentage Increased earlier quarters this year.

Speaker 5

Understood. Very helpful color there. And then diving into the results a little more closely, The weather impact, is that a similar kind of degree day calculation issue that you've referenced in Alabama in the past? And curious kind of what the path is to addressing that. Do you expect to, you'll have conversations around that in the near term or any other considerations around

Speaker 2

Rich, it's Adam. Yes, it is a similar dynamic there and we Do you intend to address that or continue to address that With the team and with the regulators in Alabama.

Speaker 5

Got it. Is that something that could be addressed in advance of 2024? Or is this a longer term process?

Speaker 2

It is. We do go through annual budgeting process that will be a topic of discussion.

Speaker 5

Got it. Understood. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Let's see, I wanted to check just is the original 2023 gas utility earnings power of 225 to 235, is that a fair baseline off of which you could grow going forward assuming that weather than expected or interest costs still being an incremental drag versus that?

Speaker 4

Yes. David, this is Steve. It's a great question. I think in this juncture, the answer is yes, because we have all of the mechanisms and the initiatives that we referenced in our prepared remarks really do get us back. We will clearly as we get to

Speaker 2

the end of the year and

Speaker 4

we get to typically our year and earnings call in November, we'll base everything, including reintroduce what our expectations are for all of our business lines going forward. But I would readily admit Yes. Interest continues to be a headwind and rates are going to be a little bit higher for a little bit longer, your bank and most of the folks say that And we'll have to factor that in and then what we can do on the other side in order to offset that headwind.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. And I was wondering if you could touch on the MoGas and Omega acquisition.

Speaker 7

Could you run through the financing plans for making that acquisition? What level of accretion You might be expecting from it and then would you expect there to be growth investments on the back end going forward?

Speaker 2

Sure. Sure, David. It's Adam. Yes, we did on announcement, we did Say that we would expect to finance on a balanced basis and in fact did go out and Escalate or bring forward some of our equity plans for the year. So have effectively financed the equity side of the ledger on the transaction already prior to closing.

Speaker 2

So we're we do expect it to be accretive. I don't think we've addressed exactly how much how accretive it would be. We do And the one piece I would add is in addition to the pipeline as most people think about it, it also comes with Omega, which is an LDC like opportunity, which is at the southern end, and that's on a long term contract. So we look for opportunities to continue to grow that piece of the business as well.

Speaker 7

Okay, got it. Makes sense. Just last quick question. I saw that equity needs, it looked like, ticked up slightly for 2024. Just wondering what was driving that?

Speaker 2

Yes. So we for the in the quarter, we moved forward, as I just mentioned on moved up our equity because of the acquisition and really pretty much exhausted our ATM authorization for the year and don't expect to be back in the market until early next year. That was not quite enough For our to completely satisfy our plans for 'twenty three, so that extra bid in 'twenty four is really us just moving Some of that remainder over into the next year.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. That's helpful. Thanks so much.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jason Fernandez with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Next question comes from Julien Dumoulin Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Guys, good morning. It's Julian here. Can you hear me?

Speaker 4

Yes, Julian.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Sorry, I apologize. I don't know what that was. But we got that resolved here. But with that said, thank you guys very much for Let me just follow-up here on a couple of different details here.

Speaker 6

First off, high level, just further interest in Gas pipelines or LDC here at this point. Now obviously watching the MoGas update here in the last couple of months. Just want to understand how you think strategically about the direction

Speaker 3

of the company. Let me start there and got a

Speaker 6

few follow ups. Let me start there. I've got a few follow ups.

Speaker 3

Juliana, it's Suzanne. And thank you for the question. As you're aware, because you and I have worked together since my arrival, pretty much since 2011, 2012. I was brought here to grow the company and So a natural gas company and predominantly we've grown, as you very well know, through acquisitions of utility companies, gas utility companies and the synergies and the efficiencies we get from finding these companies and also deploying technology and improving their operations and so forth, But also as a natural gas company, there are some strategic pipes at times and storage facilities that make And approach and we only do that in terms of acquiring and then we think it makes sense to ourselves, the company, I'm going to say ourselves, Fire E, Inc, the company we're acquiring and of course our shareholders. So again, as you know, we take a It's a pleasure to push on these kinds of things.

Speaker 3

Yes, we're in the natural gas business. We're predominantly a utility company, a gas utility company, and I think that's what you'll see in the years to come.

Speaker 6

Absolutely. Just wanted to clarify that, saw Bobby, upgrade. I mean actually, Suzanne, since you mentioned, I mean, as we've known each other for over a dozen years here, and through your leadership, have you guys come to any further Resolution or any sense of timeline on succession announcements and reshuffling?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for that as well. So as you know, I'm on the Board here at Spires. And one of the primary responsibility of the Board of Directors is the CEO position And governance and some other requirements. And so yes, they've taken a very methodical approach in terms of the search process.

Speaker 3

And as we've stated, they're Internal candidates as well as external candidates and the Board just want to make sure that they're managing their process in the most effective manner. And I'm retiring at the end of the year, so I suspect there will be some maybe before the year.

Speaker 6

Got it. Excellent. And if I can follow-up on the and thank you again for Suzanne for everything over the years. But if I can follow-up here on just a couple of nuances here. You guys alluded a second ago to some of The interest expense headwinds for 2024, you talked about rebounding.

Speaker 6

Can you just elaborate a little bit? I know this is probably a little bit of a moving target, but can you just As best you understand right now, maybe talk about what you're seeing in terms of that headwind here. And then maybe talk at the same time about Your FFO to debt expectations about where you get by year end in the 2024 period.

Speaker 4

Julien, this is Steve. Yes, if you think about interest rates, it's really the tale of 2 pieces, it's rates And your bank and everybody else, we make our predictions and it looks like it's going to be higher for longer and we'll see how that goes on. That's the uncertainty that we'll continue to manage. What we can manage is the amounts that we're financing. And as we outlined in the deck, We are seeing great traction in paying down our deferred gas costs and bringing our short term debt into line with our expectations.

Speaker 4

So we'll continue to manage that component of it, which you would expect us to and then we'll react to the market as the interest rate Environment and outlook clarifies a little bit. Adam, on the FFO, I'll let you

Speaker 2

Yes. We do Julian, we still Continue to see us tracking towards our target by the end of 'twenty four. It had made good progress coming out of the deferred position that we're in. So cash flow has been strong. We obviously need to lower the denominator a bit On that metric as well and that will come with further recovery.

Speaker 2

We do see that tracking into the end of 'twenty four when we would see us

Speaker 6

Got it. And that target being 15% to 16%, right, Adam?

Speaker 2

That's right.

Operator

The next question comes from Christopher Jeffrey with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning everyone. Just wanted to touch on the lower CCM benefit. And And it looks like that might be trued up in 4Q a little bit. Just kind of wondering, is that something that we should expect going forward as far as No potential timing consideration through the quarters.

Speaker 4

Yes, Chris, this is Steve. It's a great question. All of the discussion in CCM dealt with 22, but we're comparing year over year. And what we saw and it was well documented in all of Our disclosures last year is that we have after and in discussions with the, Alabama Public Service Commission and looking at the customer bills, we all agreed to spread the CCM benefit, which we used to recover in a very short period of time over a number of years. I believe it was over 5 years and originally it was shorter than that.

Speaker 4

So that agreement, Which was the right answer for our customers resulted in us changing the recognition of the CCM benefit in the Q4 of last year. So you got You have some scratchy timing stuff when you compare year over year. It has no bearing whatsoever on the CCM benefit, Which we like and it really does help us align with our customers in terms of keeping our costs under control. It's Just going to be one of those scratchy comparisons year over year this quarter. And then next quarter, you'll see it reverse in the other direction and we'll make sure to highlight it.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks, Steve. And then maybe just an update on your guys thinking about additional RNG projects to the one you have?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, we continue to work on projects and Have an interconnect working in or coming on online or expected to come online early next year in Eastern Missouri and have a project that we're close to talking more about on On the west side of Missouri here in the next few months, but we continue to examine And develop projects across specifically Missouri and really under the and continue to do that under the regulatory umbrella.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you all once again for joining us.

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