ING Groep Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 3, 2023

There are 18 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. This is Marion, welcoming you to ING's 2Q 2023 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. Before handing this conference call over to Stephen Van Rysweijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Group, let me first state that today's comments may include forward looking statements, Such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectations for our future financial performance and any statements not involving historical fact, actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward looking statements. A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward looking statement is contained in our public filings, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 20 F filed with the United States Secretaries and Exchange Commission and our earnings press release as posted on our website today.

Operator

Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation Good morning, Stephen. Over to you.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to our Q2 'twenty three results call. I hope you're all well. As usual, I'm joined by our CEO, Lilian Chortan And our CFO, Tene Poulko, and I'm pleased to take you through today's presentation. After that, we will take your questions. The Q2 was another strong quarter for ING, and we delivered good results, especially in an environment Characterized by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges.

Speaker 1

Our continued focus on our offering of superior customer experience Results in good organic growth. We added 227,000 primary customers with many customers in Germany, The Netherlands and Spain selecting RNG as a primary bank. The share of mobile only customers increased further and 60% of our retail customers only do business with us Through their mobile, our main channel. In Wholesale Banking, the volume mobilized to help our clients position to more sustainable business models Reached SEK 47,000,000,000 in the first half of twenty twenty three, a growth of 17% compared with the 1st 6 months of 2022. We continue to benefit from the positive rate environment and our total income grew by 23% year on year, mainly driven by high interest income and liabilities.

Speaker 1

Our 4 quarter rolling average return on equity increased to 11.7%, and we have achieved this We're operating on a very healthy CET1 ratio of 14.9%. On August 14, we will pay an interim cash dividend over the first half of twenty twenty amounted to €0.35 per share, which brings our total year to date distribution to shareholders to around €4,500,000,000 And before moving to the financial results in more detail, I will spend some time on the progress we're making in execution of our strategy and related targets. Then on Slide 3, our purpose and strategic priorities are shown. The first priority is to deliver a superior experience, which remains one of the most important reasons for customers to choose and promote ING as a primary bank. And as a result, it is one of the key drivers for customer growth.

Speaker 1

And to enable this growth, We continue to invest in our scalable tech and operations foundations and focus on offering a seamless digital experience. In the first half of this year, we have increased Straight through processing of retail customer journeys to 69%. And this means that 69% of our key customer journeys is handled Without manual intervention, we should be getting closer to our 2025 targets of over 75%. Another highlight this quarter is that in the Netherlands, 63% of our new clients were digitally on boarded, up from 52% at the end of last year. Our second strategic pillar is sustainability, where an important aim is to support our clients in their transition to more sustainable business models As our people are essential to putting sustainability into action, we organized our 1st Global Sustainability Week in June.

Speaker 1

And colleagues from around the world participated in more than 80 online and in person sessions to share knowledge, inspire each other and exchange views on how to make a difference both in and outside our work. We also expanded our product offering to help clients make energy efficient renovations. In Belgium, we launched a new eco renovation loan to support business banking clients in making their real estate more sustainable. Now we are moving to Slide 4, which shows our strength in a positive rate environment. The graph shows our total income since 2018, And it's clear that our continued focus on income diversification and our ability to capture loan growth through the cycle has paid off as we were able to offset the pressure from the lower rates And keep our income stable.

Speaker 1

Now that the interest rates have turned positive, the strength of our business model are highlighted. We have an attractive funding structure with over 60% of our balance sheet funded by sticky customer deposits. We have a proven ability to grow the number of clients and attract additional deposits, And this was again clearly evidenced this quarter through our successful promotional campaigns, which result in significant inflow of deposits in Germany, Our largest market in terms of number of clients and thirdly, through our diversification, which can capture loan growth through the cycle. And this was evidenced again this quarter with €2,700,000,000 growth in mortgages despite the fact that the number of transactions in the market was down significantly. And these positive impacts are already visible in the P and L with income being structurally higher than in previous years.

Speaker 1

And going forward, we expect continued tailwinds from these higher rates given the structure of our replicating portfolio. Around 55 percent of the €480,000,000,000 replicating portfolio is reinvested longer than 1 year We'll continue to reprice at higher rates in the coming years. Lastly, a return of loan demand and asset margins are a catalyst Slide 5 shows our financial targets for 25 and our performance in the first half of this year. On fee growth in daily banking, we see further room to increase or introduce fees. In Investment Products, the continued growth of accounts is a strong base fee growth when market confidence improves and further support will come from growth of lending fees when overall demand recovers.

Speaker 1

Higher fees and continued focus on income diversification will support total income growth, though for 2023, The main driver will continue to be liability NII. And while there are some uncertainties such as further central bank rate increases, Deposit tracking and customer behavior, the tailwinds from our replicating portfolio on liabilities will continue. This income growth will support an improvement of our cost income ratio, which has already declined to just over 54% On a 4 quarter rolling basis, our costs are well controlled despite the pressure from high inflation, and we also continue to invest in our strategy and neighbors And the marketing, which will support commercial growth and bring cost benefits in the longer term. On our CET1 ratio, We intend to move to our target of around 12.5% in roughly equal steps through our 50% payout of resilient net profit Combined with additional distributions, the next step will reflect the strong capital generation, and we will update the market with a disclosure of our Q3 Good to highlight here is that the Dutch Central Bank reduced the systematic risk buffer requirements for RNG from 2.5% To 2%, while at the same time increasing the Dutch countercyclical buffer from 1% to 2%.

Speaker 1

And as a result of these adjustments, our fully loaded SREP requirement decreased by roughly 32 basis points to 10.7%. And as a result, we will not adjust our CET1 target. Despite risk costs below our through the cycle average At no identifiable trends in provisioning, we remain vigilant as cost of living and doing business rises for our customers. And Driven by all these factors, we have confidence we will reach our target 12% return on equity. Then on to the 2nd quarter results starting on Slide 7, Which shows the continued strong development of NII.

Speaker 1

And liability NII was even higher than the shown headline number as accounting impacts shifted Some NII from Treasury and Financial Markets to other income. And the increase in liability NII reflect Further rate increases and continued deposit inflow, which was only partly offset by an increase of the core rates in some of our retail markets. The positive impact was also clearly visible in Wholesale Banking, where our Payments and Cash Management business benefiting from higher interest rates. In lending NII, we saw year on year pressure on mortgage margins due to the rising interest rates as client rates generally track Higher funding costs with a delay, while also income from prepayment penalties was negligible. Sequentially, this effect diminished And lending margins have stabilized.

Speaker 1

As mentioned year on year, we saw the impact of a temporary shift of NII to other income as treasury benefited From favorable market opportunities through money markets and FX transactions and for financial markets, rising rates and increased business Led to higher funding costs. And now accounting wise, this resulted in a reduction in net interest income, while other income Rows significantly. Our net interest margin for the quarter decreased by 3 basis points to 156 basis points, Fully driven by the increase of the balance sheet total, which more than offset higher NII. Slide 8 shows net core lending growth. In retail, mortgages continue to grow, mainly in Australia, the Netherlands and Germany, Despite the fact that mortgage transactions in Germany and the Netherlands dropped significantly.

Speaker 1

In Wholesale Banking, Loan growth was visible in lending. This was more than offset by lower utilization in working capital solutions and lower volumes in trade and commodity finance, reflecting a decrease in commodity prices and lower economic activity. Going forward, with still heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, We expect loan demand to remain subdued. We benefited from our diversified business model as we grew net Customer deposits was €17,000,000,000 primarily reflecting the success of our promotional campaigns in Germany, where we had €16,000,000,000 of deposit inflows. Roughly 2 thirds of this inflow came from existing customers.

Speaker 1

Also banking recorded a small outflow. Then we turn to fees on page 9, which showed growth year on year driven by increased deal flow in Wholesale Banking Lending And Global Capital Markets. In Retail Banking, the growth of primary customers and the increase in payment package fees was offset By lower fees year on year for investment products, which continues to be affected by less trading activity. However, the opening of new investment The conference continued and assets under management increased, which will result in higher fees when market activity recovers as we will grow from a higher base. Sequentially, fees were up, also reflecting an increase in fees in Wholesale Banking, driven by lending, lower capital markets and corporate Finance fee income for Retail Banking was stable.

Speaker 1

Now we move to Slide 10. Excluding regulatory costs and incidental items, operating expenses were up 6.9% year on year. This was mostly due to the effect of high inflation rates on staff expenses, reflecting indexation and CLA increases across most of our markets. We also continue to invest in growing our business, including higher marketing expenses, and these factors were partly offset by positive FX impact And the exit from the retail markets in France and the Philippines. Quarter on quarter expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items decreased With 0.5 percent despite higher staff expenses.

Speaker 1

Last quarter had included €44,000,000 of legal provisions and restructuring costs, Well, these amounted to EUR 22,000,000 in the 2nd quarter. Regulatory costs were down year on year As the Q2 last year had included a €92,000,000 contribution to the institutional protection scheme in Poland, Our contribution to DGS funds has decreased as well. The quarter on quarter decrease in our regulatory costs reflects the full payment of several annual contributions That we took in the Q1 of this year. Then risk costs In the next slide, that's Slide 11, where we which were €98,000,000 this quarter or 6 basis points Of average customer lending, below our through the cycle average of 25 basis points. This included a €39,000,000 Increase of management overlays, mainly reflecting the current inflation and interest environment as well as some regular model updates.

Speaker 1

The total stock of management overlays amounts to €560,000,000 at the end of the Q2 2023. In Wholesale Banking, risk costs include a few individual files. And this was, however, more than offset By a further release of our Russia related provisions as we continue reducing our Russia related exposure. Total offshore exposure With regards to Russia, amounted to EUR 1,700,000,000 at the end of the second quarter. Total risk costs in Wholesale amounted to minus 15 €1,000,000 minus €1,000,000,000 in Retail Banking, there were limited additions to risk costs in Poland, Spain and Belgium.

Speaker 1

In Stage 3, we saw modest inflow with no clear trends identifiable and the Stage 3 outstandings declined slightly This quarter, while the Stage 3 ratio remained low at 1.4%. The lower Stage 2 ratio Mainly reflected sales and repayments, including a further reduction of our offshore Russia related exposure. And all in all, A very benign quarter in risk costs and although cost of living and doing business rises for our customers, we remain confident in the quality of our land book. On Slide 12, that shows our CET1 ratio, which increased to a very strong 14.9%. CET1 capital was nearly €500,000,000 lower Asset distribution of €1,500,000,000 was largely offset by the addition of 50% of the resilient net profit for the quarter.

Speaker 1

Furthermore, risk weighted assets were €4,500,000,000 lower, including €200,000,000 of FX impacts. Credit risk weighted assets decreased by €5,600,000,000 mostly driven by model updates An improved profile of the loan book as well as disciplined capital management and Wholesale Banking. On distribution plans, we will pay an interim cash dividend of €0.35 per ordinary share over the first half of twenty twenty three on August 14. And we will update the market on our future distribution plans with our Q3 of 'twenty three results. And as mentioned before, The next steps to converge your CET1 ratio target of 12.5% by 2025 will reflect the strong capital generation.

Speaker 1

To wrap up with the highlights, a strong second quarter in which we delivered an excellent set of results. Execution of our strategic priorities delivered strong growth of primary customers and we increased our volumes mobilized to finance the transition to more sustainable business models. The financial results in the first half of the year clearly demonstrated our business model and strength position as well to benefit from the positive rate environment. Total income increased with growth across all segments and expenses remained under control. Our capital position remains very strong, and we are well positioned to continue providing a very attractive return to our shareholders.

Speaker 1

Going forward, I'm confident that we will continue to deliver robust financial results, while successfully executing our strategy. And with that, we move to Q and A.

Operator

We'll take the first question from John Peace from Credit Suisse.

Speaker 2

Yes, thank you. Good morning. So my first question just on net interest income. I realize that treasury swap reallocation to other income can be volatile from a quarterly basis. But should we be just adding on that reallocation to the current quarter's NII and seeing CHF 4,400,000,000 of NII It's really a sustainable base for the second half of the year and for 2024, given your comments about tailwind from the replicating portfolio.

Speaker 2

And second question, please, just on the cost of risk. Any guidance you might give us for the second half of this year relative to your Through the cycle rates, you obviously still carrying quite a degree of overlays, and I just wonder if there's any pressure to utilize those, which might keep the cost of risk very low. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much. John, I'll give the first question to Tien Tsin and then the second one to Liliana.

Speaker 3

Thanks, John. Just on NII, in particular, the 2 anomalies is really our positions on treasury Now position on financial markets. As we have given you in the last quarter, we guided that trades In treasury, it was likely to be about the same in Q1 and Q2, and that has been the case. Our expectation is that The opportunity will exist going into the second half of the year, but the impact will start to decline a bit in Q3. And in financial market, it really just depends on our trading position.

Speaker 3

That's too volatile to predict.

Speaker 4

Good morning also from my side. With respect to the cost of risk guidance, as you know, we generally do not guide on that category, And we refer to our low through the cycle 25 bps average compared to customer lending. However, as you've seen, The first half of this year has been very good for the also quality of our portfolio, has proven the resilience of quality of our portfolio. But also as CEO mentioned, we remain vigilant with respect to the uncertainty in the environment, and that's why we are sticking to our through the cycle average.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Giulia Miotto from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. My first question is on NII as well. You mentioned tailwind Tailwinds still to come, 55% of the replicating portfolio has a duration longer than 1 year. Given that we expect the ECB rates Peak and then start decreasing next year. When do you think your NII will peak Essentially, so timing of the peak of NII is my first question.

Speaker 6

And then the second question on asset The quality at the moment remains very benign, but is there any portfolio that you're watching more carefully in particular on the commercial real estate aside for instance or residential markets in the Netherlands or Australia? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Hi, Julia. Thank you. I'll give the second question to Liana. The first question, I'll do.

Speaker 1

To some extent, a similar question as The previous, as Jean. But look, I think that the good thing is that we are operating in a number of markets. So it's diverse And we continue to attract deposits. So one of the elements that's important are we continuing to able to get clients in, are we continuing to be able to attract deposits? And the second is, okay, what is the competition doing in these different markets?

Speaker 1

And the tracking speed so far has been Around 20%. And we will see need to see how that will develop, But it's still significantly lower than we've seen in previous cycles. And then of course, it also depends on the increase in interest rates that we see with the Now it's hard to predict what exactly will be, but people expect either 1 or 2 more hikes. But that competitive impact will remain to be seen and we will play our role to see, okay, how do we balance it out in terms of the role that we play in different markets. We're typically more A follower in, let's say, the incumbent markets in which we're active and where we grow the number of clients in the, let's say, the challenger markets that we Sometimes do marketing actions to attract customers like we have seen now in Germany, for example, and that led to also an incredible amount of SEK 16,000,000,000 additional deposits.

Speaker 1

The good thing is that interest rates at some point will rise, but we have a replicating portfolio whereby the majority, indeed, 55% Of our euro denominated deposits is replicated for longer than 1 year and that will be a good support Even when competitive pressure increases to further benefit from this interest rate environment and what the level exactly will be, We will need to see depending on the market circumstances.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Giulio. Also from my side, correct, our asset quality remains Strong and resilient as well in the Q2. And we do see some better prospects eventually for soft landing in some of the geographies we operate in. However, This uncertainty is still there. And thus, as said, we remain vigilant when it comes to the higher interest rate and inflationary environment And specifically across the portfolios that are experiencing higher, I would say, cost of doing business or higher borrowing costs, but as well for private individuals, Cost of living.

Speaker 4

That means that the obviously, focus is on the more cyclical parts of the portfolio. Clearly, we are looking at the commercial real estate and acquisition finance, but as well some other still energy intense manufacturing parts of our portfolio. So far, we do not see structural deterioration there, but that's also one of the reasons why we proactively take the measures

Operator

The next question comes from Raul Sinha from JPMorgan.

Speaker 7

2 from me as well. The first one, Stephen, I was just wondering if you think you have seen the peak in inflation pressure on the cost side. And the reason I ask that is because I think costs came in slightly below where the market was expecting. They seem to be analyzing just below where consensus is sitting For the full year, would you expect perhaps there to be more or less cost pressure in the second half of the year compared to what you've delivered here? That's my first question.

Speaker 7

And then the second question, just coming back on NII. Some of the other banks which do have Financial Markets businesses where the funding cost the Financial Markets business is still booked in NII, are moving towards banking NII definition, in particular HSBC I guess you guys have the same accounting asymmetry. So I was wondering whether you considered perhaps at your end to Refining the definition of NII or perhaps give us another measure in terms of IT NII. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Maybe I'll do the second question first. We're currently not considering to the final definition, but I can see that It requires some explanation because it indeed moves from NII to our income. As an aid, I'll give you the first question.

Speaker 3

Hi, Ro. Just on cost development in the second quarter, probably three things to note. The first on regulatory expenses is down €247,000,000 so right, a good evolution. We have guided the market already that by the Q1 of 2025, we expect that Regulatory expenses will be €400,000,000 lower than where we see it today, well, where we see it in 2021. And our expectation is that the regulatory expenses for this year will be approximately SEK 180,000,000 lower than previous year.

Speaker 3

So that's on regulatory expense. On OpEx, yes, we do see that the inflation pressure is coming down The publicly announced indexation in Belgium, which used to be 10% in December, by June this year has gone down to around 4.5 percent, so that pressure is coming down. But having said that, we also do spend more money in terms of client acquisition, in more advertising, and those are also And those are also present in our numbers. But a 7% OpEx clean for Volatility is a good guidance of where our OpEx have run-in Q2.

Operator

The next question comes from Tariq El Mejjad from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. A couple from my side. I mean, the first one on the revenues. Maybe just to Summarize a bit what you've been saying for my colleagues' previous questions.

Speaker 8

So I noticed in your slides, In Q2 slides that you've in the guidance sorry, the targets for total income, you removed the line We'd like above 10% total income growth for 2023. I mean, obviously, you are double that. I mean, Constancia, sorry, doubled that and you're showing strong trends. So Can you maybe update that guidance or tell us how you what you think about where consensus sits? Maybe that gives us a view on where the fees and NII trends And then second question is on the capital and distribution.

Speaker 8

I appreciate you're doing an update in Q3, But that's been an issue here for a while already where you clearly generate more capital than you can distribute, which is a good problem to have. But when you do the math, I mean, it's very difficult to imagine how you can convert with EUR 2.5 billion. And You reiterated that last Friday of the stress test today in every occasion, but I mean that implies a massive step up in distribution in the special every year starting from Q3. So is that something that's going to be on the table? And second question, How can you deliver that given the liquidation of the shares and so on?

Speaker 8

Does that mean that you will have also some cash special and not only buyback on top of The current run rates. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you, Tariq. Let me start on the capital distribution. If you indeed, I mean, we do the math as well. So indeed, our capital moved up again on the back of these And also on the good capital management, especially in wholesale banking this quarter.

Speaker 1

So what I also said in the presentation That we will give an update in the Q3, but that we also then see that the roughly equal steps If we want to move and we want to move to around 12.5%, that hasn't changed. And it also means that we need to The steps need to reflect the higher capital that we're having. So I think that what you're saying and I are saying are exactly the same With having that math in mind. Then on revenues, no, we're not giving additional guidance. I mean, above 10%.

Speaker 1

And with conference, I can say it's above 10%.

Operator

The next question comes from Benoit Pertac from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Speaker 9

Yes, good morning. Thank you for the presentation. Now just to first come back on the accounting asymmetry, which create a lot of noise, obviously. And maybe focusing on the financial market NII, Clearly quite difficult to estimate, but I understand that the trend was very much linked to The kind of ECB rate hike cycle, so when this cycle will kind of Top, we get probably a cut even at some point. It's fair to assume that the NI from the financial market will recover sharply potentially back to the previous level, but I wanted To check that with you first.

Speaker 9

And then on the stress test outcome, sorry to come back to that, but it was EUR550 Negative on your 3 in an adverse scenario. I think you were ending at just below 9% in the adverse scenario with the starting point at 14.5%. So can you really bring the CET1 ratio back to 12.5 given your sensitivity to an adverse scenario according to DCB? That will be the question. And also linked to the capital distribution, I was wondering if you think we can plug payout ratio Kind of blended, including buyback, above 100% if technically, there's no issue, because obviously, if you want to bring your capital down, we have to think about payout ratio above 100%.

Speaker 9

So I wanted To make sure we can do that without much problems. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Let me answer the question on CET1 and then Today, we'll talk about the Financial Markets NII. Bless you. With regards to CET1, and you mentioned stress test, it was, of course, a very insightful stress test. It was also quite a static stress test.

Speaker 1

And the input factors of that at this time had their impact on banks with presence more in the northern part of Europe, And that's what you see reflected. The stress does not talk about how would you respond to this stress, This typically is being done, but this is just a stress test, which is good and we do many stress tests. And then separate from that, we have very good capital of 14.9%. We have a targeted capital ratio of 12.5 percent that we've also at the time agreed that when we set it agreed with the ECB. And we are confidently moving in roughly equal steps to the 12.5%.

Speaker 1

And that also means, and you're right, that That's mathematical calculation. That means that on aggregate, we need to pay out more than 100% of our profits to get there. So We are calculating as well and giving you an update in the Q3.

Speaker 3

And Benoit, just on NII, it really is more volatile and harder to predict, but it depends really on two factors. The first one, I think we'll be sustained for some time to come, which is that the absolute cost of fund is higher, right? That clearly will be visible In coming quarters, but at the same time, it also depend on our trading strategy, on the product mix demanded by our customers. So I think it remains a volatile line item from an NIIFM perspective.

Speaker 9

And if you think about 2024 on the FM and I, kind of do you think we can go back to the

Speaker 3

Borrowing cost is higher given central bank rates, and it depends on the product mix from our clients.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 10

Yes, hi, good morning. Two questions. One to follow-up on 12.5%. Is there any material This growth inflation left from a regulatory point of view in your view. And so to say, By 2025, would you keep a buffer for a cyclical deterioration when your risk rates increase in that?

Speaker 10

And then secondly, a bit more high level of what a bigger picture Question. Anything on AI you would like to flag you're currently doing or opportunities to see going forward? Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Sorry, the second question, Arden, can you talk about AI? I think more to talk about AI. Okay. So let me start with the second one. So we currently do use AI in a number of our processes, such as contact centers or collections Or marketing propensity models, for example, that helps us.

Speaker 1

And that can also help better decision making if you do it in a fair and transparent way. That's the most important thing, especially with AI. When we talk about generative AI, yes, that is new. Currently, in ING, we have forbidden people to use generative AI in In the ING processes and we will in a sandbox experiment with 2 initiatives Just completely separate from anything else to better understand what the benefit is because it could have a benefit, But also how we can control it. And before we are able to control it, we will not roll this out in the organization.

Speaker 1

We first will separately test it as we always do with innovations And then see, to what extent we will roll this out in the organization. With regards to the capital, yes, with With regards to the RWA, there were 2 elements. I will answer one of them. If you ask, are you keeping a buffer in the RWA, I think what you could you may mean is, to what extent are you taking countercyclical buffers into account in your capital levels, In this case, around 12.5%, and we have. So all the capital levels and the buffers are all in the 12.5%, so we've taken it into account.

Speaker 1

And then you also said something about Basel IV or regulatory impact on ROA. For that, I give the floor to Liliana.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning, Benjamin. As we've informed you several times, we have through our models or through the overlays absorbed most of the expected regulatory RWA inflation ahead of 2025 Basel implementation. But as also said several times before and also seen this quarter, there are some quarterly adjustments that come from the regular life of the model life cycle, Which can be related to methodology or policy update or calibration of existing models. And these impacts or these velatilities might come in or revert back.

Speaker 4

But through the cycle and as already, the majority of the or the impact has been taken into account in existing numbers.

Speaker 10

Thank you. So it really is more than 100% payout to get to the target. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Kiri Vijayarajah from HSBC.

Speaker 11

Yes, good morning, everyone. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, coming back to the deposit campaign in Germany, just a bit more color there on what Thinking was, was it about accelerating the primary customer number because it did feel like you'd lost a little bit of momentum at the 1Q And stage, when I compare you to the run rate of last year, or was it more about managing your overall deposit numbers because You may have had I think you did have some outflows on the wholesale side, so you wanted to sort of compensate there. And should you view that campaign as a one off? And Or could we see more of those deposit campaigns being repeated in some of your other geographies?

Speaker 11

And then secondly, turning to the loan growth side, it all looks Fairly robust and well balanced across different divisions and geographies. Is the aim to put The deposits to work quite quickly into loan growth, in which case maybe you're hoping to see a bit of a pickup. Or are you happy to let those that cash Flow into the replicating portfolio. I guess I'm ultimately asking how sticky you think those new deposits are In terms of how you're going to redeploy that? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Good. Last questions. Thank you. Now the deposit campaign in Germany was focused on gaining customers. And I don't know how many of you know, but we have a stated ambition of getting to 10,000,000 customers in Germany By the end of 2025, we're currently at 9%.

Speaker 1

Of the deposit inflows, Over 2 thirds came from existing customers, which is good. Typically, customers that Already existing and they bring more money to the bank are more sticky, so that's helpful. And we will always like we've done also in that we have A lot of experience with marketing campaigns over the past number of decades. We're of course a big part of our business retail banking in many countries And in countries where we want to grow our customers, we now again have promotional rates, so not core rate increases, but promotional rates To attract customers and we do that at a as well as we can times moments. And in this case, we were the 1st big bank who So, whenever there is opportunities, we will look at it further in all the markets in which we're active.

Speaker 1

And in general, I said typically in the incumbent markets of the Netherlands and Belgium, We will be more of a follower and we can be more assertive in these promotional campaigns in other markets, but that really depends on the market circumstance. When it comes to loan growth or poorly disposals to loan growth, look, in the end, we are really focused on being prudent here. What you see is that the mortgage market has come down and the biggest three markets in which were active, that was about 80 And of our total mortgage portfolio of a bit over SEK 300,000,000,000 comes from the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. And in these markets, the new dwellings that are being sold Are down between 40% 50%. So in that sense, the market is benign or is not actually And so what was good is that we were able to increase the number of mortgages sold and increase our books, But on a relative scale, it is limited and the focus is on making sure that people can repay And we do not lose our credit standards because we now have more deposits and we remain very vigilant of what's going to happen in the next quarters.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Amit Goel from Barclays.

Speaker 5

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got a few just relating to the Slide 16 replication Portfolio. So, one, I just want to check on the size of the books. It seems to have grown from about €460,000,000,000 in Q3, €480,000,000 So this outpaced the growth in the deposits.

Speaker 5

So just curious how you're Driving the size of that portfolio and the incremental piece, how you're reinvesting that? Secondly, in terms of the 55% of the book, which is greater than 1 year, can you give us an idea of What the duration is on that part of the portfolio or how that's structured? And then lastly, Just on the pass through, just curious, I guess, relative to the average rate of 20% during the quarter, How that's kind of tracking towards the end of the quarter and into the start of Q3? Thank

Speaker 1

you. Denae, this seems like a lot of questions for you.

Speaker 3

Well, Amit, thank you very much. The level of deposit growth is really something that is driven by customer growth, customer And the prevailing market. So from that perspective, the growth in debt liability is actually welcome from that perspective. And unlike when we were in negative rates, liability replication was actually P and L Negative, but now replication is P and L positive, so that's a good sign. And we have given you this guidance on replication 45.55.

Speaker 3

And from that perspective, we see that we replicate about that same level Depending, of course, on different market as well. At the pass through rate, we are at about 20% as of the end of Q2, We expect that year to date, it's around 29%.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. Just on the size of the replication portfolio, I guess just what I was checking there was when you gave disclosure, I think at Q3 2022, you said the size of the book was about EUR 461,000,000,000 So obviously that's growing from 4.61 to 4.80 now. It seems like the Book growth has outpaced the kind of the growth in actual customer deposits. So I just wanted to check what's driving the size of the replication portfolio and can we expect that portfolio to continue

Speaker 3

So I think the expectations is that as maybe the market starts To slow down loan on deposit growth and then the replication portfolio will be less. And if like we see in Q3 demand for deposits continued to come into the bank, then it will be more.

Speaker 5

Got it. And you're seeing a pass through, I think you said, of 29%, is that correct?

Speaker 3

Yes. Yes, year to date.

Speaker 5

Yes. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Flora Bockahut from Jefferies, please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes, thank you. The first question I had is actually around the ROE target of 12%. I think this is a target you have on the CET1 that would be 12.5%. You're obviously at 12 Over the last four quarters, but that's on a CET1 that is north of 14.5%. So the question here is really Why stick to that target?

Speaker 12

I know you don't like to update those targets too often, but we've had many other banks updating our retarget this year. So Is there anything that's holding you off from upgrading the ROE target towards 2025? Is there anything negative that you expect We'll change the picture. And then the second question is regarding the ongoing share buyback. I've been surprised by The speed at which it's been conducted so far in the sense I know it's not in your hands that there is a mandate towards another investment bank, but In the sense that at this space of buying just €4,000,000 a day, it would take beyond the deadline.

Speaker 12

So can you just confirm that With certainty, the €1,500,000,000 buyback will be finished at the deadline, even though that implies A significant increase in the daily volumes that need to be bought until the deadline of 18th October. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you, Flora. So on the share buyback, we can confirm with certainty the share buyback will be finalized in October. And then on the ROE targets, look, we have said that we gave Indications at the investor presentation and that if we will give an update, we do that once a year after the 4 quarter results and That's how we do it. And otherwise, we need to give updates every quarter.

Speaker 1

So we stick to that yearly cadence.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Operator

I'm sorry, I was on mute. We'll take the next Question is from Guillaume Sebergen from JMP Paribas Exane.

Speaker 13

Good morning. Thanks for the question. So the question relates To the RWA in the Wholesale division, I understand demand is weak and you expect it to remain subdued. I understand your models can go up or down depending on the model cycle, but I'm more interested in how you think About the strategy for the RWA development in the CIB, what do you actually want to do? Do you want to Continue to land with lower density, landless.

Speaker 13

So can you just elaborate a little bit about your strategy for growth In RWA in Wholesale. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you for the question. Clearly, we are a bank that is focusing on very strong large corporates and we have strong knowledge In a number of sectors, and we have had it for decades, we stick to those sectors and we stick to those corporates. So there is not a change in Risk structure or in risk appetite? At the moment, we do see some lending pickup in Large lending deals, but at the same time due to lower commodity prices, we also saw an impact in lower traded commodity finance, which outpaced that lending income.

Speaker 1

Markets remain relatively uncertain given also the economic outlook. But what we do work on is, First of all, to continue our strides to do the to help customers to transition to more sustainable business models in In light of the Paris Climate Accord, so that's what we focus on. But secondly, we're still very much an underwrite to hold bank, And we also work on better capital velocity, which basically means that we will Increasingly also underwriting and sell, and that's what you have also partly seen now in the Q2 coming in, that part of the decrease in RWA and Wholesale Banking was because we started in We're also moving and doing more in capital velocity. Last but not least, also we have further deleveraged our exposure in Russia. We continue to do that.

Speaker 1

Currently, our total exposure in Russia is €1,700,000,000 but came down from a couple of €100,000,000 higher earlier this year And that has also led to some RWA release. So those are two factors. And I mentioned already the strategy we have regarding the Wholesale Banking lending and capital velocity.

Speaker 13

Thank you. Can I just do a small follow-up on the deposit beta? I didn't hear earlier, did you So you're at 29% at the end of the quarter?

Speaker 1

So until now we had 20%, but with the rate increase of the Netherlands as per August 2015, The tracking will be 29%.

Speaker 13

I see. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Hallum from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Yes. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Just 2 of them. So first on capital allocation, you've talked a lot already about distribution.

Speaker 14

But if

Speaker 8

you look at the

Speaker 14

businesses, you're running well ahead of that ROE target at 12.5 Quarter 1, cost of risk is very low with those overlays still there. So given that, are there any business areas where you're now considering more capital, Putting more capital to work versus when those targets were initially calibrated, I. E, more capital intensive areas. You touched on this already for the CIB, but just perhaps For the broader group, that's the first question. And then a follow-up is to an earlier question on deposit growth in Germany.

Speaker 14

Is there any color you're able to give on the Marginal cost of attracting those deposits. Obviously, there are some big headline deposit offers out there in Germany from some other players. And I was just wondering how we should think Marginal deposit funding cost versus the aggregate cost?

Speaker 1

Right. On the first one, capital allocation, we will always look to optimize capital allocation. We have Return Equity targets for and Wholesale Banking and Business Banking and Retail Banking And we priced the marginal deal, and we're not going to deviate from that because we now have more capital. We want to continue to grow With prudency in all the markets in which we're active, big focus also in further growth in Germany, like I said, growth in retail customers. And we want to strengthen our network position that we have as a wholesale bank across the world.

Speaker 1

But again, we do that in the existing framework Of pricing the marginal deal to the return. If we can't make that and if we can't make the client return holds, we will not do it. No deviation from that. Secondly, on the deposit growth in Germany, that marketing campaign at the time was on at 3%. So also we made money on that marketing campaign because the ECB rate at that time was already higher.

Operator

The next question comes from Farquhar Murray from Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Good morning, all. Two questions, if I may. Firstly, on capital management, kind of 2 competing signals in recent months. 1, the cut in the OSI buffer And the other the heavy drawdown on the stress test. I just wondered if you could outline how those play through into the discussions on the 3Q update and more generally the dialogue with the ECB.

Speaker 15

On paper, I think the stress test should feed into the P2G in some way. So I wouldn't mind just some color around that. And then secondly, just coming back to Benoit's question on the financial markets NII, if I look back more than a decade, I don't have a period where FM NII was negative, though it is volatile. But your answer to Benoit seems to suggest that if I think rates remain more normal from here, I should build in a structurally negative NII for FM With a positive counterpart in other. Am I understanding you right there?

Speaker 15

And how do I square it with the history? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Regarding the lower capital buffer of the DNB at the time That buffer came in, that was at the time that there was no 3 pillar system in Europe. So the ECB We haven't started this yet and there was no SRB and no European deposit system. And in that setting, Local supervisors increased buffers for their large banks. Let's put it too big to fill buffer.

Speaker 1

Increasingly, banks have increased our own capital and there is now that 3 pillar system in Europe, As a result of which, that has undoubtedly wait for DNB to, in the end, decrease the buffer. And that means that the overall capital requirements that I just said, they moved to approximately 10.7% And therefore, that's further in line with our around 12.5%. And regarding the stress test, the stress test is a stress test As there are many stress tests, we do a number of stress tests internally as well that we share with the ECB and with our supervisors, And that has no bearing currently on our 12.5% target, and we remain in positive discussions with the ECB About the next steps that we would then be then to take, we will update you further in the Q3.

Speaker 3

Then, Francois, on NII and Financial Markets, maybe a bit more nuance in the answer. It's 3 things, right? The absolute rates are higher, But it also depends on the product mix and also depends on the differences between major currencies, the arbitrage between euro, dollar, for example, Right. So I wouldn't call it that you should be looking at a structural increase in NII of that such, but I remain that Funding cost is higher, but that it just depends on these three things, which remains volatile in the financial market results.

Speaker 15

But just as a more general question, if I think of things as normalizing from here, should I build in a structurally negative NIIFM? Is that the Permanent structural outcome from here.

Speaker 3

No, I think it just depends on movements, right? You have, for example, opportunities, trading opportunities, Product mix from customers. So I wouldn't structurally put it in like at the levels that you see in Q2, but at the same time, funding costs are higher.

Speaker 15

Equally, should I maybe transition back to history? Would that be a more reasonable guesstimate?

Speaker 3

I would not say that That would be a good guidance either in light of current interest rate environment.

Speaker 15

Great. Many thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from Matt Clark from Mediobanca.

Speaker 16

Good morning. Two questions, please. Firstly, on risk weighted assets, looking at template CR8 in your Pillar 3 Disclosure. You've had a kind of a tailwind for IRB risk weighted assets from asset quality in the past few quarters And also a tailwind from the other category there of a couple of €1,000,000,000 per quarter. I was just hoping you could give some explanation there about why the asset quality is getting better.

Speaker 16

It's a bit counterintuitive. And what the other benefit to your risk weighted assets, Which has been quite meaningful, has been. And then secondly, on the kind of cross currency Interest rate arbitrage trades, if this impact started around Q3 last year And you seem to be saying it's going to last a bit more into the Q3 this year. Is it the right conclusion to draw that You put these trades on with a kind of 12 month duration. Just trying to work out how long you're willing to tie up your balance sheet for in these Trade is a general rule when the opportunity arises.

Speaker 16

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Okay. Tenet, the treasury across FX trades?

Speaker 3

That trade and that the environment for that trade continue to exist, But it should decline over the next 3 months, but guidance for 12 months that I think just too many factors to factor in. So I think the trade risks is It's going to decline somewhat in Q3.

Speaker 16

But if I understand it right, you put these trades on For a defined term and you kind of lock in at the inception, The economics of spread and then how much it impacts your NII will depend on the relative interest rates The U. S. Versus euro, but the economics of the deal itself will be defined at the outset. I understand your question.

Speaker 3

Yes. No, I completely understand your question. These trades are tended to be short in duration.

Speaker 16

And by short, you mean?

Speaker 3

I don't think we're going to give our trading positions on an analyst call, but let's say that The trade exists, it will decline in Q3, and that's our guidance.

Speaker 16

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Okay. Liliana, RWA.

Speaker 4

Good morning. And as we know, RWA size and dynamics depend on a number of factors, And it's subject to volatility based on both internal and external factors. What you have noticed based on the decrease Due to asset quality is driven by several reasons. The most significant one is successful derisking of Russian exposure, which has taken a Huge amount of our RWA in the 'twenty two and is now at $4,500,000,000 compared to even $13,500,000,000 a year ago. So that's one that is first.

Speaker 4

2nd one is clearly the structure and quality of your loan book impacts the RWA from the Perspective of the tenor, so what's the structure of your short term versus long term exposure, but as well, what is collateral that you're having behind? 3rd, there is clearly a dynamics in the portfolio where there are certain repayments of the higher rating I mean, worse rating classes in favor of the ones better rated. And all of these together might have offset some of the negative, Example, impacts from the environment like housing price. But let's not forget there as well, we do have a floor on some of our portfolios. So these negative impacts from the environment might have been already encountered for.

Speaker 4

So in general, that's the overall picture.

Speaker 16

Thank you. And specifically, this other line that's also been quite meaningful on that table, 1,700,000,000 of benefit this quarter.

Speaker 4

You would have to be more specific Which exact line? Because I do not have a template in front of me.

Speaker 1

Why don't we come back to that?

Speaker 16

Okay. I'll take it offline.

Speaker 1

Yes. Well, then we take it offline with Media Relations, yes? Thank you. Sorry, Investor Relations. I'm being correct, sir.

Operator

We will take the next Question from Anke Rangan from RBC.

Speaker 17

Thank you for taking my question. Just 2 small ones, please. On the capital distribution, is there the comment about roughly equal steps? Could that be under review with your Q3 We update because the commentary seems to be a bit more that it could potentially a bit more. And then secondly, on the costs, Do you think the 7% growth year over year is a good indicator for the full year trend?

Speaker 17

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. So with roughly equal steps, we meant roughly equal steps in terms of CET level moves. So if I translate that, that if there are if there was a bigger delta between 12.5 Where we are in our capital, we need to make bigger CET moves to come down. So and that's what we will reflect. And a few of our colleagues already said, hey, but mathematically that means that you would need to do more to get to those roughly equal steps.

Speaker 1

And I've confirmed That I have also made that same calculation. With regards to the 7% run rate, yes, that's indeed what Sinead said. That's a clean cost increase of this quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago is 7%, which is Inflation, but also the investment that we make in our digitalization and marketing and growth efforts for customers, that is a good run rate trend that we currently see.

Speaker 17

Thank you.

Operator

As there are no further questions, that will conclude today's question and answer session. I will hand the call back To Mr. Van Weisweig for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, operator. That is the end of the analyst call, But not before I thank Marieke Becker, because she has been working vigilantly over the last number of years to keep us sharp and also have good conversation with all of you Anne made all these fantastic presentations, so I would like to thank her. She's going to move on in ING. She's going to work In another part of RNG and we're very happy that she remains with RNG, but I want to express my appreciation for Marieke.

Speaker 1

And I would like to thank you all for, again, listening and for your questions. I wish you a great day and also wish you a great summer. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
ING Groep Q2 2023
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