Lear Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 6, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Lear Corporation 4th Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ed Lowenfeld, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Jamie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Lear's 4th quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. Presenting today are Ray Scott, Lear President and CEO Jason Carthew, Senior Vice President and CFO. Other members of Lear's senior management team have also joined us on the call. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q and A.

Speaker 1

You can find a copy of the presentation that accompanies these remarks at ir.lear.com. Before Ray begins, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that as we conduct this call, we will be making forward looking statements to assist you in understanding Lear's expectations for the future. As detailed in our Safe Harbor statement on Slide 2, our actual results could differ materially from these forward looking statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10 Q and other periodic reports. I also want to remind you that during today's presentation, We will refer to non GAAP financial metrics. You are directed to the slides in the appendix of our presentation for the reconciliation of non GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

Speaker 1

The agenda for today's call is on Slide 3. First, Ray will review highlights from the year and provide a business update. Jason will then review our Q4 financial results and our full year 2024 outlook. Finally, Ray will offer some concluding remarks. Following the formal presentation, we would be happy to take your questions.

Speaker 1

Now I'd like to invite Ray to begin.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ed. Please turn to Slide 5, which highlights key financial metrics for the Q4 and full year 2023. They generated record revenue in of $23,500,000,000 an increase of 12% from 2022. Core operating earnings grew by 29% to $1,100,000,000 Adjusted earnings per share was $12.02 an increase of 38%. Operating cash flow improved by 22% to over $1,200,000,000 We exceeded our free cash flow conversion target of 80%.

Speaker 2

Slide 6 illustrates key business and financial highlights from 2023. The acquisition of IGB increased our thermal comfort capabilities and allowed us to accelerate development of our modular Seating Solutions. Customer interest continues to grow. We have 15 projects in process with 11 customers to replace individual components with modular solutions. 12 of our customers have agreed to allow Lear to source the Thermal Comfort components for 18 different complete seat programs.

Speaker 2

This control allows us to grow the sales of our thermal comfort products and continues to differentiate our complete seat systems from competitors supporting further market share gains. We successfully launched production of the complete seats for the Wagoneer and the Grand Wagoneer, an unprecedented conquest award that we took over mid program. In E Systems, we won over $1,000,000,000 of new business awards For the 3rd consecutive year, we're making progress on diversifying our customer base. We won significant awards with General Motors and Stellantis. We won our first wiring program with BMW, and we received additional awards from a large global EV OEM as well as Renault and Geely.

Speaker 2

Total company sales were a record, while our core operating earnings improved year over year for the 4th consecutive quarter, driven by continued improvement in E Systems margins. Our strong performance in cash conversion allowed us to accelerate the pace of share repurchases. Through the second half of the year, we repurchased over $175,000,000 worth of stock in the 4th quarter for a total of $313,000,000 in 2023. Industry publications continue to recognize Lear for our excellence in quality and culture, including our most recent award last week when Fortune Magazine named Lear is one of the most admired companies for the 8th consecutive year. Slide 7 highlights some of our upcoming key launches in Seating.

Speaker 2

We have launches in all of our key regions with a wide range of customers. In 2020 the 2024 launches include a combination of next generation vehicles, replacing outgoing models where we are the current supplier as well as several brand new vehicles. In addition to assembling the complete seat, we provide a variety of vertically integrated components such as foam, trim and thermal comfort products. The Hyundai Santa Fe is the 1st vehicle with a production application for our Flex Air, fully recyclable foam alternative. Flex Air will be utilized in the Santa Fe's 3rd row cap rest.

Speaker 2

We have a long standing relationship with Hyundai and are their largest independent seat supplier with about 40% of their external business. We have several launches for BYD this year, including the Sea Lion as we continue to expand with this fast growing Chinese automaker. Turning to Slide 8. I will touch on key product launches in each systems. Several programs are launching with Lear's high voltage and low voltage wiring and connection systems, as well as key electronic components across all of our key regions.

Speaker 2

We continue to grow with Volvo. We supply wiring electronics on several nameplates across their CMA and their SPA2 platforms. Electronics sets of the high power junction box are leveraged across both hybrid and fully electric vehicles, providing a balanced exposure across these growing powertrains. Later this year, our BDU will launch On the Ram 1500 Rev, solidifying our position as a leader in high performance BDUs. 2023 was our 3rd straight year with over $1,000,000,000 of business awards in these systems.

Speaker 2

Approximately 80% of those awards on programs that are new to Lear, which will further grow and diversify our business over the coming years. Turning to Slide 9, I will illustrate key Lear developed innovations we are bringing to market this year. Late last year, we began delivering production parts for the InterCell Connect board to support GM's launch of the Altium platform. Volumes for the ICB will grow with the launch and ramp of additional Altium based vehicles. Are leveraging our engineering expertise along with our molding and stamping capabilities to pursue opportunities to supply ICBs to additional customers.

Speaker 2

We anticipate these programs will be awarded later this year. Proceeding, we are launching 2 new sustainable products in 2024, Flexair and ReNuNip. The first commercial application of our Flexair material will be for the calf rest in the all new Hyundai Santa Fe. The 29 development projects we have with 13 OEMs for application of Flex Air Throughout the vehicle seating system is evidence of the tremendous customer demand for this very innovative new product. Flex Air is a 100% recyclable alternative to molded urethane cushion.

Speaker 2

It provides up to 20% reduction in weight and up to 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Its open air structure has better cooling and ventilation characteristics the urethane, further improving the performance of our thermal comfort modules. Flex Air is an attractive sustainable alternative for the roughly $4,500,000,000 foam market, which we believe will support continued growth of our component business. Lear's exclusive license for automotive applications, along with 190 patents we have filed creates a competitive moat around this very innovative technology. We're also starting production for Renew Net, which is launching with 3 different OEMs this year.

Speaker 2

Our suede alternative is the 1st to market automotive textile that is fully recyclable at the end of its life. We are seeing tremendous interest from our customers for sustainable alternative fabrics. Renew Knit is also a finalist for the Automotive News PACE Award, Once again demonstrating our ability to develop and bring innovative products to market and add value for our customers. These innovative products combined with Lear's competitive positioning is a leader in seating will allow us to achieve our revenue growth targets while continuing to increased operating margins and financial returns. Now please turn to Slide 10, which shows our 2024 to 2026 sales backlog of approximately $2,800,000,000 As a reminder, our core sales backlog includes only awarded programs, net of any lost business and programs rolling off.

Speaker 2

It excludes Pursuit Business, net new business in our non consolidated joint ventures and the roll off of the discontinued product lines in these systems. Due to the slower pace of the industry transition to electrification, we now anticipate lower volumes on several of our key customers' new programs as compared to what we assumed last year. By continuing to win new business, we have maintained a 3 year backlog that is a similar size to that of to that last year despite the significant changes in volume assumptions. The $2,800,000,000 backlog is roughly in line with last year's backlog and is well balanced across the 3 years. 2025 is impacted by the assumed roll off of several ICE vehicles that may or may not come to fruition, depending on the pace of the EV transition.

Speaker 2

At $800,000,000 the 3rd year of our backlog is higher than a typical 3rd year. We expect that to increase further as customers continue to source new programs launching in 2026. In addition to the consolidated backlog, the 2024 through 2026 sales backlog at our non consolidated joint ventures continues to grow. Our 3 year backlog at our non consolidated joint ventures increased approximately 70% from last year to about $650,000,000 The growth is largely driven by the continued business wins with BYD, which represents more than 50% of our non consolidated backlog. We continue to win new business with a diverse set of customers.

Speaker 2

In the appendix of the presentation is a breakdown of our total sales by customer for 2023 and our expected distribution in 2027. It illustrates the continued diversification and growth we have with key customers such as BYD, a global EV OEM and STONEST. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jason for

Speaker 3

a financial review. Thanks, Ray. Slide 12 shows vehicle production and key exchange rates for the Q4. Global production increased 9% compared to the same period last year and was up 7% on a Lear sales weighted basis. Production volumes increased by 5% in North America, 7% in Europe and 18% in China.

Speaker 3

From a currency standpoint, the U. S. Dollar weakened against euro, but strengthened against the RMB compared to 2022. Slide 13 highlights Lear's growth compared to the market for the full year as well as for the Q4 and summarizes our growth relative to the market over the past 4 years. For the full year, total company growth of our market was 1 percentage point with seating flat and E Systems growing 4 points above market.

Speaker 3

This was largely in line with expectations as we anticipated the strong mix over the last several years to normalize as well as the negative impact of the UAW strike. Looking at our full year growth by region in 2023, Europe growth over market was 6 points with both business segments benefiting from higher volumes on Land Rover, Range Rover and Range Rover Sport. New conquest programs such as the BMW 5 Series in seating as well as new business with the global EV OEM, BMW, Renault and Mercedes and E Systems contributed to the strong growth in the region. North America revenue growth underperformed the market by 4 percentage points, driven by unfavorable platform mix and the impact from the UAW strike. In China, revenue growth underperformed the market by 3 percentage points, driven by unfavorable platform mix.

Speaker 3

The mix shifts to domestic Chinese automakers accelerated in 2023. We continue to win new business with domestic automakers such as BYD, Geely, Chang An, Great Wall and others, which will further improve our customer mix in China going forward. For the Q4, total company growth lagged the market by 2 percentage points. However, excluding the impact of the UAW strike, total company sales growth would have been in line with the overall market. Looking at our growth over market over the last several years, our average annual growth in each segment has been in line with our long term target, exceeding at 4 percentage points and eSystems at 6 percentage points.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 14, I'll highlight our financial results for the Q4 of 2023. Sales increased 9% year over year to $5,800,000,000 Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, commodities and acquisitions, sales were up 5%, reflecting the addition of new business in both segments. Core operating earnings were $288,000,000 compared to $265,000,000 last year. The increase in earnings resulted primarily from the addition of new business. Adjusted earnings per share improved to $3.03 as compared to $2.81 a year ago, primarily reflecting higher earnings and the benefit of our share repurchase program.

Speaker 3

Operating cash flow generated in the quarter was $570,000,000 compared to $537,000,000 in 2022. The increase in operating cash flow was due to higher earnings and an improvement in working capital, partially offset by higher cash taxes. Slide 15 explains the variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in the Seating segment. Sales for the 4th quarter were $4,300,000,000 an increase of $306,000,000 or 8% from 2022, driven primarily by our strong backlog. Excluding the impact of commodities, foreign exchange and acquisition sales were up 4%.

Speaker 3

The estimated impact of the UAW strike in 4th quarter in seating was $129,000,000 or approximately 3%. Key backlog programs include the BMW 5 Series in I-five and the Dodge Hornet in Europe, the Wagoneer and Mercedes EQE SUV in North America as well as the Geely Zeker 9 in China. Core operating earnings improved to $294,000,000 or up $19,000,000 or 7% from 2022 with adjusted operating margins of 6.8%. Operating margins were flat compared to last year as the benefit of our margin accretive backlog was offset by the impact of acquisitions and foreign exchange. Slide 16 explains the variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in the E Systems segment.

Speaker 3

Sales for the Q4 were $1,500,000,000 an increase of $164,000,000 or 12% from 2022. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange and commodities, sales were up 11%, driven primarily by our strong backlog. Estimated impact of the UAW strike in the 4th quarter in E Systems was $44,000,000 or approximately 3%. Key backlog programs include the Chevrolet Seeker and Buick and Vista SUVs in Asia, an electric vehicle with a global EV OEM in Europe in North America, Renault and Mitsubishi plug in hybrid electric vehicles in Europe as well as the Chevrolet Blazer EV and Ford Super Duty truck in North America. Core operating earnings improved to $84,000,000 or 5.6 percent of sales compared to $64,000,000 4.8 percent of sales in 20 22.

Speaker 3

The improvement in margins reflected our margin accretive backlog and strong net operating performance, including resolution of key commercial negotiations with customers, facilitating cost recovery and the benefit of restructuring savings. Moving to Slide 17, we highlight our history of deploying capital to drive shareholder value. Over the last few years, we made strategic investments to expand our vertical integration capabilities to support growth and accelerate operational excellence. We will continue to focus on organic and modest inorganic investments that drive improvements in automation and plant efficiencies. In the Q4 of 2023, S and P upgraded Lear to a BBB rating with a stable outlook.

Speaker 3

We also extended the maturity of our $2,000,000,000 credit by 1 year to 2027. These actions further solidify our already strong balance sheet. Our renewed focus on generating cash flow is driving immediate results. In 2023, we significantly exceeded our target of 80% free cash flow conversion, which enabled us to accelerate our share repurchases in the second half of the year. We remain committed to returning excess cash to our shareholders.

Speaker 3

During the year, we repurchased $313,000,000 worth of stock, reducing our shares outstanding by 4%. Including dividends, we returned approximately $500,000,000 to shareholders in 2023. Dollars 175,000,000 of shares were repurchased in the 4th quarter, More than the 1st 3 quarters combined, this share count reduction will help accelerate EPS growth in 2024. Our current share repurchase authorization has approximately $900,000,000 remaining, which allows us to repurchase shares through the end of this year. Please turn to Slide 18.

Speaker 3

Last year, we introduced the Leer Forward Plan. The plan is focused on driving efficiencies in our plants and across our segments. We executed several programs through the course of the year that improve efficiency and increase the long term flexibility in our manufacturing facilities. To optimize our low cost footprint, We continue to expand our North African operations. We recently opened a facility to expand our connection systems capabilities to support our European operations and started initial production of thermal comfort products at a second facility.

Speaker 3

Building on the progress we made in 2023, This year, we will continue to focus on increasing the level of automation in our plants to drive further efficiencies to help offset global wage inflation. The acquisitions of Figuora and InTouch have resulted in increased efficiency, reduced waste and improved quality. We have a pipeline of organic and inorganic initiatives that our team is focused on executing in 2024. The Leer Forward Plan generated cost savings of more than $50,000,000 in 2023. We estimate the opportunities we are pursuing in 2024 can generate an incremental $50,000,000 in annual savings, with larger savings anticipated in 2025 and beyond.

Speaker 3

These initiatives, combined with commercial recoveries, are critical to helping offset the impact of global wage inflation. Actions taken through the Lear Forward Plan also help maximize cash flow generation. By realigning our capacity, we can adjust to change Changes in production schedules and reduced capital intensity of our business. This was evident in our 2023 results as our capital expenditures were 2.7 of sales, well below our average over the last 5 years of roughly 3% of sales. The projects we implemented in 2023 helped us achieve free cash flow conversion of 90%, well in excess of our 80% target.

Speaker 3

Slide 20 provides detail on our outlook for 2024. Now shifting to our 2024 outlook. Slide 19 provides global vehicle production times and currency assumptions that form the basis of our full year outlook. We base our production assumptions on several sources, including internal estimates, customer production schedules and S and P forecast. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we assume that global industry production will be 1% lower than in 2023 or flat on a Lear sales weighted basis.

Speaker 3

Our global production assumptions are generally aligned with the latest S and P forecast. From a currency perspective, our 2024 outlook assumes an average euro exchange rate of $1.09 per euro and an average Chinese RMB exchange rate of RMB 7.15 to the dollar. Now turning to Slide 20. Slide 20 provides detail on our outlook for 2024. Despite our expectations for flat industry volumes, We're expecting our 4th consecutive year of higher sales, operating earnings and earnings per share.

Speaker 3

Our revenue is expected to be in the range of $24,000,000 to $24,600,000,000 At the midpoint, this would be an increase of $833,000,000 or 4% over 2023. This translates to growth over market of 4% to the total company with E Systems growing 5% and Seating growing 3% over market, respectively. Core operating earnings are expected to be in the range of $1,155,000,000 to $1,305,000,000 At the midpoint, this would imply an increase of 10% over 2023. Adjusted net income is expected to be in the range of 730,000,000 $840,000,000 Restructuring costs are expected to be approximately $125,000,000 Our outlook for operating cash flow for the year is expected to be in the range of $1,275,000,000 to $1,425,000,000 And our free cash flow guidance at the midpoint is expected to increase to $675,000,000 At the midpoint of our outlook, free cash flow conversion would be approximately 80 percent, a 2nd consecutive year in excess of our 80% target. Lear's strong focus on generating cash allows us to maintain a strong balance sheet while making organic and inorganic investments to strengthen our business as well as to fund share repurchases to significantly reduce outstanding shares and drive growth in earnings per share.

Speaker 3

Slide 21 walks our 2023 actual results to the midpoint of our 2024 outlook. Year over year, Revenue is expected to grow by more than $800,000,000 and adjusted margins are expected to improve by 30 basis points, due primarily to our margin accretive backlog strong net operating performance. Positive net operating performance reflects the benefit from our Lear Forward Plan and other performance improvements, partially offset by elevated wage inflation and the negative impact of transactional foreign exchange. Wage inflation is to be approximately $90,000,000 greater than what we experienced in 2023. And transactional FX is expected to be a headwind of approximately $70,000,000 primarily as a result of the strengthening of the Mexican peso.

Speaker 3

The E Systems segment is expected to continue its recent performance improvement trends with operating margins expected to increase by approximately 100 basis points in 20 24. Seating operating margins are expected to increase modestly, reflecting the continuing benefit of our margin accretive backlog as well as the execution of our thermal comfort strategy, partially offset by the impact of lower volumes on existing platforms. We've included detailed walks to the midpoint of our guidance preceding any systems in the appendix. Now I'll turn it back to Ray for some closing thoughts.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jason. Please turn to Slide 23. 2023 was a key year of strategic execution. In Seating, we closed the IGB acquisition, providing additional capabilities to our Thermal Comfort portfolio, which further strengthens our industry leading competitive position. We're in the validate we are in validation with 11 customers for our Thermal Comfort Modular Solutions.

Speaker 2

Bringing these solutions to market will accelerate the adoption of thermal comfort features more broadly to a higher volume vehicles and into 2nd and third row seating. In E Systems, our execution and focus on efficiencies drove margin improvement throughout the year. We continue to focus on our core products aligned with industry trends to further improve our margins. We expect both business segments to improve growth over market performance in 2024. And we are confident in our long term growth of our market targets in both CD and E Systems.

Speaker 2

We implemented Lear Forward Initiatives, which yield savings in excess of our initial targets. Our focus this year is on accelerating automation to address wage inflation and improve efficiencies in our plans. In 2024, Bringing innovative products to market and executing our strategy will allow us to continue to return capital to shareholders and position Lear for long term success. Now we'd be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session. Our first question today comes from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Scott.

Speaker 4

Two questions on the guide. Just first of all, versus the second half of 2023 run rate and looking out to 2024, you've got about $1,100,000,000 of revenue growth at the midpoint And your segments are expected to deliver about $120,000,000 of additional EBIT. Is that roughly the conversion rate that we should be expecting Now as more of the growth is coming from backlog, maybe 10% or 11%. And can you maybe just, Jason, in the past, you've given us a Pretty helpful bridge on how you get to the targets, the 7% total company, 8% segments. Can you just refresh us As we look out beyond 2024, how that sort of looks?

Speaker 3

Yes, Rod. As the backlog is The primary near term driver of growth in revenue, we would expect that to convert sort of 10% to 12%. I think we're right in line with that with our guidance for this year. We do believe that there is room for volume increases on existing platforms and those will continue to convert at our typical variable margin in both segments, 15% to 20% in Seating and 25% roughly in E Systems. As we look at this year, we're not anticipating Volume increases on existing platforms.

Speaker 3

In fact, we have included volume reductions on a number of existing platforms in our guidance largely aligned with the S and P forecast. So there's definitely room for that to improve even this year and certainly beyond this year. In terms of your question on 2025, Rod, I really want to stay focused on 2024 at this stage. The last time we talked about 2025 was the middle of last year in we talked about 8% at our Seating Investor Day and there's 2 things 2 or 3 things have changed since then. 1, Wage inflation and transactional FX a little bit more of a headwind than what we had anticipated at that point.

Speaker 3

EV volumes and the transition to EVs are a little bit slower than what we had anticipated. We're also moving faster on automation and efficiencies in our plants and in active negotiations with our customers. So it's a little bit difficult to try and call 25% with pinpoint accuracy at this stage, we're super focused on delivering or exceeding our 2024 guidance in both businesses.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks for that. And just aside from production, maybe you can just give us a little bit of color as you look out to 2024. What are the biggest potential sources of upside or downside versus the midpoint of your plan?

Speaker 3

Yes. So as we look at our guidance for this year, I think One of the biggest challenges we have is in regards to wage inflation. So maybe just spend a minute on that. As we've talked about in the past, it's sort of 3% or 4% annual Wage inflation is sort of normal. We offset that through our efficiency programs in our plants.

Speaker 3

And it's certainly running considerably beyond that at this stage, roughly 2x what we've experienced historically. And if you look at our businesses, just kind of taking a step back, the impact ranges from negligible on a business like electronics, which Has almost no labor is very automated. JIP seating, it's a relatively modest impact. But our more labor intensive is like cut and sew trim, which is 35% of the seating headcount, wire assembly is 90% of the systems headcount. Those are where we're seeing the greatest impact.

Speaker 3

Those also tend to be businesses that have model pricing with our customers with explicit assumptions Certainly, we would expect full recovery. And we really think that 24 represents the peak in terms of The impact of wage inflation because globally inflation peaked last year and now you're seeing the full effect of that in our labor costs. And so we would expect that to moderate next year. We did see higher labor inflation last year as well. Kind of looking at from 2022 to 2023, we had a step up of roughly $60,000,000 We managed to offset that largely through Four initiatives in addition to our normal efficiency programs, we had an aggressive restructuring program moving work to from Eastern Europe to North Africa, From the border of Mexico further inland through automation, you have acquisitions of ASI, InTouch and Tagora really aggressively deploying automation.

Speaker 3

The Leer Forward plan, which is improving capacity utilization in North Africa and Mexico and then customer recoveries passing that through to our customers. So I think there may be some upside to the assumption we've made around economics either in terms of the absolute cost or the recovery. And in addition to that, what we're doing in terms of our automation programs and Ray could talk a little bit more about that. I mean there's no one more Focused and passionate on this topic, I think, in the industry than Ray. Yes.

Speaker 2

Rob, I'll share some stories with you too next week publicly, but I couldn't have been in our facilities. I think the technology, the innovations, the things that we put in place, when you talk about upside, I think that's a What I'm seeing with the pilot lines we put in place around the areas Jason mentioned, our labor focus priorities are around trim and wiring. And what I saw in our wiring facilities, we're automating and doing a great job with some of the efficiencies that we're getting our plants. And to mention, I think what's important too, the capital that we're looking at is significantly lower cost. So it's not only improving From an efficiency within our plants, the capital that's coming online is significantly lower than what we're seeing from traditional capital.

Speaker 2

So we're getting 2, I think, really good benefits. You saw that last year in our capital spend, and I think that's going to continue to accelerate. I think the negotiations with our customers, we take a very balanced approach to the year, starting off in January. We're in heavy discussions with our customers on all kinds of different issues relative to the pause in EVs to what we're seeing, with labor economics. I think we're balanced.

Speaker 2

I think some of those we're going to be very aggressive on. Those I think could help significantly quicker than maybe Within the second half of this year, but we do take a balanced approach in the beginning. I think volume. I think we've looked at volume very conservatively. I think Right now, our customers are retrenching a little bit with this pause in EV.

Speaker 2

We're hearing a lot from our inside the customers of how they're going to look at Their powertrains, what that might impact as far as ICE vehicles. We've gotten some Feedback that they'll formalize it here in the near future. If ICE continues to accelerate in some of our platforms that we've been A little bit more bearish on because that's the information we have. That's a nice little tailwind for us. So I think we have some opportunities here, But we are pushing them very aggressively, but we do have a very balanced approach, especially coming out in January, Rod.

Speaker 2

We've been absorbing a lot of these EV changes quickly and then really giving a little bit more bearish look to what the alternatives will be. And so that could be a nice boost for us.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for the insights.

Operator

Yes. Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Hi, Dan. Wanted to hey, good morning. Wanted to go back to continue the line of questions on the guide.

Speaker 5

And maybe you could just comment a bit On 2 components in there, one is, I think you said $70,000,000 of FX in there. Is that just purely transactional? Does that just reflect hedges unwinding? And maybe you could talk about I think you mentioned it briefly On the commercial recoveries piece, but what are you assuming as far as pricing within each of the segments? Is this returning to the typical, call it 1.5 percent price downs in seating, 2% -ish in E Systems, so maybe just some commentary on the pricing environment as well?

Speaker 3

Sure. Yes, maybe start with FX and it may be helpful just to kind of take a step back and explain our transactional FX exposures overall and our strategy. So the Mexican peso is our most significant exposure by far. We have had a little more than $1,000,000,000 I think $1,100,000,000 was the exposure last year. That grows to $1,200,000,000 or so in 2024.

Speaker 3

And we have a very effective hedging program, which really protected us last year and it also helps us Again, this year. I'm not going to go through all the details of the program for competitive reasons, but I will say generally we layer on hedges on a multiyear basis.

Speaker 2

And at the

Speaker 3

beginning of last year, And beginning of last year, again, beginning of this year, we had hedges in place for roughly 85% of our exposure, including the peso. And this again, that surfaced very well last year in particular. Transactional FX on the Mexican peso negatively impacted Operating margins and earnings last year by 10 basis points and $20,000,000 respectively. So it was Fairly insignificant in terms of the operating margin impact. There was another $10,000,000 of exposure balance sheet related FX expense that hit in the other line, which impacted EBIT by another $10,000,000 So the Mexican peso overall between operating earnings and other expense impacted EBIT by 30,000,000 last year.

Speaker 3

And the balance sheet portion that was really loaded back end loaded in the Q4 where there's a lot of volatility with the peso That really weighed on earnings per share, it's about $0.10 impact overall FX was a $0.10 impact on earnings per share in the 4th quarter. As we look out at this year overall, our guidance, as we talked about in the prepared remarks, includes $70,000,000 impact in operating earnings are just under 30 basis points, 31 basis points in Seating, a little over 20 basis points in E Systems, $60,000,000 of that $70,000,000 is driven by the peso, which we've assumed will average about $17.25 So the exposed portion, the 15%, We've assumed a rate of $17.25 That's pretty much where it's been trading over the last several months. And then we've assumed A further $30,000,000 of impact on our balance sheet exposure. So the guidance includes $100,000,000 total transactional FX impact of which $60,000,000 or 60 percent of that is peso related. Lastly, I think it's important to highlight that the peso appreciation It's also embedded in our labor inflation.

Speaker 3

And so as we're talking to our customers about recovery of this kind of excess wage economics, there's an FX component to that as well. And ultimately, as those resets reflect current exchange rates, current labor rates, we would expect the full recovery of that to take So some of that this year and then some of it beyond this year. And that's a little bit of what's weighing on CD margins and really margins in both segments in 2024. So you're not seeing the full benefit of all the operating improvements because it's being diluted by both wage inflation and transactional FX. In terms of our customer price downs, we're expecting a similar environment in 'twenty four than what we experienced in 'twenty three.

Speaker 3

Your math is pretty close there in terms of 1.5%, maybe a little bit less than that. But it's important to note that there's a basket of issues that you're negotiating. And so there may be some direct reduction of that as a result of our labor inflation discussions, FX discussions, low volume discussions, EV program delay discussions and even lingering commodities that has not been recovered from the prior year. So all of that is in play as we negotiate with our customers. As we see this year playing out, you have that contractual price down that's baked into your Q1 outlook.

Speaker 3

You had The effects of wage inflation largely hitting at the beginning of the year and that will weigh on margins at the start of the year and then throughout the year we look to claw that back through those negotiations and through the execution of our operating improvement plans.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. And the follow-up, wanted to ask about the EV strategy. And I see on your slide that talks about the strategic initiatives. There's a comment here realigning resources under E Systems, realigning resources due to changes in EV volumes.

Speaker 5

Maybe you can just talk about what specifically you are doing within E Systems to align to this new environment? How much was Weaker EVs await on the backlog and you issued this 8% target on E Systems margin. How much does slower EV environment limit your ability to get to that 8% 2025 target in margins? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. It's certainly the biggest factor that led to a lower 2024 backlog and to to a certain extent, the 2025 backlog is our assumptions around electric vehicle volumes, the timing of launches. So in 2024, in particular, we had guided to $1,500,000,000 backlog is now 1,200,000,000 I would say within our guidance range, that could be anywhere from $1,100,000,000 to $1,300,000,000 just depending on how closely the customers achieve their ramp up schedules and their volumes, which are still in flux. And so that yes, that is weighing on the backlog a little bit here in 2024, and it's weighing on operating margins a bit in E Systems probably more so than in Seating. And similar to the question Rod asked earlier in terms of 2025, I don't want to get into pinpoint margin discussion on 2025.

Speaker 3

What we've talked about publicly of late with these systems is an 8% target. I think in a recent investor conference, I talked about 25%, 26%, maybe pushing that out a little bit just because of the lower EV volumes in the near term. And so as the year progresses, we'll provide more color on 2025, but Certainly, that lower volumes will have an impact on E Systems margins there. In terms of what we're doing in response to The lower volumes, it's a combination of operating actions and commercial actions. And we've You see what happened with capital spending at the end of last year.

Speaker 3

We had guided to $675,000,000 We spent $50,000,000 less than that. We went back through every single program, not just in eSystems, but in Seating and reevaluated the deployment of additional capacity and found tremendous opportunity to pause a lot of that spending. So that will really help kind of near term returns in both segments. And I think better position us for a slower ramp up. And we're doing that in collaboration with our customers.

Speaker 3

Our customers are being very open about changes to their plans and they're working with us to try and slow down that capital deployment so that they don't have that excess capital in the supply base to worry about as well. And so and then there's a commercial negotiation element to it. As volumes are lower, Certainly, we're having discussions with all of our customers about the impact on fixed overhead and investments that have been made previously that will result in higher prices until those volumes come back. I also

Speaker 2

think what was important and we talked about this with these systems is Simplifying the product portfolio and seeing a little bit this even before it occurred. I mean, obviously, it was a much more dramatic pullback or pause as it's been called with EVs, but we were ahead in some respects of really limiting what capital we'll be deploying. I think equally as important, Where we're investing our capital, our dollars and then also scaling certain products. When we talk about a BDU, It can be a very scalable program across multiple customers, same thing with an ICB. And so I say it all the time, not try to be everything to everybody, investing in all kinds of different solutions, but being very, very disciplined and selective on where we will deploy capital and being very good at it.

Speaker 2

And then I think That's helped us. I mean, we still have more work to do, like Jason said, on the commercial negotiation with some of these more dramatic changes within EVs, but we have that type of relationship with our customers that we are seen as an expert. And we didn't deploy capital at the request of a particular volume to hit a run rate, it was very, very selective, intentional. And so, I think that helped. But simplifying that Product portfolio in these systems has really helped us as this pause has come at us over the last really 3 months.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Murphy from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 6

Good morning, guys. I got 3 very quick ones. First, if I said that global light vehicle production is going to be up Roughly 2% this year as opposed to down 1% and took the midpoint of your range, it would probably add about $700,000,000 maybe just a little bit more To the revenue outlook, if you think about that incremental $700,000,000 and assume all else equal, What kind of contribution margin would you ascribe to that? I mean, because when you look at the low end and the high end of the range, it's indicating a 25% But Jason, just trying to understand what you would think of on something like that. And assuming a lot of this is coming in existing programs that do better than you're forecasting right now or the industry is expecting?

Speaker 3

Yes. So we would expect if volumes at existing platforms come in $700,000,000 better. We would convert it at 15% to 20% in Seating and 25% so in any systems depending on the underlying profitability of the platforms that come back, the level of vertical integration that we have in the platforms as well. I would say that some of that volume would be on backlog programs though, John. So that may convert at a little bit lower rate In that 1st year production, sort of 10% to 15% probably.

Speaker 3

And that's where some of that guidance ranges is earmarked for, so to speak, as some of the uncertainty around these new EV platforms. The other factor and the reason for a little bit higher conversion on the range is the commercial negotiations around inflation and the pace at which we can deploy our automation projects to offset wage inflation. So we've got a little wider range than we normally It's fairly tight in seating, sort of 6%, 7% to 7%. But in E Systems, it's a little bit wider range, 6% at the top, let's say 5% to 6% or 5.1% to 6% any systems to sort of account for the impact of those commercial negotiations and the pace of deployment of automation.

Speaker 6

That's very helpful. And then second quick one here on the backlog. It seems like you guys have dinged and hit the backlog reasonably hard for EV push down And out, but have not taken the liberty and have not seen this necessary from your customers of backfilling that lost volume with ICE programs. Is that a fair statement in the way you've approached the recalc of the backlog and there's not a backfill or a significant backfill of these ICE vehicles actually transacting and being sold and taking the place of those?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's effectively what we've done because it's a fairly conservative approach, but we've taken our customers' guidance in terms of their plans to balance out some of their ICE platforms as they ramp up their EV And then we've taken a bit of a conservative view on the volumes of some of the new EV platforms. So we may have sort of double dipped a little bit There, I'll just give you a couple of examples. We have the Blazer ICE seating, but we don't have the Blazer EV seating. So GM's plan as it sits right now has the Blazer building out next year. So that's a backlog hit and seeing that may get pushed out.

Speaker 3

And there are several programs like that. Ford with the Aviator, that is assumed to build out on the ice side and then it launches as it need to be in a different plant that we where we don't have the production contract. So I think that is sort of maybe a hidden upside to the 2025 backlog because of our sort of mechanical approach that we follow when we establish the backlog. If the customer tells us the program is building out, then we take it out of the backlog. Another example on the system side, Look forward, the focus is assumed to begin winding down in 'twenty five and it's gone in 'twenty There isn't a replacement for that at this stage.

Speaker 3

So that's a negative to the backlog. So there's a handful of programs like that, that could Lee, just some kind of underlying upside in the backlog. Would we post that number 12 months from now?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think our customers, too, over the probably the first two quarters, start clarifying the specifics around those type of situations. And we did take, Like Jason said, a more balanced conservative approach given the information we have. And if there is movement and that said, not formally, but informally, we've gotten some feedback that they are internally across the board looking at how they're Currently across the board looking at how they're going to position, between hybrids, electric vehicles and the continuation in some cases of ICE vehicles. And What's nice about the continuation of ICE vehicles, those are usually longer than the 2.

Speaker 2

We're usually doing a really nice job efficiently. And so We're with you. We hope to keep running those things. So, but we will I think we'll get more clarity over the next couple of quarters here as they start to kind of rebalance their own internal strategies.

Speaker 3

John, just to add one comment to that. And with both businesses sort of being powertrain agnostic, if that happens, I think it's Generally positive for us. To raise last point, just to reinforce that, running that capital for A year or 2 years, 3 years longer than we initially planned. It's good for operating margins, good for ROIC and on balance good for Lear overall.

Speaker 6

I definitely agree with you. Then just lastly on the buyback, Jason, what was the average price you bought back the shares? I apologize in the Q4, I missed that. And as I look at the operating cash flow expectation for this year and just apply that 22% Cap allocation you did last year, it looks like there'd be $300,000,000 maybe a little bit more in buybacks that might be earmarked. I mean, I know you're not doing it that directly, but it seems like that would be the number.

Speaker 6

So what was the average price in the Q4 and the buyback number you would think of for 24?

Speaker 3

Yes. I'll start with the second part as the guys in the room scramble to find that number for you. I think it's in the mid-130s. We fully expect to continue to be aggressive in buying back stock and to be opportunistic as there's sort of this dislocation of value in the near term. And if you look at the free cash flow we're going to generate in 'twenty four, which is greater than 'twenty three, Yes, there's no near term M and A of any significance on the horizon.

Speaker 3

We do have a term loan we could take a look at that's Tied to the IGB acquisition, but we're in no rush to pay that down. So I think share repurchases Sort of in that 4% of shares outstanding again range is a reasonable target. Of course, we're being with our Board Next week, that's a Board decision and we're certainly advocating for that and the Board has been very supportive of that in our recent meeting. So I'd that to continue.

Speaker 2

Yes, our focus is driving free cash flow. And we're going to convert at our target or higher, and we're going it to the shareholders. I mean, we're going to what's nice is right now, we talk about innovation technology on the plant floors. We acquired some small tuck ins with Agora, ASI, InTouch, and boy, they made a dramatic difference. And it's not extremely Costly, when we talk about this capital deployment, we're doing it at a lower cost.

Speaker 2

And we're seeing that capital come in significantly lower, and we're deploying it at end of life or with new launches. So we're going to

Speaker 3

be very,

Speaker 2

very focused on our working capital, how we're converting our cash flow. We're in a really good position. We've been doing this for several years. So when I'm going out to plant and seeing this, what's really nice is this WS launch we just went through, Unprecedented, never done before in the history of Seating. We had our capital, we wouldn't even take the capital from our competitor because it That bad from a throughput standpoint and how it was working within their facility.

Speaker 2

We launched that plant with our technology innovation, Low capital cost, much more efficient. We produced more output than they could produce ever produced in their 3 years of trying to hit their daily volumes. And what was great about it, and Frank's here, the team did a remarkable job, was our quality from our customers said it was superior to our competitor that was producing those parts for years. And so that gives me excitement because I'm looking at this Technology in the plants and we're a manufacturing company, we produce parts. That acceleration of innovation technology that we've been driving for multiple years It's starting to really take hold and it's about we don't need anything.

Speaker 2

We've made some nice acquisitions. There's nothing in horizon like Jason said. And We'll walk out of this meeting, we're going to go to how we're going to drive more cash flow. So that's what we're going to stay focused on.

Speaker 3

And John, your first question there, 13 7 was the average price in the quarter.

Speaker 6

Ray, just that W. S. Program, that's the grand wagon year and the wagon year is what you mentioned in that takeover. That's what you were just discussing.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Picariello from BNP Paribas.

Speaker 7

Just to focus on this year's volume mix assumptions, Relative to a flat global production outlook, your Seating's volume mix is guided to be down almost 2 points, E Systems down almost 4 points. Can you just help unpack a little more the key drivers here for both segments that informs the underperformance first market? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. James, I can give you maybe just some highlights of some of the key platforms that are driving that. And some of it is temporary. For example, in Seating, the Audi Q5 is lower year over year. It's going through a changeover this year, we would expect that volume to eventually come back.

Speaker 3

With Stellantis, the Compass volumes Our lower they're launching that Wagoneer S in the same facility, and so that's offsetting some of that volume and that sits in our backlog. Mercedes SUVs in our Tuscaloosa plant, both ICE and EV volumes are soon to be lower. And in Europe, Audi A6 and then some of the Opel programs that we're on are lower. In China, there's a changeover of the Mercedes E Class. That's an important program for us.

Speaker 3

So volumes are lower this year, Assume to be lower. And some of this is, again, just kind of aligning with SMG, making adjustments where Sorry for customer insights, but those are the big drivers on the Seating side. In E Systems, it's you've got kind of a mixed bag. So with Ford, you have some that are up like the Maverick, the Bronco Sport and Escape that helps. The Mach E, however, is down pretty significantly.

Speaker 3

I think we had it down 33%. That's a pretty good significant program in E Systems, so that's weighing on a number. Focus is lower in Europe. Audit volumes are lower in Europe and China, SAIC volumes in China. Some of the Volvo Geely volumes are a little bit lower on certain platforms.

Speaker 3

Polestar 2 is down, Lincoln goes down. Those are the big kind of big drivers as we look at our volume assumptions in each of the segments.

Speaker 7

That's super helpful. And then just to follow on on that point, thinking about 2025, obviously, you're not going to give 25 guidance. But just for the Seating business, you're calling for $500,000,000 contribution, new business backlog for 2025, right? That would be just under 3 points growth over market off of the 2024 guide. It sounds as you just went through the seeding key platforms that are influencing 2024.

Speaker 7

My question is, can we think of 4 points growth over market for Seating as an achievable Great for next year or not necessarily? Just any thoughts on that. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. The go go market is difficult. It's choppy, that's volatile. And we saw a perfect example of that even just kind of that even just kind of within 'twenty three started out decent and got worse as the year progressed as there were some mix shift with certain customers. So I think it's important to kind of take a step back and look at the business over a longer time horizon.

Speaker 3

And over the last 4 years, we did deliver, as we highlighted in the prepared remarks, 4 points growth over market and seating, 6 points in eSystems. As I look out over the next 5 years, I do see this maybe uncertainty around the transition to EVs Weighing on growth over market a little bit. I do see in E Systems as we wind down some of our non core products that will temper growth in the kind of near to medium term. But if I look out 5 years, I think Four points of growth over market in Seating, 6 points of growth over market in e systems in the long run is very achievable. And in Seating, the catalyst for it now, in the past, it was conquest wins primarily, and we do have some benefit from that in the future, but a lot of it is from modularity, what we're doing with thermal comfort, what we're doing with New innovative products that we highlighted like Flex Air and Renew Knit.

Speaker 3

So just take Flex Air, for example. Foam is a $4,500,000,000 market. We have a relatively small share of that today, less than 10% of that market. We see Flex Air potentially displacing polyurethane film at least in 2nd and third row Applications and maybe in all seatback applications over a period of time, we're going to dominate that market. That could be a $500,000,000 business for us, 5 years out, it could be a $1,000,000,000 business for us long term.

Speaker 3

We continue to look for those Kind of $1,000,000,000 component businesses. We started back in 2015 with weather. That's a great business for us. Now we have Thermal Comfort, dollars 600,000,000 business that we acquired, it will be a $1,000,000,000 business in 2027. We're well on our way there.

Speaker 3

Flex Air may be something that meets those levels of growth as well based on initial customer interest and all the environmental benefits associated with it and performance benefits associated with it. So I think that structurally, the underlying drivers of growth in Seating are stronger today than they've ever been. Our path to getting more jet market share is very clear, and we're confident in the long term growth prospects of that business.

Speaker 7

Appreciate it. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much. My first question is about the EV backlog. Just so we get a little bit of a better understanding I guess to what extent this was derisked for like EV volume assumption. Are you able to quantify for us how much of the backlog is Currently tied to EV platforms in E Systems and as well as in Seating. Overall, like now that you've essentially reduced these volume assumptions, what percentage of your backlog is EV at this point?

Speaker 3

Yes. Even after those adjustments, electric vehicles are still the most prominent new vehicles launching over the next 3 years. And so exceeding, it's about 57% of the backlog of the new programs rolling on. And Any systems at 75%. And that's not just electrification revenue as we define it, which would be high voltage wiring or electronics products that are unique to electric vehicles that would include low voltage wiring on electric vehicles.

Speaker 3

So it's still Despite the fact that we have significantly reduced the volume assumptions and the timing of the launches, it's still a prominent a significant part of the backlog. And so our belief is still that the transition to electric vehicles It's happening. It may happen more slowly than what was previously anticipated, but there's still a significant shift that's taken place. It may Ultimately, end up being a lower percentage of the market than many had expected, but it's still a significant part the market and it still dominates our customers' new program launches in the near term. Now, if you say You don't believe that level of penetration is going to happen with EVs?

Speaker 3

I think the flip side to that, as a few of the questions earlier highlighted, is that some of these ICE programs that we've assumed are going to balance out or not going to balance out or they're going to run at a higher volume than what we've assumed for a longer period of time. So we're definitely in a transition period. It's difficult to project what's going to happen. We've tried to balance in our assumptions at this stage and clear in our guidance, but It's difficult to predict the manual.

Speaker 8

Yes, that's helpful. And then one quick follow-up or point of clarification around some of the cost headwinds, Actually labor cost inflation. I guess on a full year basis, do you assume that you recover these from customers? Or is that Would there be a lag or is there like a portion that you expect that you will be responsible for? I guess, I understand that it takes time and there's a process and negotiations, etcetera.

Speaker 8

But I guess, net net, does that remain sort of like a headwind?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that's going back to what we talked about earlier, Historically, wage inflation was 3%, 4%. And our efficiency programs in the plant Would offset that, as well as in some cases a little bit more than that and that would contribute to offset our customer reductions each year. That was kind of the old model. That 3%, 4% is now twice that.

Speaker 3

And I don't think that necessarily continues as I look out to 'twenty five, 'twenty six, 'twenty seven, but in 'twenty four it is. And so what we're What we believe we should recover either this year or this year or next year is that kind of excess labor inflation beyond that historical normal level that we have seen and the economy has experienced for decades. And so that's sort of the philosophy. And so I don't want to make it as simple as this, but roughly half of it, We've got to offset through our cost reduction programs, automation, restructuring, shifting the footprint, better utilization of our facilities. And then the other half has got to come through some form of recovery either this year or next year in order to preserve the margin trajectory, the margin growth that we expect to achieve this year and next year.

Speaker 2

I guess in this year's guidance, do

Speaker 8

you assume a net headwind Some labor cost inflation unrecovered or do you assume that the piece that you need to recover from your customers is being recovered?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think, yes, it would be a net headwind for this year in the guidance. We've talked in the past about generating 50 to 100 basis points in net performance, we've guided to less than that. And I think you could certainly attribute the shortfall to a combination of the transactional FX impact as well as unrecovered wage inflation. It's not quite that precise, but I think that's a fair perspective.

Speaker 2

And I think the way I categorize it and Even though we have past practice in some of these negotiations and historical understanding or baseline of how we get recovery, We base our guidance on that. Now we're in for a much different number as far as getting settled within the year and that there's timing elements to that. Obviously, we're pulling on productivity, we're pulling on volume, all these other things. And We're going in above what the net difference would be for negotiations based on past practice. Some of them are models or some of them are in other settlements.

Speaker 2

And I think in addition to that, we have a lot more control around the automation within our facilities. Like Jason mentioned earlier, 35% of our labor is in our trim. And we are just on one of our facilities. And in our own control, we've been able to automate, which has always been because of variability within the shrimp covers, we've done a nice job of bringing in very sophisticated innovation to automate that equipment, that's in ours. Now accelerating that faster is another nice opportunity for us.

Speaker 2

And so we've been somewhat conservative on how we roll that out. But those are opportunities that I think would improve the overall number as we look at it today.

Speaker 3

And as we talked about earlier, That's one of the factors that could drive us into a different spot in the range. So at the high end of the guidance range, if we do better than anticipated, Certainly, that would be a contributing factor to getting ceding to 7% and each system to 6% this year.

Speaker 8

Very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

You're welcome. And

Operator

ladies and gentlemen, with that, We'll be concluding today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Seth, thanks. I'm sure everyone on the call now is just the leader team. I just want to again thank everyone for their outstanding job in 2023. And like we always discuss, so what now, what we got some challenges ahead of us this year, but we know what we need to do and I appreciate all the great work we're going to Due this year to hit our targets and achieve them. So thank you for everybody for all your hard work.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does end today's conference call. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
Lear Q4 2023
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