Brixmor Property Group Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 30, 2024

There are 17 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Brixmor Property Group Incorporated First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Stacie Slater, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

Operator

Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining Brixmor's Q1 conference call. With me on the call today are Brian Finegan, Interim CEO and President and Steve Gallagher, Interim Chief Financial Officer. Mark Horgan, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, will also be available for Q and A. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that some of our comments today may contain forward looking statements that are based on certain assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings and actual future results may differ materially. We assume no obligation to update any forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Also, we will refer today to certain non GAAP financial measures. Further information regarding our use of these measures and reconciliation of these measures to our GAAP results are available in the earnings release and supplemental disclosure on the Investor Relations portion of our website. Before turning the call to Brian, please note that out of respect for Jim's privacy, we will not be addressing any questions regarding his temporary medical leave and look forward to his return in the near future. We do ask that you join our Brixford family in wishing Jim good health. As always, please limit your questions to 1 or 2 and re queue for any follow-up.

Speaker 1

At this time, it's my pleasure to introduce Brian Finnegan.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Stacey, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report another quarter of outstanding execution by the Brixmor team as we continue to capitalize not only on the positive trends in Open Air Retail, but on the work our team has done in transforming this portfolio. That transformation is evident in every observable metric, including same property NOI growth during the Q1 of 5.9 percent and our improved same property NOI and NAREIT FFO outlook for 2024 as Steve will provide additional detail on shortly. And in conjunction with the tailwinds from the record 68,000,000 dollars of annual base rent in our signed but not commenced pool and our highly accretive low risk reinvestment pipeline, we continue to position this portfolio for long term sustainable growth. That growth starts with leasing and we delivered another quarter of excellent results executing 294 new and renewal leases totaling 1,300,000 square feet, including 700,000 square feet of new leases with tenants across a wide range of categories in the open air space.

Speaker 2

We added another 3 grocers during the quarter and now derived 80% of our base rent from grocery anchored centers, while again adding thriving retailers to the portfolio such as Ulta Beauty, Raw Stress For Less, Chipotle Chick Fil A and JD Sports. We achieved several noteworthy records this quarter including for overall anchor and small shop occupancy of 95.1%, 97.3% and 90.5% respectively with a sequential small shop gain for the 13th consecutive quarter. We also hit a high watermark in new small shop rents at over $30 per square foot as the improvements we have made at our centers along with the high demand, low supply, retail leasing environment is allowing our team to drive rate across the portfolio. That ability to drive rate and capture the upside embedded in our below market rents was also apparent in our new and renewal spreads of 20% and our new leasing spreads of 40%. We're also encouraged by our move out trends, which were the lowest Q1 result this portfolio has had and led to record retention in over 89% of GLA.

Speaker 2

In addition, tenant disruption has so far this year remained muted, which is a significant factor in our improved outlook for the year as Steve will highlight further. But to be clear, the positive trends we continue to see in move outs and retention are not simply a result of the environment we are witnessing in Open Air Retail, but indicative of the transformation of this portfolio and the durability of our underlying tenant base. The cumulative effect of robust leasing, record portfolio retention, low move out activity and a stable tenant base are also reflected in our improved same property NOI outlook for the year of 3.5% to 4.25 as the team remains laser focused on accelerating rent commencements across the portfolio including from space we recaptured last year. Moving to reinvestments, our team stabilized $11,600,000 of projects at an incremental 12% return and now has an active pipeline of over $400,000,000 of projects and an incremental 9% return, of which we expect to stabilize approximately $200,000,000 of this year. This includes some of the company's most high profile projects like Roosevelt Mall and Plymouth Square in the Philadelphia market and the first phase of Port Orlando across from one of the busiest convention centers in the country in Orlando, Florida.

Speaker 2

On the external growth front, as Mark can touch on in Q and A, we're beginning to see transaction activity increase and more opportunities to put our platform to work, particularly following the $69,000,000 of attractive capital that Mark and team raised during in the Q1 through dispositions. We took advantage of one of those opportunities last week in Long Island, New York where we purchased a grocery anchored asset adjacent to a center we already own consistent with the clustering strategy we have deployed with great success over the last few years in places like Southwest Florida, Southern California, Houston, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Chicago. And while we expect to see more opportunities in the transaction market in the balance of the year, we will remain disciplined as a higher interest rate environment persists and our self funded internal growth strategy allows us to be patient on the external growth front. Before handing it over to Steve for a more detailed review of our financial results, I would like to thank all of you that have reached out with your thoughts and well wishes for Jim. The outpouring of support has been overwhelming, but not surprising given both the person that he is and the impact that he has had on this industry.

Speaker 2

As Stacy noted out of respect for Jim and his family, we won't be answering any questions outside of what was in the release, but do look forward to his return in the near future. With that, I'll hand the call over to Steve for a more detailed review of our financial results. Steve?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Brian. I'm pleased to report on a very robust start to 2024 as we continue to capitalize on the strength of the current leasing environment and the momentum generated by our portfolio transformation initiatives. NAREIT FFO was $0.54 per share in the Q1 driven by same property NOI growth of 5.9%. Base rent growth contributed 3 80 basis points to same property NOI growth this quarter reflecting continued strong leasing spreads, growth in build occupancy and a historically low level of 1st quarter move outs. In addition, net expense reimbursements contributed 90 basis points driven by the growth in build occupancy.

Speaker 3

Revenues deemed uncollectible was slightly positive in the quarter and contributed 60 basis points of same property NOI growth due to the lower tenant disruption and the timing of annual real estate tax reconciliations collected from cash basis tenants. Also of note, as indicated in our initial guidance for 2024, Q1 FFO benefited from a $0.01 of savings associated with the CFO transition, including the reversal of stock compensation expense. As Brian noted, we are very pleased to have achieved portfolio records for our total anchor and small shop lease rates, reflecting the demand from retailers to locate in our centers and the substantial progress we have made in leasing space recaptured in bankruptcy last year. As such, we ended the Q1 with a 4 50 basis point spread between leased and build occupancy and our signed but not yet commenced pool totaled a record $68,000,000 which includes $60,000,000 of net new rent. The size of the pool continues to grow despite approximately $12,000,000 of annualized base rent since the end of the year.

Speaker 3

In addition, the blended annualized base rent per square foot on the signed but not yet commenced pool is $21.11 approximately 23% above our portfolio average, reflecting the below market rent basis in our centers that our team continues to capture the upside on. We expect approximately $41,000,000 or 61 percent of ABR in the signed but not commenced pool to commence in the remainder of 2024. From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to hold the proceeds from our $400,000,000 January bond offering in stable, high yield accounts in advance of repaying $300,000,000 of our 3.65 percent bonds when they mature in June. At March 31, we had a total liquidity of $1,700,000,000 and our debt to EBITDA on a trailing 12 month basis was 5.9 times, leaving us well positioned to execute on our business plan and with the flexibility to opportunistically access the capital markets. And since last quarter's call, our credit rating has been placed on a positive outlook by Moody's, recognizing the improvements that have been made to the balance sheet over the past several years.

Speaker 3

In terms of our forward outlook, given the continued strength in the leasing environment, we have increased our same property NOI growth to a range of 3.5% to 4.25%, comprised of a 425 basis point to 4 75 basis point contribution from base rent, which includes approximately 40 basis points of top line drag at the midpoint from national tenant disruption, as we have better visibility at this point in the year. With respect to revenues deemed uncollectible, a significant portion of the outperformance in Q1, as I indicated earlier, was timing related. As such, we still expect revenues deemed uncollectible to end the year within our historical run rate of 75 to 110 basis points of total revenues. But the signs we are seeing in our tenant base are encouraging with strong payment trends illustrating the improvements in the credit quality of our tenants. In conjunction with the increase in our same property NOI expectation, we have raised our guidance for 2020 4 NAREIT FFO to a range of $2.08 to $2.11 per share.

Speaker 3

In summary, we are grateful for continued execution by the Brixmor team as we continue to create value for our stakeholders. And with that, I turn the call over to the operator for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will now conduct a question and answer session. Our first question is from Samir Khanal with Evercore. Please proceed.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, everyone. I guess maybe help us unpack the same store NOI guidance, the revised one, what you're assuming sort of this time around for bad debt assumptions? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Why don't I take that first Samir and then I'll hand it to Steve. So when we spoke on the last call, our guidance provided for a fairly wide range of tenant disruption. And we felt as though and talked about it, we had the ability to outperform. And as you look at the start of the year, tenant disruption has effectively been non existent, right? With the Joanne filing quickly going through the process, no downtime in rent and no store closures.

Speaker 2

And then if you look at all we've done across the portfolio to improve the tenant base, you see record low move outs, you see record retention there. So we feel like the start of the year has been pretty strong from that regard. Now we're still watching certain categories and certain tenants, but we feel pretty encouraged in terms of what we're seeing on the bad debt front. And then maybe I'll hand it to Steve in terms of how that flows through the guidance.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean from a guidance perspective, if you remember going back to our initial guidance, we had about 100 basis points of drag in same property NOI for this tenant disruption And we as I said in my prepared remarks, that's sort of down at 40 basis points of same property NOI drag. And then while we're seeing great trends in the revenue deemed uncollectible, we still think we'll end up the year because it's mainly timing related in the 75 to 110 basis points of total revenue. So hopefully that helps.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then just shifting over to the transaction market, given what rates have done, maybe talk around kind of what you're seeing out there, buyer appetite? And how do we think about your strategy, the strategy this year? I mean, should we expect you to be net acquirers this year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

I'll just take it quickly and then I'll hand it to Mark, Sameer. We have talked on the last several calls, you've heard Jim talk about it, about being patient, being prudent and the market starting to come our way a little bit as it relates to seller expectations. And as I pointed out in my opening remarks, we started to see that in the deal we closed last week. But let me let Mark touch on the overall transaction market and what he's seeing.

Speaker 4

Well, thanks Brian. Well, one of the things we mentioned on the Q1 call is that we think we've got the ability to source some well priced asset level capital out of our portfolio. So if you look at those sales in Q1, the blended cap rate was a mid 4% cap and in part driven by the sale of Mullens 63rd which we do think is a really good example of our capital allocation discipline. When we sold that asset, we kind of looked at the value creation we thought would be available in redevelopment and where we transacted. We thought we were capturing that value today, which we do think provides really well priced capital to push the growth plans forward in the market.

Speaker 4

With respect to acquisitions and the overall market, as we've highlighted, we were pretty cautious on the market, but we're definitely seeing more attractive opportunities today as sellers that come to the market are much more realistic in terms of pricing given some of the capital market changes that you've referenced. We will say we're really pleased with the close of West Center last week. We bought that at a low 7 cap in a very affluent part of Long Island next to a center we call 3 villages. And we see really strong mark to market at West Center. But ultimately as we continue to cluster our investments as we have in the past, we see the ability to drive value across both centers on Long Island.

Speaker 4

So we think we'll be a bit more constructive on acquisitions going forward. We're not going to give guidance as we don't with respect to volume here, but we should expect to certainly discipline. But we are seeing a building pipeline

Speaker 2

today. And that last point Sameer is important. I just end with that as we are going to remain patient. We with our self funded business plan with the growth and you're seeing the growth come through in our operations, the growth that we're delivering quarter after quarter, it's not that we have to go the external growth front from an acquisition standpoint, but we're encouraged by what we're seeing in the transaction market overall.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I just first wanted to touch on the leasing environment, which has continued to be strong. In other sectors, we've heard about capital markets volatility and the higher interest rate environment having an impact on tenant demand, longer decision making also having an impact on expansion plans. It doesn't sound like you're seeing that across your portfolio based on your comments around leasing demand.

Speaker 5

Is that the right read? And why is tenant demand in retail not necessarily being impacted to the same degree?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, I think on the first part, Todd, we remain incredibly encouraged by what we're seeing on the leasing front. You look at the volume during the quarter of $700,000 it's in line with the volume that we did Q1 of last year And that's after we grew occupancy 110 basis points. And we talked about coming out of New York ICSC tenants there. We're looking at plans for stores in 2025 and 2026.

Speaker 2

That's still the conversations we're having as we have a full schedule heading in to ICSC Vegas this year. And I think in terms of why you're seeing it, it's really a couple of reasons. First, the supply environment remains incredibly constricted. There's just not a lot out there in terms of vacancy. And then you just look at the uses that continue to thrive in this environment and it's everybody who we're doing business with, whether that's specialty grocery, whether that's health and wellness, whether that's QSR, restaurants, whether that's value apparel, these businesses continue to perform well.

Speaker 2

They're very intentional with their store opening plans. They know the markets that they want to be in and they want to get ahead of space that could be could potentially get back. Our team is not just talking to them about our vacancies of which we have a lot less today. They're talking about the spaces that we could ultimately get back like during the quarter where we took back a big lots that was expiring next year and we backfilled that with an Aldi at a 50 percent rent uptick. So these are the types of tenants that are expanding and we remain incredibly encouraged and look forward to the ICSC show here in a couple of weeks to continue to push things forward.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then Steve, you mentioned that revenues deemed uncollectible at 75 to 110 basis points of total revenue. That's the historical level for the portfolio. You maintained that here for the year. But with the 1 first quarter sort of favorable result, that would imply an above average level of revenues deemed uncollectible in the remaining quarters.

Speaker 5

Can you just reconcile that against the sort of the positive comments here about tenant health and the lack of tenant disruption so far to date?

Speaker 3

Sure. As we've discussed in the past, cash basis accounting can lead to volatility in revenues deemed uncollectible from quarter to quarter. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we recognized $2,000,000 net in the quarter related to collections of real estate tax reconciliations from cash basis tenant. And we expect this to reverse as we move through the year. And typically, the seasonality on these non recurring collections is focused in the first half of the year versus the second half of the year.

Speaker 2

And Todd, look, this is kind of a first normalized year where we're not seeing as much on the out of period collection front. So as we came into the year, we felt like we were appropriately conservative in terms of that line item and we're seeing some good trends and we're certainly encouraged. There are categories and tenants who we're keeping an eye on. But to your point and as I pointed out in my opening remarks, all the work the team's done across the portfolio has positioned us for a stronger underlying tenant base. But we felt it was prudent to as we are in kind of a normal course year for the 1st full operating year from since pre pandemic to really get some further trends on that number as we balance through the year.

Speaker 5

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed. Alexander, your line is live.

Speaker 6

Sorry about that. Yes, yes, I'm here. Sorry, I had the mute on. Good morning, Dan there. Just first, obviously, wishing Jim speedy recovery and Brian and Steve, testament to you guys for such a strong quarter despite your coach sidelined.

Speaker 6

So obviously speaks to the team and culture that Jim has built. Let me ask you this first question, Brian. You know that I've asked a lot about ways that you guys have improved your leverage with tenants to drive NOI, etcetera. But specifically on the leases themselves, not the CapEx, not the commissions or anything like that, but on the actual leases, are you guys finding ways to increase the actual cash margin on the leases or the way the lease structures are, which I'm assuming are mostly triple net, there's really not any leverage that you have in there to have to expand the cash that you drive out of the leases themselves, whether it's recoveries or bill backs or whatever, just trying to think along those lines?

Speaker 2

Well, first, appreciate the kind words about Jim. We certainly miss them. And I think the results speak to really the confidence in the broader team in terms of the team's ability to continue to deliver and we're really excited by it and the work that they did to start the year. One of the things that's been encouraging to us is not just what you see in rate, it's not just what you see in rent increases, which across the portfolio this quarter are new rent bumps were about 2.5%. That's versus in place of 1.5%.

Speaker 2

We continue to make a lot of progress there. Small shops were closer to 3%. But to your point about what are some of the other things we're doing, we are absolutely looking at CAM language and softening that up, investments that that the investments that we're making in our centers were getting paid back for. We've been extremely focused on eliminating non cumulative caps across the portfolio, really eliminating caps in general. And then we have been laser focused in terms of where we are deploying fixed cam.

Speaker 2

We've done that with a lot of local tenants. It's about 22% of our ABR. We're growing those fixed cam rates at over 4% today. And when we're setting those rates, we have really good visibility in terms of the OpEx spend. So there are other things in the lease in terms of how we're driving income.

Speaker 2

The other thing that we're doing particularly with restaurants in this environment is being much more aggressive on the percentage rent front, right? Really understanding what their sales projection is at the shopping center, really understanding. So we're setting those breakpoints appropriately, so we can not just drive a very high rate initially like you saw with the small shop rents of $30 a square foot during the quarter, but that we can also recognize some upside if they perform well. So all these things I think does speak to the environment, but it's not just the environment, right? It's all the stuff that we've done in our shopping centers here over the past few years in terms of the tenants that we brought in, the traffic that we're generating.

Speaker 2

It's allowing us to drive these things with really great tenants.

Speaker 6

Okay. The second question is, and maybe this is just sort of urban myth or to to cut down on what they eat, although try going to a Chick Fil A or In N Out and you wait in line forever. So is all this weight loss stuff the Internet legend? Is this just sort of myth or are you actually seeing or hearing any of your food tenants actually talk about this?

Speaker 7

Well, I

Speaker 2

think Internet and myth aside, wellness has become more essential. And what I mean by that is, if you think about the how people are thinking about their overall health and fitness expansion and medtail expansion and the quality of better operators in the QSR space. There was an article out in the journal, I think last week related to how people are willing to pay more at Chipotle than they are at McDonald's because it's a healthier proposition, right? They feel like they're getting healthier food. So I think this does tie into overall wellness.

Speaker 2

And generally when we're seeing that folks get in shape, they want to stay in shape. And so there we're seeing a better quality of gym operator. We're seeing a better quality of medical service use at our shopping centers. And then you are seeing a better quality in terms of those higher end healthier options like Sweet Greens and Kava that are really focused on expanding their suburban footprint. So again, whether it's Ozempic or something else, what we are seeing is that people are much more focused on their health and their well-being and we're seeing that come through in the deals that we sign in our centers.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Juan Sanbria with BMO Capital. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning and hoping for a speedy recovery for Jim as well. I just wanted to piggyback on Alex's question there. The story this morning out of Walmart shuttering its health centers. I mean, again, just Internet myth or anecdotal, it does seem like there's been a huge proliferation of urgent cares and understandably so with just the ease of meeting the customers where they are. But just curious on how you're feeling about your exposure to some of this Medtail or Urgent Care specifically and the credit risk there or is that trend kind of past its peak?

Speaker 8

Just curious on your general thoughts to that.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think the sales become an important part of our shopping centers. I mean back to Alex's question just in terms of our lease structures, right. Our lease structures today allow for more fitness. They allow for more medical. They allow for restaurants that are closer to their shopping center to their stores.

Speaker 2

They allow for pads that are closer to their stores because these retailers use anchors. They recognize the traffic. They recognize their customer that's going to these places. Medtail has been a good component of our tenant mix in terms of urgent care operators, in terms of dentists, in terms of some of the medical service operators. We've even done some things with kind of pet hospitals too.

Speaker 2

The interesting thing about these uses, Juan, is they're incredibly well capitalized because they are more capital intensive, they're more expensive build outs, but they're generally the highest rent payers in the shopping center because they want some of the most high profile spaces. So we think it's a good component of our shopping centers. And just as it relates to bring up credit underwriting, I think it does go back to some of the trends that we're seeing in retention and move outs. We put a very robust credit underwriting process and coming out of COVID and you're seeing that pay dividends in terms of the underlying credit base, the collection trends that we're seeing as well as what's coming through in those move outs and retention. So that's something even with those uses, we're laser focused when we are putting some capital to work in terms of what the underlying credit base is.

Speaker 2

And so far, we feel pretty good about the operators who we're bringing to our centers and the strength of those signatures.

Speaker 8

Thanks. And then for my follow-up, just hoping you could expand a little bit on clustering and where really the opportunity lies? Is it just to be more efficient with internal costs of running those assets that are close by and maybe using man hours or FTEs for both centers versus having to double up if they were further apart? And or is it related to being able to more efficiently put retailers where they're best placed? So just curious if you could expand on the importance of clustering for you?

Speaker 9

Yes.

Speaker 2

Why don't I have Mark take that?

Speaker 4

Yes. It's a number of the items you hit on. We've got a very strong platform here and we find and we put assets in front of the platform, we perform better. We perform better because of some of the issues you're talking about. We can be much more efficient with operations.

Speaker 4

When you're a large landlord in a market, you can be very efficient with the contracts you get for cleaning and things like that. Ultimately, when you're a larger landlord in a market, you know where retailers want to be. You've got the leasing folks who are laser focused on finding where retailers want to move to. And that helps us both with the assets we run today. Also helps us find opportunities to buy something and know where we can drive value.

Speaker 4

So we're not really guessing where the value can be driven on acquisitions. We have a real clear business plan as to where retailers want to be, what the center is missing, what's needed to do to get the center up to speed. And ultimately one of the things we see is we can be more efficient than many small landlords in these markets. We see that flow through the NOI almost day 1 on these acquisitions.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Juan, Mark hit most of the points. I would just add to the point of understanding the market where you think about Philadelphia Plymouth Meeting where our office is down there. We own 2 assets, one of the best intersections in that submarket. If you're small shop tenants coming into that market, you're coming to us, right?

Speaker 2

And that's the same thing in San Diego. That's the same thing in Houston. It's the same thing in the center that we just bought in Long Island. So it does allow us both from a merchandising standpoint to really see some of the best operators that are coming into those markets. And certainly when you control both sides of the street or you're close by, it allows us those efficiencies that Mark was talking about, but also improves our ability to drive rate.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning. Good morning. Brian, just want to go back to your commentary on the kind of lower churn, higher retention here. I fully understand it's always better to keep a tenant lower CapEx. But as you guys are trying to remerchandise centers and kind of bring ABRs up over time, how much of kind of a toggle do you guys have versus having that retention high versus making sure you're not renewing tenants that maybe don't fit the 5 to 10 year strategic vision for that center?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a great question. And just say that we've never managed this portfolio for occupancy. Occupancy gains are the results of all the good things that we've been doing across the portfolio and we're going to continue to be opportunistic and very intentional in terms of proactively taking space back. You look at our anchor deals over the last year, about a quarter of them were space we took back proactively, right? So when we see the opportunity to drive rents or to put a better tenant in and to do it accretively, we're going to do it.

Speaker 2

The interesting thing and really why we're highlighting the retention and the move outs is because we have significantly improved the tenant base of this portfolio. Those tenants are staying with us. They're investing in their businesses and they're renewing at among the highest rates that we've ever had in the portfolio. So it's really been a good mix. I do feel like an occupancy at these levels that allow us it allows us to be much more opportunistic in terms of ultimately when we do take space back.

Speaker 2

But particularly in this environment, as I mentioned, the discussions we're going to be having, we're having them now, but we're certainly going to be having them in a couple of weeks at ICSC are going to be about, hey, what's coming back next year and what's coming back in 2026 so that tenants can get ahead of that. So I really appreciate the question. It's still a very important part of what we do. But we were encouraged though by the retention trends and the low move outs as well as the start of the year. I just think it speaks to the overall health of the portfolio.

Speaker 7

And as you guys are renewing some of the tenants that are seeing the value and the work you guys have done, I mean, are you seeing a noticeable uptick in some of those renewal escalators? Or I know Alex said on some of the terms and things, but are the negotiations easier to push through some of these things that maybe pre renovations were kind of a steeper hill?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think that's coming through in our renewal growth. And I think we're now 9 consecutive quarters over 10% renewal growth across the portfolio. It's coming in those escalators and with small shops during the quarter we were pushing close to 3%. In some parts of the country we're doing 3% to 4%.

Speaker 2

I mentioned we are converting folks to fixed CAM in some cases particularly local tenants where we know we can set that rate. We feel good about it for the next several years and we're getting strong growth rates of 4% to 5% in that. So yes, it's certainly a component of what we've been doing and it is a big reason to that or the primary driver that is all the work that we've done in our centers. It's also really expensive to move a business today and the environment in terms of supply environment and availability is pretty tight too. So that's helping us as well.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 7

If I could sneak one more in for Steve. The 61% of ABR to commence the remainder of the year, is that 61% of the annualized or is that on a kind of what's going to actually impact 24?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean the amount commencing during the year, I think it's also listed in the supplemental is about 41, but we do expect it to sort of come in ratably throughout the year. Yes.

Speaker 2

And that's the annual number. Yes, Frank.

Speaker 8

Okay. All right, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Haendel St. Jude with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed. Hey,

Speaker 10

guys. Thanks for taking the question and best wishes to Jim.

Speaker 2

Yes, Haendel. We appreciate it.

Speaker 10

I was hoping we could talk a little bit about the redevelopment pipeline beyond this year. I think you talked about delivering about half of it this year. Yields are in that 9% plus range. So what are the prospects for backfilling? Should we expect the sizing and the yield to be relatively the same as you bring new projects on board?

Speaker 10

Just curious where that pipeline could be heading?

Speaker 2

Yes. So we've talked about it. We mentioned on our last call that we expect about $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 of deliveries each year. That's effectively what we've been delivering. We're going to deliver on the high side of that this year with a number of those projects that I mentioned.

Speaker 2

It's really encouraging that we have several years of visibility to that going forward, Haendel, with projects that are soon to be in the pipeline. Remember, the projects that we're bringing in are lower risk because they're generally pre leased. We have upped our leasing thresholds across the portfolio in this environment. Our underwriting has gotten a bit tighter in terms of really driving more to that higher to the single digits and into the low double digits from a return standpoint. But we feel like we have several years of that $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 of deliveries.

Speaker 2

And the timing a lot of this is going to be driven by leases. Ultimately when we can get to those leases or when we complete a first phase and then we decide that we want to come back for phase 2. We just opened a couple of weeks ago a Sprouts in Los Angeles in a former Big Lots space. That was a Phase 2 of a project a few years after we took a Kmart back and put a Burlington in the Chew's Fitness in. It allowed us to be able to not only bring Sprouts in, but strike an economic deal that we were more comfortable with at that time.

Speaker 2

I think that would have been pretty challenging had we not gotten that first phase done. So as you think about the projects going forward, we do feel pretty good about that run rate and it's going to be a mix of ultimately when we can get to those leases to be able to execute and then second phases of projects.

Speaker 4

Then Haendel one thing I would add using one of my favorite Jim Taylor terms is, we can find more pull for the fire on the acquisition side like we've done over the years with Plaza Via the Sea, Venice or Bonita Springs that came in with some really great redevelopment opportunities. So we think we can continue to find opportunities to build that pipeline over time.

Speaker 10

Great. Appreciate the color there guys. One more just on retention. You've seen retention here remain pretty sticky in this kind of upper 80%, low 90% range. Is that kind of the expectation near term with the portfolio occupancy where it is the demand you're seeing?

Speaker 10

And then how does that how much can that benefit your leasing related CapEx on a go forward? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well to the last point, it's obviously a lot cheaper to keep a tenant in place than it is to backfill a tenant, right? I would say generally though our team across the board has done a nice job holding costs in line, negotiating work scopes that are favorable. And then the tenant side, they've been more willing really coming out of the pandemic and some of the supply chain issues to take more existing conditions. So I'd say we've been more efficient as efficient as we can be on the new lease front.

Speaker 2

But back to kind of Craig's question, we've been encouraged by the retention trends. And in this environment, how we've improved the portfolio, you'd expect those to trend up. But that's not going to drive our decisions ultimately of when we take space back. We've got a very low rent basis in place. Our anchor deals are less than $9 and we've been signing those leases at over $15 So you look at that upside.

Speaker 2

When I say those anchor leases at $9 that's expiring over the next 3 years. So we feel pretty good about our ability to take space back and bring leases to market and we're going to be intentional and prudent about it. But with some of the stronger operators that we put into our centers, they do want to stay, they do want to continue to invest in their businesses with us and you're seeing that come through in the retention rate. So I guess I'd summarize by saying it's a mix and we're not going to let that metric though drive our decisions. We're going to do what's right for the shopping center and continue to be opportunistic where we can make money.

Speaker 10

And then just a follow-up on that. I guess given your willingness to take back some of the space, does that suggest that the snow rent, that spread, which has remained pretty elevated in the high 300s to 400s for some time, does that suggest that the spread will remain in that range? Or can we see that actually come in over the next year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

I think you'd expect it to tighten over time. I mean there was a lot of space that we back last year, but I think what that spread does give you is good visibility to future growth, right? And it reached a record this quarter at 68,000,000 dollars As Steve mentioned, about 2 thirds of that is going to come in this year. But that's a good thing, right? When you're raising leased occupancy and that spread still continues to grow, it just gives good visibility on future growth.

Speaker 2

But I think over time, you'd expect that to tighten a bit.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Dore Kestin with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Good morning. Can you comment on your current level of interest in acquiring the portfolio? And are there any out there today that you've heard of?

Speaker 2

Yes. I would just start by saying it's not something that we've said we have it's something that we've looked at. It doesn't fit for us in terms of what we're doing and all the things that Mark had talked about. I'll give it to Mark. He and his team have done a great job in terms of one asset at a time continuing to grow in the markets that we like to grow in, but it's an option for us.

Speaker 2

It's not something that we would say absolutely yes or absolutely no to, it have to work for us. So, Mark, you want to expand on that

Speaker 4

a little bit? Absolutely. There are certainly larger pools of assets that are seeking to transact in today's environment. I think most folks are approaching the asset on a one off basis, which makes sense. We are certainly seeing a cap rate differential as assets get larger in size cap rates are a little wider.

Speaker 4

But with that said, I totally agree with Brian. We're going to be disciplined as we look at putting capital out. So if there's a deal that makes sense and works for us, we would pursue it. To the extent it doesn't, we wouldn't.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank

Operator

you. With that, our next question comes from Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Speaker 12

Great. Good morning. I'd also like to express my best wishes for Jim and the speedy recovery. Congrats on the quarter. My first question, maybe we've discussed a lot today.

Speaker 12

You touched on ICSC. With ICSC coming up, I guess any particular goals for the team? As you said, it sounds like you're working mainly on maybe 25% to into 26%?

Speaker 2

Hey, Jeff. Well, first appreciate the kind words and the thoughts for Jim. We always go into that conference with a certain number of new tenants that we want to bring out of it. We want to bring, we highlight for the team and really track who's brought a new deal out of it that didn't happen at the conference. And then what are some things that we've moved forward in terms of of some of those larger projects in our pipeline, which as I mentioned are generally pre leased, but we may have a space or 2 left.

Speaker 2

I mean those three things are kind of the biggest things come out. We always highlight for the team the new concepts that were in the booth for the first time and we expect to see a lot of those. And we don't really necessarily sign leases at ICSE anymore in terms of actually signing them in the booth. Although at New York ICSE, we did have one of our national tenants came in and signed a number of consents and gave us hard copies there. So that's always a win as well.

Speaker 2

But I'd say kind of those three things related to new tenants, deals you didn't expect coming out of it and then ultimately moving some larger things forward on our reinvestment projects.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you. And then in terms of store openings and markets, can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in terms of demand for particular regions or markets? Thank you.

Speaker 6

What's

Speaker 2

been encouraging to us is it's been fairly broad based across the portfolio. Like I mentioned those 3 grocer deals that we did during the quarter, they were in 3 of our 3 different regions. We've seen strong demand and small and strong occupancy growth really across the portfolio. Obviously, the Southeast remains very hot and the tightness in supply is probably a bit tighter there, tighter in Southern California. But I would say though even places like in the Northeast and the Midwest, we continue to see very strong demand.

Speaker 2

So, what's been encouraging to us is it's fairly broad based and it's really because as Mark was touching on, I mean, we've had an intentional strategy in terms of where we've located our centers and where we're operating today. So in those markets, the trends have been pretty consistent across the board.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Speaker 13

Hey, good morning. Sorry if I missed this, but Jim previously communicated an expectation from the announcement of new CFO by early He's

Speaker 2

really stepped up. He's built a great team down in Plymouth. He's really stepped up. He's built a great team down in Plymouth and we're fortunate to have him. I would expect that he'd continue in that role until we have further announcement.

Speaker 2

We're not putting a timetable on it, but I'd say we're lucky to have him in the seat.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thanks. And then in that 75 to 100 basis points of expected bad debt expense in guidance, is there anything built in that specifically or maybe generally addresses the risk from big lots? And are those any of those leases expiring in the near term? Would you potentially re lease any of those?

Speaker 13

Should we expect them all to be taken back and backfilled as you can?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'd say just generally for the watch list and it does tie into bad debt a little bit. I mean it's certainly names and categories that everyone on this call would expect that we'd have. As it relates to big lots, since you raised them, we focused just on the real estate and I think we talked about this on the last call. First of all, we have no more expirations this year.

Speaker 2

Our rents in those spaces are below $7 a foot. We've been signing them at $15 We leased Big Lots space during the quarter that expires next year to Aldi at a 50% uptick outside of Portland, Maine. So we continue to look at opportunities really for every tenant where we might potentially want to take some space back, but not getting into particular tenant names, but we feel like we're adequately provisioned for our watch list as we head through the balance of the year.

Speaker 3

Yes. And I think as I mentioned earlier in terms of just our capacity to absorb tenant disruption not focused on any names. We have 40 basis points of drag in our base rent. And that's really because that's where ultimately that would go through if we ended up getting those spaces back in the bankruptcy. And then on top of that, we have the 75 to 110 of total revenues in the revenue schemes on collectible lines.

Speaker 3

So we still think we're well positioned there to absorb a variety of outcomes as we move through the year.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 14

You

Operator

bet. The next question comes from Floris Van Geech with Compass Point. Please proceed.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, guys. Somewhat unprecedented times, obviously, with no permanent CEO and permanent CFO and obviously best wishes to Jim, hope he recovers speedily. I know you can't really comment much, but I know it's on everybody's mind. But maybe could you give some insight into how the Board thinks about this and what kind of steps the Board is taking to plan for eventualities and backup plans if you will?

Speaker 2

Of course, like we talked about at the beginning and first of all, appreciate the well wishes for Jim. We look forward to having him back here soon. But we're not saying much more outside of what's in the release. And we continue to operate business as usual here and we don't until we have a further update that's what we're going to continue to communicate as it relates to Jim.

Speaker 9

Okay. By the way, operations seem to be going well. You talked a little bit about Medtail and there's sort of the secular demand driver for Open Air from Medtail. Maybe if you could touch upon what percentage of leasing you're seeing from that segment? And how do you think about when you're looking at Medtail, it's not necessarily

Speaker 4

judge

Speaker 9

the profitability and how do you set rents for this tenant category?

Speaker 2

So thinking about just as I mentioned, we from a tenant underwriting perspective on these operators because we are putting some capital and some of them are public companies that their financial information is readily available. I would say generally those rents have been top of market where we ultimately don't get health ratios, we do have a sense sometimes from a traffic perspective. We can look at traffic they're generating depending on the size of the operator. But I would say broadly those are some of the highest rent payers in the space because they're looking for high profile space generally end caps generally looking to be on pads and they are competing with tenants. We have a very good idea of what their occupancy costs are.

Speaker 2

So I'd say broadly when we're underwriting these spaces, we have a good sense when we underwriting some of these tenants and we get their financials, we have a good sense of their profitability. We have a good sense of their underlying financial wherewithal. But I would say broadly though they're among the highest rent payers that we see in our centers.

Speaker 9

And in terms of potential percentage of leasing demand where it is today and where do you see this going?

Speaker 2

Yes. So we did 5 new ones this quarter in terms of specific medical uses and it's going to be a range, right? I mean that would be call it 4% of what we ultimately did from account perspective during the quarter. Again, I would just point to it is a part of the merchandising puzzle that we're putting together in these centers where we could potentially add an urgent care work if we potentially add dentists, we can potentially add medical service use. So, I'd just say it's something that we continue to look at.

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Tayo Afzania with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Speaker 14

Yes. Good morning. Just wanted to get your thoughts on the latest developments with the Kroger, Albertson merger and this idea of their willingness to kind of spin off more stores, whether you generally think that's good or bad for the shopping center read?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think just broadly, I mean, we don't have much more to report outside of what's been publicly disclosed. I'd say it's in with the FTC right now and with the courts in terms of if it ultimately moves forward. And what we've said in the past and what we really believe is that our portfolio sets up very well no matter what the outcome is. We do think a merger would be beneficial particularly for, Albertsons in terms of scale and in terms of some of digital infrastructure that Kroger has that is a bit ahead of where Albertsons is.

Speaker 2

But ultimately, you look at the few markets where we do have overlap, it's places like Denver, Dallas, Southern California. I mean these are some of the strongest markets that we have across the portfolio. We have very minimal overlap with our Kroger fleet in the Midwest. We have very little overlap with our Kroger fleet in the Southeast, which is really the bulk of our overall exposure. So we feel pretty good no matter what the outcome is.

Speaker 2

These stores are high producing, from a sales volume perspective. Kept their COVID pumps and continue to grow sales and these stores have been invested in as well. So, remains to be seen. We're watching it closely, but we feel well positioned no matter what happens.

Speaker 14

Okay. Thank you. And then if I could just sneak in one more, sticking with this kind of M and A theme, but as it pertains to the shopping center read. Again, any viewpoints and if you kind of see more public to public deals as you've seen in the past few years, again, the stocks themselves are not really moving that much on a year to date basis. Valuations still feel very cheap relative to historical levels.

Speaker 14

And you have pretty much the entire sector talking about fundamentals at the best of it ever again?

Speaker 2

I'll have Mark take that one.

Speaker 4

Yes. Look, we've certainly seen some strong consolidation trends in the Open Air space. We think that's been a trend. It's been a trend frankly people have been talking about in Open Air Retail for many years and really this is kind of the first large wave we've seen in some time. From our perspective, we're going to continue to drive forward our business plan, which we think is delivering top of sector results and that's what we're focused on currently.

Speaker 14

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning everyone. I know we've talked about it in a few different ways, the leasing strength, but wondering if you could give some additional details on kind of who's most active these days with leasing on the small shop side and the big box side? And maybe over the past year, could you share some detail on who's gotten more active versus pulled back at all?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think it's a great question, Caitlin. First of all, from an anchor perspective, we continue to see great trends in specialty grocery, whether that's from Sprouts, whether that's from Aldi, whether that's from Whole Foods is really picking up their store opening plans as well. So that's been encouraging across the board. We've also seen some great local grocers.

Speaker 2

We signed 1 outside of Minneapolis this year, some good ethnic grocers in markets. El Rancho, part of the Heritage Grocer Group, we signed them in Houston this quarter. We continue to see really good strength in value apparel from both from Burlington Ross and TJ. Ross is pushing into the Northeast. They've done very well in some of their initial rollouts in the Midwest, but this kind of new white space for them as well.

Speaker 2

And then in that kind of 10,000 square foot box range is incredibly competitive. The likes of the 5 Below, Ulta, Sephora, Skechers, JD Sports coming out of the mall. So from a junior box perspective, those all remain incredibly active. And then on the small shop space, QSR restaurants and very well capitalized QSR restaurants are driving a lot of that expansion. With some with some of the trends they've been seeing in suburban retail are positioning more of their store opening plans for the suburbs.

Speaker 2

So that's been really encouraging.

Speaker 11

Got it. Makes sense. And then just a quick follow-up on the Long Island acquisition in the quarter. You guys mentioned a low 7% cap rate and that there were some good mark to market opportunities among other benefits. That 7% cap rate, is that on the in place NOI or some near term benefits you're expecting?

Speaker 5

Yes. That 7% cap rate, what

Speaker 4

I'm quoting you is the in place NOI. I know that includes a 3% management fee. That's non cash from our perspective, but that's the capital I'm quoting to you.

Speaker 11

Got it. Okay, thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. Just one for me. Good morning. So ancillary and other rental income and percentage rents contributed nicely to same store NOI growth in the quarter, I think 0.6% total. What's your effect from those line items going forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think when you just think about same property NOI in total, right, the trajectory of that will mainly be driven by base rent throughout the year. As you know, base rent contributed 3.8% to the same property NOI growth in Q1 and that was mainly due to higher occupancy and rent spreads and we expect that accelerate throughout the year as I mentioned in my prepared remarks of 425 to 475 contribution to same property NOI. Those line items as you go down are sort of seasonality, right? So they change quarter to quarter as you move throughout the year and there's some volatility in there.

Speaker 3

So as I'm thinking about same property NOI, I would focus probably more on that base rent line because I think ultimately that's going to be what drives that performance.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think just I would just highlight the percentage rent. We continue to see some nice trends. I income from our portfolio income from our portfolio. As you can imagine, as our team is filling up boxes, we have less opportunity for some of those short term deals, but they're doing a great job in things like solar and EV charging stations and really utilizing our parking lots too.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 6

Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi.

Speaker 9

It looks like I mean your option leases always tend to produce the lowest rent spreads. Are those generally tied to anchor leases? And do you ever have the ability to use fair market resets just given the strong demand backdrop?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a great question. Just first as it relates to kind of the option productivity, the count was in line with where we've been the last few quarters. The reason that you're seeing the GLA uptick, we had 3 spaces, 2 Home Depots and a Kroger all over 100,000 square feet that took their options during the quarter. I think the removing options or reducing options something our team has been laser focused on. We've almost been able to get rid of those with local tenants.

Speaker 2

I think they were just over 10% during the quarter. What we've also been able to do with some anchor tenants is maybe where they were getting 4 options in the past, they're now getting 2. And to your point about fair market value, 5 years ago that was really more of a West Coast type concept and where we've had to give those national tenants. We've been introducing that really across the country and setting those rates with growth. So, we don't like options.

Speaker 2

They're totally in the tenants' favor. We've been focused on removing them. If you sit in leasing committee on a Friday, you'd hear, hey, do you have to give that tenant the option or can you give that tenant a fair market value option? So it is something that we are continue to be laser focused on, but the activity during the quarter is just in relation to the pool.

Speaker 9

Got it. Okay. That was it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

The next question comes from Paulina Rojas with Green Street. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 15

Good morning. You mentioned there are always 10 categories that you're watching closely. So what are those categories today?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think there if you look at some in the home category, there's been some a bit of challenges there after a big pop coming out of COVID. There are some level of entertainment uses. Entertainment is a very small piece of what we do. We only have about 1% of our rent come from movie theaters.

Speaker 2

But I'd say that entertainment category and there are some discounters that are on there certainly as well. That watch list has gone down certainly. And again, you look at the underlying credit base of the portfolio and you can see that coming through from a move out perspective, from a retention perspective as well as just our collection rates from small shop tenants continue to remain very strong. But those are some of the categories I'd say we're keeping our eye on.

Speaker 15

And then I have very like big picture general question. Do you think it makes a big difference for tenants today to be in a REIT owned property or in another privately owned center?

Operator

And I

Speaker 15

assume, of course, tenants, they prefer owners with better balance sheet, committed to reinvest in the center, etcetera. But I'm trying to have a sense of how of the quality of private operators in the industry and whether tenants perceived a big benefit in being in a read on center?

Speaker 2

They definitely do. And I think it's a matter of have you performed, right? Have you been able to execute on delivering their space? Have you been able to execute on bringing other tenants that are going to help them drive traffic? This is the one asset class where it really matters who your neighbor is, right?

Speaker 2

And have you been able to put that tenant mix together to ensure that they're successful at the property? Have you continued to invest in the center as we have? So I think that's certainly looking at how your track record historically. And then even from a negotiation standpoint, right? How quickly does it take you to get through the lease?

Speaker 2

How quickly can they count on you to be able to get a consent from a tenant to be able to ultimately do their use? And I think our team has done a great job historically of being able to perform on that. So certainly, I don't think it just matters if it's public versus private. I also think it matters who it is in the public space. And I'd put our team up with anybody in terms of our ability to execute and our ability to deliver with our national retail partners.

Speaker 4

Yes. I would add that there are certainly some excellent privately held retail owners in the United States. No question about it. One of the things that we really benefit from is the scale that we've able to invest in our platform to have those tenant relationships to understand where tenants want to be, have great relationships on the operating side. That's a real benefit from us.

Speaker 4

As we think about our external growth program, certainly we talk to all the privately held folks about assets they might sell. But we're also focused on a lot of the assets that are held in small partnerships for families and that's the vast majority of the market for a lot of assets we chase. We think about some of the great acquisitions we've made over the years. They've come from smaller family operators that didn't have the wherewithal that some of the operators like we have to drive value at the centers. So we're excited about continued optionality as we think about external growth here.

Speaker 15

Makes sense. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks Paulina.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed. Just one quick one. Given higher demand, are payback periods on building out for new tenants going down at all?

Speaker 2

They are, Linda. I'd say they are. And it goes back to just generally both tenants' willingness to take more existing conditions. And yes competition for space allowing us to drive better terms in those work scopes. But we're seeing them go down for sure.

Operator

Any quantification around how much it's going down?

Speaker 2

I don't have the exact number, but I just say from a trend perspective it is something that we have been ahead of and looking at and generally something that we look at I think anecdotally when it's coming in through committee in terms of what the payback is. And because of the fact that we have seen tenants take more whether it's as is deals or be more efficient in terms of in place bathrooms and facades and loading docks that we're seeing some positive trends. I mean we can circle back with an exact number for you.

Operator

Thanks. The next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 16

Thank you. First best wishes, Su Jin. I think most people on this call really like the guy and hope he does well.

Speaker 9

So if I just looked

Speaker 16

at your results and looked at your leasing volume and spreads, I would think the U. S. Consumer is on really good footing, right? And your occupancy levels are high. But I also kind of go back to thinking about the Sports Authority or Barnes and there's many retailers that open stores right up to bankruptcy.

Speaker 16

So I was just curious what you're hearing or seeing on the ground in terms of customer strength or weakness in different categories?

Speaker 2

Yes. We can see it come through in our traffic, right, which has continued to grow year over year. We had good traffic trends in both March February. It was a little bit light in January, just some seasonality of that from a weather standpoint. But other than that, we've seen some growth year over year.

Speaker 2

And I tie back to the credit underwriting standards that we've been doing. I mean this isn't just for small shops, right? When our team is looking at an investment, we are looking at what's been their last what have been their comp sales performance, right? What's is this a market that they've expanded and how much capital are we putting into the space? So this certainly goes into our decisions.

Speaker 2

And I think you heard Jim talk about it on several calls in terms of how targeted this demand is. This isn't kind of exuberant demand chasing rooftops or chasing greenfield development. This is infill demand where tenants have realized that they're performing in a given market where they feel like they can put another store in and they're coming back to kind of more existing centers or centers that have been invested in. So we feel really good about the intentional demand. And you think about the data that our retailers have today versus some of the names historically that you mentioned, they know their customers eat a lot better than our do because we do because they get the credit card data.

Speaker 2

So I think when they're looking at their pro formas, they feel pretty good about hitting those sales projections. So I think overall that we're certainly encouraged, but we're doing a lot more work today around those decisions than we ever have.

Speaker 16

And on the urgent care topic, I was just curious, at least in New York, it does feel like these places charge more than just seeing your primary care physician or going to be a regular doctor. I'm not sure if that's the case across the country, but I'm just curious if in this inflationary environment, if that is a higher cost offering, if that's having an impact on consumer decisions?

Speaker 2

I also think it's based off of insurance and a lot of insurances are going to push folks to urgent cares versus kind of primary physicians. So I think that depends in a given environment. But ultimately it's the convenience right associated with it right to go and not sure if you can get an appointment you can pop in and be in there in an hour or so. So even some circumstances where you may pay a little bit more you're getting the care that you need very quickly.

Speaker 16

Okay. Thank

Operator

you. The next question comes from Greg McInnis with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Speaker 13

Hey, thanks for the follow-up. Just had a couple of quick ones on development. With the recent acquisition next to 3 villages, does that provide you ownership of that entire retail block or are there still some unowned adjacent parcels? And does the acquisition unlock larger redevelopment opportunities? Or what was the reasoning

Speaker 4

behind the acquisition? Yes. So when you look at Three Villages in West Center, ultimately there is kind of a third portion of that center where the other grocer is. And when we're talking about redevelopment there, probably over the long term given the incredibly supply constrained market there, there could be non retail uses. But that's not our plan.

Speaker 4

Our plan is to take advantage of owning West Center and Three Villages and really drive value across the retail platform we have in advance there. For example, since we now own West Center, we may be able to build an end cap drive through there, which we would not be able to do before. And conversely, the landlord who owned before couldn't do that either. So that's really just a small example if you think about that clustering and ability to put those 2 together to drive more value across both centers than you could owning just 1 or the other.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thanks. And then as a follow-up, we also noticed that Kessler and Northeast Plaza moved from major to minor redevelopments in the supplemental disclosure. Why did you decide against multifamily at Kessler and what changed at Northeast?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think we're always looking, Greg, at what the highest and best use is for the shopping center. I mean, we have in Northeast Plaza, it's just outside of Buckhead in Atlanta. We've had a ton of retail demand there. And I think what some of the challenges that we've been seeing in the multifamily market are causing us to relook at this as well.

Speaker 2

But ultimately if we see that we can drive great value and it could be highest and best use for retail, it makes sense. We also have some underlying leases there from a timing perspective. So we're balancing, okay, what can we do there long term? What's the demand from a retail standpoint? And how do we get to that space, right?

Speaker 2

How can we ultimately execute with some of the leases that we have in place? And then we found just a fantastic medical deal speaking of Medtail that we were able to get done in that location in Dallas at incredible uptick in rent with a minimal capital investment that made sense versus the timing of when we ultimately think we could execute on multifamily. So just because we I think we show that to you ultimately so you have visibility into the pipeline going forward, but things change, right? And we're nimble. And I think the plans that we have in place now are allowing us to really drive and create value for those centers and in those markets.

Speaker 4

One other thing I would add, as you look at our redevelopment plan, we've been getting great yields, which have been higher than say a multifamily project. And from a risk reward perspective, we are a retail owner. We know what we're doing in those situations. As you look at capital allocation, we're trying to be very disciplined. And to the extent there is really great multifamily demand, we may sell it like we did a couple of years ago in College Park, Maryland where we sold 1.6 acres for $32,000,000 to a developer.

Speaker 4

So we're going to always look for the right way to find good low cost capital and drive the business forward from here.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thank you both for the color. And Brian, nice job quarterbacking this call. Thanks.

Speaker 2

We appreciate it. We miss him, but look forward to having him back here soon.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Stacy Slater for closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thanks everyone for your time today and also for all your support.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a great day.

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Key Takeaways

  • 5.9% same property NOI growth in Q1 drove an improved 2024 outlook, raising full-year same property NOI guidance to 3.5–4.25% and NAREIT FFO to $2.08–$2.11 per share.
  • Executed 294 new and renewal leases covering 1.3 million sq ft (including 700,000 sq ft of new leases) with 40% average new leasing spreads and 20% renewal spreads.
  • Set portfolio records with 95.1% anchor occupancy, 90.5% small shop occupancy, lowest Q1 move-outs on record and 89% tenant retention, reflecting a more durable tenant base.
  • Built a signed-but-not-commenced pool of $68 million in annualized base rent (23% above portfolio average), with 61% expected to commence by year-end.
  • Maintains strong liquidity of $1.7 billion, 5.9× debt/EBITDA and a Moody’s positive outlook, while advancing a $400 million+ reinvestment pipeline targeting 9–12% returns and pursuing selective accretive acquisitions.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Brixmor Property Group Q1 2024
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