Mr. Cooper Group Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 12, 2025
Skip to Participants
Operator

Good morning. Welcome to Mr. Cooper Group Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

To ask a question during this session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone. You will then hear automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr.

Operator

Cooper Group.

Kenneth Posner
Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning & Investor Relations at Mr Cooper Group

Good morning, and welcome to Mr. Cooper Group's fourth quarter earnings call. My name is Ken Posner, and I'm SVP of Strategic Planning and Investor Relations. With me today are Jay Bray, Chairman and CEO Mike Weinbach, President and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President and CFO. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

Kenneth Posner
Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning & Investor Relations at Mr Cooper Group

You can find the slides on our Investor Relations webpage at investors. Mrcoopergroup dot com. During the call, we may refer to non GAAP measures, which are reconciled to GAAP results in the appendix to the slide deck. Also, we may make forward looking statements, which you should understand could be affected by risk factors that we've identified in our 10 K and other SEC filings. We are not undertaking any commitment to update these statements if conditions change.

Kenneth Posner
Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning & Investor Relations at Mr Cooper Group

I'll now turn the call over to Jay.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Let's start on Slide three with a review of fourth quarter results. I'll summarize. Pretax operating income was $235,000,000 dollars Operating ROTCE was 15.8% Tangible book value grew 12% year over year to $71.61 per share and our capital ratio was 24.4% and liquidity was 3,400,000,000 I'm exceptionally pleased with these results.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

These numbers demonstrate consistent predictable performance and what's especially notable is we delivered these results by closing on the acquisition of Flagstar's mortgage banking operations and onboarding 1,100,000 customers. This is by far the largest acquisition in our history and one of the largest customer transfers in the history of the mortgage Drilling down into the segments, servicing generated $318,000,000 in pretax income, up 39% year over year. Given the low level of prepayments, we project strong cash flows from our portfolio continuing throughout 2025 and long thereafter. Originations remain resilient despite the sharp sell off in December generating $47,000,000 in EBT. Funded volumes grew 38% sequentially, significantly outpacing the market, reflecting very strong execution in the correspondent channel.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Thanks to the hard work of our correspondent team and the trust of our clients, we have climbed into a top five market share position. As I mentioned on our last call, our cost structure and retention make us the best buyer of MSRs in all channels. I'd like to comment on some other positives in the quarter. We proudly won the Sharp Gold Award, which is Freddie Mac's highest recognition for servicers. This award reflects our commitment to quality, risk management and performance.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Additionally, we helped several of our sub servicing partners achieve gold level recognition through the strong performance we delivered on their portfolios. Our master servicing business received an upgrade from Fitch to a one minus rating, which is a huge third party endorsement. Master servicing is a business which oversees the performance of other mortgage servicers on behalf of securitization and whole loan investors. By providing high-tech solutions and exceptional personal service, our team has earned and sustained the number two position in the market. I'll add that master servicing generates valuable fee income.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Mike will share some comments on how fee income is becoming a meaningful part of our revenue story. Finally, we were pleased to see Moody's place our corporate rating on positive outlook. They commented on the growing strength and scale of our franchise, our strong return on assets and solid liquidity, and they cited our hedge program as a credit positive. Fourth quarter capped an amazing year for Mr. Cooper.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

And if you'll turn to Slide four, you'll see that 2024 was the culmination of a three year journey. As we all remember, 2022 ended with one of the most severe interest rate shots on record with the Fed tightening by four twenty five basis points and mortgage rates more than doubling. This shot created significant turmoil in the industry. We responded with swift and decisive action to reorient our platforms, and our nimble execution put us in position to anticipate new opportunities. If you go back to our fourth quarter twenty twenty two investor presentation, you'll see a slide entitled Expecting Cycle wide Opportunities for MSR Acquisitions, with a chart projecting a steep increase in MSR sales peaking in 2024.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

On the call, we explained how originators had bulked up on MSRs and were now facing a serious margin squeeze. And we point into strategic divestitures and the ongoing exit of banks as contributing to a supplydemand imbalance. That was a good call and the results speak for themselves. Over the last two years, we've acquired $440,000,000,000 of MSRs at cycle wide OAS spreads, including the HomePoint and Flagstar transactions and many other pools. Today, our portfolio stands at 1,500,000,000,000 representing the loans of over 6,000,000 customers, making us the largest servicer in The U.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

S. By a significant margin. In fact, we are more than 50% larger than number two. We also took over the lead in sub servicing. Our sizable scale and technology advantage has allowed us to generate positive operating leverage and rising returns on tangible equity.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

What those results don't show you, however, is the momentum we're now experiencing, the talent and enthusiasm of our people, the promise of our technology and the depth of our competitive moat. Now turning to Slide five, let me wrap up with some high level thoughts on the outlook. Given our momentum, we're increasing our ROTCE guidance range to 16% to 20% for 2526%, which is higher than our previous guidance of 14% to 18. Although we are not immune to macro shifts, we have built a balanced model that is resilient in the face of interest rate volatility and we're also well positioned to manage through a more adverse cycle. Let's talk about what's driving our confidence in the outlook.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Investing in our culture is a huge focus for us. Mr. Cooper has been certified as a great place to work for six years in a row, and we see the tangible results of our high trust culture and record low turnover. A couple of weeks ago, we held a two day off-site for the company's senior leaders, and the energy was incredible. In recent years, we've made tremendous progress improving the customer experience.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

But today, new technology is creating a whole new frontier of opportunities to delight and add value. We're exploring several new value propositions for our customers, some of which we plan to implement this year. AI is changing the world, and it may well be that one of the best applications for large language models is in the call center environment. Mike will update you on our AgentIQ rollout, which is generating rave reviews from our team members. And I'll just add that with our Sageit relationship, we are light years ahead of peers on the journey to the cloud and true real time anytime processing.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

To summarize our strategic direction over the next two years, I'd remind you of the key drivers, which you've seen us deliver on consistently. First, we will stay laser focused on unit costs, leveraging our lead in technology. Second, we'll keep investing in our origination platforms, both DTC and correspondent, to generate higher volumes and gain market share. Third, we'll grow fee revenues by winning new clients for subservicing, master servicing and our other services businesses and by winning larger share of wallet. And finally, we'll continue to analyze the market for acquisitions in a thoughtful and disciplined manner looking for opportunities to create value.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our President, Mike Weinbach to take you through our operating results.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by reviewing the Servicing segment on Slide six. We reported pretax income of $318,000,000 which is up 39% year over year, reflecting a favorable environment with low prepayment speeds and strong credit as well as the rapid growth in our portfolio and the operating leverage that resulted. Turning to the portfolio, the Flagstar acquisition drove a substantial increase in scale. On the owned side, we acquired $59,000,000,000 in UPB, which is net of $18,000,000,000 we sold to subservicing clients with whom we have strategic relationships.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

With these sales, we were able to keep the incremental scale benefits by retaining the sub servicing while providing a unique value added opportunity to our clients. Our ability to arrange these kinds of transactions is a distinct competitive advantage, as is the quality of our platform as reflected in the Freddie Sharp gold recognition for us and our clients that Jay mentioned. In terms of the outlook, we're excited about the growth opportunities we're seeing in 2025. Market yields for MSRs have returned to normal levels and there's plenty of competition, but we continue to see growth opportunities in correspondent and co issue within our return targets. Also, we've started the new year with a small pipeline in bulk, which is now growing a little.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

And if originator profit margins remain under pressure, we'd expect to see rising activity levels throughout the year. In terms of sub servicing, the last year has been transformative. We've doubled in size, become the market leader in terms of share, and it has become the majority of our servicing book. There are a lot of factors contributing to our growth. Of course, the Flagstar transaction was a significant driver and you can see this added $275,000,000,000 of UPV in the fourth quarter.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

This will decline slightly in Q1 when all of the Flagstar transfers are completed as the transaction contemplated some of the loans moving to other servicers. Another driver of growth is new clients, and we were pleased to welcome new partners in 2024 and are in talks to add additional partners in 2025. But what we're most proud of is the organic growth in this business. Simply put, our clients are winning. By leveraging our best in class servicing platform, they can focus on what they do best.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

And whether that's asset management, retail originations or banking, they're growing faster than the industry overall, which is driving our joint growth. Turning to earnings, at current mortgage rates, the outlook is very strong through 2025 and well beyond as we continue to drive operating leverage in this business. For first quarter, we'd guide you to a range of $315,000,000 to $335,000,000 of EBT. If you'll turn to Slide seven, I'd like to give you an update on AgentIQ, which you'll recall we talked about last quarter. AgentIQ is what's called an agentic framework application that's designed to assist our call center team members by analyzing conversations in real time.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

AgentIQ helps detect customer intent and sentiment trends, providing insights to support agents in delivering better service. We've trained the model on millions of customer calls, and this allows it to fetch relevant information and put it at the agents' fingertips, including suggestions for next steps, and of course, it generates a transcript and call summary, all of which is in compliance with applicable privacy laws and our responsible AI policy. We piloted AgentIQ in the fourth quarter, and today it's fully rolled out in the servicing call center, where it's now analyzing 400,000 calls per month, and we're getting very enthusiastic reviews from our team members, including both newer agents and veterans. Our customers benefit from improved experience with quick, clear answers to their questions and a higher percentage of questions resolved on the first call. AgentIQ is also a powerful tool for management.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

For example, we now get automated summaries of topical issues in the call center and we can drill down into specific issues with the click of a mouse all the way down to individual calls. This improves our compliance and quality control functions, where we can now get automated summaries on individual customer engagement and cast a wider net with much higher sampling rates. Most important, this tool will accelerate our ongoing mission to identify customer priorities and develop better processes to assist them. And this may surprise you, but from the conceptualization of this tool to the full deployment took less than a year. We have a very robust tech stack, excellent data standards and a supremely talented team of technologists.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

We plan to roll out AgentIQ to our originations team members a little later this year as soon as we complete a telephony upgrade. So now let's move on to Slide eight and talk about originations, where we generated $47,000,000 in EBT consistent with the rise in mortgage rates during the quarter. I'd echo Jay that the highlight this quarter was continued incredible execution by our correspondent team, who generated a 48% sequential increase in production following a very big third quarter. Thanks to their efforts, Mr. Cooper is now a top five correspondent lender, which marks a significant improvement in share from a year ago when we weren't even in the top 10.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

As our efforts to reduce servicing costs improved our bids, we shifted energy to a series of enhancements to our platform. These included upgrading our pricing models, building out a new client portal, revamping our capital market strategies and relentlessly reviewing our relationship with every existing client and prospect. The Flagstar acquisition also expanded our network of customers, particularly with banks and credit unions. The results speak for themselves, and I'll add that we're happy with our margins as well. Turning to Slide nine, let's focus on DTC, where volumes were up 16% quarter over quarter as we funded loans locked during the brief rally in third quarter.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Just to put this in context of customer benefits, during the quarter, we helped nearly 2,000 customers lower their monthly payments, over 8,500 access equity in their homes and over 1,400 purchased new homes. As a company, we feel great about delivering that kind of value to our customers. Now, you'll notice we had an atypical move in our refinance recapture rate, which dropped to 35%. And what's driving this is the impact of a single large portfolio with an unusual profile that we acquired last year. Specifically, it was an at the money deal, and we knew the originators would solicit their customers aggressively.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

We priced the deal for limited recapture and we included contractual safeguards to protect us against early payouts. While this didn't result in a material impact to our MSR value, it did impact the recapture ratio. Excluding this portfolio, our refi recapture would have been 53%, which is consistent with what we would expect given the heavier volumes of rate and term refinances in the quarter. Looking ahead, given the current level of mortgage rates, we'd guide you to $3,050,000,000 dollars in first quarter EBT and potential upside later in the year, driven by the growth in our servicing portfolio combined with our focus on enhancing the customer experience. For some perspective, 20% of our customers have note rates of 6% or higher, which means we're well positioned to capitalize on rallies even if they're brief just as you saw in the third quarter.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Home equity is another growth driver and here the numbers are pretty interesting. 94% of our customers have at least 20% equity and our average customer has nearly 50%. This equates in theory to $675,000,000,000 in equity, which our customers could access should they want or need to monetize this value. Even in a higher for longer scenario, cash out refinances and home equity loans should be a steady recurring source of business for us and value for our customers. The last thing I'd like to cover is to share a little more information about the composition of our revenues related to Jay's comments about the growing importance of fee income coming from sub servicing, master servicing and other client related businesses.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

If you'll turn to slide 10, you can see the percentage contribution of owned servicing, originations and fee income to our total revenue. Fee income is generated by a number of businesses, the biggest of which is our market leading subservicing platform, but other client service related businesses contribute fees as well, including master servicing, special servicing, partnership and technology solutions and Xome. For 2024 in total, these service related fee revenues totaled $500,000,000 which made up more than 20% of our total revenue, and this revenue stream has been growing at a double digit pace for the last three years. Importantly, these businesses do not require any material capital or liquidity contributing to our growing return on tangible common equity. With that, I'll hand it over to Kurt.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Thanks, Mike, and good morning.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

I'll start on Slide

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

11 with a brief recap of our financials. To summarize, net income was $2.00 $4,000,000 which included a positive $92,000,000 mark net of hedge, $235,000,000 in pre tax operating earnings and adjustments of $39,000,000 Let me unpack those adjustments. First, there's a $22,000,000 charge for facility shutdown costs. Given our HomeCentric model, we've significantly reduced our need for office space in the Dallas area and we were able to negotiate very favorable terms to exit two large leases, which should provide us with meaningful savings going forward and funds to invest in renovating our headquarters, which will contribute to a more vibrant experience when we come together to collaborate and celebrate. Second, we accrued $18,000,000 in connection with a court ruling and a lawsuit associated with the legacy business.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Third, there was a positive $9,000,000 reserve release related to the Homepoint acquisition. Then there were a few smaller miscellaneous charges. In terms of the overall operating results, Mike covered originations and servicing and I would draw your attention to the corporate segment, which which incurred $51,000,000 in expenses. Included in this number are some year end incentive accruals, stock vesting and a small technology write off and Zone was a slightly larger drag this quarter. For the first quarter, we anticipate corporate expenses remaining at this level due to the timing of annual stock compensation before settling down to a more normalized run rate of $40,000,000 to $45,000,000 in the second quarter.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Turning to the mark to market line, we marked up the MSR to reflect rising interest rates and expectations for lower CPRs, leading to a quarter end valuation of 159 basis points of UPB or 5.5 multiple of the base servicing strip. Offsetting this gain were $581,000,000 in hedge losses, which equates to 85 percent coverage somewhat above our 75% target. We're extremely pleased with the hedges performance, which over the last seven quarters has tracked the target fairly closely and contributed to stable and predictable results. Now if you'll turn to Slide 12, I'll comment briefly on credit. Our high quality mortgage portfolio continued to perform extremely well with MSR delinquencies up slightly by 11 basis points to 1.2%, a level that remains quite strong compared to peer and industry metrics.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Low delinquencies reflect our thoughtful portfolio construction, which you can see in the rising FICO scores and declining LTV ratios for our customers, as well as our ongoing loss mitigation efforts evident in a 47% year over year increase in loan modifications and workouts, which is a very important part of our mission to keep the dream of homeownership alive. We keep a close eye on Ginnie Mae delinquency trends and we've noticed a small, but consistent deterioration in industry wide performance across all product types and vintages, which is especially notable for loans which have already gone through modifications. You can see this trend in our Ginnie Mae delinquencies too, but I would note that this portfolio has grown by less than 4% in the past year and today represents only 19% of our total loan portfolio and thus is not a material exposure. Now turning to Slide 13, let me update you on our key balance sheet metrics. We ended the fourth quarter with liquidity of $3,400,000,000 which is down from the $4,100,000,000 in the third quarter as we utilized MSR lines to fund the acquisition of $1,300,000,000 in assets from Flagstar, which principally consisted of mortgage servicing rights.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Liquidity consisted of $753,000,000 in unrestricted cash with the remaining in MSR line capacity, which is fully collateralized and immediately available. Our capital ratio is measured by tangible net worth to assets ended the fourth quarter at 24.4%, down from 27.9, reflecting the increase in both MSR assets and higher loans held for sale due to strong correspondent growth. We are now operating comfortably within our target range to the level that we believe is appropriate for the current environment and mix of assets on our balance sheet. On a final note, I'll comment that the 1620% ROTCE range that Jay mentioned earlier is not reliant on expanding leverage or decreasing our robust liquidity. Thanks for listening to our report.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

And I'll now turn the call back to Ken for Q and A.

Kenneth Posner
Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning & Investor Relations at Mr Cooper Group

Thanks, Kirk. And Marvin, could you now start the Q and A process?

Operator

Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Terry Ma of Barclays. Your line is now open.

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Hey, thank you. Good morning. Maybe just starting with the revised ROE target range, you touched on it a little bit. But can you maybe just talk about the drivers that could get you to 20%? How much of the high end is actually kind of rate dependent or can you kind of hit that target even if you were to stay in this rate environment?

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Hi, Terry, it's Kirk. Good morning. Thanks for the question. I think we've touched on that a couple of times before and I think Mike can go into it a little bit. But the services segment that we called out this quarter generates obviously fee based income, which can generate a higher ROTCE again given that it's asset light in nature and equity light in nature.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

That when we've said originations as you saw in Q3, if we have a better originations environment, that's essentially fee based income as well. And so that could drive us to the higher end of the ROTCE. But the higher for a longer environment worked well for us and we think we're going to be within that range regardless of what the rate environment looks like.

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Yes.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Go ahead.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

I would just say I would add operating leverage to that. I mean, if you think about the power of the organization, we added $440,000,000,000 of servicing in the last couple of years and I think added less than 20 people. So just wrap your head around that.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

It's pretty incredible. It's a great job by Jay Jones and his team. And candidly, we think we're in the middle innings of that. We think there's tremendous leverage, tremendous cost and a better customer experience and we're focused on that every day. So I think that's going to be a key driver as well.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

The last thing I'll just add is, it's execution, it's not interest rates. So we feel really good about the balanced business model we can deliver

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

on

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

the return targets regardless of what's happening in terms of the interest rate environment. And we have a lot of momentum in just about every part of our business. So we've seen significant growth in our B2B origination as we talked about the huge increase in correspondent, seeing growth in our direct to consumer business and we highlighted the home equity opportunity, which we think is quite significant. And as Jay mentioned, we continue to execute on servicing and there's validation whether it's the Freddie Sharp Awards where we were super proud not just to win gold in the large servicer category, but to see clients for whom we sub service win gold in the medium and smaller servicer categories. So a clean sweep of the gold.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

And so we're going to continue to focus on execution, keep the momentum. And if we do it well, we could be in the higher end of the range. And that's what we're working hard to do every day.

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up on the services fee revenue. I'm just curious, can you kind of sustain that double digit growth for that revenue stream going forward? And then maybe just longer term, what's the steady state mix of services revenue that you're kind of targeting? If there is a target, I mean, that's a higher multiple earnings stream in my view.

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

So I would imagine you would want to maximize that somewhat? Thank you.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. I mean, I think what we're most proud of with our fee based revenue that we showed and we do often refer to it as services is it's essentially taking all of the things that we're really good at and making it available to the rest of the industry. And we showed it to you as a percentage of overall revenue and you asked about that, but as we've talked about, there's some volatility in other parts of our revenue stream. You can see how big originations was in 2021 and 2022 and how much that changed over 2023 and 2024. But the services revenue stream is quite steady and shouldn't have that level of volatility.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

So we think there's enormous opportunity to do more for the clients that we already work with and there's a number of new clients that we're in discussions with to continue to grow that business. So I guess a long way of saying, yes, we do think we can sustain the growth in that business and see a lot of opportunity with it. And we agree with you, it's these businesses and other companies tend to attract a higher multiple than the high single digit multiple forward earnings that we have today.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Mark DeVries of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Mark Devries
Mark Devries
Director at Deutsche Bank

Yes, thanks. Could you just talk about the pipeline for bulk MSR and whole platform sales here? I mean, it seems like while you're now within the range on your tangible net worth assets, you still have a lot of capital flexibility. So just want to get a sense of how you're sizing up the opportunity set there and also as well kind of what the returns look like? Are they still kind of accretive to that 16% to 20% range kind of targeted for the next two years?

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. I think the bulk market as Kurt mentioned is coming back and certainly at attractive levels. And if you think about if we're in a higher for longer environment, I think that will certainly help the market because you're going to see more originators that are going to need to sell. So we think that's going to grow throughout the year and we are starting to see certainly more activity there. And I think from an acquisition standpoint, in my view, I still fundamentally believe there's going to be consolidation in our industry.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

And you've seen us be very selective and very disciplined in looking at those opportunities. But I'm pretty bullish that there's going to be opportunities that are going to be attractive. And so I think again consolidation will continue and we will be a part of it.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

And in terms of the returns, I mean, I think we're still seeing, they may not be the cycle best returns that we saw a couple of years ago, but there's still solid risk adjusted returns. Our hedging has held up really well. And so we do think into that 16% to 20% range as we're acquiring and we've always said we're not going to chase yields, we'll be very disciplined about our purchases and we continue to be that way.

Mark Devries
Mark Devries
Director at Deutsche Bank

Okay, great. As you point out in the presentation, your special servicing business and digital real estate auction marketplace give you kind of a nice countercyclical revenue stream. Are you still thinking about potentially monetizing Xome if the revenue picture improves or do you just kind of like it now as that kind of countercyclical hedge?

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

No, I think we look Zome has done a great job at the end of the year. We've made investments there. We've increased our market share. As the market turns to your point, it is going to be a very valuable asset. I think ultimately we do think some sort of monetization makes sense for all or part of it, just to be able to capture all of our business as we've discussed etcetera, etcetera.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

So I don't think strategically our thoughts have shifted around them. We like the business. We're going to be patient. We'll get the right value for it. But at some point, we will extract some value there.

Mark Devries
Mark Devries
Director at Deutsche Bank

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Crispin Love of Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Crispin Love
Crispin Love
Director at Piper Sandler Companies

Thank you and good morning everyone. First on servicing expenses, you continue to drive efficiencies and improvements there. Expenses were at 5.3 bps of the servicing portfolio. As you look forward, do you believe that you can continue to drive that 5.3 bps lower through scale, tech, AI and other areas? Or is there a period where you expect that to flat over time?

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

No. Look, I think as I said and Mike please jump in. But I think as I said earlier, we really believe we're in the middle innings of what's possible there. I mean, if you look at our 2526 investments, they are AI centric, they are process centric where we're going to continue to be able to drive cost out and slash allow us to grow and continue to grow in a very scalable way. So we think there's a lot of opportunity there and we're making investments as we speak.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. And I'll just add the level of investments that we're making in technology is increasing. And we feel more comfortable investing more because the team has executed so well. And so all of the things you mentioned, scale, continued investment, just relentlessly waking up every day, thinking about how we can do things better for our customers, how we can let customers do things for themselves that they want, how we can make our team members who serve our customers more effective. It's all of those little things that are adding up to the improvements we're seeing and we're bullish on the opportunities ahead of us.

Crispin Love
Crispin Love
Director at Piper Sandler Companies

Great. Thank you. I appreciate that. And then following up on the new ROTCE guide, last quarter you said you were very comfortable at the midpoint of the prior guide, which would have been about 16%. Would you say you're comfortable on hitting the midpoint of the new guide for 2025 or should it be upward sloping over the next two years and of course being rate dependent?

Crispin Love
Crispin Love
Director at Piper Sandler Companies

And just curious on what you view as some of the major changes from three months ago to today just driving that guide? Thank you.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. It's a great question. So I mean, I think we've said that we're 16% to 20% for the two years. That doesn't mean that every quarter is going to be at the midpoint or above or potentially even at the low point. But we're comfortable in the 16% to 20%.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

I think what you're seeing is we're adding that incremental business from a services perspective. We're driving that incremental scale from an operations efficiency perspective and we're just going to continue to work on that day after day after day. It's what we've done, it's what we're good at. And I think you'll see that ROTCE sort of climb over the course of the two years

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

as a result of all of that.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harter of UBS. Your line is now open.

Douglas Harter
Douglas Harter
Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Thanks. Can you talk about your capacity in the origination business and the ability to kind of maintain recapture rates if and when we see the next refi opportunity?

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. As we've talked about in through most of 2024, we kept a little bit of a buffer capacity to be able to handle expected dips in rates. And we saw in September when rates dropped, we were in position to be able to capitalize on it and saw a nice increase in our rate term refi originations and our earnings. And as rates have risen and the rate term opportunity has become much smaller, we again have excess capacity and we're working hard to fill it. The big opportunity that we see and we saw it in the quarter and we're already seeing it in the early part of the first quarter is with home equity.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

The majority of our portfolio, our customers still have rates below 4%. And as home values have increased, the amount of equity in their home has grown with it. So for customers that are carrying credit card debt, they want to do home renovations, they want to consolidate other debt, home equity represents a great opportunity. And we've grown this is a product that we launched two years ago and it's grown steadily since launch. But if we look at where we are, we're still the majority of our customers are getting home equity loans are still getting them away from us.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

So we see enormous opportunity to help our customers and we're making investments and enhancements in these products every day. And it's becoming an increasing share of what we're doing and we feel confident that we'll be able to fill the capacity with new products that meet our customers' needs. And we like the idea of continuing to keep a buffer through this year because rates will be volatile and we want to be ready to capture the opportunities when they come.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

The only thing I would say Doug to that is like and we haven't talked as much about the investments that we've made in the origination platform as we have in servicing. But over the last few years, we've made significant investments in the origination business, effectively componentizing almost every aspect of the origination process. So our ability to scale today is night and day compared to where it was two years ago. And the team has done a good job there, but we can scale up pretty quickly now with the investments we've made and we continue to make those in this year and next. So we're only going to become more efficient and more scalable there.

Douglas Harter
Douglas Harter
Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bose George of KBW. Your line is now open.

Bose George
Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Hey guys, good morning. The correspondent market share obviously is up meaningfully. Do you see room for share to increase further from here? Is this kind of a good run rate? Also should we think about one more month of Flagstar production since that deal closed in the October?

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Yes, I think good morning, Buzz. I think on the correspondent, absolutely you should expect us to continue to grow that and grow share. I mean, it's really not super complicated, right? At the end of the day, we're going to continue to focus like we said on our scale and our cost leadership. So we're driving costs down, continue to focus on retention and we're ultimately we think the best buyer of MSRs.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

And so with the power of the platform now and the scale of the platform, we think there's going to be a lot of opportunity to continue to grow correspondent at very attractive returns. And you can comment on Flagstar, go ahead.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

But Flagstar is pretty simple, which is yes, we closed October 31. So we had two months in Q4, we'll have three months in Q1. So pretty simple answer

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

I think to that Buzz. Thanks.

Bose George
Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Okay, great. Thanks. And then it looks like you recently sold the Flagstar's TPO business. Is that did that not fit into what you guys want to do on the origination side?

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Yes, we look and Mike you can jump in, but we look at that, took a hard look at it and thought about it strategically. But yes, ultimately made a decision with that. The broker channel was not something that we wanted to move forward with.

Bose George
Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Yes.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Having said that, we were very, very intentional about finding a great partner and finding a home for the team members.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

And so that was a real commitment that we made to the Flagstar team members and Mr. Cooper team did a great job on that. And we feel like A and D is a great home for them and good things will happen there, but that's how we thought about it strategically.

Bose George
Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for next question. And our next question comes from the line of Derek Summers of Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Derek Sommers
Equity Research Senior Associate at Jefferies LLC

Hi, good morning, everyone. I know you guys don't disclose margins by channel, but just given the kind of channel mix shift, could you provide some directional color on how those trended and kind of how we should think about that in the near term?

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Yes, Derek, I'll take it. Look, realistically from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, the margins didn't really change materially. They but channel by channel, they were about consistent and they've been consistent even in the drop in rates at the end of Q3, we didn't see a real increase in margin. So we've seen pretty consistent margins hold and that's by product and by channel all the way through.

Derek Sommers
Equity Research Senior Associate at Jefferies LLC

Got it. Thank you. And I know historically you guys have targeted a fiftyfifty mix of sub servicing and owned MSR, but kind of given where the portfolio sits and your earlier comments about increasing wallet share among sub servicing clients, should we kind of think about that target changing a bit?

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. I mean, you see the shift where we're now larger in sub servicing than we are in owned servicing. And as I mentioned in some of the upfront comments, we're seeing really strong organic growth in that business. So a lot of the big increase that happened was due to Flagstar, but what we feel best about is the clients that use us for sub servicing are benefiting from our superior efficiency, quality, the customer experience and they're seeing their business grow more quickly than the rest of the market. And we're going to be there as their partner to grow with them.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

And so we may see the percentage sub servicing grow a little bit more quickly than owned servicing, which obviously requires capital liquidity use of our balance sheet. But we see opportunities for growth in both parts of the business, frankly.

Derek Sommers
Equity Research Senior Associate at Jefferies LLC

Thank you. That's all for me.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Hain of PTVIG. Your line is now open.

Eric Hagen
Managing Director at BTIG

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. When we think about the inputs and assumptions used for the MSR valuation, can you remind us if there's a recapture estimate, which is factored into the fair market value? And then along those same lines, I mean, I noticed that you guys use an option adjusted spread as one of the key inputs to that valuation. Hopefully without maybe going down a complicated rabbit hole, is there a way to think about this spread in this rate environment?

Eric Hagen
Managing Director at BTIG

Just how sensitive it is to rates or other conditions in the market?

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Hey, Eric, it's Kurt. So I'll try not to take us down the rabbit hole here because I'd love to do it and I won't do it here. But, yes, I mean, we do factor in recapture into our value. But the reality is that recapture, whether it's implicit in or explicit in the model or implied because of the discount rate is in everybody's model because that's the way that the MSRs trade these days. And in terms of option adjusted spread, yes, we moved to that model almost three years ago now.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

And realistically, for a lot of the loans that are poor coupon and lower, the optionality of those loans doesn't factor into it at all. So you're looking at essentially just a straight fixed yield that doesn't vary all that much, whereas on loans that are closer to out of the money, you see the option adjusted spread kind of widen a little bit. And that's the way that we look at the portfolio and that's why we were purchasing a lot of deep discount loans in 2022 and 2023.

Eric Hagen
Managing Director at BTIG

Okay, great. Interesting color. Thank you guys. How do you see any dismantling of resources at the CFPB maybe changing your business, maybe in either direction? Thank you guys.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Look, I think our view is, as you know, consistently we are going to work with regulators. We view them the way they think about goals of helping customers is the same as the way we think about it. So we will obviously be very involved and engaged, but I mean we don't see anything changing imminently with them and we'll kind of navigate that as things unfold.

Eric Hagen
Managing Director at BTIG

Okay. Appreciate you guys. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mikhail Goberman of Citigroup JMP. Your line is now open.

Mikhail Goberman
VP - Equity Research at Citizen JMP

Hey, good morning guys. Thank you. If I could just follow-up on the range that you guys so the guidance that you provided for originations of $30,000,000 to $50,000,000 in the first quarter. I guess thinking, what would need to happen for you guys to sort of hit the upper end of that range? Would it be a continued momentum in the fantastic quarter you guys had in the fourth quarter in the correspondence space?

Mikhail Goberman
VP - Equity Research at Citizen JMP

Would it be an increase in the DTC space? And how do you guys kind of sort of think about the mix between those two? And what would cause you to hit the upper bound in that range? Thank you.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. I mean, the short answer is the biggest driver would be a drop in interest rates. The correspondent business is going to continue to grow. It's relatively low margin, so it makes up a smaller part of the originations earnings, but is a really important part of feeding our servicing business. For our direct to consumer business right now with mortgage rates over 7%, there really isn't any rate term refinance opportunity to speak of.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

We feel good about being able to operate within the guidance range based on the opportunities we have to help our customers take advantage of the equity they have in their homes through cash out refinances and through home equity as well as purchase. So but if there were it happened very quickly in September, if there were a rate drop like that, we'll be standing by ready to help customers take advantage of it and lower their monthly payments. And that should add a lot of value for our customers and for our originations business.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

I will say the quarter, I mean, we are seeing positive results in DTC. And to Mike's point earlier, from a second lien standpoint, we've seen a lot of we've made a lot of progress there and we're growing that business and we think there's a massive opportunity. So I think that those could be some drivers as well to kind of as you think about the range.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. And we've really only been in the second lien product in any material way for about a year and a half. And investors are now getting more and more comfortable with the product that we're delivering because it is all from our customers. So we know the performance and the performance has been excellent. We're getting great execution.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

And I think more and more that's allowing us to give great prices to our customers, which is just going to accelerate that cycle.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

I agree.

Mikhail Goberman
VP - Equity Research at Citizen JMP

Great. Thank you for that color and best of luck going forward.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Thanks, Mark.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Giuliano Bologna of Compass Point. Your line is now open.

Giuliano Bologna
Managing Director at Compass Point Research & Trading LLC

Good morning, Anir. Congratulations on the continued, incredible performance. The first question I have and hopefully is not too complicated, but if I assume you're at the midpoint of the 16% to 20% recall it 18% ROTCE, even if you're buying back a couple hundred million dollars of stock and originations are growing, you'd still be delevering unless you're growing the MSR book somewhere in the teens and probably even as high as the mid teens. So I'm curious when you think about the growth in UPB and the growth of your servicing UPB, should we be thinking about it in terms of like low double digits, mid double digits, could it go higher? I realize that the market is changing.

Giuliano Bologna
Managing Director at Compass Point Research & Trading LLC

There's probably less bulk deals and you're going to be a bit more focused on correspondent. But just trying to think about roughly where you think the growth rate of Efibees would be in the at least in the near to medium term?

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

Hey, Julien, it's Kurt. Thanks for the comment and for the question. I think you're right. I think looking at it and kind of the growth in the low double digits, but as we said earlier, we're not going to be chasing yield. And we know I mean, obviously, our stock has performed really, really well and we're pleased with that, but we're still trading at about an eight times forward PE.

Kurt Johnson
Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group

So we still are going to be active investors in kind of repurchasing stock. And to your point, if we're not seeing great opportunities now, we'll use the opportunity to de lever a little bit, keep some dry powder and be ready for when things improve again. And so while we have that in our plan in terms of kind of low double digit growth, we're going to be opportunistic around it.

Giuliano Bologna
Managing Director at Compass Point Research & Trading LLC

That's very helpful. And then thinking about the origination side, UPV is up 57% this year, and that's obviously the DTC channel is internally focused. So I would assume that you should have still have some pretty strong growth as you kind of integrate the Flagstar portfolio and kind of stabilize the portfolio you've acquired and start working on the recapture opportunities within that book. Is it fair to assume you still grow even regardless of the rate environment over the next few quarters? And that there's I'm curious what would really move the needle in terms of accelerating DTC growth?

Giuliano Bologna
Managing Director at Compass Point Research & Trading LLC

Would you need kind of 50 basis points, 100 basis points? Or is there any kind of level where you'd see a real acceleration in DTC volumes in your opinion?

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

Yes. Hey, Juliana, I mean, the short answer is yes. There's wind at our back as the portfolio continues to grow, so we'd expect growth throughout the year. And it's the opportunities beyond that are very much the things that we talked about, continued execution, the huge opportunity that we see in home equity. We're making investments in the scalability of the business.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

We're continuing to drive our cost leadership there. So we expect our cost to originate to go down over the course of the year. If and when rates do drop and we start to use our capacity, we're now able to add new people and get them ramped up much more quickly than we used to be able to in the past. We're investing in digital self-service tools, so customers can help themselves. We're investing in automation.

Mike Weinbach
President at Mr Cooper Group

So you put the growth in the portfolio with the opportunities we see ahead in this business.

Giuliano Bologna
Managing Director at Compass Point Research & Trading LLC

That's very helpful. I appreciate the questions and I'll jump back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Ken Pulitzer for closing remarks.

Kenneth Posner
Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning & Investor Relations at Mr Cooper Group

Great. Thanks very much for joining us. And if you have follow-up questions, please reach out to the Investor Relations team. We're here to answer them. Thank you.

Jay Bray
Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

Analysts
    • Kenneth Posner
      Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning & Investor Relations at Mr Cooper Group
    • Jay Bray
      Chairman & CEO at Mr Cooper Group
    • Mike Weinbach
      President at Mr Cooper Group
    • Kurt Johnson
      Executive VP & CFO at Mr Cooper Group
    • Terry Ma
      Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
    • Mark Devries
      Director at Deutsche Bank
    • Crispin Love
      Director at Piper Sandler Companies
    • Douglas Harter
      Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group
    • Bose George
      Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)
    • Derek Sommers
      Equity Research Senior Associate at Jefferies LLC
    • Eric Hagen
      Managing Director at BTIG
    • Mikhail Goberman
      VP - Equity Research at Citizen JMP
    • Giuliano Bologna
      Managing Director at Compass Point Research & Trading LLC
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Mr. Cooper Group Q4 2024
00:00 / 00:00

Transcript Sections