Enphase Energy Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Enphase Energy's First Quarter twenty twenty five Financial Results Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Zach Friedman.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Zach Freedman
Zach Freedman
Investor Relations at Enphase Energy

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Envid Energy's first quarter twenty twenty five results. On today's call are Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer Mandy Yang, our Chief Financial Officer and Raghu Balur, our Chief Products Officer. After the market closed today, Enphase issued a press release announcing the results of its first quarter ended 03/31/2025. During this conference call, Enphase management will make forward looking statements, including but not limited to statements related to our expected future financial performance, market trends, the capabilities of our technology and products and the benefits to homeowners and installers our operations, including manufacturing, customer service and supply and demand anticipated growth in existing and new markets the timing of new product introductions and regulatory tax, tariff and supply chain matters. These forward looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties, and our actual results and the timing of events could differ materially from these expectations.

Zach Freedman
Zach Freedman
Investor Relations at Enphase Energy

For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10 ks and 10 Qs filed with the SEC. We caution you not to place any undue reliance on forward looking statements and undertake no duty or obligation to update any forward looking statements as a result of new information, future events or changes in expectations. Also, please note that financial measures used on this call are expressed on a non GAAP basis unless otherwise noted and have been adjusted to exclude certain charges. We have provided a reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release furnished with the SEC on Form eight ks, which can also be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Now I'd like to

Zach Freedman
Zach Freedman
Investor Relations at Enphase Energy

introduce Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Badri?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Good afternoon and thanks for joining us today to discuss our first quarter twenty twenty five financial results. We reported quarterly revenue of $356,100,000 shipped approximately 1,530,000 microinverters and 170.1 megawatt hours of batteries and generated free cash flow of $33,800,000 Our Q1 revenue included approximately $54,000,000 of safe harbor. As we exited Q1, our battery channel inventory was normal, while our microinverter channel inventory was a little elevated.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

For the first quarter, we delivered 49% gross margin, 22% operating expenses and 27% operating income, all as a percentage of revenue on a non GAAP basis and including the net IRE benefit. Mandy will go into our financials later in the call. Our customer service NPS held steady at 77% in Q1 as compared to 78% in Q4. The average call wait time increased slightly to three point five minutes, largely due to the winter storms in The U. S.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We are continuing to invest in AI and machine learning to make our support experience faster, smarter and more helpful. Let's cover operations. Our global capacity is around 7,250,000 microinverters per quarter, 5,000,000 of those are in The U. S. In Q1, we shipped approximately 1,210,000 microinverters from our U.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

S. Contract manufacturers booking 45X production tax credits. Our domestically produced microinverters help residential leasePPA providers and commercial asset owners to qualify for the 10% domestic content ITC adder. We expect to ship approximately 1,000,000 microinverters from The U. S.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

In Q2. Q1 was our second quarter of building the IQ batteries in The U. S. Using domestically manufactured microinverters, battery management systems and packaging, while sourcing cell packs from China. We shipped 44 megawatt hours of batteries from our Texas facility, a strong step forward as we continue scaling U.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

S. Production. Let's cover tariffs. The newly announced 145% tariff on products from China, along with the 10% reciprocal tariffs on imports from other countries is expected to have minimal impact on our microinverters and accessories, thanks

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

to

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

the excellent work our team has done to diversify the supply chain. However, our batteries will be more impacted as we currently source battery cell packs from China. These tariffs are expected to reduce our gross margin by approximately 2% in Q2 of twenty twenty five. The effect of the tariffs is limited in Q2 due to us having pre tariff inventory. Starting in Q3, we anticipate a 6% to 8% total gross margin impact after accounting for pricing adjustments.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We expect the gross margin impact to gradually lessen over the subsequent quarters as our mitigation efforts take effect. We are moving with urgency. We have already identified tangible sourcing options outside China, and we are fast tracking the qualification. These efforts are progressing quickly, and we expect to fully offset the impact starting in Q2 twenty twenty six. As always, tariff policy remains fluid and may evolve with future government decisions.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Let's come to the regions. Our U. S. And international revenue mix for Q1 was 7426%, respectively. In The U.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

S, our revenue decreased 13% in Q1 compared to Q4, primarily due to seasonality and softening in customer demand, partially offset by safe harbor revenue of $54,000,000 The overall sell through of our products was down 18% compared to Q4. In addition to seasonality, installation activity was negatively impacted by one of the large national lease providers facing financial challenges. The U. S. Solar market remains under pressure from high interest rates and many installers, lease providers and distributors are navigating through a tough environment.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

That said, there are some encouraging signs. In California, installers are growing more confident selling MEM three point zero systems supported by strong battery attach rates. At the same time, power prices continue to rise across several key regions. We are staying focused on product innovation, quality and customer experience. Our upcoming fourth generation battery is designed to lower total system costs for backup.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Our complementary offerings like Busbar PCS and NIM expansion software help customers unlock even more value. In Europe, our revenue increased 7% in Q1 due to shipping the FlexPhase battery in Germany as compared to the prior quarter, while our overall sell through declined a little by about 9%. The overall business environment across the region is still challenging, but we are maintaining our discipline on controlling the channel as well as expanding our served available market by introducing a number of new products. I'll provide additional color on our key markets in Europe, The Netherlands, France, Germany and UK. In Netherlands, the demand softened slightly in Q1 in line with typical winter seasonality.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

The market continues to shift from solar only to solar plus battery solutions, which help avoid export penalties and enable participation in retail energy markets. We started shipping our new IQEV charger into the region and recently introduced backup capability for our batteries, further strengthening the value proposition. In France, the market has slowed down following the recent utility rate cuts, and we expect the demand to be muted over the next two quarters. However, a significantly lower VAT is set to begin in October, which should help spark a rebound in solar. France remains a key long term growth market for us, given our leadership position and the country's low solar penetration.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We started shipping our new IQEV charger into France, and we also plan to introduce hot water heater compatibility in the second quarter, allowing homeowners to increase their self consumption. We also added backup capability for our batteries, further strengthening resilience offering. In Germany, we are ramping sales of our new IQ battery 5P with FlexPhase and the new IQEV charger. The typical installations are three phase in Germany, and we are seeing a 30% backup attach for our batteries, a strong indicator of the growing demand for resilience. We are also preparing to launch our balcony solar product imminently in Germany in Q2, which expands our addressable market by approximately 400 megawatts annually.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We believe these product introductions position us well for meaningful growth in both sell in and sell through over the coming quarters. The UK market continues to perform well for us as we strengthen our relationships with the retail energy providers in the region. We already started shipping our newest IQEV charger, and we plan to introduce backup capability in Q3 of this year, further expanding our energy resilience offering. We remain underpenetrated in several European countries, including Italy, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, Poland and others, and we see them as important pillars of our long term growth strategy. Over the coming months, we plan to introduce our full product portfolio across more of Europe, including IQ microinverters, IQ battery flex space with backup, our latest and the greatest EV charger, AI powered energy management software, and the SolarGraph installer platforms.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We continue to make steady progress in other regions. In Puerto Rico, we are seeing a very sharp rise in demand for our higher domestic content battery driven by an increased need for resilience. In India, sales of our IQ 8T microinverters continue to grow and we are also shipping our batteries into the region. Are encouraged by the early signs of strong product market fit in both the urban and rural areas. In Brazil, new fire safety recommendations such as rapid shutdown should support continuous growth of our IQ 8T microinverters.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Now let's turn to our Q2 guidance. We expect Q2 revenue to be in the range of $340,000,000 to $380,000,000 This includes approximately $40,000,000 in safe harbor revenue, which we define as sales made to customers who plan to install the inventory over more than a year. We are currently about 80% booked to the midpoint of our revenue guidance. For IQ Batteries, we expect to ship between one hundred sixty and one hundred eighty megawatt hours during the quarter. Let's talk about new products, starting with IQ Batteries.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Our fourth generation IQ Batteries is all set to ramp up production in this quarter. This system includes the IQ Battery 10C, the IQ Combiner 6C, and the meter collar. The IQ Battery 10C delivers the same 10 kilowatt hour capacity while using 60% lesser wall space, thanks to its fully integrated battery management and power conversion. When paired with the IQ combiner and the collar, the system significantly simplifies backup, eliminating the need to relocate loads, install current transformers, or run high current wiring. For both homeowners and installers, improvement is substantial.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

What once took four boxes on the wall can now be done with just two. We have successfully completed the required meter collar testing with PG and E and four other utility companies. We expect to begin pilots in May. We have now expanded the IQ microinverter family into 58 countries and plan to grow that number further by the year end. In Japan, we expect to begin production shipments this week through a distribution agreement with the Dochu Corporation, one of the country's largest trading companies.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Recently, Tokyo became the first Japanese city to mandate rooftop solar on new home builds. Given the typically small roof areas in Tokyo, system design can be complex, which is exactly where our Enphase IQ eight microinverter shine, offering the flexibility and scalability needed to maximize production and reliability from every rooftop. In Q2, we plan to launch our IQ balcony solar product in Germany and Belgium, with additional countries in Europe and Asia to follow in 2025. The product offers a simple, efficient way for apartment dwellers to harness solar energy from their balcony. Built on our proven AC coupled architecture, the system allows the users to plug in one to four panels directly into a standard wall outlet.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We plan to offer pre wired kits that include IQ microinverters and the balcony gateway, enabling fast setup and seamless monitoring through the Enphase app. In the event of a grid outage, the system also supports sunlight backup via an auxiliary socket located on the IQ BALCONY gateway product. Let's come to our IQ 8P3P commercial microinverter, a product that is steadily gaining traction. We have over six fifty commercial sites live across The U. S, averaging about 35 kilowatts per system, with consistent positive feedback from the field.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

These three phase microinverters now ship from The U. S. With increased domestic content that help qualify for the 10% ITC add up, a meaningful advantage for commercial asset owners. And we expect the momentum to grow with the upcoming IQ nine microinverter, which is purpose built for four eighty volt three phase systems, unlocking even more of the commercial market. Let's talk about IQ nine.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So IQ nine microinverters are powered by cutting edge gallium nitride technology. These microinverters are engineered for the future with support for 18 amperes DC input current, higher AC voltages and three phase configurations. Designed specifically for small commercial systems, IQ nine will support four eighty volts AC, the most common commercial voltage in The U. S. The first models will deliver peak output power of four twenty seven watts and five forty eight watts, making them ideal for pairing with today's most powerful residential and commercial solar panels.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

IQ nine uses GaN based bidirectional switches that allow us to reduce conduction losses and increase our density. While we are currently operating at similar switching frequencies to maintain compatibility with our existing transformer design, gallium nitride or GaN gives us the foundation to enable much higher frequencies and even greater efficiency in future products like IQ 10. Thanks to GaN, IQ nine already delivers efficiencies that meet or exceed prior generations with a sleek compact footprint. We expect to begin internal installations at Enphase facilities soon, ahead of a full production launch in Q4. On the portable power front, we began shipping the IQ PowerPack 1,500 to customers in U.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

S. And Canada. This compact 1.5 kilowatt hour solution brings together our core strengths, Enphase in a box, which is advanced power electronics, battery management and intelligent software into a smart, portable product designed for home backup, travel and emergencies. IQ PowerPack marks our entry into the portable consumer energy market. We see this as a meaningful growth vector and plan to expand the product family in 2025 to address many more use cases and reach many more countries.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Let's dive into EV charging. In late twenty twenty four, we began shipping our next generation IQ EV charger into Europe. We are now active in 14 countries across the region. This is one of our most advanced residential chargers till date, designed to work seamlessly with system or as a high performance standalone system. Smart features like green charging help homeowners maximize solar usage, while intelligent scheduling reduces energy costs during peak hours, delivering both sustainability and savings.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We are excited to expand the availability of the IQ EV charger throughout this year into more European countries as well as into Australia, Brazil, India and The U. S, where we will position it as a premium feature rich offering. With strong early momentum, we expect continuous growth this year and beyond. Our IQ energy management software supports grid services programs, VPPs, in regulated markets like The U. S.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And energy market participation in deregulated markets like Europe and Australia. In The U. S, we are active in 26 programs across key states such as California, Colorado, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Texas. These programs discharge batteries during peak demand, supporting the utilities. As electricity rates become more complex, we believe our AI powered software differentiates us maximizing ROI and reducing the payback period.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Let's cover SolarGraph, our all in one installer platform. We are investing in major enhancements, including a one click express editor for customized proposals, a GenAI powered in app assistant, integration with racking and expanded C and I capabilities, all aimed at making SolarGraph even more intuitive. The platform is now available to residential and commercial installers in The U. S, Canada, Brazil, Germany, Austria, Netherlands and France with plans to expand into additional countries in the coming quarters. SolarGraph continues to evolve as a strategic part of our software ecosystem, helping installers sell faster, design smarter, as well as scale efficiently.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Let me conclude. While the global policy environment remains fluid with tariffs, with interest rates and subsidies constantly evolving, we are moving quickly to realign our supply chain to minimize downside across a range of scenarios. While we cannot control the macroeconomic conditions, we can absolutely control our response. This means doubling down on what we have what has always made Enphase successful, relentless product innovation, world class reliability and exceptional customer service. Looking ahead, our strategy is clear.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We are driving revenue growth through a wave of new products, starting with our fourth generation system, which delivers the lowest installation cost of any Enphase solar plus battery solution to date. In Europe, our SAM is expanding rapidly with the launch of our FlexPhase battery with backup, the IQEEV charger and the upcoming IQ balcony solar kit. We are empowering installers with tools like NEM expansion software to expand legacy systems, busbar PCS software to avoid main panel upgrade, and dynamic tariff optimization software in European markets to help save money for the homeowner. And with our upcoming IQ nine microinverters, we expect to unlock a 10 gigawatt opportunity in commercial solar while driving cost per watt improvement across our residential business as the world faces rising power prices and increasing grid instability and faces becoming leaner, faster and more innovative. We are energized by the future and firmly focused on delivering value for our customers, partners and shareholders.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

With that, I will turn the call over to Mandy for her review of our financials. Mandy?

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

Thanks, Badri, and good afternoon, everyone. I will provide more details related to our first quarter of twenty twenty five financial results, as well as our business outlook for the second quarter of twenty twenty five. We have provided reconciliations of these non GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release posted today, which can also be found in the IR section of our website. Total revenue for Q1 was $356,100,000 We shipped approximately 688.5 megawatt DC or microinverters and 170.1 megawatt hours of IQ batteries in the quarter. Q1 revenue included approximately $54,000,000 of safe harbor revenue.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

In December 2024, we signed a safe harbor sales agreement for a total amount of approximately $95,000,000 to ship in the first half of twenty twenty five. As Badri mentioned, we define safe harbor revenue as any sales made to customers who plan to install the inventory over more than a year. Non GAAP gross margin for Q1 was 48.9% compared to 53.2% in Q4, primarily due to lower bookings of 45X production test credits and product mix. GAAP gross margin was 47.2 for Q1 compared to 51.8% in Q4. Non GAAP gross margin without net IIA benefit for Q1 was 38.3% compared to 39.7% in Q4, primarily due to product mix.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

GAAP and non GAAP gross margin for Q1 included $37,900,000 of net IIA benefit. Non GAAP operating expenses were $79,400,000 for Q1 compared to $83,300,000 for Q4. The decrease was the result of restructuring actions initiated in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. GAAP operating expenses were $136,300,000 for Q1 compared to $143,500,000 for Q4. GAAP operating expenses for Q1 included $50,900,000 of stock based compensation expenses, dollars 2,900,000.0 of amortization for acquired intangible assets and $3,200,000 of restructuring and asset impairment charges.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

On a non GAAP basis, income from operations for Q1 was $94,600,000 compared to $120,400,000 for Q4. On a GAAP basis, income from operations was $31,900,000 for Q1 compared to $54,800,000 for Q4. On a non GAAP basis, net income for Q1 was $89,200,000 compared to $125,900,000 for Q4. This resulted in non GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.68 for Q1 compared to $0.94 for Q4. GAAP net income for Q1 was $29,700,000 compared to $62,200,000 for Q4.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

This resulted in GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.22 for Q1 compared to $0.45 for Q4. We exited Q1 with a total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities balance of $1,530,000,000 compared to $1,720,000,000 at the end of Q4. We paid off the entire principal amount of $102,200,000 for our 2025 convert that came due on March 1. As part of our $1,000,000,000 share repurchase program authorized by our Board of Directors in July 2023, we repurchased 1,594,105 shares of our common stock in Q1 at an average price of $62.71 per share for a total of approximately $100,000,000 We have a remaining $298,700,000 authorized for further share repurchases. In addition, we spent approximately $12,100,000 of withholding shares to cover taxes for employees to start vesting and options in Q1.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

That reduced the diluted shares by 203,358 shares. We expect to continue this anti dilution plan. In Q1, we generated $48,400,000 in cash flow from operations and $33,800,000 in free cash flow, as approximately $17,000,000 of revenue in Q1 was prepaid last quarter. Capital expenditure was $14,600,000 for Q1 compared to $8,100,000 for Q4. Now let's discuss our outlook for the second quarter of twenty twenty five.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

We expect our revenue for Q2 to be within a range of three forty million to $380,000,000 which includes shipments of 160 to 180 megawatt hours of IQ batteries. The Q2 revenue outlook includes approximately $40,000,000 from a safe harbor sales agreement signed in December 2024. We expect GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 42% to 45%, including two percentage points of new tariff impact. We expect non GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 44% to 47% with net IRIA benefit, and 35% to 38% before net IRIA benefit, including two percentage points of new tariff impact. Non GAAP gross margin excludes stock based compensation expense and acquisition related amortization.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

We state the net IIA benefit to be between 30,000,000 and $33,000,000 on estimated shipments of 1,000,000 units of U. S. Microinverters in Q2. We expect our GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $136,000,000 to $140,000,000 including approximately $58,000,000 estimated for staff based compensation expense, acquisition related expenses and amortization, and restructuring and asset impairment charges. We expect our non GAAP operating expenses to be within the range of 78,000,000 to $82,000,000 For the year of 2025, we expect our GAAP tax rate of 21% to 23% and a non GAAP rate of 15% to 17%, including IRA benefits.

Mandy Yang
Mandy Yang
EVP & CFO at Enphase Energy

With that, I will open the line for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch tone phone. And your first question today will come from Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Praneeth Satish
Praneeth Satish
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Thanks. Good evening. Maybe just starting with the Q2 guidance. So it includes two percentage points of gross margin headwind from the tariffs. Sounds like that could go to 6% to 8% in Q3.

Praneeth Satish
Praneeth Satish
Analyst at Wells Fargo

So it would seem as if you're not fully passing through the entire incremental tariff cost to customers. And I guess maybe if you could just talk about what's driving your decision to absorb some of these costs versus passing them through, because I would imagine that many of your competitors are also sourcing battery cells from China. Maybe if

Praneeth Satish
Praneeth Satish
Analyst at Wells Fargo

you could talk through that.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

You're right. Let me give a big picture. First of all, due to these tariffs, and that is 145% tariffs on imports from China and 10% tariff on imports from other countries. So due to that, we are glad that our microinverters and accessories aren't affected much, and that's because our supply chain has done a fantastic job of diversification, global diversification.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So that's the first good news. On batteries, you know, more than 90, and I would venture to say 95 of cells made in the world, they come from China. We are no exception. We use Chinese sources for the cell packs. We have two ways that we produce batteries.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

One is we make batteries overseas, the full system. And the second is we get cell packs into The US, and then we make the entire system, the rest of the system inside The US. As you can see, when we bring it into The US, you have high US cost of manufacturing, but you have your tariff only on the sell back that is coming in, plus any associated raw materials that are coming in from China or the other places. So it therefore turns out for us that whether we make it domestically or whether we make it outside The US, our costs are becoming approximately the same. And the cost impact is significant.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

You know, why did we chose, yes, we are going to pass a portion of it, but we are going to absorb majority of the impact. And why is because, first of all, we think we can recover this effect in a couple of quarters, in two to three quarters. That's what we mentioned. And what are we doing about it? Our job number one is to get cell sources outside China qualified.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

That's the job number one, which we have already identified the sources. We are working in aggressive task force mode, and we expect to qualify these sources early next year. Therefore, that the impact is going to be only for a couple of quarters, you know, two to three quarters, not couple of quarters, two to three quarters, we decided we would pass on a portion to the installers, and we would absorb the majority ourselves. Now, I said six percent to 8% is the total impact in Q3. First of all, we aren't going to be that much impacted beyond 2% in Q2 because we have pre tariff inventory.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Then from Q3 onwards, that basically goes away. And we essentially are going to have an impact of about 6% to 8% as a result of all of these actions. We expect that impact, the gross margin impact, to continuously improve as we go from Q3 to Q4 to Q1, and the impact to become zero in Q2.

Praneeth Satish
Praneeth Satish
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Got it. That's very helpful. And then just right or wrong, there seems to be a bit of paralysis on the customer side as we wait for clarity around IRA. For the Q2 guide, are you accounting for any worsening of demand trends in Q2 as we wait for clarity or making any adjustments for Nova exposure in the guide? And then maybe on the flip side, do you think that sell through could accelerate in the second half once we get IRA clarity?

Praneeth Satish
Praneeth Satish
Analyst at Wells Fargo

I guess, what are you hearing from your dealers on any pent up demand? Thank you.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah, you know, I said a few things. I said my bookings right now is about 80%, so the guidance that we gave, we have accommodated that bookings in place, which is actually healthy. So that's the first thing. Yes, the lack of certainty is definitely a factor. Know, one of the large national lease providers, as you mentioned, in financial trouble is another factor.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

What that financial trouble causes is basically our installers have difficulty in managing their cash flow. When our installers have difficulty in managing the cash flow, the originations suffered in Q1. Because the originations suffered, we did not see enough pull through from the distributors to the installers, because as you must imagine, life must be pretty tough for them in terms of cash flow, the good news is there are a lot of lease financiers now, today, compared to what they were two years ago. So it is a matter of time where those installers pick up the alternate financiers and, you know, hopefully restart the business again. However, that basically created a gap in Q1, and that's what we talked about our sell through was a little lower than normal.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Having said that, we are entering the best seasonal part of the year. Q2 normally is the best in terms of seasonality. Q1 to Q2 is what I'm talking about. And for Enphase specifically, what we have going for us, we expect to ramp our fourth generation batteries in Q2. We expect to ship meaningful volumes in production this quarter, and we basically, we expect that our cost for our backup installations will be equivalently as good as, you know, almost as good as grid type.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

You know, we have done a great job in gaining market share till now on our batteries, supporting grid tied installations with our third generation. This presents a huge opportunity for us to capture the backup market as well with a solution that is low cost. Earlier, we used to have a lot more components in our third generation system for backup. Now those will get significantly lesser because of two things. One is we have the collar.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

The second is we have a 10 kilowatt hour battery now instead of a five kilowatt hour battery. So specifically to Enphase, we are well positioned to capitalize on the battery market. We also, you know, the clarity in terms of the policy will definitely give us a boost in the latter half.

Praneeth Satish
Praneeth Satish
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Thank you.

Operator

And your next question today will come from Phil Shen with Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Philip Shen
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC

Hi, Thanks for taking my questions. You talked earlier, Badri, about the margin trajectory as we get through even the first part of next year. Can we talk about what the revenue cadence might look like? So for is $375,000,000 on the table? Would you expect Q4 to be up quarter over quarter or down?

Philip Shen
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC

And if you feel like you can share even Q1 of next year, that would be fantastic. Thanks.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Right. Phil, you know that we normally don't guide for Q3 or Q4, but we have a few vectors going for us. I just talked about the fourth generation system. We believe that's a huge factor for Enphase. Then we, you know, specifically regarding The U.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

S, we have the IQ nine that is going to be turning on in Q4. Then coming to Europe, all of the new products, we have introduced a large array of new products, we are already seeing some good traction, namely the flex phase battery, which provides three phase backup for many countries in Europe, the balcony solar, which basically we are about to introduce it this quarter, so it's no longer something out there, it's going to ramp in this quarter. Balcony Solar is going to address, you know, for example, the time in Germany alone is 400 megawatts, and after Germany, we are going to go to Belgium and many other European countries. After that, we will go to Japan and India as well. So we expect that new product to also be introduced in Q2, and the next one is our IQ EV charger, the latest EV charger.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We did a good job ramping up so that we can service all 14 countries in Q1, and now we've got to grow from strength to strength there in terms of installer partnerships and EV charger partnerships in general through other companies there. So while the policy situation, etcetera, is uncertain, Enphase is trying to control our destiny by introducing new products, by having discipline, and these are the new product vectors that we are relying on for growth.

Philip Shen
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC

Okay, thanks, Roger. Back to margins for a bit here, You talked about, I think, the down six to eight percent six percent to 8% impact on Q3 margins. I think you mentioned that was the net impact. Can you share what the gross impact is on tariffs on Q3?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Well, no, I don't have the gross impact. All we are saying is we are passing a small amount of percentage increase to the customers. We are taking a number of other actions to, like, for example, we do have some work that we can do on the raw materials for the batteries, moving them out of China. So all of that work is going to happen. Those are what I call as improvements.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And a lot of vectors, there are thousand little things we are going to do in order to continuously improve our gross margin impact.

Operator

Your next question today will come from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Brian Lee
Brian Lee
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess first question would just be, it sounds like you're passing through a little bit of the price on the tariff impact on batteries in the back half of the year. So you've been doing pretty well, 170 megawatt hours of shipments quarter here to start the year. You've never had that kind of strength in the first half, second half usually better.

Brian Lee
Brian Lee
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

But given tariff impact uncertainty and maybe a little bit of price you're having to pass through, like what's the view on shipment volumes for battery storage in 3Q and 4Q? Can you continue to grow into the second half? I guess that's also in the context of a new battery ramping. So just wondering kind of what's the volume view on top of what's happening with respect to cost and margins?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yes, I mean, this is a great battery. You know, first of all, our third generation system was five kilowatt hours, fourth generation system is 10 kilowatt hours. We had separate battery management, separate power conversion in the third generation system. We have combined it, and it's got deep level of integration, combination of power conversion as well as battery manage, resulting in cost decline. And then we are talking about the balance of systems.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

In the balance of systems, you know, we have eliminated what was called the system controller in the third generation, and now we have eliminated that box, replacing it with a small meter collar, which is trivial to install. So bottom line, what I'm trying to tell you, Brian, is that the system cost for the in phase install with backup is going to be significantly reduced. And yes, the battery itself might go up a little bit in pricing, but the overall system cost reduction is quite good and quite tremendous. So we expect to continuously grow on batteries. We also expect to grow on batteries in Europe.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

For the first time, we have had three phase backup, a full three phase backup. And that was not available so far. I told you about Germany. You know, Germany, the battery attaches 80%, ninety %. But of that battery attach, how many have backup?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

30% have backup. We are able to serve those 30% now, and we are extending that to everywhere in Europe. We expect our batteries to significantly improve. That is why we are taking very swift efforts to realign the supply chain to have non China cells in our source of supply.

Brian Lee
Brian Lee
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

That's super helpful. Maybe just a follow-up on that then for you, Badri. So I think pre tariff, you guys were talking about doing something in the close to 35% gross margin on battery storage. If you kind of back out the six to eight percentage point tariff impact in the back half here, it implies battery storage margins are going to be zero or negative, definitely negative in The U. S.

Brian Lee
Brian Lee
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

So to get to back to kind of that 35% level, which I think you're inferring by Q2 of twenty twenty six, like how gradual is that? Or is that all just going to happen in like a quarter or two as you basically switch to non China suppliers, it sounds like over Q1 or Q2? Or is it all going to just happen in Q2? A little bit more color on the cadence, please. Thanks.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yes. So basically, I told you about the impact in Q2 being small, which is clear. So the remaining quarters left you know, I also told you sorry. Q two twenty six, I told you the impact is zero. So we are talking about three quarters, basically.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And in these three quarters, the efforts we are going to be engaging are two two things. One is we are going to move the cells, the source of cells, to, you know, outside China, and multiple sources. That's what we are already working on. Then the second is any raw materials used in the batteries, which we use. A lot of raw materials that are sourced from China, those also we need to move away to low tariff countries.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And as you imagine, that the latter activity is a continuous activity, And the cell activity can turn on quickly, but that might need about three months to ramp. So basically, my guidance to you is these numbers are rough numbers. They're six to 8% impact in Q3, but every quarter, Q4 'twenty five should be better than Q3. Q1 'twenty '6 will be better than Q4 'twenty five, and Q2 'twenty six should disappear to zero.

Operator

And your next question today will come from Mark Strouth with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Mark Strouse
Mark Strouse
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Great. Thanks very much. So, Badri, I just want to confirm on that last point with the battery adjusting the supply chain. Raw material of the pack, it's still the same LFP chemistries, right? Or is there any redesign or recertification that would be needed of your product?

Mark Strouse
Mark Strouse
Executive Director at JP Morgan

And would that be added on top of this timeline that you're talking about through 2Q of twenty six?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah, good question. The whole point is to keep our LFP. We are not moving away from LFP. And also the trick is, how do we do this without redesigning everything? And so, you know, right now our plan is mainly associated with the cell.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

However, the normal qualifications will be required, because cell is the most basic entity of the battery, and we need to make sure we do the appropriate qualifications.

Mark Strouse
Mark Strouse
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Okay. That's great. And then, just kind of near term, wanted to go back to the 2Q guide. You said you're 80% booked into the midpoint of the guide. I think you mentioned this in the past, it's been closer to 85% at least the last couple of quarters.

Mark Strouse
Mark Strouse
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Just kind of your thoughts on going with that 80% number instead of 85%, just kind of what gives you the confidence to go with that higher

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Last quarter, we reported two weeks late. That was February 4. This time, this April 22. So we are fine. That 80% is good.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We expect to be 100% booked soon.

Mark Strouse
Mark Strouse
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Thank you.

Operator

And your next question today will come from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Colin Rusch
Managing Director - Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thanks so much, guys. You know, given the VPP functionality that you guys can enable, as well as some of the analytics, you know, can you talk a little bit about market share gains? You know, how you're seeing that sales process evolve and and whether you're using price as a lever to to pick up market share a little bit here as you as you go forward?

Raghu Belur
Raghu Belur
Co-founder and Chief Products Officer at Enphase Energy

Yeah. Hey, Colin, this is Raghu. When you think about battery sales, as well as actually EVSCs as well, it's now more than just batteries being used for providing resiliency or time of use peak shifting. What you're seeing is this new value proposition that adds on to it, is using your batteries to provide to either to participate in energy markets, in deregulated markets or a VPP construct where the utility can use your battery and discharge it and pay you for it. And so at the end of the day, what that means is just improves the ROI for the homeowner and reduces the payback period.

Raghu Belur
Raghu Belur
Co-founder and Chief Products Officer at Enphase Energy

So the better that you can do it is actually a value proposition. You can be better than the competition. What I mean by that is providing very high quality APIs for your partners and that they can then drive the battery and discharge the battery as needed, charge the battery as needed, and participate in energy markets. And all of that value proposition, which is good for the homeowner, is the value proposition also that drives the adoption of your batteries. If we do it better than our competition, then clearly we gain market share.

Raghu Belur
Raghu Belur
Co-founder and Chief Products Officer at Enphase Energy

And that's what we are driving towards. We see that. A number of our partners buy our batteries because of our VPP and market steering capabilities.

Colin Rusch
Managing Director - Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

That's super helpful. And then just from a logistics perspective, it looks like there's going to be some disruption in and around container ships. Can you talk a little bit about how you guys are mitigating that risk and what you're seeing in early returns on any of those elements so far?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Colin, can you kindly repeat that?

Colin Rusch
Managing Director - Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Yes, mean if you're sure, I mean just from a logistics perspective and shipping, like if you're still importing from Asia on key components, what you're seeing from a logistics perspective in terms of disruption on available ships, space, getting through customs, any sort of incremental expenses that we could be thinking about, just to make sure we're paying attention to all of those software costs.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah, and we do already see, we make, you know, maybe all of the folks who do not know on this call, 85% of our microinverters are made in The US today. 85% of our global microinverter shipments are from The US. So already there is a healthy logistic stream of raw materials, etcetera, coming into The US so that we can make our microinverter. So we don't expect any changes to that because we have diversified that well, and we have not had any problems with logistics so far. On batteries also, 40%, I would say, let me say, we shipped 170 megawatt hours in Q1.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

'40 '4 megawatt hours were made in Texas, approximately 25%. So how that works is we ship Celpaxin into Texas, we make microinverters in Texas, we make battery management in Texas, We make the enclosures at another state in The US. We make the chassis also in a neighboring state. So therefore, what is once again important there is the raw materials for making all of those. And our supply chain is, you know, we established this over three to four quarters ago.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So for us, this is, you know, although it is a disruption, for us it is not that we have to learn everything from scratch. We have already ramped up on a few areas. And we expect that 44 megawatt hours, which I said, of US making batteries, we expect that to keep going up as we proceed into the year.

Colin Rusch
Managing Director - Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thanks, guys.

Operator

And your next question today will come from Christine Cho with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Christine Cho
Christine Cho
Managing Director at Barclays

Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. I was wondering, could you remind us what the manufacturing plans were for 10C? I thought the initial rollout was going to have The U. S.

Christine Cho
Christine Cho
Managing Director at Barclays

Inverters shipped to China and then assembled there and shipped back to The U. S. Before all this tariff news and then the domestic content version was going to come out later. So first of all, is this correct? And if it is, are you changing these plans so that you're not importing the full battery into The U.

Christine Cho
Christine Cho
Managing Director at Barclays

S, which will be subject to a higher nominal tariff? And if that's the case, does this impact the rollout of 10C at all, if you do have to change plans?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

No, it does not rule out the impact of 10C. We are starting with the non domestic version, and that is correct. They are, you know, the microinverters for the non domestic version will be made in The US and the rest of the battery is made outside The US, but being shipped in. But we are quickly in about two to three months' time, we will quickly realign the supply chain to have the domestic content product also available for the 10C. So, you know, right now, whatever we plan to ship in the second quarter will be the nondomestic version, and in a couple of months from then, the domestic version will be available.

Christine Cho
Christine Cho
Managing Director at Barclays

Okay. And then your guide for the 2Q quarter on top line and battery shipments are about the same as 1Q. And even if I am to add back the two percentage points of the tariff impact, would you imply your gross margins are still down about 150 bps at the midpoint? What exactly is driving that? And even though you talk about being diversified on the supply chain, offer microinverters and having a lot of domestic suppliers, so maybe you might not directly seeing tariffs, but aren't your suppliers still seeing price increases on their raw materials in this inflationary environment?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Well, I mean, we said that the 2% increase was attributed tariffs for the current quarter. However, on batteries, I mean, what you said is right. We not, you know, we plan to ship a smaller quantity than the usual full quarter quantity on batteries, while the fourth generation battery is new. And let us say I ship, let us say I ship and which, yeah, I'm not guiding to the number, let us say I ship 30 megawatt hours of the fourth generation battery, and that would come with a little more tariff, you know, compared to the inventory that we will have on the third generation tariff. Hence, we guided to the 2% there.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

That's all.

Operator

And your next question today will come from Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Andrew Percoco
Andrew Percoco
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks so much for taking our questions. I do just want to again come back to this battery storage concept for a second. I'm just curious, you mentioned at the beginning of Q and A, I think 95 of LFP cells come from China. So presumably, a lot of your competitors and peers are also trying to get their hands on the supply you guys are working on.

Andrew Percoco
Andrew Percoco
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

So just curious how you see the cost environment for that non China supply evolving over time and the conversations you've had with some of those suppliers? And then second to that, just trying to figure out when you talk about getting to 0% gross margin impact by the second quarter of twenty twenty six, how much of that is dependent on just completely exiting China from an LFP perspective versus taking action on price? Just trying to get a sense for breakdown there. Thank you.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah, 95% of the LFP cells in China, yes, that's right. Don't forget that there is, there are some Korean suppliers who do make NMC. And we have never used NMC. We've never liked NMC. That's our opinion.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

LFP is is what we like in terms of safety. So that's the first one. Then the question that you asked, you know, it is the biggest factor that affects the battery tariff is the cell. You cannot get away from that. So if we cannot, meaning if our plans do not materialize for transferring the cells, that's a problem.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And then we would have to look at passing more of the cost impact to our customers. But right now, the right thing to do is we get, you know, we get these batteries, we get the battery cells diversified out of China, and we are working, we are not talking about, we are not talking about unnamed suppliers. We are working with two great suppliers, and we have very tangible plans. We have tangible schedules, and since the timeframe we are talking about is two to three quarters, we thought the right thing to do is to basically absorb a fraction, significant fraction of it ourselves, and return back to normalcy very quickly.

Andrew Percoco
Andrew Percoco
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Understood. Thank you for that. And maybe just to ask a higher level question here. I know you guys don't guide beyond one quarter, but I guess how do you envision the market evolving over the balance of the year? You obviously have IRA uncertainty, which might not be resolved until 3Q, 4Q at some point.

Andrew Percoco
Andrew Percoco
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Obviously, have had an impact on recession concerns and consumer sentiment. So how do you expect the demand environment to evolve over the balance of the year just given the level of uncertainty and the impact that has had on broader consumer sentiment, which obviously could lead into and have an impact on end market demand for residential solar. So just curious how you're thinking about that at a higher level. Thank you.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah, I mean, look, Q1 is usually the seasonally worst quarter. We are past Q1. Q2, Q3, and even Q4 to an extent are, you know, normally the good seasonal quarters. So we are expecting that. In addition, you know, our value proposition, the value proposition of solar and batteries relies a lot on utility rates, And it is not exactly that the utility rates are going down everywhere.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

They are in fact going up. And so as long as that happens,

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

the

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

ROI of tomorrow will be better than today. And so, you know, utility rates is an important factor. You saw what is happening to NEM three. You know, NEM three, just to remind you, did away with net metering, and there is a small feed in, only small export compensation. That caused the battery attached in California to go to 90%.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So, you know, it was a very difficult transition. We don't like how abruptly the transition was done, but at the end of the day, things are looking more stable in California in terms of solar and storage, with a very healthy value proposition. And that healthy value proposition came from the fact that the utility rates are high. So that's a factor that will always be going for us. Then you have the explosion in AI.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

The explosion in AI, what it's going to cause is electricity, is, you know, electricity supply is going to get stretched, both front of the meter as well as behind the meter. And we are not here to argue which one is better, but, you know, it is that what we do is behind the meter, while a lot of capacity is put in place in front of the meter. You know, that's got a long cycle of approval, the front of the meter. So we think in order to be balanced, or in order to have proper energy security for America, we need to have a thriving behind the meter business in addition to front of the meter. And behind the meter, we are talking about every home is a power plant, mini power plant, solar plus storage.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And so I think it is only a matter of time when people start seeing this, and there is clarity on IRA, BITC, and PTC. And I think demand will be unlocked after that.

Operator

Your next question today will come from Maheep Mandloy with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

David Benjamin
David Benjamin
Equity Research Associate at Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.

Hi, this is David Benjamin for Maheep. Thanks for taking our questions. Does your Q2 guide assume any negative impacts from higher tariffs on Southeast Asia modules and the impact on U. S. Solar demand?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

No, we don't deal with modules from Southeast Asia.

David Benjamin
David Benjamin
Equity Research Associate at Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.

Okay. So you don't see any impact on overall solar demand?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And then another question. Solar demand may be utility scale may be impacted to an extent. We don't expect any demand any impact on residential.

David Benjamin
David Benjamin
Equity Research Associate at Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.

Okay. Thank you. And then you and then you did mention that channel inventory was slightly up. Is that in Europe or is The US? And does that imply like any potential new destocking?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

No, the channel inventory is, okay, is up because when your sell through goes down, the channel inventory can go slightly up out of our usual targets. Our targets are between eight and ten weeks. So, but when your sell through is down more than what you anticipated, then that can go slightly up. The ways to recover it back are quite simple, not ship much into the channel, and then improve the sell through in a seasonal quarter like q two, which is bound to have more sell through in q two than q one. So we believe it's a normal normal cycle, and we are disciplined to control the amount of material in the channel with that discipline, it should come back quickly in bulk.

Operator

Your next question today will come from Julien Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Hey, good afternoon, team.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Thank you guys very much. Appreciate it. Maybe just follow-up on the last question a little bit further. Can you talk about what you're seeing in terms

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

of end market demand, right? You talked about sort of restocking and now destocking here and seemingly in the second quarter. What are you seeing in terms of year over year volumetric trends? I know you provided, obviously, second quarter here, but can you talk about volumetric trends were at large, a. And then b, can you talk a little bit more about safe harbor as well?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

It seems like you're implying that the substantive amount of the $95,000,000 is contemplated in the first half and with fairly little safe harbor contemplated in

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

the back half. But maybe you could

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

talk about maybe early indications on that front.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah, the I'll answer the second question first. Safe harbor, you're right, we have $54,000,000 was in Q1. We said 40,000,000 approximately in Q2. And, you know, right now, we do not yet have safe harbor plans, meaning our customers haven't yet asked for them, but I'm sure that, you know, if they want to stock, you know, due to something else, we advise in the second quarter call. Volumetric trends.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So volumetric trends is, you know, we talked about it, you know, so far. The Q1 is the weakest in terms of demand. And now we had, we talked about a large national leasing provider basically having some financial difficulties. So because of that, our installers have stumbling blocks, and they need to recover, and they will recover by going to new financiers. In that time, the installation starts.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And so that's why we saw a little bit worse sell through from our distributors to installers in Q1. We believe that, we believe that, you know, there are a lot of financiers, other financiers now who can really pick up the business. So we we believe that that trend will will stop and normal sell through will take over. So we expect, you know, the normal seasonality to show up from Q1 to Q2. In addition, these one time effects will take some time to clear.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

As for Q3 and Q4, I talked about it at length. There is some policy clarity that has to come. For us, we are not stopping like what I said. Our fourth generation system is, we expect to ship our fourth generation system product in the current quarter, and that makes backup extremely easy and extremely cost effective. So we expect to do that.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

We expect to introduce IQ nine in the fourth quarter, diversifying ourselves into the four eighty volt three phase small commercial business. IQ nine, by the way, will also, you know, I talked at length about the innovation with GaN. With GaN, we are able to get our cost structure very similar to the prior generation, but provide 10% more power. So that means the cost per watt would be 10% down compared to our prior generation. So we have all of these vectors, and, you know, then I talked about the utility rates going up.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So we expect general growth through the year, primarily due to our new products, and policy clarity will also help a little bit.

Operator

Your next question today will come from Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Kashy Harrison
Kashy Harrison
Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. Just two quick ones for me. My first question, on the topic of GaN, are there alternative sources for gallium outside of China? Just trying to think through risk mitigation in the event that the trade war potentially gets worse before it gets better.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah, we have talked at this at length with our sources. We have more than one source. All of them are comfortable that they have it covered. We are not worried about it.

Kashy Harrison
Kashy Harrison
Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay. And then my follow-up, you indicated that excuse me, you indicated that Europe is still challenging, but your sell through was down 9%, which doesn't sound that bad from a seasonality perspective. And so I'm just curious, what are you seeing that makes you characterize the entirety of the region as challenging? Is it just France, or is there some other dynamic that we to be thinking about? Thank you.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

No, I think we talked about that. That is the piece that sell through was a little down at 9%. But what I said is we introduced new products into the region, that's why our numbers were up, and we talked at length about all of the initiatives in Netherlands. In Netherlands, net metering will disappear in 2027. That means all of the customers are going to be looking forward to a battery solution in order to conserve or in order to lower their electricity bill.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So it is a huge opportunity as well, but that will become a solar plus storage market. We are working with our installers and the retail energy providers to transition that market properly. And the second one is France. We talked about the utility rate going down, but there again, I think that it is a short term blip for a couple of quarters. We expect the VAT to be reduced there, and we also expect the utility rates to go back up according to what we, you know, the public news available.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So I think that one, you know, what we are doing, we are constantly introducing new products. Our three phase battery with backup, we will introduce there shortly. We will, we have introduced our newest IQ EV charger. We are introducing hot water heater capability there. That is today, today in France, the feed in tariff is only €4 cents per kilowatt hour.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

And when you have €4 cents per kilowatt hour, it does not make sense to export energy. You would rather save energy. And if I take that solar energy and I divert it, steer it towards the hot water heater, that's a much better use of the energy. So that solution will be available in this quarter, current quarter. So I talked about that.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Germany is really where we had a nice uptick in Q1, and that is because of the flex phase battery, where we introduced three phase with backup. So what we are doing in Europe, although the market isn't, you know, terribly strong yet, we, our SAM has increased from strength to strength through these new products. And that's why we are more positive on Europe. That's why you saw our revenue went up in Europe.

Operator

Your next question today will come from Austin Moeller with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Austin Moeller
Director - Equity Research at Canaccord Genuity - Global Capital Markets

Hi. Good afternoon. Just my first question. Given the administration's announcement of new tariffs on panels in Southeast Asia, I assume that your supply chain team is not expecting that a trade deal with China or Vietnam will benefit inverter or battery manufacturing, and you're just going to accelerate the diversification of your supply chain out of China?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yeah. I mean, that's the general plan. We are accelerating the move specifically for batteries. We've already completed for microinverters. Like what I said, microinverters and accessories, they're almost done.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

That's right.

Austin Moeller
Director - Equity Research at Canaccord Genuity - Global Capital Markets

Okay. And and just a follow-up. So, I mean, I the the general assumption here is US Installers are advanced procuring inverters and batteries and and waiting to sell product probably once interest rates go down. So do you think the persistent high interest rate level right now is limiting some of the demand from customers to install ahead of potentially the 30% investment tax credit being repealed in 2026?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yes, the, you know, high interest rates is absolutely an important factor. You know, the residential solar business, 60% of the business used to be loans. And now it has changed to leases, and probably 30% is still with loans. And anything you do on the interest rates there will help and will help for demand. That's right.

David Benjamin
David Benjamin
Equity Research Associate at Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.

Great. Thanks for your insight.

Operator

And your next question today will come from Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.

Joseph Osha
Senior Managing Director - Equity Research at Guggenheim Partners

Hi, everybody. Hi, Badri. Thanks for taking my question. Sorry to belabor this question of cell supply. Are you saying, say, a year from now that you think you'll be able to source LFP from outside of China at the same price you can get it from inside China?

Joseph Osha
Senior Managing Director - Equity Research at Guggenheim Partners

Or are you saying that you're going to pay what you have to pay and pass that on to customers? I'm trying to understand what your view of this is.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Mean, B, but meaning the second option that you said, but the prices of those cells aren't that high.

Joseph Osha
Senior Managing Director - Equity Research at Guggenheim Partners

I'm sorry, I don't follow. So you're saying that you think cells will be more expensive relative to your current No.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Let me tell you what. Cell pricing, you know, the cell pricing is affordable, even if it, let us say, goes up by 20%. It is affordable. But when you take a cell in China and you put it into a product, for example, you assemble it in any place, even outside China, even outside The US, you know, you have to pay the 145% extra tariff because the cell is in China. Now what you could do is, again, to diversify your supply chain.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

You could make yourselves in, let us say, Eastern Europe. You could make yourselves in Eastern Europe, LFP cells. You could bring it in to The US. You could have a packing facility in The US, and you could get in other raw materials into The US. It will be significantly cheaper to do, because you no longer pay the 150, one hundred and 40 five percent.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

So even if those basic cells were 20% higher, it doesn't matter.

Joseph Osha
Senior Managing Director - Equity Research at Guggenheim Partners

Okay, but clearly it's going to

Joseph Osha
Senior Managing Director - Equity Research at Guggenheim Partners

be more expensive than the status quo was prior to the tariffs and when you were able to source out of China without 145%, right?

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

Yes, if you want it to be legally right, it is going to be expensive. But does it matter? It doesn't matter.

Joseph Osha
Senior Managing Director - Equity Research at Guggenheim Partners

Okay, thank you for clarifying.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

That's right.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Badri Kossanaradam for any closing remarks.

Badri Kothandaraman
Badri Kothandaraman
President and CEO at Enphase Energy

All right. Thank you for joining us today and for your continued support of Enphase. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Zach Freedman
      Zach Freedman
      Investor Relations
    • Badri Kothandaraman
      Badri Kothandaraman
      President and CEO
    • Mandy Yang
      Mandy Yang
      EVP & CFO
    • Raghu Belur
      Raghu Belur
      Co-founder and Chief Products Officer
Analysts
Earnings Conference Call
Enphase Energy Q1 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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