Corteva Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 2, 2024

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Mark, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Corteva AgriSciences First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

I would now like to turn the call over to Kim Boot, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to Corteva's Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Chuck Magro, Chief Executive Officer and Dave Anderson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tim Glenn, Executive Vice President, Seed Business Unit and Robert King, Executive Vice President, Crop Protection Business Unit will join the Q and A session. We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks during this call, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the Corteva website and through the link to our webcast. During this call, we will make forward looking statements, which are our expectations about the future.

Speaker 1

These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could materially differ from these statements due to these risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those discussed on this call and in the Risk Factors section of our reports filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward looking statements. Please note in today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release and related schedules along with our supplemental financial summary slide deck available on our Investor Relations website.

Speaker 1

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Chuck.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Kim. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We continue to be very pleased with the progress we're making executing our strategic plan, including items such as the Enlist technology, biologicals, increased investment in strategic innovation and our productivity and cost actions. Today's focus will be on our Q1 performance and also some insights into how we see the rest of the first half and year unfold. Let me start with the bottom line.

Speaker 2

While the crop is not yet fully planted in North America, 2024 is playing out mostly as we expected. And so we are reaffirming our full year guidance, which we announced in early February and we remain on track to meet our 2025 financial framework. Globally, from an industry perspective, we have relatively constructive fundamentals. We continue to see record setting demand for grain, oilseeds, feed and biofuels. In order to meet this growing demand, farmers are investing in premium seed and crop protection technologies to enhance and protect yield.

Speaker 2

Our seed business is having a very good start to the year. Organic sales are up 5% and price is up 6%, reflecting the value our seed technology consistently delivers to farmers. Our seed order book reflects strong demand for our product lineup. We are planning to bring about 500 new products to the market this year with approximately 300 new seed hybrids and varieties. Factored into our guidance for the year is the fact that farmers in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Are projected to shift planted area from corn to soybeans, resulting in a projected increase in soybean area of about 3.5%. If current trends hold, about 60% of all U. S. Soybean acres will be planted with our Enlist technology in 2024, quite an impressive feat in less than 5 years where we continue to be the number one selling soybean technology in the U.

Speaker 2

S. On the crop protection side, ample supply and the residual effects of destocking are creating a more competitive environment. This is coupled with farmers making their purchases much closer to the application window, resulting in a delay in volumes. But all signs point to volume growth in the second half, particularly in Latin America, as the channel inventory imbalance in remaining regions is expected to stabilize. At a high level, our Crop Protection business has made significant performance improvements since 2021.

Speaker 2

By the end of 2024, we anticipate that we will have added $1,000,000,000 of new products in biological sales, exited $500,000,000 of lower margin products and improved EBITDA margin by about 200 basis points in that 3 year timeframe. Our differentiated crop protection portfolio will continue to create new pathways to value creation. And this has been strengthened by our industry leading biological business. As a result of targeted portfolio actions and strategic investments in fast growth market segments, our portfolio differentiation mix has grown from about 50% to an estimated 60% in 2024. We also continue to execute on the optimization of our global crop protection asset footprint, where we are estimating annual run rate savings of $100,000,000 by 2025.

Speaker 2

As I said, we expect the crop protection industry to return to volume growth in the second half. Mix enrichment driven by our new products and biologicals as well as the cost actions I mentioned will drive margin improvement in our Crop Protection business in 2024. A final point on controlling the controllables. In 2024 and again in 2025, we're still expecting to see between $350,000,000 $450,000,000 of benefits from our self help levers. These actions continue to drive value creation for the company and are providing margin enhancement throughout the ag cycle.

Speaker 2

Finally, I'd like to note that in about a month, Corteva turns 5. We'll be celebrating not only our 5th anniversary, but also the impact we've had on farms around the world over that time and the value that impact has created for farmers, for shareholders and for the world at large. It's been a remarkable journey in which we rolled out more than 1500 new and next generation products and technology to our 10,000,000 global customers. I'm proud to say that together with our 23,000 employees, we've built one of the most competitively advantaged agricultural technology portfolios in the industry and we remain optimistic about the future of agriculture and the future of Corteva. And with that, let me turn the call over to Dave.

Speaker 3

Thanks Chuck and welcome everyone to the call. Let's start on Slide 5, which provides the financial results for the quarter. As Chuck said and you can see from the numbers, the results for the quarter were largely in line with expectations with both sales and operating EBITDA down from prior year. Organic sales were down 6% compared to last year with seed growth offset by crop protection. Seed volume gains in the Q1 in North America were offset by seed volume declines in all other regions.

Speaker 3

And as expected, crop production volumes were down double digits against a strong Q1 of 2023 comparison. We're obviously pleased to report another Q1 with more than $1,000,000,000 of operating EBITDA in part due to benefits from improved net royalty expense and productivity savings. However, operating EBITDA was down 16% compared to prior year and EBITDA margin for the quarter was 23% or down approximately 200 basis points versus prior year with margin expansion in seed offset by crop protection headwinds. Let's go to Slide 6 and review sales by segment. Seed net sales were up 2% to nearly $2,800,000,000 Organic sales were up 5% on broad based pricing gains as we continue to price for value.

Speaker 3

And global seed pricing was up 6% with gains in every region and across the portfolio. Seed volumes were down 1% versus prior year. Gains in North America driven by mild weather and strong execution were offset by declines in other regions. Notably volumes in EMEA were down due to delays in demand associated with unfavorable weather. Crop protection net sales were down 20% in the quarter versus a strong Q1 in 2023.

Speaker 3

The sales decline was driven by residual impacts of destocking in EMEA in Latin America and the shift to just in time purchasing in North America, pushing sales out closer to the application window, which is largely in the Q2. Crop protection volumes were down 18% in the quarter, including the impact of strategic product exits. Pricing was down 3% compared to prior year, driven by competitive pressures and tight channel inventory management. Crop protection pricing in EMEA was up 4% largely in response to currency impacts. Slide 7 illustrates the significance of the last week of March for sea deliveries in the U.

Speaker 3

S. With mild weather in much of the United States during March, Pioneer sea deliveries tracked ahead of prior year, putting 2024 closer in line to the Q1 of 20212022, which we would consider a normal delivery pattern versus last year's delays. The favorable product mix coupled with seasonal price increases translated to a strong seed operating EBITDA margin for the quarter, approximately 300 basis points above last year. With that, let's go to Slide 8 for a summary of Q1 operating EBITDA performance. For the quarter, operating EBITDA was down approximately $200,000,000 to just over $1,000,000,000 again largely in line with expectations.

Speaker 3

Pricing gains coupled with improvement in net royalties and productivity actions were offset by volume declines and cost and currency headwinds. The $22,000,000 of cost headwinds in the quarter was related to higher seed commodity costs and modest crop protection inflation on input costs reflecting the sell through of higher cost inventory. Importantly, based on raw material purchases, we still expect to deliver approximately $100,000,000 of savings for full year 2024 from crop protection input cost deflation. SG and A for the quarter was up approximately 1% primarily from a full quarter of SG and A from the biologicals acquisitions. Excluding acquisitions, SG and A was down more than 2% versus prior year as we maintain disciplined spending.

Speaker 3

With that, let's go to Slide 9 and transition to the setup for the remainder of the year. I want to share the key assumptions for the first half and second half of 2024. We expect sales for the first half to be down low single digits with EBITDA flat to slightly down versus last year. Seed is expected to continue the momentum from Q1 and deliver solid growth in the first half of the year, led by North America on a strong product lineup. Crop protection will continue to experience impacts from the shift to just in time demand and residual destocking and will likely be down in the first half of twenty twenty four compared to the prior year.

Speaker 3

Both seed and crop protection are expected to experience cost headwinds through the first half of the year related to higher seed commodity costs and crop protection input costs. These market driven cost headwinds will be partially offset by benefits related to reduced net royalty expense and also productivity actions. SG and A and R and D investment are both expected to modestly increase in the first half of twenty twenty four compared to last year. Now turning to the right side of Slide 9, regarding the second half of the year, we expect double digit sales and EBITDA growth driven primarily by crop protection, partly as a result of the comparison to 2023 second half where volume and price combined were down 16% from 2022. In seed, we expect a rebound in Brazil's safrinacorn area after a reduction in the 2023, 2024 season due mostly to weather.

Speaker 3

We expect seed results in the second half to be in line with historical pattern, meaning likely a small EBITDA loss in the second half. Crop protection volume gains will drive much of the growth in the second half with pricing expecting expected to remain challenged. We expect crop protection volume growth in the second half to be enabled by some market stabilization in Latin America. Our base case assumption is for a volume uptick year over year in Brazil led by new products, spinosans and biologicals. And available data suggests channel inventories are trending down in Brazil.

Speaker 3

While they're still higher than historical average, inventory levels have come down versus 2023 year end. So the channel is making progress towards a more normalized inventory level. And the demand at the farm gate in Brazil remains healthy and the expected increase in planted area supports additional crop protection applications. So the second half outlook for biologicals growth is largely driven by Stoller, which has a strong market position in Brazil. We expect to see input cost deflation in cryoprotectin during the second half of the year, coupled with productivity and cost actions, including benefits from the footprint optimization project, we anticipate a cost tailwind for crop protection.

Speaker 3

And as a reminder, we expect an increase in SG and A spend in 2024 driven by normalized bad debt and compensation accruals. We also continue to increase the investment in R and D. So the balance of improved market conditions and continued execution on controllables will drive second half growth. Together with the roughly flat first half and double digit second half EBITDA growth, we remain on track for full year 2024 operating EBITDA guidance in the range of $3,500,000,000 to $3,700,000,000 but the path will be a little different than our original assumptions. Specifically, in addition to more volume growth, we now expect total company pricing to be slightly down for the year with crop protection pricing more than offsetting the low single digit price gains in seed.

Speaker 3

And while we're expecting total costs to be marginally higher for the year, an increase from our original assumption, we remain on track to deliver savings on our controllables, a $100,000,000 reduction in net royalty expense, dollars 100,000,000 of crop protection input cost deflation and $200,000,000 from productivity and cost actions. So let's now go to Slide 10 and summarize the key takeaways. 1st, operating EBITDA performance

Speaker 4

for the Q1 was in

Speaker 3

line with expectations, led by the strength of the seed business. And while Q1 2024 results were down versus prior year, we remain on track to deliver our full year 2024 guidance, including sales and earnings growth. And after our standout performance in 2023, the C business momentum continues in the first half of twenty twenty four driven by pricing for technology and continued reduction of net royalty expense. Looking forward to the second half of the year, crop protection cost actions and some market improvement will drive much of the growth. And finally, the strong first quarter cash flow results supports our ability to deliver the midpoint of our free cash flow guidance of 1,750,000,000 or approximately 50% conversion.

Speaker 3

And with that, let me turn it over to Kim with an announcement about a significant upcoming event. Kim?

Speaker 1

Thanks, Dave. We're excited to announce that our 2024 Investor Day will be held on November 19 in New York City. The management team will provide updates on the company's strategy and financial targets along with highlights showcasing our innovation and pipeline. We look forward to seeing many of you at this event in November. Now let's move on to your questions.

Speaker 1

I would like to remind you that our cautions on forward looking statements and non GAAP measures apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q and A. Operator, please provide the Q and A instructions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Your first question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you and good morning everyone. Chuck and Dave, thanks for all the updates on the Q1. Could you help us just understand your confidence in the line of sight you have in sort of bridging the Q1 to the Q2 to make that half? Clearly, the seed order book, you've got a good line of sight on, but maybe talk a little bit more about your confidence on the crop protection side? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Vincent. So let me start. I'll give you the backdrop and then Dave can help you with the bridging. So first of all, let me say that we're still feeling good about the ag economy.

Speaker 2

We've got record demand. On farm demand looks very steady and healthy. And generally speaking, and this is a broad statement, farmers are still making money. They're off their peaks, of course, but this is a pretty healthy macroeconomic environment for them to be operating in. I'd say the other thing that is trending well for us is we're feeling quite good about, what we call controlling the controllable.

Speaker 2

So this notion last year, if you recall 2023, we removed about $500,000,000 from self help, in terms of cost reduction, productivity improvements, royalty improvements. So this year we're targeting $350,000,000 to $450,000,000 and a lot of that is coming together quite nicely. And then if you just look at the seed business, it's having a very strong year, especially what I'd say out of North America. And the business continues to grow organically And I think that's quite important as we bring in new technology and that technology of course is being had quite a high uptake on the farm. So I think given that backdrop when we look at it we felt it was important to look at the full year first of all.

Speaker 2

And we think the year is unfolding pretty much as we expected. So the 3.5% to 3.7% would hold. And then looking even past 2024 into 2025, the value creation framework we laid out, we still feel very comfortable about that. Dave, do you want to now talk a little bit about the quarter 1, quarter 2 and the bridging? Sure.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Vincent. So it's really a continuation of some of the themes that we talked about for the Q1, including the strong North America seed despite the anticipation obviously of reduced corn acres. But that's going to continue to be very positive. We're going to see the flow through and the benefit of that in terms of first half results. There's some improvement that's anticipated in the crop protection business, but we're still, as I mentioned, I think in the prepared remarks, expecting crop to be down both revenue and EBITDA on a year over year basis.

Speaker 3

So we're going to finish, the 2nd quarter is going to be an improvement in the trend line on crop protection in terms of the variance from prior year, but not enough to offset that Q1. So the first half will have will be down in that segment on a year over year basis. As you know, we've got only modest improvement included in expected for the biologicals business that's really going to be more much more significant in the second half. The other thing is in terms of the benefit of cost deflation and particularly on the crop protection side, as you know, that's really weighted to the second half as well. So the bridge, if you will, to the first half is really for the most part a continuation of the themes that we experienced in the Q1.

Speaker 3

And then the second half, it really becomes much more of a volume story for both seed and crop and much more of the productivity and the live through, if you will, of the deflation benefit that we anticipate up crop protection. So hopefully that's helpful. And by the way, just as a reminder, just in terms of our overall guide and kind of a restatement or context is that we're anticipating again, we stated this at the beginning of the year and we affirm that in our conversation or comments earlier, which is around an eightytwenty, if you will, split in terms of EBITDA for the first half. So think of that as flat to slightly down for the first half. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Hi, this is David Huang here for Dave. Can you just talk about the pricing dynamic in U. S.

Operator

Soybean this year and how competitive it is and if you're seeing any pressure?

Speaker 3

I'll turn that over to Tim.

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean my first answer is always the markets are always competitive. So no question about that. And we operate our branded business, especially at the high end of the market. We're selling a premium product, top performance.

Speaker 5

And so I don't know if I'd say it's any more competitive than what it typically is, but soybeans are more so than corn in recent years competitive and there's always lower cost options in the marketplace. So I think our teams have done a very good job of creating demand and filling that order. I think we're obviously continue to be focused on getting paid for the value that we deliver to our customers. And we're fortunate we work with a group of customers who appreciate that value and we're going to continue to focus on it. But my answer is it's competitive.

Speaker 5

It's always competitive. There are always lower cost alternatives, but farmers are very, very interested in planting high performing products.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning. May I ask a bit of a strategy question on seeds, so we're all aware of what's going on with the cambah in U. S. Or I think we know. You're obviously a seed player who produces seed with the different traits, your own list, variations of extend variations and flex.

Speaker 6

What strategically do you do here? What is your view on what will happen to CAMBA for 2025 and for the rest of the year? How does that affect your own seed growing strategy now? When you are contracting out seed growers this year, Are you going to increase your usual set of seeds so you have different variations across the tenant list? Or are you going to maybe talk about what you do in this uncertainty?

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Joel. Let me give you the overall context from a seed strategy and then Tim can answer the question on sort of the current dynamics and what we're finding from an order book perspective. So, we said it already a couple of times today. I think we're very pleased with the seed performance and we are expecting growth again in 2024 and margin expansion.

Speaker 2

And it's really coming down I think for us. We have shifted our strategy and it's been a long investment over some time. But when you're launching 300 new seed hybrid and varieties almost every year and we're able to price for that value that farmers are seeing in terms of productivity and yield and disease resistance, insect resistance. I think that's the best of all worlds for all the players here. So our strategy simply put, we've moved away from being sort of a net technology purchaser to a net technology seller.

Speaker 2

And the out licensing is still small in terms of revenue, but it is ramping up. And Enlist would be our first sort of franchise that we're really getting momentum there and we've got lots of partners that are buying that technology now. Canola and corn are ramping up nicely and we like that overall feed strategy. And we've communicated that even this year, we're expecting another $100,000,000 of net benefits in terms of lower net royalties and this is that journey to neutrality that we said we would be on towards the end of the decade. I'll turn it over to Tim now, but just one last comment.

Speaker 2

We really haven't seen lower costs flow through the seed business yet. And we said that that wouldn't happen until most likely in 2025. We're still on plan for that. So you've got this wonderful business that is selling technology, but eventually you're going to see some lower COGS as well as that works through our hedges and how we kind of manage the cost of product that we have to in 2025 and in 2026. So there's some new and exciting things that will come and we'll talk more about that at our Investor Day in September.

Speaker 2

But Tim, maybe the current order book and the dynamics you're sensing in the marketplace.

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, it's certainly one of the things that we've been looking at closely for the last several months as the questions around what the future of dicamba label looks like. Again, just to reiterate this year, I'd say that the decision had a very minimal impact on what was planted this year. So in terms of the commercial crop that farmers are planting, by and large when the decision was made on the Decambel label, seed was purchased, it was probably paid for. And I think the market felt like that there was an adequate supply of dicamba in the channel for those who want to spray.

Speaker 5

Going into next year, clearly, it's some big questions to answer there. First thing I'd say is, it is still too early to speculate on how the market fully plays out given the in terms of over in terms of over the top applications on the soybeans. So we've stayed close to our customers and try to gauge what they're impacted or what their thoughts are there. For those customers who were still planting Xtend soybeans and in that camp of technology, I'd say that they kind of fell into 3 places. There are some who are saying, I'm done, I'm ready to switch.

Speaker 5

And I would will shift to enlist as we go into next year. There are some who are going to stick with it in anticipation that there will be the opportunity to use Dicamba in the future and they're satisfied with the products and want to stay there. And I'd say the majority of farmers are probably stepping back and looking at the situation and playing wait and see. They're months away from having to make a decision on seed purchases. And so they're going to wait and see what that looks like, what that field looks like going forward.

Speaker 5

In terms of what it meant for our decisions on seed planting, as we plan our seed crop right now, we always plant with the opportunity for some upside on demand, never quite certain how the weather is going to play out and impact your supply. So I would say we've taken an approach where we will have upside on our D Series and A Series products if the demand is there going forward. So we're positioned well for that. And you got to remember that there's over 100 licensees who have access to the technology, very supportive. And no doubt, collectively, I would say that as seed producers, we've all taken a position where I would expect that there'll be some upside supply should demand switch.

Speaker 5

But it's one of those things that we all got to kind of sit back, wait and see. We are obviously staying close to our customers. We will continue to go out there and help them understand the value of our technology. And I think as we get into the seed selling season, as we go into say September, October, November of next year, farmers are going to be faced with that critical decision based off of what the opportunity for using dicamba in season looks like.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you and good morning everyone. We've been reading in recent weeks about the proliferation of corn stunt disease in Argentina. So I was wondering if you could talk about whether that might have any impact on Corteva either directly through insecticides or indirectly through corn market dynamics? And part of the reason I ask is, when we look at your crop protection volume trends by product line, there's quite a wide divergence or was in the quarter, looking herbicides.

Speaker 7

So maybe you could just kind of speak to the breadth of those numbers. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Hey, Kevin, this is Tim. Let me talk let me address it from the seed standpoint first. Obviously, this is an emerging issue and it's I'd say it's rapidly escalated as we've gotten later into the growing season and it's impacted clearly impacted farmers yields and I think that's what's being reported today. And we're still in the middle of harvest, so I can't speculate on what the impact is on the grain harvest. So I won't even try to go there.

Speaker 5

We do have experience with cornstun. It's the same issue we've dealt with in Brazil for the last several years. I just I'd say we know that there's always been presence of leaf hoppers in Argentina. So it never materialized where it became a commercial issue. And so from this year standpoint, I would say we're good from a seed production standpoint.

Speaker 5

Our seed crop was not impacted by cornstarch, but clearly some farmers were. And so we're going to continue to work with our customers. We are in the field right now working closely as farmers harvest the crop. Obviously, we're going to have to continue to work with them as they go and make their next season's decisions. The planting window in Argentina is pretty wide.

Speaker 5

You can have early planted corn, say in September all the way through the end of the calendar year. And so farmers are going to have to evaluate what this means for their operations and whether they will plant the same level of corn as they do last year. Roughly speaking, Argentina is about 8,000,000 hectares of corn. It's very important. 70% of that goes into the export market more or less.

Speaker 5

And so, yes, I think the risk from a seed standpoint is how many hectares of corn do they plant as they get into that window say late Q3 and into Q4. And I would anticipate that farmers are going to kind of sit back and wait and see what the populations of the leaf hoppers are and evaluate what that environment is as they get closer to making those decisions. And so I'm going to pass it to Robert to talk about the impact on the insecticide portfolio. Thanks, Tim.

Speaker 8

The herbicide stories you got to start with our portfolio has shifted over this time, the exit of several molecules, glyphosate being one of those. The second thing around that is Q1 2023 was a record herbicide quarter for our company. Couple that with 2 things. North America is really a timing. Enlist continues to really high demand.

Speaker 8

It will be up for the full year. Keep in mind, there will also be added acres in soybeans. But it's a very trusted technology by the growers and it's something that we see that will continue to grow this

Speaker 9

year. Overall,

Speaker 8

its volume for the season is in line. Keep in mind, we had a pretty good load in Q4 of In Europe, think about what would the weather that's been going on there, specifically in Northern Europe. So we're behind on some applications for cereal herbicides. And that's something that we think will work out through the year. But there's also a few acres short of wheat that was planted there this year as well.

Speaker 8

You roll that together and it begins to tell the story that we're really in a good place for herbicides as we look at it on a crop year and we expect everything to be in line for the full year. And then keep in mind, as you talked about, you asked about our insecticides in comparison to that. This one is really a testament to the spinosens franchise and the strength that technology brings. It continues to perform better than the market and it's something that the growers are pulling. It's a technology that gives them advantage on the farm.

Speaker 8

So hopefully that helps.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning. And I do love the graphic for the Investor Day. Dave, you indicated that your royalties are expected to be $100,000,000 benefit for 2024. We're over $30,000,000 as we are in 1Q. Should we think about that $100,000,000 being a floor with potential for greater benefits impacting 2024?

Speaker 4

And then also, I don't recall any comments regarding FX, which was fairly negative in 1Q. If you could offer some thoughts on FX profitability impact for 2Q and beyond that would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. Yes. So regarding the first part of your question, in terms of the royalties, those are really weighted to the first half due to North America. So, and we're on track, Frank, as you said, and I think we stated in our remarks to the $100,000,000 target, which is by the way a royalty benefit. So it's an expense reduction as well as income royalty income increase on a year over year basis.

Speaker 3

Regarding the second part of your question, regarding foreign exchange, the Q1 was really due to the Turkish lira and we had pricing that mostly offset that impact. So part of what we look at in terms of the pricing on the PVC was really offsetting that currency. We're going to have a small benefit actually in currency anticipated for the second half and that's part of what's built into our forward guide. Hopefully that's helpful.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne of Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thank you. This is Salvator Tiano of Unionsports, Steve. So I want to ask a little bit about SiP pricing outside of the U. S.

Speaker 10

And the first part is you had pretty good pricing well, price mix. And can you discuss a little bit how much of this was like for like price increases versus increase, as you mentioned, for example, in Turkey to offset the effects or just the farmers upgrading to new hybrids and varieties? And what is driving this, especially since farmer economics outside of the U. S. Are a little bit worse than here, we think?

Speaker 10

And the second part of the question is, can you let us know how do European seed prices compare to U. S. Price currently? And what is in your view the upside to pricing once you start marketing G netted products?

Speaker 2

Okay. So look, I'll have Tim talk first maybe about our strategy on how we price for value. And then we can talk a little bit about what we're seeing in each of the regions. Tim, go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. So on the price or value, I mean that's we anticipate that over time that we're going to be pricing in that low single digit range based off of the value of the new products that we bring to the market every year. So we plan to have 20%, 25 percent of our lineup in new genetics that open the door for value share with our customers and gives us that pricing power. And I think I had a little bit of difficulty following the question, but I think you asked about the relative pricing between Europe and North America. So in Europe, I would say that as Dave mentioned, Turkish lira was one of those inflationary currencies that where we had to price to offset currency and we still would have had low single digit price increase in Europe excluding those countries where we've had the price to offset currency devaluation.

Speaker 5

So there's still positive momentum there. And in terms of absolute pricing differences between the two regions, really not comparable because they're completely different products and technology packages. The majority of our products in North America would have some biotechnology associated with it and virtually none in Europe would. So really it's not an apples to apples comparison, but both are priced fairly for value and for their marketplace. So that's how we operate around the world.

Speaker 5

And I'd say the philosophy is very consistent between the regions, the geographies, it's all about bringing more value to our customers. And when we do that, then we have the opportunity to earn a share of that value back through pricing.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you so much. Can you just hit on the latest update on how you're thinking about COGS for both CPC as well as seed. Obviously, on the latter, you've had got you have a few hedges this year. So could we just think about on a preliminary basis, how should we be thinking about that as we progress throughout 2024 and into 2025?

Speaker 11

And on the CPC side, just given the number of turns in inventory you have on a per annum basis, how we should be thinking about that second half onwards? Thank you so much.

Speaker 3

So maybe I could, Chris, just give you some this is Dave, give you some perspective on that. I think, first of all, when you look at our prior guide to this guide, we do have some increase in cost on a year over year basis. And that's associated with the seed business and the assumptions around the second half and particularly, Safrina volume, which the anticipation is that we're going to see, call it recovery, market recovery there in terms of that volume. And we've got some higher cost inventory that's going to flow through in terms of cost of goods sold. And that's part of just carrying some historic higher production costs, but also it's a transition from older technology to newer technology for that market, which really will set up very, very well for improved cost in the seed business in that market in 2025 for the 2025, 2020 crop protection side in terms of and I may have mentioned this earlier, in terms of the cost deflation, in other words, ingredient or raw material cost deflation, We anticipate $150,000,000 benefit in the second half.

Speaker 3

So that will tie to our expectation of $100,000,000 of deflation benefit for the full year. So kind of under the banner of what we call or speak to in terms of controlling the controllables where cost is a very key element of that. We're absolutely on track with the exception of what I mentioned about the seed business in the second half, where we've got also a fairly significant volume uptick again associated with that market, if you will, improvement that market recovery assumption we have for Safrina. And for both businesses, what it does is it sets up for additional favorability for 2025, because we'll see now some of the call it additional deflation benefit in crop protection as well as now some of the commodity cost improvement as well as other cost actions improvement for 2025 for the seed business. Again, hope that helps.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Simulsen of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping to maybe dig in a little bit more on the crop protection side and some of the pricing dynamics that you're seeing there and just how much you think that just reflects some of the deflation in some of the active ingredients on the generic side versus an actual kind of change in the competitive landscape in any of your kind of key product lines? And maybe specifically in herbicides for Enlist in the U. S, can you talk to what the attach rate of branded Enlist herbicide is now tracking at to the Enlist acreage that you have in place?

Speaker 12

And is that is the value kind of realization on crop protection meeting kind of your own expectations from a couple of years ago as Enlist has garnered a much higher share of the soybean market? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Adam. Let me give you the overall backdrop and then I think Robert can give you sort of the specifics to your questions. What we'd say is that there is a lot of competitive tension right now and it's not one thing. I think it's still the industry working through the destocking that we've seen. And the good news is there's some green shoots.

Speaker 2

The U. S. Seems to be behind it. We've called out though that the market is going back to sort of just in time closer to the application window. So there's some timing and seasonality there.

Speaker 2

Europe is going through the destocking now and it's been through the in terms of the Q1. And then they've had some difficult weather that we've already talked about this morning and even some missed applications. But I think they're trending in the right direction. APAC has been a little bit less impactful. They had some, but not a significant amount, at least not in the products and the and the portfolios that we participate in.

Speaker 2

So then it comes down to Brazil. And the bottom line with Brazil is it is still imbalanced. It is trending in the right direction. We're seeing the channel inventories reduce certainly from the December numbers that we've seen early numbers now for the Q1 that are positive and heading in the right direction. But Brazil still needs to destock a little bit more.

Speaker 2

And we think that that will happen. It goes without saying, but on farm demand in crop protection globally is still stable and healthy. And that is a very important statement. So with that now, I'll turn it over to Robert to answer your question on Enlist and the attach rates.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Chuck. Price competition is, as Chuck talked about is pretty stiff, but our price for value continues to be pulled through by the industry and creates value on the farm. When you think about our new products and spinosans combined and the performance rate there, they continue to perform better than the portfolio, better than industry. And this Q1 was no different. These things aren't immune to impacts of the environment of marketing market environment, etcetera.

Speaker 8

But then on the specific to Enlist, it continues to have a strong pull, very strong demand. We expect spray rates to be still in that 80% range, as we've seen in the past. And we do expect that we'll see continued volume growth this year over last year with this technology. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks and good morning. You got Ryan on for Aleksey here. Just wanted to dig in a little bit on the generics in Brazil. I know in 3Q you kind of saw an influx of imports, which you then called out a little bit of a slowdown in 4Q. Just trying to understand how that progressed throughout 1Q and what you're kind of seeing today?

Speaker 13

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. So look, I think we even called it out in our Q4 in February that the generic imports into Brazil have what I'd call stabilized to sort of more normal import rates. And so they're always been part of the market and they've been a larger part in APAC in Brazil. There's nothing new there. There is some new capacity coming online for some AIs that are coming off patent.

Speaker 2

And certainly our strategy as a company overall is to sell differentiation value agronomic service. And so there's a lot of the parts of the generic market where Corteva is simply just not focused on. So I'd say that the market fundamentals today when we look at the global CP market and I think this comment applies to Brazil as well. There is nothing here that is a structural change that we can see. I think that this has been played out now and what we're seeing are sort of the return to normalization.

Speaker 2

The big question is when will we see that in some of these key markets, specifically Brazil. But the direction is clear after a couple of these data points have now come out that the inventories are receding. And we do expect as we called out that in the second half of twenty twenty four, we should see Brazil volumes start to improve. And then as we get to 2025, we would expect that the global CP industry would return to some level of growth. It's a little early to talk specifically about that because we've got to get through the second half of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2

But I think that that's what we are kind of assuming as we look forward from second half of twenty twenty four and into twenty twenty five.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Treuer from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, everyone. Good morning. And this is Rahi filling in for Ben. So I just wanted to look more into trade down within this space. So when farmers have tighter wallets like today, do you see data on farmers shying away from biologicals and mainly just buying CP that they fundamentally need?

Speaker 9

I believe this plays into seeds when farmers choose GM seeds, but those that have fewer GM traits. Maybe there's also a geographic difference, if there's any regions that trade down quicker than others, just any color on that. Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

Let me give you my perspective and then I think it would be helpful to hear from Robert and Tim on this one. So generally, what we've seen in this crop environment but also sort of at stronger conditions and even weaker conditions than we have today, farmers are always prioritizing production per acre because that in many cases, the last few bushels per acre will be their profit. And so from our overall crop inputs perspective, we have not seen a significant trend down in sort of a selection of different types of seed technology, for example. And we don't see them skipping applications, especially when they have real disease or pasture or weed pressures. And when it comes to biologicals, actually, the second half of twenty twenty three is sort of the proof point, very difficult conditions for farmers in South America, but our biologicals business was very solid.

Speaker 2

And that's because I think certainly the products that we sell are not considered to be fringe or nice to have. I think they're core to plant health, to their physiology, to how they will grow and yield. And so farmers will most likely make other decisions if things get a little tighter in terms of capital purchases and land acquisitions. But their core fertility packages and their core crop input packages, we don't really see them trading down. Tim, your thoughts?

Speaker 5

No, Chuck, I agree. I think the thing you have to remember is that the technology succeed, it's not just the yield that they're pursuing or out there, but it's the whole production system, especially when you talk about utilization of biotechnology traits. Those traits not only provide some benefit in the field, but it also changes how they manage crop over the course of the season. And they see a lot of value in the head and we have no evidence that they trade down. And the thing I always remind, when margins get tight for farmers, it's not that first bushel you produce, it's that last bushel that determines what's going to fall to the bottom line.

Speaker 5

And so I think customers understand what makes them money and they continue to invest in the things that are going to make them money over time. And in the case of seed, it's high yielding genetics and the technology to help protect the trait or protect those yields.

Speaker 2

And Robert, how about biologicals?

Speaker 8

Yes. Biologicals is they're a core part of the crop plan, and the customers we serve. And so we've seen those while not immune to everything that's going on, they've held up, as Chuck said, very, very well. And when you think about the acquisitions we made and the benefit in 2023, we were just under $500,000,000 sales this last year and we expect this to grow in the mid-20s this year and we'll double the contribution to the business. And this is all a testament to the strength of the portfolio and the people that are showing the value to the farmers as we get into this season.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess you guys didn't include the 25 slides. So I just wanted to maybe get your thoughts on if there's if anything there has changed. I think you've highlighted maybe $100,000,000 from royalty improvement as well as or sorry biologicals contribution, dollars 200,000,000 from your productivity actions.

Speaker 14

So that would leave maybe $300,000,000 to the midpoint for low single digit seed pricing and some of the other dynamics on the crop protection side. So would you just maybe offer your thoughts on if all of those drivers are still intact? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Arun. Very good question. So we're still expecting the bottom line performance consistent with the financial framework we provided for you for 2025. And just as a reminder, it's that $3,900,000,000 to $4,400,000,000 EBITDA range. And as you said, the key components and maybe just spend a quick minute here going through some of those elements.

Speaker 3

First of all, as you point out, net pricing gains for the total company, that's going to be important. That's going to be led by our seed business, but very important. Crop protection is going to have gains and Robert spoke to that in terms of the 2024 performance outlook and particularly our second half that's going to carry through into 2025 for new products, biologicals and spinosins, the contribution margin there quite attractive. On the controllables, the royalty benefit. I mentioned earlier when we were talking about the deflation and cost of raw materials, ingredients and commodities, we're going to see a deflation benefit higher net in 2025 compared to 2024.

Speaker 3

We'll have other cost of sales improvements that will translate, including the progress that we're making on the crop protection footprint optimization. And then finally, we'll have some higher investment in R and D and some modest increase in SG and A that will offset that. But the formula is very, very much intact building off that midpoint of the guide that we've provided you for 2024. So thanks a lot for the question.

Operator

That concludes our Q and A session. I will now turn the call turn the conference back over to David Anderson for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Well, first, let me tell you thanks again for your participation today and the quality of the questions. We very much appreciate the interest obviously in Corteva. We look forward to speaking to a number of you in follow-up to today's call. And also we look forward to seeing you in New York City on November 19 for an Investor Day. So thanks again.

Speaker 3

Have a great day. Appreciate it.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Corteva Q1 2024
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