Cummins Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 3, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Strong demand drove Q2 revenues to $6.1 billion (up 59% year-over-year) and EBITDA to $974 million (15.9% margin vs. 14.3% a year ago).
  • Global supply chain disruptions resulted in approximately $295 million of incremental premium freight and logistics costs for the year, expected to persist through year-end.
  • Cummins maintained 2021 guidance of 20–24% revenue growth and 15.5–16% EBITDA margin, with a plan to return 75% of operating cash flow to shareholders.
  • The company secured strategic hydrogen and renewable energy partnerships (Iberdrola, Sinopec JV, Chevron, Air Products) and is expanding electrolyzer capacity toward 2 GW by mid-decade.
  • Cummins is exploring a potential spin-off of its Filtration business to unlock shareholder value, with no related costs included in current financial outlook.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Cummins Q2 2021
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Quarter Two 2021 Cummins Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If anyone should require operator assistance during this conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Jack Kienzler, Executive Director of Investor Relations. You may begin, Jack.

Jack Kienzler
Jack Kienzler
Executive Director of Investor Relations at Cummins

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our teleconference today to discuss Cummins results for the second quarter of 2021. Participating with me today are our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Linebarger, our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jennifer Rumsey, and our Chief Financial Officer, Mark Smith. We will all be available for your questions at the end of the teleconference. Before we start, please note that some of the information that you will hear or be given today will consist of forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Such statements express our forecasts, expectations, hopes, beliefs, and intentions on strategies regarding the future. Our actual future results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties.

Jack Kienzler
Jack Kienzler
Executive Director of Investor Relations at Cummins

More information regarding such risks and uncertainties is available in the forward-looking disclosure statement in the slide deck and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K and our subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. During the course of this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, we refer you to our website for the reconciliation of those measures to GAAP financial measures. Our press release with a copy of the financial statements and a copy of today's webcast presentation are available on our website at www.cummins.com under the heading of Investors and Media. With that out of the way, we will begin with our Chairman and CEO, Tom Linebarger.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everybody. I'll start with a summary of our second quarter financial results and our market trends by region. Then finish with a discussion of our outlook for 2021. Mark will then take you through more details of both our second quarter financial performance and our forecast for this year. Demand remained strong in the second quarter as the global economy continued to improve, driving strong sales growth across most businesses and regions and resulting in solid profitability. We are encouraged by economic trends across a number of our key end markets, which point to strong demand for the remainder of this year and extending into 2022. In North America, freight activity continues to grow, leading to elevated spot and contract rates and driving fleet profitability and a rising backlog of truck orders.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Leading indicators for non-residential construction continue to improve and fiscal support for investment in capital projects is robust, led by North America and Europe. Iron ore, copper, and thermal coal prices also remain high, supporting a positive outlook for mining. Cummins is well-positioned to benefit as these markets gain momentum due to our leading global position across a number of end markets, and we continue to see demand for our products outpace our competition. Before getting into our results, I want to take a moment to highlight a number of partnerships and strategic milestones in the evolution of our next-generation technologies. In May, we formed a partnership with Iberdrola, a leading global producer of renewable power, to accelerate the global growth of business opportunities in the electrolyzer market, and especially in Europe with a focus on the Iberian Peninsula.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

The alliance will help position Cummins as a leading supplier of electrolyzer systems for large-scale projects in Europe. As part of our alliance, Cummins will be the electrolyzer supplier for a 230 MW project for a leading fertilizer producer that will serve as a benchmark for large PEM scale electrolysis globally. We signed a joint venture with Sinopec's Enze Fund in June, which will accelerate the affordability and availability of green hydrogen in China through development of hydrogen generation projects and increasing manufacturing capacity of electrolyzers and other key products in the green hydrogen supply chain. As one of the largest hydrogen suppliers in China, Sinopec's annual hydrogen production reaches 3.5 million tons, accounting for 14% of China's total hydrogen production.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

China's embrace of green hydrogen is great for the planet. Cummins and Sinopec joining together to realize the potential of green hydrogen is a huge leap forward for scaling our innovative PEM electrolyzer systems. We recently announced a strategic collaboration with Chevron to develop commercially viable business opportunities in hydrogen and other alternative energy sources. The MOU provides the framework for Chevron and Cummins to initially collaborate on four main objectives. First, advancing public policy that promotes hydrogen as a decarbonizing solution for transportation and industry. Building market demand for commercial vehicles and industrial applications powered by hydrogen. Developing infrastructure to support the use of hydrogen for industry and fuel cell vehicles. Fourth, exploring opportunities to leverage Cummins electrolyzer and fuel cell technologies at one or more of Chevron's domestic refineries.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

The partnership with Chevron allows us to scale low-carbon fuel delivery and build hydrogen corridors for use by fuel cell vehicles. In addition, we can work with Chevron to decarbonize parts of their operations using our green hydrogen technology. Finally, last week, Cummins announced the signing of an MOU with Air Products to work together to begin the transition of Air Products' heavy-duty tractor fleet to zero-emissions vehicles in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Cummins will provide hydrogen fuel cell electric powertrains integrated into selected OEM partners' heavy-duty trucks for use by Air Products. The project will take a phased approach to transition Air Products' fleet to hydrogen fuel cell electric powertrains, starting with five demonstration units to be delivered in Europe and North America by the end of next year.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Following successful demonstration, the project includes ramp-ups, with a total of 2,000 trucks to be delivered by the middle of the decade. This represents among the largest orders for fuel cell vehicles to date, and we will be working with a partner that has deep expertise in the generation, transportation, and use of hydrogen. We've now deployed more than 2,000 fuel cells and 600 electrolyzers around the world as we continue the development of our hydrogen business. In addition to accelerating our revenue momentum via these important strategic partnerships, we are also building out our electrolyzer capacity, targeting the regions which we expect to be at the forefront of green hydrogen production and commercial adoption.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

A site selection search within the Guadalajara area of Castilla-La Mancha in Spain is currently underway for Cummins' new, approximately $60 million PEM electrolyzer manufacturing plant that will house system assembly and testing for approximately 500 MW per year of electrolyzer production and will be scalable to more than 1 GW per year. Cummins Enze, the JV we signed in conjunction with Sinopec, will be located in Foshan, Guangdong Province in China. The JV will initially invest $47 million to locate a manufacturing plant to produce PEM electrolyzers. The plant will open with a manufacturing capacity of 500 MW of electrolyzers per year but will also be scalable to more than 1 GW per year.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

These investments, in addition to our build-outs underway at our current facilities in Belgium and Canada, will position us to have nearly 2 GW of capacity by the middle of the decade, with the flexibility to scale up as demand accelerates. In the battery electric space, we continue to produce and sell fully electric powertrains in first-mover markets such as transit, school bus, and yard spotters. Cummins is collaborating with PepsiCo's Frito-Lay on a battery electric demonstration truck for a pickup and delivery application that has been running daily routes since last November. This truck will be showcased at the upcoming North American Council for Freight Efficiency's electric truck demonstration. We are well-positioned with our deep market expertise and electric powertrain technology and are continuously evaluating how we can adapt and improve to meet customer demand and market trends as the technology matures.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

This includes next-generation battery electric systems to balance the durability needs of our customers while focusing on delivering products at a compelling price point. We are also continuing to explore new partnerships to enhance our capabilities, improve our cost position, and drive more volume and scale into the business. In addition to these important milestones for our new power business, we are investing in our engine and components businesses to develop advanced diesel and alternative fuel products, which will be critical to meeting customer and regulatory requirements in the coming years. We announced the signing of an LOI to acquire 50% equity interest in Momentum Fuel Technologies.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

The joint venture between Rush Enterprises and Cummins will produce Cummins-branded natural gas fuel delivery systems for the commercial vehicle market in North America, combining the strengths of Momentum Fuel Technologies, compressed natural gas fuel delivery systems, Cummins powertrain expertise, and the engineering and support infrastructure of both companies. We have seen increasing interest over the last year and expect natural gas powertrains to become an increasingly popular choice for end users due to both the compelling total cost of ownership as well as the environmental benefit of such powertrains, especially when utilizing renewable natural gas sources. We also began testing of a hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engine for heavy-duty truck applications, building on Cummins' existing technology leadership in gaseous fuel applications and powertrain leadership to create a new power solution that helps customers meet the energy and environmental needs of the future.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

The hydrogen engine program can potentially expand the technology options available to achieve a more sustainable transport sector, complementing our capabilities in hydrogen fuel cell, battery electric, and renewable gas powertrains. We are committed to bringing customers the right solution at the right time. Doing so requires us to maintain a broad portfolio of power solutions to meet our diverse customers' needs and to minimize total carbon emissions throughout the energy transition. Now I'll comment on the overall company performance for the second quarter of 2021 and cover some of our key markets, starting with North America, before moving on to our largest international markets. Revenues for the second quarter of 2021 were $6.1 billion, an increase of 59% compared to the second quarter of 2020. EBITDA was $974 million, or 15.9%, compared to $549 million, or 14.3%, a year ago.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

EBITDA increased as a result of stronger global demand and higher joint venture income, partly offset by significantly higher premium freight and other costs associated with supply chain disruptions, in addition to higher compensation costs. Our global markets experienced an unprecedented shock from the impact of COVID-19 during the second quarter of last year. While we have been encouraged by the ongoing recovery across all of our global markets, our industry continues to experience significant constraints across the supply chain, leading to an extended period of inefficiencies and higher cost. Despite these supply chain impacts, though, we are continuing to deliver strong financial performance while supporting our customers. The ability to supply our customers remains our key focus now, and while we are optimistic that the supply chain constraints will ease with time, they are likely to persist through the end of the year.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Our second quarter revenues in North America grew 74% to $3.5 billion, driven by higher industry build rates across all on-highway markets. Industry production of heavy-duty trucks in the second quarter was 67,000 units, an increase of 180% from 2020 levels, while our heavy-duty unit sales were 23,000 units, an increase of 217% from 2020. Industry production of medium-duty trucks was 29,000 units in the second quarter of 2021, an increase of 94% from 2020 levels, while our unit sales were 22,000 units, an increase of 85% from 2020. We shipped 42,000 engines to Stellantis for use in their Ram pickups in the second quarter of 2021, an increase of 272% from 2020 levels. Revenues for power generation grew by 48% due to higher demand in recreational vehicle, standby power, and data center markets. Our international revenues increased by 42% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to a year ago.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Second quarter revenues in China, including joint ventures, were $2.1 billion, an increase of 8% due to higher sales in power generation and mining markets. We also experienced a higher penetration rate with our joint venture partners in the heavy and medium duty on highway markets as they prepare for broader implementation of NS6 in July of this year. Industry demand for medium and heavy-duty trucks in China was 566,000 units, a decrease of 4%, still well above replacement, driven by continued pre-buy of NS5 trucks ahead of the broader implementation of the new NS6 standards in July of this year. Our sales in units, including joint ventures, were 85,000 units, a decrease of 5% versus the second quarter of 2020.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

The light-duty market in China decreased 8% from 2020 levels to 614,000 units, while our units sold, including joint ventures, were 38,000 units, a decrease of 28%, driven by supply chain constraints, particularly in these lighter displacement vehicles. Industry demand for excavators in the second quarter was 97,000 units, a decrease of 5% from very high 2020 levels. Our units sold were 16,800 units, a decrease of 7%. Demand for power generation equipment in China increased 47% in the second quarter, driven by growth in data center markets and other standby power markets. We continue to hold a leading market position in the data center segment, driven by strong end user relationships and a compelling product offering in that space.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Second quarter revenues in India, including joint ventures, were $392 million, an increase of 219% from the second quarter of 2020, despite experiencing a terrible second wave of COVID-19 during this period. Industry truck production increased by 468%, while our shipments increased 535% as our joint venture partner continued to gain share. Demand for power generation and construction equipment rebounded strongly in the second quarter compared to a very low base a year ago. We remained encouraged by the continued economic recovery driven by anticipated government infrastructure spending. In Brazil, our revenues increased 175%, driven by increased demand in most end markets. Now let me quickly cover our outlook for 2021. Based on our current forecast, we are maintaining full year 2021 revenue guidance of up 20%-24% versus last year.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

EBITDA is still expected to be in the range of 15.5%-16%, and the company expects to return 75% of operating cash flow to shareholders in 2021 in the form of dividends and share repurchases. Summing up the quarter, strong demand across many of our key markets drove continued sales growth in the second quarter and resulted in solid profitability. We have secured important new partnerships in our New Power segment. At the same time, we continue to invest in bringing new technologies to customers, outgrowing our end markets, and providing strong cash return to our shareholders. Before passing it over to Mark, I want to take a moment to highlight an important announcement we included in our earnings press release this morning regarding our exploration of our strategic alternatives for the Filtration business.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Cummins Filtration is a premier filtration platform and a technology leader specializing in filtration products used in heavy-, medium-duty, and light-duty trucks, industrial equipment, and power generation systems. The business generated revenues of approximately $1.2 billion in 2020 and remains well positioned for continued growth, sustained margin performance, and strong free cash flow generation. Cummins Filtration has a strong global footprint with leading positions in North America, India, and China, and a significant presence in other key markets supported by long-standing local partnerships. We are exploring a range of options to unlock significant shareholder value, including the separation of filtration into a standalone company with a dedicated management team who are well-positioned to drive the business forward and diversify its business, leveraging its strong technology portfolio and footprint.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

The execution of this exploration process is dependent upon business and market conditions, of course, along with a number of other factors and considerations. Any costs associated with the evaluation of these alternatives for the filtration business has been excluded from our financial outlook. We plan to share a lot more about this and other elements of our strategy during our Analyst Day on February 23rd. Our purpose in delaying this event from November of this year until spring is to be able to hold it in person, and we will provide more details as we get closer to the February 23rd date. Thank you for your time today, and let me turn it over to Mark.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

Thank you, Tom, good morning, everyone. There are four key takeaways from our second quarter operating results. First, underlying demand remains strong, outpacing supply and increasing backlogs in some of our largest markets. Number two, global supply chains remain constrained due to the elevated levels of demand and complications arising from COVID, resulting in higher premium freight costs and other associated inefficiencies than we anticipated three months ago. We delivered solid profitability and cash flows in the first half of the year, despite the continued cost headwinds associated with tight supply chain. For the full year, we are maintaining our revenue and profitability guidance. Fourthly, we returned $860 million to shareholders in the quarter through cash dividends and share repurchases, and $1.48 billion for the first half of the year, consistent with our plan to return 75% of operating cash flow to shareholders this year.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

Now let me go into more details on the second quarter. Second quarter revenues were $6.1 billion, an increase of 59% from a year ago, when the impact of COVID-19 was at its most severe. Sales in North America grew 74%, and international revenues rose 42%. Currency positively impacted revenues by 3%, driven primarily by a weaker U.S. dollar. EBITDA was $974 million or 15.9% of sales for the quarter, compared to $549 million or 14.3% of sales a year ago. EBITDA increased primarily due to the benefits of higher volumes and stronger earnings from our joint ventures in China and India, partially offset by higher product coverage costs and higher compensation expenses, primarily variable compensation. Gross margin of $1.5 billion or 24.2% of sales increased by $588 million or 110 basis points, primarily driven by the higher volumes.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

Global supply chain tightness continued in the second quarter and resulted in approximately $100 million of additional freight, labor, and logistics costs. We expect these costs to remain elevated in the second half of the year, with demand projected to remain strong, supply tight, and some increase in logistics and transportation costs. Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased by $130 million or 28% due to higher compensation expenses. Research expenses increased by $87 million or 46% from a year ago. As a reminder, due to the significant uncertainty at the onset of COVID-19, we implemented temporary salary reductions in April of last year that lasted through the end of September last. Salary reductions resulted in approximately $75 million of pre-tax savings for the company in the second quarter of 2020 across gross margin, selling, admin, and research expenses.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

In addition, our variable compensation plan worked as designed, flexing down in the face of weak economic conditions last year and flexing up with stronger financial performance this year. All operating segments experienced higher compensation costs than a year ago for these two primary reasons. Joint venture income was $137 million in the second quarter, up from $115 million a year ago. Strong demand for trucks and construction equipment in China, as well as a broad recovery in other international markets, led to the improved profitability versus a year ago. Other income increased by $30 million from a year ago due to a number of positive items, including a one-time $18 million gain on the sale of some land in India, which benefited our distribution segment.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

Net earnings for the quarter were $600 million, or $4.10 per diluted share, compared to $276 million, or $1.86 from a year ago, primarily due to stronger after-tax earnings driven by stronger volumes. The gain on the sale of land in India contributed $0.05 of earnings per share this quarter. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 21.4%. Operating cash flow in the quarter was an inflow of $616 million, compared to an outflow of $22 million a year ago. Stronger earnings and dividends received from joint ventures more than offset increases in working capital. I'll now comment on segment performance and our guidance for 2021, which is unchanged from three months ago. For the engine segment, second quarter revenues increased by 75%, driven by increased demand for trucks in the U.S. and construction equipment in U.S. and Europe.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

EBITDA increased from 10.5%-16.1% of sales, primarily driven by higher volumes and lower product coverage expense which more than offset higher costs and inefficiencies associated with global supply chain challenges. Although supply chain costs in this segment remain elevated from a year ago, they did improve a little from first quarter levels. We expect full year revenues to be up 23%-27%, and EBITDA margins to be in the range of 14.5%-15% for the Engine segment. In Distribution, revenues increased 20% from a year ago, and EBITDA increased as a percent of sales from 10%-10.5%, primarily due to stronger performance in North America. We have maintained our outlook for segment revenue growth to be up 6%-10%, and EBITDA margins to be 9% at the midpoint of our guidance.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

In the components business, revenues increased 73% in the second quarter, driven primarily by stronger demand for trucks in North America. EBITDA increased from 12.3% of sales to 15.1% due to the benefits of stronger volumes, partially offset by higher product coverage costs. For the full year 2021, we expect components revenue to increase 30%-34%, and EBITDA to be 17% at the midpoint. In the power systems segment, revenues increased 47% in the second quarter, driven by stronger global demand for power generation and mining equipment. EBITDA increased from 11.7% to 12.2% of sales, primarily due to the benefits of higher volumes and lower product coverage expenses. We are maintaining our power systems guidance of revenues up 16%-20%, and EBITDA margin in the range of 11%-11.5% of sales.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

In the New Power segment, revenues increased to $24 million, up 140% due to stronger sales of battery electric systems and fuel cells. EBITDA losses for the quarter were $60 million, in line with our expectations as we continue to invest in new products and scale up ahead of widespread adoption of the new technologies. For the full year, we currently project New Power revenues of $110 million-$130 million, and EBITDA losses to be in the range of $190 million-$210 million. Total company guidance remains unchanged, with revenues to grow between 20% -24%, and EBITDA margin to be between 15.5% and 16% for the full year. EBITDA percent for the first half of the year was 16%.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

Some of the key factors expected to influence second half profitability are the pace of improvement in truck production in North America, the rate of decline in demand in China, and the performance of the global supply chain. We now expect earnings from joint ventures to be up 10% in 2021, compared to our prior guidance of down 5%. Stronger than expected demand in China truck and construction markets, especially in the second quarter, is the primary reason for the increase in our forecast. Joint venture earnings are expected to ease in the second half of the year, with industry truck sales expected to decline following the broader adoption of the new National Standard VI on highway emissions regulations in China in July. We also anticipate the softening of demand for construction equipment coming off all-time high levels in the first half of the year.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 21.5%, excluding discrete items, down from our prior guidance of 22.5% due to the mix of geographic earnings. CapEx, capital expenditures were $125 million in the quarter, up from $77 million a year ago, and we expect our full year capital expenditures to be at the high end of our range of $725 million-$775 million for the full year. We returned $869 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the second quarter, bringing our total cash returns to $1.48 billion for the first half. Excuse me for my dry throat. To summarize, we delivered strong results in the second quarter despite continued supply chain constraints and elevated costs. Demand currently exceeds supply in a number of important markets, pointing to strong demand for our products into 2022.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

I want to thank our global employees for their ongoing commitment to meet the needs of our customers while delivering solid financial performance. We continue to extend our leadership position through advancing the technologies that power the profitability of our customers today and will continue to do so for some time to come. This sets the company up to further increase the earnings power of our core business while we continue to invest in a range of new technologies and develop new partnerships that position the company for additional growth. Our strong balance sheet focus on improving performance cycle over cycle and consistent cash flow generation ensure that we can sustain important investments for the future through periods of economic uncertainty and distribute excess cash to shareholders. Thank you for your interest today. Now I'll turn it back over to Jack.

Jack Kienzler
Jack Kienzler
Executive Director of Investor Relations at Cummins

Thank you, Mark. Out of consideration to others on the call, I would ask that you limit yourself to one question and a related follow-up, and if you have additional questions, please rejoin the queue. Operator, we are now ready for our first question.

Operator

At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for the questions. Our first question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Jamie, you may ask your question.

Jamie Cook
Jamie Cook
Analyst at Credit Suisse

Hi. Good morning. A nice quarter. I guess, Tom, a couple more strategic questions. Just on the Cummins Filtration business, can you remind us where the margins of this business are and just your thoughts on timing, and what this business could achieve as a standalone public company versus being part of Cummins? Is it more likely that this asset would be interesting to someone else? I guess my second question, I appreciate a lot of the color that you spent on New Power and some of the relationships that have emerged. I'm just wondering, as you're thinking about this business today, a lot of the growth obviously has been organic.

Jamie Cook
Jamie Cook
Analyst at Credit Suisse

Is there an inorganic opportunity here within New Power Systems, over the next sort of 12 to 18 months that could potentially perhaps accelerate where this business would go longer term in terms of earning a profit, et cetera, or in technology? Thanks.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Thanks, Jamie. Good morning to you. Let me start with your Filtration question first. The answer is that the profitability of Filtration is pretty much in line with the components business. The segment and the business are very similar. The strategic logic is simple. It's a great business, by the way, very profitable, great cash flow, a terrific leadership team, and we've done a lot of improvement in that business over the last few years, which has really improved its financial performance as well as its operating performance. We feel like it's operating on all cylinders really, just for an engine analogy there. The challenge is that looking forward, the opportunities to grow shareholder value look primarily to us in diversification.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

The number of technology innovations for the truck business or for our end markets look like they're limited in front of us, whereas the opportunities to take that technology platform and global footprint to other filtration segments look significant. When we think about using our shareholders' capital to invest in those other segments, the logic isn't as clear. What is clear, though, that the company has come to a size and performance level now where we think it can stand on its own, or it could be part of another bigger company that plans more diversification in other end markets. We are looking at all those options. We're exploring everything from a sale to a spin to some other kind of strategic option. What we want to do most of all, though, is realize value for Cummins shareholders.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

We know that when we're the best owner and can make the most of the assets, we're going to do that. When we're no longer the best owner, we need to confront that too. That's what we're trying to do here, is just create value for shareholders and be direct about it. Again, the business is doing great. The management team is outstanding. We're really proud of the achievements of that business. We just think it can operate separately from us more effectively going forward. With regard to New Power, thanks for your comments on the strategic milestones. We have achieved a lot already, we are exploring organic, inorganic partnership options all the time. It is such a fast-moving area. There's so much development to do in infrastructure, just the product technology, the availability of fuel.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

There's so much to do to decarbonize the automotive industry, no less all the other commercial industrial industries that we're in, that there's no lack of potential partnerships and opportunities. We are, though, scanning always for inorganic options too. As you know, some of the valuations were elevated to a point where they were really just almost silly. That said, that isn't always true now, and we are always scanning for acquisitions that we think can better position us from a scale point of view. You heard me mention that in our battery electric section, that there is a scale advantage to be gained both in hydrogen and electric. If we can get enough volume on some of those products, we can drive down costs significantly.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

That depends in part on whether the technology is viable in the application or not. That's why we're doing so much focus on what are the first-mover markets and where can we actually get scale. Then if we can do that and an acquisition can help, we'll do it.

Jamie Cook
Jamie Cook
Analyst at Credit Suisse

Okay. Thank you. I appreciate the color. I will let someone else ask a question.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

All right.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Ann, please proceed with your question. Ann, your line is live. You may please proceed with your question.

Ann Duignan
Ann Duignan
Analyst at JPMorgan

I'm sorry. I hit mute, but I didn't see it didn't work.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Hi, Ann.

Ann Duignan
Ann Duignan
Analyst at JPMorgan

Apologies. Maybe a little bit more color on JV income. I know in your comments you said that most of the raise in the JV income was on the back of Q2 China performance. Just beyond that, maybe you'd walk us through the JV income and maybe a little bit more color on India JV income and fully consolidated, just what you're seeing there from the fundamentals. That would be helpful. Thank you.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO at Cummins

Thanks. We delivered about just over $300 million of JV income in the first half of the year, which was up from $244 million a year ago. We're expecting that first half of performance to drop off between 30%-40%, with the midpoint of the guidance, we're down to just under $200 million of earnings in the second half of the year. We have started to see some slowing orders for both construction and truck. It's too early to say yet with absolute conviction where we'll end up for the year, but that's our latest forecast. In India, underlying demand, we think, is robust, but it's been very complicated there with the COVID situation. Yes, we think India earnings should improve. China, of course, is a bigger contributor across.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Jerry, you may ask your question.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning, everyone.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Hi, Jerry.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Hi. Really nice to hear about the Sinopec partnership. I'm wondering if you'd just give us an update on what the order bookings for electrolyzers were for you folks in the quarter. If you can, just talk to us about the size of that pipeline, and when do we expect the additional bookings as we look out. Thanks.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Jerry, we haven't reported bookings from electrolyzer markets. What I can do, though, is take that in, something you'd like to see, and start to see if we can publish that data, but we have not been doing that. I can't really answer your question on bookings for the quarter. What I can say is that, as I mentioned in my announcement, that the project that we've got planned with Iberdrola in Spain for the fertilizer will be the largest of its kind. We are seeing significant ramp-up already, especially in Europe. That's where in Europe, there's the combination of low-cost renewable power combined with European money supporting projects that decarbonize industrial uses of hydrogen, is the primary driver of demand. We see some of that now beginning to form in China. Same idea, decarbonizing industrial uses of hydrogen.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

There's already big consumers of hydrogen. People already buy a lot, but it's produced using natural gas through SMR, and this supply chain, this green hydrogen supply chain, takes renewable power through a PEM electrolyzer like ours and then makes the hydrogen low carbon or zero carbon. That's the biggest drive for electrolyzers today.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, thank you. I'm wondering on the hydrogen truck announcement with Air Products. Can you just talk about your anticipated business model on initial hydrogen truck orders? Is it going to be primarily retrofit, or are there any OEM partnerships that you can talk about? How's that business model evolving versus your traditional powertrains?

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Yeah. We think the business model is going to be very similar. These are not retrofit vehicles. These are vehicles which will be built for a purpose to have fuel cell electric vehicle powertrains. As you'd guess, the big development area there is to have an electric infrastructure in the truck already, and then you can put the fuel cell in and take advantage of the electric powertrain or the electric infrastructure in the truck. That's still under development. Most of the trucks that we put out now, the electric infrastructure is either a prototype version or has not been fully productionized yet. I'd say our early versions will still be that. Truck makers are electrifying vehicles at a reasonably rapid rate, at least in relatively small volumes. We expect those platforms to improve over time.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

We will be forming partnerships with OEMs to deliver those trucks. My view is that the reason you haven't seen more partnerships already is there just isn't very much demand. Everyone's trying to figure out what to do with their scarce engineering resources. Do I use them on developing advanced diesel, renewable natural gas, electric, fuel cell electric? Since I can't do all at once, which ones do I do first, second, and third? We believe that truck makers will be ready to work with us on fuel cell vehicles when there's demand. That's why we're excited about an end user like Air Products. High quality company, knows hydrogen really well, wants to make their fleet fuel cells. I think that's going to increase truck makers' interest in trying to figure out how to fulfill this order.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Thanks, Tom.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Yep.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

David Raso
David Raso
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hi, good morning. Trying to think about the supply chain and your ability to react to it with pricing. When you look at the second half of the year, and you sort of made the comment we should expect continued constraints through the end of the year, what are you hearing from the supply chain about the early part of 2022 that makes you feel more comfortable, and your ability to price into that market in 2022?

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President and COO at Cummins

Yeah, David, Jennifer here. I'll comment a little bit about what we're seeing right now. As you heard from Mark and Tom, and is happening across the industry, supply chain and really ramping up to keep up with the demand we see in both first fit and aftermarket has paced our ability to supply. Our teams have done a phenomenal job working closely with customers and suppliers to minimize that impact and to deliver the results that we did in the second quarter. We see that easing in many places quarter-over-quarter, so improving through the back half of the year and into 2022. Microprocessors, like others in our industry and other industries, continues to be the biggest constraint. Our demands are relatively small in the broader picture of microprocessor supply, and we had expected to see some improvement in June.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President and COO at Cummins

With COVID in Malaysia, that's delayed slightly, but that, we think, will ease in the second half of the year. We're seeing improvement in the second half in markets as we see the supply chains ease. From a price perspective, right now we're anticipating our price to cost to be 30 basis points favorable for this year. That is down from 40 basis points-50 basis points positive in our prior guidance, really because of those increased costs that we're seeing in materials, logistics, and premium freight. We are working to mitigate that with some of our contractual things on the material side, hedging, and also looking at pricing and surcharges where possible in first fit and aftermarket.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President and COO at Cummins

We won't comment more on 2022 at this point, but we do expect to see some improvements, both in costs coming down and getting some more recovery into the second half of the year.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Steven Fisher
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to follow up that discussion about some of the costs. I know we talked about $105 million of costs in the first quarter related to logistics, and it sounds like they're coming down a little bit. Wondering if you can quantify that, what you experienced in the second quarter and where you see that going in the next couple of quarters.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President and COO at Cummins

Yeah. We did see those costs come down slightly in the second quarter. Our Engine Business cost improved more, but we saw some increase in the components in the Power Systems Business due to some issues that came into that business. We do expect that to improve again each quarter in the second half of the year. Overall, though, we're projecting $295 million in incremental logistics costs for the full year, which is $105 million more than our prior guidance, just based on what we're seeing.

Steven Fisher
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Okay. That's very helpful.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Just maybe just to say one more word about that. I think, like a lot of companies, the continued outbreaks of COVID around the world and now the Delta variant, just keep throwing more curve balls into the system because we see labor shortages, we see other things. Some of these costs, as Jen mentioned, we'd expected it to go from $100 in the first quarter to $30 in the second quarter and then be gone. Now we're talking about almost $300 million for the year. I want to be clear, that's a big hit to what we had really generally expected. The thing I guess I wanted to highlight is that our company continues to earn good margins despite that, by finding other ways to do it.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

We've been able to price in the aftermarket, and we still have a big opportunity going forward in that, where, as Jen said, we'll be able to add material cost adjustments contractually as we move forward, roll forward in the quarter. Just the sheer effort by our teams to get products out at the least cost as we can, I think, and in fact, so therefore we get revenue up, which improves our incremental margins in the plant. I guess we're kind of running up a down escalator, if you will, and doing a decent job of it. As those things start to get better, and even in the markets where we're still seeing disruptions, our supply base gets better at operating under the same lousy conditions if they stay stable. Even stable lousy is better than changing all the time.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

All of them are doing better, we are seeing improvements. It's just wherever the new flare-up is where we're seeing the cost being driven.

Steven Fisher
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Makes sense. Thanks, Tom. Just maybe a follow-up on China. I know you're anticipating the weakness in the second half. I'm wondering if you're sensing any policy tides turning more positively there in a bigger picture that may influence infrastructure spending and demand for trucks and construction equipment that might make your second half weakness somewhat of a lagging indicator, actually.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Yeah. It's a good question. As a Chinese policy prognosticator, I would be, of course, fired immediately. I'll just say this, that I believe, based on my conversations with government officials there, that they are concerned about where the economy is and are going to continue to try to figure out ways to boost economic activity, especially given what's happening internationally to demand. I do think it's entirely possible we'll see government responses to try to keep business moving during this time. To your point, that might offset some of what we see as sort of structural issues like the changing of the emission standards and the price increases of trucks. The signals aren't evident to us yet, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. We've been talking about this all year. We've called this wrong before.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

We've said China's going to fall off a lot, then it hasn't. We've said the reverse, China's going to grow a lot, then it fell off some. What we think is that, generally speaking, with this emissions change, prices are going to go up. People bought a lot of trucks last year, second half of last year, first half of this year. We see diminishing demand, and not just trucks, also excavators. We see diminishing demand as the most likely expectation, and we are beginning to see signs of that. Even if the policy started to change now, I think we'd still see some demand drops in at least the third quarter and the fourth quarter until those things start to take effect.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President and COO at Cummins

Well, I'll just add, we feel really well-positioned with the products that we're launching in China this year for the NS VI emission. As that does take effect and customers start to buy, we think we have really good products out there that will position us well in the market. Of course, we also have some outgrowth in the components business with both after-treatment and transmissions that we'll start to see increasing there. We're feeling good about where we are in that market.

Steven Fisher
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Perfect. Thank you both.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Ross Gilardi
Ross Gilardi
Analyst at Bank of America

Good morning, everybody. Can you hear me okay?

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Yeah, Ross. How you doing?

Ross Gilardi
Ross Gilardi
Analyst at Bank of America

Great, Tom. Thank you. I wanted to go back to your hydrogen event that you hosted earlier in the year and the target you had for, I think it was $400 million in electrolyzer sales within five years. Correct me if I have that wrong, but I'm just wondering if all the wins, all the collaborations you've announced, do you already feel like you've got wins in hand that take you to that target within five years? Is there an upside case based on collaborations already announced that takes this to, say, $1 billion in five years? I realize all this is fluid and subject to very unpredictable timing issues and so forth, but it seems like you've got a lot in the hopper there already and just wondering how much visibility you even have on that target at this point.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Yeah, it's a great question, Ross. The answer depends on if I give you the answer from a CEO of a 100-year-old engine company or from a new startup. The CEO of an old engine company says we don't have the orders in hand yet, because I think of orders as actual orders. To your point, though, we project that the sum of these partnerships and where we see this decarbonizing of industries using hydrogen already will take our demand significantly over our estimate we gave at the Hydrogen Day. Again, the orders aren't in hand. They depend on European money and all these things, all of which has been promised, but is not all done. Right? The same thing in China. There's projected policy investments that will encourage green hydrogen, but the orders aren't there yet.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

That's why when you ask, "Do you have orders in hand?" The engine guy says no. If you ask me as the CEO over New Power, I'd say I feel really good about it, and I think we're going to exceed our target significantly.

Ross Gilardi
Ross Gilardi
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay. Thanks a lot. That's helpful. Just nearer term, also just based on everything you've announced, when do we see a real inflection in sort of the quarterly run rate revenue for New Power? You kept your outlook unchanged for this year. I realize all these things take a lot of time. Do we see a meaningful step up, do you think, in just sort of the quarterly run rate into next year at some point in 2022?

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Let us hold on our 2022 guidance until we get there. Basically, what we think the revenue guidance is going to be driven by most is this electrolyzer demand. This is the thing that's kind of going the fastest. Everything else is moving. You know that. The EVs are moving, fuel cell trucks are moving, just as I said. To your point, those are all being driven by costs coming down, infrastructure being built, all of which takes a long time. The electrolyzer demand is the thing that's right in front of us. If we can get the projects locked down, all the European money subsidies in place, as you heard from my remarks, we are building the capacity to produce these units. What that means with regard to the quarters of 2022, we have some work yet to do that.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

I'd like to tell you yes, but I think we need to do the work, and we need to see some of these projects locked down before we say to ourselves, it's exactly this quarter and that quarter. Give us some time to work that, but I understand the question well, and we'll definitely give you visibility to that as we get it.

Ross Gilardi
Ross Gilardi
Analyst at Bank of America

Thanks so much.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Thank you, Ross.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.

Rob Wertheimer
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Thanks. I had a couple. Thank you, Tom, for the overview on the New Power stuff. I understand the comments on Old World versus New World. It helps to have the updates.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Right.

Rob Wertheimer
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Can I ask you, I don't know if you're willing to, but if you were to go a step further, could you characterize how strong you feel on your? You have a lot of things you can choose to invest in, whether it's drivetrains, motors, whether it's electrolyzers, whether it's fuel cells, whether it's batteries, et cetera. Are you leading in some of those and sort of keeping up in others? Maybe you can show us where you feel most confident. I had a question on engines as well.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Yeah. That is definitely a longer conversation about each technology area where we're leading and where we're not, which would be significantly disputed by other competitors in the industry, I'm sure, Rob. Let me say it this way. I think that we have a position in the market which has been built over a long time, where we understand the applications as well or better than anybody in the industry. We understand the technical ways in which the applications demand power from the powertrain. That gives us a significant advantage in developing whatever powertrain ends up winning because we understand what it actually has to do.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Second thing I'd say is that we've invested significantly in both hydrogen fuel cells and battery electric powertrains, meaning that we have as much experience, technology, investment as anybody in the industry, not in straight battery cells or that kind of thing, but in the application of those units to commercial vehicles. We're not behind anybody who's in commercial industrial inverted markets. I believe that we are well-positioned, but I also think the industry is moving quickly. As I said in my remarks, where the strategic advantage will be gained will depend not only on the product development, but on where the infrastructure is, what the cost of electricity is versus the cost of hydrogen.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

A whole bunch of other factors that require us and other industry participants to be pretty nimble about how you think about what products are going to win and how advantage is going to be created. That's why I think it's important for us to say we like these investments. We feel like we're at the forefront of all of them, but we also need to keep thinking about where the puck's moving to and make sure we're thinking about how to get advantage. That's a little bit why you heard my comments on investing in low carbon engine technologies, because right now we can produce hybrid diesel engines and hybrid and natural gas engines at significantly lower cost than either BEV or fuel cell powertrains that are significant improvements in both carbon and criteria pollutants.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

That's worth a lot to either, depending on whether you're EPA or a regulator or you're a customer. I know how to use those. They're a lot cheaper. I understand how to fuel them and operate them, meanwhile, they still significantly, they're a positive impact on the environment. That's why I think we're trying to make sure that we stay at the forefront of all these and not just plop down a bet in one big pile on one place, because I think that's not a winning strategy in this market.

Rob Wertheimer
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

All right. That was a helpful answer. I don't know, this will be another tough one, but on the flip side, you guys have the opportunity to provide your expertise and scale in the last stages of diesel engines, and you've done it a little bit, I guess, on medium duty already. How do we, on our side of the fence, think about what happens? You see some of the mandates coming forward in time on auto. That's a whole lot easier to do than on truck, I understand. Should we just expect maybe there's a big announcement and we all kind of guess as to how long the tail end of diesel is? Are you willing to do that? Is there a risk-sharing, or I don't know if you're willing to sort of characterize how those investments may go. I will stop there. Thank you.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

Yeah. Rob, thanks for that. It's a great question. Our view is that the tail end of diesel will be a lot longer than people expected, and that's not because we sit around and hope for the preservation of diesel. It's because the diesel market is so complicated. There's so many applications, 100 years of applications, and it's not like the cars where there's just one application. There's hundreds or thousands, and each one of them has unique demands, and scale is very difficult to achieve in some of these.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

We see the demand for diesel lasting a long time, and that's why this investment in both helping customers that are trying to move out of diesel as well as trying to think through how do we invest in those technologies to decarbonize through renewable natural gas or hydrogen ICE engines or hybrids or other things is a good investment because it allows these applications to move down the carbon curve, have less carbon out, lower criteria pollutants in an engineering way and cost way that's going to drive utilization, and people are going to actually use it and not just delay purchases. We think both for regulators and for customers, that's a good investment. That curve's likely to last a long time. The answer about how long is unfortunately for people that want a simple answer. It depends on how it's complicated.

Tom Linebarger
Tom Linebarger
Chairman and CEO at Cummins

It'll last a really long time if you mean all of them. If you mean like the one truck application that the largest volume, it might happen sooner than the last unusual kind of truck that's a very small volume. The accumulation of all those curves, of all those applications means diesel's around a long time. These new applications, the lower carbon ones are going to be introduced starting now and all the way through the 2030s.

Rob Wertheimer
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Wonderful. Thank you.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question and answer session, and I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.

Jack Kienzler
Jack Kienzler
Executive Director of Investor Relations at Cummins

Very good. Thank you. Thank you everyone for your interest as always in Cummins. We appreciate your attendance and that concludes our teleconference today. I will be available per usual for questions after the call, and I hope everyone has a great day.

Executives
    • Jack Kienzler
      Jack Kienzler
      Executive Director of Investor Relations
    • Jennifer Rumsey
      Jennifer Rumsey
      President and COO
    • Mark Smith
      Mark Smith
      CFO
    • Tom Linebarger
      Tom Linebarger
      Chairman and CEO
Analysts
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