Synopsys Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Synopsys reported record Q3 revenue of $1.057 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $1.81 and generated $422 million in operating cash flow, reflecting broad-based strength across all product groups and regions.
  • Management raised full-year fiscal 2021 guidance to $4.19–4.22 billion in revenue, a non-GAAP operating margin of ~30.5% and non-GAAP EPS of $6.78–6.83, expecting mid-teens revenue growth and over 20% EPS growth.
  • The company set a new long-term target to cross $5 billion in revenue by 2023, upholding a plan for double-digit annual growth and continued margin expansion.
  • Synopsys’ AI-driven design automation solution, dso.ai, on its Fusion platform has achieved real-chip tape-outs and customer endorsements—accelerating design cycles and delivering superior power, performance and area gains.
  • Silicon IP and security businesses remain high-velocity drivers, with double-digit IP growth, next-gen PCIe 6.0 and 800 Gb Ethernet design wins, record Q3 Software Integrity orders, and the strategic CodeDx acquisition enhancing security orchestration.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Synopsys Q3 2021
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Synopsys Earnings Conference Call for 2nd quarter of fiscal year 2021. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. If you should require assistance during the call, please press star followed by 0. Today's call will last 1 hour. 5 minutes prior to the end of the call, we will announce the amount of time remaining in the conference. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Lisa Ewbank, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Lisa Ewbank
Lisa Ewbank
VP of Investor Relations at Synopsys

Thank you, Eric. Good afternoon, everyone, thanks for joining us. Speaking today are Aart de Geus, Chairman and Co-CEO of Synopsys, and Trac Pham, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that during the course of the conference call, Synopsys will discuss forecasts, targets, and other forward-looking statements regarding the company and its financial results. While these statements represent our best current judgment about future results and performance as of today, our actual results are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect.

Lisa Ewbank
Lisa Ewbank
VP of Investor Relations at Synopsys

In addition to any risks that we highlight during the call, important factors that may affect our future results are described in our most recent SEC reports and today's earnings press release. In addition, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the discussion.

Lisa Ewbank
Lisa Ewbank
VP of Investor Relations at Synopsys

Reconciliations to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and supplemental financial information can be found in the earnings press release, financial supplement, and 8-K that we released earlier today. All of these items, plus the most recent investor presentation, are available on our website at synopsys.com. In addition, the prepared remarks will be posted on the site at the conclusion of the call. With that, I'll turn it over to Aart de Geus.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Good afternoon. Synopsys continues to execute very well, delivering record revenue and non-GAAP earnings in the third quarter. Revenue was $1.057 billion, with GAAP earnings per share of $1.27 and non-GAAP earnings of $1.81. We again made excellent progress on our margin expansion goals and generated $422 million of operating cash flow.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Thanks to the hard work of our entire Synopsys team, on a TTM basis, we have surpassed the major milestone we set our sights on a few years ago, $4 billion in revenue and 30% operating margin. Reflecting our strong year-to-date results, the vibrant markets we serve, and technology innovations driving customer momentum in all product groups and all geographies, we are raising fiscal 2021 revenue, non-GAAP ops margin, earnings, and cash flow targets.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

We are well on the way towards our next goal of crossing $5 billion in revenue by 2023, raising our long-term revenue objective to double-digit growth with continued margin expansion. Trac will discuss the financials in more detail. Meanwhile, the market is not only strong, it is transforming in a way that is very positive for Synopsys. Both consumer and business demand for smart everything continue to intensify and grow.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Smart devices intersect many skills and technologies, massive amounts of data to be stored, transmitted, and processed, sophisticated machine learning, and application software specific to each market segment. In this mega trend, semiconductors are absolutely critical. This means not just more chips, but more advanced chips, lower power chips, and chips that can be abutted or stacked for tight implementations. In addition, security and safety are rapidly becoming must-haves, integrating more and more system requirements.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

To make smart everything possible, companies need more automation while transforming the way they approach the development of their systems. New entrants, such as large hyperscalers, increasingly design their own specialized chips, and our business with them is growing rapidly. Other systems companies, such as automotive, increasingly exert heavy influence on their suppliers by specifying key elements of chip performance as well as functional safety and security.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Synopsys is a crucial enabler, and the broad economic pull is now augmenting the traditional Moore's Law push, thus driving more opportunity for us. Synopsys is ideally suited to capitalize on these tailwinds. Over the past five years plus, we've invested heavily in breakthrough innovations that are now driving excellent customer results, and with it, accelerated business growth. Let me highlight three areas: AI and autonomous design, silicon IP, and security. Let's start with AI.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Designing today's most advanced chips with the additional vertical market requirements is among the most difficult engineering tasks, period. As schedule-pressured designers reach the practical limits of human design efforts, we must use the power of AI to automate not just design tasks, but entire segments of the design flow. This is exactly what Synopsys pioneered a year and a half ago, AI-driven autonomous design.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Sitting on top of our Fusion Design Platform, we have built an AI design solution that automatically explores, implements, and optimizes multi-month design efforts in a matter of weeks. Called DSO.ai, which stands for Design Space Optimization using AI, the system has been used by customers on real chips, gone through production tape-outs, and seen silicon back from manufacturing. DSO.ai is breakthrough technology. The results are great. Through this, we've already achieved important customer renewals.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Not only does it literally reduce design times from months to weeks, it improves performance, power, and area substantially beyond what teams of experts achieve on their own. In addition to early industry recognition, as it won a 2020 World Electronics Achievement Awards for Innovative Product of the Year, customer engagements have been exceptional, with early endorsements by Samsung and Renesas.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

In addition, this quarter, a large Asia Pacific provider of advanced chips achieved with one engineer in one month what previously required several experts over three months of manual work. One high-profile U.S. customer using DSO.ai attained better quality of results through a remarkable 20% reduction in power consumption. Next Monday, I'll keynote the Hot Chips Conference, reporting on further great DSO advances and another exciting customer success.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

The impact of this AI brain is greatly leveraged by the powerful system that it sits on top of, our Fusion Design Platform. We pioneered the Fusion concept several years ago by literally fusing together critical segments of the design flow into a single platform. The outcome, best-in-class results in terms of chip speed, power, and area. Today, Fusion Compiler is the only solution available that seamlessly integrates market-leading synthesis, place, and route with timing, power, and physical sign-off all into a single tool.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

It's the fastest ramping new design solution in Synopsys history, already surpassing 500 tape-outs across multiple verticals, including AI, 5G, and high-performance compute, for process nodes from 40 nm down to 3 nm. Notably, our leading foundry partners are already actively leveraging Fusion Compiler towards 2 nm enablement. Our Fusion Design Platform is relied on by the world's largest influential and hard-driving companies.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Production successes include an advanced tape-out by Samsung Foundry for its next-generation chip in 3 nm Gate-All-Around technology. In parallel to autonomous design, another way to reduce risk and speed time to market for complex chips is by using ready-made IP. Our broad market leading IP portfolio is delivering excellent double-digit growth towards what will be another outstanding year.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Demand is very strong, with customers substantially expanding their reliance on us and renewing multi-year commitments faster than ever before. High-performance compute, automotive, and mobile markets are especially strong, wanting both more and more advanced IP. Let me highlight three areas. First, with growth in cloud data, we're seeing high demand for faster high-performance interfaces such as DDR5, PCI Express 5.0 and 6.0, and 800G Ethernet.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

We saw great momentum this quarter with multiple customers selecting our first to market next generation PCI Express 6.0 IP for advanced high-performance compute chips. This is a testament to the success of our PCI Express 5.0 IP, which has nearly 200 design wins. This quarter, we also saw immediate traction for our 400G/800G Ethernet IP solution through multiple design wins that include our 112G SerDes.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Second, the number of highly advanced chip designs across cloud, AI, and 5G application has been growing rapidly. Our large and experienced R&D team remains at the forefront of delivering highly differentiated IP at the cutting edge of technology. In 5 nm, we've secured nearly 400 design wins across 33 customers. This quarter, a significant driver of our physical IP business came from 5, 4, and 3 nm.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Lastly, we're also seeing our customers integrating more security capabilities into their chips. This is driving excellent momentum with our security IP portfolio, including strong demand for IDE IP to secure PCI Express and CXL interfaces, which is a natural segue to Software Integrity. We're doing well with increasing momentum following the significant execution and operational improvements we've made. In fact, Q3 was our highest order quarter ever, and we expect to eclipse our original revenue goal for the year.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

As massive ongoing security threats to business safety and health become almost commonplace, companies are rethinking their protection strategies. It's no longer effective to pick and choose point tools with partial capabilities. Protection now requires a holistic, strategic approach.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Synopsys is at the forefront of this evolution with the industry's only portfolio that features the broadest set of application testing solutions, strategic consulting to assist executives and boards in charting their software security plan, and now an innovative offering that elevates the impact of the Polaris platform. With the recent introduction of Intelligent Orchestration, our Polaris platform can seamlessly integrate and automate security testing within each company's protocols.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

We took another significant step in Q3 with the acquisition of Code Dx. They are the leading provider of application security risk management products that automate and accelerate the discovery, prioritization, and remediation of software vulnerabilities. This combination elevates our capabilities beyond what competitors can provide, a comprehensive, easy-to-adopt holistic solution. On the go-to-market side, we see very good progress from the enhancements we've made.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Our services business, again, did better than planned, with over 20 new logo wins in North America alone. Our win and renewal rates continue to improve, and we're encouraged by the progress we've made. Industry analysts continue to recognize the strengths of our strategy and portfolio. For the fifth year in a row, Synopsys was named the leader in the Gartner Magic Quadrant for application security testing.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Today, we were again recognized as a leader in the Forrester Wave for software composition analysis. So far, I've highlighted three major areas: AI, IP, and security. Let me point out a couple of other innovations that enable this new era. One of Synopsys' strength is focused on the intersection of hardware and software, which is inherently crucial in smart everything. Our hardware-based verification systems continue to generate very strong business with year-to-date 36 new logos and about 150 repeat orders.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

In addition, with innovation spanning both emulation FPGA-based prototyping, we're off to a solid start to a multi-year product upgrade cycle. Over the last two quarters, we introduced new application-specific emulation products. The ZeBu Empower system enables early power analysis to reduce power-related risks, and the ZeBu EP1 is the first of its kind high-performance compute for mobile GPU, CPU, and AI designs.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Both are substantially faster with higher capacity than any competitive solution in the market today, and we're already seeing strong demand and deployments at large influential customers around the world. Q3 was our largest orders quarter ever for our HAPS prototyping product line, fueled by the new HAPS-100. With highest performance and unmatched enterprise scalability, we closed multiple competitive wins in the quarter. With the momentum in both emulation and prototyping, we expect another record revenue year, extending our market and technology leadership.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

With increasing chip and system complexity, growing reliability requirements are now demanding ongoing post-silicon analysis, maintenance, and optimization. Our new Silicon Lifecycle Management platform leverages our leadership in both EDA and IP as it monitors, analyzes, and optimizes chips from design to manufacturing to in-field adjustments. This innovative approach opens up a substantial new TAM for us with business ramping ahead of expectations.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Even at this early stage, we achieved two large expanded renewals this quarter. In summary, Q3 results were excellent, and we are raising our full year objectives substantially. Vibrant markets, compelling innovations, and strong execution position us to continue to increase shareholder and value going forward. While we will provide specific long-term objectives next quarter, we aim to cross $5 billion in revenue by 2023. We are raising our annual revenue growth objectives to double digits with continued margin expansion.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

These results are not possible without our global team. Through the pandemic, they have demonstrated commitment, resilience, and compassion for others while executing very well. Lastly, I hope you and your families are vaccinated, healthy, and staying safe. With that, I'll return it over to Trac.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Thanks, Aart. Good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter results, including record revenue and non-GAAP earnings, reflect strong momentum across the company. For the full year, we are on track to deliver mid-teens revenue growth, an increase in non-GAAP operating margin of more than 200 basis points, non-GAAP earnings per share growth of more than 20%, and approximately $1.35 billion in operating cash flow.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

The combination of the dynamic markets we serve, the powerful impact of our products and solutions on customer results, and our history of strong execution, is the basis for us setting the goal of crossing $5 billion in revenue by 2023. Now to the third quarter results. All comparisons are year-over-year, unless otherwise stated. We generated total revenue of $1.057 billion, up 10%, driven by broad-based strength across all product groups and geographies.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Semiconductor and System Design segment revenue was $969 million, with solid growth in both EDA and IP. Software Integrity segment revenue was $98 million, and we are executing better than expected against our bookings plan for the year. As a result, we project that Software Integrity revenue growth will approach double digits for the full year, and we are solidly on a path to accelerate revenue growth to the 15%-20% range long term.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Moving on to expenses. Total GAAP costs and expenses were $855 million, which includes approximately $15 million in restructuring costs. Total non-GAAP costs and expenses were $720 million, resulting in a non-GAAP operating margin of 31.9%. We are on track to deliver operating margin expansion to approximately 30.5% for the year. Adjusted operating margin for the Semiconductor and System Design segment was 34%, and Software Integrity margin was 9%. Wrapping up the income statement.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

GAAP earnings per share were $1.27. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.81. Turning to cash. We generated $422 million in operating cash flow. We recently completed a $175 million stock buyback, bringing the total to the fiscal year to $573 million. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.53 billion, with total debt of $107 million. For fiscal 2021, we are raising our revenue and non-GAAP operating margin and earnings guidance.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Our targets are revenue of $4.19 billion-$4.22 billion, an increase of $145 million at the midpoint, representing mid-single growth. Total GAAP cost and expenses between $3.431 billion and $3.459 billion. Total non-GAAP costs and expenses between $2.915 billion and $2.925 billion. A non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 30.5%. Other income and expenses between -$6 million and -$4 million. Non-GAAP normalized tax rate of 16%. GAAP earnings of $4.63-$4.79 per share.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Non-GAAP earnings of $6.78-$6.83 per share, representing over 20% growth. Cash flow from operations of approximately $1.35 billion, and capital expenditures of approximately $90 million. Now to the targets for the fourth quarter. Revenue between $1.138 billion and $1.168 billion. Total GAAP cost and expenses between $924 million and $952 million. Total non-GAAP costs and expenses between $805 million and $815 million. GAAP earnings of $1.09-$1.25 per share, and non-GAAP earnings of $1.75-$1.80 per share.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

We will provide detailed 2022 guidance and our updated long-term financial objectives and assumptions when we report next quarter. As part of that discussion, we will also provide an update of our three-year normalized non-GAAP tax rate, which is under review. Although we have not completed the assessment, I want to highlight that the rate may increase in light of the assumptions under review.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

In conclusion, we delivered record revenue and non-GAAP earnings and strong operating cash flow. Based on our excellent results year to date and our outlook for Q4, we are substantially raising our targets for the full year and setting the goal of crossing $5 billion in revenue by 2023. This reflects an increase in our long-term revenue growth objectives to double digits and is also complemented by ongoing margin expansion. At the same time, we will continue to invest to further scale the business and drive increasing shareholder value going forward. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press 1 then 0 on your touchtone phone. You may remove yourself from queue at any time by pressing 1, 0 again. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing numbers. Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to ask everyone to please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to allow us to accommodate all participants. If you have additional questions, please re-enter the queue and we'll take as many as time permits. The first question comes from line of Joe Vruwink with Baird. Please go ahead.

Joe Vruwink
Joe Vruwink
Analyst at Baird

Oh, great. Hi, everyone. I wanted to start on just kind of the recalibrated revenue growth framework. Can you maybe discuss some of the ways the composition of the growth profile is different than it has been in the past? You spent a lot of time in prepared remarks highlighting new products. Is vitality better today than it maybe was in the past? Is this a huge wave of domain-specific, application-specific development? Is that just in magnitude proving to be much greater than it has been in the past?

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Thanks for the question. It's a bit all of that. I think that Synopsys has a high degree of vitality right now, largely as a result of many years of complex investments that suddenly are intersecting in a positive way. You may recall the many times we talked about Fusion Compiler, for example, as sort of a platform to do very advanced design with. Well, once you intersect that with the ability to automate some of that.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Put sort of a brain on top of it. That brain, if it functions well, can do a lot because the Fusion Compiler is a very, very powerful tool. All of these efforts took many years to get to this point, and now they are showing results. What is powerful about showing results is you learn very quickly from the results to get better results and improve.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

This is moving forward very rapidly. Simultaneously, you opened up a very good other comment, which is that a number of efforts become maybe not entirely domain-specific, but certainly more domain sensitive. When you talk about automotive or industrial or other areas that require a certain degree of security and safety, well, those are additional demands that come in.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

In general, if you buy into my picture of saying, "Hey, the whole world is heading towards smart everything," well, all the smarts is applied in those verticals in different ways. Some have a lot of data, others have very difficult data to deal with, and others just require instantaneous fast computing. Those are all a bit different. Yes, there will be an increase for gradual specializations in the vertical markets. At the same time, you can only do that if you have an extremely strong and capable foundation. I think we're certainly in a good spot for that.

Joe Vruwink
Joe Vruwink
Analyst at Baird

Okay, great. That's helpful. Maybe just more of a near term focus question. The guidance for the fourth quarter does imply a pretty big step up just relative to where the implied guidance was last quarter. I'd imagine, you touched on the strength on the hardware. I would assume that's a contributor. Can you just talk about the expected performance of the software business into the fourth quarter? I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Yeah, let me take that one, Joe. The core fourth quarter really reflects a continuing strength across all the businesses. We continue to ramp up on software. Hardware is better than expected, same with IP. You're also seeing a progression on the Software Integrity business as well. It's coming from all areas of the business.

Joe Vruwink
Joe Vruwink
Analyst at Baird

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jackson Ader with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jackson Ader
Jackson Ader
Analyst at JPMorgan

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on DSO.ai. Aart, I'm just curious, can we get a little bit more color on maybe how this is priced on a per seat basis, and whether is it only available to those customers that are on the Fusion Compiler platform, or is it also available elsewhere?

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Well, it's a bit of a complicated question because we are in the first wave of making this successful, and certainly we have built one of its capabilities on Fusion Compiler. Since we have pretty much all of the advanced customers using Fusion Compiler, we have plenty of opportunity to continue with that, and there's a lot of runway in terms of what we can accomplish.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

What I did not mention is that DSO.ai is actually a capability that can also be applied in other domains. Over time, we will use some of that technology in the ability to design better silicon technologies, for example, or in the verification space. There are many directions that we can take with that, and we are strongly engaged now with some of the most advanced design teams in the world.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Maybe the only comment I want to make right now on pricing and so on is that it has already helped us see some growth in renewals, and that is really the direction that we count on for technology that truly has a big impact with our customers.

Jackson Ader
Jackson Ader
Analyst at JPMorgan

Okay. All right, great. A follow-up on the regions. This is kind of the second third quarter in a row that China had this big sequential jump, I'm just curious whether there's a distinct seasonal purchasing pattern in China that might be different from the other regions that you see.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

To be honest, I think for the last 15 years, I've said we've never had really seasonal patterns. It's just one continuous wave. When a certain region is not as big as another, it is more often than not just the fact that the renewals at that time are different than in other regions.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Now, commenting specifically about China, the very, very good results and continued good results are due to a very broad adoption, so by many companies. Of course, many companies that themselves are investing heavily in the future and driving business very hard. It's just a very active region. I expect that to continue.

Jackson Ader
Jackson Ader
Analyst at JPMorgan

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from line of Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Tom Diffely
Tom Diffely
Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for the question. Trac, I was hoping you could give me a little bit more about your view on operating leverage going forward. What do you see as the key drivers, be it segments or product mix or moving to a hybrid office model? Whatever you think is important.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

I think all those things that you touched on, Tom, will help the operating leverage. Really, the two biggest ones are continue to grow revenues, and in fact, we're raising the outlook for revenue growth. Secondly, the things that really move the needle are the investments in the business and making sure that we're investing in the areas that are going to give us the biggest returns.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

You're also seeing strong results in the growth in revenues for this year because of changes and improvements that we've made on the go-to-market side, both on the Semi and the SIG side, Software Integrity side. Those big drivers, as well as a ton of work across the company in so many different areas, including the items that you mentioned, is what is going to help us continue to drive operating margins up over the next several years.

Tom Diffely
Tom Diffely
Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Okay, thanks. That's helpful. Then, Art, I was hoping you could give us a little bit more about the competitive landscape in the IP market and what you're seeing from a pricing point of view, or just an overall competition point of view?

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Well, I think we continue to outperform well others because of both the breadth and the complexity of our platform. I want to say, though, Arm is also doing very well, and we are sort of almost 100% complementary to what they do. What I think we see is, A, that there are many more designs, that there are especially much more complex designs.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

That second comment is important because the value and the cost, but also the necessity for very advanced nodes, has increased. We observe that in multiple ways. A, of course, by what our customers order, but also at the speed with which they absorb it. In some of the numbers I gave in the preamble, you could see that a significant portion of our business is already at 5, 4, and 3 nm.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

These are invariably extremely sophisticated customers that need large, complex blocks and do a lot of design. In general, for us, the market is doing extremely well, and IP has definitely been a shining star at Synopsys for a number of quarters now.

Tom Diffely
Tom Diffely
Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Okay. You're seeing pricing strength then along the way?

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

I don't think that it has changed. The more complex things are more expensive, and customers expect that. Fundamentally, it's a business of almost constant renewals, and I think we must be okay with our pricing because our customers consume what they buy often faster than the timeframe that they allocated, and then they renew. A lot of this business is built on the trust that we will deliver something that they can count on at the right time. A lot of it is very sophisticated repeat business.

Tom Diffely
Tom Diffely
Analyst at D.A. Davidson

All right. Thank you.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Gary Mobley
Gary Mobley
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hey, everybody. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Since you guys mentioned it in your prepared remarks and your press release, hopefully you can give us some additional color on your long-term view of revenue, $5 billion in fiscal year 2023. You can get to double-digit % compound annual growth, depending on what your starting point is. If it's fiscal year 2020, you can get there. Are we talking about double-digit % growth on average for the next two years? In other words, is this a preliminary view of double-digit % revenue growth for next fiscal year?

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Well, I want to be careful about getting into the details on next year, but the math over the next couple of years really is off of the current guidance for 2021, Gary.

Gary Mobley
Gary Mobley
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Got you. Well, that makes it very clear then. Very bullish.

Gary Mobley
Gary Mobley
Analyst at Wells Fargo

I'm surprised it hasn't been asked yet, but you're raising the implied fourth quarter revenue guide or from the previous implied, by 11%. That's obviously perhaps supported by some stronger backlogs. My question is, what is the backlog? Can you share that with us out of the 10-Q filing?

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Yeah, certainly. When we file the Q, the backlog you'll see is $4.7 billion. As we've cautioned you and others on the past backlog, while it's a big number, we'll move from quarter to quarter, right? Depending on what gets renewed and what gets recognized as revenue. I think this quarter is a very emphatic support of that we can raise the year by $135 million at the midpoint and see backlog move the other way. Overall, really, the guidance and the outlook for the year is a reflection of the strong growth in the deals that we're booking and our confidence in our ability to continue to drive out those strong renewals.

Gary Mobley
Gary Mobley
Analyst at Wells Fargo

All right, great. Thank you, guys.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

You're welcome.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer from Griffin Securities. Please go ahead.

Jay Vleeschhouwer
Jay Vleeschhouwer
Analyst at Griffin Securities

Yeah, thank you. Good evening. With regard to that very interesting target now for 2023, a couple of things. Internally, how are you thinking about any structural or capacity or operational changes that you might need to put in place with respect to, let's say, R&D or go to market? Similarly, you have one customer that it's well known as a matter of public record, is fairly consistently over 10% of your revenue, but also has not grown necessarily every period, also a matter of public record.

Jay Vleeschhouwer
Jay Vleeschhouwer
Analyst at Griffin Securities

Does your growth forecast to 2023 necessitate that that large customer keep pace, or can you grow the business to the degree you're talking about, even if that margin lags and you can grow with others or perhaps substantially increase the total number of customers, particularly in Core EDA? I'll follow up with Trac Pham.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

As you well know, we never comment about an individual customer, certainly not from a business point of view. I would just highlight that the most advanced customers, the largest customers in the world, are also far and away the most aggressive in technology adoption, and for a good reason. That is why they are the most successful ones and continue to grow.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

I expect that to be the case for multiple of our top customers. In terms of structural changes, we've had the good fortune to be able to somewhat continually, inside of Synopsys, evolve the structure as technologies either gain strength or are better put together with other products. We've continued to do quite a bit of that under Sassine Ghazi, our COO's leadership.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

I think that has been very effective because not only does it have a high degree of vitality, it also opens up new doors. You've seen, for example, out of the design effort, the SLM, the Silicon Lifecycle Management, suddenly emerge and a number of other capabilities. A great example, of course, is DSO.ai, because it intersects with really the entire company, primarily right now in design, because the results are just fantastic and of very high value.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

We will continue in that vein. On the field side, there too, we continue to optimize for the customers driving different technologies and making sure that the coverage is very good. In many ways, the good news is that despite all the restrictions with COVID, I think we have not really missed any beat in covering the needs of our customers well.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Right now, I would consider that Synopsys is in actually a pretty good spot.

Jay Vleeschhouwer
Jay Vleeschhouwer
Analyst at Griffin Securities

Okay. Trac,

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Jay, can I just emphasize Aart's comment on the restructuring before I get to your question? If you look at the operating margin results over the last few years, we've increased it by eight points since a low of 18, right. There has been a lot of changes across the company. While we have been able to grow the business, to reinvest in the business, we're simultaneously making a lot of that change. There is good opportunity for us to sustain that going forward. It's not a new skill that we have to acquire or develop. This is something that we've been working on for many years now.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

This practice of driving to higher profitability in the next few years is going to be more of the same, but more hard work because we're working off a pretty high base. Now, with regards to customer concentration, I think while the reality is we're still working on finalizing the budgets for next year and the plans for the next couple of years, what we are seeing is really strong strength across the broad product sets and strength across the broad customer base. There's enough confidence in our ability to execute against that we feel willing to go out and commit to $5 billion by 2023. It's very much about base.

Jay Vleeschhouwer
Jay Vleeschhouwer
Analyst at Griffin Securities

Okay. Now for you, Trac, you spoke more positively about SIG performance and outlook. What would seem to collaborate that is there has been, over the last few months, a very significant increase in the number of open software security consulting positions you're looking to fill. Q3 over Q2, and so fairly material, including in particular for Asia, positions related to SIG. Have you seen over the last quarter or so therefore, a material increase in the pipeline for SIG engagements and deployments to warrant that kind of opening of the aperture for SIG hiring?

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Short answer is yes. Let me give you some color about how we're thinking about SIG. If you remember at the beginning of the year, we said that we were going to make some changes and to get the business back on a growth path of 15%-20%. What we said was, for this current year, that we would exit the year at double digits, right?

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

It would take time for the improvements in bookings to translate to revenue, and that by Q4, our goal was exit the year in double digits. We are now, in fact, approaching double digits for the full year and not just exiting. I think the momentum clearly has been progressively improving. I think if you recall the tone throughout the year, I think it was kind of cautiously optimistic.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

We were seeing good progression and impact from the changes that one quarter or two quarter, I think it's too early to call, but four quarters in, it does feel like we really are on the right path, and if we continue executing this, the goal of 15%-20% growth long term feels very doable. With regards to the investments, I think same thing there. We've been progressively feeling positive.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Again, if you remember the commentary on operating margins, we thought we would have to invest more this year and then bring margins down in order to drive growth. In fact, the team's done a really good job balancing the changes in the business while kind of managing their investments to keep margins relatively flat. So the hiring that you're seeing certainly reflects an emphasis of hiring in areas where we can get the most impact.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

It's just a very disciplined approach in terms of hiring. Overall, just good results that supports continued investments in that business. The outlook is very good growth in the next few years as well as margin improvements.

Jay Vleeschhouwer
Jay Vleeschhouwer
Analyst at Griffin Securities

Okay. Thank you both.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Yeah, you're welcome.

Jay Vleeschhouwer
Jay Vleeschhouwer
Analyst at Griffin Securities

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from line of Gal Munda with Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Gal Munda
Gal Munda
Analyst at Berenberg

Hey, thank you for taking my question. The first one is just, I'd like to go back on the bullishness of the full year guidance upgrade, just kind of thinking about to make sure it's clear, it's not just that you were surprised by the amount of hardware orders that you're seeing in Q4, it's the mix of all different business segments that allowed you to raise the guidance by $145 million on the mix point. Is that correct?

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

That's correct. Yes.

Gal Munda
Gal Munda
Analyst at Berenberg

Okay. Awesome. Just as a follow-up to that, it's a big revenue number to raise with one quarter to go. At the same time, when I look at the operating cash flow raise again, it's just as impressive. It implies more than 50% incremental operating cash margin, to that revenue base.

Gal Munda
Gal Munda
Analyst at Berenberg

Can you just talk to me how much of that is kind of sustainable when you look at the operating cash flow incrementals versus any one-offs that kind of play and potentially help you this year a little bit because of the fact that it's a lot higher than the overall operating cash flow margin that you've been generating recently. Thank you.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Yeah, no, overall, both on the P&L and the cash flows, I would characterize it as just very good results across the board as opposed to being driven by one-time items or any unusual items. Keep in mind, the cash flow will be lumpy, just given that, depending on the day, the week that it comes in, it can slip from one quarter to the next or one year to the next. Over the long term, if we continue to drive operating margins up and drive operating income growth, cash flow should track very well to EBITDA, less cash taxes over time.

Gal Munda
Gal Munda
Analyst at Berenberg

Got you, Okay. That's very clear. Thank you.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from line of Jason Celino with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Jason, your line is open. Okay, we'll move on to Pradeep Ramani with UBS. Please go ahead.

Pradeep Ramani
Pradeep Ramani
Analyst at UBS

Hi. Congrats on the quarter and the guide. I just had a couple of questions on, first on the revenue piece. Based on what you're saying, it feels like $1.15 is more of a sort of a new base to think about just looking into October and January. First of all, is that true? If we do the math on your $5 billion target over, let's say, a two-year period, that implies roughly a $1.25 sort of a run rate. My question really is that, can we sort of expect, just given your sort of broad-based growth you're seeing, can we sort of expect a linear progression from, say, $1.15 - $1.25 a quarter over two years?

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

I wouldn't look at it that way, Pradeep. I think you're trying to impart seasonality on the business when there really isn't one. Our business is very much recurring. 9% of the business is recurring, but it could be a little noisy from quarter to quarter. I think that overall, I would look at the trend over a multi-year period and focus on what we're describing for the year. Then within the year, we'll give you very specific kind of feedback on what that quarterly profile can look like. It will vary depending on what the customer requirements are.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

I'd just remind you that last year we had a Q3 and Q4 that was unusual by historical standards. This year has just turned out to be a little bit more linear. So it will vary even within a two-year span. Over time, if you look at the annual trends, it tends to be pretty steady.

Pradeep Ramani
Pradeep Ramani
Analyst at UBS

Okay. On the margin front, the Semis and System Design margins are approaching 34%, 35%. How can we think about sort of the ceiling, if any, to margins on the semi side and sort of the progression of margins? Is it simply backing out from your Rule of 45, the sort of 10 or 11% sort of revenue growth rate you're guiding to?

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

Yeah. I'm sorry, let me start, and then Art can add some color there. We'll continue to look for efficiencies and productivity across all areas of the business. That will include the semi side and Software Integrity. The opportunity is we're spending a lot in total as a company, and so the more dollars that we can put behind projects and initiatives that are going to drive the best returns, we'll continue to do that.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

There's no reason to not maintain that discipline. That served us well the last few years because those investments we've made, and was highlighted in Art's prepared remarks, are a function of the big investments that we've made over the last five plus years. We want to make sure that we're looking at that business as well to be more efficient.

Trac Pham
Trac Pham
CFO at Synopsys

That does not at all imply that we won't continue to invest heavily. We'll do that in a balanced way so that all areas of the business are contributing to good growth and profitability improvements.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Maybe if I can add something, you can look at it both outside and inside. Starting outside, of course, the semi and the systems industries have great opportunities right now because this age of smart everything will actually touch everything. In some areas, going to go very fast and others more slowly.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

It is unavoidable that electronics, and within that, semiconductors and software, will add substantial value to every vertical that it will touch. That is one of the reasons why you see the semiconductor industry do so well, and the fact that in some areas are shortages may have nothing to do with that because it's certain specific areas. In general, it does have to do with the fact that demand is high and higher than ability to satisfy it.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

We expect that the market, in aggregate, over time, will stay very healthy for a while. On the inside, we've always said that you need to have a portfolio of things that are more mature, and with more maturity, hopefully, comes sustainable productivity and margin, and certain things that you have to invest in. By definition, investing means putting money in.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

On balance, I think that since we communicated to you about 2.5 years or so ago that we were going after Rule of 40, we've executed well with that. In many ways, I would consider that episode is now over, and now we have mentioned to you that Rule of 45 is next. The general recipe is clear and the hard work is always hard, but I think we're on a very good track.

Pradeep Ramani
Pradeep Ramani
Analyst at UBS

Thank you.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of John McPeake with Rosenblatt. Please go ahead.

John McPeake
John McPeake
Analyst at Rosenblatt

Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. Nice work, guys.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Thank you.

John McPeake
John McPeake
Analyst at Rosenblatt

Just along the lines, you just mentioned that a lot of your customers are mentioning component shortages. You do have some hardware that has some components in it. I'd just like to ask if you feel like you have secured enough supply of components to ship them.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

At this point in time, the answer is yes. We have sufficient, which does not mean that we don't look for every part to see are there alternatives, what's the status, are there going to be some challenges. Luckily enough for us, we bought the most important parts at the right time in sufficient magnitude that for right now, we're covered. Right now is right now, so we'll keep being very diligent about this. Although I expect that in some areas, the shortages will gradually vanish.

John McPeake
John McPeake
Analyst at Rosenblatt

One thing I've heard is the semi companies don't want to eat their seed corn, so you could be a priority customer because they can't get their designs done without your products.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Well, we're part of a circle. Absolutely.

John McPeake
John McPeake
Analyst at Rosenblatt

Right. I guess my second one is on Gate-All-Around. I did see the tape out at three with a customer. Do you see that as the future? Relative to your AI/ML-enabled solution, things are getting pretty hairy down there. Could you just talk about that, maybe as a driver for different segments of the business, placing out timing? I don't know.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Sure. Well, let me make two comments. First is there have been a number of generations of semiconductor transistors. Planar was for many years the way to do it. The thought to do FinFET was heresy because these were very difficult to do and impossible, and then they became possible, and we moved forward on that.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

The way to look at Gate-All-Around is essentially it's a sophisticated variation on FinFET. A number of advanced customers and manufacturing partners are clearly investing in this and clearly going in this direction. We can absolutely support it all the way from the very beginnings of providing them with tools that allow them to literally simulate and design individual transistors all the way to our design system. Fusion Compiler is completely capable of handling this. That's not going to be a problem.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

The second comment is, what you're referring to when you say new types of transistor is de facto a form of continuation of Moore's Law, meaning still smaller transistors, still less power, still faster speed. While Moore's Law has slowed down, I want to emphasize it is still continuing. That too, for many times, was viewed as impossible, it is absolutely continuing.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

I would amend it with something, though, which is, you also see more talk of now bringing multiple chiplets, or sometimes called tiles, closely together, sometimes on top of other chips and on other pieces of semiconductor. To me, that is a mega booster pack to Moore's Law, because if you cannot do more transistors on a chip, can you do two chips closely together?

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

There are a number of design issues that Synopsys is particularly well-equipped for, because when you do something in two chips instead of one, the biggest problem is the in-between, right? Which is how quickly can you get the signals from one to the other? That's why you want to have them very closely linked. We have a complete 3D IC design system for that.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

As we see people do a combination of still smaller devices, but now also multiple chips closely together, we will gradually see that growing. I'm very encouraged that for the next 10 years, we're still going to see way more complex systems. In our case, the word complex is a good word.

John McPeake
John McPeake
Analyst at Rosenblatt

Just one little follow-up there. You did raise the revenue growth targets to double digits. You don't have to give a number, EDA is assumed to be raised as well inside of that. Is that fair?

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Yeah. Trac sort of alluded to the fact that all of our business are doing well, and so absolutely, EDA is a very big piece of our business, the largest piece. In this context, it's actually the opposite. EDA is doing extremely well for us.

John McPeake
John McPeake
Analyst at Rosenblatt

Excellent. All right. Thanks. Thanks, Aart.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

You're welcome.

Operator

The last question comes from the line of Jason Celino with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Jason Celino
Jason Celino
Analyst at KeyBanc

Hey, guys. Can you hear me? I'll try this again.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Yes. We can hear you.

Jason Celino
Jason Celino
Analyst at KeyBanc

Okay. Sorry about that. Maybe in essence of time, I'll just ask one. You mentioned you're seeing your customers renew faster than they have ever before. I'm trying to understand this a little bit. Is this because of the products and capabilities that you're adding, and they're having to come to the table quicker? Or is this maybe market appetite to move faster, go to market faster, et cetera? Thank you.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Well, the answer is yes and yes, meaning that they see a lot of opportunity because there's a lot of demand for many of these new capabilities. At the same time, because of the continued growth in complexity, they have to rely on more reuse of IP blocks, on more automation in the design process, and we are the ones providing that. I'm super enthusiastic about this decade because I can see the value at the end of this journey for so many vertical markets.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Therefore, the economics from the end markets will come down into the systems semiconductor and in our world, because we are the enablers for that. I'm also super enthusiastic because I feel that many of the investments that we've made have led Synopsys to be at just a unique point of new innovation.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Having had the opportunity to be part of the early beginnings of automation via synthesis many years ago, I would equate what we're doing right now with AI on not a design step, but a whole design flow to be very similar, and therefore, a long-term high impact. It's just very exciting to feel the push of the technology and the pull of the end market, and having those aligned, I think, is just perfect for us.

Jason Celino
Jason Celino
Analyst at KeyBanc

Okay, great. No, that's quite helpful. Thank you.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Thank you. Well, I guess this signifies that we are done for this hour. First, thank you as usual for attending this and for following us. Hopefully, you read out of the discussion and the preambles that we feel that we're in a very strong, solid business situation, but also very excited about the capabilities that are rolling out and their impact on the future.

Aart de Geus
Aart de Geus
Chairman and Co-CEO at Synopsys

Lastly, that we're in a market situation where the markets really need the capabilities we have. That leaves only the word execution to finish on, and that is our job. Thank you very much. I hope you all stay healthy in a time where, unfortunately, the Delta waves are bigger than anybody expected. Please vaccinate and stay safe. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Aart de Geus
      Aart de Geus
      Chairman and Co-CEO
    • Lisa Ewbank
      Lisa Ewbank
      VP of Investor Relations
Analysts