Textron Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
January 27, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Textron reported Q4 revenues of $3.3 billion down from $3.7 billion a year ago and GAAP earnings per share of $0.93 (adjusted $0.94), with $298 million in manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions.
  • Textron Aviation backlog grew by $655 million in Q4 (to $4.1 billion), delivered 167 jets (vs. 132 in 2020) and 125 turboprops (vs. 113), and achieved a 10.1% segment margin in Q4.
  • Defense and Bell won a $143 million AT-6 contract with Thailand, completed the Beechcraft Denali’s first flight and received a $1.6 billion V-22 Osprey support award from the U.S. Department of Defense.
  • Textron Systems generated a full-year segment margin of 14.8% (up 320 bps) in 2021 and in Q4 delivered the fourth unmanned surface vessel to the U.S. Navy and secured an $82 million Shadow logistics support contract.
  • Management reiterated 2022 guidance for approximately $13.3 billion in revenues, EPS of $3.80–$4.00 and $700–$800 million in manufacturing cash flow, while expanding its e Aviation initiative to accelerate sustainable electric flight R&D.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Textron Q4 2021
00:00 / 00:00

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2021 Textron Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Eric Salander, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and we will conduct a discussion of our financial results today. These forward looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

Speaker 1

Revenues in the quarter were 3,300,000,000 down from $3,700,000,000 in last year's Q4. During this year's Q4, we reported income from continuing operations of $0.93 per share. In the quarter, we recorded $5,000,000 in pretax special charges related to our 2020 restructuring plan or $0.01 per share after tax. Excluding these special charges, adjusted income from continuing operations, a non GAAP measure, was $0.94 per share for the Q4 of 2021, compared to $1.06 per share in the Q4 of 2020. Segment profit in the quarter was $310,000,000 down $14,000,000 from the Q4 of 2020.

Speaker 1

Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $298,000,000 in the quarter. For the full year, revenues were $12,400,000,000 up we will be receiving $731,000,000 from last year. Adjusted income from continuing operations was $3.30 per share compared to $2.07 per share in 2020. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $1,100,000,000 up from $596,000,000 in 2020. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Our business closed out the year with another solid quarter. At Aviation, we continue to see favorable market conditions, including improved aircraft utilization, low pre owned inventory levels and strong customer demand. Order activity remained very strong with backlog growth of $655,000,000 in the quarter and $2,500,000,000 for the full year, resulting in a $4,100,000,000 backlog at year end. As a result, we delivered aircraft on a more linear trend through the year, which improved manufacturing efficiency and cash flow generation.

Speaker 2

Reflecting this improved operating environment and strong Aviation achieved a segment margin of 10.1% in the 4th quarter. For the year, we delivered 167 jets, up from 132 last year and 125 commercial turboprops, up from 113 in 2020. Also in the year, we saw sequentially higher aftermarket revenue on a quarterly basis Moving to Defense, Aviation was awarded $143,000,000 contract for 8 AT-six aircraft, Ground support equipment, spare parts and training from the Royal Thai Air Force. This contract establishes Thailand as the international launch customer for the U. S.

Speaker 2

Air Force's latest light attack aircraft. On the new product front, the Beechcraft Denali completed its 1st flight in November, launching the start of the flight test program.

Speaker 3

At the

Speaker 4

end of the

Speaker 2

year, revenues were down slightly in the quarter, largely on lower military revenue as expected, reflecting the continued wind down of the H-one production program, partially offset by higher commercial revenues. In December, Bell completed the first improvement modifications on an Air Force CV-twenty two Osprey. This effort is part of an ongoing process to upgrade the Air Force Osprey fleet. In January, the Bell Boeing program office was awarded a $1,600,000,000 contract over the next 5 years to support the V-twenty two Osprey currently in service with the U. S.

Speaker 2

Military. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 156 helicopters in 2021, up from 140 in 2020. We also saw solid commercial order activity for the year, reflecting broad based demand. Moving to Textron Systems, we saw another strong quarter of execution that contributed to a full year margin of 14.8%, up 3 20 basis points from 2020. During the quarter, we delivered the 4th we are committed to the U.

Speaker 2

S. Navy after its successful completion of acceptance trials. On the Shadow program, Systems was awarded an $82,000,000 logistics support contract for 2022. On our common unmanned surface vessel platform, we completed file testing related to the unmanned influence sweeping system program, setting up potential for production contract award in the Q1 of 2022. Moving to industrial, revenues were lower in the quarter as we continue to experience supply chain challenges, including order disruptions at Kaltex related to global auto OEM production schedules.

Speaker 2

At Textron Specialized Vehicles, we continue to see a strong pricing environment And steady retail demand. Despite the ongoing supply chain challenges, both businesses saw sequential revenue improvements in the quarter. In summary, there were many items to highlight in 2021 across our segments. In Aviation, strong order activity and customer demand throughout the year drove $2,500,000,000 of backlog growth. On the new product front, we continued our product refresh strategy with the introduction of the Citation M2 XLS and CJ-four Gen 2 aircraft.

Speaker 2

Susta Skykert completed the flight test program with 2,100 hours of flight test activity, and we expect FAA certification in the first half of twenty twenty two. At Bell, we continued our work on the FDL programs. We submitted the proposal for the FLR program in September and the U. S. Army is expected to award the FLR program contract in 2022.

Speaker 2

On FARO, we made significant progress on the 360 Invictus prototype build with 75% of the effort complete at year end. We opened the Bell Manufacturing Technology Center, an innovative proving ground to test and refine technologies and processes across Bell's core production capabilities. Textron Systems, ATEC continue to grow its fleet of certified F-one aircraft in support of increased demand on U. S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps tactical air programs.

Speaker 2

We continued our innovation and development activities with the rollout of the Rip Solium-five prototype vehicle for the U. S. Army and the Cottonmouth ARV for the Marine Corps. Textron Specialized Vehicles, we entered into a strategic collaboration with GM, which will assist our ground support equipment business in the electrification of baggage tractors, cargo tractors and belt loaders for Houston Air Force globally. We also introduced the Liberty, the industry's first PTV to offer 4 forward facing seats in a compact golf cart sized platform powered by a lithium ion battery.

Speaker 2

At Caltex in 2021, we were awarded 8 contracts on new vehicle programs for our hybrid electric fuel systems. Looking to 2022 at Aviation, we are projecting growth driven by increased deliveries across all product lines and higher aftermarket volume. Bell, 2022 represents the beginning of a transitional period as we expect lower revenues related to military production programs, while awaiting a down select and award on the FLAR program. At Systems, we're expecting flat revenue with growth on ship to shore and tactical air programs, offset by lower fee for service volume. In Industrial, we're expecting revenue growth and margin improvement.

Speaker 2

Within Kaltex, we expect increasing volumes from improving OEM auto production. While specialized vehicles, we anticipate improving supply chain conditions and increasing volumes across our products. Earlier in 2021, we launched our e aviation initiative leverage the resources and expertise across our aviation businesses to develop new opportunities in aircraft utilizing electric propulsion systems. In 2022, we plan to expand these efforts and increase our investment in developing technologies to accelerate the shift to sustainable flight, including eVTOL and fixed wing aircraft. With this backdrop, we're projecting revenues of about $13,300,000,000 for Textron's 2022 financial guidance.

Speaker 2

We're we're projecting EPS in the range of $3.80 to $4 per share. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is expected to be in the range of $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 with that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1,400,000,000 were down $201,000,000 from a year ago, largely due to lower aircraft volume, partially offset by higher aftermarket volume. Segment profit was $137,000,000 in the 4th quarter, up $29,000,000 from last year's 4th quarter, largely due to favorable pricing net of inflation of $21,000,000 and improved manufacturing performance. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4,100,000,000 Moving to Bell.

Speaker 5

Revenues were 858,000,000 down $13,000,000 from last year, reflecting lower military revenues, partially offset by higher commercial revenues. Segment profit was $88,000,000 of $88,000,000 was down $22,000,000 primarily due to lower military volume and mix. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $3,900,000,000 At Textron Systems, revenues were $313,000,000 down $44,000,000 from last year's Q4 due to lower volume, which included the impact from the U. S. Army's withdrawal from I'd like to turn the call over to Stan on the segment's fee for service contracts.

Speaker 5

Segment profit of $45,000,000 was down $4,000,000 from a year ago, largely due to the lower volume. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2,100,000,000 Industrial revenues were 781,000,000 down $85,000,000 from last year, reflecting lower volume and mix of $133,000,000 largely in the fuel systems and functional components product line, reflecting order disruptions related to the global auto OEM supply chain shortages, partially offset by a favorable impact of $50,000,000 for pricing, largely in the specialized vehicles product line. Segment profit of $38,000,000 was down $17,000,000 from the Q4 of 2020, primarily due to lower volume and mix, partially offset by favorable impact from performance. Finance segment revenues were 11,000,000 and profit was $2,000,000 Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses and interest expense were each 29,000,000 our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $298,000,000 in the quarter $1,100,000,000

Speaker 2

for the full year.

Speaker 5

In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 4,500,000 shares returning 335,000,000 in cash to shareholders. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 13,500,000 shares, returning $921,000,000 of cash to shareholders. Turning now to our 2022 outlook. I'll begin with the segments on Slide 8 of the earnings call presentation. At Textron Aviation, we're expecting revenues of about $5,500,000,000 reflecting higher deliveries across all our product lines and increased aftermarket volume.

Speaker 5

Segment margin is expected to be in the range of approximately 10% to 11%, reflecting higher volume, favorable pricing and increased operating leverage. Looking to Bell, we expect revenues of about $3,000,000,000 reflecting lower military volume, primarily related to lower H1 production. We're forecasting a margin in the range of about 10% to 11%, largely due to the lower military volumes and continuing high levels of R and D investment. F Systems, we're estimating revenues of about $1,300,000,000 with a margin in the range of about 13.5% to 14.5%. At at Industrials, we're expecting segment revenues of about $3,500,000,000 on higher volumes at Kautex and Specialized Vehicles.

Speaker 5

We're estimating Industrial margins to be in the range of about 5.5% to 6.5%. At Finance, we're forecasting segment profit of about 15,000,000 moving to Slide 9. On a consolidated basis, we're expecting earnings per share to be in the range of $3.80 to $4 per share. We're also expecting manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions to be about $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 which includes an approximately $300,000,000 impact from a change in the R and D tax law beginning in 2022. Looking to Slide 10, we're projecting about $150,000,000 of corporate expense, which includes $30,000,000 of investment in e Aviation.

Speaker 5

We're also projecting about $120,000,000 of interest expense and a full year effective tax rate of approximately 18%. Looking to the other items and turning to slide 11, we're estimating 2022 pension income to be about $120,000,000 up from $30,000,000 last year. Turning to Slide 12. R and D is expected to be about $585,000,000 down from $619,000,000 last year. We're estimating CapEx will be about $425,000,000 up from $375,000,000 in 2021.

Speaker 5

Our outlook assumes an average share count of about 219,000,000 shares in 2022. That concludes our prepared remarks. Brad, we can open the line for questions.

Operator

Of course. And our first question today comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes. Good morning, Scott, Frank, Eric. Nice results. Hey, Scott, maybe you could just describe kind of the level of where you think this jet production or jet production is going to in 2022. And if in the Q4, did you have any kind of challenges from the supply chain that had any jets move into the 2022?

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure, Peter. So as we've talked about, we have been ramping up the production rate. We continue to do that and expect to continue to do that throughout the course of 2022, the backlog has been very strong. We still see robust demand in the marketplace. So I think it remains very favorable from a market We haven't had problems.

Speaker 2

I shouldn't say we haven't had problems. You guys always have to work through supplier issues here and there. But no, we do not have that impact our production rates or impact any 2022 deliveries. The ramp rate continues. We're bringing people on board every month and training and continuing to bring them on our human resources and in our own business.

Speaker 2

We continue to work Suppliers as they meet those ramp rates as well, I think as we look forward, you kind of look, we're coming out of the year with somewhere around a 12 month backlog, we like that. I think that's very healthy for us and I think it's very healthy for our customer, right. So it's really how the business should run. It gives you much better visibility. It allows customers the opportunity to go sell their used aircraft for many of whom were upgrading an aircraft.

Speaker 2

It gives them a lot more time to specify options in interiors and paints and all of the things involved in that process and it allows us Cut all those things into the production line in a very efficient way rather than having a bunch of rework and changes towards the end to accommodate a customer needs. So I think keeping an eye on that 12 months, again, that's kind of for our class of aircraft that makes a lot of sense to us and I think it makes sense to our customers. So as the year goes on and obviously we'll keep a close eye on the demand environment and we'll continue to make adjustments As we see fit, but I think we're very happy with where we are at the backlog levels that we have. I think as I said, it works for us. It makes for a much More efficient, cleaner, easier to operate, more linear business and I think it's been good for our customers as well.

Speaker 6

Okay. Just as a follow-up to that, Scott. It's just is it are you back now do you think get back to the 200 plus jet level on production or should we not really look at it that way just

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I think you should. I think as we've been saying, we think we'll be back to those levels where we were in 2019. And we're probably a little early to guide on our 2023 volumes, But we'll keep an eye on that. But yes, for sure, we're we feel good that we're on track to get back above those 2019 levels.

Speaker 2

And I think you see that in our in the revenue guidance.

Speaker 6

Yes. And just lastly on just CR, if it goes to full year, have you quantified if there's any impact, if any?

Speaker 2

Peter, we really haven't. I mean, we're still kind of going on the basis that the CR is going to resolve itself here probably in the end of February into March. If it ends up being a full year thing, I don't think we have any one specific thing we'd point at. But look, it's not healthy for the industry. It's Not healthy for the government.

Speaker 2

I hope it gets resolved, but we kind of continue to fight through it every day.

Speaker 6

Appreciate the details. Thanks, Scott.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 7

On belt, revenues were down 8% and margins contract 150 bps. How do we think about pension given it should be additive to that As well as R and D and lowering, how does flower factor into that?

Speaker 2

Well, probably due to all the constituents Hard shield, but look, there's no doubt that there's some margin compression at Bell. Operationally, that's driven by the fact that we're We're going to continue to see the H1 program winding down. So you're losing what's been important production volume for us. We will have some offsets there. Obviously, I think we'll have a good year in terms of commercial aircraft deliveries.

Speaker 2

I think the commercial aftermarket will continue to be better, but I think we're going to see some pressures. Military aftermarket is always a little bit lumpy, but it's probably a little bit of a challenge. But most importantly here, As you know, we've been investing very heavily on the R and D side, particularly around FARA and FLRAA. We do expect, given what we're seeing that the U. S.

Speaker 2

Army customer is staying on track with what they've said publicly about the FLORA evaluation process, it's a huge proposal. It's a lot of work on both sides, but they're I think it appears they're making good progress. So I think they're probably On track to make an announcement towards the middle of the year as they've been saying. But I will say what we put in our numbers is, I think a reasonable expectation that this is a huge program and it's going to take a little while for it to actually get under contract and turn into something that has revenue associated Right. So I think we're going to continue to see a pretty high level of R and D in support of that program throughout the balance of most of this year.

Speaker 2

So That's really what's going on operationally. We are without a doubt seeing a mix shift from good margin production volumes, particularly associated with the H1 ramp down with continued high levels of R and D and a sort of slow transition here, even in the event of a far wind to revenue recognition on that program.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you so much. So you mentioned the FLOWRA down select in 2022. My understanding was the expectation was they were going to make that decision By mid year, is that still your understanding?

Speaker 2

It is, Cai. All I was saying in kind of The response to Shiel's question was that I think they're on track. I mean from what we see in the valuation notices and that process that you normally We're working through on a proposal of this magnitude. I think it's heading in that direction. So but there's a difference between announcing who the winner is And actually getting under contract, right?

Speaker 2

I mean, this is a big program, and I think it's going to realistically take some time. And so therefore, I'm expecting that even though the announcement might come quite possibly at the end of Q2, let's say, that Transitioning that into actual being on contract is going to take a little bit of time and our assumption is we're not going to go to disband that team. So we're going to have to continue to do part of the cost share funding to retain that team until such time as we get under contract. Got

Speaker 8

it. And then at Textron, I mean, I know that pricing you mentioned is strong, but did pricing improve in that Quarter versus Q3 and maybe if you can tell us how many price hikes did you have in 2021 and where have you had 1 in wanted

Speaker 2

to Well, I guess the dialogue really, Kaushu, is around price realization, right? So we've for a long time, you're negotiating these deals. So Yes, pricing certainly continued to be strong in Q4. You'll see that in the case, right, about $29,000,000 of positive price. And so well ahead of inflation.

Speaker 2

And yes, we're still continuing to improve on our realized price. And I expect that to continue on this year as well.

Speaker 8

That's great. And then Frank, one for you. So in kind of reading through The release, I think you mentioned that your cash flow numbers assumes a $300,000,000 hit from R and D credit amortization. So you're basically assuming that whereas Lockheed and RTX did not. Is that correct?

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, it looks like different folks are handling this differently. There's kind of some dialogue around the interpretation of what might be capitalized and what might not be capitalized, I'd say that kind of we are on we've taken an approach that is on the more conservative end of things, I think, in terms of looking at the cash impact and have included it in our guide. So it's $300,000,000 as I said, and that would be the kind of the full impact with the kind of larger range of impact associated with how people are looking to assess how this gets implemented.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 9

Hey, Frank, just to stay there for a sec. I understand if you're being conservative in laying out a forecast to all of us. But what did you think of what Lockheed said there? Because they had originally been talking about an impact Similar in percentage terms is what you've laid out here, but now they're saying that,

Speaker 2

it only applies to

Speaker 9

where they've had R and D tax credit in the past. Do you think that's incorrect or it's just still being evaluated and that may be correct?

Speaker 5

I think there's dialogue in the tax community as I understand it around the interpretation of this. I think we're all hoping it gets fixed as the real answer that we're kind of there's a lot of dialogue around. This is not good for companies investing in R and D and the focus of the nation on continuing to invest kind of for the future. And so we're all hopeful it gets fixed, but there are different interpretations that are being discussion of tax community around the application of it.

Speaker 2

So look, no, I mean, all we're trying to be is transparent, right? So I mean, if they do the right thing and I mean, look, this is ridiculous, right? I mean, the whole purpose of the R and D tax credit is to incentivize R and D. And by not allowing you to do that, that sort of Defeats the whole purpose for this thing. So we're going to we're transparent.

Speaker 2

We're giving you guys the numbers. The day a bill passes that repeals it or removes it or some interpretation, we'll immediately add that to our guidance.

Speaker 9

But it can still be considerably smaller even without a bill that actually changes the law and where it's just a different accounting interpretation?

Speaker 5

Well, look, I think you'd have to that would have to get resolved as we look at what our cash tax payments are and how we would like how we would handle that and the risk associated with that, right. So I'd say that kind of as we sit here today, our expectation is that if the R and D tax credit does not get changed completely that this will be our approach to the implementation of what is the law today.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thanks so much. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Robert.

Speaker 10

Scott or Frank, I'm not sure who this is for. What you said so far about the Aviation outlook sounds pretty positive for margins, not just this year, but the future year as well in terms of pricing and And a steadier production rate, longer lead times. What's your latest prognosis on incremental margins maybe over the say 2, 3 year period?

Speaker 2

Hello, Robert. We've always said that these conversions ought to be somewhere in that 20%, 25% and I think that's what we're realizing. You look at the guide, you're getting a nice revenue increase and good leverage to the bottom line associated with that.

Speaker 10

So we're moving towards the top end of that range. You say the fair assumption with this pricing coming through?

Speaker 2

Well, I think as time goes on, we'll continue to see the margins expand if we continue to see this kind of revenue growth because I do think we'll be able to convert in those 20%, 25% incrementals.

Speaker 5

Yes, there There's new programs coming in like SkyCourier and Denali over time and things that have impact on things. So there's some variability As we look at mix, but generally as Scott said, kind of it's consistent with what we've been talking about.

Speaker 10

Yes. And then as a follow-up on the in the industrial division, relative to what you said 3 months ago, have things got any better on the supply chain?

Speaker 2

I think they're kind of where they were. I think we're expecting that we'll see a little bit of The bad news of this omicron is if you looked into our factories, our supplier factories, the last week or so of December into January, you saw this crazy high spike, which clearly has impacted operations. The good news here is we're seeing that line of cases come down just as dramatically as it went up. But I think realistically speaking, we'll see some of the impact of that trickle through here in the Q1 or so. But I think as we progress through the year, it's certainly our that we'll see that improve and that's what we've reflected in the guide.

Speaker 2

So you have probably a slower realization of that and certainly in the Q1 going to the second, but all in all, we'll see improvement as we go through the year.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Thanks. So you touched on Bell and the pressure there from the military. If you were to happen to not win FLORA or FARA, what is the longer term outlook for the military business at Bell?

Speaker 2

Look, if you don't want any new military programs, that's a challenge for the military program for sure. But look, we talk a lot about Florida, and I certainly don't want to underestimate the impact and the importance of Florida to the future of Bell. That's something we've been working very hard at, and we think we're in a good place, but obviously it's a competitive program. But as you noted, we're also working on FARA, we've got high speed VTOL. I mean, there's a number of investments we're making to there are obviously you've got maritime strike in the Navy and our programs in the Marine Corps.

Speaker 2

There's certainly a lot of other opportunities beyond FLARA, but FLARA is an important program for us for sure.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thanks. And Frank, can you obviously highlight the R and D impact? What is your working capital assumption kind of underlying that $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 free cash flow forecast? And then Yes, I guess, looks like capital deployment, you're talking about maybe buying back $500,000,000 $600,000,000 in stock.

Speaker 11

But Based on that, you're going to be kind of half the time levered by the end of the year. So how are you thinking about kind of longer term capital deployment and where you want the balance sheet to be? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Yes, sure. So, from a working capital standpoint, we're looking at kind of flattish working capital ex the tax number, which does impact working capital, but kind of as you look at the other elements from an inventory payables receivables, things like that, Yes. We think we will likely see a little bit of inventory growth associated with ramp and the commercial businesses, but we think we can offset that in other places. And so kind of continued good working capital performance. In terms of cash flow, cash deployment remains the same.

Speaker 5

Certainly, kind of we look at Obviously, R and D and investment back into the business, we outlined that. So we've modeled in kind of some number for acquisition activity that we always do, but the rest of the free cash flow would go towards share repurchase activity. Kind of the number in our model in terms of share count actually has our share repurchase a little bit back end loaded. So kind of we're roughly thinking about share repurchase that is in line with the from a dollar standpoint with the amount of repurchase activity that we undertook this past year.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes, good morning.

Speaker 2

Hi, George.

Speaker 12

Scott, last year at this point, you projected aviation revenue at 4.5%. So you guys are quite good on that. But your projected profitability of 5.5%, we wind up with 8.3% and the incremental is effectively like 60%. For your current projection, you're in line with what you're saying, 24% incremental. But my question is, what caused last year to be so good, particularly the Q4 where revenues were down and profit was way up.

Speaker 12

And so is there upside to that 10% to 11% margin guide for this year?

Speaker 2

Well, George, I mean, the comparables going back to 2020, obviously, 2020 was a pretty extraordinary year. So you would expect to see a lot better overall performance in the 2021 as things kind of return to normal. So that's why I think we're back into that world where you're talking about these kind of 20%, 25% incrementals on the business. We continue to be in a strong pricing environment. We've been in a strong pricing environment all year, which obviously is helpful.

Speaker 2

And again, as I mentioned, having the strength of a backlog that we haven't seen in a very long time, it really has helped to run the plants much more efficiently and effectively. So I think we have all those things are tailwinds to us. But we'll we got our way into 2022 here and keep our heads down and keep Delivering and if we can drive additional margin, obviously, we have a reason in the world to do that.

Speaker 12

Okay. And one just one quick one, Frank. How much was aftermarket So up in the quarter.

Speaker 5

Aftermarket on a year over year basis was up at Aviation 20% year over year and sequentially was up 6%.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thanks very much. Good numbers.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thanks.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hey, Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Vince.

Speaker 13

Scott, just wanted to tease out how much visibility you have right now in the business jet marketplace With the incredible backlog growth you've seen this year and your kind of delivery skyline that you have planned, Do you think you could work any of that backlog down this year by the end of the year? Or could backlog stay flat? Could it grow? Do you have any sense of how hot the market is?

Speaker 2

Well, I would say the market is pretty hot, but and you see that again in Q4 where we got It's kind of 1.7 sort of numbers. So that's good. All I would say, Pete, is I don't I think we like that visibility of kind of being able to look at it over a month And understand that skyline of deliveries by models. And again, it's so important to us to be able to work in an efficient way. Look, our salespeople are out there selling hard every day.

Speaker 2

And so if we get the visibility where we start looking at being out of book out even further into the future, then we'll look at continuing to increase production rates. But I don't think we want to do something stupid and try to go Radically accelerate production rates and then burn down backlog and then you're back where you were, where you don't have that visibility and don't have those efficiencies. Again, I don't think it's healthy For the industry, the customers or our company. So I think that's sort of what we'll keep our eye on, right? Is that those timelines we have kind of come back to normal historicals in terms of what a customer's expectation is from the time that they start a process of buying and when they want to take a delivery for the aircraft.

Speaker 2

And I think we're in a good place right now and we should keep it there.

Speaker 13

Okay. Appreciate the color. And just one last one. Can you just where are we in the commercial helicopter cycle? And will the 525 be certified this year?

Speaker 2

Well, look, I think the commercial helicopter is as we've seen similar to what we've seen in aviation, we've seen a nice Solid demand. We saw good delivery increases. We'll see that again in what we've guided you in the 2022 numbers. Look, 525 clearly has been a disappointment for us in terms of our ability to get that through certification. I think there has been a lot of good work done this year.

Speaker 2

I think we're on a good path. You've we've seen some of the stuff that's been out there in the press where we're in addition to working the basic cert, we're starting the ICE certification because so many of our customers will need that capability. So we're paralleling those tasks right now. And yes, certainly we expect to get that certification done this year.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Melius. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Good morning. Scott, would you be able to parse out the demand within Aviation perhaps Across the portfolio where you see the strength and then also talk about the different types of customers, the corporates versus the individuals versus the lead operators?

Speaker 2

Well, look, I think I guess the color I could give is to say that Jet leads the way. That's been the strongest demand environment. I would say that the demand is very robust in both the individual buyer, whether that's corporation or high net worth individual, as well as obviously the fractional market is Very strong right now. So we're seeing a lot of demand through our partnership with NetJets. So again, look, jets Virtually across the board, in terms of jet models from entry level all the way up through longitudes, it's quite strong.

Speaker 2

Turboprops is also strong, but not as strong as Jeff's. And I would say part of that reason is, as you guys know that Our jet business is usually the biggest chunk of that market is North America, where we see very robust demand. A smaller part of that market is outside the U. S. They're still a little bit behind.

Speaker 2

There is demand there, but it's not quite as robust as North America. When you look at turboprops, specifically when you look into the King Airs, for instance, that's a market that for us historically is stronger outside the U. S. Than inside the U. S.

Speaker 2

So it's strong, but frankly, it's marginally led right now by North America because again, the North American recovery has been So strong. So we have seen that outside of the U. S. Market picking up and are seeing that demand, but and so it's it is better than 1 to 1. It's good.

Speaker 2

But I would say in terms of color, JETS is certainly leading the way.

Speaker 14

Okay. And then just quickly on the specialty vehicle side, Wanted to ask how the inventories are. I think you touched on it. But with the supply chain issues, it gets a little obscured. Is The takedown or the sell through of snowmobiles has been good this season and what's the outlook for the dirt market?

Speaker 2

Yes, it is. Look, the demand environment is very strong, guys. The only challenge we have is the If I can get more parts and build more machines, the stuff sells through the market. It's our only frustration right now is being able to get more stuff out there to dealers. I'd say, look, on a year over year basis, we actually saw improved volumes through the tracker channel, which is terrific, but it could have been even better if we can get more machines out there.

Speaker 2

So this is most certainly not a demand problem. It's a supply chain problem.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Christine LeWag from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 7

As the backlog builds in Aviation, can you talk about how you're managing potential inflation risk, especially if we see raw materials and labor prices at elevated level. I mean, how much is a straightforward pass through in terms of escalation clauses? And how much would you try to offset with lower costs? Look,

Speaker 2

obviously, our intent here is to keep pricing at inflation a positive number. And so we do certainly see inflationary pressure. I think The world is seeing that come through to one degree or another. Some business have more long term agreements than others, which I'll cushion that a little bit. Some are more exposed to logistics and transportation costs, which are virtually immediate, but we've responded to a lot of that.

Speaker 2

We're in the businesses where that's a problem. We put freight surcharges out there right away. So we're very, very conscious of the inflationary pressures and have, I think, good plans and actions around prices and surcharge to try to more than offset that.

Speaker 7

Thanks. And maybe on Bell, with the program roll off and with FLARAA, if you win that contract upside is really further down the line. Is there a path back to a 12% Bell margin in the next few years?

Speaker 2

Well, okay, I don't know. I won't go beyond probably 2022 guidance, but we've been saying for a very long time that we expect that was sort of a 10% to 12% margin business. We've obviously been well above that as we had a lot of strong multiyear production programs where we could drive efficiencies And gain the benefits of that, but on the other side of that coin, when you see some of the ramp downs, it's more pressure To be in that range and that's where you see us today. So clearly some of these programs, even when you talk about EMD programs of a magnitude like Fluara, There's still pressure when you unwind some of these large production programs. But again, I think it's Too early obviously to think about how we would guide into 2023 or 2024.

Speaker 2

It will depend a lot on mix. There opportunities out there for increased production on some of our military programs. We don't know what the aftermarket is going to look like on some of those programs. So we got to kind of adjust every year. But I think 10% to 12% is What we said for a long time and I think that's probably the reality of where that business will be.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning guys. Scott, I was wondering if you'd share some of your thoughts on eVTOL. We've seen some of the publicly traded EBITDA companies just get crushed. Boeing just dropped about $500,000,000 into WISC. And I mean arguably you're probably one of the more experienced companies that this given that you do have a vertical lift business, you do deal with kind of smaller vertical lift aircraft.

Speaker 3

And just curious what your sense is on the market and how you think about it for Textron?

Speaker 2

Look, Ron, I think that I think we're in a better position than anyone to go execute on these market opportunities. We're doing that. I think the advantage for us is that we have already in the company the infrastructure and the talent to do these sorts of things. I don't need to make announce a $500,000,000 investments. I think we've indicated you guys we're going to probably have $30,000,000 that we're putting in this year, but I can spend my money on actual engineering capability and designing stuff.

Speaker 2

I don't need to be building hangers in office spaces and test laboratories and all that sort of stuff. I have all Right. So we have a lot of technology leverage that comes out of our flight control side of Bell that's been doing tiltrotor, which is kind of what these guys look like are our baby tilt rotors. We know how to design and build and certify Part 23 aircraft. So Look, I just think our approach on here is spend the money we need to spend to invest in the technology.

Speaker 2

We've talked before The battery, the battery density issues, I think you have to have a practical product. And so we're working with a lot of different angles and batteries Cell suppliers to try to understand this thing. There's a number of things we're looking at to strengthen, frankly, that part of our business. I don't know how we don't really need to strengthen the part of our business that That knows how to do tilt rotors, that knows how to do fixed wing aircraft in that weight class and that certification type, but we do need to strengthen our capability on the battery electric propulsion side of things. So we're doing all that.

Speaker 2

I just don't think there's a reason for us to come out and throw dates around when this business model happens and frankly, look, I think there's every reason to believe that, that eVTOL and the urban air mobility could be a very big business. And I think we'd love to supply assets into those into that business. But I think ElectroFlight frankly is a lot more than that, right? I mean there's There's trainers or fixed wing stuff. It's not just all about eVTOL.

Speaker 2

I mean, that could be a monster market. That would be great, but I don't think only market. So we're taking probably a more pragmatic approach and making the right investments, I think, and looking at opportunities for us to be a big player in that. I think we should be the winner in that space, I think we can do it with relatively modest investments and leverage the technology that we already have in our company.

Speaker 3

Yes, that makes a ton of sense. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. I guess, Scott, I'm not totally sure, but I want to guess that you're probably at least 3 quarters of the way through The NetJets agreement on Latitudes. And so how do we think about where that goes from here and The demand level as you sort of approach the end of that those 200 aircraft, given their importance as a Latitude customer?

Speaker 2

Look, that's a good question. I don't recall exactly the numbers. I mean, it was a huge order. As you guys know, we put those into backlog as we we work with NetJets every quarter on forecasting that sort of 12 to 18 month window that's out there. We I don't think we're close enough that we started to have to negotiate another deal, the provisions of how to manage that through on the life cycle of that couple of 100 aircraft, we're already defined and we're executing to that.

Speaker 2

I guess, all I would say is, I think that the performance of that airplane for NetJets, for their customers has been terrific. The relationship is very strong. It's very healthy. We enjoy working together. And I think when we get to the point where we got to say, All right, guys.

Speaker 2

We're the term of that contract in terms of the number of aircraft, and we'll I would have every reason to believe we'd negotiate an extension to it and keep on going. All right.

Speaker 4

Okay. Very good. And then maybe following up on Christine's Bell question, Understand that there's no 2023 guidance at this point. But I mean with a FLARO win, can we assume that 2022 is an EBIT bottom at Bell?

Speaker 2

Well, my gosh, again, I don't want to guide 2023 just yet. There's a lot of stuff that will happen here through the course 2022 in terms of other programs and commercial aircraft and aftermarket and all those sorts of things. So there's a lot of moving parts in the mix It goes into what our EBIT levels look like at Bell and where we certainly haven't delved into that at this point.

Speaker 4

Okay. Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

And we do have a follow-up question from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Scott, you first projected that you would recover half of the decline from 2019 to 2020 in Cessna deliveries in 2021, you essentially just reported exactly that, maybe actually slightly light of it. And you first projected 2022 would get back But it seems like the market has strengthened considerably since you first provided those targets that span a 2 year period about a year ago. And so it's sort of the market is strong and I understand you want to be prudent about how you where you go with the production rates here and this Been cyclical in the past, but it sort of seems like the strength, the incremental strength of the last 12 months is not really coming through in those delivery numbers.

Speaker 2

Well, look, no, I mean, we've tried to provide a guidance and try to hit the expectations on that guidance. We'll look at how the market plays out through the course of the year and what the order rates look like and what we can do That we think we can if we think we can do additional aircraft. In other words, the market demand is there, the supply capability is there, it all Look, we work that every day. So if there is an opportunity for us to improve upon that and service some deliveries, No. Obviously, we'll go down that path, but I think that the guide is appropriate to what we've said.

Speaker 2

It's supported by the backlog and That's the plan that we're looking at today.

Speaker 3

Okay.

Speaker 9

And do you anticipate seeing bookings in excess of revenue at a rate through 2022 that was similar to what you saw in 2021?

Speaker 2

Look, no, I don't know. I mean, we're looking at awfully strong ratios here In 2021, so that would be another awfully big backlog build. I'd love to see us continue Some backlog, Bill, but is it reasonable to expect it to stay that hot through a whole another year? I don't know, right? I mean, if it does, great.

Speaker 2

And if it does, obviously, we'll continue to tweak our production levels up and our delivery levels up. But that's something I think we'll just keep an eye on that as we go through the course of the year. I wouldn't I mean, I'd just be making stuff up to it's going to be that strong for a whole another year, but we'll see how it plays out. Certainly, it

Operator

And our last follow-up question is from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes, Scott. The 4th quarter deliveries being 3 less than the 3rd quarter. I know you talked about wanting to level load them this year, but I would have expected the Q4 to be a little bit bigger than the 3rd. So were there any deliveries that got pushed into 22 as a result of that or that's just how it fell out and that's just what we expect in the future?

Speaker 2

No, that's just how it fell out, George. I mean, we're going to have it's not going to be the same number every quarter, obviously, but I think we like the fact that there's a lot more linearity. If you can contrast that to going back and having a lower Q3 and This big spike of tons of deliveries right at the end of Q4, again, it's not a very healthy way to run a business. We'd like to be totally flat or a little bit better on sequentials. Okay.

Speaker 2

But I mean, I think at this point in the game, we're delivering to the customer need dates and that's what we're going to continue to do as we go forward.

Speaker 12

Okay. And then what is the lead time Where you'd have to make a decision to deliver more planes this year, you have The first half of the year to be able to do that or what kind of lead time do you need?

Speaker 2

Well, look, George, I mean, we've always talked about these are being sort of 12 to 18 month kind of things on some of the longest lead. Obviously, we work with those suppliers to try to again, go down another level or 2 levels in some cases to look at what are the longest lead times in their supply chains and try to mitigate some of those things. So that it gives us a little more In ramping as we go through, but I mean there are obviously limits to that. But So when we say it's kind of 12 to 18 months is where we'd like to be. Obviously, we've tried to mitigate some of those longest lead items so that we have Inside of that window, but look, it's really hard to make much changes inside of a 6 month window, right?

Speaker 2

But we have a little bit of wiggle room in that sort of year timeframe.

Operator

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Operator

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