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Nucor Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript


Listen to Conference Call View Latest SEC 10-K Filing

Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Leon J. Topalian
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • James D. Frias
    Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive Vice President
  • K. Rex Query
    Executive Vice President Sheet and Tubular Products
  • D. Chad Utermark
    Executive Vice President Fabricated Construction Products
  • Al Behr
    Executive Vice President Plate and Structural Products

Presentation

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter of 2021 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Good afternoon, and welcome to our 2021 fourth quarter and full year's earnings call. Joining me on the call today are several members of Nucor's executive team including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Doug Jellison, responsible for Raw Materials and Logistics; Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services and our General Counsel; Dan Needham, responsible for Bar and Rebar Fabrication and Engineered Bar Products; Rex Query, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for Commercial Strategy; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products.

By so many measures 2021 was an extraordinary year for Nucor. Our team delivered incredible financial and operating results over the course of the year, while working safely and responsibly. Every single day our nearly 29,000 team members remain focused on our company's mission to grow our core steel making capabilities, while expanding our presence into related businesses that fit with our culture and leverage our strengths. For our team, the most important value is safety and so I'm incredibly pleased to report that 2021 was the safest year in our history. Becoming the world's safest steel company is a lofty goal and our team is now achieved back to back record years in safety. Nucor had 16 divisions that went zero recordable injuries in 2021 and I look forward to the day when our entire company achieves that same goal. I want to thank each of my Nucor team members for your daily commitment to safety, looking out for one another and I look forward to an even safer year in 2022.

Turning to our fourth quarter results. Earnings per share were $7.97, exceeding our guidance range of $7.65 to $7.75. This represents another new quarterly record for our company. Looking at 2021 as a whole we said several other financial records. Net income for 2021 was $6.8 billion and full year earnings per share was $23.16, which were both notable increases over the prior records we'd set in 2018 with $2.4 billion of net income and an EPS of $7.42. Our record financial performance is the result of years of work reinvesting to strategically position and grow our portfolio of capabilities across the steel value chain. We are leveraging our competitive advantage to aggressively and opportunistically pursue value enhancing long-term growth. Along the way, we are delivering a differentiated value proposition to our customers and expanding our relationships with them.

By executing operationally across our business lines and in parallel, investing in Nucor's future, we are generating attractive returns for our shareholders and positively impacting our local communities. In the process, we can offer Nucor teammates secure employment and competitive compensation and benefits as well as the opportunities to further their professional growth and development. Our talented, dedicated team members are Nucor's greatest value creators. Reflecting this for 2021, our profit sharing total about $850 million. Adding this amount to teammate profit sharing over the course of the last five decades Nucor's allocated a total of about $3.8 billion in profit sharing to our team members. Most profit sharing payments are contributed directly to teammates' retirement savings accounts, and as a result, we believe that Nucor teammates are far more prepared for retirement than the average American.

Of course, we are also mindful of our responsibility to shareholders. We're proud to have been able to provide cash returns via dividends and share repurchases totaling about $3.8 billion in 2021 and in December to increase our regular quarterly dividend for the 49th year in a row this year by 23% to a rate of $0.50 per quarter. Our quarterly dividend is now about 30% higher than it was in 2018. We reduced our share count by more than 11% in 2021 even as we funded capital expenditures and acquisitions totaling approximately $3 billion to drive the next chapter of our growth story. And as Jim will share, we remain very well capitalized enable to pursue our objectives.

And speaking of those, as we move into 2022, we are not letting up when it comes to executing our strategy to grow our value-added product portfolio and expand into new product markets and geographic regions. Two weeks ago, we announced that Mason County West Virginia will be the location of our new state-of-the-art 3 million ton sheet mill. The location along the Ohio River provides Nucor with important transportation and logistics advantages in serving the country's two largest sheet steel consuming regions in, the Midwest and Northeast, two areas where Nucor is currently under-represented. Once operational our West Virginia mill will have some of the most advanced capabilities and one of the lowest carbon footprints of any sheet mill in the world. We are very excited to begin work with the local community in Mason County on this transformational project that will create substantial long-term value for all Nucor shareholders.

On December 16th, our Nucor Steel Arkansas Sheet Mill produced its first prime coil from its new generation 3 flexible galvanizing line. The new galvanizing line combined with Hickman's highly successful specialty cold rolling mill that's been in operation for more than two years uniquely positions our company among North American EAF steelmakers to provide the high strength lightweight steels that are increasingly in demand. These capabilities represent important competitive advantages for our company exemplifying Nucor's ability to meet the needs of our customers for high strength steels. Congratulations to the entire Nucor Arkansas team. Another sheet mill project Nucor Steel Gallatin top end modernization and expansion is beginning to start up in the current quarter. This project gives Gallatin's new mill thicker slab casting and wider coil capabilities, expanding our product portfolio into markets currently served by higher cost competitors. Our Gallatin team members continue to impress with their ability to safely construct the expansion project within the environment of an operating mill and we look forward to its continued ramp up.

We are also expanding our presence in the Western U.S. In December, we announced an agreement to acquire a majority ownership stake of 51% in California Steel Industries for about $400 million. CSI is a flat rolled converter with annual capacity to produce more than 2 million tons of finished steel and steel products. This investment, which is expected to close shortly, expands our geographic reach in the sheet market, grows our portfolio of value-added sheet products, and enables us to supply Nucor's downstream businesses in the region, including Verco and the recently acquired Hannibal Industries. We are very excited to partner here with JFE Steel Corporation on our second joint venture.

Switching to the plate market, our Brandenburg, Kentucky greenfield mill is on track to begin rolling its first steel plate product in the fourth quarter of this year with a capability to manufacture nearly all the different types of plate products consumed in the United States, Brandenburg will position Nucor as the supplier of choice in the domestic plate market, which includes applications in offshore wind, heavy equipment, construction and military. Finally, I would also like to mention a new project in our bar mill group. In December, we announced our plan to build a new rebar micro mill with annual capacity of 430,000 tons in the South Atlantic region. This will be Nucor's third rebar micro mill joining micro mills in Missouri and Florida that begin operations in 2020. We are currently evaluating potential sites and are excited about this opportunity to grow our profitable leadership position in rebar, a core business for Nucor throughout the last 50 years.

I am extremely proud of all of our teammates who are working so hard on all of these projects as they are prime examples of Nucor's continued execution of our mission to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture. And before I leave this topic, I just want to note that we believe we are seeing an acceleration of a transformation in our industry that has been underway for decades, forces driving economic efficiency and lower emissions in steel making. No North American producer is better positioned than Nucor to continue leading in these areas. With our team's disciplined focus on execution and Nucor's financial and operational strengths, we expect to realize very attractive returns on our investments.

We are very proud of Nucor's help make the United States the cleanest place in the world to make steel. The green economy is being built on steel and the steel is built on matters. We are also capitalizing on the opportunities to supply the sustainable steel that is building our 21st century economy. Earlier this month, we shipped our very first coil of Econiq to General Motors after having just launched this new line of steels this past October. Our Econiq offering represents the world's first ever net zero carbon steel available at scale. We look forward to continuing to offer Econiq to more customers, and of course, lower greenhouse gas emission steel across our product portfolio.

Nucor will continue to be a key part of our modern economy by supplying the most advance and sustainable steel products needed to rebuild Americas infrastructure. We are pleased that our leaders came together in the fourth quarter to pass historic bipartisan infrastructure legislation that will help advance and modernize U.S. infrastructure and strengthen the health of our economy by creating opportunities for American workers. With approximately half of Nucor's products going into the construction market, we stand ready to help our country meet its infrastructure needs.

We also continue to work with the administration and members of Congress to enforce our trade laws so that our market is free from the distortions caused by unfairly traded imports. In that, as we reinvest in our infrastructure, we do so with steel produced in America the highest quality cleanest deal possible. And before I turn the call over to Jim, I would like to congratulate the entire Nucor team on reaching new heights to achieve our safest and most profitable year in company's history. You have much to be proud of. And on behalf of myself and our entire executive team thank you. Team let's keep up our focus in 2022 and of course for Nucor that begins with a value of safety. We have much to look forward to as we progressed throughout this new year.

Now, Jim will provide more details about our fourth quarter and full year performance. Jim?

James D. Frias
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive Vice President at Nucor

Thanks, Leon. As Leon mentioned, fourth quarter of 2021 earnings of $7.97 per diluted share established a new quarterly record, eclipsing the prior record of $7.28 per share established in last year's third quarter. Fourth quarter earnings also exceeded our guidance range of $7.65 to $7.75 per diluted share. Better than expected results for the month of December were achieved across a broad group of businesses. Record full year net income of $6.8 billion was driven by Nucor's diverse portfolio of products and capabilities. Profitability records were set by numerous businesses including Nucor sheet mills, rebar and merchant bar mills, engineered bar mills, plate mills, structural mills, joist and deck, tubular products, cold finished bars, and fasteners. Nucor's product breadth continues to be a powerful driver of value creation through the cycle for both our customers and shareholders.

While our 2021 performance unquestionably benefited from an exceptionally strong steel industry up cycle, Nucor's results were also fueled by our team's focus and commitment to safely meeting our customers' needs. Disciplined execution of our growth strategy over the years is a significant factor underlying our success. For example, five major greenfield projects completed commissioning and startup over the 2019 through 2020 time period. They are the rolling mill modernization at our Ohio rebar mill, the hot band galvanizing line at our Kentucky sheet mill, the specialty cold rolling mill at our Arkansas sheet mill, the rebar micro mill in Missouri, and the rebar micro mill in Florida. These projects represent an aggregate capital investment of just over $1 billion. For the full year of 2021, they generated EBITDA totaling $674 million. Our teammates at these facilities have done stellar work, executing across the board on safety, product quality, and financial performance.

Cumulative EBITDA already exceeds the investment outlays for the Gallatin galvanizing line and the Ohio rebar mill modernization. The cumulative EBITDA generated by the Hickman specialty cold mill is nearing that project's capital investment. First year EBITDA for the Missouri and Florida rebar micro mills are multiples of what we originally projected in our project return budgets. Two more major capital projects totaling just over $1 billion have entered start up in late 2021 and early 2022. These investments meaningfully enhance Nucor sheet product capabilities. They are, the expansion and modernization of the Gallatin sheet mill and the Generation 3 flexible galvanizing line at the Hickman sheet mill.

We look forward to introducing our new capabilities to strategic customers as the year progresses and we are excited about the returns expected to be generated for our shareholders as these projects ramp-up. While 2021 clearly revealed the earnings and cash generation power of Nucor's businesses, it also provided an opportunity for us to fully demonstrate Nucor's balanced capital allocation framework. As most of you know, we are committed to first investing for profitable growth, while maintaining our strong investment grade credit rating and returning capital to our shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases, a minimum of 40% of net income over time. When we judge that strong free cash flow is causing us to become over capitalized, we will typically distribute more than 40% of our net income to shareholders.

Capital returns have averaged 58% of net income over the five-year period ending in 2021 and they were 55% of Nucor's net income for the year up 2021. 2021 capital returns consisted of dividends of $483 million and share repurchases of just under $3.3 billion. The share repurchases totaled more than 33.8 million shares at an average cost of about $97 per share. These returns were of course funded by our strong cash provided by operating activities, also a new record of $6.2 billion. Other significant uses of cash during the year were capital spending of $1.6 billion, expansion of working capital mainly receivables and inventory net of payables totaling approximately $3.3 billion and acquisitions of about $1.4 billion. We remain well capitalized with excellent liquidity. At year-end gross debt as a percentage of total capital was approximately 28%, while net debt was about 14% of total capital. Our cash, short-term investments and restricted cash holdings totaled about $2.8 billion at year-end.

Nucor's liquidity also includes our undrawn $1.75 billion unsecured revolving credit facility. In November, we increased the capacity by $250 million and extended the maturity date to November of 2026. Given the state of our balance sheet, near-term investment plans and our expectations for earnings, we anticipate that we will continue returning excess capital to our shareholders during the first quarter of 2022, very likely via continued share repurchases. Our analysis suggests that Nucor shares are significantly undervalued relative to our risk profile, earnings and cash flow generation capacity.

For 2022, we project capital spending of approximately $2.3 billion. Growth projects for improved product capabilities and expansion represent about 75% of our expected capital spending for this year. These include the Kentucky plate mill, the West Virginia sheet mill, the South Atlantic rebar micro mill, and Gallatin's tubular products facility. Maintenance capital spending for equipment replacement spares and cost savings projects accounts for the roughly 25% remaining. We currently expect capital expenditures over the next 3 years to total approximately $5.5 billion.

Turning to the outlook. We are confident that 2022 will be another year of strong profitability for Nucor, fueled by continued strong end-use market demand for our wide range of steel and steel products, better margins in our steel product segment as pricing is now caught up with higher steel input costs and lower intercompany inventory revaluation expenses, reflecting flatter steel and raw material cost compared to 2021. Focusing on the quarter, we expect consolidated net earnings attributable to Nucor shareholders will be slightly reduced from the fourth quarter of 2021's record results. Diluted earnings per share for the first quarter of 2022 will benefit from lower weighted average shares outstanding.

Steel mills segment earnings are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2022 due to decreased profitability of our sheet mills offsetting increased profitability at our long products mills. The steel product segment is expected to achieve further margin expansion and profitability in the first quarter of 2022 as backlog pricing continues to improve. The raw material segment is expected to improve slightly in the first quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 due to the improved profitability of our DRI facilities, partially offset by the impact of lower scrap prices in our scrap brokerage and processing operations.

Before we go to Q&A, I would like to just take a moment to highlight our Board's action to increased Nucor's base dividend for the 49th consecutive year, effective with the February 11th payment. I hope you will agree that this is an impressive track record. Our team has great determination to continue our record of delivering increased long-term value for our shareholders. Thank you for your interest in Nucor.

Operator, we are now ready to take questions.


Questions and Answers

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Sathish Kasinathan with Deutsche Bank.

Sathish Kasinathan
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Yeah, hi, good afternoon. Congrats on a strong set of financial results as well as the safety record. My first question is on the steel mills segment. You mentioned that you expect earnings to decline due to the lower flat roll margins, but was just wondering if you could talk about the order entry rate in January and how you see the volumes for the first quarter. And also can you talk about the ramp up profile at Gallatin and the total incremental volumes you expect from the mill for the current quarter as well as the full year.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Okay. Satish l will start us off and maybe Jim or Rex Query, EVP of our Sheet Group can touch on the Gallatin expansion. Number one to begin with, as we mentioned in Jim's comments that we do expect primarily because of sheet pricing our steel mills segment to be a little off in terms of profitability. But it's important to remember as well that's coming off a historic year. And in particular, if we think about our sheet group and their performance, the sheet group set a record in terms of shipments at over 11 million tons, generated over $6 billion in EBITDA performance. And if you think about Nucor's 55% return on equity, a large piece of that was attributable because of the sheet group. And so as we move forward the short-term inflection that we are seeing both in pricing as well as some of the volumes that we think are a short-term factors are based on imports and obviously what we saw in the third quarter in terms of buying patterns are the spread between HRC domestically and internationally was at a all-time high. We had a -- the industry really catch up in terms of order entry rates and deliveries. So the supply chain got full very quickly and maybe some even some over buying. And then couple that with the supply chain constraints, labor constraints and the omicron variant raging, all created for a little bit of a perfect storm here in the fourth quarter heading into early part of 2022. But again the outlook and the demand picture across every end market the Nucor serves remains very robust, and again, we think this is going to work through the inventory rebalancing and position us well as we move forward.

James D. Frias
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive Vice President at Nucor

Yeah. For Gallatin, and Rex you can add to this if you would like to. It's going to have a capacity over the year to give us an incremental 800,000 to 900,000 tons. But the way the market is right now, we are going to start out at a much slower pace in the first quarter and it's going to depend on market demand. We are not just going to make steel and enforce in the marketplace if we can't sell it at a reasonable price. Rex?

K. Rex Query
Executive Vice President Sheet and Tubular Products at Nucor

Yeah. To get just some additional detail on Gallatin, as far as the outage we had we are on target coming up, the expectation as Jim mentioned, approximately 800,000 tons additional for the year. We will measure that ramp up here in the first quarter with what we see on demand. There is no need to ramp that up any quicker than we need. Full -- there is additional work to be done, which is part of the plan. So in March we will commission the EAF, LMF and the caster and by the end of March we will be capable of full production at that point with a wider strip and a thicker slab, but we are going to keep an eye on the market and will really measure that ramp up as we see what market conditions are doing at Gallatin.

Sathish Kasinathan
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Okay. Thank you for the color. And then my second question is on the steel products segment. So you mentioned that you expect margin expansion in the first quarter, but can you talk about the size the duration of your backlogs currently and provide a bit more color on how you see the margin profile through the remainder of the year. We should see some strong tailwind from lower input cost, so just any color you can provide. Thank you.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yes, Satish. I will kick us off and ask Chad Utermark, our Executive Vice President of Products to really add some color in there. But if I think back to, even in the height of the pandemic in 2020 that business segment remain incredibly robust that is continued and we see that continuing moving forward. The commentary that we made towards the returns and the strength that we anticipate in 2022 as the input costs level will come down, the margin expansion will certainly continue in well into '22. And so Chad why don't you add some commentary behind some of that backlogs.

D. Chad Utermark
Executive Vice President Fabricated Construction Products at Nucor

Yes, thank you, Leon. And as Leon mentioned, as we talked about in the script, we believe non-res construction will remain very strong as we enter 2022 and even beyond. We continue to see solid seasonal adjusted quoting activity. So as we look across our broad portfolio of downstream products it's a really solid quoting activity that's ongoing. And if you combine that with our backlogs that are very robust and in some cases they are all time record backlogs, so that's one dataset that we look at. The second and very important data set we look at is our customers per say. And our customers are overwhelmingly bullish on their 2022 demand. And I would ask you to remember our growth through the years and downstream steel products allows Nucor to have a very good visibility into the demand of construction products such as rebar fab, steel piling, pre-engineered metal buildings, res key, steel tubing, insulated panel, joist and deck, and steel conduit. So as we look and analyze that demand from this broad non-res construction base, we are very excited about what 2022 holds. And as far as the margins and our backlog, there are solid. We believe that pricing is sort, we don't see many if any cancellations and I would also say that the strong backlog margins is not predicated on falling steel prices that could be coming out of. These are healthy margins due to the supply and the strong demand balance that's out there.

Sathish Kasinathan
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Okay, thank you. Congrats again, and thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

Carlos De Alba
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Yeah, good morning, everyone. Sorry, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. So firstly you could comment as to how you see capacity utilization in your different key products, particularly in Q1 and maybe how you see the progression into Q2 and the second half of the year if you have visibility given your with your backlog? Second question, if I may, is you -- given the $5.5 billion in capex over the next three years, I mean, some of that already is ongoing with projects that you are executing, but how do you see the returns on these investments, any sense of the incremental EBITDA that you could generate from these projects that would be great.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah. I will start Carlos. First, converting capacity utilizations, we don't break those out typically in detail by business. But if we think about overall volumes in the first quarter, it's probably going to be slightly up because of seasonality in the first quarter. Sheet could be slightly down whereas other products we would think would more than offset them in general and we will see that volumes would probably improve from that level in the second quarter because there are winter factors with weather stuff that affect some of the shipments and also home crowd is affecting supply chains. And maybe at the end I will make some comments about the year that are more global about what we are thinking about regarding the economic impacts of Nucor. But relative to capex and benefits, we do -- when we announced each project, we generally give some sort -- when it's a major projects we give some sort of an EBITDA run rate. So, I'll go back and read our earnings releases that we published about each of the major projects and see that data. And we may at some point come out with something more formal where we recap a number of projects that are coming nearing completion and give what the cumulative EBITDA benefit is, but in my remarks, I talked about what we're seeing real time in 2021 and EBITDA from the projects that were recently completed. Okay. Does that makes sense?

Carlos De Alba
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Yeah, that makes sense.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

So, first, relative to the year, as part of your question gets into what you expect for the year. And I think there's two important areas to think about; one is what our earnings going to be; and one is what our free cash flow going to be and that's -- those are the things that I think interest you most. And it starts with end market demand. We have already touched on this. But end market demand remains strong. And it's -- the heart of it is non-res construction biggest user steel, but we are still not benefiting yet. Auto is still down. Auto is still down, because of the chips. Chips and auto won't ramp up till later this year. And so we are going to see increased demand from auto. We are not seeing the benefits from the infrastructure believe that's still coming. So, overall, we think about end-use demand for steel will be up in '22 over '21 and there are some important pieces that are not benefiting us in the first quarter of this year that are still coming sets the starting point.

Secondly, you have touched on and others have touched on this already, we have got the largest downstream products businesses of any steel companies and there we are getting margin squeezed for all of last year and pricing is finally starting to catch up. There are still businesses that have more room to go in terms of expanding their margins and getting prices cut because of the size of what their backlogs are good. And so we expect to see margin expansion in the first quarter and beyond for those businesses so that's a positive. Again, the next is going to be incremental benefits from the ramp of three major projects, the Hickman galvanized line, the Gallatin hot mill to the extent that there is enough sheet demand to ship some portion of that another 8,000 tons of extra capacity we will have for the year, and then finally the Kankakee, our merchant bar mill, we have been running parts of its capability, but not it's full range yet and so there's still some incremental capacity in Kankakee that we are not benefiting from that we will benefit from next year, so another positive for the years outlook.

And then finally, intercompany eliminations, last year our intercompany eliminations expense to revalue inventory to the cost of manufacture totaled about $776 million and it's going to be a much smaller number next year. It'll be much closer to zero. So that's going to be significant benefit to our earnings results for the year. There are some headwinds for next year. The biggest one being the sheet price correction that's really tied mainly to imports. But when you think about the sheet market overall, our EBITDA for the year could approach the level we achieved last year, because our EBITDA ramped dramatically from the first quarter of last year to the end of last year. We made somewhere in the $285 per ton of EBITDA in sheet in the first quarter. We have finished the year close to $800. We averaged $560 per ton in sheet last year. So sheet could still average at or above what they did last year based on what we are seeing today. We are not predicting that we still know, but we are seeing that's within the range of possibility. That's the biggest question mark in your forecast for the year is what sheet does.

Longs, plate, beams -- bars, they really should do a little better in 2022 overall than they did '21, because again we started out with a weak first quarter for lot of these businesses. Raw materials will be down year-over-year and that's because in 2021 when raw material prices were rising, we had inventory in the supply chain when we captured value hence we made money in DRI, because of low iron ore prices that we had on the ground and in our contracts, we made money in scrap, because we had scrap in our scrap yards that was being priced higher every month and every quarter prices were rising. So the raw material segments will be a small tailwind, a strong headwind, excuse me, and depreciation and amortization is going to be higher. Last year's number was about $865 million, this year is going to be just north of a $1 billion. So that will be a small headwind. So if we translate that, you can start with some earnings number when you filter to what assumptions you make around that. It's going to be a pretty strong earnings number and we go to free cash flow.

Well, working capital used $3.3 billion of cash last year, I said in the script. When we look at inventory receivables and payables net, they are not going to use that much cash to share that could be small benefit. That's Incremental free cash flow. Capital spending is only going to be up in the neighborhood of $700 million based on what we see today. And of course, we had a fairly robust M&A pipeline. We have got one project that we are going to be closing out soon and that's on the CSI project, but it's not as big as the combined things we did last year by large amount and there could be other things coming. We have capacity to do more. When we think about our free cash flow next year, we reduced our share count by 11% last year through significant capital or returns of capital to investors through share repurchases. We have noted in my comments that we are going to be doing some strong share repurchases in the first quarter. This could be another year of strong free cash flow where we return to a sizable amount of cash to our investors. So those would be our thoughts about how to think about the whole year from a big picture perspective.

Carlos De Alba
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Very good, thank you. Very, very good color. Good luck in the year.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

Emily Chieng
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Good afternoon, Leon and Jim. And congratulations on the strong update today. My first question is just around the capital allocation and I think last year churn that you have been able to execute both growth and a significant amount of capital returns. How should we think about that balance going forward in 2022 and perhaps what does the next chapter of your growth strategy look like?

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah, Emily. I will start off and thanks for the question. As we mentioned and have talked previously, our mission is very simple. It's eight word, is to grow core, expand beyond and live our culture. If we think about the core of our steel making capabilities is the expansions up regional and capabilities. It's not about adding capacity. So, the acquisition of CSI for us and having JFE as a second partnership in California and again majority shareholder in that operation, it's really exciting for us. The announcement of our rebar micro mill to continue our market leadership position in rebar, the new mill in West Virginia, we are incredibly excited about, because again it provides a long-term differentiated value proposition for our customers that they have been asking for it in need. And if you think about to move in the time over the last 24 to 36 months and what's going on in the world of ESG, the sustainability side of our industry is paramount and again Nucor is incredibly well positioned as one of the cleanest steel makers in the world to offer steel like we just did to General Motors. So that is going to continue. You are going to see Nucor continue to grow our capability. The second piece of that is the expanding beyond the traditional balance of our steel making range and those projects like Hannibal Industries in racking like CENTRIA and Metl-Span to give us a market leadership position today in the insulated metal panels that is all about the digital economy as. We think about what's happening, and warehousing, data storage cold storage. That is a booming industry that really is insulated from the traditional cyclicality of steel making. And so you are going to see Nucor continue to move and invest in projects where we can combine our culture, our strong balance sheet, and our investment strategy in deploying capital that will greatly exceed our cost of capital goals to return to our shareholders. Jim anything you would add?

James D. Frias
Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive Vice President at Nucor

Yeah. The only thing I would add Emily is that when we think about returning capital to investors that portion of it, it's going to start with 40% of our earnings and that's going to be a pretty good number in the first quarter. And -- but we do use an intrinsic value model that we show the Board every quarter. There is a very disciplined process. We published our net debt to capital range that we want to live in to maintain our strong investment grade credit rating. That's 18% to 22%. We are below that right now. And so we would expect that we need to keep investing and returning capital to investors both and we have the capacity to both as we go forward. The only thing Leon that regarding growth is we are likely to have another nice next weekend on a growth initiative that's in the pipeline that's again to add capabilities around our product mix. Do you want to talk about that at all?

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah. Just again, stay tuned in the coming days. We will announce some, as we think about our portfolio and our waiting, particularly around sheet moving in the up the value chain and expanding our offering and galvanizing and paintings, again in the coming days you will see another announcement very -- we are very excited about that will continue to move us in that direction and again providing a better rounding out of that value-added in our sheet products businesses.

Emily Chieng
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Got it. That's very helpful. And we look forward to update. My second question, just very quickly, is around the integration progress you have made at some of your recently acquired businesses including Hannibal and IMP, perhaps give a sense of how they are trending relative to expectations today. I will leave it at that. Thank you.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah, thanks, Emily. I'm going to turn this one to Rex Query, our EVP of our Sheet and Tubular who is over the Hannibal Industries and then maybe Chad touch on our CENTRIA and Metl-Span. Rex?

K. Rex Query
Executive Vice President Sheet and Tubular Products at Nucor

Yeah, Emily. Thanks for the question. Hannibal Industries, our first step into the racking side, obviously we look for companies that are successful is our first approach for Nucor. Hannibal has been very successful, but also just a cultural fit in the first place. So integration to us, we look at that leadership and entered an existing company and we evaluate that fit as well. And so that's what we found at Hannibal. They have couple of operations California, Houston, the leadership we have had there really just spectacular, fit in well with our company. We hired a -- our shift to the general manager, existing general manager Nucor over that business, but we are really pulling that group in to get them to understand Nucor integrate and look at our production bonus system and how we incorporate that, but it's very much step in learn as much about their business as well. I will also comment on Hannibal and the racking that leadership team and that includes the existing there and the ones we have added from Nucor. They are tasked with growing that business. So we are already evaluating acquisition potential, greenfield potential in the racking business so we stepped into that business for the purposes of growing and growing further geographically and expanding our capabilities there.

D. Chad Utermark
Executive Vice President Fabricated Construction Products at Nucor

Yeah. We are very, very excited. Just like Rex said about Hannibal, but especially in the IMP space and Leon mentioned about that space and I want to actually to talk a little bit more about it, but we are excited about the Cornerstone IMP acquisition, the team that we now have. The insulated metal panel space has been attractive to Nucor for a long time and we were excited back in 2019 to purchase a start-up company called TrueCore and we are equally excited to welcome the Cornerstone IMP team into Nucor. We are working diligently through the integration and on-boarding process. While we faced some short-term challenges with chemical supply and a portion of inadequately priced backlog at the time of acquisition, we are still very excited about our future in IMP. And again just why IMP. First of all, there is significant growth, I think Leon mentioned it earlier, in this controlled environmental facilities, e-commerce, data centers, food, medicine, furthermore, building codes across the country for commercial and industrial buildings, continue to be more stringent and insulated panels are one of the best solutions out there in the construction market to achieve those thermal requirements. More and more companies as you guys know developers and owners, see the value and are focusing on the E in ESG and we have also watch the growth of IMP in Europe and we believe the U.S. market while currently about a $1 billion market for IMP, we believe that could grow in excess of $2 billion, so still on-boarding, still integrating, there are a few challenges to work through, but excited about the future.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Thank you, Chad. And I just in close in saying, hey, we welcome the Hannibal team and Insulated Metal Panel team to the Nucor family and again excited about the opportunities of those businesses will bring in the years to come.

Operator

We will take our next question from Seth Rosenfeld with BNP Paribas Exane.

Seth Rosenfeld
Analyst at Exane BNP Paribas

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking our questions today. I have a few questions first from plate and then I will follow up later on green steel please. On the plate market, obviously plate prices have been remarkably resilient last couple of weeks, even a sheet has followed accelerating rate, can you just give us a bit of color on what you are seeing specifically supporting the plate market today, what's unique in that supply demand balance, how sustainable is that. In the past we seen a great tight relationship in plate and hot rolled, do you think that could break out right now or is there a reason to be bit more concerned looking into the middle of the year are for plate? I will stop there.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah, great question. Seth, I want to turn that to Al Behr, our EVP of Plate and Structural Group. Behr?

Al Behr
Executive Vice President Plate and Structural Products at Nucor

Yeah, thanks. Seth, appreciate the question. I don't know that I would add a lot more than what we talked about as a consistent drumbeat around demand. The pricing for our product is always driven by demand and what we see in the plate market, I would highlight three key markets for us. One is non-residential construction. We have talked about that quite a bit. Our visibility into that market is extremely good and the demand picture is very strong. Another key market would be heavy equipment, industrial equipment that market is very strong right now. If there is any indication of weakness, it's around supply chain and that true consumption in demand at the OEMs. The final market I would highlight would be energy, broadly energy, which includes renewables as well as oil and gas. Oil and gas has been a bit weaker in the last couple of years and that with oil prices today is growing by the day. So, that really is what it comes down to Seth. It's just a very solid demand picture. Our crystal ball gets pretty fuzzy when we look out very much past the next month or so. We don't know what the rest of the year will bring. But we are optimistic about the plate market. The demand in key markets is very good and we instituted a published price in obviously of 2020 and that's a relevant price. We are committed to keeping that is a relevant price that's transactionally based. And as we need to move that according to the supply and demand market in the markets we will do that, but what direction that may go is just tough for us to tell, then the demand is good, and we are encouraged.

Seth Rosenfeld
Analyst at Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you very much. Separate question please on Econiq for the green steel brand. First, congrats on your first delivery to GM. Can you give us a bit more color on the scale of volume growth you think could be achievable say in the next one to two years. And then on the pricing side, obviously, demand perhaps growing very rapidly right now, supply is very tight, what's the degree of pricing power are you able to achieve compared to any cost escalation perhaps as you just raw materials mix for power supply? Thank you.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah. Thanks Seth. And we are excited about Econiq. Again this -- again more recent transformation over the last two, three, four years and moving into a much more sustainable place, Nucor is, again, I think been ahead of the curve. We have done things that many in our industry have not. We have got two virtual power purchase agreements today that because of our balance sheet allow us to be able to do those things. We are starting out with a carbon intensity that is 3x or 4x lower than some of our integrated competitors. So we begin from a platform of great strength and again a commitment to be even stronger and even cleaner. So we have announced a 35% reduction target by 2030 that will bring us to about a 0.37, 0.38 tons of CO2 per ton of steel produced, which again in the world numbers is incredibly low. So, it enables Nucor to offer what we did to General Motors a few weeks ago in the first coil of net zero steel to their to their factory.

That being said, what I would tell you again in two, just over two years I have been CEO that demand picture is changing markedly literally day-to-day. So it's not just the major OEMs in automotive now that are asking for. We are seeing many of our construction, many of our OEM partners outside of automotive that are beginning to ask for this. And so I am not going to detail out what the value is. I would tell you that that value increases as we move forward, because many of our end customers cannot achieve their end stated goals of their carbon footprint reduction targets without an incoming steel that is significantly lower than most of the world average is. So what I would tell you is, there is value there today. Make no mistake. That value will continue to increase. And we will see how that moves there over the next 8, 10, 12 and in 24 months in terms of the amount of steel that Nucor participates in and how fast we escalate that, but we kind of control that. We have the opportunity to continue to enhance that and do what's required to meet that demand picture.

Seth Rosenfeld
Analyst at Exane BNP Paribas

Okay. Thank you very much.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Thank you, Seth.

Operator

Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

Timna Tanners
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hey, great. Hope all of you are doing well. I wanted to ask a bit about your visibility into the first quarter. Now that lead times are a lot shorter. Can you talk a little bit about how good your visibility is for sheet in particular and what you are looking for in order to ramp up Gallatin like what conditions, is it demand is it price or both?

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah, maybe I will start and Rex maybe if you want to add some color. Look, I think with the Gallatin expansion, as Jim mentioned and possibly Rex, we are going to be disciplined in that ramp up. At the same time balancing out, we have invested a lot of money. So we want to make sure that equipment is ready and available as we progressed out. So that team is working feverishly to bring its capability to where we need. At the same time, I would tell you over the last 12 or 18 months, particularly as we move through the last contract season, Nucor has been very disciplined about our approach into the marketplace and how we want to transact. So, as Jim mentioned a few minutes ago, we are not going follow the market just because we want to produce the steel out of Gallatin. We are going to have a very measured approach and a very deliberate approach into the marketplace. So I expect that we are going to scale up. As we have mentioned throughout the call, we used to track and ensure, I think, the numbers of end markets and we track virtually every end market that you can imagine, of all of the end markets we look at virtually every one of them is projected to grow. In fact, our estimated growth for full year 2022 is about 6% in terms of overall shipment increase. So we see that as an opportunity. And again we expect Gallatin to continue to ramp up and made its objectives and hit the nameplate investment, which is about 1.4 million tons of additional capacity. But Rex, any other color would like to share in terms of that ramp up?

K. Rex Query
Executive Vice President Sheet and Tubular Products at Nucor

Yeah, Timna, thanks for the question. Regarding the visibility we have good visibility. I mean, we talk with our customers weekly. And with the correction that we are seeing right now on the sheet side with with what you have seen in some of the pricing what led up to that is we entered 2020 with COVID and things started to contract and shut down and 2021 was the recovery so to speak from that standpoint. So you saw demand increase, considerably pricing run off. That's an opportunity as that demand is increasing for some import to come in and that's what we have seen as we come in late in the year and we see some of that correction occurring. But the thing we keep hearing right now is this is a short-term temporal correction in the underlying demand, much like Al mentioned in those sectors. Those were key sectors. The automotive sector that Jim Frias mentioned as well. What we hear from our customers is they do expect 2022 overall to be a fairly strong year from demand. So that's what we hear from our customers when we see this temporal correction. And as Leon just stated about Gallatin, it's really an opportunity is we are getting some work done there. That team has been in construction mode for quite some time now. So we are able to ramp that up as we see fit. And so what we would be looking for, we are going to look at for that demand. It's not a price standpoint, it's the demand. We are going to make sure we take care of and service our customers.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Timna, one thing I would add to that is, to keep in mind, we are a bit more hot band centric than some of our competitors and that's where most the imports have come in. And if you look at what we have done over the past few years, we have been adding galvanizing lines, we're ramping it up at Arkansas right now. We started went up at Gallatin the year before that. We have got one in Mexico now that's consuming substrate, part of the subsidy comes out of our Berkeley mill and we are getting ready announced another galv line soon. So we recognize that that's a part of our portfolio that would perform better and we are quite so weighed to hot band. So we expect to keep doing things to try and deal with that. But that's the reasons why we are being impacted where we are is our reliance on the hot band market.

Timna Tanners
Analyst at Wolfe Research

That makes sense. Thanks. My other question was just on contracts into 2022. I know that there was a lot of chatter about moving to shrink the discounts against CRU. And in the past you've helped us understand Nucor's breakdown of contract business and how to think about it. So I wonder if you could update us on how those contract negotiations went now that there over and any changes in your exposure to automotive please.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Yeah, maybe I will start with the automotive and Rex, you can update on the contracts. For a long time, we have been in that 1.5 million, 1.6 million ton a year range in the automotive side. Our expectation and our stated goals are to double that to around 3 million tons. And so what I would tell you in a year that was way off because of the chip shortages in 2021 somewhere in that 12.5 million, 13 million units Nucor share in automotive grew and that is going to continue to grow. And so I can tell you, there is a lot of excitement about Nucor's capabilities being the first EAF to be able to produce a full generation 3 steel in Hickman as well as what the opportunity and capability of the West Virginia sheet mill will be able to do in terms of transforming a differentiated clean steel, net zero steel into the OEMs and so we are committed to move there. At the same time, our goals are not to get overly weighted. We are not looking to move to 20% or 25% of our overall mix in automotive, but to be in that 10% to 12% range I think is probably about the right number today. Rex, you want to touch on contracts?

K. Rex Query
Executive Vice President Sheet and Tubular Products at Nucor

Yeah. I will finish up on the Hickman galv line. Really just pleased with what's occurred there the start up of that. It's going to be an automotive capable and focused galv line with the additional or the extra high strength. So we will be able to feed into that. So that's a step for sure into that and the new Midwest mill as Leon mentioned. Automotive is going to be significant portion of what we look for in that business for that. So you will see that growth occurring. On the contract side, we are -- contract season I would say it was what we expected. We had going into it, some strength in the marketplace from a demand standpoint. So the things from great extra some of those things, but we are -- discussed with our customers, but at the same time, you got to look at the total package, if you will of what they see is value. So, it's more than just what those pieces are, its price, it's delivery, and service. So our contract season for us, we finished very typical with what we target for contract CIS, both on the service center side as well as overall. So we are in the 80% range in overall target for us, so fairly typical from a volume standpoint as we finish up contract season for heading into 2022.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

And we had very few customers that chose not to renew, isn't that correct.

K. Rex Query
Executive Vice President Sheet and Tubular Products at Nucor

Yeah. And in fact I would tell you we had more requests for increase volume. So, I have seen some of the information of not wanting in their contracts, those types of things. We did not experience that as as a company. In fact, it was the other way around. We have performed in a really tight market for our customers and we have the interest in renewing contracts, that's what we saw for this season.

Timna Tanners
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. Thanks guys.

K. Rex Query
Executive Vice President Sheet and Tubular Products at Nucor

Thanks.

Operator

And our next question comes from Michael Glick with JPMorgan.

Michael Glick
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Hey, a couple of questions on the market. You mentioned you are hot band exposure in right now, we are looking at historically wide spreads between hot rolled and value-added products. Do you expect that spread to contract back to where it has been historically or do you think there is something special going on to keep those spreads wider than we have seen historically?

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

When you say value added products, what are you referring to?

Michael Glick
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

A cold rollover and coated products.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Got it. Mike, I would tell you, I think the overall trend is you are going to see that gap shrink. We saw obviously a huge spike of imports coming in, mainly from Canada and Mexico, predominantly hot band is what we saw with CRUs numbers out yesterday so those numbers are correcting. And so I think you are going to see a a closer level set to norm. But what's norm, right? Coming off a historic year like we had in '21. I think there's three things of Nucor's touched on over really the last year. If you look at our industry over the last 12, 18 to 24 months, there has been significant shifts in consolidation, rationalization and trade. If you think about just five years, six years ago, we had about 55 cases that were one in carbon steel. Today that's over a 110. The spread case's different, but obviously the door opened up with the the massive spread. So, well, I think there is some correction. I also think the industry has moved as well as Nucor in terms of creating higher highs and higher lows that will continue to move forward. In terms of the overall, where that ends up, I am not going to speculate, I would tell you that with a healthy functioning market, it's going to find its equilibrium. And at the end of the day, supply and demand will always be the drivers to how we price our products.

Michael Glick
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

And then my second question will also be just kind of bigger picture, the focus on potential capacity curtailments has been on the blast furnace side, but I presume technology today on the flat [Technical Issues] side has improved pretty considerably since the late 1980s. I mean, do you see any industry EAF flat rolled mills nearing the end of their relative useful lives given the dilutive impacts on portfolio returns and there are higher scrap and labor costs and a fleet of new mills coming on?

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Look, I can only speak to Nucor and I would just tell you Nucor has had a long history of what five and a half decades worth of reinvesting back into our mills. So as those mill to generate the returns and the EBITDA and the margins, we make sure we reinvest for the long term and all of those assets. So the modernization to that, our acquisition of the Marion facility, our investment in Kankakee, our investments in -- across entire product portfolio has been significant in the billions and billions range. And so from a Nucor perspective, I would tell you not at all. Some of our oldest mills are the highest generating returns that we have in our entire portfolio and it's because we do a great job of reinvesting our teams, do an amazing job of keeping the maintenance and up keep and staying on the latest trends for the improvements in technology to implement to ensure not only the safest delivery of that steel, but also the lowest cost output to those steel products for our customers.

Michael Glick
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Got it. Thank you.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Okay. Thank you, Michael.

Operator

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I will turn the conference back to Mr. Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.

Leon J. Topalian
President and Chief Executive Officer at Nucor

Thank you. As we conclude our call today, I just want to thank the entire Nucor family for delivering the safest year in our history and the most profitable year in our history. Thank you. And I look forward to continuing the exceptional performance across all of our businesses in 2022. To our customers, thank you for the trust and the partnership as we continue to build the capabilities required to differentiate Nucor as the supplier of choice. And finally to our shareholders, we are proud of the record returns provided in 2021. However, we are not resting on our past performance. The Nucor team is focused on maximizing our profitability and continuing to be great stewards of the valuable shareholder capital you entrust us with. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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