CMS Energy Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript


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Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Srikanth Maddipat
    Treasurer, Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations
  • Garrick J. Rochow
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Rejji P. Hayes
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CMS Energy 2021 Year-End Results. The earnings release issued earlier today and the presentation used in this webcast are available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section. [Operator Instructions] Just a reminder, there will be a rebroadcast of this conference call beginning today at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time and running through February 10. This presentation is also being webcast and is available on CMS Energy's website in the Investor Relations section.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Sri Maddipati, Treasurer and Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Srikanth Maddipat
Treasurer, Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations at CMS Energy

Thank you, Rocco. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Garrick Rochow, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rejji Hayes, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding the risks and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix and posted on our website.

Now, I'll turn the call over to Garrick.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you, Sri, and thank you everyone for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that the team continued to deliver strong performance in 2021, demonstrated consistent results across the Triple Bottom Line for our coworkers, customers, communities and you, our investors. Allow me to take a few minutes to share the big wins this team accomplished in 2020. It is a point of pride that CMS was named the number one utility in the U.S. by Forbes for women and for workplace diversity. It starts with our coworkers and we know the companies that value and practice diversity, equity and inclusion deliver stronger performance. Our commitment to people, our coworkers and customers wasn't high year all year.

For our coworkers we deliver the 11th straight year of first quartile employee engagement. For our customers we delivered first quartile customer experience and launched several programs which support our most vulnerable and prepare all for a cleaner future with EVs and renewable energy generation. This year's highlights include the expansion of our voluntary green pricing program, which allows for an incremental 1,000 megawatt of owned renewable and our PowerMIFleet EV program to meet the demand of Michigan businesses, governments and schools as they electrify their fleet. And just this week we announced, along with General Motors, the plan to power three existing auto plants with 100% clean energy for our voluntary green pricing program.

And I know yes, yes, I know all of you want to hear about our IRP. Our clean energy plan also known as our IRP places us in a solid leadership position on the transformation to clean energy. It has a out of coal by 2025 would achieved 60% carbon emissions reduction. I'm pleased with the progress we are seeing in the regulatory process. I look forward to land in the IRP in 2022. I also want to share the progress we have made with our gas systems. Our commitment to be net-zero methane by 2030 is industry-leading. We are making our gas systems safer and cleaner by replacing old main and services with modern materials. This year we reduced the methane emissions by more than 445 metric ton and executed on our best year ever for main replacement. This stand to reduce methane extends beyond our system with exciting new programs which will make a positive impact on the planet.

We recently announced a plan to build and own our first renewable natural gas facility with a Michigan Dairy Farm which is included in our pending gas rate case. This facility would be a regulated asset and the emissions reduction will remove the equivalent of 4,000 gasoline fuel vehicles from the road annually. Clearly, we are on our way to a safe and clean gas system.

Finally, I want to talk a little bit about Michigan, our home state, our service territory. In both our gas and electric business, we are seeing new service connections up over 2020 and 2019 above pre-pandemic levels. In fact, we have not seen this level of new electric service connections in the last 10 years. We also attracted 105 megawatts of new industrial loads to our service territory, which brings with 4,000 new jobs and more than $1 billion of investment, and we are expecting even more new load growth in the state. The work we did at the end of the year on two important growth mechanisms further enhanced Michigan's competitive position.

We filed an economic development rate in November, which was quickly approved by the Michigan Public Service Commission in December. We also work closely with the legislature, business groups and the governor's office on a package economic development incentive build that pass with bipartisan support signed by our governor in December. With these improvements I expect further announcements this year on several new projects. For you, our investors, I'm pleased to share we delivered our financial targets with another year of 7% adjusted EPS growth. We continued our long track record of managing costs and keeping prices affordable in the CE Way. $55 million of cost savings were realized in 2021.

When I step back and reflect on 2021, it is this strong execution and result that you and we expect and it meets our commitment which Triple Bottom Line positioning our business for sustainable long-term growth. Strong execution leads to strong results. In 2021 we mark another year of premium growth. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.65 in 2021 at the high end of our guidance range and up 7% from 2020 and in January the Board approved an annual dividend increase to $1.84 per share. In addition to raising our annual dividend in 2022, I'm pleased to share that we are raising our 2022 adjusted full year guidance to $2.85 to $2.89 from $2.85 to $2.87 per share.

I have confidence in our plan for 2022 and our longstanding ability to manage the work and deliver industry-leading growth. Longer term, we remain committed to growing adjusted EPS for the high end of our 6% to 8% growth range. Looking forward, we continue to see long-term dividend growth of 6% to 8%. The targeted payout ratio of about 60% over time. And finally, I'm pleased to share that we have rolled forward our five-year utility customer investment plan increasing our prior plan by over $1 billion to $14.3 billion through 2026.

On Slide 5, we've highlighted our new five-year $14.3 billion customer investment plan. This translate 7% annual rate base growth and supports the the two key focus areas of our strategy, making our electric and gas systems safer and more reliable, and paving the way with clean energy future the net zero carbon and methane emissions. You all know that about 40% of our investment mix is aimed at renewable generation, grid modernization and main and service replacements on our gas system that support the clean energy transformation. Furthermore, we continue to increase our investments in what our customers count on us for every single day safe and reliable electric and natural gas systems.

You will also see that we continue to plan conservatively and have ample upside in projects not factored in this plan, such as our IRP and voluntary green pricing program. We remain focused on the regulatory process as we make investment on behalf of our customers. In December, we received an order in our electric rate case. It offered several opportunities for us to improve our case process. We are hard at work as we prepare our next case. This order did support our plan by maintaining our existing 9.9% ROE, increasing our regulatory equity ratio by 34 basis points and approving $54 million in revenue requirement, exclusive of $27 million of lower depreciation approved prior to the order. We expect to file our next electric rate case early this year and anticipate an initial order on our IRP in April and a final order in our gas rate case expected by October.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rejji.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you, Garrick, and good morning, everyone. As Garrick highlighted, we delivered strong financial performance in 2021 with adjusted net income of $767 million or $2.65 per share, up 7% year-over-year of our 2020 results. I'll note that our adjusted EPS excludes select non-recurring items most notably financial performance of EnerBank, the gain on the sale and related transaction costs, all of which are disclosed in the reconciliation schedule in the appendix of this presentation and posted on our website. The key drivers of our full year financial performance in 2021 will rate relief net of investments coupled with strong volumetric sales in our electric businesses. These sources of positive variance were partially offset by increased operating and maintenance expenses in support of key customer initiatives related to safety, reliability and decarbonization and higher service restoration costs and storm activity.

To this last point on storms, we saw a record level of storms across Michigan in 2021, particularly in the final five months of the year, including December and we still managed to deliver at the high end of our EPS guidance range. Our ability to withstand such headwinds quite literally in the case of 2021 and deliver the financial results we come to expect highlights our track record of planning conservatively, managing the work and relying on the perennial will of our dedicated coworkers. We deliver on the Triple Bottom Line irrespective of the condition.

Moving beyond EPS, on Slide 8, you'll note that we met or exceeded the vast majority of our key financial objectives for the year. It is worth noting that even with the aforementioned headwinds, we still managed to deliver of a $1.8 billion operating cash flow which exceeded our plan by over $80 million due to strong working capital management. The only financial target missed in 2021 is related to our customer investment plan do utility which was budgeted for roughly $2.5 billion and we ended the year just shy of that at $2.3 billion primarily due to the timing of select renewable projects, which were largely into 2022 and 2023. To close the books on 2021, we successfully completed our financing plan ahead of schedule as noted during our third quarter earnings call, issuing no equity during the year given the EnerBank sale, while maintaining solid investment grade credit metrics.

Moving to our 2022 guidance on Slide 9, we are raising our 2022 adjusted earnings guidance to $2.85 to $2.89 per share from $2.85 to $2.87 per share, which implies premium annual growth off our 2021 results, as Garrick highlighted. As you can see in the segment details, our EPS growth will primarily be driven by the utility as it has the past several years and we also anticipate a return to normal operations at enterprises this financial performance in 2021 was largely impacted by an extended outage at DIG late in the fourth quarter.

To elaborate on the glide path to achieve our 2022 adjusted EPS guidance range as you'll note on the waterfall chart on Slide 10, we'll plan for normal weather which in this case amounts to a penny per share of positive year-over-year variance. Additionally, we anticipate $0.05 of EPS pickup attributable to rate relief net of investment costs largely driven by our recent electric rate order and the expectation of a constructive outcome in our pending gas case later this year. As a reminder, we also continue to see the residual effects of tax benefits from our 2020 gas rate settlement.

As we look at our cost structure in 2022 you'll note approximately $0.21 per share of positive variance attributable to continued cost savings from productivity, driven by the CE Way and other cost reduction initiatives, as well as a return to more normalized levels of service restoration expense. As noted earlier, we're also assuming a resumption of normalized operating conditions in enterprises in the penultimate bar on the right hand side of the chart, coupled with usual conservative assumptions around weather normalized sales. As always, we'll adapt to changing conditions and circumstances throughout the year, mitigate risk and increase the likelihood of meeting our operational and financial objectives.

Moving to Slide 11 which denotes our near and long-term financial objectives, in addition to the adjusted earnings and dividend per square target, as Garrick noted earlier, from a balance sheet perspective, we continue to target solid investment grade credit ratings and we'll continue to manage our key credit metrics accordingly. To that end, given the attractive valuation achieved in the EnerBank sale and our successful closing of the transaction in the fourth quarter, we do not anticipate issuing any equity through 2024 despite the increase in our five-year customer investment plan for $14.3 billion. Beyond '24, we expect to issue up to $250 million of equity per year in 2025 and 2026.

As for 2022 financings, our mains are limited debt issuances at the utility and the settlement of existing equity forward contracts, the details of which you can find in the appendix of our presentation. Our model is served and will continue to serve all stakeholders well. Our customers receive safe, reliable and clean energy at affordable prices, while our coworkers remain engaged, well trained and then outward in our purpose-driven organization and our investors benefit from consistent industry-leading financial performance. We're often asked whether we can sustain our consistent industry-leading growth in the long-term given the widespread concerns about inflation, supply chain and natural gas prices, among other risks. And our answer remains the same, irrespective of the circumstances we view it as our job do the warring for you. Sustainable and agile cost management has been one of the key pillars of success over the past several years.

And as you can see in the breakout of our cost structure on Slide 12, there remain ample opportunities to reduce costs across the business. As you'll note on the right hand side of the slide, we estimate over $200 million of episodic cost savings opportunities with coal facility retirements and the exploration high priced power purchase agreements or PPAs. In fact, our PPA with the Palisade move their facility will expire in April this year, which will provide approximately $90 million on savings to our customers. These cost savings are above and beyond what we will aim to achieve annually largely through the CE Way, our lean operating system, which as Garrick noted earlier, was a key driver in our achievement of $55 million in cost savings in 2021 and $100 million worth in 2020. Given our track record of reducing costs, we're highly confident that we'll be able to execute our capital plan delivering substantial value for customers and investors.

To conclude my remarks, on Slide 13, we have refreshed our sensitivity analysis on key variables for your modeling assumption. As you'll note, with reasonable planning assumptions and our track record of risk mitigation, the probability of large variances from our plan are minimum. And with that, I'll hand it back to Garrick for his final remarks before Q&A.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you, Rejji. Our simple investment thesis as we stood the test of time and continues to be our approach going forward. It is grounded in a balanced commitment to all our stakeholders and enable us to continue to deliver on our financial objectives. As we've highlighted today, we've achieved another year of strong performance in 2021, executing on our commitment with Triple Bottom Line and are pleased with our strong results. I'm confident on our great position to continue our momentum throughout 2022 and beyond. We look forward to updating you as we head into another exciting year.

With that, Rocco please open the lines for Q&A.

Questions and Answers

Operator

Thank you very much guys. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Good morning, guys.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Good morning.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Good stuff this morning. Couple of questions here, if I may. First, Garrick, you're guiding to the top end of 6% to 8%, which was a kind of a change in language post transformation and now you kind of break out more details the upside potential for non-IRP capex. Just to confirm, is this upside included in the updated language around the growth rate? Maybe another way to ask is, if you're already at the top end, you have $4 billion to $5 billion of incremental spending items with and sort of outside of the IRP. How do we think about this growth rate in the context of the upside spending opportunities you're highlighting this morning?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. Great question, Shahriar. And let me offer this real clarity and offer a little bit of context. And so we're pleased with 2021 and deliver on the high end of guidance. And as I've shared previously, we've got a lot of momentum coming into 2022 and our raising guidance should offer much confidence to the investment community on our strength here in 2022 and our confidence delivering in 2022. I'll remind you that our 6% to 8% again towards the high end of that range that's all for 2020 base and so that's our projection going forward. You know we plan conservatively. And so again you see a lot of upside in that capital plan, the IRP, the VGP type work. And so again, what we've those and as those materialize, we don't want to presume excess than those. That's why we plan conservatively. But again, we expect to be the high end of that 2022 base. And so -- and that's the nature of our growth pattern going forward. And I don't -- Rejji wants to offer some additional comments there as well.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. Good morning, Shahriar. Thanks for the questions. The only thing I first comment just to be our desk for the avoidance of doubt is that the guidance toward the high end of that 6% to 8% off the 2022 base that just assumes the capital plan we rolled out today of $14.3 billion of that five-year period and the assumption of no equity through 2024. And so these other opportunities on the outside looking and the Garrick noted that the IRP, the voluntary green pricing program or VGP those would give us even more confidence in delivering on that plan. So again delivery toward the high-end of 2022 is just based on the $14.3 billion of capital and the assumption of no equity through 2024. Those are the key drivers.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Got it. And then just a follow-up. The rate base growth through '26 is now 7%. It's a little bit of a slight change from prior year's language of quote unquote greater than 7% it's subtle. Is there sort of a large numbers taken effect here just as we're thinking about modeling?

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. You certainly do you have that because we're compounding off of a higher base, but it's a solid 7%, Shahriar. So I wouldn't read too much into it.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Perfect. And then just lastly from me, in terms of the disclosures for '25 through '26 on the equity side, obviously, you're restoring back to historical $250 million per year. I'm sure Rejji you're thinking about this. But do you see sort of any opportunities to maybe mitigate, find some optimization on the financing side, given that you're predominantly 100% regulated, maybe a way to flex the balance sheet and credit metrics, is there a way you can offset this?

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

We'll see. I mean, the current base case for modeling purposes should be $250 million per year in 2025 and 2026. But we will see in the appendix, Shahriar, we are assuming about over $10.5 billion of operating cash flow generation over the next five years. And so if we see upside to that, well, that certainly gives us more financial flexibility. We've also really done a nice job executing very attractive, I'll say, equity-like securities that get an equity like the hybrids we've been doing from time to time. We had a perpetual preferred last year that got nice equity credit. And so, we'll see if there are opportunities there. But the current working assumption should be at $250 million per year in those outer years '25 and '26.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Okay, perfect, guys. Congrats on the execution. This is really good. Thanks.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities

Hi, good morning.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Good morning. How are you Jeremy?

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities

Good, thanks. It seems very clear from the slides, there is various capex upside that we could see, but just wondering if you could dive in a little bit more for the timing on when these items could make their way into plan and what we should be watching for there.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

I assume you're talking about the incremental items, just to clarify your question.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities

Yeah, the incremental capex opportunity.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Certainly. So, as you know, we're in the midst of an integrated resource plan and we don't want to presume. Although we're confident in that plan, we don't want to presume the Covert facility and a big facility will move into the utility. There's certainly a lot of good indicators around that. But nonetheless, I want to make sure that that's where it lands and we will see a final order in the IRP by June of this year. And so again assuming success there we would anticipate the Covert facility in 2023 and then the DIG facilities out in 2025 from an incremental opportunity. Our VGP, again that subscription-based based on customers, we saw some positive traction in that we announced this week with General Motors. But again that construction would be as those fill out and as those are subscribe that construction period would be in '24 to '27. And so that's the nature of -- as that materializes it would show up in that range.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities

Got it. That's helpful. And if these come to fruition, would this impact, I guess, the funding plan on the equity side?

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Jeremy, hey, this is Rejji. And we had said before, in the event the IRP gets approved and we don't believe we need to materially change our equity issuance needs. Now, the VGP plus the IRP if we have those high-class problems, we would potentially have to re-calibrate. But to be clear that would only be outside of 2024 and so you think about the timing of the capital investments. Covert potentially be before 2024. And again, we feel good about not needing to issue equity even in that scenario before '24 where we may need to re-calibrate is if we get the IRP and good momentum on the VGP those outer years '25 and beyond we may have to take a second look there. But for now, again, feel very good about the working assumptions of this plan.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities

Got it. That's very helpful. And just a quick last one if I could. With regards to the electric rate case here. The outcome might have been a bit lighter than expected. And just wondering if you could comment a bit more, I guess, on the go forward expectations in Michigan as far as the regulatory construct there as well as the specific drivers in 2022 that using to employ to kind of offset some of that thoughts.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Rejji and I will tag team this, let me be very clear, I feel good about the regulatory constructing here in Michigan. And when I look at this rate case there are two things to take away from it. One, there is an investor read through on a strong and constructive ROE 9.9, has been constructive, especially when compared with other jurisdictions, has good solid equity thickness, in fact, our regulatory equity ratio grew by 34 basis points that just again speaks to the nature of this commission in this regulatory construct. And again all based in legislation. So, don't forget that piece of it as well. The other piece of opportunity is clear in the order. And as a utility we need to improve our business cases particularly in a forward-looking test year and the additional investments we want to make on behalf of our customer, we didn't do a better job issuing the benefits, as well as the cost when compared to historical that's on us. We own that and you could expect to see in our next electric rate case. So, let me hand it over to Rejji to walk through a little bit of why we have such confidence in 2022.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah, Jeremy. So, as you think about the offset with the order or from the order, clearly it really highlights the benefits of having a four test year. And so where we had this disallowances in that four test year we obviously can't revise our capital known programs and so that's a clear offset from some of the disallowances we saw. And then a couple of things related to '21 and then in this test that give us great confidence. And so as you may recall we had plans to issue equity in 2021 and obviously given the timing of the EnerBank sale we didn't have to issue any equity in that year. And so we've got some the momentum from a share count perspective that's helpful. I continue to feel quite good about weather normalized load. We saw a really nice recovery from commercial industrial sales of the course of '21 and we anticipate seeing some of that in 2022 as well, particularly given the leading indicators that we've seen with respect to new service request which Garrick offered in his prepared remarks and we continue to see upside from our residential customers given the sort of teleworking phenomenon that we think should stick for -- to some extent. And then cost performance, every year I continue to be surprised to the upside by what the organization can deliver. So, last year our plan was about $45 million and we delivered $55 million there and then in 2020, I can assure you, we didn't plan for $100 million of savings and the organization want to got it. And so those are all the drivers that we think will offset some of the downs that we saw in the electric rate order.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, our question comes from Insoo Kim with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Insoo Kim
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Thank you. My first question here guys dealt with a lot of storms, expanding capital opportunities [Technical Issues] just you expensing to -- for restoration and whatnot. Did the more any additional need could be added to your go-forward plans.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thanks, Insoo, and good morning. I want to be real clear with everyone here. We'll have a largest electric reliability capital spend that we've had in our company's history and is actually 40% over 2020. So we're at a good pace in terms of electric reliability. Clearly, as we demonstrated in the electric rate case, there is more to do across our vast system, and so we'll be making requests in this upcoming electric rate case with, of course, better business justification to be able to support that. Clearly, when you look at our system and the amount of storms we had this year, there is room to -- for improvement and we're well aligned with this commission and this staff to do just that.

Insoo Kim
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Got it. The second question, just going back to the demand comments you guys made. For 2022, if I understand correctly, you're thinking more of a modest -- flat to modest growth in year-over-year growth, is that correct? And then two just you've talked about the part of the signals, is there any particular segment or industries that you're seeing that out of.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Insoo, this is Rejji. So, yeah, I think your working assumption for blended weather normalized load in the electric side is about right, so call it just slightly up, flat to about a 0.5 point. But again, we continue to be encouraged with what we're seeing on the residential side. So, last year we had -- we recently pretty aggressive return to work and we ultimately saw residential down about 2.5%, a little over that versus 2020. Our plan was much more bearish and so we saw surprisingly the upside versus plan there. Commercial, we have already seen commercial over the case of 2021, up about 3.3%. So effectively back at this point to pre-pandemic levels when you take energy waste reduction into account. And industrial, I'd say, admittedly, is still coming back and that's why we feel good about 2022.

And so when you think about our working assumptions for 2022, we're still assuming a decline for residential versus 2021 about -- somewhere between 1% to 2% commercial, basically flat to slightly up. And then industrial, we still expect to see pretty good growth there around 5%. So that's what on a blended basis gets you to around a 1 point, I'm sorry, excuse me, flat to slightly up about a 0.5 point all. And then the positive signals from new service requests, it's a point to a specific sector, I think, would be challenging. We're pretty diversified in our service territory. But -- and clearly we're seeing good news in auto. Now, again, auto represents a couple of percent of our gross margins, so not a great deal of exposure there, but across most sectors we expect to continue to see Michigan trend well, and as Garrick noted in his prepared remarks, we're seeing some very attractive economic development opportunities on the industrial side. We're not in a position right now to disclose those sectors, but we see a number of, I'll say, a combination of all the new economy sectors looking at Michigan as a place to land. And so we feel very good about the road ahead economically in Michigan.

Insoo Kim
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Thanks. That's good color. Thank you, guys.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, our next question today comes from Michael Sullivan at Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Michael Sullivan
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hey, everyone. Good morning.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Sullivan
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hey, Garrick, just first wanted to ask on level of conviction and ability to potentially settle the IRP in the next couple of weeks or months here.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. Look, so I'm just going to break this down really clearly. I feel good about taking it at full distance. I want to make sure that's very clear. And the way I'm just -- I'm sure my thinking about this is $650 million of savings for our customers that's on the table. There is a 60% reduction in carbon by 2025 over 2005 baseline levels and there is an opportunity for more resilient supply system. Those are the factors of this. And so there is good, there is a win, I've said this before, there's a win here for everyone. And so we feel very strong about taking the full length and get what we need for our customers as well as for our investors. But bottom line, whether it's electric case, gas case or an IRP or to look at opportunities, right now we're in a sweet spot where there is an opportunity to do that. And when there's a win in there for everyone, there is an opportunity to partial settlement or a full settlement. And so we'll look at that and work with the parties to see if something materialize there. But just like there is an opportunity there, all those wins allow us to take at the full distance as well. So, I feel confident either way that we will get what we need for our customers, the planet and for our shareholders. Does that helpful, Michael?

Michael Sullivan
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Super helpful. Thank you. And my other question was, Rejji, I think you mentioned one of the main drivers for the lower than planned capex last year was some shortage on renewables projects, can you just give a little more detail on that.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah, Michael, good morning. Yeah, so we had some renewable projects that we had to push out a little bit. I think the issues around supply chain pretty well publicized across, not just the country, but the planet. And so we saw some of that with respect to our projects. We still expect to get the projects executed over time, but we did have to push them out a little bit. So that was really the primary driver. And I'd say across some projects, there were some idiosyncratic issues that came up, but it was largely related to supply chain matters.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

I'm going to jump in -- can I just jump in on this one as well. I've been involved in large power plants and operations for 25-plus years. I don't think there has been a year in those 25 where I haven't seen projects move from year to year, major projects in terms of outages, in terms of construction timelines deferred. So it's, it's pretty typical in our industry to have a little give and take. And so this supply chain challenge that's in front of us will dissipate over time. I have no doubt about that. But remember this we're retiring coal and so you have to fill that capacity some how. So, these projects aren't going away. It's just a matter of when we plant in what year. And so again this is pretty typical for the work we do year after year this give and take. And so I'm not worried, not concerned and this too will pass.

Michael Sullivan
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Andrew Weisel
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question on the new capex plan, a skew that excludes the $1 billion from the voluntary renewables program. My question is, you've been using that $1 billion number for a little while now. Should that be higher given the new customers you signed up kind of the understanding might be in kind of the later years of the plan, but should that number be a bigger round?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

So, the $1 billion equates to a 1,000 megawatts renewables. And so the way this works is customers have prescribed to that and we have a certain number of subscriptions we build out that. And so the 1,000 megawatt equates to the $1 billion. And so, does that help, Andrew?

Andrew Weisel
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

And remind me how many megawatts are you up till signed up now?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

We've got one -- this program started at 120 megawatt that is fully subscribed and we're now in the second phase of describing the 1,000 megawatts.

Andrew Weisel
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

Okay, got it. So you still got a little way to get to that $1 billion. Okay, great. My next question is, if I compare the old capex plan to the new one, it seems -- I understand there is the roll forward, but it seems like your electric spending is down by about $0.5 billion and gas spending is up by about $1 billion. Is that a conscious shift in strategy or is that just the output of a bottoms up budget building project process?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

It's really a bottoms up piece. And just let me offer a little bit on the gas, back in November of 2020 we got a large pipeline project approved through ENEC, which is the equivalent of a certificate of necessity that is folded into this plan. And so as you might imagine, replacing 56 miles of large transmission pipe the projects around 5, I think it's $550 million in that range. And so that's a big factor that as you build our bottoms-up approach, it shows up in the gas and in vintage of capital five-year plan.

Andrew Weisel
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then just one last one if I could squeeze it in. On the relative growth between the earnings and the dividend, you're targeting the high end of 6% to 8% for earnings, and I know your targeted dividend payout ratio is 60% versus about 64% forward in 2022. You just announced a 5.7% dividend increase, is that a piece that we should expect for the next couple of years so you get to that 50% ratio?

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Andrew, yeah, this is Rejji. So, yeah, I think conceptually you're right in that. You're going to see a decoupling at least in the short term between the earnings growth in the dividend per share growth and so that's what we were showing with this recent increase in the dividend, because we did mention on the heels of the EnerBank sale that we will glide down -- we will glide path down to a low-60s payout ratio. Right now we're kind of mid-60s and we're glide path down over time. So you'll see a little decoupling between the earnings growth, which will be a little strong dividend per share growth, but we still think both are healthy and combined offer very attractive total shareholder return proposition.

Andrew Weisel
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

Definitely. Thank you very much.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, good morning, team.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Hey, thanks.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Good time, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Well done. So, prep, just coming back to a couple of things. The economic development tariffs, just to come to that first here. How do you think about that impacting '22. Just you mentioned pretty strong industrial load obviously is economic development tariffs kind of impact shift those impacts and load activity to earnings that. Can you talk a bit about what that could do? I'd imagine it's not too material, but curious.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. So, let me offer a little more color on these economic. There's two pieces. We are very successful toward the end of the year in established an economic development rate. We filed that in November, and as I said, almost record approval here with the commission and then public service commission and staff which we see is a really good indicator here in Michigan and the opportunity to encourage job growth and jobs here in Michigan. So it's an economic development rate, which is very competitive out there and it's designed for energy intensive customers. The next piece as we worked to achieve economic set of bills that offered incentives to make Michigan competitive and that was offered through again bipartisan support through the legislature signed by the governor and that was close to $1 billion, $1.5 billion of incentives here in the state. And GM made their big announcements nearly $7 billion of investment in Michigan, 4,000 new jobs that is a direct result of that work and so we feel good by the initial the initial valley here. But as Rejji you said there is a nice year in my prepared remarks, there are more that are considering Michigan and so we see a lot of upside from an industrial and jobs growth perspective and ultimately the spillover benefits. But Rejji I don't know if you want to add any additional context to that at all.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

No, I think you laid it out well, Garrick.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

All right. So we'll see what happens this year. Perhaps if I can pivot on Campbell, just super quick if I can. Campbell retirement as you've alluded to several times already, a retirement in the '25 timeframe that's come up a lot in the IRP and represents a substantive portion of the O&M savings. I think it's order of magnitude $60 million. Do you offset for this retirement? And if you think about it is, if push back for instance in an IRP settlement or again how you would think about that fitting into your plan to the extent of which that moves out if you will.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

So, in my earlier comments, just to be really clear $650 million of savings in total requires the retirement of Campbell 1, 2 and 3 and I started my career at that plant. You can't do a partial there just doesn't work and so you need the whole thing. One for the savings fees for our customers, but you can't do a partial retirement. So that's critically important in this equation and in this IRP. The second pieces when you retire at plant like that, you need to backfill in terms of capacity, in terms of energy. And the lowest cost option of that we prove their modeling is through Covert and through the DIG facility. And so again, this is why it all comes together quite nicely. And so it's very clear what's necessary to see this type of savings for our customers to improve the supply side from a resiliency perspective and then also to have a 60% reduction in carbon. So that's how we're approaching it. Again, lot of benefits, lot of wins for everyone and we think we can achieve that and I think we know we can achieve that here in 2022.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Right. And just even further to clarify that, your core base plan because it doesn't reflect Campbell per se, the IRP should we say sort of outside as we talked about from a capital perspective and making that affordable is predicated on Campbell just to segment that apart.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. So, we need Campbell, we need all Campbell retire and again that's not built into our plans nor our five-year plans at all, not the savings, not the capital upside, it's not in the plans so just to be clear there.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Excellent, guys. Well, I wish you the best of luck with what happened in Michigan here. Cheers.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thanks. Julien.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Nick Koemtzopoulos [Phonetic] with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Nick
Analyst at Credit Suisse Group

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Good morning.

Nick
Analyst at Credit Suisse Group

Hey, so most my questions have been answered, but I just wanted to go back to the electric rate case quick, absolutely knowledge, really healthy ROE and equity ratio. The commission did seem to push back on capital costs, specifically with one solar project, I guess, at least for this order. Can you confirm you're moving forward at that project still. How should we think about subsequent approvals in your clean energy generation capital plan, understanding it's obviously imperative for the company's decarbonization goals, but the commission does seem to be taking a slower approach to at least your initial set of projects here. Thanks.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

I don't agree with that conclusion that they're taking a slower approach. The language is really clear in ex parte order and in the electric rate case their support for green energy and in fact that Washington our project and it's clear that it's been supported and from a construction standpoint and a regulatory coverage standpoint. Now, Rejji, will walk through a little bit of financial piece and how we will progress with that project here over the course of 2022 and 2023.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah, Nick. So, again, to Gary's point, we feel very confident that it was really deferred decision by the commission, because they did approve the contract in November before electric rate order. And the only reason it wasn't approved in the order is just given the timing of what he was introduced into the case, but we do expect to get a constructive outcome in a subsequent filing. And so as a result of that to Garrick's point, will continue to execute on the project. And because of the high probability of approval we'll recognize AFUDC equity and debt accounting on this project and so there'll be no P&L drag, if you will and just a little bit of a deferred cash flow or lag on the cash flow side, and so we fully expect to move forward on the project and the unexpected constructive outcome in the subsequent case. Is that helpful?

Nick
Analyst at Credit Suisse Group

Yeah, that's very clear. Appreciate the time today. Thank you.

Operator

Our question today comes from Jonathan Arnold at Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Hi, good morning, guys.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Good morning, Jonathan.

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Just a quick question again on the five-year plan. Thanks for the clarity on what's driving the step up in the gas side, that was clear. I'm just curious on the electric distribution line. I seem to take a pretty meaningful step down in '22 and we're sort of -- I think that explain most of the delta. Can you square that Garrick with your comments about customer growth and new connections and the like, and maybe sort of -- maybe the rate case is probably the answer, just curious there.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. Specifically for new growth both electric connections and we have a deferral mechanism on there and so we can allocate the appropriate amount of capital for growth and then see recovery in a subsequent case. And so that's been a practice we've had at least the last couple of rate cases that allow us to -- it's in three areas, both in new business, asset relocations and demand capital and so that's been very helpful in allowing us to expand our electric capital in year as a result of changes in the environment like great business growth and so that's an important piece. And the other piece that I would just again point back to, our electric reliability spend is robust. It's the largest we've had here across our company 40% over 2020. But I would offer this there is better and more important work we need to do in this next electric rate case. We have more capital that we want to invest on behalf of our customers in electric reliability to offer benefits and improve our performance there and we'll work to engage that into the -- we build that out in the next case. And I know Rejji would offer -- also offer some comments as well.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

Jonathan, the only thing I'd add, you noted that there was a slight dip in the front end of the five-year plan on the distribution spend, you can see the little walk trend. We tend to and has historically been on about $1 billion per year spend rate for all the reliability work that we know needs to get done in our service territory. The dip in 2020 that's attributable to just aligning the spend plan in 2022 with the rate order. We had about around $100 million or so or thereabouts of disallowance in the rate order. And so, obviously, with the four test year we can toggle our plans accordingly. And so that's really what's driving some of that decline in 2022 which is a little off trend.

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Okay, great. That's -- thanks guys.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Travis Miller
Analyst at Morningstar

Good morning. Thank you.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Travis.

Travis Miller
Analyst at Morningstar

Back to our IRP, just thinking about timing post IRP, would you get a decision soon enough or have concrete plans sooner enough to wave anything from the IRP into presume the electric rate case filing this year.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Our electric -- we're going to file our electric rate case here in April timeframe and so that's our plan right now. And so we don't anticipate -- initial order could come out very earliest in April and then a final order in June and so I don't anticipate that will be woven into this electric rate case.

Travis Miller
Analyst at Morningstar

Okay. What is your thought on timing of any specific projects or capital at least generally from the IRP a year out, six months from the decision, what's your thought there?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Well, our intent here is to -- so again I don't want to presume approval. I think that would be -- I want to be in front of the commission on that, but again confidence in a final order by June and let's play this out Covert, DIG into the utility. We look to update our plans, our five-year plans in the kind of the normal cycle to reflect those changes.

Travis Miller
Analyst at Morningstar

Okay, perfect. And then real quick on the enterprises side. Any update to the strategy there.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Enterprises continues to be an important part of our business, although it was really small part of our business. And just as a reminder for everyone on the call, it's about 4% of our earnings mix, again small. And then as DIG and other facilities move into the utility that enterprises group grows even smaller. Right now, it's focused on renewables and customer relationships. And so let me offer a little bit more context around that. For example, company like General Motors, one of the companies that enterprise works with, they have long-term commitment to sustainability across their global footprint. And so they provide creditworthy party and we have a long contract period. We help them find renewable assets throughout the throughout the U.S. And so that's the role we play we see utility like returns or better in that space and again we're not out in the auctions, we are not out -- can squeeze from a margin perspective, it's specifically designed at customer relationships and helping them meet their sustainability targets and so it's narrow it's thoughtful, it's a small part of our business, but important for strategic customers.

Travis Miller
Analyst at Morningstar

Got it. Great, thanks so much. That's all I had.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you.

Operator

And our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Anthony Crowdell
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Hey, good morning. Hopefully, just two quick ones. And I don't know if I'm reading too deep into this, but I think if the '21 actual at $2.65, the range you gave for 2022 of $1.85 to 1.89, the midpoint there is not actually towards the high end of this, it's actually above the high end and this is before any of the additional capital. I think that you're actually not have been trending towards the high end and you're above the high end. Is this just smaller numbers and moving industrial pace here or there or is there more to read through to this?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Well, here's the good news, Anthony. You said $1.85 to $1.89, it's $2.85 to $2.89.

Anthony Crowdell
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Apologies.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

No problem. So, again, we are happy with where we landed this year and we got a lot of momentum coming in this into the year and for some of the reasons that Rejji articulated earlier you may want to jump in and again on this one. But bottom line we've offered guidance there. We feel we've expanded and raise that guidance and feel good about it, really good and confident about landing there. And as I shared earlier likely in the mid-point range, a lot of year left, but in the midpoint of that range we offer today. And so again -- and then after this and really into 2022 that is the base year we will grow at that 6% to 8% towards the high side, but anything else that offer on that Rejji.

Rejji P. Hayes
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at CMS Energy

No, I think you gave the key point, Garrick, which is the 6% to 8% guidance, Anthony, and that sort of confidence toward the high-end that is off of the 2022 base and so I think '23 and beyond. 2022 is a fairly a typical year, again, given the sale of the bank and that's why you see a little bit higher growth in the range of $2.85 to $2.89 off of the 2021 actuals of $2.65. It implies like 7.5% to 9%, but we don't foresee ourselves growing at that clip going forward. So it's just a typical year as we reduced the dilution from the EnerBank sale and redeploy the capital.

Anthony Crowdell
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

What has to happen for you guys to hit the 6%, like why even the 6% there, it you guys are really fully loaded 7% to 8%. I'm just curious what's the scenario where you come commented a 6%, like why not remove it I guess is my question.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Well, I mean, even though the range may seem wide on a percentage basis. It's about $0.04 to $0.05 on average, Anthony. And so we think that that's plenty conservative absolute to give us a little room to land the plane. So we feel good about the guidance range which again I think it's one of the tightest in the sector.

Anthony Crowdell
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Great. And just last from me. I think you said DIG the plant was had an extended outage 2021, just what was the issue and is that plant back in service?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah, the quick answer is back in service. There was a supply line of gas that was feeding into the plant that needed some additional construction work and having been in the gas business for a long time we know once that type of work is done last about 70 years or so. So we feel good about the fact that that was non-recurring and will be back at normal operations going forward for the foreseeable future. But just to be clear, it wasn't our gas line it was from a third party, but that's now fixed and we're up and running.

Anthony Crowdell
Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you.

Operator

And our next question today comes from Paul Patterson at Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Hey, how is it going?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

It's going well, Paul. Thanks.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Just, and I apologize if I missed this, but the normalized storm impact for 2021 that you guys, I guess, the delta that you guys are thinking, I see that you've combining it with customer initiatives. How much was the storm -- what do you thinking in terms of -- how should we think about storms this year, I mean, in 2021 versus in 2022?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Yeah. Paul, thanks for the question. And so we've seen at least over the last four or five years an increase in sort of, I'll say, the volume and intensity of storms. And so service restoration has been somewhat volatile last year I'd say was atypical even relative to the last few years. And so I think if you look back from say pre-pandemic levels to 2020 we were on a spend rate of somewhere around $70 million to $80 million and then 2021, we were a multiple on top of that I think almost 2 to 3 times that, not 3 times, but closer to 2 times and so we just don't foresee a level of service restoration at those levels in 2022. So we expect to be sort of -- I think we haven't rates about $65 million. So we may be a little north of that when all said and done this year, but we certainly don't think we'll see numbers in excess of $150 million, which is where we were last year. So that's how we're thinking about it sort of more towards where we are in rates and maybe slightly above that. Is that helpful?

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

That was helpful. And then just with respect to COVID, I mean, it looks like -- you guys have done very well during it and and it looks -- you gave a lot of information on the usage and everything, but I'm just wondering is a kind of or we -- is COVID kind of a non-issue at this point should we think about in terms of 2022 and going forward. I mean, obviously you can't, if you take the pandemic, but let me even sort of saying, I mean, how do you think of COVID impacting stuff I guess in 2022?

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Well, I don't want to minimize COVID or the health effects to people, and so we're sensitive to my response here. But bottom line what we've -- in Michigan here, we're seeing all the economic indicators are headed in the right direction. And then people have figured out a way to be able to work and live and even play in the midst of a pandemic. And as a company we found ways to work safely with the appropriate precautions in place. And so again we're not seeing what we saw at the beginning of the pandemic, which was economic shutdowns and other factors influencing load, it's really on the upswing and all economic indicators are again headed in the right direction. And so I would put it in more of a perspective that we figured out how to work within the context of COVID.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Okay, great. I really appreciate it. Thanks so much.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Garrick Rochow for any closing remarks.

Garrick J. Rochow
President and Chief Executive Officer at CMS Energy

Thank you, Rocco. And I want to thank everyone for joining us today for our fourth quarter earnings call. Take care and stay safe.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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