Duke Realty Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
April 28, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Duke achieved record occupancy of 99.1% in-service and 99.4% stabilized, along with all-time high rent growth (29% cash, 49% GAAP), which underpinned upward revisions to its 2022 guidance.
  • First-quarter fundamentals remained robust with 95 million sq ft of demand outpacing 85 million sq ft of deliveries, prompting Duke to boost its rent growth forecast from 10–15% to the high teens–low 20% range.
  • The development platform started $339 million of speculative projects in Q1, expanded its pipeline to $1.64 billion (52% pre-leased), and raised full-year development start guidance to $1.45–$1.65 billion.
  • Duke increased its disposition guidance to $900 million–$1.1 billion—lowering Amazon exposure to 5.7%—to fund higher-return development opportunities and maintain capital flexibility.
  • Core FFO grew 12.8% year-over-year to $0.44 per share in Q1, and full-year core FFO guidance was raised over 10% to $1.88 per share, driven by strong rent growth, occupancy gains and new developments.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Duke Realty Q1 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 17 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Duke Realty First Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Ron Hubbard. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our Q1 earnings call. Joining me today are Jim Connor, Chairman and CEO Mark Denien, Chief Financial Officer Steve Schnur, Chief Operating Officer and Nick Anthony, Chief Investment Officer. Before we make our prepared remarks, let me remind you that certain statements made during this conference call may be forward looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. These risks and other factors could adversely affect our business in future results.

Speaker 1

For more information about those risk factors, we would refer you to our 10 ks or 10 Q that we have on file with the SEC and the company's other SEC filings. All forward looking statements speak only as of today, April 28, 2022, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. A reconciliation to GAAP of the non GAAP financial measures that we provide on this call is included in our earnings release. Our earnings release and supplemental package were distributed last night after the market closed. If you do not receive a copy, these documents are available on the Investor Relations section of our website atdukerealty.com.

Speaker 1

You can also find our earnings release supplemental package, SEC reports and an audio webcast of this call in the Investor Relations section of our website. Now for our prepared statement, I will turn it over to Jim Connor.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ron. Good afternoon, everyone. The fundamentals of our business continue to be at all time record levels. We achieved record high occupancy levels in both our stabilized in service and total in service portfolio, Record rent growth on a cash and GAAP basis. Our development platform had nearly $340,000,000 of development starts.

Speaker 2

Our coastal Tier 1 exposure is approaching 50%. Our portfolio mark to market increased to 48%. All of these factors contributed to raising key components of our 2022 guidance, including over 10% growth in FFO, 11% Now let me turn it over to Steve to cover some of the market fundamentals and our operations. Thanks, Jim. On the fundamental side, 1st quarter demand was 95,000,000 square feet, making it 5 of the last 6 quarters of demand in the 100,000,000 square foot or greater range.

Speaker 2

1st quarter deliveries were about 85,000,000 square feet, An expected positive demand supply gap began this year. We have revised our 2022 rent growth forecast for our markets From the 10% to 15% range to the high teens to low 20% range. On the long term demand side, CBRE recently affirmed outlook for 1,400,000,000 square feet of demand through 2026, with no periods of negative net absorption through 2,032. Although we are paying close attention to headline data such as inflation, fuel and labor costs and a resurgence of bottlenecks occurring at some Asian ports, We have yet to see an impact to demand in our portfolio. Based on recent dialogues with our customers, RFPs, the lease space And the most recent Logistics Manager Index at record levels, the near term outlook is as strong as it has been in this cycle.

Speaker 2

Long term, we believe the secular themes for greater inventory resiliency and e commerce are still very much intact And should continue to drive short term and long term demand. Turning to our own portfolio, we continue to see these positive indicators Evidenced by 62 leases executed during the quarter, totaling over 7,700,000 square feet. Demand was broad based across categories with a number of leases between 250,000 and 850,000 Square Feet With customers such as FedEx, Samsung, Walgreens, Cardinal Health, International Paper, Sealy Mattress, It's a major 3PLs and a global e commerce customer. Of note, we had only 2 spaces greater than 100,000 square feet Our in service portfolio available at the end of the Q1. And I'm happy and pleased to report that both are now leased.

Speaker 2

Our lease activity for the quarter, combined with the strong fundamentals I discussed, led to continued growth in rents on 2nd generation leases I'm 29% cash and 49% GAAP, both records. I'd also point out that only 18% of this lease activity was in coastal markets. Across our entire in service portfolio, the portfolio lease mark to market is now 48% on a GAAP basis. We believe this presents strong visibility for significant rent growth for the foreseeable future. We finished the quarter with the total in service portfolio 99.1 percent leased and the stabilized portfolio 99.4% leased, again, both all time records.

Speaker 2

On the development front, we had a tremendous first quarter starts breaking ground on 8 speculative projects totaling $339,000,000 in cost. All of these projects are in well located submarkets. Our confidence in leasing speculative space continues to be very strong. As evidence of the 5,600,000 square feet of speculative developments placed in service over the past year, those projects were originally 3% leased at Start and are now 100 percent leased. Our development pipeline at quarter end totaled $1,640,000,000 With 63% allocated to coastal Tier 1 markets and 85% allocated to overall Tier 1 markets.

Speaker 2

This pipeline is 52% pre leased and we expect to generate value creation margins over 70%. Looking forward, Our pipeline for future development starts is very strong. Our land balance at quarter end totaled $582,000,000 With an additional $235,000,000 in covered land, 93% of this land bank is located in coastal Tier 1 markets. Coupled with the land options we have and other land in our operating portfolio, we can support our current level of annual starts for the next 3 years. It is also important to note for modeling NAV that the market value of the land we own is about 2 times our book basis.

Speaker 2

And on average, we've only owned this land for about 1 year. With the fundamentals I outlined in our best in class local operating teams, Our outlook for new development starts strong. This is reflected by our revised guidance, up about 20% from our original midpoint. I'll now turn it over to Nick Anthony to cover acquisitions and dispositions.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Steve. I'll start with dispositions. As noted on the last call, early this quarter, we contributed to the 3rd tranche of Amazon assets to our joint venture with CBRE Investment Management, For which our share of the proceeds was $269,000,000 Coupled with the outright sale of another Amazon facility in Tampa, Dispositions totaled $325,000,000 for the quarter. As a result, our Amazon exposure was 5.7% at the end of the quarter. Given the strong prices for logistics real estate and particularly for a few of our strategically located assets, We are seeing an increase in reverse inquiries for some of our assets at prices we previously did not expect, Did not have an original plans to sell in 2022.

Speaker 3

As a result, we have increased our guidance for dispositions to a range of $900,000,000 to 1,100,000,000 This will provide attractively priced capital to fund our increased development expectations. On the acquisition side, we purchased One facility totaling 75,000 square feet in the Southern California Mid County submarket. The building was vacant and given current leasing prospects, we expect It's a state wide at a 4.6 percent yield. I will now turn it over to Mark to discuss our financial results and guidance update.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Core FFO for the quarter was $0.44 per share, which represents 12.8% growth over the Q1 of 2021. The increased core FFO per diluted share was primarily driven by rental rate growth, increased occupancy and portfolio growth in the highly leased developments. AFFO totaled $166,000,000 for the quarter.

Speaker 4

Our best in class low level capital expenditures Our strong NOI growth continues to generate significant AFFO growth on a share adjusted basis, even in excess of our FFO growth. Same property NOI growth on a cash basis for the Q1 of 2022 compared to the Q1 of 2021 was 7.3%. The growth in same property NOI was due to increased occupancy and rent growth as well as the burn off of some free rent compared to the Q1 of 2021. We do expect this growth to moderate a bit for the remainder of the year based mainly on less free rent burn off. Same property NOI growth on a net effective basis was 5.2% for the As a result of our strong start to 2022, we announced revised core FFO guidance for 2022 to a range of 1.88 represents an over 10.4% increase over 2021 results.

Speaker 4

We also announced revised guidance for growth in AFFO on a share adjusted basis range between 9.1% and 13% with a midpoint of 11% compared to the previous range of 8.4% 12.3 percent. For same property NOI growth on a cash basis, we've increased our guidance to the range of 5.8% to 6.6% from the previous range of 5.4% to 6.2%. This increase is mainly a result of expectations of Continued strong rental rate growth and occupancy for the remainder of the year similar to levels that we experienced in the Q1. On the development guidance, the market fundamentals or submarkets continue to be very supportive of speculative developments and coupled with our lease up track record, we are revising guidance Development starts to be between $1,450,000,000 $1,650,000,000 compared to the previous range of $1,200,000,000 to 1,400,000,000 This increase in development starts to provide a key source of growth in 2023 and beyond. We've updated a couple other components of our guidance based on our more Outlook as detailed in our range

Speaker 5

of estimates exhibit included in

Speaker 4

our supplemental information on our website. I'll now turn it back to Jim for a few closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mark. In closing, even with some rising macro headwinds on inflation, interest rate and geopolitical side of things, We believe the multiple secular tailwinds driving our business and overall positive GDP and consumer spending Seth, we'll continue to provide opportunities for strong leasing and development. This combined with the substantial amount of embedded rent growth in our existing portfolio gives Great confidence in our ability to generate double digit growth in FFO and AFFO for our shareholders, Not just in 2022, but in the foreseeable future, which should generate a commensurate level of growth in our actual dividend. I want to thank you all for your continued support at Duke Realty. We will now open it up for questions.

Speaker 2

I would ask that you limit your questions to 1 or perhaps 2 short questions.

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

I guess just thinking about the guidance, there's a lot of several areas where Clearly, the outlook is better fundamentally, more development starts. Can you just talk about maybe some of the things that may have been a bigger drag than thinking about as you kind of weigh the positives and the negatives if there was anything?

Speaker 4

Hey, Jamie, I'll start. This is Mark. There were no really big drags. I guess maybe the only thing you could kind of point to that's changed Negatively on this year's FFO number will be our increase in dispositions guidance. Most of that increase in dispositions guidance go to fund the development pipeline.

Speaker 4

So that's modestly dilutive this year, but it will be certainly accretive in the long run as we trade A low cap rate on disposition sales for higher yielding development assets, but that was probably a little bit of a drag from where we were last But you know what, I think we're pretty optimistic to start the year and it's only better now.

Speaker 6

And then if you think about, Let's say we do end up head into some sort of recession. Can you just talk about portfolio credit quality today And just how you think whether it's earnings growth or occupancy or even leasing spreads would hold up, if you did we did see a pullback in the economy

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Jamie, it's Jim. I would make a couple of observations. I think we can all point back To roughly 2 years ago at the start of the pandemic, which was a great stress test for our portfolio and the quality of our credit tenants. And reminding everybody 18 months to 24 months ago, we were collecting 99.99 percent of our rents. So Not that anybody wants to see that kind of thing again, but that's the kind of stress test that gives us confidence that in any sort of a downturn Out there in the future, our portfolio will continue to perform.

Speaker 2

And then as Steve pointed out earlier, Even if the market softens to the point of where there's no rent growth in the markets,

Speaker 4

we still have

Speaker 2

48% embedded rent growth in our portfolio. So I would point to those two things as giving us a great deal of confidence in our ability to perform even if things were soft

Speaker 7

Okay. I guess just to be fair

Speaker 6

though, I mean there was a lot of government stimulus that Kept tenants healthier, I guess thinking about even earlier downturns, if we look back, is the occupancies really Yes.

Speaker 2

I don't if you look at the number of tenants in our portfolio that got Any sort of government assistance, it's less than 10%. And if you go back and look at Some of the tenants that we did rent offset agreements, half of them prepaid those early. So I think that speaks to the quality and the resiliency Of the portfolio and the tenants we've got.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Korchman. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, everyone. Good morning. If we think about just the long term drivers of the growth in this business, at this point in the cycle, how much of that should be coming from sort of The internal growth, especially with the mark to market as high as it is, I guess, the deeper questions are, is how much of that we get each year in the next few

Speaker 4

How

Speaker 5

much of that's going to come from external growth? So if we take your call around about 10% growth, is that half from development and half from this rent mark to market or is it different proportion than that.

Speaker 4

You're pretty darn close, Jamie. I heard Jamie, sorry Manny.

Speaker 2

We have

Speaker 4

a slide in our He doesn't

Speaker 3

get back to the question. This

Speaker 4

We have a slide in our investor deck that lays that out and it really hasn't changed much and You're pretty much right on. If you look at our external growth, I think we quoted development return of like 10% to 12% to FFO, the impact on FFO, Net of financing costs of 4% to 6%, so net those together in your 5% to 6%, give or take, of external growth. And in our what I call our internal growth report, GAAP FFO, same property is about 5%. So it's about fifty-fifty, you're right on. And I think the simple math way to think about it, our mark to market on our portfolio, like Jim said, is 48%.

Speaker 4

If you roll plus or minus 10% a year, we've been doing a 48%, there's 5% growth. So that's simple math, but you're pretty close. Great.

Speaker 5

And then on the development starts, is there either a cost or a mix component there? We'll look at the number of starts that you're going to have this year versus in the new guidance versus the old guidance. Has that changed? Is it new projects or is it more expensive projects Couple of bigger projects versus some smaller ones before.

Speaker 2

Yes, Manny, this is Steve. No, there's I mean, there's always some ins and outs. I would tell you it's a couple more projects. There's nothing significantly large that's skewing that one way or the other. So Similar to what we go into and we've got most of next year mapped out as well.

Speaker 2

Again, there's always a few that we find along the way, but We've been pretty diligent about building our land bank and having visibility for the next couple of years in our development guidance.

Speaker 5

So Steve, what would be the potential for that start guidance to go up again this year at all? Or is that kind of fixed for 2022 at this point?

Speaker 2

For development guidance to go up again on starts?

Speaker 5

Yes.

Speaker 2

Yes. If we found another project that we're able to start near term, but Those are harder and harder to come by with entitlement. So could it go up modestly? Perhaps. But most of what we have is We're already in some level of process on.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think the only significant move on that would be Some big build decisions. And they're out there, but they take a lot of time. We've got a number of those built into the pipeline, but You land 1 or 2 more of those and I think you could see an appreciable increase.

Speaker 5

Thanks all.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Kim. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good afternoon. On your development land bank, you're saying now we can accommodate 3 years of development starts at your current run rate because the run rate has gone up. What's your ability to source more land in your Tier 1 markets and have development yields kind of remain attractive to you?

Speaker 2

Yes. I would say, I think that's the strength of our team. We've been able to do that the last 3 years looking back to 2019, 2020, 2021, we've ran at a lower land bank number and this Our development starts have been in the same range. So we've got as we've said in our opening remarks, we've got a land bank that can support This level starts for the next 3 years. There's always a number of sites that are under contract, under option, some level of due diligence.

Speaker 2

But our teams are this is where our teams shine and I think you've done a really nice job with doing it.

Speaker 4

Yes. From perspective, John, we got almost double the land now that we had a year And to Steve's point, we've been doing this level of development all along. Now a lot of that land is covered land, it's generating income, which is even better. But we've been buying about the same amount we've been monetizing every year. We've been doing it through this whole cycle.

Speaker 8

Right. But development starts are going up. So it's just the visibility on developments, it doesn't seem as strong as it did before. So I was wondering on the second part of the question, multi store development in Tier 1 markets or non Tier 1 markets Doing developments there. When do these become more attractive?

Speaker 2

The spread between the coastal Tier 1 and the Tier 1 in the other markets, John?

Speaker 8

Right. Just given the difference in land cost, does it become more attractive to do Developments outside of your coastal share wind cities.

Speaker 2

Yes, I would tell you, I think the land that we have either on the books We control, we believe is in the right submarkets in all of our various markets. The margins are consistently have been consistently, let's just say, north of 50% In our development pipeline, so I would tell you the value creation opportunity in the whole portfolio It's really good and it's not a situation of where we're differentiating between markets or shifting our strategy. I think we've got ample opportunity across the board.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, good afternoon. I had another follow-up question on developments. I guess initial 2022 development start guidance was low versus 21, but you did revise it higher and some of your peers have discussed issues with labor and materials impacting development potential. So just wondering if you could comment To what extent you've been impacted by current labor or material headwinds impacting your development potential?

Speaker 2

Yes. Caitlin, I'd tell you, we're closely monitoring what's going on with materials. I'd tell you our processes have changed a bit In terms of when we're starting design, how quickly or how far out in front we're procuring materials, I would tell you all of our 2022 starts are locked in, in terms of Our start dates and design and our permitting, as well as our early long lead material items, Labor hasn't been as big of an issue, but materials have been. But again, I think this is where We're able to use our size and our balance sheet and our 50 years of experience to stay out in front of us. Yes, Caitlin, I would add to Steve's comment.

Speaker 2

I think what's Helping us drive our guidance on the development side isn't related to labor or material costs. It's the land that we have in the portfolio when those sites are titled and ready to go. And it's the leasing of our spec And we've come out of the Q1 and most of the way through April much stronger than I think Even we anticipated. So I think that's given us the confidence to go ahead and increase development guidance once again.

Speaker 9

Yes. And actually my second question was going to be on that speculative side. I was just wondering, it does seem like speculative development at this point definitely makes sense, but wondering What metrics you look at to gauge when speculative development is warranted and you're open to it versus something that might be considered more risky?

Speaker 2

I don't know what we can do that's more risky than speculative development. But I'm open to ideas I So what we look at is a number of metrics. What's the percentage at least in the development pipeline? And even with the increase in the amount of speculative development we're doing versus build to suits, that number is still at roughly 50%, which is a number we're very comfortable with. We look at leasing volume.

Speaker 2

As Steve cited earlier, this is the I think it's 8% in the 2nd quarter that we're above 7,000,000 square feet. And we look at the overall occupancy of the portfolio, the in service and the total portfolio, both of which are above 99%. So I think the combination of all three of those metrics would tell you that we need to be doing more speculative development and bring more space

Speaker 9

Got it. Yes, no, I was saying that in certain market conditions, speculative development might be considered more risky, but based on those metrics

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nick Galito. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thanks. I was hoping to get Mark In terms of the rent spreads that you're assuming in guidance for the rest of the year on a GAAP and cash basis?

Speaker 4

Yes, Nick, I think they'll be very similar to what we posted in Q1. The mark to market on our portfolio sort of coincidentally That 48% is really close to the 49% we posted in the Q1. Steve mentioned only 18% of that roll We're seeing coastal markets. That's pretty similar to what we expect for the last 9 months of the year. We still don't have a lot of coastal roll coming out of the last 9 months.

Speaker 4

So I think you'll see it may vary quarter to quarter, maybe a little higher to lower, but by and large for the rest of the year, I think you'll see Rent growth that we post on deals very similar to the Q1. As we look out to next year, we're not going to give guidance yet, but I would tell you that the coastal roll we have Next year is a little bit over 30% compared to the 18% this year. So as we sit here today, I would expect it to get only better next year.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. That's helpful. Just second question is on development. If you could talk a little bit more about the yield For the deliveries in the Q1 higher than it's been, you had a 6, 7 expected cash yield there, kind of what's driving that? And then also, I guess going back to the yield that you quote on the development pipeline underway 5.8%, How we should think about ultimately that yield once you deliver since you did raise your market rent forecast and Yes, I don't think you're trending rents and your development yields.

Speaker 10

So maybe just give us a feel for how that could play out?

Speaker 4

Well, I'll start the first question and maybe try the second and turn it over to somebody else. Our yields have popped for really two reasons. We are leasing our spec projects literally as they go in service. We've been talking about, as Steve mentioned, we started the The projects we delivered over the last 12 months were started at 3%. They're now 100.

Speaker 4

They're virtually 100 when they went in service. So We've been leasing these up at 2 months or less. We always underwrite 1 year. So when you look at our initial yields, we've got a year of carry costs Buried in the cost. So it brings our yield down a little bit.

Speaker 4

So to the extent we can lease those up 10 or 12 months earlier, That helps you. So that's part of it. And then the second part is just rent growth. You mentioned it, we don't trend rents when we do our underwriting. We underwrite current rents when we start to deal and then we only adjust that for signed deals.

Speaker 4

So the deals we're signing based on the market rent growth we're experiencing Our rent substantially inaccessible, we underwrote. So those two factors is what's creating that big pop in yields from initial underwriting to delivery. I would tell you as we look forward to the extent that dynamic continues, you'll see that result continue.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks, Mark. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. You talked a bit about the drivers that are greater inventory resiliency and e commerce growth. But I wanted to dig into a little bit about reshoring.

Speaker 11

Do the shutdowns in China escalate this conversation again? And this Driver kind of takes a little bit maybe longer than some of the others to kind of realize in demand. So when can we really start to see this As a major contributor to demand going forward.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think it's People are determined now future proofing their supply chains, whether you're talking about resiliency or future proofing, I think it's trend we're going to see, I think New Mexico and Central America relative to manufacturing, we're seeing some of it in spots and in certain industries in the U. S. But the bigger impact near term to us is just more product on our shores. So yes, I think it's definitely top of mind for all of our customers.

Speaker 12

Yes, Michael, I would add,

Speaker 2

I think Steve is exactly right. The near term impact is the safety stock that our customers are out trying to put in their logistics and supply chains. I think the impact of on shoring and near shoring will be a little slower but steady or steadier over the course of the next likely 5 to 7 years Because rebuilding or reengineering manufacturing, processing, assembly operations Takes a little bit more time than just moving the logistics side of the business. So I think that's a better long mid term and long term driver for our space.

Speaker 11

Got it. And as a follow-up, Last year, you had a number more renewals than maybe expected as people look to renew early. What are you seeing on that this year? And how do those lease negotiations differ from kind of traditional And what sort of escalators are you currently getting in sort of your renewals?

Speaker 2

Yes. I would tell you, it's Steve. I would say that do we have customers trying to given the environment out there, trying to Lock up space earlier, certainly, I think that's what a good brokerage firm representative would Tell them to do if it's a critical piece to their supply chain. We're we'll listen to customers. We'll talk with them.

Speaker 2

But obviously, It's a landlord's market right now. So we don't tend to negotiate rents too far in advance In today's market. In terms of escalators, it's been a big point of emphasis for us. You saw us move our escalators up And the latter part of 2021, up north of 3%. And what we were signing then in the Q1 of 2022, That number has moved to 3.6%.

Speaker 2

I would tell you, I would expect that trend to continue the rest of the year. Certainly, we've there There's inflation numbers out there that would suggest that they could go higher for us and our annual escalators within our leases.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, just

Speaker 13

a quick one on inventory. And I

Speaker 8

know it's been asked a

Speaker 13

lot of different ways, but when you're speaking to tenants, Can you just give us a sense of what they're saying about their inventory levels? And are they happy? How much more do they need? Just any color commentary would be really helpful because we keep hearing about some of that inventory comment and wondering what you guys are seeing in your portfolio.

Speaker 2

Sure. I would tell you we do a space utilization exercise twice a year with our tenants. Tenants are utilizing space at sort of near record levels for as long as we've been doing it, just around 90%. The resiliency side of this or the build back of stock that they have, We still think we pay a lot of attention to the inventory to sales ratio. There's been a lot of debate by a number of people on this call as to Breaking that down by category, and we've done that.

Speaker 2

I would tell you, we still think that there's a 5% to 10% build back To get to pre pandemic levels for inventories for our customers and that would tell you there's 300,000,000 to 400,000,000 Square feet of incremental demand that needs to get absorbed back into warehouses.

Speaker 13

Got it. That makes sense. And then, just another one on a big picture one on recession, which I know it's being debated in the market. Clearly, you're not seeing it, putting more capital to work here. But maybe can you give us a sense of what when would you see it, right?

Speaker 13

What are some of the signs that You would have to see in your businesses, it could be built suit, it could be tenant commitments of capital. Like how do

Speaker 8

you guys think about what

Speaker 13

the leading indicators in your businesses are for When things start to slow, if they start to slow?

Speaker 2

Well, Rob, I think we would it would first manifest So with us in I think our leasing volumes, in our renewal discussions and things like that. Next If you kind of peel back the onion, if we look at the deals that we're doing, and the capital that our customers are Spending, if they start to pull back on capital investments inside the building, I think that's a pretty good leading economic indicator. That's I guess one of the reasons we follow that so closely in terms of our renewal percentage, our leasing volume, Where the development pipeline is, so that we can keep a pretty good handle on that sense of the kind of And then the other thing which we've talked about before is the build to suits. And the build to suits are the best leading economic indicator for us In our conversations with our clients for the next 18 months to 24 months, because you're talking about designing and entitling and building buildings That aren't going to be delivered until 2024, in some cases 2025. And customers are if they're seeing Problems out there in their logistics supply chain, they're not going to be willing to make those commitments.

Speaker 2

And sitting here today, we've got lots of those opportunities.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hi, good morning. Could you provide your lease mark to market on a cash basis and also share how that differs between some of your top markets?

Speaker 4

Yes, Vince, it's Mark. We're like 48% on a GAAP basis and 35% on a cash. And then as far as the markets, I would tell you it's pretty well spread. It's pretty even across all the markets With the two main outliers being Southern California and New Jersey. Obviously, our coastal markets are a little bit better overall, but if you're Go back to Yung in on the coastal markets, Southern Cal and New Jersey are the biggest.

Speaker 4

And you got to keep in mind, those are the 2 newest markets for us And that's why we're only rolling 18% this year versus the 45% plus exposure that we have on those coasts. And that's why We're so bullish on our future outlook of this mark to market continuing to only get better, but pretty well spread out other than those two markets are clearly at the

Speaker 14

No, that makes sense. And is there anything you can just quantify that a little bit? Just like how much higher is Southern California New Jersey compared to the likes of Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, like what order of magnitude roughly?

Speaker 4

Double, Literally double. Yes. Now, as I said, keep in mind, Some of the Dallas and Chicago and places like that, we've got let's We've got new refresh releases buried in that number. So just hypothetically if Dallas is 45 and Southern Cal has doubled that at 9 am just Part of that is because Southern Cal, believe it or not, has smaller leases in our portfolio because we haven't got to enroll yet. And Dallas, We've been rolling all along, so we don't have as much churn left to go in Dallas, if that makes sense.

Speaker 4

You got to look at the maturity of it all too.

Speaker 2

Yes. It's hard.

Speaker 14

No, it's really helpful color. One more for me switching gears like has your asset mix in terms of what's targeted for disposition this year Change at all given the higher rates? And do you think pricing has moved for properties that are longer lease, lower growth profile?

Speaker 3

We haven't seen it yet. What we have seen is that we've seen the buyer pool shrink a bit On the assets, we've only had a few assets out in the market. One of them is under agreement at The pricing that we expected to transact at sub-four in a non Tier 1 market. So we're keeping a very close eye on it. There's a lot of chatter out there about it, but I don't think anybody has really seen it yet.

Speaker 3

So we'll be opportunistic on the disposition side and evaluate each one as we go about it And if we think the price is right, we'll transact. If not, we won't.

Speaker 14

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning. Just going

Speaker 7

back to your land bank commentary, you mentioned about 3 years of runway. Hi. I'm assuming you included the options that you have available. But if you look at the land, I mean, half of that, if you include options, is actually in Columbus, Ohio, I'm sure you could develop there, but I was just curious from a practical standpoint, is it really 3 years? Because I can't imagine you guys doing Bunch of Ohio developments all of a sudden or should we expect you guys to continuously reload that land bank at a pretty strong pace?

Speaker 3

Stephen, what are you picking

Speaker 2

up Columbus, Ohio for, man? Now to your point, just to clarify, I think This is details of supplemental. The only place we have a long term land option agreement is at Brickenbacker Airport in Columbus, Ohio. So everything else supporting the numbers that Steve put out is land that we have either under contract, under agreement, Covered land ways or already owned and on the books. So the Columbus option land is a very small piece, Does not represent the lion's share of our development pipeline for the next 3 years.

Speaker 7

Okay, Tom. Thanks for that clarification. And just going back to the topic of demand, Yes, I think one of your competitors talked about e commerce not being at a tip of the spear anymore for demand and other segments stepping up. And I know it doesn't work this way because the economy growth and population growth, so there's always kind of continuous demand. But In

Speaker 6

a simplistic sense,

Speaker 7

how far along are all these corporate users in terms of Really just getting the space they need and have locked it up and maybe the next round of demand just looks a little bit weaker.

Speaker 2

Well, I'll make a couple of comments and then I think Steve can add some color as well. I think people have Talk or speculated about Amazon pulling back and we saw them pull back In terms of their deals signed last year and yet we had record demand across the country. So I think while we may see their Demand moderate because of the how far along they are in terms of the build out of their supply chain. I think the vast majority of our other clients are still playing catch up. So I think we continue expect to see more continued demand on the e commerce From everybody other than Amazon.

Speaker 2

And I think a lot of companies are still playing catch up in terms of the capital investment In their e commerce facilities, the material handling systems and the robotics are still in their early stages of development. Just saw a headline where Amazon is investing $1,000,000,000 in robotics. Yes, I think we got a long runway to go in terms of e commerce and its adaptation to the U. S. And its supply chain.

Speaker 2

I think that bodes really good for us. Yes, Ki Bin, I would just add, I think for us, 3PLs continue to be the most active user in the market. We saw that in the Q1. We saw that last year. Retail or e commerce for us has probably fallen to about the 3rd category in terms of overall demand.

Speaker 2

So As Jim said, it's I think most of our customers are early on in their venture towards building out their own e commerce Platforms.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi, good morning. You've talked about how some of your non coastal markets are Showing increasing strength here. Can you maybe go into some more detail there, which markets do you want to highlight and how has the supply environment involved in some of those non coastal markets?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, it's hard to find a soft spot in today's world, right? I would tell you for us, Houston, as we've talked about before, Houston is probably in the one market that's been a little soft for us. But markets This past quarter, markets like Minneapolis, Raleigh, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta were all great markets for us In terms of rent growth and overall activity, Nashville has been a good market for us as of late. So it's again, it's hard to pick a market that's not doing well right now.

Speaker 15

Got it. Maybe one more. I guess So in terms of the lease mark to market, how should we think about that during a possible recession? How sticky do you think current rents are? We'll get back at prior recessions, maybe not COVID, but other recessions, how did lease mark to market or overall rents trend and How should we think about that risk over the next few years?

Speaker 4

Well, I'll start. I mean, I think Forget the recession, on 48%, we expect it to get better because we don't expect rents to pull back anytime soon. But I think the easiest way we think about it is if they go flat, which is a dramatic decrease from what we've experienced The last several years, we still have that 48% baked into our numbers. So I think we're very comfortable That even if we have some period of dislocation here and rent growth stops, that it can stay in the range it's at right now and we'll be stuck 48% Upside. So how low can it go?

Speaker 4

I don't know. I mean, it can go lower or anything can happen. But I think we're very comfortable The 48% is starting to get better and sort of a downside scenario, maybe not a worst case, but a downside is it stays at 48.

Speaker 15

How did rents trend in 2,008 and 2001? Just curious as someone newer to the space.

Speaker 4

Well, I think you got to factor in the different starting point, first of all. For 2,008, we were in a 3% vacancy heading into 2,008. Heading into 2,008. I mean, I just don't know that you can always look at history and the environment we're in now and draw a logical That would be my starting point. I don't know if you have anything to

Speaker 2

add to that. Yes, I don't know off the top of my head, I think I don't have that. I think to your point, Even if market rents fell and went truly negative, even if they fell 15% or 20%. We've still got a 48% mark to market. So I can't imagine a scenario even in 2,008 through 2010, Rents didn't fall

Speaker 3

50%. The other thing I'd point out is in 2,008 today we have 44% of our NOI coming from Coastal markets that have 1% vacancy and don't have any land available. Back in 2008, that was less than 1%. So there's a big difference there.

Speaker 15

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rich Anderson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hey, thanks. Just a couple of quick follow ups. A lot of my questions have been answered. But there was a you mentioned just To answer to a previous question just a little bit ago, e commerce is the 3rd largest, what was that in terms of activity, leasing Activity in the Q1 and maybe you can give me the breakdown of the industries. I might have missed that.

Speaker 2

Yes. Our top one Those 3 PLs that made up for us that made up a little under half of our overall activity. Consumer product goods would be I guess the next category

Speaker 4

I would throw So

Speaker 2

out there is in terms of activity, retail, e commerce would be the 3rd And then sort of what we call manufactured assembled goods would be the 4th category.

Speaker 12

And how has that changed over the past couple of years?

Speaker 2

I would say, e commerce and 3PLs have probably shifted. Consumer products goods have always been in that Usually in the top 4 for our portfolio, Amazon's activity the past 3, 4, 5 years has always put e commerce up near the top. Rich, I would say you got You got to take that with a little bit of grain of salt and I'm not trying to make excuses, but the consumer products companies, how much of what they're doing Is to support their e commerce and how much is to support their more traditional supply chain. That's kind of the gray area that moves back and forth. It's pretty easy to track Amazon and Wayfair dotcom because that's purely an e commerce platform.

Speaker 2

So there's a little gray area in there, but I think to Steve's point, it's been pretty consistent all along.

Speaker 12

Same could be said for 3PLs too, obviously, right? Thanks. It's very much a gray area perhaps more. So I wanted to I had sort of an idea about leading indicator and what's driving you to Span spec development at this point with the war going on and inflation and so on. And you mentioned Build to suits being the best leading indicator because those companies aren't going to make those types commitment that they don't really see what they think they're seeing.

Speaker 12

But at the end of the day, they're ingrained in this business and you use the Term catching up to Amazon. So they might be willing to take on a little bit of a risk To play that catch up trade, and not entirely an objective leading indicator if you were to ask me. The real objective leading indicators might be declining consumer sentiment in the face of inflation, GDP growth Just released this morning down 1.4% in the Q1 and yet you're still hanging on to the speculative development process. I don't know if I have a question in here, but I'm just wondering beyond the belt to suit Observation as you're guiding light to specular development, what else is getting you there in the light in In the face of all these other, what I would call risks to this system.

Speaker 2

Rich, those are all valid points. Occupancy, demand, leasing volume, nationwide vacancy, all of those things. The roles were reversed, Judy builds more spec space. I mean if you just think about it, at 99% plus in our in service portfolio, we don't have enough Space to handle just the organic growth of our existing customer base.

Speaker 12

Yes, but 99 is a coincident indicator and could go down as much as it could go up depending on demand of tenants and vacancies and all that sort of I don't mean to litigate this on this call. I just feel like To expand speculative development, this point seems like a brief step and you're not the only one doing it, but

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mealor, please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi. Two quick ones here. First, who are you typically buying land from today? And what portion of your spec activity is in existing parks?

Speaker 2

We typically buy, I would say, Today, there's either private sellers, people who have owned land for a long time, whether that was a business or owned by a family or a private company. Duke is, I would say, companies that are that we're redeveloping a site, something they've owned for a long time. And in terms of your other question was our development in the existing business parks, there might be I think 1 of our projects, looking at the list here, I think one of our projects is in an existing business park. Everything else was a site that we've been working on and had in some version of our land bank that was asked On this call a number of times over the past year.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Great. Thanks. Obviously, you guys put up some really sizable rent spreads this quarter, especially on a net effective basis at 49%, and Especially given that only 18% are in those Tier 1 markets. So I was wondering to what extent the term of the leases rolling off is affecting those strong Rent spreads. So those leases kind of 7 or more years old and that's what's driving that high mark to market or are they closer to 3 to 5 years old and those rent spreads are Indicative of very strong rent growth that you've seen even in those lower tier markets over that short period of time.

Speaker 4

Yes, Blayne, it's a little of both. They're not what I would call extremely long leases rolling. It's a little bit longer than the 3 to 4 year terms you mentioned. I The average terms enrolled was about 5 or 6, which is about what our overall portfolio is as we sit here today. So it's just a combination.

Speaker 4

We've seen great rent growth Across all the markets, whether you pick a market like Chicago or India or Atlanta, places we've been a long time, Red Cross has been great, not as Southern California and New Jersey, but certainly been a lot better than the built in escalators within the lease. So, it's not like it's a lot of 15 year deals rolling or anything like that. It was like 6 5, 6 year deals rolling, just pretty good solid growth across

Speaker 16

All right, great. That's helpful, Mark. And then, noticed that about half of your starts during the quarter on a square footage basis were in Annapolis, obviously, it's your hometown and we probably expect you guys to keep a footprint there. But can you talk about your longer term plans for that market and if we should continue to Expect growth there and maybe Steve can talk about the fundamentals you're seeing there relative to some of the trends in the Tier one markets.

Speaker 2

Sure. I wouldn't read a lot into the fact that we started 3 buildings this quarter. It's just a timing thing with some land we had. We like the markets we're in. Obviously, we've got a long history in this market.

Speaker 2

We've got a very deep customer base. And we're in the right So, Mark, it's probably got some headlines recently about some overbuilding. I will tell you that's occurring on for those of you familiar with Indianapolis on the east side or the far south side. It's not where these buildings are located. Again, we've got great history here.

Speaker 2

I think we know this market better than anyone, and I expect those projects to be successful. Longer term, yes, we haven't been super active on the development front in Indy. It's a good market for us. And When we see opportunities, we'll take advantage of them.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. There are no questions in the queue. Please continue.

Speaker 1

Yes. I would like to thank everyone for joining the call today. We look forward to engaging with many of you throughout the year. Operator, you may disconnect the line.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT and T conferencing service. You may now disconnect.

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