Chubb Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript


Listen to Conference Call View Latest SEC 10-Q Filing

Participants

Presentation

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Chubb Limited First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

Now, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Karen L. Beyer
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations at Chubb

Thank you, and welcome to our March 31, 2022 first quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing, and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplements, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. And then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions this morning are several members of our management team.

And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Good morning. We had an excellent start to the year. With record per share operating earnings and underwriting results, double-digit Global P&C commercial lines premium growth, accompanied by rate increases in excess of loss costs, and improving growth in our consumer business globally.

Core operating income in the quarter was one $1.64 billion or a record $382 per share, up 52% on a per share basis over prior year. In the quarter, we produced simply outstanding underwriting results. $1.28 billion of underwriting income was more than double prior year with a combined ratio of 84.3%, both records.

Our P&C current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 83.5%, a 1.7 point improvement over prior year with about one point from loss ratio improvement and the balance expense driven. On the investment income side, adjusted net investment income was circa $900 million for the quarter. We are predominantly a buy and hold fixed income investor and given rising interest rates and widening spreads, we expect investment income to increase from here. Every 100 basis points increase in interest rates for us is worth on an annualized basis about $1.2 billion on -- of -- in pre-tax investment income. We have a portfolio duration of about four years, so a rise in rates begins to earn in reasonably quickly. Peter will have more to say about other financial items.

Let me say a few words about the Russia and Ukraine war. The events unfolding before our eyes are a human tragedy of epic proportions with profound geopolitical implications. Our actual incurred losses to date from the event are de minimis. And from all we know today, while additional losses may develop over time, this will not represent a meaningful event for Chubb.

Integration planning around the Cigna transaction is quite active and remains on track. We expect to receive regulatory approvals leading to a close during the second quarter. There are no changes of substance to the guidance we gave you and any changes are modestly positive, we will update you after closing.

Now turning to growth. The rate environment and inflation, Global P&C premiums, which exclude Agriculture, increased 8.8% in the quarter on a published basis or 10.7% in constant dollars with commercial up 12% and consumer up 8%. Growth in the quarter was broad-based with contributions from virtually all commercial businesses globally, from large corporate to middle market to small, from traditional to specialty in most all regions of the world. Commercial P&C premiums excluding Agriculture for North America were up 10.5%, while in Overseas General they grew 13% in constant dollars, but we then had five points of FX impact to the published results.

Agriculture premiums were down in the quarter because of the return of premium to the government was based on our level of profitability for the '21 crop year. This is a favorable unexpected development. You will recall that crop insurance is a business where revenue and losses are shared with the government. For the '22 crop year, we will have a substantial increase in premium revenue over last year, given commodity prices and other factors. Most of this will be recognized in the third quarter.

Returning to commercial P&C. In terms of rate, the level of rate increase remains strong and as I have said before, as naturally moderating individual portfolios achieve adequacy and additional rate, it's then required to keep pace with loss costs. The rate environment is reasonably orderly and in aggregate, rate increases remained in excess of observed and projected loss costs.

In the quarter in North America, total P&C premiums excluding Agriculture grew 9.6%, again with commercial up 10.5%. Growth this quarter in commercial lines was led by our middle market and small commercial business with premiums up almost 12%, followed by our major accounts and specialty division that grew 9.5%. Total exposure change was a positive 1% in the quarter, a combination of an increase in economic exposure of about 3.2% due to higher payroll, sales, and other economically sensitive activity. And on the other hand, a decline in exposure due to underwriting changes such as increased attachment points and higher deductibles. It's a good thing.

Renewal retention for our retail commercial businesses is a 100% on a premium basis, very strong. Overall rates increased in North America commercial lines, 8.7%. Major accounts, which serves the largest companies in America, rates increased 9.3%. General casualty rates were up over 15.5% and vary by class of casualty, while risk management related primary comp and casualty rates were up 3.7%. Property rates were up 9.1% and financial lines rates were up 13.9% and varied by subcategory.

In our E&S wholesale business, rates increased by more than 11%, rates were up 13.3% in casualty, about 10% -- sorry, in property. Casualty was up 10% and financial lines rates were up 15.4%. And in our middle market business, rates increased 7.7% or 9.5% excluding comp. Rates for property were up over 8%, casualty rates excluding comp were up 8.5% and comp rates were down 1.5%. The comp pricing, which is rate plus exposure, was up over 9%. And finally, financial lines in middle market were up 17%.

We are trending loss costs at 6% and it varies by line. In general, we're trending loss costs in the rates we charge for short-tail classes just over 6.5%. So the actual is running lower. In long-tail, excluding workers' comp, we continue to trend in the 6% rate overall. And our first dollar workers' comp book is trending between 4% and 4.5%. In short-tail classes, we are actively monitoring property valuations, loss costs as they develop, and the real-time drivers of cost for changes in inflation, labor, parts and supplies, as well as the delays caused by supply chain disruptions given the length of time to repair or replace. This can add additional pressure on costs. In long-tail lines, we actively monitor and study both frequency and severity of each class.

Turning to our International General Insurance operations, retail commercial P&C premiums grew 15.5% in constant dollars, while our London wholesale business grew just over 5.5%. Retail commercial growth varied by region with premiums up 18.5% in Latin America, followed by growth of about 16.5% in our UK and Europe Division, and Asia Pac was up 14.5%. Internationally, like in the US, we continued to achieve improved rate to exposure across our commercial portfolio. And our international retail business rates increased in the quarter 10%, while in our London wholesale business rates increased 9%, both varied by class and by region, as well as country within region. Outside North America, loss costs are currently trending about 4%, though that varies by class of business in country. In general, loss costs for short-tail classes are running just under 4% and we anticipate this to increase. In long-tail we are trending at about a 4.5% rate.

International consumer lines growth in the quarter continued to recover from the pandemic's impact on consumer-related activity. The premiums increased about 9.5% though FX then scrubbed 6 points of to the grow -- off the growth rate. Premiums in our international A&H business grew 6% in constant dollars, while our international personal lines business grew over 10%. Latin America led the way with A&H and personal lines growth of over 18% and 17.5% respectively. While Asia Pac's growth for these two product lines was over 6% and 24.5% respectively.

Net premiums in our North America high net worth personal lines business were up about 7.5%. Last year's reinsurance reinstatement premiums due to the cat losses had a negative impact on growth there. Adjusted for that was other one-time items, our underlying growth was about 5.5% in the quarter. Our true high net worth client segment, the heart of our business, grew over 13% in the quarter, driven by a flight to quality and competitors leaving certain markets. While overall retention was very strong at nearly 99%.

In our homeowners business we achieved pricing, which includes rate and exposure of 12.3%, while homeowners loss costs are running in the 11% range. In our Asia-focused international life insurance business, net premiums plus deposits were flat in constant dollars but will increase in future quarters. While net premiums in our Global Re business were up 22%.

In sum, we had an outstanding quarter all around and we are off to a great start to the year. As I look ahead, I remain optimistic and confident in the things we can control and may have naturally grown more cautious given the world around us. Economic growth, general inflation and Central Bank actions, and the war come to mind. We will continue to capitalize on favorable underwriting conditions for our commercial P&C businesses globally. Consumer lines growth to continue to recover, as interest rates rise our investment income as well. And as I stated last quarter, our strategic investments, including the acquisitions of Cigna and likely later in the year Huatai will provide us with greater revenue and earnings growth opportunity.

I'll now turn the call over to Peter and then we'll be back to take your questions.

Peter Enns
Chief Financial Officer at Chubb

Good morning, everyone. As you've just heard from Evan, we are starting the year with an exceptional quarter, with strong top-line growth and record P&C underwriting results that produced operating cash flow of $2.4 billion for the quarter.

Turning to our balance sheet and capital management, our financial position remains exceptionally strong with $73 billion in total capital. We continue to remain extremely liquid with cash and short-term investments of over $5 billion. I would note, S&P and Fitch both reaffirmed our double-A ratings and stable outlook, reflecting our strong financial position.

Among the capital-related actions in the quarter, we returned $1.3 billion or 82% of core earnings to shareholders, including $1 billion in share repurchases and 340 million in dividends. As of March 31, $1.6 billion of the $5 billion share repurchase authorization remains available through June 30. We plan to seek authorization from our board for our annual share repurchase program prior to that date.

During the quarter, rising interest rates caused a mark-to-market pre-tax unrealized loss of $4.7 billion or 4% of our fixed income portfolio. As a comparison, the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index declined by 6% for the quarter. This adverse mark-to-market movement of $3.8 billion after tax or 6.5% of our book value drove the decline in book and tangible book value per share of 4.4% and 6.8% respectively. Excluding the unrealized mark-to-market in the investment portfolio, book and tangible book value per share increased by 2.1% and 2.9% respectively.

As noted in our supplement, the market rate on our fixed maturity portfolio was 3.4% for the quarter end, exceeding our book yield of 3%. As of last Friday, the market reinvestment rate had increased to 3.8%. Reflecting this rising rate environment, we now expect our adjusted investment income for the second quarter to be in the range of $915 million to $925 million and then it will go up from there.

Our reported ROE for the quarter was 13.6% and our core operating return on tangible equity was 17.1%. Our core operating ROE was 11.3%. Pre-tax catastrophe losses for the quarter were $333 million, including $138 million for Australian storms, $65 million for wildfires in Colorado, and $130 million for other global weather-related events.

We had favorable prior period developments of $240 million pre-tax essentially all in short-tail lines of $228 million, principally in A&H, property and surety. Our paid to incurred ratio for the quarter was 91% or 80% after adjusting for cats and prior period development. Our core operating effective tax rate for the quarter was 16.9% and we continue to expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for '22 to be in the range of 15.5% to 17.5%.

Now to finish with a couple of discrete items. First, relative to our exposure in Russia. Our Russian entities have been separated operationally from Chubb and are managing their affairs independently and have been deconsolidated. During the quarter, we impaired the full carrying value of these entities and have recognized a realized loss of $87 million.

Relative to Cigna, we have amended our purchase agreement to remove the joint venture in Turkey. This amendment will have a de minimis impact on the transaction. As Evan mentioned, we will provide an update with more specifics on the acquisition during the second quarter earnings call.

I'll now turn it back to Karen.

Karen L. Beyer
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations at Chubb

Thank you. At this point, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Questions and Answers

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will begin with Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

Yaron Kinar
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Good morning, and congratulations on the quarter. I know I've asked similar questions in the past, so I hope you have a little bit patience at this time around. You have the investment environment adding a good 150 basis points ROE for every 100 basis points of interest rate improvement. The loss ratios look great, you're still earning well over trend. At what point do you start taking the foot off of the rate pedal or go after more exposure as opposed to pushing for rate?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

We don't think of it that way exactly. I mean, first of all, the market itself is a governor on rate. We're in a competitive market. We pursue the rate we think we need. And that actually -- it's the other way around. That actually determines the outcome of growth. We're underwriters first. And the rate we require for both exposure and adequacy of rate to exposure, plus inflation as part of that, that's the starting point for us.

Yaron Kinar
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Okay. And then my second question. I think for the last several quarters, if we look at the rate environment, inter -- in commercial internationally, it's been higher than in North America. Yet the loss trends are lower internationally. Can you maybe help us think through why that would be? Is it because of the lower interest rate environment overseas or are there other drivers there?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Well, you know what, you have 55 countries that we're operating in around the globe. So there is no one, neat simple answer. On the long-tail side, most countries don't have the kind of legal environment that we have. There were a few that come to mind that are similar, like Australia and the UK, the balance. It's a much lower inflationary environment on loss cost for long-tail lines of business.

And then short-tail, it really varies by jurisdiction. And Europe is very different than Australia, which will be very, very different than, say, Malaysia or Korea in terms of parts and supplies and the nature of short-tail losses. So it's a mixed bag and that's why we're on the ground operating locally in every jurisdiction around the world. We know the markets, we're part of the market, and so we approach from the idiosyncrasies of that local market when we think about adequacy of pricing and underwriting.

Yaron Kinar
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Thank you very much.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

You're welcome.

Operator

We'll now move to our next question, which will come from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.

Mike Phillips
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Thanks, good morning. Evan, as you just said, you're part of a pretty competitive environment and the kind of government brought up things. Given the decelerating rate environment for the industry, and I think it's pretty unique times with loss trends that are accelerating pretty rapidly. Do you think there is an opportunity for that for the industry to find pockets where rates will actually invert and accelerate again sooner than they otherwise would have?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Here, look, it's certainly possible that reflect -- that as losses in certain areas or exposures increase, certainly the industry -- and you see it different -- in different areas. Look at personal auto right now. Industry responds. Look at commercial auto. Industry responds. Look at cyber. Industry responds. So as loss costs show themselves or the specter is on your doorstep, the industry does respond. Look at property. Property continues to increase at a -- overall a double-digit rate. Part of that is a reflection of rethought revised views of cat exposure, given climate change. And that is pretty universally recognized by good underwriters in model changes. The drive inflation and loss costs. So I am answering your question by giving you facts that I think make it self-evident.

Mike Phillips
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, thank you, Evan. This is more for -- actually for you and your book, and specific to your North American commercial lines book. When you look at that book, Evan. Do you step back and say, Gee, I wish we had more of this or either there's holes of opportunity -- holes is too strong a word but pockets of opportunity in either size of accounts or lines of business where, I wish we did more of this in North American commercial lines?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

It's more of a personal question. If you know me, you know my natural stage is not at rest. And we're an ambitious group and we have, let's call it, 1% less of the global insurance market. We're rounding error still in that regard. There's plenty of growth opportunity for this company and we're not brilliant at everything we do. There is plenty of opportunity to improve ourselves. So we are on an endless path.

Mike Phillips
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Now moving to Greg Peters with Raymond James.

C. Gregory Peters
Analyst at Raymond James

Good morning. So the first question. I know you mentioned this in your comments and then in your letter, the political the war, political tensions, lockdowns, supply chain issues. I think you mentioned in your letter, the potential for a new world order. So my question is the strategy difference of being a global reinsurer -- or not reinsurer, global insurer versus being more -- having more of a regional focus. And I'm wondering if that narrative has changed or your thinking has changed because of all of these wild swings in what we're seeing in the press and reality?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Nothing has changed. We take a medium-term and longer-term view of opportunity and strategy when we think about growth for the company. Let's take Asia. Asia is where probably more than one-half to two-thirds of the world's growth will likely take place over the next decade, two decades, and longer out. Chubb's presence and increasing presence there is a good thing. It will allow us to capitalize on those opportunities and that means that's where the insurance industry is going to grow.

When I think about Latin America. Yeah, it has a volatility signature to it that is more extreme. But we recognize that in how we approach the business. But the trend line over time is increased growth opportunity for a number of reasons, in particular. And so, no, it doesn't give me pause for thought on the underlying thesis. But the world goes through periods of greater volatility and risk, and sometimes a little less. You recognize that and you build that into your thinking when you approach your strategy and tactics and how you expose your company. But it is a -- it is a natural consequence of the -- of the strategy you take on when you go global that you will expose yourself.

I would also say this, I don't think that any country or region of the world, given the interconnectedness of the globe is immune. We're certainly not immune at all. And if you're in the United States as a US-only insurer, you will haven't insulated yourself from the global issues. By any means, just look at inflation and and by the way, the war in Ukraine. Cyber that goes across border. So we all live on the same planet. Nowhere to hide, bud.

C. Gregory Peters
Analyst at Raymond James

Good point. Peter, in your comments you talked about the capital returns in the quarter. I think you said 80 plus percent of the earnings was returned to shareholders. When we think about how -- and obviously, it's going to ebb and flow between quarters. But is that sort of like the general framework that you guys are thinking about, absent some major M&A opportunity on a go-forward basis?

Peter Enns
Chief Financial Officer at Chubb

I'd say that was just an outcome I was indicating. And we have a capital framework, which Evan's been clear on the past, which is we will hold capital for risk and opportunity and return capital beyond that to shareholders. So we will reauthorize with our board's permission a new program in the second quarter and we'll report on that on that basis. But there is no change to anything and that 83%, 82% was an outcome.

C. Gregory Peters
Analyst at Raymond James

Got it. Thanks for the answers.

Operator

Now we'll hear from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Hi, thanks, good morning. Evan, in your annual report you also talked about achieving an ROE of about 13% in 2023 and kind of heading north from there. So when you make that statement, how are you thinking about the rate versus trend environment playing out over the next couple of years? Do you see -- do you see a -- still a good glide path for within rate to remain in excess of loss trend?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Well, I didn't -- we did all our inputs. I'm not -- Elyse, I'm not going to go to specific items but all of it -- our own view of the market outlook is based -- is baked into that statement. Glide path I think is right. That rates will continue to moderate but with an asterisk on it, it depends on the line of business and it depends on the loss cost environment. And I would expect that the industry would respond. And then, keep in mind, if there are -- if there are any classes where rates are in excess, of that what is required to earn an adequate risk adjusted return on capital, then you might see in some of those classes. And you see it, you always see it. You see it now that there is a little rate give back, which is natural also.

So we imagine, in a word, a fairly orderly marketplace. But it's a marketplace and we also know a marketplace always has a certain signature of chaos to it. And that's baked into our thinking.

Elyse Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Okay. And then in terms of growth rate, you guys saw almost 11% Global P&C that's ex. ag growth in the quarter. Obviously, there was some impact of FX there. But as we think about the global economies improving, consumers is bouncing back, would you expect premium growth remained remain in the kind of within that level or perhaps pick up from here?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Nice try, Elyse. You know I don't give forward guidance. But I remain quite confident in Chubb's ability to outperform.

Elyse Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Okay. But am I right in thinking that consumer just has some tailwinds just given the environment and the headwinds that that business I guess has faced over the past couple of years?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Yeah, I think you're reasonably right. It varies by region but you see the trend follow the footprints. And where we have been going quarter-on-quarter, and I think that's reasonably good way to think about it.

Elyse Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Okay. Thanks, Evan.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question will come from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

David Motemaden
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hey, good morning. Evan, I just had a question a bit on the exposure change, specifically in North America commercial. It sounded like that detracted around two points from growth this quarter, which obviously, that close to 11% was still good. But I'm wondering if you could talk a bit more about some of the underwriting actions that you've been taking. I know this is something you constantly work on but it feels like it was a bit more of a concerted effort or it has been more of a concerted effort over the last year or so. So just wondering where we are in this exposure management and is this something that is going to continue to be a drag going forward, are we through most of it? And maybe, secondly, if we could think about how to quantify the benefit to margins from these changes, whether that be on both underlying or cat load?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Yeah. So I think, David, you didn't get it quite right. It didn't detract two points. In fact, it added about one point. What I gave you was one point of exposure growth in commercial lines, North America. I told you about three points -- two points of that was economic. And then, there was an offset from underwriting, which we can measure and that it was a change in terms and conditions and deductibles, et cetera. And it's not -- it's not some event over the last year. It's over a more extended period of time in the -- in the hard market. You can -- one of the tools you have and that the clients want because they're getting a lot of price and rate increase. Deductibles and attachment points, is an example. They don't move for years during the softer part of the market cycle. Yet inflation is relentless, even if it's two points, or three points, it's year on year on year on year. And so, what a million dollar deductible was worth 10 years ago is hardly what it's worth today.

And so, you go -- and clients in a hard market, they understand dollar swapping. They don't want to swap dollars. And so, you correct for that. It's not just rate that occurs. There is this rational correction of structural curves with your clients and that's the change in deductible and attachment points as -- just to cite those in particular. So I would give you that mental model.

In terms of margin. Nice try. I'm not going there. And though we do quantify it quite precisely to ourselves in most classes. And I think I answered it but I want to go back on the leases. At least not to -- not being cagey, I expect consumer to continue to recover and to continue to show improved growth. The only thing I can't control is a war and any area that may go into recession. But from what I can see right now, I expect it to continue to recover.

Operator

Anything further, David?

David Motemaden
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Yeah. Thanks, that's helpful. I guess, have you seen any -- obviously, higher rates, higher interest rates is helping ROEs across the industry. Have you seen any competitors picking up their aggressiveness in terms of pricing, just as we've had interest rates move higher here? Or has that -- obviously, it's still a very uncertain environment, inflation is still very high. Has that -- have you seen any evidence of the competitive environment picking up?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

David, think about it. They've just started rising relatively short period ago. Portfolios have to turnover to actually earn it in. And they moved very, very quickly. And by the way, on one side it's interest rates and on the other side is inflation. And the industry needs to stay ahead on inflation, so no. The answer is I have not seen that.

David Motemaden
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Got it, thanks. That makes sense.

Operator

Moving onto Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I have one on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Evan. In the -- in the annual letter, one thing that stood out to me was the fact that you -- Chubb's a market leader in a lot of political risk classes. You mentioned Bermuda subsidiary, I think it's called Sovereign Risk. So I guess, I was pleasantly surprised, but in a good way that losses from Russia-Ukraine were de minimis. So first part is, can you just help us understand how have you managed to avoid losses tied to that? And second of all, what are the types of opportunities you're seeing on the back end of this?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Yeah. Opportunities begin to emerge in political risk but we're pretty conservative and cautious underwriters in the class and the way we approach it. We know our minds clearly. Look, more loss may develop in that area. I can't tell you if I -- if I knew, we would have taken, we would have recognized. And -- but given events, losses and further exposures may develop in the political risk area, given confiscations or ex-appropriations or inability to use an asset. We are in touch with all our clients and so far to date, we don't see circumstance -- individual circumstance that translates us. If it does happen, given our aggregate of exposure in total, because we watch and always have, our aggregations by country, by industry, by type. Whether it is ensuring debt or it's ensuring equity, whether it's ensuring currency and convertibility. We're very careful in how we think about the construction that way.

And so -- and if there is loss to emerge in the future, I just don't know. It will be -- it won't be a big event for Chubb. We don't have huge limits on any one client on a net basis and so in aggregate. That's why I made that statement that it may develop, it could happen. That happens over an extended period of time and the aggregate amount, it won't be a -- it won't be a big event for Chubb.

Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Understood. And then my follow-up I guess, very strong underlying loss ratio improvement in the -- in the commercial segments. Is it fair to say that pretty much all that is from the earned pricing versus loss trend dynamic or was there anything else that you point to that the might have made that outsize this quarter? Thanks.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

No, no. Nothing. No. It's really in long-tail lines here in the first quarter of the year, it's based off of loss ratios that you select. And in short-tail lines, virtually the same. And there is nothing we see underlying and there was -- there were no one time or anomalous items that contributed. Very broad but--

Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Okay, thanks.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

It was the resilience of it and the quality of it. I was -- I'm gratified to see and it's a testament all my colleagues. It is the broad-based nature of it.

Operator

Now moving to Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

J. Paul Newsome
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Good morning. Congratulations on the quarter. The 6% loss trend that you were talking about. Does that include the A&H book? And I was wondering if you make -- if there is a difference or you can contrast the claims inflation trends you're seeing on the property casualty -- pure property casualty book versus what we're seeing on the A& H book? I guess, sort of a corollary question to that is, if there is a difference, does the way we think about sort of aggregate claim house trends change for Chubb when they -- when you close the Cigna deal?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Paul, let me help you with that. What I gave you was the commercial lines business and I gave you a short-tail. Included in the commercial lines business is a very small A&H book. Actually, I think you can virtually see the premiums, so it hardly swings any stick. Beyond that, I'm not going into any more parts and pieces. In fact, I think I was more transparent than most who are reporting. So I've gotten as far as I'm going to go in terms of individual binds if any. But again, A&H is -- hardly swings any stick in the trend numbers here. The 6% was a North American number and it was North America commercial.

J. Paul Newsome
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay, thank you.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

You're welcome.

Operator

Next question will come from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

Alex Scott
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Hi. Yeah. First question I have for you is just if you could describe what you're seeing with court reopenings and if that's having any impact, I guess, either positive or negative on just the updated view of loss cost trends that are sort of separate from the CPI-type inflation?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

What did you just say? I'm sorry, what was the first part of that?

Alex Scott
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Sure, I'll repeat it. Sorry. I was interested if you could describe what you were seeing with court reopenings and how that's impacting loss cost trends, either positive or negative?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

We're not -- we're seeing an increase in frequency, what we would expect with court openings. And we're seeing more adjudication of claims, given court openings. Nothing is impacting trends.

Alex Scott
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Got it. And the second question I had was just on the cyber insurance and I guess, A, are you seeing anything there and B, the war exclusion comment -- language you have in your policies. Could you just describe if that's changed at all since sort of 2017 and things may be learned from the outcome with Merck and whether the language would be more protective against events like what happened in 2017?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

First of all, let me work backwards. And then I'm going to come to the first part because let's be precise with each other. First of all, Merck. Merck was not a cyber insurance policy. Merck was a property insurance policy. And I wish those who are thinking about this or writing about this externally would put their heads around that, that it was property insurance, not cyber insurance. Huge difference and I hope that helps you.

Secondly, when you started by saying am I seeing anything there in cyber. What do you mean am I seeing anything there? Help me and then I'll help you.

Alex Scott
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Sorry. Have you received any claims that are at all associated with the conflict in Ukraine and Russia?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

The largest single vector territory of attack into the United States for the last number of years has been Russia. Clearly, when it comes to ransomware attack, more comes out of Russia than any other jurisdiction in the world. In fact, China is not a source of that. China is more a source of espionage. And so we didn't -- it hasn't abated and it hasn't increased actually from what we see. And when we talk to the experts those in the cyber security industry, there are certain changes of patterns that I won't go into, but overall, it was a hostile environment and it continues to be in that regard. It has a certain frequency and severity signature to it. We haven't seen anything systemic and I think you probably know that because otherwise, you'd had been reading about it in The New York Times.

Alex Scott
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Thanks for the responses.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

You're welcome.

Operator

Next question from Meyer Shields with KBW.

Meyer Shields
Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Thanks, good morning. Evan, I'm trying to understand with the Cigna businesses, when or if interest rates rise in those markets, does that get typically offset by more aggressive pricing or does that translate into higher returns?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

In which businesses?

Meyer Shields
Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

In the businesses that you're buying from Cigna.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

No. Pricing doesn't really change. It's very independent of the -- of interest rate environment. This is not long -- this is not savings oriented business, for the most part. It is -- it is fundamentally a risk business. It's a morbidity business, to be clear, in the vast majority of it. Think about supplemental health-related, dread disease-related. There is an element of ROP, which is a return of premium product, it has a savings element to it. But that is -- that's a SPY old rate and it changes very slowly. So, no, it's not an interest -- to put it in a word, Meyer, it's not an interest sensitive business.

Meyer Shields
Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

And then, I don't know if it's too early for this, I suspect not. Has the -- has Chubb's crop book changed at all this year because of the commodity prices? In other words, the mix by state by commodity?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

No. It has not. We have 20 some odd percent market share in crop in the United States. That's a huge tanker. That then moves pretty slowly if you're thinking about change in exposure, which in that sense, you'd be thinking about change in mix of crop, you'd be thinking about territory change. And the only change in mix of crop comes in the aggregate to the degree that farmers change their behaviors and it aggregates to something significant like a change from corn to soybeans, et cetera. But we generally see that most every year, a bit of that on the margin.

Meyer Shields
Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Okay, perfect. Thanks so much.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

You're welcome.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now hear from Brian Meredith with UBS.

Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS Group

Yeah, thanks. I have a couple of quick questions for your. First, I'm just curious. Looking at the ceded premium in your North American business up pretty large on a year-over-year basis. But that is just a timing issue or is there something else going on? Maybe more of an opportunity here to buy some less expensive reinsurance and put some good margin in place?

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Always looking for that. But no, there was nothing. There was -- there was nothing. It was just a mix and an anomalous in the quarter and it bounced around a little bit as you know.

Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS Group

Got you. Thanks. Then, I guess my second question, I'm just curious. Looking at over the next kind of 6 to 12 months, your balance sheet is obviously in much better shape for a lot of these P&C insurance companies' pricing, maybe we're kind of in the seventh, eighth inning. What's your view with respect to the M&A environment out there and the opportunities that may be presented to you? I know you've got a couple of larger ones internationally but I'm sure you've got the capabilities to do lots of M&A.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

Yeah. I gather, you're talking about the industry, Brian. My view of it, not Chubb.

Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS Group

Yeah.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

I don't have a firm view about it, a clear view. I would say, on one hand, cost of capital has gone up and so the bar goes up. Most companies or a lot of companies, their balance sheet and earning power's in pretty good shape. And most of the M&A in the industry in my mind cloaked in the word strategic, is actually more done out of weakness, where where people feel pressure. And they want to continue to grow, they have a balance sheet whole problem, et cetera. And I don't see a lot of impetus for M&A, and again, in a broad sense. And there is more risk in the environment right now, remember that. And so, people will be a little cautious. You'll see -- where you will see it will be more in small and mid-sized. I doubt you'll see much in anything of a large size. But who the heck knows?

Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS Group

Okay, great. Thank you.

Evan G. Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Chubb

You're welcome.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude your question-and-answer session for today. I'll be happy to turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for any closing remarks.

Karen L. Beyer
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations at Chubb

Thank you everyone for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Alpha Street Logo

 


Featured Articles and Offers

Search Headlines:

More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat

Upcoming Earnings: