Ventas Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 6, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Ventas delivered year-over-year growth in normalized FFO and same-store SHOP NOI for the first time since the pandemic, driven by a 9.8% same-store revenue increase, 4.2% RevPOR growth and 83% average occupancy in Q1.
  • Senior housing operations showed pricing power with 8% in-place rent hikes, 5% sequential street-rate gains and narrowing lease spreads to low single-digit declines, indicating further revenue upside as occupancies climb.
  • The company has invested ~$4 billion since early 2021 in senior housing, life sciences and medical office assets, including the $107 million acquisition of Mangrove Bay (now yielding 6%) and a University City lab conversion project targeting a 7% yield.
  • Ventas reset its partnership with Sunrise Senior Living to link management fees and incentives directly to NOI performance, aligning interests for profitable growth across 92 high-end assisted living communities.
  • With 90% fixed-rate debt, 6.9× leverage and $2.2 billion of liquidity, Ventas guided Q2 normalized FFO of $0.69–$0.73/share and expects ~4% sequential SHOP NOI growth led by 400 basis points of occupancy gains.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Ventas Q1 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Abby, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ventas First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded and all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Sarah Whitford. Ms. Whitford, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Abby. Good morning, and welcome to the Ventas First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our Q1 earnings release, supplemental and investor presentation. These materials are available on the Ventas website at ir.ventasreit.com. As a reminder, remarks made today may include forward looking statements, including certain expectations related to COVID-nineteen and other matters.

Speaker 1

Forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, all of which are available on the Ventas website. Certain non GAAP financial measures will also be discussed on this call. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, Please refer to our supplemental posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Deborah A.

Speaker 1

Cafaro, Chairman and CEO.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning to all of our shareholders and other participants. I want to welcome you to the Ventas First Quarter Earnings Call. I'm delighted to be joined by my Ventas colleagues who have worked so hard for shareholders, each other, our partners and our other stakeholders over the past 2 plus years. We are off to a strong start in 2022.

Speaker 2

We are delighted to deliver on our commitment to grow normalized FFO and same store shop NOI year over year for the first time since the pandemic began. It is certainly worth pausing to appreciate a quarter that returns us to growth and underscores our positive momentum and the senior housing recovery that is underway. In the quarter, we continued to Fit from Stability and Growth in our Office and Healthcare Triple Net Lease Businesses. And in SHOP, we saw standing year over year NOI revenue and occupancy growth that overcame meaningful impacts of COVID-nineteen and Inflationary Pressures During the Quarter. Looking forward, the power of our well positioned communities, Strong demand evidenced by leads that consistently exceed pre pandemic levels into April, pricing power and advantaged markets should translate into sustained NOI growth through the balance of the year.

Speaker 2

These trends should be further enhanced by favorable supply demand fundamentals, supporting net absorption in our markets. Specifically, Q1 2022 starts are down 2 thirds from the peak, just as the over 80 population is set to grow over 20% during the next several years. But we are not just relying on demographics to win the recovery. Justin and his senior housing team continue to take decisive actions following the right asset, right market, right operator approach to best position our senior housing portfolio to capture the upside ahead. We've already started to see the benefit of these actions with a strong Q1.

Speaker 2

And our SHOP portfolio has outperformed industry benchmarks for comparable senior housing communities over the last year. Today, we've announced another important step in this progress. We have revised our agreement with Sunrise to align our interest toward profitable growth and value creation. We've been working together with Sunrise since 2007 and are delighted to reset the relationship with the current management team at this point in the cycle. In addition to organic growth, We also benefited from the investments we've made under our consistent long term capital allocation philosophy and priorities.

Speaker 2

On the investment front, we've posted about $4,000,000,000 of investment activity since the beginning of 2021. With our Q1 2022 capital allocation priorities continuing to be the acquisition and development of senior housing, life science and Select Medical Office Building. I want to highlight 2 of our Q1 investments and show how they demonstrate our investment approach. The two investments have reliable going in cash yields, limited downside and room for growth. And both came from trusted relationships built over long periods of time through repeated and mutual success.

Speaker 2

Mangrove Bay is an irreplaceable senior housing community located on the waterfront in the high wealth submarket of Jupiter, Florida. Acquired for $107,000,000 Mangrove has large units, high RevPOR and a strong consistent operating history. Since the acquisition, performance has been strong and our investment yield has grown to 6%. Our recent value add investment in the U City Philadelphia submarket represents an opportunity to add another component to our incredibly well performing research and innovation portfolio located between Penn and Drexel. We intend to convert a portion of the building to high demand lab space and achieve a 7% stabilized yield on our aggregate investment costs.

Speaker 2

The Pendrexel market has been very successful for us with our 2 ongoing developments now 90% leased or committed and rents up 40% since we put a shovel in the ground. I'd like to touch on 3 more points before closing. Our continued focus on driving total shareholder return, ESG leadership and the macro environment. First, as a continuation of our commitment to driving TSR performance, I welcome BJ Grant to the VTR team. He is a highly regarded long time REIT investor who has a distinct appreciation for healthcare and senior housing real estate.

Speaker 2

BJ is going to work with the Ventas team and externally with the investment community to reinforce the Ventas value proposition. 2nd, I'd like to highlight our sustainability leadership, which continues with our announced commitment to achieve net 0 carbon emissions over the next 2 decades and our recent recognition as the number one medical office building owner operator for Energy Star Certification. Finally, let's discuss the all important macro economy, particularly current inflationary pressures and the tightest labor market we've seen in 50 years. It is encouraging that today's jobs report evidence some emerging indications of stability. Emanating from a confluence of factors, Annual inflation is expected to continue to run high, perhaps exceeding 8% through the 2nd quarter, and then moderate by a couple of percentage points in the back half of the year and moderate again by another couple of percentage points by mid-twenty 23.

Speaker 2

While significant uncertainty remains, this improvement in expectations as a result of various policy actions, including Fed tightening, tempering demand, greater balance in workforce supply and demand from expansion of the labor force participation rate and a slower pace of job creation and some supply chain normalization. Whether these forces result in a soft landing or trigger a recession, Ventas is relatively well positioned. Our demand is robust, it is need based and it is growing. Pricing power is strong and has the potential to strengthen further as occupancies continue to recover. Softening the rate of growth in labor and other expenses should improve our margin, particularly as revenue and occupancy increase.

Speaker 2

But regardless of the macro environment and uncertainty, At Ventas, we will remain agile, execution focused and performance driven. With an attractive valuation and high quality portfolio, growth potential, a well covered advantage dividend, 90% fixed rate debt and the opportunity to drive external growth. We are very well positioned. In closing, I want you to know that all of us at Ventas are committed to using every tool at our disposal to excel and create sustained value for our shareholders and other stakeholders. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Justin?

Speaker 3

Thank you,

Speaker 4

Debbie. I'll start by noting that we are very pleased with the NOI growth in the quarter and the start of what should be sustained improvement in our SHOP portfolio throughout the year. The revenue performance is very strong, driven by volume and pricing in spite of the COVID activity in the Q1, leading to our best year over year and sequential revenue performance we have ever seen in our portfolio. Now, I will speak to the Q1 SHOP performance excluding HHS grants, 2nd quarter guidance, comments and update on our key initiatives. In the Q1, same store revenue increased by nearly 10% versus the prior year due to the positive trends in occupancy and rates.

Speaker 4

Same store average occupancy grew year over year by 4 20 basis points to 83%, which was ahead of the guidance midpoint of 4 10 basis points. Although the Q1 was slowed by impacts of COVID, demand remained resilient. Year to date through April, lead and move in activity continues to outperform pre pandemic levels, led principally by our U. S. AL business.

Speaker 4

RevPOR increased by 4.2% versus the prior year, benefiting from strong in place resident rate increases approximating 8% and Improving Releasing Spreads. Not only did we execute very strong in house rent increases during the quarter, we have also witnessed strong sequential growth in street rates over the past several months as move in rates have improved 5% sequentially. The result of these favorable pricing trends has helped to translate into narrowing re leasing spreads, which is now a low single digit reduction and more favorable than pre pandemic levels. This demonstrated pricing power is occurring at 83% occupancy. Therefore, we believe we have significant occupancy rate and ultimately revenue growth potential in front of us.

Speaker 4

Turning to expenses. Same store operating expenses grew 8% year over year excluding HHS, driven by higher occupancy and macro inflationary impacts throughout the quarter on labor utilities and other operating expenses. Labor expenses remain elevated as we navigate the macro staff shortages with enhanced hiring practices and target wage increases. Net hiring has improved 7 months in a row. And although we are pleased to see the progress on hiring, we have yet to see it impact the P and L.

Speaker 4

Although inflation is elevated and labor expenses remain high, the incremental margin growth is strong. One of the best aspects of the senior housing operating business at this point in the cycle is the high operating leverage. We are starting to benefit from this operating leverage as the incremental margin was 56%, which helped the overall margin improve to 24%. It is important to note that even though we were pleased with the quarter's performance, the impacts from COVID drove uneven geographic results, with the U. S.

Speaker 4

Significantly outperforming Canada on the bottom line. NOI in the U. S. Grew 26% year over year versus Canada, which was down 2%. We expect conditions to improve over the balance of the year as Canada's move in restrictions where the primary driver of its performance compared to the U.

Speaker 4

S. Our independent living business was also impacted by COVID in the quarter, but I am encouraged to see reacceleration of move ins in that portfolio in both March April. We continue to believe in the independent living thesis over time. We should benefit from our independent living through the overall higher stability with higher margin, lower labor, higher occupancy and a longer length of stay. Our independent living communities in the U.

Speaker 4

S. And Canada are located in markets that support strong net absorption over time. Moving on to significant updates in the Senior Housing portfolio. Our transition 90 portfolio of mid market assisted living communities located in markets with favorable demand characteristics, which Fully transitioned as of January 1st this year to new regional operators is showing early signs of improvement as occupancy and NOI are both starting to improve. Our leading senior living portfolio services over 75,000 residents across 46 U.

Speaker 4

S. States, 7 Canadian provinces and the U. K. And it's comprised of 38 operators. We remain fully engaged in developing deeper and mutually beneficial ships, especially with our SHOP operating partners through Ventas OI.

Speaker 4

Our goal with this platform is to use our operating experience and deep analytical capabilities to improve all aspects of operations from digital marketing strategy to CapEx optimization to recruitment and retention. We have developed a differentiated support structure to help our operators succeed. We continue to identify opportunities to improve our portfolio through selective pruning as we are targeting roughly $200,000,000 of Senior Housing dispositions this year. We are also pleased, as announced today, that we refreshed our relationship with Sunrise Senior Living, who operates 92 of our high end assisted living communities. This relationship has been reframed with better alignment, which adds flexibility and Rewards NOI performance, which now contributes to the management fee and incentives based on outsized NOI growth.

Speaker 4

Given the emphasis on NOI at this point in the cycle, we think this alignment is perfectly timed. I'll close by reiterating our expectation for sustained improved shop performance throughout the year driven by revenue through occupancy growth and improved pricing. I would also like to acknowledge our operating partners who have been successfully navigating an evolving macro environment and ultimately creating a valuable living experience for our residents and value creation for our shareholders. Now, I'll hand the call to Bob. Thanks, Justin.

Speaker 4

I'm going to

Speaker 5

share a few thoughts on our Q1 office and enterprise results and finish up with our Q2 outlook before turning the call to Q and A. Our office segment, which includes our medical office and research and innovation businesses performed well in Q1, delivering 4.6% year on year same store growth. Medical office year on year quarterly same store growth was 3.5%, led by strong retention, contractual escalators and parking recovery. R and I increased 7.9%, which also benefited from escalators and leasing, as well as from $1,000,000 in holdover rent from an exiting tenant. Adjusting for this holdover rent, R and I growth was 4.6% in the quarter and office same store NOI growth was 3.8%.

Speaker 5

In terms of overall enterprise performance, we were very pleased to have posted growth in the Q1 for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. We delivered FFO of $0.79 per share and organic shop revenue and NOI same store growth of 10% 14%, respectively. Meanwhile, total property same store NOI increased 5.8% excluding HHS grants. And this growth was achieved while Omicron raged for the majority of the quarter. These results speak to the quality of the Ventas portfolio and the commitment and skill of the Ventas operators and team.

Speaker 5

Leverage improved sequentially by 30 basis points to 6.9 times in Q1 as a result of senior housing NOI growth and HHS proceeds, partially offset by acquisitions closed in the Q1 that have been pre funded in 2021. In this rising interest rate environment, 90% of our debt is fixed rate with the duration exceeding 6 years at an average cost of debt of 3.4%. We are pleased that we extended debt maturities in 2021, having paid down over $1,000,000,000 of near term debt, while raising over $1,000,000,000 of new debt with a weighted coupon of 2.65%. And our liquidity remains robust with $2,200,000,000 available at the close of the Q1. In terms of Q2 guidance, we expect net income to range from minus 0 point 0 $3 to plus 0 point 0 $1 per fully diluted share.

Speaker 5

Q2 normalized FFO is expected to range from $0.69 to $0.73 per share. When excluding HHS grants, Our Q2 guidance midpoint of $0.71 compares to Q1 FFO of $0.71 We expect SHOP to grow approximately $0.02 sequentially. This is largely offset by 2 items previously communicated. A $0.01 sequential reduction from the move out of 2 life science tenants, which will enable redevelopment into high demand lab space and $0.01 from lease resolutions with a handful of smaller operators in the senior housing triple net business with future upside participation in the cash flows at the assets. Further impacting the SHOP Q2 year over year same store guidance, We expect revenue to grow approximately 10% at the midpoint, led by occupancy increasing by 400 basis points as well as improved rates.

Speaker 5

We expect to grow SHOP NOI in the range of 2% to 10%. At the guidance midpoint, Ventas expects operating expenses per day in Q2 to remain consistent with Q1. Flat operating expenses per day sequentially in Q2 is higher than normal seasonal trends as a result of incorporated continued inflationary pressures, notably on labor, utilities and resident services. Looking sequentially, overall SHOP segment NOI is expected to grow approximately 4% from Q1 to Q2. Looking beyond Q2 for SHOP, based on the favorable supply demand backdrop, the strength of the revenue engine and the expectation of some moderation and inflationary pressure in the back half.

Speaker 5

We continue to expect sustained improvement in shop same store cash NOI through 2022. Final Q2 guidance assumptions include no new unannounced material acquisitions or capital markets activities and 403,000,000 fully diluted shares. For more information on our guidance assumptions, I would direct you to the business update deck posted to our website. I would also point you to pages 29 and 31 of our supplemental, which provide insights and disclosure, including segment NOI guidance and an NOI to FFO trending schedule to allow for easier insight into unique items in our results. To echo Debbie's comments, I'm excited to have BJ Grant join Ventas as our leader of IR.

Speaker 5

BJ is an accomplished REIT investor, has deep knowledge of healthcare and Ventas and will be a great fit with our team. To close, we believe the senior housing recovery that is now underway, The actions we have taken and our continued focus on execution position us for sustained value creation. That concludes our prepared remarks. Before we start with Q and A, we ask each caller to state to one question to be respectful to everyone on the line. With that, I will turn the call back to the operator.

Operator

Thank you. And we will take our first question from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Your line open.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Bob, I just wanted to maybe drill in a little bit on what you were talking about on expenses and just make sure I understand contract labor, I know it was kind of a big headwind in the Q1. I'm just trying to understand what are your expectations for that in Q2 and Just maybe labor overall in Q2 versus kind of labor in Q1.

Speaker 5

Sure. Thanks, Steve. And there's a really helpful page in the business update on Page 12, which speaks to expenses. And just to frame this, I know you're asking about labor, but again, I want to put labor in the context of the overall expense base because we are seeing inflationary pressure not only in labor, but in other areas such as Food and Utilities and so on. And that's embedded in the forecast.

Speaker 5

But specific to labor, contract labor within that, which is call it 5% of labor with 95% being in house labor. We did see some modest improvement in contract labor towards the end of the first and we expect that to continue modestly improving into the second as we continue to get some success in hiring as Justin articulated. Importantly, though overall labor, we are assuming continued inflationary impacts in targeted ways in order to enable that recruiting. If you step back from it all, We are holding our cost per day flat sequentially Q2 to Q1 in a quarter which is seasonally lower typically to reflect that inflation. Hopefully that helps frame the answer.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Nick Joseph with Citi, your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, you've got Michael Griffin here on for Nick. Just curious on On future senior housing investments, is there more of a preference for the U. S. Or Canada?

Speaker 2

I'll take that and then turn it over to Justin. But we've been very successful in both markets over time. Canada has really outperformed during the pandemic. Occupancy has remained very high and the market has been favorable over long periods of time. And of course, the U.

Speaker 2

S. Is the engine of growth in this quarter with 26% year over year. So we like the growth potential there as well. Justin, do you want to Yes.

Speaker 4

And I'd just say that as we're underwriting deals, we always drill into the local market and we're following the philosophy of right asset, right market, right operator. Certainly, the Broader Canadian market tends to have a better supply demand dynamic over time. They've been 90% occupied for the last 10 years. So It's been supportive of a very stable and growing investment in Canada. And then the U.

Speaker 4

S, looking ahead, With supply being so low and starts being so low over the next few years, we like our opportunity to grow organically, but also To make investments in the U. S. As well.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe just a bigger broader one, Debbie And Justin, you've traded now at between 4 and call it 7 turns multiple spread to your largest peer. I'm just wondering like, I know you're going to be executing over the next few quarters, but are there other changes or strategies, Are there things you can do that you think investors will allow that cap to close?

Speaker 2

Well, thank you for the question. As I mentioned, we are and have been taking a lot of decisive action on the portfolio, with the team, and just in general Thank you to make sure people understand the Ventas story and the opportunities. And really, We have a consistent strategy that over time has delivered superior performance and we look forward to the opportunities ahead. And again look forward to driving TSR as I mentioned.

Operator

We will take our next question from Austin Verschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Great and thank you. So, I was curious based on the positive trends you're seeing in street rate growth for Senior Housing and the improvement in re leasing spreads to the low single digit decreases. Do you expect re leasing spreads to turn positive into the stronger leasing season and what that could imply for future pricing. Thanks.

Speaker 4

Hi, it's Justin. Yes, so We are very encouraged by the trends and we certainly have demonstrated pricing power as we mentioned and to do so At 83 percent occupancy is just a real good indicator of the demand for senior housing, which has been Strong and growing and performing above pre pan app levels. So we would expect pricing power to persist. We demonstrated 1st with rent in house rent increases at around 8%, which was solid. The next lever we can pull is street rates and narrowing the re leasing spread, which is happening already.

Speaker 4

We would expect it to continue. There's aspects there's parts of our portfolio that are already positive terms of releasing spreads, so we certainly think that can be achieved and should be. And I'd just say We're encouraged by the trends and expect the environment to support more improvement in that area.

Operator

We will take our next question from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Good morning. Just a 2 part Good morning. Just a 2 parter, I guess one would be any April occupancy update you can provide and part 2 would be A follow-up to Austin's question. Typically, we see RevPAR year over year growth peak in the Q1 and then kind of moderated as you see some churn in the portfolio, but wondering if you can give any commentary on expectations beyond The Q2 in the context of your comment in the investor or the quarterly deck about the percentage of the portfolio having the 1 year anniversary between the second and the fourth quarter as well as the leasing spreads on how we should think about year over year RevPAR growth for the balance of the year.

Speaker 5

I'll take the second one first and let Justin talk about April 1. So you're right RevPAR traditionally at least over the last 5 years or so. If you look sequentially at the growth rate year over year, we tend to drift down over the quarters with the Q1 being supported by the in house rate increase and then the releasing spread dragging that down over the balance of the year. The dynamic and that was in the supply backdrop really. That was typically the case.

Speaker 5

What's really encouraging here is the firming street rates or new resident pricing Would suggest that that drift should improve, I. E. Ultimately a positive re leasing spread over time as discussed. So we should have a better profile over time, notwithstanding the fact that the releasing spread is still lower. But over as a trend, I would expect that would be better than supply area, particularly given the backdrop of the fundamentals.

Speaker 5

You want to talk

Speaker 1

about that?

Speaker 2

1, Page 11, of course, has April leads and move ins, which are, as Justin mentioned, ahead of pre pandemic levels. Leads were very strong. And do you want to talk about sort of entering and we're entering the key selling season obviously.

Speaker 4

Yes. One thing about the key selling season, which is really May through September. We would expect that literally 99% of our net move ins occurred during this period. So this is the red hot part of the selling season for this sector. We're around 83.3% occupied in April, Off to a good start in the quarter.

Speaker 4

As Debbie mentioned, the underlying demand has been just been really solid.

Operator

We will take our next question from Rich Anderson with SMBC. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks. Good morning. And drafting off that occupancy monthly occupancy number, you mentioned In your deck, 500 basis points to return you to pre pandemic occupancy. I think the market is probably it has an appetite for what the sequential occupancy numbers look like

Speaker 10

in your

Speaker 9

guidance for the Q2. So maybe you could give some cadence To the April, May, June expectation and also what the timeline is in your mind to capture that 500 basis

Speaker 5

So sequentially, we would expect 80 basis points of sequential average occupancy growth. The start to the quarter in April is 20 basis points, suggesting it to go if you like in the 50 on average per month for the balance of the quarter. Remember back to the key selling season that begins to accelerate here in the coming months. If you looked at last year, how we trended, that looks like a reasonable forecast. And the leads as you look this year versus last year are also favorable.

Speaker 5

So that would suggest a good setup for the guidance number.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Yes. I just wanted to stick on the seniors housing demand trends. Obviously, the leads and move ins are strong and have been strong. But How could a potential economic slowdown or even a downdraft in the housing market impact those trends? And obviously, the leads As a percent of 2019 kind of started to dip in the Q1 into April.

Speaker 11

I mean, I'm not sure if there's anything to read into that or is that just something unique 2019 versus the 2022 trends.

Speaker 4

Hi, it's Justin. So The first part of your question really refers to the macro backdrop and we've obviously been through other cycles, including one that had a housing Demand and Price Decline. There can be if it's dramatic like it was during the Great Recession, there can be an initial shock to the system. But what we saw during post kind of the initial period of the Great Recession is that senior housing It performed well and had a backdrop for a few years of limited new competition, more so than what we're seeing now. We have a real opportunity with the starts being so low and the deliveries being so low relative to that period.

Speaker 4

So The other thing too is that house wealth and income demographics in our markets are very supportive. The affordability for our product is Very, very strong. So we think we're well positioned in that regard. Right.

Speaker 2

I would say even potentially within real estate relatively advantaged because that would result in some more slack in the labor market as well. So it would change the expense equation here, while the demand and supply are favorable. So that's I think an Important point to understand. And then in terms of April, I think we're actually doing well compared to prior April.

Speaker 4

Yes. We're way ahead of April of last year in terms of absolute leads, and we're still well ahead of 2019. So we're not we're more encouraged than anything.

Speaker 2

Because those quarters embed this key selling season of May June the prior period presentation.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Yes. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 4

Just curious what For

Speaker 10

the initial conversation with Sunrise on switching the management contract over to more NOI base, kind of just how did that come about? And then is there any ability to do this with other operators?

Speaker 2

Well, this was all part of Justin's mandate that these we We keep talking about these decisive actions, operationally focused, positioning the portfolio to capture the upside. And obviously, when he first came in March of 2020, there was a lot of focus on sort of the COVID reaction and stabilization. And so now we've been taking these steps and the Sunrise is another good example of what we're trying to do to position the portfolio. Justin, you can comment in particular about how you've done this.

Speaker 4

Sure. I mean one thing I'll just mention is that Jack, Callison and the team at Sunrise have just been Performing really well and we're just couldn't be happier about having a partnership with them. And what we like about this new arrangement is It's pretty simple. If they deliver higher NOI to us, then they'll get a higher management fee. If it's lower, it's lower.

Speaker 4

So we love the alignment. They're fired up about creating value over time and we'll both benefit from this. And we definitely anticipate more of our portfolio to have this type of contract. We have several already, but We'll continue to put this type of arrangement in place.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Steven Valiquette with Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 2

So Good morning.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning. You guys touched on the obviously the pricing RevPAR environment. There is a bit of a growing vibe among some investors and conjecture from a few other senior housing companies about the potential for a multi year cycle of annual resident rate increases trending well above historical averages in the current inflationary environment. I know it's hard to predict any sort of multi year trend, but I'm wondering, Yes, at least for 2023, do you have any preliminary view on whether your rate growth in 2023 can mimic your 8% average trend in 2022? Or is there already a bias that maybe 2022 is a unique year and 2023 increases go back to historical averages?

Speaker 2

We've taken a view generally that there is this is really sustainable demand. And again, The fundamental backdrop in our markets is favorable because of The incredible drop in starts, so supply is low and it's going to stay low. We have this window of opportunity where the senior population is starting to grow and then we have an attractive kind of compelling portfolio. And so that is a backdrop. Justin Always says that the table is set.

Speaker 2

That certainly is a good backdrop for a window of opportunity over time. And our view is and I think just mentioned it too is, if you can drive rate, in place rate in the U. S. Went up 8% in January at this low occupancy level in the low 80s. As those occupancies increase and these demographic supply demand fundamentals improve, that should further support that kind of pricing power.

Speaker 2

So a lot has to go right. There's a lot of uncertainty. It may not be a straight line. I need to caution all those things. But Certainly, there is a case to be made.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Rich Hill with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I want to come back to maybe some comments in the prepared remarks. And I think specifically you said Q1 2022 capital allocation priorities continue

Speaker 9

to be

Speaker 13

acquisition and development of senior housing life Sciences in select medical office buildings. And at the risk of reading into it too much, including in the select, does that mean you're Maybe deprioritizing mobs a little bit more in favor of Senior Housing and Life Sciences or have I read into that too much?

Speaker 2

Well, when we looked at 2021, the $3,700,000,000 that we had, it was really, I think 70% senior housing, 20% life science and 10% MOBs. I mean, we've been fortunate to have had an early thesis on MOBs and and grown that business and Pete's done a great job running it. And we've done these bolt on type of acquisitions like the one we did this quarter with our Hospital partner Ardent, which was a relationship driven opportunity. So that's what I would say about our capital allocation priorities. We've been very consistent in that regard.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Omotayo Okusanya with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 14

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Debbie, congrats On the order of merits in Illinois and also BJ, welcome aboard. Question is on senior housing On the triple net portfolio in particular, again realizing you guys have made a bunch of adjustments already to some of the struggling tenants, But you still have kind of rent coverage that's still probably somewhat weak relative to historical levels. About 10% of your NOI is still tied to triple net senior housing tenants where rent coverage is below 1.

Speaker 14

How comfortable do you kind of feel that you've made all the adjustmentsrestructurings you need to do For those tenants, so is there kind of risk that you may have to expand that scope going forward?

Speaker 2

I think at this point, Tayo, because of the pandemic, we have probably touched on the vast majority of these triple net tenants and That's a lot of what we were doing during the pandemic and working with them. And as Bob said, what we've tried to do is Really get to a sustainable rent level and then participate in the upside as the industry recovers. And that's what we've done generally. So Justin, do you want to?

Speaker 4

Yes. I would just say that there has been a lot of action taken and We certainly believe that the vast majority of that's way behind us. So we'll look To see the operations improve as the rest of the sector recovers.

Operator

And we will take our next question from John Pawlowski with Green Street. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Justin, could you spend

Speaker 10

a minute just talking about specifically in Canada, what's really holding back That market from the shop fundamental perspective, occupancy remains high, but NOI, cash NOI down 2% year over year. It feels like Canada has been lagging for a while. So just a bit more specifics of what's happening on the ground there?

Speaker 4

Yes, sure. So, the main thing that really happened was the Omicron variant. And in Canada, Our communities had restrictions. They've always been much quicker to kind of shut down when there's A little bit of an outbreak or a threat of an outbreak, and so that slowed the move ins down. Canada is 93% occupied.

Speaker 4

It's going to have kind of structurally higher move outs because it doesn't have the benefit of this U. S. Portfolio that dropped so much because it's just been such a strong stable performer. So January, February had Soft move ins, March April off to a good start. So we do think there's Potential to recover, we're looking forward to Canada getting back on track.

Speaker 4

But I would just really point to COVID really to Yes.

Speaker 2

And some of those restrictions really are continuing. They have been, from a health Care standpoint, a much more rigorous kind of government controls on activities. And so It will take a little while for this to kind of run off, but it is a great portfolio and a really high performer, and we're very confident in the future performance.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi. Curious, what are your in place escalators today for the MOB and Life Science portfolio? And as you're looking at signing new leases today, are the new escalators something considerably higher?

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks, Mike. This is Pete. Thanks for the question. Yes, our escalators are about 2.5 Right now in place escalators for MOB and they're about the same for R and I.

Speaker 10

And we are certainly pushing limits on that. We're starting pushing to 3% and in some cases higher. And Another related comment would be we are trying to push more CPI related escalators as we deal with this inflationary environment. And we're In some places, we're finding success. In others, we're just we're settling for higher escalators in the 3% and 3% plus ranges.

Operator

And we will take our next question from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So I know you haven't given Q3 guidance, but just trying to put together various numbers here to Trying to think about what a 3rd quarter sequential occupancy growth could look like for the SHOP portfolio. I mean, last year, 3rd quarter grew sequentially 2 30 basis points. I think you said, Bob, in the guidance for the Q2 that May June, we're assuming about 50 a month.

Speaker 7

So should we use that 50 a month kind of assume that pace Could continue in the Q3, so you get to around 150 basis points for the quarter or you're closer to 200 if you look at The numbers from last year, just trying to kind of frame out a possible occupancy growth scenario for the Q3. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Great try. Great try. Let's focus on we're very focused on executing and delivering in the second and you're right about The expectations for the second and we have said we expect sustained NOI improvement through the year.

Speaker 5

I would just add sequentially, which to your point 3 versus 2, this key selling season in occupancy Manifest itself.

Speaker 2

And will be crucial to determining the answer to your question.

Speaker 5

So fundamental, but seasonal patterns would suggest Q3, AAC is sequentially favorable.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thanks so much for the answer taking the follow-up. Just sort of in this market, with all the volatility, I'm just wondering your views on 2 things. 1, just using the fund more actively that you've created. And 2, maybe given the medical office environment, Using that as a source of capital for other growth, just all tying that all into the balance sheet and where you see leverage or how you see leverage trending over the next 12 months.

Speaker 2

Well, thanks. Yes, the fund is a great It's a competitive advantage that we have. We started in March of 2020 and our overall third party Management business is up to about $5,000,000,000 of assets under management. It generally is focused on kind of lower cap rate core type assets. And so, to the extent there was an opportunity there that made sense, that is an attractive asset that we have.

Speaker 2

Bob, do you want to talk about the balance sheet?

Speaker 5

Sure. In terms of leverage, it's a little bit of a broken record, but the recovery of the $300,000,000 of NOI we lost in shop in the pandemic is really the key to unlock the leverage ratio back into 5 to 6 times. We're trending that direction, which is encouraging. In the meantime, we've been doing other things such as upgrading the portfolio through asset sales, for example, last year reducing near term debt, extending duration, things like that, to make sure that we're in a good spot, which we are.

Speaker 10

And we

Operator

will take our next question from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Yes. Hey, guys. I wanted to ask about the once and drag from the life science redevelopment. It seems like 2 tenants Moved out. Did you disclose who those tenants were?

Speaker 5

Nova, we disclosed the locations, which maybe Pete can give a little color.

Speaker 10

Sure. Yes. This is Pete. So yes, we just as a reminder, life sciences is one of our high Capital Priorities. Over the last couple of years, the Research Innovation portfolio has performed very well.

Speaker 10

And what we found Consistently is when we have ready lab space that the space leases up very quickly and at very good rates. It's unique space in the marketplace and there's a shortage of it across the country. So, one of our upcoming vacancies is in Raleigh, very near Research Triangle Park. And it's a straight office tenant that is departing. And it's this building is within is associated with Wake Forest University.

Speaker 10

It's in the Innovation Center. It's adjacent to the medical school that they have. And so we think that there is a good probability that we would redevelop that space into lab space and be very successful in releasing it. The other is in Is associated with our Keystone Properties and Sorry, I mixed you over. Yes.

Speaker 10

There's 2.

Speaker 2

There's 2. 1 is in RTP and one is in the Wake Innovation Center, and they both could be very in demand for kind of lab space. So that's what we're undertaking.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Ms. Deborah Cafaro for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Okay. Well, thank you, Abby, and thank you to everyone who joined us today. We really appreciate your support and participation and are excited about the quarter, excited about the senior housing recovery that's underway and look forward to seeing you soon.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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