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S&P 500   4,967.23
DOW   37,986.40
QQQ   414.65
How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 4/19/2024
Stock market today: Tumbling tech stocks drag Wall Street to the finish line of another losing week
American Express profits jump 34%, helped by jump in new customers, higher spending
American Express, Fifth Third rise; Netflix, PPG Industries fall, Friday, 4/19/2024
Intuitive Surgical Stock Can Trend Much Higher This Year 
3 Magnificent Seven Stocks Outperforming the Rest
Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks With RSIs That Scream Oversold
S&P 500   4,967.23
DOW   37,986.40
QQQ   414.65
How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 4/19/2024
Stock market today: Tumbling tech stocks drag Wall Street to the finish line of another losing week
American Express profits jump 34%, helped by jump in new customers, higher spending
American Express, Fifth Third rise; Netflix, PPG Industries fall, Friday, 4/19/2024
Intuitive Surgical Stock Can Trend Much Higher This Year 
3 Magnificent Seven Stocks Outperforming the Rest
Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks With RSIs That Scream Oversold
S&P 500   4,967.23
DOW   37,986.40
QQQ   414.65
How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 4/19/2024
Stock market today: Tumbling tech stocks drag Wall Street to the finish line of another losing week
American Express profits jump 34%, helped by jump in new customers, higher spending
American Express, Fifth Third rise; Netflix, PPG Industries fall, Friday, 4/19/2024
Intuitive Surgical Stock Can Trend Much Higher This Year 
3 Magnificent Seven Stocks Outperforming the Rest
Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks With RSIs That Scream Oversold

NRG Energy Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript


Listen to Conference Call

Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Kevin Cole
    Head of Investor Relations
  • Mauricio Gutierrez
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Alberto Fornaro
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
  • Robert J. Gaudette
    Executive Vice President, NRG Business
  • Rob Gaudette
    Head of Business and Market Operations
  • Elizabeth Killinger
    Head of Home

Presentation

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NRG Energy Inc.'s First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kevin Cole, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kevin Cole
Head of Investor Relations at NRG Energy

Thank you, Kim. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This morning's call will be 45 minutes in length and is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations and Webcasts.

Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law.

In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Mauricio Gutierrez, NRG's President and CEO.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in NRG. I'm joined this morning by Alberto Fornaro, Chief Financial Officer; and also on the call and available for questions, we have Elizabeth Killinger, Head of Home; Rob Gaudette, Head of Business and Market Operations; and Chris Moser, Head of Competitive Markets on policy.

I'd like to start on Slide 4 by highlighting the three key messages for today's presentation. First, our business delivered strong results in the first quarter, and we are maintaining our 2022 guidance ranges. Second, we are well positioned going into the summer with a balanced risk management strategy designed to provide stability through volatile market conditions. And finally, we continue to advance our strategic growth priorities, moving closer to the customer while being excellent stewards of your capital.

Moving to the first quarter results on Slide 5, we delivered top best I/O safety performance and $509 million of adjusted EBITDA. This result is in line with the first quarter of last year when adjusted for asset sales and the outage of Limestone. But when including supply chain constraints and higher ancillaries, it is a very strong result, driven by our core operations.

The Limestone power plant in Texas returned to service in April, on time, on budget and ready for the summer. I want to thank the operations team for completing this project on schedule despite a difficult supply chain backdrop.

Now moving to direct energy integration, we are reaffirming both 2022 and the full planned targets. As part of our capital-light strategy, we have now signed 2.6 gigawatts of renewable PPAs in ERCOT with 45% currently in service and the remaining expected to come online over the next couple of years. These assets are geographically diverse within Texas and have an average tenure of 12 years. We will continue to execute on this strategy and grow our renewable PPAs. But I do expect the development of renewable projects to slow down in the near term, given supply chain constraints and regulatory uncertainty.

Finally, we are executing on our $1 billion share buyback program, which Alberto will provide additional details. And we are maintaining our 2022 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth guidance ranges. Over the past few months, we all have seen the significant increase in energy prices, particularly natural gas.

I want to take a moment to discuss how our business is positioned to navigate through these volatile market conditions on Slide 6, beginning on the left-hand side of the slide with our hedge tables for this year and next year. As you can see, we are well hedged against our expected load with a combination of our own generation portfolio and third-party hedges. This is by design as it also allows us to maintain predictable and stable margins while mitigating the impact of short-term market volatility for our customers. As a matter of fact, this is probably one of the biggest benefits of competitive markets. Retail companies that hedged can mitigate the impact of short-term market disruptions for their customers.

In the medium to long term, our platform is uniquely positioned to manage structural changes in commodity prices. We have a proven commercial team that manages commodity price risk across our portfolio, all the way from our power plants to our retail brands, providing them with significant visibility on the fundamentals of our core markets. On the retail side, our pricing team has significant insights on price elasticity, given the scale and scope of our customer base.

And finally, we have a multibrand, multichannel, multiproduct strategy that ensures we're tailoring solutions for each customer segment, while balancing customer retention and margins. We continue to execute on our five-year growth road map and are making great progress across many of our initiatives, as you can see on Slide 7.

On our last earnings call, I provided an overview of all the solutions and capabilities currently available and in development for our customers in two areas: energy services and home services. Today, I want to focus on 1 area of growth that I'm especially excited about, energy resilience. Goal Zero is our home energy resilience and storage company that has been part of NRG since 2014. When we acquired the company, their primary focus was to serve a niche market of outdoor enthusiasts. And while they were a market leader in that space, the total addressable market was limited. Recognizing that extreme weather events and power outages were only going to increase, given climate change and an aging power grid, we shifted the company's strategy to address energy resilience head on.

Today, Goal Zero's energy resilience products are clean, accessible and affordable. Their power stations and solar generators are modular and portable, meaning they can provide resilience to any apartment, residential home or recreational vehicle of any size, something a gas generator or rooftop solar system cannot do. They're also scalable, enabling customers to design a resilient solution that can expand in the future, therefore, balancing budget and need. Importantly, these products cost a fraction of what a standby genset or rooftop solar system cost fully installed, which allows us to serve an even broader customer base, and they require minimal installation. These are just some of the reasons why customers love Goal Zero products, giving them a Net Promoter Score above 70, a meeting that is typically reserved for best-in-class brands.

In the last three years, Goal Zero has grown revenue at a 50% CAGR and gross margin of around 40%. While the overall revenue and gross margin of the business today remains small compared to the core operating platform, the energy resilience market is expected to grow at 50% CAGR through 2025, and we expect Goal Zero to grow along with it, and this is before considering external factors that could potentially drive growth even higher. For example, last December, California announced a ban on gas generator sales beginning in 2028. Such policy decisions by local and state governments will only increase demand for Goal Zero's products.

The team is already working on the next generation of solar powered generators that will launch in 2023 with a focus on storage technology upgrades, enhanced home integration and a better digital customer experience. I look forward to providing you updates on their progress as we bring new products to market and integrate these solutions closer with our core energy offerings.

So with that, I will pass it over to Alberto for the financial review.

Alberto Fornaro
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at NRG Energy

Thank you, Mauricio. I will now turn to Slide 9 for a review of the first quarter results. For the quarter, NRG delivered $509 million in adjusted EBITDA, a $58 million decrease versus prior year, excluding the impact of Winter Storm Uri in 2021. Results were reduced by $50 million for the divestiture of 4.8 gigawatt full-sized generation assets in the East and West and of the whole home warranty business.

In addition, the lack of availability of Limestone Unit 1 in Q1 2022 and other outages impacted negatively the quarter. Excluding these items, adjusted EBITDA would have been higher than Q1 last year, and this strong result is driven by our diversified portfolio, allowing us to deliver through inflationary pressures and commodity price volatility.

I'm also pleased to report the total impact of coal constraints have been limited to date. In Texas, lower power prices helped mitigate the overall coal requirement versus expectations. And in the East, we were able to procure more than what we initially estimated.

Looking forward, while we have seen overall improvement in the availability of coal, the U.S. railroad delivery network remains fragile. And so while we have made progress in '18, the realized financial impact of the constraints, we continue to tightly manage our coal burn.

Moving to Q1 results by geography, Texas results were in line with prior year when factoring in the previously discussed plant outages. Turning to the East, West and Other segment, as in prior quarters, we were able to leverage our portfolio of natural gas assets to deliver strong results through a volatile market. These benefits were offset by the impact of previously discussed divestiture of generation assets and the whole home warranty business. We continue to make progress on our synergy target, delivering $31 million in incremental synergies during the quarter. We are quite pleased with this progress, and we are well on our way to deliver on our 2022 and full plan committee.

Lastly, you will note at the bottom of the slide that we are maintaining our previous guidance ranges for the full year adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth. We remain focused on executing our overall 2022 plan, and we look forward to providing you additional updates throughout the year.

I will turn now to Slide 10 for a brief update on our 2022 capital allocation. Moving left to right at the midpoint of our free cash flow before growth, guidance remains unchanged at $1.290 billion.

Next, a reminder on Winter Storm Uri, the total net 2021 earnings impact of the storm to energy was $380 million, which included an accrual for $696 million of expected mitigants. As we discussed on our fourth quarter call, we expect to receive $689 million by the end of the second quarter. And this will be partially offset by $97 million of bill credits that will be issued to C&I customers for a total net cash inflow of $599 million to be realized in 2022.

Moving to the right and focusing on the changes from last quarter shown in blue, total SPAC cash used to fund our $1.40 per share dividend decreased by $5 million as a result of less share outstanding.

Next, we have made good progress in executing our $1 billion share repurchase program. Since the beginning of the year, we have repurchased $262 million to be added to the $39 million in 2021. The remaining balance of $699 million will be completed over the next several months.

Lastly, we expected to have $315 million of remaining cash available for allocation, of which we have earmarked approximately $100 million to fund the initial project in our $2 billion growth plan, which also includes initiatives that will be launched to accelerate the growth of our Goal Zero business. Back to you, Mauricio.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Thank you, Alberto. Now turning to Slide 12, I want to provide a few closing thoughts on today's presentation. We delivered very strong results for the first quarter despite volatile market conditions, and we are well positioned to deliver through all market cycles. Despite a backdrop of commodity price volatility, inflation and difficult economic conditions, one thing remains the same. Customers value our brands and the products and solutions we offer. We continue to be relentlessly focused on not just meeting the consumers where they are, but also looking around the corner to meet them where they're going. I have never been more excited about the future of NRG, and I look forward to updating you on our progress along the way as we execute on our growth road map.

So with that, I want to thank you for your time and interest in NRG. Kim, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

Questions and Answers

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey. Good morning, team. Thanks for the time. Hope you guys are well.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Hey, Julien. Good morning.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Good morning. Thank you. Listen, so the marketplace has been focused on the volatility in the commodity price uptick of late. And obviously, the pivot that you guys have been towards an asset-light model has gotten folks' attention here.

Can you guys address more squarely how you're thinking about mitigating those risks, especially on a longer-term basis as you think about not just the basic blocks, but the peaks and troughs, if you will, of consumption and how you're addressing the risk mitigation there? Just try to address some of these market fears, especially given how quickly the overall market backdrop has been moving.

And then maybe in tandem with that, can you speak to how your retail pricing is evolving, i.e., how quickly are you able to reflect this back to your customers right now? It seems like power to choose is seeing something of an uplift of late.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Yes, Julien. Well, okay. So this is a really long question and --

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Take it as you will.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

We can take a long time to have this conversation. But let me just say that at the end of the day, we have designed a platform that is stable and provides visibility and stability on margins, right? So what we provided you on one of the slides is not just how we are positioned on the short term, medium term, but also to the long run. So for 2022, 2023, we're pretty well hedged against expected load, and I feel very comfortable with that.

As you think about perhaps -- if you have a structural change on the commodity price curve that is longer term, first of all, I think the industry does a really good job in passing through those costs, not only increasing cost but also decreasing costs. I mean that is one of the strengths of competitive markets. But the second thing, and I think this is very important, are the competitive advantages that we have as a company. And I'm not going to list again everything that I put on the slide. But first, I will just tell you this. We have best-in-class risk management capabilities with our commercial team. We have a retail pricing team that is pricing customers every day and the insights that we get from that and the scale and scope of our customer base allows us just to have really good insights in terms of pricing, depending on different customer segments.

And finally is our unique go-to-market strategy that we laid out, multi-brand product and channel that allows us to tailor solutions for each of the customer segments.

So now obviously, that's like the big structure of how we provide more stability on margins. Now keep in mind that we have also a lot of tools to be able to manage specific volatility for certain hours and for certain months. Not only we have the flex of risk management capability on the supply side, on the wholesale side and tremendous amount of information on how the power grid works. But also on the retail side, remember, we're working very closely with our customers to incentivize demand side management.

So we actually help our customers lower their energy bills by incentivizing them to do them and respond. So not only we have capabilities on the wholesale side, but we also have tools on the retail side to ensure that we balance our position. And we -- at the end of the day, the goal is to have stable margins and help our customers with managing their own bills.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Got it. All right. Excellent. And if you don't mind, Mauricio, I mean, more strategically here, you guys have been on this journey towards an asset-light model for a little while here. What is the latest uptick in commodity prices impact that, right? And what I mean by that is, is there actually an opportunity to monetize your generation assets at yet a higher value now? Does that actually tilt you towards monetizing further rather than this perception that owning generation right now is the right way forward?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Well, I mean, I think we embrace the asset-light strategy a few years ago. We launched the renewable PPAs, Julien, and I think everybody can see now the benefits of it, given the increase in commodity prices. So I am very pleased with the team and how they executed. Today, we provided 1 additional disclosure, which is how many of those megawatts now are in line or on service. We continue to work with developers and our partners to continue growing. Those megawatts add value for us and also add value for them, because we provide them a much needed long-term contracts so they can actually finance those renewable plants and bring them to market.

With respect to how I think about the generation portfolio in context of our retail, remember, now we -- a few years ago, we shifted the focus of the generation portfolio. Now their purpose now is to serve our customers. And I think we have done exactly that by rightsizing our generation portfolio and making sure that we keep the assets and not just own, but also third-party contracted assets to better serve our customers in the most cost-effective way.

So I think that's going to continue to be our North Star as we look at optimizing our portfolio and the rest of our generation portfolio going forward.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst at Bank of America

Got it. Understood. Okay, guys. Thank you.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Thank you, Julien.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Your line is now open.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim

Hey. Good morning, guys.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Good morning, Shahr.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim

I just want to just follow up on Julien's question, maybe just drill down a little bit on the capital-light strategy, especially if these curves aren't transitory, right, the moves. I mean maybe looking at -- sort of at slightly different angle, is there any potential interest even on the margin of owning generation, especially if the curve moves aren't transitory? And I couldn't get a sense with your prepared remarks. Do you believe the curve moves are transitory or sort of sticky and even have more upside given what's been going around us? So what are you assuming with your planning assumptions?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Well, so let's start with the last part of your question. I mean, when I look at the forward curves today, particularly in ERCOT, from my perspective, a forward curve should actually reflect the fundamentals of a market. And when I look at the fundamentals of the ERCOT market today, what I see is very healthy reserve margins. I think this year, we're going to be around in the high 20%. And over the planning period on the next 5 years, I think it goes to low 30%. I think this has been the highest reserve margin since the market went competitive more than a few years ago.

So now there is a fundamental shift here in terms of the composition of that reserve margin, and that is the amount of renewable energy that we have in the market. So when renewables perform well, we have plenty of capacity to mid low. When renewables don't perform that well, it's a little tighter. But I mean, when you look at a 26%, 27% reserve margin for the year, it's kind of hard to justify some of the scarcity hours that are embedded in the forward prices.

So -- and if you put on top of that how ERCOT is running the grid, which is very conservative, I would think that, perhaps, there is a little too much excitement right now in the forward market that [dislocated] from the fundamental reality of the market. So I mean that's how I think about it and I mean that's my perspective on the market. Obviously, market prices for us are being -- or have been very muted in our business strategy. Our platform -- our integrated platform will perform under a number of commodity price cycles, whether it's low or whether it's high, and we have proven that.

Now with your first question around what does that mean for our asset-light strategy and for that matter, for our supply strategy. Our supply strategy will always be informed by market dynamics. Always. It's not like we have a strategy and then we go to bed and wake up 3 years later. So based on what we're seeing now, and importantly, what ERCOT and the PUCT are doing to provide more regulatory certainty around market design changes, that is going to inform how are we going to optimize our generation portfolio going forward. I don't know if that means more asset capital-light megawatts. I don't know if that means partnering with some developers to bring new generation to market. I think at the end of the day, we all recognize that we need more dispatchable generation in the system, and that's a good thing. And we know that we can play a big role of that, but the role that we're going to play is different than what we have done in the past.

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim

Got it. That's helpful. And then, Mauricio, can you just maybe be slightly more specific on what you're seeing in the PPA market today, given sort of the commodity moves in the tariff circumvention tail was. I mean, have you been able to add contracts as needed this spring? And any issues with your current contracts that may be under construction now? So just maybe elaborate a little bit on potential slowdowns in that market.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Sure. Well, I'm going to ask Rob Gaudette, he's been leading our renewable PPA effort for now quite some time and now you have -- you're parked and you're lodged. So Rob?

Robert J. Gaudette
Executive Vice President, NRG Business at NRG Energy

Good morning. Let me take that in parts. So as we disclosed today, we've got 45% of the portfolio flowing, right? So we've got no risks on that side, which is a good thing, and it's working out for us in a lot of ways. We also have an additional set of contracts. You can -- the 55% that's out there. We have minimal, like, less than 100 megs of stuff that we're expecting this year and then the stuff -- the rest is out in the '23 and '24.

We are in communication with these guys on a monthly basis. If they're starting into their construction phase, so that depends on when the contract starts. We're monitoring that just like we would any other power plant. And just -- we've said this before, but I'll say it again for history. We're in the market every, call it, three to six months with a new RFP, looking and assessing every type of product so that we can build a portfolio for the business.

As you would expect, people's prices are going up over time and a lot of that uncertainty is around things like labor or general inflation around steel. The Commerce lawsuit right now, that's obviously scared the market. To date, any of our contracts that we have out in front of us that are not flowing, we haven't received any notices or issues. We monitor that, and we talk to those guys fairly regularly. But Mauricio said it and I concur, I would expect, given the price environment, meaning the cost environment for developers, I would expect a little bit of a slowdown in renewable development kind of across the country. Does that answer your question?

Shahriar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim

It does. It was actually pretty comprehensive. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it. Thanks, Mauricio.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

No problem, Shar. Just to put a finer point on what Rob said. I mean the remaining 55% is basically 2023 and 2024. We don't have any exposure right now in 2022 from projects that will come online. I mean, it's de minims. So we feel very comfortable with our portfolio going forward.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Your line is now open.

Angie Storozynski
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Good morning guys.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Good morning Angie.

Angie Storozynski
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Good morning. So my first question is about Midwest Gen. Can you tell us anything about these assets? I mean do you have additional coal supplies to run these assets more in this current natural gas price environment and how that ties into your earnings outlook for this year and maybe even forward years?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Yes Angie. So, let me just start by saying that the Midwest Generation portfolio we announced a few retirements at the Investor Day if you remember Angie. And all we're doing right now is where some of those assets are just moving to retirement. I think we extended one of those -- we extend one month just because we need to burn the coal pile.

And that is -- I mean of course, it will capture additional economics. But the most important thing is from an environmental standpoint, I think it's better that we just go through the pilot as opposed to bringing trucks and getting the coal out. So, I think that's the main goal.

And with respect to whether you can expand the life of the assets that we announced retirement, no we're not going to. I mean and the main reason why is because there is a tremendous amount of logistics that go into it from personnel to maintenance dollars to fuel supply.

So, once you make a decision like this, it's very hard to pull back and we are not going to pull back. Obviously, the other two assets part Angie will continue to operate and whether you have higher energy prices or higher capacity prices or whatever dynamics are they will -- we'll optimize those assets.

Now, I want to remind you Angie that we actually zeroed out the contribution of the Midwest Gen portfolio on our economic outlook that we provided to you at Investor Day. So, I think this is an important part. So we actually have no -- we haven't reflected any economic contribution from these assets.

Angie Storozynski
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Okay. And moving on to Texas and also your 2022 guidance. So you mentioned that any sort of constraints related to coal have subsided even though rail services is still fragile. You had low realized power prices in Texas, while Limestone was out, the Limestone is back. So, those were two big drags on your 2022 guidance. So, is there any offset as you -- as we stand right now to your expectations for 2022? I'm just wondering, why they haven't moved up?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Yes. So I mean, as I mentioned, we have a really strong quarter -- first quarter. The team did an excellent job in managing supply chain issues with coal, particularly product availability. And as Alberto mentioned, now, the issue is around railroad logistics and cycle times we're working with our railroad partners as we go into the summer. And so those constraints or those supply chain issues have moved now from product to transportation. I think, I'm not -- I'm very comfortable that the team is going to manage them well. But at the same time, we need to be prudent.

In the past, Angie, I have revised our guidance in the third quarter call and I am going to continue to do that. I'm very optimistic where we are. And now just to keep in mind, just like we're managing some of those headwinds that we had in the outset of the year, we're also deploying some growth capital dollars. And I think, we earmarked that for this year around $100 million which is 5% of our $2 billion. So that is embedded within the guidance. So you have some puts and takes. And while we have been able to manage really well, our coal constraints that has been offset by the capital that we're deploying for growth, which will have a return, but nonetheless it was not part of the original guidance. So think of that as the cost of mines.

Angie Storozynski
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Okay. And lastly, it looks like the summer came early to Texas or is about to come early to Texas. We wish we have the case in the Northeast. But anyway, so how -- I mean everybody talks about the strong load and I know that the biggest risk to your retail assets or retail earnings is your accurate estimates of load and hedging of that load. I mean, as you go into this next week, next couple of days, how concerned are you?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Okay. Well, I will ask Rob to -- with this new responsibility to address that. Rob?

Rob Gaudette
Head of Business and Market Operations at NRG Energy

So I'm not going to go into the, how scared I am on a Friday before a weekend event. But I'll tell you that, we saw and I'm sure you've seen, the weekend was trading, call it in the $300 to $400 range at the beginning of the week. That was a concern around heat which we are getting early heat here in Texas, but it was also concern about lack of wind. The heat has moderated model over models. The market is half of where it was and wind is up. But as we go into these events, we feel very comfortable where we're at because we are hedging up our load going into it. And then when it comes to excursion time, inside of a one week or two weeks, we're managing and watching that, but we also have our fleet ready to go for events like this. So I'm going to sleep okay.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Angie, and if I can, just take a little bit of a step back and I know, Rob focus on NRG specifically. But, I mean, keep in mind that the ERCOT system is designed for summer weather. And I think we have been very successful in managing through a number of record peak loads. So, yes, this is certainly heat, but it's not like the system -- the electric system wasn't designed to handle this type of load.

So, I mean, I feel that the supply and the amount of capacity that exists in the market is good to meet the demand and we have a lot more capabilities to actually manage demand today than we did before. So as Rob said, I think our risk management and our supply is going to be okay as we go into the next couple of days and then going into the summer.

Angie Storozynski
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Very good. Congratulations. Thanks. Bye-bye.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Thank you, Angie.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Keith Stanley
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hi. Thank you. First, I just wanted to clarify the prior question. The $100 million of growth investment that's earmarked for later this year, is that part of CapEx, or is that in operating cost and could impact EBITDA for the year?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Good morning, Keith. It's a combination. If you remember during Investor Day I said, as we start deploying this growth capital, it's going to be a combination of OpEx and CapEx. And the way you need to think about the OpEx is, when we're doing this organic growth, some of it is going to be just incremental selling and marketing and acquiring customers.

Remember the growth is not just adding new capabilities, but also growing our core offerings of power gas and dual-fuel. So it's going to be a combination. And that's why I was saying, as you think about the guidance that we provided, we've seen some really good management on coal supply issues and that's offset by some of the capital that we're deploying that will have a return.

But remember, when you're doing this organic type of growth that return can -- there is a lag, 12 to 18 months. So there is that offset in our results and that's why I feel very comfortable maintaining our guidance.

Keith Stanley
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Got it. A separate question, just wanted to ask on direct. It seems like the business is doing very well with the gas price volatility that we're seeing. Can you talk a little more to some of the key gas logistics assets and contracts you have at direct, I guess, where they're located and maybe some more examples of how you're able to optimize around the gas price volatility that we're seeing?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

So, you mean, give you the secret sauce for how we optimize our gas business, Keith? Well, let me just tell you. As I have described the business in the past, this is really a logistics business. We don't take price risk, you may recall, okay. So when we sign customers, we buy the supply. And as we are serving those customers, there is a lot of assets that come with it. And those assets can be gas storage, kind of, like capacity -- contracts with the LDC, distribution assets.

And -- so this is really a basis optimization business and basis -- when you're optimizing just the different regional points it's all about information. And I mean, I already described our commercial operations team and I have -- and in the past, I have said that, the gas commercial operations team that we acquired from Direct Energy is best-in-class. I have been incredibly impressed, and I think the results speak for themselves. So without going into specific things on what pipeline capacity we have, or what storage we have, all I will tell you, it is a very good business as predictable, and the team is best-in-class.

And I'm really excited of the capability that we have. And also, one important aspect is actually complementary to our power business. So usually, when gas prices rise people get concerned about power. Well, now we have an opportunity to monetize some of that volatility in the gas market and complement that with our power business. So really excited about what we put together between power and gas.

Keith Stanley
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Thank you.

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research. Your line is now open

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research

Yeah. Good morning, guys.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Hey, good morning, Jonathan.

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research

Just a couple on the new businesses and maybe one that you exited, I think. The focus on today, Mauricio is that, sort of one of the things you're doing, or just how -- is it the one that's sort of you're most focused on, or do you just kind of pull out as an example for us?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Yes. Well, I mean so two things. Number one, it is an incredibly exciting market. The energy resilience market has grown leaps and bounds over the past couple of years. That is the result of what we are all experiencing in terms of extreme weather, and events power outages. California is a perfect example. So we have been working on these and perfecting the energy solutions for a number of years.

Today, we're kind of pulling the [Indecipherable] of this business a little bit more as I committed to all of you to increase disclosures during the year. The energy solutions that, they have to meet a customers' needs today. It is an invasive market. The growth that we're seeing is very attractive.

The margins that, we have are very attractive because of these nascent characteristics of this new market. And importantly, I will tell you that, the -- what I've seen the teamwork on the next-generation of solutions in terms of integrating different storage technologies looking at the power electronics. So it's easier to interface with the critical circuits in your home and this digital customer interface.

I'm just very excited about the solutions that we're bringing to the market that, I think -- right now, there is a big, big niche that is not met by other district GM technologies whether it's the big batteries or whether it's gas generators. So all I will tell you is that, this is a very exciting and important part of our capability. And importantly, it's complementary to the existing business that we have. So we see a lot of potential on cross-selling bundling this energy resilience to our current offerings.

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research

Could you give us any insight Mauricio into how much of what you've done so far is cross-sold and where it's sort of multiproduct customers or to what extent it's sort of doing its own thing?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

I mean, right now, it is really the market -- the product on its own has been incredibly exciting, because of -- particularly in California. But this is an area that we're focusing on right now on the cross-sell, right? How do you create these new products and with our existing offering?

So you're going to hear a whole lot more about that in the coming months and quarters. This is the focus right now of that business. And like I said, I mean, product always has an evolution. And I think that the energy solution that we have right now is one that just fits very well with the current core offering that we give to our customers.

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research

And maybe if I could just squeeze in any comment on why you decided to exit the home service -- the warranty business, which I think was part of the sort of suite that you laid out at the Analyst Day, and then it maybe might have come with direct if I remember correctly?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Yes. So Jonathan, if you remember, I said to all of you during Investor Day that we were evaluating every single one of these capabilities to provide a new experience on two big categories, energy services and home service. But I also mentioned to all of you that, we didn't need to completely vertically integrate every single one of them. In some cases, we were going to partner. In some cases, we were going to own the entire value chain.

In the case of energy resilience and Goal Zero, we are going to own it. We're going to have it and we're moving this forward. In the case of North America, we decided to monetize these and keep in mind that that was in that we're not going to be on home services. You need to think about these in two ways. You have home protection and you have whole home warranties. So what we sold is the whole home warranties and what we're advancing is the home protection services. So, I mean, my expectation is that in the future we're going to work with our strategic partners for the home warranty -- whole home warranty business. And right now we're testing and learning our home protection.

Jonathan Arnold
Analyst at Vertical Research

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

We have one more question from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Michael Lapides
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Thank you for taking my question. It's a two-parter, but they're obviously related. And it's stuff that we thought about prior to winter Storm Uri but when you first announced direct. First of all, what's your expectation, or how are you thinking about the growth in mass market customer counts in Texas, meaning what you think your market growth is a number of individual accounts survey? Kind of what are you embedding in your forecast for that? And how you're thinking about customer churn?

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Good. So, good morning, Michael. I'm going to ask Elizabeth to address the customer retention and customer count. Elizabeth?

Elizabeth Killinger
Head of Home at NRG Energy

Yes, Michael, thanks for the question. So I'll start by saying that we are very pleased with both our customer acquisition and our customer retention performance. You may recall last year was a record year for retention for us and that is all underneath that acquisition. So one of the things that the DE acquisition which was sizable. And every time we do a major acquisition, you do see some transition of customers and I am really happy with our performance.

And as I mentioned, it's slightly better than we expected for the first quarter and the acquisition is also slightly better than the first quarter. As we look out with the rising customer prices just because COGS are up, we do expect to see more market activity. And given the strength of our multi-brand, multi-product, multichannel platform there is no other competitor that has the sweet spot for kind of the innovative pioneer with Reliance and NRG, the renewable pioneer with Green Mountain, the approval or cost-conscious with our zero and discount platforms. And then with our DE platform, which is really allowing customers to direct where they want their energy and to create that on their own.

We are positioned very well to navigate this year. We will have some transitions though with the DE attrition and the small book acquisition attrition, but I'm very pleased. And you asked the question about what we think the potential is. We absolutely expect this transition to grow. We see the Lubbock market opening up next year. In fact -- they applied to the PUCT just I think sometime this week. And -- but all the approvals needed are done. And so we are really excited about the platform we have and the potential for our future.

Michael Lapides
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Got it. And if I can one quick follow-up. Another big piece when I think about your communication when you first announced the direct deal was converting single fuel customers into dual-fuel customers. And if I'm not mistaken that's much more of an East Coast than an ERCOT or a Texas item. Can you talk about how much progress you've made in doing that? Meaning of the East Coast customers who have inherited what percent in the 15 months, 16 months that you've owned direct have you been able to convert in a dual-fuel?

Elizabeth Killinger
Head of Home at NRG Energy

Yes. So I'm not going to give you the specific percentage, but what I will tell you is we have initiatives underway both in the East and in Canada focused on doing two things. Number one selling more gas directly because we doubled with the Direct Energy acquisition. We doubled our capabilities there. So we have a lot more of that single fuel. So we'll grow that way.

We'll also grow in the dual fuel way where we're selling not a single product, but a second product and in some cases a bundled offer for the whole home. So electricity and gas are sold as a single offering. So lots of activity is underway. We are seeing that new customer sales significant success. Again just a couple of percentage points better on the new sale rate for those customers buying dual fuel where that's an option. And most importantly, really setting up our platform so that we can sell not only dual-fuel but other products and services as it makes sense given the unique markets that we have.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

And Michael, I mean, this is one of the incremental disclosures that we'll be giving throughout the year. So if you recall last quarter, we provided you with additional effect in disclosure. This quarter we're starting to provide the disclosures around the new capabilities. So I think what you should expect is more metrics around our efforts on how we're progressing with this new focus on selling more than just one problem.

Michael Lapides
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciate it.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Thank you, Michael.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Mauricio Gutierrez.

Mauricio Gutierrez
President and Chief Executive Officer at NRG Energy

Well, thank you. I look forward to speaking with all of you. Thank you for your interest in NRG. This is a very exciting time for the company and a very exciting time for our industry. So I look forward to continuing to provide you with updates on our initiatives.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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