Essex Property Trust Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 27, 2022

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

And welcome to the Essex Property Trust Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. Statements made on this conference call regarding expected operating results and other future events are Forward looking statements are made based on current expectations, assumptions and beliefs as well as information available to the company at this time. A number of factors could cause actual Results to differ materially from those anticipated. Further information about these risks can be found on the and filings with the SEC.

Operator

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Michael Scholl, President and Chief Executive Officer for to Property Trust. Thank you, Mr. Scholl. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you for joining us today, and welcome to our Q2 earnings conference call. Angela Kleinman and Barb PAC will follow me with prepared remarks and Adam Barry is here for Q and A. I will start with a summary of our 2nd quarter results and then highlight the strong underlying momentum in the Essex portfolio, especially in the markets Benefiting from the return to office programs of large tech companies and finish with a brief overview of the apartment transaction market. We are pleased to announce our 4th consecutive quarter of improving results with core FFO up 21.1% From the same quarter last year, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and achieving the 2nd best quarterly growth Since the company's IPO in 1994. Given our strong year to date results, we increased our guidance ranges for same property revenues, NOI and core FFO for a 3rd time in 2022, which Barb will discuss further in her commentary.

Speaker 1

Beginning with operating fundamentals, net effective rents for new leases are now 16% above pre COVID levels And 20.6% higher year over year compared to the Q2 of 2021. Job growth remains robust at 5 point 6% for June year over year, substantially outperforming the U. S. And reflecting the ongoing recovery from the massive COVID Related Job Losses in 2020. Page S17.1 of our earnings supplement Demonstrates the surge in rents in the tech markets of Northern California and Seattle, the largest and last markets in our portfolio to fully recover from the pandemic.

Speaker 1

Net effective rents have increased between 18% 20% year to date, reflecting momentum from return to office programs and very Strong job growth. Fundamental research from our data analytics team indicates job openings at the largest Technology companies have moderated recently off the very high levels throughout the pandemic with job openings now About 15% above pre COVID levels compared to about 77% last quarter. Unlike other industries within our markets, the tech sector was better positioned to pivot to hybrid work in response to the pandemic and accelerated hiring. As a result, labor demand for the most highly skilled workers at the large technology companies remains solid, implying job formation in excess as for the number of recently announced layoffs in our markets, which we highlight on Page S17.2 of our earnings supplement. Given the focus on tech layoffs recently, it's relevant to note the definition of what constitutes a tech company Has broadened to include businesses that have digitized a variety of analog processes and thereby represent a much broader umbrella of Organizations not necessarily located in the Bay Area, including Peloton's fitness offerings, Carvana's auto sales process And mortgage companies like better.com.

Speaker 1

Likewise, the venture capital slowdown is now impacting companies across Many industries and geographies consistent with this broader scope. Conversely, it's the largest tech companies that drive employment in our North Cal and Seattle markets, And they are more insulated from capital market fluctuations given their growth opportunities and extraordinary financial strength. Rounding out the overall employment picture in Northern California, we continue to see a recovery of jobs that were eliminated during the pandemic. COVID related regulations were so stringent that much of the local service economy workforce had to be fundamentally rebuilt. For example, The Essex markets added 420,000 relatively low paying jobs on a trailing 3 month basis, including a 20% to 25% increase in the leisure and hospitality sector, which supports returning tech workers And their demand for services.

Speaker 1

Our commentary usually focuses on high paying jobs, but The strong demand for housing is supported by apartment affordability in our Northern California markets, which has improved sharply relative to long term averages, reflecting a higher growth rate for median incomes relative to median rents. From a historical perspective, these markets screen affordable for the first time in the last decade And rental housing is significantly more affordable versus homeownership. The value of the median price home in California is up about 13% year over year and with higher mortgage interest rates, apartments are clearly the more affordable option. We estimate that it is now over 2 times more expensive to buy than rent in the Essex markets. Affordability trends will be impacted by the apartment supply picture of moderating deliveries in the second half of 2022 and a further decline expected in 2023.

Speaker 1

Sharply lower rents in Northern California during the pandemic Production levels of for sale housing is also muted on the West Coast With only about 0.4% of existing stock being built annually and production is difficult to increase given zoning restrictions and land availability. Looking ahead, we recognize that the Federal Reserve is working to fight inflation, which often leads to a recession. Our experience indicates that no two recessions are alike and clearly the current situation is unique given West Coast remains in a recovery mode from the pandemic. Given this backdrop, we believe that the following factors will help moderate the impact 2, the West Coast rental markets in the event that economic conditions deteriorate later this year. First, large technology companies significantly accelerated hiring during the pandemic, largely because there were beneficiaries of the pandemic driven preference for Many newly hired employees were asked to work remotely until offices reopened, which is now occurring and is a key component of our recent market rent growth in Seattle and the Bay Area.

Speaker 1

2nd, we had extremely tight labor markets and Strong job growth on the West Coast, a significant portion of which relates to the recovery of jobs lost in the early part of the pandemic. Recovery of jobs, especially in leisure, hospitality and service sectors has been resilient and should continue for the foreseeable future. 3rd, the normal migration pattern from the West Coast includes workers approaching retirement who plan to lower their and use the equity in their homes as part of their retirement plan. We believe that most of these workers left during the pandemic given California's Extraordinary lockdowns and therefore it's likely that retirement related migration will be muted for at least a few more years. Finally, foreign immigration was significantly slowed throughout the pandemic.

Speaker 1

In recent months, new visas for foreign workers are increasing With the large tech companies being a primary beneficiary, restoring an important source of apartment demand. Before I turn the call over to Angela, let me quickly touch on apartment investment activity. The extraordinary Certainty and volatility in the financial markets and higher interest rates have disrupted the apartment transaction markets resulting in fewer closings Given diverging buyer and seller expectations, we are in a period of price discovery for apartment transactions and the absence of financial distress Means that buyers and sellers are not forced to transact. Therefore, we expect fewer apartment transactions for the foreseeable future. It's difficult to pinpoint cap rates in this environment, although limited recent activity indicates cap rates in the High 3% range to low 4% range.

Speaker 1

We have seen an increase in apartment development activity That was decimated in the pandemic driven by the strong rent recovery in suburban areas, which should lead to more preferred equity investments going forward. With that, I will turn the call over to Angela Kleinman.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike. First, I would like to express my appreciation for our operations and Support teams for delivering some of our highest level of quarterly same store revenue growth. All this while we continue to roll out our property collections Great job team and thank you. Today, I'll start with key operational highlights in our major regions, Discuss rent growth expectations for the remainder of 2022 and conclude with an update on the rollout of our transformational initiatives for the operating business. We are very pleased with our 2nd quarter performance.

Speaker 2

With strong demand fundamentals and modest supply described by Mike earlier, We maximize revenues by favoring rent growth rather than occupancy. This resulted in same property revenue growth 12.7% on a year over year basis and a 4.8% on a sequential basis, which are some of As we head into August, so far we are experiencing a normal leasing season with June July loss to for the same store portfolio at 9.7% and 10.3% respectively. Turning to regional highlights, starting with our Washington portfolio. This region generated a 20.7% year over year Net effective rent growth on new leases for the Q2, which was led by Eastside Seattle, where the majority of our portfolio is located. Seattle continues to benefit from strong job growth, which is driving leasing momentum.

Speaker 2

Our Seattle portfolio is well positioned And 9.7% loss to lease as of July. Onto Northern California, this region generated 17.5% year over year net effective rent growth on new leases for the 2nd quarter, which was led by Santa Clara County at 24%, primarily driven by the robust demand from large tech employers in Silicon Valley. Northern California has demonstrated some of the strongest job growth this year And despite the negative headlines on tech startups, we are not experiencing any softness in rent growth in July or in our Q3 renewals. We expect positive momentum to continue for Northern California with demand from return to office, which may be further accelerated by incremental job growth throughout the second half of the year. Loss to lease in this region continues to pick up and is 8.7% in July.

Speaker 2

Moving on to Southern California, which has been a strong performer with 22.4% year over year Net effective rent growth on new leases for the 2nd quarter. Healthy job growth has continued to drive incremental demand in Southern California, which has built upon the significant rent growth achieved last year and resulted in our highest level of loss to lease at 12.1% in July. Turning to our expectations for the remainder of 2022. As you may recall, we had anticipated a Seeing this deceleration show up on our new lease spreads on Page S-sixteen. However, as demonstrated by our current Performance and the increase to same property growth expectations for the year, our fundamentals remain strong.

Speaker 2

It is with this backdrop that we continue to advance our company wide implementation of our property collections operating model. By way of background, we have been transitioning from a dedicated team for each property to teams that cover a collection of around 9 to 12 properties, thereby transforming our business from a property centric to a customer centric operating model. As we have rolled out this model to our other regions, we've been able to replicate the improvements in cross selling from 15% to 23% Lastly, we have been making good progress co developing proprietary applications with partners from the REIT Ventures such as Funnel To enhance our technology platform, we execute approximately 60,000 transactions a year, including move ins, move outs and renewals, and we are focused on automating all manual tasks. Following full deployment of the funnel suite in late 2023, We anticipate this investment will be an important factor in the 200 basis points to 300 basis points of margin improvement We expect to achieve over the next few years. With that, I'll turn the call over to Barb PAC.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Angela. I'll start with A brief overview of our Q2 results, discuss changes to our full year guidance, followed by an update on investments and the balance sheet. We are pleased to report we achieved core FFO per share of $3.68 in the 2nd quarter. The results exceeded the high end of our updated guidance range published in June. Of the $0.10 beat to the midpoint, in June and $0.06 relates to lower property taxes, primarily from a combination of lower assessed values and millage rates at our Washington properties.

Speaker 3

For the full year, we are raising the midpoint of core FFO by $0.29 to $14.45 The revised midpoint equates to 15.7% year over year growth. The increase to our midpoint is primarily driven by better than operating fundamentals and an improved outlook on delinquency. As such, we are raising the midpoint of same property revenue growth by 70 basis points to 10.3% and NOI growth by 140 basis points to 13.5%. In addition, our full year guidance assumes a reduction in expense growth from 4% to 3.3% at the midpoint. Turning to delinquency.

Speaker 3

We are encouraged by the continued improvements we are seeing in our delinquency. For the quarter, net delinquency was 60 basis points of scheduled rents, a significant reduction from the Q1. This was a result of many efforts by our operations team, which led to a 20% reduction in gross delinquency as compared to the Q1. In addition, we received a higher level of government reimbursement in the Q2. Also worth noting, in late June, there were a couple of key events That are positive for the future.

Speaker 3

First, the State of California allocated an additional $1,900,000,000 in emergency rental assistance For existing applications after exhausting its initial five billing allocation. This gives us more visibility on the remaining funds to be allocated, especially as it relates to our $34,000,000 in outstanding applications. 2nd, on July 1, a California state law expired, which provides landlords additional rights to recapture delinquent units. Thus, outside of LA and Alameda Counties, where eviction protections remain in place, we would expect to see a gradual improvement in gross delinquencies over the coming quarters. Moving to our stock buyback and investment goals.

Speaker 3

In the Q2, we repurchased approximately 61,000,000 common stock at a significant discount to our internal NAV using free cash flow and excess proceeds from year to date transactions. As for our investment goals this year, we have a strong pipeline of accretive preferred equity deals and remain on track to achieve our goal of $50,000,000 to 150,000,000 Relative to cap rates in our markets, we are reducing our acquisition goals, which are outlined in the earnings release to focus on share repurchases instead. This is consistent with our disciplined approach to capital allocation, whereby we will shift capital to what the best use is given changing market dynamics. Lastly, I want to conclude my prepared remarks by highlighting the strength of the balance sheet. Over the past year, we have seen a continued reduction in leverage with our net debt to EBITDA ratio improving from 6.6 times at the depths of the pandemic to 5.8 times today.

Speaker 3

We are rapidly approaching our historical low for this ratio and believe we will see continued improvements in this metric over the next few quarters through growth in EBITDA. As it relates to upcoming capital needs, we are in an advantageous position. Our existing cash flow from operations covers our current dividend, all capital expenditures and development funding needs. As such, our only known funding needs relate to debt maturities, which are minimal, given we proactively took advantage of the low interest rate environment over the last few years to further strengthen the balance sheet. As a result, we have only $300,000,000 in debt maturing in mid-twenty 20 during in mid-twenty 24.

Speaker 3

This equates to less than 6% of our debt maturing annually for the next two and a half years. And while interest rates have increased on new debt, capital markets remain open and we have access to a variety of secured and unsecured debt sources. This affords us strong financial flexibility, which will enable us to be opportunistic as it relates to these upcoming maturities. With over $1,300,000,000 in liquidity, we are well positioned. I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. My first question is focused on Hybrid working, Mike, you said early on that return to work, but more hybrid working would benefit the company and clearly it is. I guess, what is some of the latest comments you're hearing? Or what are you hearing from the tech firms in your market on hybrid versus At this point thinking about going remote fully, obviously there's an article out today about one company going remote.

Speaker 4

Like what

Speaker 1

Now pretty much committed to hybrid working model and they're trying to figure out what that means And some of the issues are being confronted that I think are embedded in that. So I think that everyone's having trouble and I would include us in that In this case, people like hybrid, the hybrid model and they want to stick with the hybrid model. And so now it's up to the companies to try to figure out what they need to do to modify their offices To accommodate that model and notably Amazon paused some of the work they're doing in Bellevue To take another look at the office format, and so I think you're going to see more of that activity going forward.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you. And then appreciate the charts on The more detailed charts in this up on tech openings open positions, I should say, in your markets, how do you track this data?

Speaker 1

We have a data analytics team that's run by Paul Morgan. And so they scrape that data Off the various websites and then categorize it by what's in our markets versus other parts of the U. S. And we've been doing this for, I'd say, what's the better part of 10 years now? And so it definitely tells the story.

Speaker 1

So our data analytics team basically is responsible for that data.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks. Can I just ask, can you say which markets you're seeing the most openings versus, I guess, ones towards the bottom?

Speaker 1

We are seeing the tech markets are continuing to lead in terms of those openings. So And that is not surprising. I think some of the details in those top 10 texts, I think it's interesting that both Google or Alphabet and Apple have hit a new high in job openings, believe it or not, even though I made the broader comment that of the top 10 tech companies, they're off a little bit from their high. But still, the number of jobs I have Open is pretty extraordinary given the backdrop of what we've seen over the last several years. So we're seeing a lot of strength there Ongoing and almost as if all this economic turbulence wasn't such a big deal.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nick Joseph with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Maybe just on capital allocation, you talked about the share repurchases. So curious, just given the transaction market and how historically you've sold assets To fund share repurchases, kind of the appetite today and how you think about funding additional buybacks?

Speaker 3

Hi, Nick. It's Barb. Yes, that has been our strategy historically. In the Q2, we did have excess cash flow, so we used that to buy back the stock. Going forward, though, we would look to sell assets to buy back the stock.

Speaker 3

And so we could do that. We would like If we have an asset in contract, we might buy it back a little earlier than the contract than the sale. But for the most part,

Speaker 1

Thanks. And then maybe just on operations, in terms of the blended rent growth that decelerated a bit in July from The Q2, I'm wondering how you kind of marry that with the strength in the chart on Northern California and Seattle and the acceleration of the rent growth that you're

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi, it's Angela here. It's a good question. What we are expecting is the normal seasonality to play out. Having said that, we do have Headwinds from tougher year over year comps that I described earlier.

Speaker 2

And just to give you a little more color, Last year, in the first half, our blended lease rates was negative, was negative 4%. In the second half, it surged to about 13.25%. So that's the tough year over year comp. And what we're seeing is with the Strength in Northern California is that it's a key reason for the shift of Expecting SoCal to outperform in the first half and now in the second half, we're expecting Seattle and North Cal to lead our growth

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chandni Luthra with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Could you talk about your tenant composition a little bit, please? What portion of your tenants, what mix is employed by Big Tech versus say other industries? And how has That composition changed during the pandemic or more recently?

Speaker 1

Yes. This is Mike, and that's another great question. Thank you. We have a variety of price points in our So we cover, I'd say, from the B- to the A plus category. And therefore, our tenant base is a reflection of the broader economy.

Speaker 1

And so unless we have in a few buildings that are adjacent very close to the tech companies where we could have 90 plus percent The tenants working in the tech industry, for the most part, we're much broader than that. And Again, we reflect the broader economy, which includes policemen, firemen, teachers, all the hospitality and restaurant workers, etcetera. And it has not changed a lot.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank you for that. And then As we think about 2023, some of your peers today talked about embedded rent growth. Could you perhaps give us more Color in terms of given the rent roll that's already priced in right now, how should we think about The earn in going into 2023.

Speaker 2

Hi, it's Angela here. Another good question. And the embedded Earnings for 2023 is really going to be a function of the seasonality curve. And at this point, We are we have one of the strongest loss leads in the company's history at 10.3%, and it continues to grow because we have not yet peaked. And you add to that the tailwind from the job growth and modest supply, we feel good about our position.

Speaker 2

But to try to speculate at this point It's probably not going to be all that helpful because 3rd quarter is when we tend to have the most transactions And so it's the most active quarter. And so once we see how that plays out, we'll be able to provide better visibility to the actual And so we plan to have a more in-depth discussion on that topic on our October call.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Pawlowski Dee with Green Street, please proceed with your question.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Just one question for me. Adam, curious Your thoughts on the level of distress you're seeing in the broader preferred equity and mezzanine lending markets, on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being the most dislocated, Where are we on that barometer today?

Speaker 7

John, I would put us at a one. We're seeing very little distress On the press side, we are seeing some opportunities where bridge lenders were able to Loan on deals that are in lease up, we've seen a definite pullback in that. So we're seeing opportunities for us to come in, In those types of cases, but no, very I'd say no distressed at this point. To be clear, I'm not talking about your specific book, but just in terms of the broader market deals that are coming your way. So other people being in distress, not ethics.

Speaker 7

Understood. Yes, I know. It's the same answer. We're not seeing any answer. Okay.

Speaker 7

Thank you for your time.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Yes, thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about the renewals that you're sending out, I guess, at this point For August or what you sent out for August, September and perhaps October? And can you talk about what's embedded in the full year guidance for the second half in terms of overall blended spreads. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure, happy to. It's Angela here. I'll talk about renewals and I'll I'll turn it over to Barb to talk about guidance. In terms of our Q3 renewals, we're coming in at close to 10%, And it's a pretty tight band within all our key markets. Seattle leading the pack around 11, Northern California in the 10 range and

Speaker 3

And then Steve, as it relates to guidance, And as what Angela said earlier, the first half of the year, we had much easier comps. But given the surge in rents we saw last year, We have much more difficult comps in the second half of the year, which on new leases we're assuming in the second half of the year 7% New lease growth, it was 15% in the first half of the year, so a significant reduction just because of the comp issue.

Speaker 8

Great. That's very helpful. Thanks. And then just in terms of the bad debt, I know this is bouncing around quite a bit, based on what you're getting back from the government. And it sounds like you might get a little bit more in the second half, but how would you sort of think the second half shapes up in terms of the bad debt figure?

Speaker 3

Yes. So our revised guidance assumes 1.5% for the full year as a percent of our scheduled rent. That's how we've been talking about it since the start of the pandemic. And that we assume the first half and the second half are about the same now. Previously, we had assumed a work And half, but now we've pulled that up now.

Speaker 3

And that's really a function of the $1,900,000,000 in new emergency rental assistance that the state has allocated. It does give us more visibility on continued emergency rental assistance in the back half of the year that we were uncertain about going into this quarter. And then the other thing is we do have we have seen improvements in our gross delinquency. They have started to come down. In June, they fell.

Speaker 3

July, they fell. And so we do expect a continuing moderation in the growth delinquency line, which gets us to the improved outlook on delinquency in the back half of the year.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Malkin with Capital One. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Hey, everyone. Good morning to you. First question, I guess, capital allocation or external growth kind of thought here, but you don't really have a Land Bank development pipeline anymore. I think your last one finished leasing up this quarter. Just curious as your plans, what you see maybe through the end of the year for potential growth Given that, I mean, really, you've been mainly an acquirer.

Speaker 9

So What are your priorities? I know you talked about share repurchases, but are JVs an option? Are you looking at, Again, just dispositions to fund all those things and how do you plan on sourcing growth Yes, just outside of the organic picture over the next several quarters.

Speaker 7

Hi, Neil. This is Adam. So there was a lot to that question, but just kind of starting at the beginning. Historically, we haven't really been a land banking shop. We tend to when we develop, we tend to go after shovel ready deals.

Speaker 7

We do have a couple of pre entitlement deals that are in the pipeline and potentially would build further out. Other than that though, we've seen the most opportunity in our press book and Especially more recently, we've seen quite a bit of opportunity. As for acquisitions, we're always in the market, but Highly dependent on where our cost of capital is and matching funds. We will we have seen Some opportunities on the development side where we can joint venture and usually couple that with a preferred equity Peace as well. And so we're highly focused on turning those over as well.

Speaker 7

So lots of potential, but On the development side, on the direct development side today, we're seeing cap rates probably in the mid-4s and to us that's just not That's not enough spread to adjust for the risk associated with costs and the other challenges associated with development.

Speaker 9

Yes. Okay. Thanks for that. And then for Angela, you guys have more recently started talking about the at least externally. The sort of operating enhancements, operating model expense types of enhancements about potting and being more efficient, increasing the I just wonder if you could maybe kind of put that in perspective, talk about that a little bit more and then specifically And wage pressure you're seeing just given the high cost of living there.

Speaker 9

And then you talked about, again, improving the resident experience by potentially having units that have no people on-site. And I guess, how does that improve in the So if you can just walk through all those, that'd be great.

Speaker 2

Sure. Happy to. So you Brought up a couple of points. I'll try to hit all of them. If I missed anything, please chime in.

Speaker 2

So in terms of wage pressure, I mean, we're experiencing that just like everybody else. However, I think you could see from our controllable expenses, especially in the admin line item, We've been able to find offsets and so have been able to manage through that. And it's primarily because of how We have transformed our operating business model to this, I think you call it time, by cost collection, because that's improved inefficiency. So ultimately, what it means is It's allowing our people to take less time to get the task that they used to do. From a customer perspective though, first of all, We've been contactless since COVID.

Speaker 2

So it's effectively no change for them in how they interact with us. But As far as availability is concerned, we have although the office is not open, We do have by appointment available and

Speaker 5

our

Speaker 2

customers that access the regular or however they want, they can reach us via different, Whether it's online or 800 numbers, you can make an appointment, you can come see us and every asset collection has a hub Well, it is focused there. So sometimes, it's an immediate thing. They will get in the car and drive to a hub nearby. And so once again, that has not been an issue either. And when we look at our customer satisfaction survey, it actually has It's better than pre COVID.

Speaker 9

Okay. Yes. So basically, it sounds like just given the proximity of deposits, A maintenance issue, power, I don't know, leak issue, payment, Whatever amenity issue could be a few minute drive away essentially is what you're saying.

Speaker 2

Well, let me just Clarify something, the maintenance team is on-site. And so they are responding at the time rate to any customer service request.

Speaker 9

Okay. I'm sorry. Yes, I guess I was just confused because a lot other peers have mentioned like People list buildings in terms of like servicing, but I guess that doesn't apply to maintenance is what you're saying?

Speaker 2

Yes. So what we're talking about is, you know, bookkeeping, administration, bookkeeping, those type of activities, But the maintenance is separate.

Speaker 9

Got it. Okay. No, thank you for that. I appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rich Anderson with SMBC, please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning. Great quarter. So I'm going to go back to Angela on the earning question. I understand you want to keep that maybe tight to the vest.

Speaker 5

But if you're providing guidance, you're implying you have some guidance about the 3rd Quarter in terms of leasing activity. So that would suggest while you don't know what's going to happen then, you would have An assumption of what's going to happen again. And based on that assumption, do you would you admit that you're having an earning Number in mind, but you just don't want to you think it's just premature to share, is that a fair statement?

Speaker 2

Now it's a little bit more true than that. I mean, it's speculative, Right. Because right now, what we're saying is with 10.2% loss lease, that's higher than our typical loss lease in the past. Now normal seasonality means that, that lost lease will start to decline over time. What I Don't know and that's an honest statement.

Speaker 2

I don't know the rate of that decline or the steepness of that curve. All I can point to is from what we're seeing right now, the curve looks good. Having said that, There is a broad economy out there and we will need to see how that plays out.

Operator

You have a better sense.

Speaker 1

Yes. Hey, Rich, I have my blue mood ring on now. I just want to point that out. But One additional comment, I think what Angela is saying is seasonality implies that rents peak in July. We don't know if rents are going And so that inflection point once we see that inflection point, we have better visibility going forward about what's going to happen for the rest of the year.

Speaker 1

So Again, it's really a key time in terms of trying to determine where this is Potentially, rents could keep going up or it could follow the normal seasonality and we reach a peak in July and we start You're going downhill for the rest of the year. But you're right, Barb has built in an assumption into the guidance. Barbara, you want to just comment on that just to reiterate it?

Speaker 3

Well, like I said earlier, we do assume rent growth Year over year moderates in the second half of the year because of the more difficult comps. And as Angela mentioned, we've assumed a normal seasonal curve. So we will peak at the end of July, like Mike said. So that is what's built into the guidance, but we do feel good about the tailwinds That are in front of us or behind us from where we are today.

Speaker 5

Okay. Fair enough. And then, the second question is looking at, Let's see, S-sixteen, I believe, or maybe not, S-seventeen, the rent growth forecast. Last quarter, Northern California was the leader. All markets regions have grown, but Northern California by a lesser amount than the others.

Speaker 5

Now in the Q2, actually the laggard wants the leader, even though 10.5% is nothing to sneeze at. So I'm just curious, You talked about tech layoffs that everyone's talking about. Is that intermingled in this forecast where Southern California and Seattle have leaped Northern California, again, all growing. So I'm not really I don't mean to throw cold water on it, but Northern California is no longer the leader.

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi, Angela. Thanks for acknowledging that these are pretty darn strong numbers across the board. But just to give you a little more background, These the revised forecast is really a reflection of how we perform in the first half. And because the first half was so strong in Southern California and in Seattle, that's the driver To the change in order, so when we look at the second half, so the second half, let's say, about 7% for the portfolio, We are seeing that Seattle and Northern California will be the path in a second.

Speaker 5

Southern California, right? Seattle and Southern California?

Speaker 2

No, no. Seattle and Northern California in the second half.

Speaker 5

I see. I see what you're saying. Okay. Okay.

Speaker 2

Yes. So that 11.1% is 15% in the first half, which is big, and that's driven by SoCal in Seattle and 7% approximately in the second half and that 7% average will be driven by Northern California and Seattle, higher than 7% and of course, Southern California lower than 7% to average.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Speaker 1

And maybe one other final piece, Rich, and that is that Oakland is obviously lagging in the Northern California recovery as well. Oakland has downtown Oakland has been Slow to recover and it's got quite a bit of development deliveries that are coming there and that's the part that's holding them back.

Speaker 5

Yes, good point. Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Just a couple on back rents. So first, how much of the back rents do you guys Anticipate receiving from the government or California programs. And then how much do you think you'll have to go directly to the tenants to collect?

Speaker 10

I know you guys Discuss a little bit about the additional government funds to be allocated. So I was wondering about how much more to go to the tenants to collect?

Speaker 3

Hi, this is Barb. We have $34,000,000 in open applications right now. And then Of our $78,000,000 in cumulative delinquency, so that's how you would compare those 2, of which So the $34,000,000 we've assumed some of that will occur this year. We don't know how quickly they're going to disperse those funds. We've assumed about 50% of that we get This year in our guidance.

Speaker 3

It's not all same store though either, so keep that in mind. That's total for the whole portfolio. And then the other Piece that we have to go after the tenants, we already started that process. We have various means we can do to hurt their credit or ding their credit, Go after them in small claims court in order to try to recoup our back rent, and we're actively doing what we can and abiding by the laws, obviously. And LA Alameda is where we're probably the most restricted, but outside of that, we have a lot of A lot more ability to go after the tenants.

Speaker 10

That's helpful. Thank you. And then just a follow-up on that. What percent of the residents that owe the back rents, are no longer within the Essex properties versus tenants that are

Speaker 3

Jen, I think it's roughly fifty-fifty at this point. The $34,000,000 in open applications Does relate bulk of that relates to our current residents. Very little of that is for past residents.

Speaker 10

All right. Very helpful. That's all for me. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Hey, everyone. I'm not sure if you track this or not, But do you track move outs because of job loss? And has there been any sort of change in that statistic if you do?

Speaker 1

We do track new jobs or job transfers and But not job losses exactly per se and that number new job or job transfer is roughly 15.7% in our portfolio versus, let's say, which is down a little bit from the last couple of

Speaker 5

months. We don't actually

Speaker 1

track how many job losses how many of these people actually lost their job, we just track jobs in general.

Speaker 5

Okay. Got it.

Speaker 11

It was worth a shot. And then I guess on the other side, on the move in data, has there been data that suggests that Tech workers coming back are indeed what's driving a lot of this demand?

Speaker 1

Not just tech workers, certainly tech workers and the return to office people, but more broadly, we mentioned In the script that there are an awful lot of hospitality, leisure jobs and all the service jobs that are coming back as we fundamentally rebuilt when California Shut everything down and many of them left the state. So, it's really both components. And again, our portfolio is not Comprised mostly of tech workers. It is a it's intended to be a broad overview of the broader economy. So we don't target tech workers

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt Schmidt with KeyBanc, please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. Angela, you highlighted the strength in the lost lease being above that 10 And that market rents are still growing at this point. But the portfolio has seen new lease rates decelerate much more quickly than some of your peers. And I certainly understand the difficult comps piece and some of the crosscurrents in the economy that are kind of blurring the next couple of months perhaps.

Speaker 4

But I'm really trying to understand with That backdrop of strong job growth, growing market rent still through July and the healthy loss to lease in place, why do we get to 7% new lease rate growth versus the 14% I think you achieved in July for the back half of the year. Can you just put some additional detail in there, please?

Speaker 2

Yes, happy to. I think, Yuma, We try to provide a baseline and so we don't tend to say forecast a recession or excessive growth, for example. Now I do want to point you to the backdrop of the second half of last year. We grew our blended lease rates with 13.25 percent and so the new lease rates were much higher. And so it truly is a function of a And to your point, is it possible that we perform better because of the fundamentals?

Speaker 2

Certainly, that's on the table.

Speaker 4

And what percent of the rent roll has been addressed or what percent do you have strong visibility into at this point for the year?

Speaker 2

The end of the rental?

Speaker 1

Certainly the renewal side, We have good visibility on it. It's going to be somewhere in the high single digit range. It's the new lease rate that We don't know, obviously, given all the turmoil in the financial markets, etcetera. So again, as I think Angela mentioned earlier, So far, we're following a normal seasonal pattern, but typically that changes. The weaker portion of the year begins in July and through the end of the year.

Speaker 1

We just don't know what that inflection point is going to look like or when we're going to attain it. And so it's a little bit difficult for us to Predict the rest of the year given that we don't know where that peak in rents is this year.

Speaker 4

Sure. No, I guess, I was more interested in if 75% of the leases have been addressed either signed or committed to at this point or 85%, whatever that number is. Anyway, maybe Mike on capital allocation, admittedly the headlines haven't helped you guys given your footprint, But you guys have certainly executed 3 guidance increases through the year, and you stepped in and bought back stock as you historically have When you trade at a wide enough discount NAV, but I guess if the market isn't willing to ascribe the value that you see in the portfolio versus the private market aside from Just selling assets and buying back a higher volume of shares, are there any other steps, that you and the Board or looking to further close that value gap?

Speaker 1

Well, I don't think so. I mean, Broader strategic issues are not things that you would implement quickly. They are thoughtful processes and And just try to work through things. I think this is more tactical. We don't know what's going to happen in the broader economy going forward.

Speaker 1

And that point was very well made by the investors at NAREIT certainly recently. So given that backdrop, we're going to Continue to lean toward a relatively conservative approach to capital allocation and that's the one that Barb was outlining before And Adam too. And maybe what I would add to what Adam said that trying to focus on the preferred equity book will be something that we're Pretty focused on the remainder of the year. But in terms of broader Choices, when you look at where the stock price is trading and we do our own fundamental research on the value of the company on a per share basis. And when you look at those numbers, it's not a time that we would be aggressively Growing the company, let's say, just because the pieces are not as compelling as they have been certainly at different points of time.

Speaker 1

So I think it's a time to Just to execute, you take what the market gives us and makes thoughtful decisions and that's what we've done. That's what we've been Going to continue to do.

Speaker 4

Thanks for the comments.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 12

Hey guys, thanks for the time I think just a quick one for me. I think you gave some kind of good color on kind of where you see cap rates, kind of high 3% to low 4% range. Wondering, I guess, kind of how much wider is that, or how much of that kind of changed from maybe the all time types that you saw, be it 3, 6 months ago? And then you also kind of mentioned about price discovery, right? And so kind of wondering what is that gap now, I guess, that bid ask spread, right, or that gap kind of between That's kind of causing kind of price discovery, right?

Speaker 12

And are you going to causing limited transactions at this point?

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi, Adam. This is Adam. To go cover the back half of the question first. So transaction volume has actually been fairly consistent.

Speaker 7

Over the recent probably month to 6 weeks Depending on the market, depending on vintage, I'd say for our core, core plus and within our kind of core markets, there's probably a 25 50 basis point bid ask spread between what where sellers are looking and buyers are willing. But again, that's not to be said That deals aren't happening because there are still transactions occurring in the market. Can you restate the first part of the question?

Speaker 12

Yes. Just kind of how much wider that high 3% to low 4% range for cap rates, how much wider is that kind of maybe the all time tights of 3 to 6 months ago.

Speaker 7

Yes. So yes, we don't know where cap rates are going. But based on today, what we're seeing today, we're seeing them in that kind of high 3s to low 4s. I might be

Speaker 1

That's roughly 50 basis points higher than what we talked about. Yes.

Speaker 7

They were in Okay. Yes. So they are in the mid-3s, what we talked about a few quarters ago. So yes, they're up, I would say, 50 basis points is probably on average.

Speaker 12

Got That's really helpful guys. Thanks so much. Appreciate the time.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand the call back to management for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, operator. We would like to thank everyone for joining the call today. We feel good about our results And we feel like we may have a little bit of wind to our back, so that's obviously great to see. And we look forward to seeing many of you in the near future.

Speaker 1

Thank you and good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful

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Earnings Conference Call
Essex Property Trust Q2 2022
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