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S&P 500   4,967.23
DOW   37,986.40
QQQ   414.65
How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 4/19/2024
Stock market today: Tumbling tech stocks drag Wall Street to the finish line of another losing week
American Express profits jump 34%, helped by jump in new customers, higher spending
American Express, Fifth Third rise; Netflix, PPG Industries fall, Friday, 4/19/2024
Intuitive Surgical Stock Can Trend Much Higher This Year 
3 Magnificent Seven Stocks Outperforming the Rest
Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks With RSIs That Scream Oversold
S&P 500   4,967.23
DOW   37,986.40
QQQ   414.65
How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 4/19/2024
Stock market today: Tumbling tech stocks drag Wall Street to the finish line of another losing week
American Express profits jump 34%, helped by jump in new customers, higher spending
American Express, Fifth Third rise; Netflix, PPG Industries fall, Friday, 4/19/2024
Intuitive Surgical Stock Can Trend Much Higher This Year 
3 Magnificent Seven Stocks Outperforming the Rest
Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks With RSIs That Scream Oversold
S&P 500   4,967.23
DOW   37,986.40
QQQ   414.65
How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 4/19/2024
Stock market today: Tumbling tech stocks drag Wall Street to the finish line of another losing week
American Express profits jump 34%, helped by jump in new customers, higher spending
American Express, Fifth Third rise; Netflix, PPG Industries fall, Friday, 4/19/2024
Intuitive Surgical Stock Can Trend Much Higher This Year 
3 Magnificent Seven Stocks Outperforming the Rest
Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks With RSIs That Scream Oversold

J. M. Smucker Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript


Listen to Conference Call View Latest SEC 10-K Filing View Latest SEC 10-Q Filing

Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Aaron Broholm
    Vice President, Investor Relations
  • Tucker Marshall
    Chief Financial Officer
  • Mark Smucker
    Chief Executive Officer and President

Presentation

Operator

Good morning and welcome to The J.M. Smucker Company's Fiscal 2023 First Quarter Earnings Question-and-Answer Session. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the conference call over to Aaron Broholm, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Aaron Broholm
Vice President, Investor Relations at J. M. Smucker

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, and thank you for joining our fiscal 2023 first quarter earnings question-and-answer session. I hope everyone has had a chance to review our results as detailed in this morning's press release and management's prepared remarks, which are available on our corporate website at jmsmucker.com. We will also post an audio replay of this call at the conclusion of this morning's Q&A session.

During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we use non-GAAP results to evaluate performance internally. I encourage you to read the full disclosure concerning forward-looking statements and details on our non-GAAP measures in this morning's press release.

Participating on this call are Mark Smucker, Chair of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer.

We will now open up the call for questions. Operator, please queue up the first question.

Questions and Answers

Operator

Thank you. Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays. Your line is now live.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst at Barclays

Great. Good morning. Thank you for the question.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Good morning, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst at Barclays

Good morning. You mentioned some favorability in the commodity side for the full year versus our expectations when you provided guidance last quarter. The fact that you were able to raise the low end of your full-year gross margin guidance as a result suggested some of the benefit is expected to flow through, so maybe in contrast to what is kind of a prevailing concern among investors in the overall food space, that margin recovery, it will essentially be promoted away under pressure from customers and others. So I was hoping you could talk a little bit about your view on your margin progression as cost rollover and if you still expect about a 15% benefit from price for the full year. Thanks so much.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Andrew, good morning. We are continuing to experience cost inflation that is having a mid to high-teens impact on our cost of products goods sold. That is not a change from what we said in our initial outlook for this fiscal year. There are two areas that we continue to assess. One is, the Jif impact is coming in better than anticipated, so that has supported our margin uplift from the bottom end of the range. And two, as we continue to manage cost within our overall infrastructure to the extent that we are able to in this environment, as you've noted, we still anticipate 15 points of pricing for the full fiscal year. There is not a material change to that from our original guidance. And again, what we are carrying in from fiscal '22 is about mid-single digits and actions that we've taken for the full benefit of fiscal '23 is high-single digits as well on the pricing front.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst at Barclays

Got it. Thank you. And then, just -- I guess, as a quick follow-up, I noticed in the prepared remarks, you mentioned when it's in the pet food space, the sort of the concept of value, a number of times, and I guess I just wanted to get a sense from you on sort of what you're seeing on that front and maybe in past times of sort of macroeconomic impacts on the consumer, what you've seen with respect to any trade down in pet? I guess I was under the impression that the growth obviously in the higher end, we're still pretty strong and consumers tend not to mess around with their pet food that often. So any thoughts and any comments there would be helpful. Thank you.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Sure, Andrew, it's Mark. When you think about just taking a real quick step back on our total portfolio, we participate, of course, in all segments of our categories. And that includes the entire value spectrum, if you will, and pet is no different. And so, if you think about Milk-Bone and how Milk-Bone has outpaced the pet snacks segment, particularly in this last quarter and it actually gained share. That is driven both by some of the premiumization, the innovation that we've launched, but also just by base Milk-Bone which is quite frankly a very affordable snack option for pets.

And likewise with Meow Mix having also taken the number one spot in cat also meets the value equation for many consumers. So I think strategically we want to continue to play across that spectrum in our categories and make sure that we're providing consumers with options.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Ken Goldman from JPMorgan. Your line is now live.

Anoori Naughton
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Hi, this is Anoori on for Ken. Good morning.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Aaron Broholm
Vice President, Investor Relations at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Anoori Naughton
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Good morning. I wanted to ask about coffee. So, could you provide a little bit more color on why you're reducing your expectations for growth for the year. And then, in the prepared remarks, you talked about volumes improving from here. So, what are you seeing that gives you confidence that they will and how much of that is driven by competitor actions versus things that are in your control like higher marketing and promotional spending? Thank you.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Anoori, it's Mark. I'll start and Tucker may add. But first of all, we're very pleased with our coffee performance. Again, it goes back to the comments I just made around Andrew's question. We lead, so we did lead in taking price and that helped drive our dollar growth, and our dollar shares continue to be very strong across the coffee category. And although we did anticipate some elasticity in the quarter, those were largely as expected as we're now seeing our competitors follow in pricing.

And so, as we move forward, we would continue to monitor very closely consumer behavior, but we're encouraged by the fact that over 70% of cups consumed are still consumed at home. So, we still feel very good about our total coffee business and we will continue to invest in it. We also noted the reinvestment in Folgers with the new advertising campaign to reinvigorate that brand as well. So, all signs are continuing to support the business and drive balanced growth.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Your line is now live.

Peter Galbo
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Peter Galbo
Analyst at Bank of America

Mark, maybe just to follow-up on Andrew's question around pet food. I know you gave some comments on both treats and cat food. It seems like dog, actually we had a pretty solid quarter I think up 18%. So if you can just comment there. I know you haven't put in the full brand refresh on Nutrish at this point, but just what you saw in dog specifically in the quarter in terms of trade down and what you're expecting kind of over the balance of the year there? Thanks.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Sure, Peter. Thanks a lot. So, in dog food, I think what you're seeing is obviously a very good quarter overall on dog food, and that does include Nutrish and Kibbles N Bits. And part of that is really our efforts to stabilize our dog food portfolio, which we've talked that our priorities, first and foremost, snacks and cat, but then stabilizing dog food has been a priority that includes optimizing our offerings and making sure that we have a narrower but clearer set of offerings for the consumer, so a lot of that is now in market. There have also been a lot of supply disruptions across the entire dog food industry and that is not unique to Smucker, and part of our results there have been benefiting from some of that supply disruption in terms of how we've been able to manage through and ensure that we're meeting demand.

Peter Galbo
Analyst at Bank of America

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks, Mark. And then, Tucker, just I've gotten a couple of questions on this morning, but just wanted to understand the moving pieces on Jif. There was a pretty meaningful insurance recovery in the quarter. I believe that was contemplated already in the prior $0.90 guide that you would given but just wanted to clarify that and then just on the move from I guess $0.90 to $0.80, it seems like things have come back faster.

I think there were $0.65 impact in the first quarter, so maybe a little bit still into 2Q, but just anything else you can help us to understand on the second quarter as it relates to Jif and then maybe just the quarter overall. Thanks.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Yeah, absolutely. So, as you know, we came into the fiscal year with the $0.90 impact associated with the Jif peanut butter recall. That estimate is now $0.80. We did have the opportunity to come back faster both from a manufacturing standpoint and then beginning to refill the shelves at the respective retailers. And so, we were able to see benefit which enabled us to reduce from $0.90 to $0.80. To your point, we did contemplate in the estimate the anticipated insurance recovery. Folks may be reading the income statement classification of where that recovery resides, but it was always contemplated in the estimate. To your point, we had a $0.65 impact in Q1. Therefore, we have about $0.15 left to go in Q2 and a little bit into Q3, but again, nothing material beyond the first quarter.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Chris Growe from Stifel. Your line is now live.

Chris Growe
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Hi, good morning.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Chris Growe
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Hi. I just wanted to follow up quickly on that just discussion and just to be clear on the first quarter. Do you have insurance recovery that is incorporated into the that $0.65 figure, and is there more insurance recovery to come throughout the year? Just want to make sure we get a sense of how that's going to play out in the coming quarters.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Chris, the $0.65 impact in the quarter did have the anticipated insurance recovery. There is still a $0.15 exposure in Q2 and Q3.

Chris Growe
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Okay. No further insurance recoveries thus, is that fair to say?

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Correct. We have factored in what we believe is the appropriate factor for the insurance recovery and our total $0.80 estimate, again, the predominance that came through in Q1. And I just acknowledge to you that the impact was against the $0.65.

Chris Growe
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Okay. That makes sense. Thank you. And then I just had a question on Uncrustables. And I think you do expect the growth to pick up throughout the quarter, you expect it to improve as we go through the year. In fact, it's picked up quite dramatically. Do you have the kind of supply chain challenges there mostly out of the way, and from here, it's just a matter of continuing to grow with the brand we grow, and then I know you have Longmont capacity coming online later this year. Should that help accelerate the growth even further from what we're seeing today?

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Chris, it's Mark. Yes, we're still very bullish on Uncrustables. And everything related to it in terms of production remains on track. We're finishing the Longmont expansion, that's the Denver facility, and we're well underway in construction at the McCalla, which is Alabama facility. And so all of that, remember, McCalla is not going to come online for a couple of years, but all of the efficiency improvements that we've seen in Kentucky, as well as Longmont are going to support us meeting demand. So, although we are not quite meeting demand, in other words, supply is not quite caught up with demand, all of the work on production is intended to do so over time. And we do expect that we have, again, significant runway and the ability to get that brand to a $1 billion over time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse. Your line is now live.

Robert Moskow
Analyst at Credit Suisse Group

Hey. A couple of questions. I want to make sure I understand the assumptions for profit growth for the rest of the year. From what I can tell, you're assuming kind of flattish operating profit, maybe even down a little bit for the next few quarters. And I just want to make sure I'm doing the math right. Is that true? But especially given first quarter, it looks like your profit would have been well ahead of last year, ex the Jif recall, and then a quick follow-up.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Rob, good morning. We brought the guidance range at the midpoint up $0.35. About $0.10 of that is coming from volume mix, about $0.15 of that is coming from cost of products sold, but then embedded in that first $0.25 is the $0.10 benefit from the Jif estimate going from $0.90 to $0.80, and then you've got about $0.10 of SG&A that comprises your $0.35.

In terms of the flows as you think about for the rest of the year, maybe we can follow up with that offline and help you with your flows, but that is how we're seeing the earnings construction from going from $805 million [Phonetic] at midpoint to currently $840 million [Phonetic]. And then, I would just lastly acknowledge that as we continue to see the pet momentum continue through the balance of the year as we continue to see consumer momentum inclusive of Jif recovery and the international Away From Home momentum and then that's being partially offset by coffee topline momentum. So just to give you a sense of how we're thinking about both bottom line and top line.

Robert Moskow
Analyst at Credit Suisse Group

Okay. And maybe more specific then. In the retail consumer foods segment, your profit was down about $65 million versus year ago, but then 90 of that was the Jif recall. So, is this division's profit well ahead -- tracking well ahead of a year ago, ex the recall, and therefore, should we assume higher growth commensurate with that in this division for the rest of the year?

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Yes, the profit growth should pick up on a sequential basis in the second, third and fourth quarters as it gets beyond the first quarter impact associated with the Jif peanut butter recall.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Jason English from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now live.

Jason English
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Hey. Good morning, folks. Two quick questions. So, since you last reported, you guys filed your K in there. It revealed that your advertising spend was down around 21% last year. Given that you're over-delivering so far, why not take some of the over-delivery and reinvest back into advertising?

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Yeah. Why don't I start just with our assumption around marketing spend for the fiscal year. So, we did experience some SG&A favorability in the first quarter associated with marketing. However, we remain committed to spending the dollars that we planned at the beginning of the year and are still maintaining our guidance of 5.5% of net sales spend against our brands. We believe it's important for the ongoing reinvestment and growth of those brands and overall health and profitability of the company.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Hey, Jason, it's Mark. I would just reinforce that we are committed to spending the dollars. And some of the dollars, they are going to flow through later in the year. And just keep in mind that because pricing is up and inflation has driven up top line to some degree, that would slightly mute the dollars as a percent of net sales, but rest assured that our commitment to continue to invest in our brands is solid and the efficiencies, in other words, the bang for our buck that we're getting by getting more efficient on some of our marketing spend is also helping deliver good results against brand investment.

Jason English
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Okay. Okay. And back to the question on coffee and why you expect volume to get better. I don't think I was -- I didn't walk away feeling like I had a lot of clarity on the answer there. So ask a more direct question, is it because you expect competitors to follow? Therefore, closing the price gaps and if that's the answer, are you seeing it happen already or is it because you are expecting to maybe feather in some promotions to dampen those price gaps. And if so, what's the timing and cadence of that?

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

It's more the former, it's more the fact that we are seeing competitors follow. We manage price through a number of levers that we are well aware of whether that's trade and what not, so we have, of course, our normal promotions planned through the holiday period. Those will continue to support the brand, but we do expect competitors to continue to follow our lead.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.

Pamela Kaufman
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Pamela Kaufman
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

So I just had a question on pricing and whether you've implemented all of your planned pricing actions for the year in the market or is there going to be further pricing that comes through? And if so, in which categories will there be incremental pricing?

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Pam, we generally have implemented a majority of our pricing, but we still are in an inflationary environment, so it remains to be seen if -- I would never use the word finished and you'll recall that when we do move price, we have been consistent in moving price both up and down depending on our delivered cost. Obviously it's been more up in the last year or so, but we do believe that we've taken a majority of it and we'll watch carefully as we consider whether or not there may be further pricing required in the coming quarters.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

And Pam, I would just acknowledge that. Our guidance reflects the pricing actions that we took in the spring timeframe in support of recovering the cost inflation in order to deliver our fiscal year.

Pamela Kaufman
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, thanks. That's helpful. And then, my second question is just an update on your M&A strategy. Given your comments earlier this year about your interest in potential acquisitions, where does this stand? Have you been evaluating any potential acquisition? Then, can you remind us what the criteria is and if that's changed at all?

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Sure. The criteria hasn't changed, and I'm happy to refresh our collective memory on that. The short answer to your question is, I always have lines in the water, constantly evaluating opportunities to come across our desk. But again, we want to invest in businesses and do it in a prudent way that will generate a good return. So, clearly that is one of our key priorities.

And as we've articulated over the last several quarters, we are interested in acquisitions that would add to our existing portfolio in our existing categories that would potentially round out our portfolio in coffee, potentially our portfolio in pet snacks would be of interest. We could be interested in more significant or meaningful acquisitions as well to the extent that we're looking at newer categories or categories that we don't participate in. We've tried to be clear that we would not enter a new category unless we had the ability to acquire a meaningful or leadership position in those categories. So, it's quite simply meaningful leadership positions or rounding out our existing portfolio.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Cody Ross from UBS. Your line is live.

Cody Ross
Analyst at UBS Group

Hi, there. Thank you for taking our questions.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Cody Ross
Analyst at UBS Group

I just wanted to touch a little bit on pet. Pet has seen nice acceleration here, organic sales in the mid teens. Did you have any benefit from inventory replenishment in the quarter stemming from your supply chain headwinds? And can you discuss what you're seeing from a market share perspective? Thanks.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

The answer to the first question is no. And the second part of your question, I'm sorry, Cody, was around market share. We've seen good share growth. Clearly, Milk-Bone and Meow Mix are again our areas of focus, very pleased with the results there, about a full share point on Milk-Bone and continued share growth on Meow Mix. So, really pleased again with the way our investments are playing out in those two segments. And then we spoke earlier just about dog food in our efforts there to stabilize that business.

Cody Ross
Analyst at UBS Group

Thank you for that. That's helpful. And then, I just want to go back to want to one of Tucker's comments earlier about your revised EPS guide. You mentioned that SG&A is adding about $0.10 to your higher EPS outlook. Can you just provide more details about what's different today in your SG&A outlook versus prior? Thank you.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

So, Cody, what's consistent is our reinvestment in the business of maintaining 5.5% of marketing spend as a percentage of net sales. So there is no change there. Rather what we're seeing in SG&A is just some favorability on the discretionary side that came through in the first quarter and how we want to continue that trend or trajectory through the balance of the year.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Alexia Howard from Bernstein. Your line is now live.

Alexia Howard
Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein

Good morning, everyone.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Good morning.

Alexia Howard
Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein

Okay. So, can I ask about retailer inventory levels? We've seen varying comments from different companies about whether the retailers have been holding safety stock and it needs to be run down or conversely, if service levels have been low, there may be a need to run it up. Where do you guys sit across the portfolio and is there a need for retailer inventory levels to shift over the next couple of quarters?

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Alexia, we really have not seen anything out of the ordinary on inventory levels on our businesses. So, for us, it's pretty much business as usual.

Alexia Howard
Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein

Great. Thank you very much. And then, in the prepared remarks, I think you made a comment that obviously the consumer environment is evolving. Could you just hit the high notes of what the key consumer shifts that you're working your way through right now? And I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Yeah. There's been a lot in the press and the media just around consumer sentiment and being a little bit more cautious. We've seen a bit of that. I think if you look at our categories, they tend to be more resilient than the broader center of store categories. And so, we have benefited from that. Similarly, there has been some discussions around private label and this notion of trading down. And my response to that would be two-fold.

Number one, again, this notion of making sure we're offering brands across the entire spectrum of value and although you have seen some private label share growth, that is pretty normal in these times and it is not back to pre-pandemic levels. So, although there is a little bit of -- there is some shifting in the categories, I would just point to the fact that our categories are resilient and we will continue to invest in our brands.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Scott Mushkin from R5 Capital. Your line is now live.

Scott Mushkin
Analyst at R5 Capital

Thanks, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I actually wanted to clarify some of the comments around the pet food area. So, I think it was mentioned before that there were some out of stock issues. I guess that's with competitors. Is that what I'm taking because I think you guys said you're fine on the inventory perspective and people haven't been replenishing? Did I get that correct?

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

What I said earlier, Scott, was that there have been broad supply chain challenges in the pet space largely because pet products are formulated food, which have a lot of inputs, a lot of ingredients and that makes a supply chain a bit more complicated and so that has affected the industry broadly. But where we are very pleased is our ability to having managed through a lot of those challenges and allowed us and only just speaking for ourselves to stay on shelf and in supply.

Scott Mushkin
Analyst at R5 Capital

Okay. That's actually -- so that's a good clarification. So, I appreciate it. And I wanted to ask something a little bit long ranging. You've been talking to some of the distributors about what's going to happen here as maybe inflation cools off as you guys think out next year, the year after. How do you guys think about that and how your business would look if we got a retrenchment that way? Nothing is going to happen, but if it did, if it were to happen? Thanks.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Well, first of all, it's hard to say. You know, a little relief would be great, but my answer to that question, Scott, would simply be that we have been always prudent and disciplined about when we take cost up and we would similarly be very prudent and disciplined if we had to lower prices over time. But at this point, because it's still volatile, there's a lot of unknowns in the marketplace, we can't really provide any more color than that.

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

Scott, I would also add that we remain committed to the profitability and margin profile of our brands and business. And so, as we continue to navigate this inflationary environment, as we continue to move forward, we'll continue to reinvest in those brands on behalf of our business. And we'll continue to think through what ongoing continuous improvement or productivity programs will also mean to the long-term health and strategy of the company.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Rebecca Scheuneman from Morningstar. Your line is now live.

Rebecca Scheuneman
Analyst at Morningstar

Great. Good morning and thanks for the questions. So my first question has to do with coffee margins. I think that they were down about 350 basis points in the quarter, probably a bit more than I expected. Obviously I know that there is some volume issues there. You had also mentioned that you're investing in Folgers marketing. So I'm just kind of wondering like as we look at the year and even if volumes start to perform better there, should we still expect those margins to be lower year-on-year, given the increases in marketing?

Tucker Marshall
Chief Financial Officer at J. M. Smucker

So, the coffee story is one of cost inflation that has needed to be recovered on a dollar for dollar basis. And this first quarter is our largest cost component or cost basket. So that is really what is driving the year-over-year margin pressure and as we move sequentially through the balance of the fiscal year, we would anticipate that our coffee margins improve, but getting them back to the historical 30-plus-percent level will still take us some time as we navigate this inflationary environment.

Rebecca Scheuneman
Analyst at Morningstar

Okay, great. Thank you. And then, my second question is about dog food. You had mentioned either in the press release or the prepared comments that you think dog food is well positioned for evolving consumer habits. I believe what you're referring to there is kind of given inflation, you could see some consumers trading down from the premium and super premium to more of the mid tier. First of all, is that what you're referring to? And if so, are you seeing that yet or is that something that you just anticipate you could be seeing? Thank you.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Rebecca, there is a little bit of that. There's a little bit of trading down. Again, going back to some of my earlier comments about making sure we're providing value to the consumer, the benefit to our dog food business this quarter is again around the fact that we've done a lot of work to stabilize the business, make sure that we're managing through the supply constraints and we have benefited in that regard because we've done a good job of managing through some of the supply issues. And then, thirdly, there is a bit of the trading into our brands.

Rebecca Scheuneman
Analyst at Morningstar

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We reached end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to management to conclude.

Mark Smucker
Chief Executive Officer and President at J. M. Smucker

Well, I want to thank everyone for your time joining us this morning. And as always, our results were made possible by our outstanding team, our employees, and I really want to just thank them for their discipline and hard work and dedication to our company and our brands. And we hope to see many of you in Boston at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference in a couple of weeks. And there will be a live webcast of our presentation on September 6 at 2:15, and you can access that from our Investor Relations website. Have a great day.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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