QUALCOMM Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
November 2, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Qualcomm delivered record Q4 revenue of $11.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.13, driven by a 28% YoY increase in QCT revenues to $9.9 billion with strength in handsets, automotive and IoT.
  • For fiscal 2022, total revenues reached $44 billion (up 32% YoY) and QCT full-year revenues were $37.7 billion (up 39%), reflecting robust growth in chipsets, automotive and IoT.
  • Key diversification wins include a multi-year Snapdragon agreement with Samsung for premium Galaxy devices, a >$30 billion design-win pipeline in automotive (bolstered by the Arriver acquisition for ADAS) and partnerships for Windows on Snapdragon and Meta XR platforms.
  • For Q1 FY23, Qualcomm expects revenues of $9.2–$10 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.80, including an estimated $0.80 EPS impact from elevated channel inventory and weaker end-market demand amid macroeconomic and China COVID headwinds.
  • The company has implemented cost-control measures such as a hiring freeze and R&D optimization toward automotive and IoT, and remains confident in its long-term strategy to expand its addressable market to ~$700 billion over the next decade.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
QUALCOMM Q4 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm 4th Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Then the number to One Question and One Follow-up.

Operator

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, November 2, 2022. The playback number for today's call is 877-660-6853. International Callers, please dial 201-612-7415. The playback reservation number is 1,373,389. I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Mr. Lopez Hodoyan, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Christiana Mon and Akash Palkawala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question and answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today.

Speaker 1

During the call today, we will use non GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. Call. We will also make forward looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10 ks, comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Mon.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Fiscal 'twenty two has been a strong year for Qualcomm with record performance in our chipset business and a strong execution of our diversification and growth strategy. We remain focused on continuing to transition Qualcomm from a wireless communications company for the mobile industry to a connected processor company for the Intelligent Edge. Quarter.

Speaker 2

We're driving the transformation of industries and growth of the digital economy by powering the billions of smart connected devices at the edge, utilizing our one technology roadmap with leadership in wireless connectivity, high performance low power computing and on device AI. While the semiconductor industry is being impacted by significant macroeconomic headwinds and other short term challenges from which we're not immune. The fundamentals of Qualcomm's growth drivers remain unchanged with significant opportunities in the coming years. In Q4, we delivered record revenues of $11,400,000,000 and non GAAP earnings per share of $3.13 reflecting record revenues in our chipset business and solid performance in licensing. QCT revenues of $9,900,000,000 were up 28% year over year, including record performance across handsets, automotive and IoT.

Speaker 2

Fiscal 'twenty two revenues of $44,000,000,000 were up 32% year over year. QCT, the growth engine of the company, Contributed revenues of $37,700,000,000 up 39% year over year with combined fiscal year IoT Let me now summarize a few highlights from the fiscal year. In handsets, we entered into a new multi year agreement with Samsung, expanding the use of Snapdragon platforms for future premium Samsung Galaxy products globally. Quarter. We also executed on the changing OEM landscape opportunity, securing key premium and high tier design wins with our customers in China.

Speaker 2

Snapdragon has become synonymous with premium mobile experiences worldwide. In automotive, our design win pipeline across connectivity, digital cockpit and ADAS is now greater than $30,000,000,000 quarter. We also completed the acquisition of Arriver, which enhances our ability to deliver open, scalable, fully integrated and competitive ADAS solutions. Importantly, we have firmly established ourselves In IoT, we extended our chipset roadmap to Capitalize on trends driving the connected intelligent edge, notably the convergence of personal computing with mobile, the intersection of physical and virtual spaces, the enterprise transformation of the home, The expansion of broadband and the ongoing digital transformation across many verticals. In Consumer IoT, we increased OEM design wins and ecosystem traction for our next generation Windows on Snapdragon solutions, which incorporate our custom CPUs.

Speaker 2

The game changing AI capabilities of our Snapdragon compute platform recently demonstrated at Microsoft's Ignite 2022 Developer Conference will redefine user experiences on Windows 11. We also announced a multi year agreement with Meta to develop premium virtual reality and mixed reality experiences starting with next generation devices powered by custom Snapdragon XR platforms. We continue to be a leading In Edge Networking IoT, we have seen positive share traction related to the rollout of Wi Fi 6 and 6E solutions for enterprise access points and retail mesh systems. And we are seeing strong interest in new design wins for our Wi Fi 7 solutions. Additionally, our 5 gs fixed wireless access broadband solution payments, gateways, smart camera, enterprise collaboration and edge processing.

Speaker 2

The growing diversity of these end markets position us well to benefit from durable and margin accretive growth opportunities in Industrial. In licensing, we extended our agreement with Samsung through 2,030, establishing an important benchmark for the long term and for future renegotiations. In addition to delivering record financial results, our fiscal 'twenty two achievements validate our strategy and have provided a strong foundation for long term growth. As we look to fiscal 'twenty three, further deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and extended China COVID restrictions have resulted in demand weakness and temporary elevated channel inventory across the industry. As good stewards of capital for our stockholders, we are committed to managing our business in light of the current environment without losing sight of the significant growth opportunities ahead.

Speaker 2

To that end, quarter. We're being very disciplined in managing operating expenses, while optimizing our R and D investments to prudently focus on growth within Automotive and IoT. We have already implemented a hiring freeze and we have planned spending reductions across our mature product areas and SG and A to fund our diversification. We are continuing to evaluate additional actions and we are prepared and committed to making further reductions to operating expenses as needed. It is important to note that the current inventory drawdown is a cyclical adjustment that has no impact on the underlying growth and earnings power of the company in the long term, and we are in a strong position to manage the near term headwinds.

Speaker 2

Beyond 2023, we see a number of our strategic growth initiatives increasing in scale. We anticipate automotive revenues will grow consistent with our Auto Investor Day projections as the design win pipeline materializes. Number of design wins to date. XR is just at the beginning of its growth curve. 5 gs wireless fiber presents significant opportunities in regions such as India and other developing economies that have just started to deploy 5 gs networks.

Speaker 2

Lastly, The digital transformation of industries will continue to gain momentum, driving connectivity and intelligence at the Edge. In summary, despite the short term challenges, the fundamentals of our growth strategy remain intact. We remain confident in our ability to navigate the current economic downturn given our strong balance sheet and consistent history of strong free cash flow generation. We will continue to focus on stockholder returns and executing on our ongoing diversification opportunities. The powerful secular tailwinds driving multi year demand we remain on track to expand our addressable market by more than 7 times to approximately $700,000,000,000 in the next decade and formally established Qualcomm as the connected processor company for the Intelligent Edge.

Speaker 2

I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. In a challenging macroeconomic environment, We're pleased to announce strong 4th quarter results with record revenues of $11,400,000,000 and non GAAP EPS of $3.13 quarter. These results reflect year over year increases of 22% 23% in revenues and EPS respectively, driven by strength across QCT. This was also a record quarter for QCT revenues of $9,900,000,000 and EBT margin of 34%, quarter, both above the midpoint of our guidance with year over year revenue growth of 28% and EBT dollar growth of 37%. Handset revenues of $6,600,000,000 increased 40% versus the year ago quarter on strength of our Snapdragon product portfolio across premium and high tiers.

Speaker 3

Quarter. As expected, RF front end revenues of $992,000,000 were impacted by the continued weakness of the handset market and channel inventory. IoT revenues were up 24% year over year to $1,900,000,000 on growth across Edge Networking and Industrial IoT. Automotive revenues of $427,000,000 grew 58% versus the year ago quarter due to the broad adoption of our Snapdragon digital chassis. QTL revenues of $1,400,000,000 and EBT margin of 69% reflected the impact of lower handset units relative to our expectations at the beginning of the quarter.

Speaker 3

Turning to fiscal 'twenty two results, we delivered record non GAAP revenues and EPS year over year growth of 32% and 47%, respectively. In addition, looking over the past 2 fiscal years, We've more than doubled our non GAAP revenues and almost tripled non GAAP EPS from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2022, underscoring the strong momentum across our businesses. In QCT, we had records across all revenue streams, We are pleased with the continued success of our diversification strategy as we delivered year over year combined revenue growth of 38% across IoT and Automotive. Lastly, we continue to be disciplined in delivering long term stockholder value. We executed on our capital return commitments, returning 93% of our free cash flow, including $3,200,000,000 in dividends and $3,100,000,000 in stock repurchases.

Speaker 3

Before turning to Q1 guidance, I'll address how our near term financial outlook is impacted by the challenges facing the semiconductor industry. As we communicated during the last earnings call, we had started to see a deceleration in demand for master handsets and consumer IoT. Since then, the further deterioration of macroeconomic environment and sustained COVID restrictions in China have led to broad based demand weakening across tiers and regions. Given these considerations, we now project 3 gs, 4 gs, 5 gs handset volumes in calendar 2022 to decline by low double digits on a year over year basis, including 600,000,000 to 650,000,000 5 gs handsets. This rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraint across the semiconductor industry have resulted in elevated channel inventory.

Speaker 3

Due to these elevated levels, our largest customers have made significant changes to their inventory policy. They are now drawing down on their inventory, negatively impacting our near term financial performance. Based on our current assessment, we estimate that there are roughly 8 to 10 weeks of elevated inventory in the channel. While the environment is very dynamic, Based on the information we have today, we believe this may take a couple of quarters to work itself through with more than half of the inventory drawdown quarter. We are confident in our ability to navigate this environment successfully and we'll continue to monitor inventory levels and order patterns As Cristiano outlined, while we navigate this downturn, we've already implemented specific actions to manage our spending levels, including the hiring freeze and reductions in handsets, other mature product areas and SG and A.

Speaker 3

We will remain disciplined And be prepared to take further decisive actions on additional reductions to operating expenses if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate. Turning to guidance for the 1st fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $9,200,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 and non GAAP EPS $0.80 in EPS related to the drawdown of channel inventory with the remaining impact primarily due to weaker end market demand and foreign exchange headwinds. In QCT, we expect revenues of $7,700,000,000 to $8,300,000,000 and EBT margins of 26% to 28%. Following the record performance in 4th quarter, we expect our handsets and IoT revenue streams to be down sequentially due to the impacts I just described.

Speaker 3

Quarter. On a year over year basis, we still expect revenue growth across IoT and Automotive. We estimate QTL revenues $1,450,000,000 to $1,650,000,000 and EBT margins of 71% to 75%. This estimate reflects the updated handset forecast, including a muted seasonal benefit for the holiday quarter and approximately $50,000,000 headwind from foreign exchange on a year over year basis. 5 gs and Wi Fi 7 platforms across handsets, automotive and IoT.

Speaker 3

As a result, starting in fiscal 'twenty three, we will consolidate RF front end revenues within handsets, automotive and IoT revenue streams. In addition, we'll continue to provide periodic updates on the combined RF front end revenues against our Investor Day target. For Apple product revenue, we now expect to have the vast majority of share of 5 gs modems for the 2023 iPhone launch, up from our previous 20% assumption. Beyond this, there are no changes to our planning assumption, And we are assuming minimal contribution from Apple product revenues in fiscal 2025. In closing, while the current backdrop presents near term headwinds for our industry, We remain confident in our leading technology roadmap, deep customer relationships and strong balance sheet to help us navigate these challenges and maintain our leadership position.

Speaker 3

Quarter. Our diversification strategy and long term growth opportunities remain intact as we continue to drive our vision to bring cloud connectivity, data processing and artificial intelligence to the edge. Thank you. Back to you, Mauricio.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Kaush. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

Operator

One moment please for the first question. Matt Ramsay with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 4

Good afternoon. Thank you very much, guys. I guess my first question, Cristiano, So I guess the questions are, are you guys seeing the weakness that's been there in global and low mid tier Android. Are you seeing that worsen or are you seeing that weakness quarter. And the second part is, we get questions from investors about when things do weaken, and you're seeing ASPs hold up well.

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Matt. This is Cristiano. I'm going to start the question. I'm going to ask Akash To also add some data. So, what we have seen in the smartphone markets and I think we try to detail as much As we can in the script.

Speaker 2

It's really there is a combination of the weakness of demand, which is related to Basically, the macroeconomic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China that has kind of single out the China market has been also down as the major factor and it's mostly a handset consumer story. The other issue So companies across the board had much higher inventory policies. When supply chain got resolved and you get that with the macroeconomics uncertainty, You have a drawdown in trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint. That starting to hit the premium tier as well as customers are basically adjusting their inventory levels on premium tier. Quarter.

Speaker 2

However, we actually see as we go to next generation possibilities for ASP to increase because we're actually increasing processor content And we're very well positioned for the premium tier. If you take the Apple update, I would say every premium tier device has Qualcomm content on it. Of course, the best story It's Snapdragon across Samsung and our Chinese customers and the content is increasing. We expect to see ASP going up. Akash, anything you would like to add?

Speaker 3

Just maybe quickly, Matt, on your first question. What we saw in the September quarter through our licensee reporting is weakness across tiers and regions. So, it was it cut across all tiers in that case. And then that's what we are projecting forward in the December quarter as well. And then Clearly on the ASP side, as Cristiano said, the content is increasing and we have opportunity on upside in that case.

Speaker 3

And also you've seen us managed through the last couple of years of foundry price increases and then we've been able to keep gross margin strong.

Speaker 4

Thank you both for the answers there. As my follow-up, Akash, last year, I guess, a year ago on the call at the beginning of the fiscal year, you were different environment, lot less volatility obviously, but you talked to us about the next fiscal year maybe having 20% or more EPS growth for the company and you obviously did much better than that and I think you came in at 47. A lot of different variables now, the inventory correction, a change in extension of the Apple business. If you have any thoughts there about how we should think about the next fiscal year, we'd really appreciate it. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Quarter. Sure, Matt. So if you look at the Q1, there are really two factors that are kind of inconsistent with current recent trend. The first one is this inventory drawdown that we are seeing in the quarter. Impact of that is approximately $0.80 That's really the primary impact.

Speaker 3

Of course, there's a little bit of impact that also comes in from the weaker market environment as well. So when you take that impact in the Q1 projected forward for the rest of the year, we were very That the OEM inventory drawdown, we see that as a couple quarter issue and it's not something that's a long term challenge for us. It's a short term cyclical issue. So that should inform how we projected through the year. And then on the market side, given the uncertainty at this point, our planning assumption is that the weakness in the market lasts Through the fiscal year, clearly, if the market improves, we will see that as upside.

Speaker 3

But at this point, we are going to plan based on current scale of the market. So If you take kind of current expectations and apply that framework to the year, that should hopefully inform how we do the forecast for the Q2 and also for the full year.

Operator

Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess, I had 2 as well. And if I can start on IoT instead smartphone.

Speaker 5

I guess Akash, you mentioned smart IoT revenues as well moderating sequentially. And I wanted to see if you can now You've broken out the sort of IoT business previously into consumer, industrial and edge networking, calling it roughly sort of 1 third, 1 third, 1 third. Now as we start to sort of see some moderation there, can you now talk about the trends in terms of the different sort of sub segments there? And where are you Seeing more resilience versus sort of maybe more weakness and how should we really be sort of projecting that forward? And I have a follow-up.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure, Sameek. So, on IoT, we're obviously pretty happy with the way that business has played out for us. So, we've gone from $3,000,000,000 in fiscal 2020 to $7,000,000,000 $6,900,000,000 in 'twenty two. And then the quarter we reported was a record quarter for IoT at $1,900,000,000 of revenue. Quarter.

Speaker 3

So pretty happy with how the business is doing. Now in terms of the macro environment impacting the IoT market overall and there it's less about Qualcomm, it's about the overall macro environment. We're definitely seeing the impact of that on consumer and in some ways synonymous with handsets. Edge networking is holding for us quarter. And we're seeing some minor pockets of weakness in industrial, but overall, I think when you kind of step back and look at where our IoT opportunity exists, For us, it's about digital transformation and about connecting everything to the cloud.

Speaker 3

And our technology portfolio is perfectly suited to enable various industries to do that. So, we feel pretty optimistic longer term.

Speaker 5

Okay. Got it. And for my follow-up, I mean, I think Christian and Akashi both sort of talked about the content opportunity around Snapdragon And even sort of around fiscal 'twenty three in the handset market. A lot of the pushback that we get from investors around that could really drive particularly as you think about a weaker macro setup is OEMs opting to use sort of previous generation Snapdragon and continue to sort of prioritize price in the market to make it much more affordable for consumers to buy smartphones So as to trigger sort of volumes or help volumes in the market. I mean, when you think about sort of the fiscal 'twenty three, what are your planning assumptions when it comes to content gains or market share gains and how confident of you of OEMs not sort of sticking to prior generation chips as just to be able to optimize the price cost equation here?

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question, Samit. Let me start by giving you a direct answer. The design activity we have 4 next generation Snapdragon. It's not showing that. It's showing that as we expect in the mobile market, especially in the premium tier, weeks and I think design traction is very, very high.

Speaker 2

I think what we see right now is structurally we're very well positioned. If you look of the agreement we have with Samsung, plus the change of OEM landscape in China and how that positions Snapdragon as the premium and high tier device. I think we're just going to see the fluctuations on the market size and how we deal in the

Operator

Mike Walkley from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead with your question. Thanks

Speaker 6

for taking my question. Just more on the planning assumptions for fiscal 'twenty three. Do you expect with the macro environment that the handset market shrinks again by double digits from calendar 'twenty two for fiscal 'twenty three? And then as a follow-up, I'll just ask them both now. In terms of OpEx with it down sequentially, is it a scenario that you expect more OpEx cuts as you get into seasonally slower quarters or kind of flattish off this level?

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Mike, it's Akash. For fiscal 2023, our market assumption is that the kind of the weak market we are seeing in the September, December quarter carries on to the rest of fiscal 'twenty three. And so we're not using the first half of calendar 2022 as the basis, but really kind of the current, say scale of the market carrying forward. So that's our base assumption. Quarter.

Speaker 3

And clearly there is unpredictability and variance around it, but that's the planning assumption we're using for now. On the OpEx side, As we deal with these short term headwinds, we're clearly taking decisive action on things that we control. As Cristiano mentioned, We've implemented a hiring freeze. We're reducing our spend in mature businesses, including handsets and SG and A. And then we are optimizing our R and D investments to increase focus on automotive and IoT, which is obviously the core of our strategy on diversification.

Speaker 3

And then finally, the way to think about fiscal 'twenty three OpEx is we expect it will come in below fiscal 'twenty two exit run rate. So we're clearly taking action on OpEx from that perspective.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please state your question.

Speaker 7

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 3

I want

Speaker 8

to ask a little bit about March quarter.

Speaker 7

So you're saying that the inventory flush lasts a couple of quarters. You said more than half of it's done in December quarter. It seems like there's a good chunk that's still coming in March. But at the same time, you also, Christiana, just talked about the incremental Samsung volume starting to ramp in March. How do we think about the interplay of those two things?

Speaker 7

Is the Samsung volume enough To offset some of that channel flush that we're still seeing in March, I mean you said big customers are changing some of their inventory plans. Is Samsung one of those big customers? Is it doesn't sound like it's just isolated Just anything you can give us about like some of those drivers both positive and negative as they're going into the market would be helpful. And then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 3

Sure, Stacy. It's Akash. So from a March quarter perspective, you're right, the benefit from the Samsung launch for the new phone would be in the in kind of the second half of the March quarter. So it comes in towards the end of the quarter, but that will be an advantage whereas our share from 75% in GS22 goes up to global share in GS23. In terms of inventory adjustment.

Speaker 3

I think you're right the way you heard it. You have an impact of $0.80 in the Q1 and it's more than half. So we do expect to have some impact from that going into 2nd quarter as well. And then your last question on whether it's So just the Chinese or Samsung and others adjusting inventory, it's really across the industry.

Speaker 7

All right. That's helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the QTL run rate. So I get the market's weak, but presumably Apple should be Stronger than the rest of the market into December, and usually that gives a pretty big lift. It implies that Android must be really bad in the December quarter, unless there's something else going on.

Speaker 7

The run rate down, so I think it used to be around 1.7 in December quarter and you're guiding about 150,000,000 light?

Speaker 3

Yes, purely driven by market and mix functions. It has nothing to do with any other issue overall. Now just to highlight a couple of things QTL numbers in the December quarter. At this point, we are not expecting normal seasonal volume increase Into December. So maybe one of the disconnects or questions you might have on the variance between those two numbers, 1.7 versus 1.55 Is driven by that assumption.

Speaker 3

And then second, I'd say is, we do have FX impact that shows up in QTL. I highlighted in my script on a year over year basis that's an impact of approximately $50,000,000 that's included in our guidance.

Operator

Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank. Please state your question.

Speaker 9

Hi, guys. Thanks for letting

Speaker 10

me ask a question. Akash, I want to go into the margin side of things. And I know you guys don't guide overtly to the gross margin side, but we can kind of back into generally where it is. So within that $0.80 hit to the fiscal Q1 guidance. Is there anything going on with charges on the gross margin side?

Speaker 10

Because the same sort of question that Stacy just asked revenue side for the March quarter will likely apply when people work through their models on the gross margin side. Should we expect a snap back there? Is it a one time thing? Any sort of progression on the profitability would be helpful.

Speaker 3

Yes. So, first, Ross, on your direct question, there isn't a set of charges that are included in the number Anything significant. So that's the base assumption. The second thing I would say is, If you look at where we guided our 4th fiscal quarter and where we came in, we actually did significantly better than our guidance. And then where we are guiding the first quarter is really in line with the guidance we had given for 4th quarter.

Speaker 3

So nothing specifically to look at there. We're kind of navigating through the environment. And then Over the last couple of years, as I said earlier, we are pretty happy with the way we've navigated through foundry price increases as well. So, focus for us is staying discipline on the pricing side and kind of taking advantage of the technology and products we have to improve our market share.

Speaker 9

Thanks for that.

Speaker 10

And I guess as my follow-up, I just want to hit on the automotive side. I guess kind of a 2 part question. In the near term, you didn't mention that as being down. So am I assume wins. I know you guys have a ton of market share gains.

Speaker 10

We're all in New York at your Auto Tech Day. So I get that longer term, but are you seeing any evidence at all that the macro conditions might

Speaker 2

So let me give you the first answer. The way you should think about our auto, we have been you have the telematics business, then you have the digital cockpit that was big component of the design pipeline and those are turning into revenue and then the next one after that is ADAS. Quarter. So we expect the story of Qualcomm Automotive has been about the pipeline materializing into revenues and continue to generate growth, Less impacted by the short term markets. I don't know, Akash, if you want to add anything.

Speaker 3

I'll just say, kind of as you think about our auto business, it's all about new car launches And how the adoption of our solutions kind of helps our revenue as the cars launch. So that's really the primary driver versus the overall size of the market.

Speaker 10

And it will be up sequentially in the Q1, just to clarify your guidance?

Speaker 3

Our guidance was that we said For IoT and handsets, it will be down. We were quiet on auto, which implies it's not going to be down.

Operator

Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you. I wonder if you could talk about when you think the inventory built, because it seems like year. You were on allocation until just a few months ago. Like do you think people were able to kind of get ahead of that and build inventory while it was still tight?

Speaker 9

Or did all that inventory build in a relatively short period of time, which would say that the recent numbers might be kind of overstated relative to demand.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi. So, it's That's a fair question. So, if you really think about our last earnings, one of the things we said was we expected customers to be cautious with their purchases in the second half of twenty twenty two. Quarter.

Speaker 3

But since then, what has happened really is the macroeconomic environment deteriorated and we went from a period of supply shortages to demand declines. And it's kind of an unprecedented change over a short period of time. And what you're seeing is really OEMs Responding to that and making a change in their inventory policy and now drawing down on inventory. So that's the impact that we're seeing In the December quarter that we sized at approximately $0.80 If you also think about the seasonality, you typically expect December quarter to be a growth quarter As people build inventory going into the holiday season and what we're seeing is the opposite. So, It does kind of come as a surprise in terms of how quickly the environment changed.

Speaker 9

Quarter. And then if I could follow-up, what are you seeing on the pricing side in the more competitive markets, particularly in China? Is that the same as you've described or is there a kind of incremental competition

Speaker 2

as you come out of a tight supply situation?

Speaker 3

No additional comments to what I just said. I mean gross margin question that I answered kind of really factored. It's more of a pricing question than anything else and those comments still apply.

Operator

Lumikschiosha from Daiwa. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 8

Hey, great. This is a longer term question. I guess some news came out a little while ago from Ford and VM that they're closing down Argo and also one of the big self driving ADAS pioneers, Levandowski actually seems to change its view. Realize that you guys just had the order date, which is great, and you're really But just any comments on this and that how difficult it will be actually to stick to the prior timeframe that you had originally talked about at the Auto Day?

Speaker 2

Very good. Thanks for your question, Lo.

Speaker 8

The way you

Speaker 2

should think about our ADAS platform and as part of the Snapdragon digital chassis, we're really focused on scaling the technology and technology that has commercial applications. We really scale from level 2

Speaker 3

All the

Speaker 2

way to level 3 plus and we're not the market I think is still for robo taxes, I think is still future market. We're really focused on attaching ADAS to every core. I think that's what has been the key driver of our design wins and that's why we're winning across brands and across tiers for all the ones we announced. Quarter. And we feel pretty bullish about ADAS materializing from the pipeline into revenues in the next few years.

Speaker 2

And You have to start thinking about that as they're multi different levels of ADAS starting with mandatory in cap camera all the way to highway autopilot and we're really focused in that part of the market. That's where scale is.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Blayne Curtis from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 11

Thanks for taking my questions. Actually, I had 2 and I apologize if you kind of answered this, but I wanted to ask it again. Just in terms of the weakness, clearly Android has a lot of inventory to work through. I'm just kind of curious if you're baking in any non Android softness or there's been concerns about production and such. I know it's a tough customer to answer, but is there a way you can talk about what you're embedding for the handset business both Android and iOS?

Speaker 3

Yes, I think the adjustment we talked about is primarily Android. That's how we should think about

Speaker 12

it. Perfect. And then I was just kind

Speaker 11

of curious as to the thought process on rolling in the RF business. I know this is a big TAM for you guys and you've made a lot of progress in kind of penetrating that. So I'm just kind of curious if you just walk through the thought of rolling that back in starting next year?

Speaker 3

Quarter. Sure. So when you look at our RF front end business, it's kind of an end to end modem to antenna development cycle. And because of that, We've become the number one player in handsets already. When we look forward, the way we think about the growth in the business is it's driving 5 gs further into handsets and Wi Fi 7, but also into automotive and IoT.

Speaker 3

And one of the new disclosures we gave, and you'll see this in our web slides. In fiscal 2022, we had $137,000,000 in auto RF front end revenue And we have a design win pipeline of greater than $900,000,000 And then within IoT, we have RF front end revenue of $405,000,000 So Those numbers are becoming of scale and generally still it was mostly handsets. We kept it separate. But I think we're getting to a point where It's becoming at scale within automotive and IoT and so we thought the change in the revenue streams was this was the right time to do it.

Operator

Timothy Arcuri from UBS. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 12

Hi, thanks. I had 2. I guess the first one is on Apple. You did update that you now expect the vast majority of the launch in 2023 for you to be in the product. That's not a big surprise, I think, to most people.

Speaker 12

And you said that by 2025 that you'll be out of the products, but you used the word product. So I just want to clarify that you are still assuming that once they don't need your modem anymore that they will still pay you a royalty for set patents?

Speaker 2

Hi, this is Cristiano. The licensing business is completely independent of whether or not we supply modem to them. So your assumption is correct. We expect to continue to have licensing revenues. And I think consistent with what we said in the past, We're focused on our strategy on long term customers and we're just going to assume that our planning assumption Yes, we don't have any visibility and continue to provide a modem in 2025.

Speaker 12

Quarter. Perfect. Thank you, Christiano. And then I guess also Akash, I had a question on the financial model for QCT. I know you gave it a year ago and things have changed a lot since then.

Speaker 12

At the time, you were sort of implying if you sort of ran the growth rate out to 24, it was sort of implying a $40,000,000,000 QCT revenue out in 2024. You're now down to sort of $8,000,000,000 a quarter, so you're now run rate more like $32,000,000 Do you still feel confident you can get back next year into the 10 a quarter that would get you to that $40,000,000,000 financial model next year?

Speaker 3

Yes. So, as I'm sure you know, We just delivered $30,000,000,000 $38,000,000,000 of revenue for fiscal 2022 for QCT. And so our strategy is unchanged. We are executing so far well ahead of target. And so, really what we are focused on right now is navigating the current environment, no updates to our Investor Day targets.

Operator

Brett Simpson from Arete Research. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 13

Yes, thanks very much. I wanted to ask just the extent to which Qualcomm thinks they're under shipping demand in the December quarter. And maybe just factoring in the weak outlook for December, and I think you talked about this flagship ramp with Samsung in the March quarter. Is it fair to assume the December quarter is a trough for Qualcomm this cycle? I mean, any perspective there as we look through that fiscal 'twenty three would be very helpful.

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, Brett. From an inventory drawdown perspective, we definitely see 1st quarter as the bottom. As we said, more than 50% of Inventory drawdown we think happened in the Q1. And so that hopefully answers the question you were asking.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thanks, Akash. And maybe just a follow-up on China. I mean, it's something that certainly is on a lot of investors' minds. How does Qualcomm feel about your position in the region, particularly with the geopolitics that's happening right now?

Speaker 13

Do you see risks here long term to the business or is there scope for growth in China? Any perspectives there would be much appreciated. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question. Look, we the latest set of restrictions, we were not impacted by those. And we have seen our business in China to continue to expand, especially as we grew into auto and IoT, we see corresponding expansion of those business in China as well. I think we have a global position. I think we It's one global standard, especially when you think about the mobile market in 5 gs.

Speaker 2

And We look at a position that we have in China as one that is pretty stable right now. It's very difficult to predict this environment, but so far I think continue to be a strong business from Qualcomm with growth opportunities and we're hopeful that the extended lockdown will end soon and that's going to have likely a positive impact on the size of the phone market.

Operator

That concludes today's question and answer session. Mr. Aman, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you everyone for listening to the call. I just want to say a big thank you to all of our employees and partners that are helping us to their incredible fiscal 2022 and how we navigate to fiscal 2023. Just a few comments. Quarter.

Speaker 2

When you step back from the current short term macroeconomics and this temporary cyclical inventory drawdown, We feel that Qualcomm is very well positioned. A lot of the trends continue to point to our technology roadmap. You need connectivity, advanced processing in artificial intelligence at the edge. And as we outlined in the script, we see that everything is on track, including spending design for our Windows on Snapdragon with our custom CPU, their ability to continue to materialize the auto as well as IoT and Industrial IoT and the digital transformation has proven to be overall resilient in the long term. So we will be decisive in managing operating expenses, especially if the downturn gets steeper or more prolonged than we expect.

Speaker 2

Quarter. But I would like to remind everyone that the current inventory is a cyclical adjustment that has no impact on the underlying long term earnings power of the company. And we're well on our way executing our growth strategy and all the fundamentals remain in place. Thank you so

Operator

much. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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