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Alaska Air to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal that may attract regulator scrutiny
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New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
Alaska Air Group announces it has agreed to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal with debt
S&P 500   4,594.63
DOW   36,245.50
QQQ   389.94
Man kills 4 relatives in Queens knife rampage, injures 2 officers before he's fatally shot by police
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
British military reports an explosion off the coast of Yemen in the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Stock market today: Shares mixed in Asia ahead of updates on jobs, inflation
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
Alaska Air to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal that may attract regulator scrutiny
Watchdog: Western arms companies failed to ramp up production capacity in 2022 due to Ukraine war
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
Alaska Air Group announces it has agreed to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal with debt
S&P 500   4,594.63
DOW   36,245.50
QQQ   389.94
Man kills 4 relatives in Queens knife rampage, injures 2 officers before he's fatally shot by police
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
British military reports an explosion off the coast of Yemen in the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Stock market today: Shares mixed in Asia ahead of updates on jobs, inflation
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
Alaska Air to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal that may attract regulator scrutiny
Watchdog: Western arms companies failed to ramp up production capacity in 2022 due to Ukraine war
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
Alaska Air Group announces it has agreed to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal with debt
S&P 500   4,594.63
DOW   36,245.50
QQQ   389.94
Man kills 4 relatives in Queens knife rampage, injures 2 officers before he's fatally shot by police
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
British military reports an explosion off the coast of Yemen in the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Stock market today: Shares mixed in Asia ahead of updates on jobs, inflation
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
Alaska Air to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal that may attract regulator scrutiny
Watchdog: Western arms companies failed to ramp up production capacity in 2022 due to Ukraine war
New CBOE “special perk” helps traders target income every weekend (Ad)
Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
Alaska Air Group announces it has agreed to buy Hawaiian Airlines in a $1.9 billion deal with debt

Prologis Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript


Listen to Conference Call

Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Jill Sawyer
    Head Of Investor Relations
  • Timothy D. Arndt
    Chief Financial Officer
  • Dan Letter
    Global Head, Capital Deployment
  • Hamid Moghadam
    Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
  • Christopher N. Caton
    Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research
  • Mike Curless
    Chief Customer Officer

Analysts

Presentation

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference will be recorded. I will now turn the conference over to our host, Jill Sawyer, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Jill Sawyer
Head Of Investor Relations at Prologis

Thanks, Diego, and good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations. I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K or other SEC filings.

Additionally, our fourth quarter results press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP measures. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures. I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions and items; Hamid Moghadam, our CEO and our entire executive team are also with us today.

With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

Thanks, Jill. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. Let me begin by thanking our global team for delivering an excellent quarter and year. We've had outstanding results despite challenging headwinds from the capital markets and the overall economic backdrop. In the face of this, our focus has been to serve our customers and investors putting our heads down and executing on our long-term plan.

As you see in our results, our portfolio is in excellent shape, driven by still strong demand and a continued lack of availability. This foundation for our business not only drove our nearly 13% increase in year-over-year core earnings, but it also sets up the company for sustainable growth for years to come. Turning to results, core FFO, excluding promotes, was $4.61 per share and including promotes was $5.16 per share, ahead of our forecast.

In the fourth quarter, our operating results, again, generated several new records. Occupancy increased to 98.2%, with retention of 82%. The Prologis portfolio, excluding Duke, added 30 of the 40-basis point increase over the quarter. While we tend to quote occupancy, it is notable that the portfolio is 98.6% leased, a record that underscores the tightness across our markets. Rent change for the quarter was 51% on a net effective basis. The step down from our third quarter rent change of 60% is a reflection of mix and not market rents.

In fact, market rent growth exceeded expectations during the quarter, increasing our lease mark-to-market to a record 67%. These results drove same-store growth to 7.7% on a net effective basis and 9.1% on cash. The Duke portfolio, having closed on October 3, is fully integrated in these results with the exception of same-store growth, which will not be reflected until the first quarter of 2024.

On the balance sheet, while access to the debt markets have remained challenging for many issuers, we successfully executed a number of transactions during the quarter, raising over $1.1 billion at an interest rate below 3%, including $700 million of new unsecured borrowings out of Japan and Canada. Our credit metrics continue to be excellent, and we've maintained over $4 billion of liquidity at year-end with borrowing capacity across Prologis and the open-ended funds of $20 billion, expanded significantly due to our balance sheet growth from the Duke acquisition.

With regard to our markets and leasing activity, the bottom line is that conditions remain healthy and there is little we see across our results or proprietary metrics that point to a meaningful slowdown. We see a normalization of demand and when combined with low vacancy, it continues to translate to a meaningful increase in rents. Across our markets, rent growth was nearly 5% during the quarter, driving the full year to 28%.

Proposal activity for available space was consistent with our recent history and given persistent low vacancy, there is simply a very small number of units to even propose deals on. As evidenced, over 99% of our portfolio is either currently leased or in negotiation. Utilization remains high at 86%, near its all-time record. And deal gestation ticked up over the quarter, indicative of more careful consideration and time being taken in leasing decisions.

While we are watching e-commerce carefully, its share of overall retail sales have increased to 22%, which is 600 basis points above its pre-pandemic level. Putting the nuance of mix, timing and other factors aside, as measured by retention, occupancy or rent change, it is clear that customers need to commit to space to market conditions, which offer them very little choice. In terms of supply, the development pipeline across our market stands at 565 million square feet, and our expectation for the year is that the pipeline will decline.

Deliveries will put modest upward pressure on vacancies from 3.3% today towards 4% later in the year. However, new development starts are slowing in response to the market environment, which will reduce vacancies in late '23 or '24. In Europe, we expect deliveries to outpace absorption by approximately 30 million square feet, expanding the current 2.6% vacancy rate to approximately 3.5%.

Finally, and as expected, our true months of supply metric grew to 25 months in the U.S. from 22 months last quarter. As a reminder, this metric has averaged roughly 36 months over the last 10 years. In Capital Markets, transactions continue to be slow in the fourth quarter, making price discovery challenging. That said, return requirements are trending to the low to mid-7% range. This expansion further affected appraised values in our funds, although continued rent growth has mitigated some of the effect.

Our U.S. values, which were appraised by third parties every quarter, declined 6% this quarter and 7% over the entire second half. In Europe, values declined approximately 12% during the quarter and 16% over the half. Our open-end funds have received only modest redemption requests, less than 3% of net asset value during the quarter, totaling 5% across the second half. Our flagship funds have strong balance sheets with low leverage, largely undrawn credit facilities, cash on hand and undrawn equity commitments.

While we believe the value declines over the second half reflect market, investors are still adjusting to a new environment. Because we strive to be consistent in our actions and fair to all investors, we will redeem units call equity and resume asset contributions when price discovery has run its course. We expect that to be 1 to 2 quarters away likely sooner in Europe. This will ensure certainty, fairness and consistency to all of our investors.

Turning to our outlook for 2023. While our macro forecast assumes a moderate recession, which may put headwinds on demand, our business is driven by secular forces and long-term planning by our customers that should limit the impact unless such a downturn becomes significant and protracted. As mentioned earlier, we believe vacancy will build in the market and our portfolio, both of which are unsustainably low. Putting this sentiment together with our outlook on supply and demand, our '23 rent forecast calls for approximately 10% growth in the U.S. and 9% globally.

We acknowledge that our rent forecasts have proven conservative in recent years, but we are comfortable with this starting point given the environment. Specific to our portfolio and on our share basis, we expect average occupancy to range between 96.5% and 97.5%, roughly 50 basis points lower than the '22 midpoint. Combined with rent change, we forecast to generate net effective same-store growth of approximately 8% to 9% with casting store growth between 8.5% and 9.5%.

Given these assumptions, we believe our lease mark-to-market will be sustained or even increased over '23, ending the year between 65% and 70% and providing visibility to an incremental $2.9 billion of NOI after the more than $300 million that will become realized over the course of this year. We expect G&A to range between $370 million and $385 million, reflecting not only inflation in wages and other corporate costs, but also additional investments we are making in our Essentials business particularly in the energy teams.

In that regard, we expect the contribution to FFO from Essentials to range between $0.07 and $0.09 this year. This reflects 70% growth in revenues and tax credits from '22, but offset in the near term by our higher Duke related share count and the G&A investments just mentioned. In terms of operational metrics for the business, we expect to add 115 megawatts of solar power over the year driving the portfolio to approximately 540 megawatts by year-end. It's worth noting that we closed 2022 as the second largest on-site power producer in the U.S., a position we will build upon with our plan for 1 gigawatt of production and storage by 2025. We also forecast to have over 20 EV charging clusters installed and operational by year-end.

In deployment, we will continue to be disciplined in our approach to new starts. We have over $39 billion of opportunities to select from in our land bank and between our expectations for build-to-suits and logical markets prospect, we see an active year of starts initially to range between $2.5 billion and $3 billion with a real opportunity to grow as conditions warrant. As mentioned earlier, we plan for redemptions to be cleared out over the year and private fundraising to resume. Accordingly, we forecast contribution activity to occur primarily in the second half and resulting in combined contribution and disposition guidance of $2 billion to $3 billion. Finally, in strategic capital, we forecast revenues, excluding promotes, to range between $500 million and $525 million, which is impacted by valuation write-downs across '22 and the first half of '23.

We are forecasting net promote income of $0.40 based on an assumption that you -- that values in USLF, primary source of '23, promotes will decline further from values at year-end. Every 1% change in asset value equates to slightly less than $0.02 of net promote income. Putting this all together, we expect core FFO, excluding promotes, to range between $5 and $5.10 per share. At the midpoint of our guidance, this represents approximately 9.5% growth over 2022. We're guiding core FFO, including promotes, to range between $5.40 and $5.50 per share.

In closing, this guidance builds upon an exceptional 3-year period of sector-leading earnings growth. At our 2019 Investor Day, we presented a 3-year plan, targeting 8.5% annual growth, we achieved nearly 14% over this period, 550 basis points of annual outperformance. We expect 2023 to be a year where headlines continue to be disconnected from our business and ability to deliver strong growth and value creation.

While there are many unknowns generally, there are more knowns in our business that are clear, such as our lease mark-to-market; significant and visible opportunity in our land bank; a need for excitement -- a need and excitement for a new generation of sustainable energy solutions; and a dedicated team that is the best in the business and laser-focused on delivering leading results.

We'll now turn the call over to the operator to take your questions.


Questions and Answers

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore. Please state your question.

Stephen Thomas Sakwa
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Yeah, thanks. I guess good morning out there. Tim, I just wanted to clarify, and you're kind of going through your guidance. You know, you threw out a lot of numbers. I just want to be sure. On the mark-to-market numbers that are embedded in your same-store NOI growth of 8% to 9% GAAP and 8.5% to 9.5% cash, just what are you expecting for cash and GAAP leasing spreads? And I just want to make sure that's different than the kind of overall portfolio mark-to-market you talked about of 65% to 70%.

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

Yeah, they're going to be stronger. As you think about the lease mark-to-market, it's all of the leases or it represents old leases and leases just done. So, clearly, everything that will roll next year is going to be above the 67% we're quoting today. It's a little bit flatter than you might expect as we've looked at it.

I think leasing spreads next year are going to be in the high 70s to low 80s on a net effective basis. And then, as we know, the cash basis of that is trended toward probably 1,500 basis points or so inside of that.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi. Please state your question.

Craig Allen Mailman
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Hey, good morning, everyone. I just want to hit on the capital deployment side of things. You know, maybe a two-parter here. Just first, on the stabilization.

So, just kind of the -- what you guys have stabilizing the 2.8 billion at your share. Can you just bridge that gap versus the 5.5 billion that you have on Page 20 of expected deliveries or completions in 2023? And maybe just give us some sense of timing on that. I know I think about 30% of those are build-to-suit. So, also, how you're thinking about where the pre-leasing is on the balance of that as well and kind of how that layers into your occupancy assumption?

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

Okay. I'll take the -- hey, Craig, it's Tim. I'll take the first half. And Dan can help us on the second. This is really a date issue, I would say. Not even an issue but just a function of the date. We have a large amount of that group of stabilization we believe will occur in the first quarter of '24. And I think there is a very real possibility that if we improve some of the leasing timing by just a month or two, we could see a decent amount of that actually fall back into '23. So, it's just a function of crossing over a calendar year the way the mix of all of our projects is landing.

Dan Letter
Global Head, Capital Deployment at Prologis

This is Dan. I'll just pile on there. The pre-leasing in that portfolio, as you see, there's 29% of that. That's in there as a build-to-suit. The pre-leasing is better than that 29% and, I would say, on track with historical averages, even on a bigger data set here. So, we feel really good about delivering our stabilization to this year and next.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist. Please state your question.

Ki Bin Kim
Analyst at Truist Securities

Thanks, and good morning. I was curious about the investment capacity that you showed in your supplemental of $1.5 billion. It is down from $4.2 billion. I just want to understand what that actually represents.

And tying that to your comments about contributions perhaps picking back up if conditions settle out, how does that come in compared to that $1.5 billion capacity? And how much wiggle room do you ultimately have in increasing that capacity? Thank you.

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

Hi, Ki Bin. So, what I would do with regard to investment capacity is rely more on the way I'm describing in our prepared remarks that the 20 billion and the 4 billion, 5 billion across the funds, the number that's presented in the sub, which is what I think you're referring to, is a bit technical about the current amount of equity that can be drawn in the funds. And then, that number is levered slightly, so that's why it's a bit understated. The number we supplement it with in prepared remarks is looking at the overall leverage of the fund and how much more capacity sits beyond just out of committed equity post-leverage.

So, for example, our USLF sometimes by a factor of venture is very low leverage, just about 10%. And that creates an incredible amount of debt capacity, as you can imagine. And I think that winds up addressing your second question, which is, you know, the liquidity in the funds for contributions, there's a lot there for us to tap over time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank. Please state your question.

Derek Charles Johnston
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Hi, everyone. How are you doing? Can you give us an update on the markets in Europe, the mark-to-market there, any leasing trends? I think you touched briefly on the private market transaction backdrop. You know, definitely, we see the U.S. mark-to-market getting wider. Just how do you view demand in Europe and the differences between the U.S. and Europe unfolding in '23? Thank you.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah. Let me start with some general comments. Europe is generally a milder, more muted version of the U.S., both on the way up and on the way down. And the market has a lower vacancy rate than the U.S., if you can believe it.

So, that's the general backdrop. That's very consistent with the way Europe has behaved in the last 10 or 15 years. As to the specifics on mark-to-market and the like, Dan, do you want to cover that?

Dan Letter
Global Head, Capital Deployment at Prologis

Yeah, sure. Mark-to-market -- lease mark-to-market in Europe is about 28%. And I would say, just overall, we feel very good about the leasing demand in Europe right now. We talked about in the remarks about an expansion in the vacancy. But overall, we feel really good about where it's headed.

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

You know, and you might ask, what about the U.K. because that's the one you hear about all the time. And actually, that's really strong too so far. So, we've actually been surprised on the positive side with the U.K.

The other place that is really held up well is actually Germany, which you would have guessed with energy issues would be softer. It hasn't been, and there's virtually no vacancy in Germany. And some of the manufacturing coming back, particularly autos, etc., are really strengthening. Central and Eastern Europe, the markets, particularly Poland, where there's a perennial vacancy, is sort of tightening up.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Please state your question.

Nicholas Philip Yulico
Analyst at Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets

Thanks. I want to dig in a little bit to the sectors that you're seeing driving leasing demand. You know, let's say in the fourth quarter and so far this year, you know, whether you've seen any changes in types of customers taking space versus a year ago. And then, I guess, when we think about the broader retailer bucket, where you did see some retailers reporting year-over-year sales declines in the back half of last year, you know, wondering if any pieces of that category is seeing less demand.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah. The only category that is significantly below trend and is likely to be that way is housing. Because the starts are slowing. But with respect to other details, Chris, you want to take that?

Christopher N. Caton
Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research at Prologis

Yeah, that's absolutely right. Generally, Nick, it was diverse. So, whether we look at consumer products, whether we look at apparel, food and beverage customers, we have a diverse range of customers leasing space from us beyond the housing categories, which would include construction and could include home goods and the like.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah. And retail sales, on a real basis, notwithstanding the weaker prints in December and November, are good. You know, I think it's between 2.5% and 3% up from the year before. So, yeah, you do hear the headlines of the weaker retailers. But I think if you look at it overall, it's actually pretty positive. It's more positive than the headline. So, I wouldn't say it's super positive, but it's much better than the headlines.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please state your question.

Michael Goldsmith
Analyst at UBS Investment Bank

Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. You clearly laid out the building blocks of your same-store NOI growth of 8.5% to 9.5% in 2023, where you have a high level of visibility.

Obviously, a lot of macro uncertainty out there. Can you provide the specific assumptions you've used for your initial 2023 outlook and then just where and how a change in the macro environment could provide upside or downside to your initial guidance? Thanks.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

So, let me just start that, and Tim will take you through the specifics. Actually, the assumptions about the macro environment, other than call it defaults or something that has an immediate effect, are not going to drive the numbers big time in 2023 because a lot of the leasing that needs to take place in 2023 is already in progress or have been dealt with. We're dealing with very high occupancy levels. To start with, there is not a whole lot of space to lease. And the real driver of those same-store numbers is the huge mark-to-market in the portfolio that already exists. So, that's -- so don't expect -- even if we change the assumptions by a lot, the numbers for 2023 are not going to move that much. They will obviously move as you get further along into the future. So, that's one comment that I would make.

The second comment I would make is that in every year in the last three or four years, we started the year with the rental assumptions that we have exceeded, sometimes by a factor of three to 4 times. So, I'm not saying that's going to happen this year, but there is absolutely no reason in the world to go crazy on our assumptions with respect to rental rates, particularly they don't have an effect in 2023 anyway. So, we'll see how it plays. And if we see evidence of stronger rental growth, and my bet would be a surprise on the upside over our assumptions, not the other way around, then we'll let you know and you can adjust the numbers accordingly.

Tim?

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

Yeah. Just building on that. Michael, if you -- you know, within the supplemental, you can see our lease expiration schedule out of that. You'll see we have about 13% rolling. And that's a mix of what is stated as expiring, which is another 9%, but also things that we've already addressed ahead of entering the year here. So, the footnotes will tell you that. You get the 13% there. As Hamid said, start with the 67% lease mark-to-market.

We've got 10% market rent growth of the year. You assume we'll get that halfway, halfway through the year. One thing we see people get wrong is that it will take you to a certain amount of rent change. We actually get half that rent change this year.

You get half of '22's rent change as well. That's a mathematic thing that you need to be mindful of, given the quantum of rent change we're talking about lately. That will all get you to close to 9%. And then, we've backed off, you know, an assumption on occupancy loss, which we couldn't point to right now but just feels prudent in the environment. So, we've taken our guidance down there a bit.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vince Tibone with Green Street. Please go ahead.

Vince James Tibone
Analyst at Green Street Advisors

Hi. Good morning. How should we think about the organic same-store NOI growth for the legacy Duke portfolio in '23, given then that, you know, outside of guidance? Is it lower than guidance for the legacy PLD portfolio in the same ballpark? Just given the size of the Duke deal, any color you could share would be helpful.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Well, it will be lower for one reason anyway, which is that they started at the higher level of occupancy. So, putting even rents aside, on a same-store basis, there's less opportunity. They generally had longer-term leases because they generally had bigger spaces. So, that affects the mix. But, Tim?

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

Well, and I think an important thing to remember here, and we've seen some people not have this entirely correct in modeling, is just understanding that on a GAAP basis, there will be very little same-store. There's potential for some. But because we market the leases up to market now at close, on a net effective basis, there will be very little same-store growth and as contemplated in our guidance. On a cash basis, I expect it would look quite similar to Prologis.

Vince James Tibone
Analyst at Green Street Advisors

That's really helpful.

Timothy D. Arndt
Chief Financial Officer at Prologis

Great.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from --

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

By the way, if I can continue that. One thing that you didn't ask, but it's important in this context, and Dan can elaborate, is that the rental performance of the Duke portfolio on the few spaces that have come up for releasing or were in progress during the time we were doing the transaction are trending significantly higher than what we had underwritten. Dan, can you quantify that?

Dan Letter
Global Head, Capital Deployment at Prologis

Yeah, I'd actually go as far as saying we expect to outperform in the operating portfolio to the tune -- you know, 11% to 13%, call it. Now, 8% of that's going to come from market rent growth. So, really 3% to 5% of that comes from just operating that portfolio in the Prologis platform.

Operator

Next question comes from Tom Catherwood with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Thomas Catherwood
Analyst at BTIG Research

Thanks. Tim, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that the outlook for '23 assumes a recession. And if we look back to previous recessionary cycles, you know, usually, we get declines in consumption, which drives lower demand for industrial space. But we've also never started a cycle with kind of persistently low vacancy like we have right now or tailwinds from e-commerce and supply chain reconfiguration. So, kind of within that backdrop of assuming a recession, how do you think it could be different this time and kind of what you have baked into your numbers for that for '23?

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

So, given that Tim was in kindergarten when the cycle started, Tim and I are a little bit different on our recession outlook, but I don't think it matters. I think Tim would tell you that if there's a recession, there's a very mild recession. And my bet would be that we wouldn't have a recession, but it would be close to zero GDP growth for a while. So, you know, call it recession or no recession, but the same outcome.

I think what's different about the other cycles, and I say that with a lot of dislike for the word -- for the phrase that's different this time is that there were really two situations where we had negative absorption in the U.S., which is where we have data. One was on thehill.com. And there you had a high vacancy rate. On top of it, you had a very low utilization rate because there was a lot of capital for these dot.com, particularly e-commerce retailers, and they were taking space way ahead of demand.

So, there was a lot of shadow space, too. So, when you add those two, it was a very, very high vacancy type of market during that time. So, 2000, 2001 time frame. The next time you had a pretty significant negative absorption was 2008, 2009, and we all know the reasons for that.

And there, you also started with a significantly higher vacancy rate. I think it was 7% or 8% before the music stopped. And all I can tell you is that Prologis, the old Prologis with the fund alone had 52 million square feet of vacant spec space that they had to lease. I think AMB at the time had like 8 million or 9 million square feet.

So, nothing like you're talking about here, particularly given the different scale of the company and how at least we're starting out. Now, even in that situation, where we're normally at about 95% occupancy, we went down to about 91% in both cases. So, I don't see anything near that. I mean, it's mathematically impossible.

Even if absorption goes to zero right now and we don't lease any more of the underdevelopment spec space and absorption goes to zero, I mean, you know, you will be under 5% vacancy, which used to be considered a great strong market and the capital up. We didn't have this kind of mark-to-market. I mean the mark-to-markets in those days were in the mid single-digit range. And now, we're talking about 70% almost. So, a very different picture.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc. Please state your question.

Todd Thomas
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yeah. Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I just had a question about market rents, actually, so the 10% market run forecast in the U.S. Can you just discuss that or break it out a little bit for us in terms of coastal versus noncoastal in terms of your expectations, just in the context of, you know, supply growth that you're seeing and the demand backdrop in general?

Christopher N. Caton
Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research at Prologis

Yeah. Hey, it's Chris Caton. So, indeed, we expect 10% in the U.S. That's going to vary. You know, typical spread between coastal, noncoastal is 300 to 500 basis points. At least that's where it was running, say, pre-pandemic. And we expect a wider spread in the current environment. So, whether you look at vacancy, whether you look at the under construction pipeline, whether you look at the momentum in pricing in the back half of last year, including fourth quarter, that leads you to conclude on the coastal outperformance continuing at a greater than historical average in 2023.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Please state your question.

Ronald Kamdem
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hey, I just want to go back to some of the comments on the third-party management. I think you talked about valuations being down 7% in the back half of last year and potentially continuing into this year, and the redemptions potentially ending in the first two quarters of the year. Just want to get a sense. Any more color how you're thinking about that? Is it because the valuations have been repriced that you expect sort of the redemptions to stop? What should we be looking for to get more confidence in that? Thanks.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah, there are two things that usually drive a redemption request. One is sort of the denominator effect and people needing the liquidity. And two is some folks want to arbitrage the lag between, you know, how quickly the public markets adjust and the backward-looking appraisal process. In our experience in past downturns, the second has taken about three quarters to be fully reflected in appraisals.

So, we really don't want to disadvantage one group of investors. By the way, the vast majority of our investors, 95% of them, because, you know, a couple of points of people want to arbitrage that difference. So, we want to make sure the valuations are right before those things transact. We think Europe has actually adjusted quicker than the U.S.

And that's why we think there's maybe another quarter to go before Europe fully adjusts. So, we're committed to taking care of those redemptions in the next quarter. And we think the U.S. may take another quarter to adjust, and we'll take care of those in the second quarter.

Here is what's important and people don't get about the structure of our funds. First of all, our leverage is in the low 20% range on these funds. So, there is boatloads of liquidity in these funds to basically be able to handle any redemption requests, any reasonable redemption requests. And secondly, we started with a queue, and we started with some cash on hand.

So, again, there are lots of sources for addressing those redemption requests. I think you should assume that redemptions that have been effective as of the end of this quarter will by and large be taken care of by the middle of the year and sooner in Europe. So, you can model that math beyond that.

Now, I'll tell you one other thing, which is kind of interesting. Prologis could be a buyer up in these funds. And in fact, even in the global financial crisis, where the old AMB was in a tighter spot with respect to leverage, we actually stepped up and bought, on very attractive terms with adjusted values, couple of hundred million dollars of real estate. And, you know, we actually offered it to our outside investors first, and then we stepped in and bought it. And you know what? The next quarter, all the redemptions went away because people realized that -- you know, the people who know the most about this portfolio are buyers at this price.

So, it's really about getting the values right. And, you know, we started writing down these portfolios a quarter or two ago, and our appraisal process is independent. We have nothing to do about it. And that's very, very different than some of the redemption situations that we've all been reading about.

Operator

Thanks. Our next question comes from Camille Bonnel with Bank of America. Please state your question.

Camille Bonnel
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Hi. Good morning. On your development guidance, can you give us some color on how much conservatism is built into your development starts? And also, you're expecting another year of strong stabilizations. What assumptions are you making in terms of timing of these projects? And is any of the increase in guidance driven by projects from last year taking longer to complete due to longer construction timelines?

Dan Letter
Global Head, Capital Deployment at Prologis

This is Dan. Let me start with this year's development start guidance. We're coming off our largest year of starts ever. And just given the macro headlines, we decided to take a little bit more balanced approach, where we slowed our starts at the end of last year.

We don't expect to start up in earnest until the last half of this year. We think the buildup of business will pick up at the same time. So, call it conservatism, I call it discipline. And just feel really good about our approach given the volumes over the last year or two.

And then, stabilization next year, stabilization this year, Tim mentioned it earlier. We think we can outperform what we have in the books right now. Demand continues to be strong. We talked about the development starts plummeting in the marketplace in the fourth quarter.

We think they're going to be slower in the first half of the year. And we think that bodes well for absorption in the last half of this year into next year. So, we feel very good about our guidance.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah, there's not been a material delay in any of our construction projects if you look at them on an aggregated basis. So, that has not shifted stabilizations from '22 to '23 or anything like that. Yeah, I can't even think of an example that comes close. And even on the cost side, you know, because we've been thoughtful about procurement and securing some of these type of supplies ahead of time, that's been actually something that we use as a competitive advantage in marketing to build-to-suits because we got a bunch of steel, and we got a bunch of our air conditioning units and electric panels.

And things that are in short supply are already sitting in our warehouse waiting to be deployed into our land bank. So, no, there's nothing funny going on about that. And by the way, the stabilizations are not just a function of completion of construction, but also leasing being stabilized at 90% or more. And that factor hasn't delayed stabilizations either.

We've been leasing actually ahead of plan to this day. And I think we'll -- I expect to continue to do that.

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please state your question.

John Kim
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you. On the subject of fund redemptions, there are some unlisted funds or nontraded REITs with a different leverage profile than yours, different investor base that are seeing a significant amount of redemption requests. And I was wondering if you anticipate this will lead to increased asset sales on the block and potentially some more opportunities for you on the acquisition side.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

I hope it does. I'm not optimistic that it will because, you know, if you look at even the denominator problem for most institutions and the fact that they generally have to reduce their exposure to real estate, they're likely not going to want to reduce their exposure to industrial. So, I think -- and with these -- most of the open-end funds, where they're mixed, they're different property types, the industrial is what's holding up their performance. So, for them to dispose of those would put them in an even a more difficult situation.

So, I don't think there will be a lot of forced sellers in industrial because to the extent that you're dealing with a leverage issue or liquidity issue, if you sell your highest yielding asset, you keep tightening the coverage noose around your neck. So, as much as I'd like to, I don't think we'll see a lot of that. I think where we could see opportunities is actually within our own open-end fund availabilities. If the redemptions continue on, we think the values are good.

First, we'll offer that to all the third-party investors. And then, we'll step in and buy. And we like that real estate. We know it well, and we operate it. And if it's priced right, we're all buyers. No problem.

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC. Please state your question.

Mike Carroll
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Thanks. I guess, I mean, I understand that PLD and the industrial space in general are pretty well positioned in the current environment despite the uncertainty. But is there anything that you're watching out for or any specific risks that you foresee for this space here in the next year plus or so?

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah, we are watching everything really carefully. I mean, I'm not -- believe me, we've been through enough cycles, and enough weird things can happen that none of us predict that we want to be vigilant. That's why we're starting out the year with very conservative assumptions and things that we can deliver. I mean, I think even on this basis, we're going to, I think, put up unbelievably good numbers.

I mean, who can think of almost double-digit kind of returns or growth off of such strong growth, 14% per year earnings growth, consistently for the last three years? So, I think the arrow is up. But, yeah, I mean, you know, nobody predicted Putin going into Europe last year. Or it's usually the stuff that you don't -- you can't predict. I mean, am I worried about inflation really tanking our numbers? No.

Am I really worried about recession tanking our numbers? No. Am I worried about e-commerce going out the window and people going back to shopping the old way without that percentage going up? No. I'm not worried about those things. But I am worried about things that I don't even know what to worry about, if you get my drift there.

Anyway, so, yeah, there's always bad stuff that can happen that are out of the realm of normal projections.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please state your question.

Mike Mueller
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Yeah. Hi. What are the anticipated yields for your 2023 development starts?

Dan Letter
Global Head, Capital Deployment at Prologis

The anticipated -- this is Dan. The anticipated yields are actually up slightly, but still in the low 6's, 6.1-ish, 6.2-ish.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Powell with Barclays. Please state your question.

Anthony Powell
Analyst at Barclays

Hi. Good morning. Question on utilization, which increased in the quarter. What drove that growth, given all the headlines we see about port volumes, whatnot declining? And how big of a driver of the higher utilization is for your outlook this year, given the strong outlook this year?

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah. I don't think utilization actually moved that much. I mean, the peak utilization ever, all time, was 87%. And I think that one point is well within the sampling bias that can take place because, you know, it's not a perfect data set.

It's a sample of a large data set. So, I don't think there's a meaningful trend in -- certainly not a decelerating trend in utilization. With respect to port volumes, I think port volumes are pretty meaningless in the last -- really, since COVID started because there were so many, you know, fits and starts and, you know, things being in the wrong place and all that. And, yeah, the West Coast ports have lower volumes today than they did before.

But the East Coast and Gulf ports are getting a lot more volume than they did before. So, on an aggregate basis, port volumes are just fine. And if you look at the lag that it takes, you know, too many empty containers on one side of the ocean, you know, and factories shutting down on the other side of the ocean and all that, I think until the market normalizes, you can't really draw any conclusions from port volumes. So, I don't see any either one of those two trends affecting demand.

Chris, do you want to --

Christopher N. Caton
Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research at Prologis

Yeah, I'll just build on that by saying, you know, two things are also happening. One is market vacancies in the U.S. are 3.2%, 3.3% lower in Europe. That, in its own right, creates some pent-up demand.

And so, there's a need to push utilization within the facilities. And then, second, look, inventories are up 15% on a year-on-year basis, on a nominal basis, and 9%, 10% on a real basis. So, there is real structural demand lifting new demand, as well as in-place customers.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah. Notwithstanding that increase in real inventories, we still think we're less than half way toward equilibrium level of inventory, about 45% of the way there. So, we think there's a lot of tailwind behind inventories, too.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo. Please state your question.

Blaine Heck
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Great. Thanks. So, related to that last question and your comments on that progress toward equilibrium inventory, can you just talk about your recent conversations with customers? You know, what's your sense for how they're balancing the investment need and capex spend against concerns about the economic slowdown or recession and higher overall cost of capital?

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Yeah, I'll pitch it to Mike for more detailed comments on this, but my sense is that customers don't have quite as much FOMO as they did before. In other words, they're not in the horde mentality of let's go get the space because if we don't, somebody else will and all that. I think the market has rationalized with respect to pace of leasing demand. And people are being more thoughtful about how they go about taking their -- taking space because forget about what they pay us in rent.

I mean, every time you open a new large warehouse, there's a lot of capex that goes into it and all that. Real estate is the least of your worries. It's all the other stuff that you have to put in. So, I think people are cautious, but they also realize, particularly on the e-com side, that, you know, this was a theoretical threat, you know, before the COVID.

Now, they see what really happened to their business during COVID. So, they're very anxious to build out their full e-commerce supply chain, which is oftentimes a different one than their brick-and-mortar supply chain. So, I would say demand has broadened. It's much less all about Amazon.

It's much broader than that. But it's pretty strong. Is it the strongest it's ever been? No, it's not as strong as 2021. But compared to any 10-year period you want to look at, we would consider this very strong market.

Mike?

Mike Curless
Chief Customer Officer at Prologis

Yeah, I would just pile on. I mean, on a net basis, the activity is still very strong. Decision timelines definitely have stretched out, and people are being more cautious. But remember, these structural configurations we've been talking about for two or three years continue to march on, perhaps, at a bit of a slower rate.

But ultimately, I think it comes down to the fear of not having the right space when you need it a year from now is overriding taking space just a little bit too early. So, broadly, we feel pretty good about this overall activity.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi. Please state your question.

Craig Allen Mailman
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Hey, guys. I just want to follow up on these demand discussions because this is a constant question I get from clients here. And maybe it's more of a Chris question, but, Hamid, feel free to jump in, too, just in terms of in this era of low vacancies, where really there's nothing at least a net absorption is not necessarily the best leading indicator of demand. I mean, what are you guys using at least to kind of use as your forward-looking indicator on demand or structure, something that the market could look to? Because it just seems like retentions are still high, availability is low, construction could fall off.

But everyone is talking about inventories being higher, utilization being higher, so people needing less of the space. But it's just -- from your commentary, seems like this is not really filtering through to what you guys are seeing. And just some thoughts there. Then, you know, related to that, Chris, I mean, what would it take for market rents to actually turn negative? Because that's a question I get a lot as well. And I'm just kind of curious in your modeling, kind of what inputs would have to really turn to get that from, you know, the positive 10% you're seeing to somewhere below zero.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Okay, let me start, and I'm sure Chris can give much more color. I would state this. In 40 years of doing this, this is the biggest disconnect that I've seen between the macro economy and the prospects for our business. Usually, those two things are much more aligned.

And this time around, there just appear to be completely disconnected for a variety of reasons that we talked about ad nauseum. So, I think where pricing goes away is vacancies going to 7% to 8% and staying there. And if you do the math on that, you need another, in the U.S., I don't know, 2 billion or 3 billion square feet of un-leased construction coming online. And you can't do it overnight. Maybe a billion, something. You know, we can do the math. But it's a big number. And you're not going to keep doing that.

If the space that you -- if the first 100 million feet doesn't lease, you're not going to do that. And by the way, this cycle, you have a couple of big players in the business that have much more to gain from the fundamentals of the business being stronger, rents being stronger, than a few bucks they may make on additional development. So, there is an economic incentive to be disciplined. In prior cycles, mostly driven by merchant builders and private developers, they don't really care what the rental market was.

They just wanted to build the product and sell it to somebody else, and that would be their problem. Today, those two sites are connected to one another. So, I think the motivations are really different. And absent a nuclear war type of scenario, I just don't see vacancy rates going to a level that will lead to a reduction in rents.

It's either going to be a demand collapse or a supply explosion, and I don't see either one of them happening. The other thing I would say is that we are -- we lease a million square feet on a daily basis. Let's get our heads around that, a million square feet on a daily basis. You know, we throw these big numbers around without really fully appreciating what the scale of that is.

I mean, that is 10x the amount of space anybody else leases in any sector in real estate. So, by watching these customers and their behavior, obviously, we'll figure out if some bad stuff is about to happen and won't be waiting for the quarterly report to analyze that. So, Chris, do you have specifics?

Christopher N. Caton
Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research at Prologis

Yeah, a couple of specifics. I would lead with our proprietary data leads us to these conclusions. So, for example, our sales force pipeline. If we look at the vacancy that we do have, 46% has deals working.

That's in line or above the average that we've experienced through COVID. To say nothing of the conversations that Mike and Scott and our customer led solutions team have. In terms of public data, which I think I heard you ask about, Craig, we do publish our IBI survey and our utilization data. And so, figures like 60 on our IBI, it's a diffusion index, so that's consistent with this good or great tone that the team has struck, and 86% on utilization, which was discussed earlier, are ways that you can see that in the marketplace.

And then, as it relates to what it would take for rents to fall, Hamid described it very specifically, and I'd add one piece of data that I don't see commonly discussed in the marketplace but is important to know, which is development starts rather than development completions. Starts in the U.S., we're off by a third in the fourth quarter relative to their 2022 trend. And on the continent in Europe, they were off by 45%. So, we're seeing a sharp marking to market of the capital market environment, the valuation environment, and what those buildings might be worth for some of those other folks building buildings.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

By the way, banks are a lot more disciplined because now, they have risk-based capital requirements. So, putting out a lot of construction loans on buildings that don't lease like used to happen in prior cycles is less likely to happen. So, I think the market is generally smarter. There's a lot more data. Conversations like we're having today never used to take place two decades ago. So, the cycles are much more amplified. I think it's pretty hard for that to happen. But something can come out of left field.

I'm not discounting that possibility. Something really bad could come out of left field and change all this, but I just can't think of what that thing would be. But none of us predicted the pandemic, I don't think, so, you know, things can happen.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Vince Tibone with Green Street. Please state your question.

Vince James Tibone
Analyst at Green Street Advisors

Hi. Thanks for taking my follow-up. I just wanted to get any color on recent market rent growth and how that may differ between suite side. Like, are you seeing any differences in performance between bulk buildings and, you know, smaller, more infill facilities?

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

I would generally tell you that the smaller spaces are having a tougher time to the extent that anybody is having a tougher time. But Chris is looking up the specifics. They're not radically different. But why don't we do this? Why don't we go to the next -- you got it? Okay.

Vince James Tibone
Analyst at Green Street Advisors

Yeah.

Christopher N. Caton
Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research at Prologis

Hey, no, glad to help you out here. First off, market rent growth had great momentum at the end of the year with 5% growth in the U.S., 3% in Europe. When we look at rent change, which is a great way to understand performance and suite size, it's strong across the board. But in fact, late in the year, we saw an improvement in those smaller units, which might be where your question is coming from.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Oh, yeah.

Christopher N. Caton
Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research at Prologis

So, it's diverse.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

Okay. That's different than I would have guessed. And I bet you it's because there was more available space to absorb in those categories. Those categories were less leased.

And by the way, we have them, too. I mean, we have some smaller than 100,000 square-foot units. So, I would say, occupancy was a little bit lower, so there was more room to lease product than the higher end.

Christopher N. Caton
Senior Vice President & Global Head of Research at Prologis

If we flip it to submarkets and we look at, say, infill, which tend to have those smaller units, infill outperformed in the U.S. by 400 basis points last year. So, say 34% in the U.S. in the infill submarkets versus 30% for the whole of the United States.

Operator

And our next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please state your question.

Jamie Feldman
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Great. Thank you. Just a quick follow-up from Blaine and myself. So, where do you expect to make the most progress on the essentials business in '23? And how does that factor into your guidance and earnings? And then, also, if you could just, say, you know, where you think cap rates are today versus, you know, the peak this cycle, how much they've moved. Thank you.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

So, two things. I think the essential business in terms of percentage growth, I think our mobility business would be the biggest because it's the smallest right now to start with. So, any growth will be the biggest. But in terms of dollar contribution, I would say solar and storage are coming on the strongest today. And operations is a close second behind. I'll pitch it to Gary if he has any more to say about that after this. Second part of the question was -- oh, cap rates. So, cap rates are really misleading.

So, we got to be careful about that cap rates at market, assuming that you had a building a year and a half ago at market and you have a building at market today, I would guess it's 50 to 75 basis points, maybe 100 basis points, Okay? It's, call it, 50 to 100 basis points. But you've had all this rental growth in between. So, the observed cap rate for the same building this year versus last year, with rents that are higher by, I don't know, 10%, 15% or something, would not have moved as much. So -- and if you get into weird situations, like some building that was leased five years ago and it comes on the market, and the in-place rent is less than half of what market is, that building could have a lower cap rate than it would have had, you know, a year ago.

IRR is what's really important based on reasonable assumptions. And my guess is that if I were going to pick a number, I would say low to -- low seven, 7.25-ish in the U.S., and maybe a little bit lower than that in Europe, with growth of, say, 4%-ish across a 10-year projection. Something like that, approximately. Gary, anything on --

Gary Anderson
Chief Operating Officer at Prologis

I think you hit it exactly, Hamid. I mean, just in 2023, our mix is going to be about 50% operations and about 50% energy and mobility. The growth rate, obviously, mobility is going to be much higher because it's coming off of basically a zero base. Where are we investing? We're investing in our energy and mobility businesses.

And that's where we have proven our capability because that's where we see the most significant growth over '25 and beyond. But I mean, just to put a sort of stake in this, we are very, very convicted about the potential for these businesses. We're on track to generate our 300 million in revenues and tax benefits by 2025, which we've talked about before. And that is going to deliver about $0.25 per share in FFO.

And that would be a little bit above 100 -- that'll be about 100 basis points of growth per year compared to our 2019 investor day estimates of about 50 basis points. So, net-net, look, we are in great shape. That business is growing right on plan. And we're going to continue to make investments in that business. And this year, it's going to be in mobility and energy.

Hamid Moghadam
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prologis

By the way, that 2025 number that Gary just mentioned is going to be with capturing maybe 15%, 20% of the total opportunity within our portfolio. So, there'll be a huge runway for growth. And frankly, we're beginning to see more deals out of our own platform because customers are taking us to buildings that they leased from other people to do the same level of service to them in those other situations. So, I can't even begin to quantify that out-of-platform opportunity.

So, we're really excited about our essentials business. Okay, thanks. I think we're at the top of the hour. I know we have one more question, but maybe we can take that outside the call, Anthony, with our apologies. But thank you for your interest in the company, and we look forward to seeing you next quarter. Take care.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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