DOW Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 26, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Q2 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations' Vice President, Pankaj Gupta, Mr.

Operator

Gupta, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Thank you for joining Dow's 4th quarter earnings call. This call is available via webcast and we have prepared slides to supplement our comments today. They are posted on the Investor Relations section of Dow's website and through the link to our webcast. I am Pankaj Gupta, Dow Investor Relations' Vice President and joining me today on the call are Jim Fitterling, Dow's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Howard Underleiter, President and Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 1

Please read the forward looking Statement disclaimer contained in the earnings news release and slides. During our call, we will make forward looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance and results may differ materially from our forward looking statements. Dow's Forms 10Q and 10 ks include detailed discussions of principal risks and uncertainties, which may cause such differences. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items.

Speaker 1

We will also refer to non GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure And other associated disclosures is contained in the Dow earnings release, in the slides that supplement our comments today as well as on the Dow website. On Slide 2, you will see the agenda of our call. Jim will begin by reviewing our Q4 results and operating segment performance. Howard will then share our outlook and modeling guidance.

Speaker 1

And to close, Jim will then outline our competitive position for long term value creation. Following that, we will take your questions. Now, let me turn the call over to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Pankaj. Beginning on Slide 3, In the Q4, TeamDAO continued to take proactive actions to navigate slower GDP growth, challenging energy markets and customer destocking. We proactively lowered our operating rates to effectively manage working capital, implemented operational mitigation plans and cost saving measures and prioritized higher value products where demand remained resilient, including in functional polymers and performance silicones, as well as in mobility, renewable energy and pharma end markets. These actions combined with our continued focus on cash enabled us to deliver cash flow from operations of $2,100,000,000 in the quarter. Cash flow conversion was 166 percent and we returned $620,000,000 to shareholders.

Speaker 2

Dow's cash generation reflects our continued focus on operational and financial discipline, which was important as we navigated an extremely dynamic year end 2022 as you see on Slide 4. In the first half of the year, we capitalized on strong demand across our diverse Global portfolio, while leveraging our derivative and feedstock flexibility and low cost positions to mitigate higher raw material and energy costs. In the second half of the year, economic conditions deteriorated, driven by record inflation, rising interest rates, ongoing pandemic lockdowns in China and continued geopolitical tensions. In the face of these evolving market dynamics, Dow was resilient, generating cash flow from operations of $7,500,000,000 for the full year, while executing our disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation. We delivered returns on invested capital of 15%, Above our 13% across the economic cycle target as we prioritize higher return, lower risk and faster payback investments.

Speaker 2

We achieved credit rating and outlook upgrades as a result of our strengthened balance sheet and we have no substantive debt maturities due until 2027. And we returned a total of $4,300,000,000 to shareholders, including $2,300,000,000 in share repurchases and $2,000,000,000 in dividends. At the same time, we continue to advance our decarbonize and grow strategy and accelerate circularity to create long term shareholder value as we meet growing customer demand for more sustainable solutions. I'm proud of how TeamDAO continues to deliver for our customers, drive shareholder value and support our communities As we progress toward our 2,050 carbon neutrality target and you can see a number of those highlights depicted on this slide. Now turning to our operating segment performance on Slide 5.

Speaker 2

In the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, Net sales were $6,100,000,000 down 16% year over year as price gains across all regions and functional polymers were more than offset by lower polyethylene and olefin prices. Volume declines were driven primarily by lower olefins and packaging demand in Europe, which was partly offset by resilient global demand for functional polymers. Sequentially, net sales were down 17%, driven by lower hydrocarbon sales and polyethylene prices. Operating EBIT for the segment was $655,000,000 compared to $1,400,000,000 in the year ago period, primarily due to lower integrated polyethylene margins. Sequentially, operating EBIT was down $130,000,000 as lower raw material and energy costs We're more than offset by lower polyethylene prices and operating rates.

Speaker 2

Moving to the Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, Net sales were $3,700,000,000 down 20% from the year ago period. Volumes declined primarily due to lower demand in Europe for industrial, consumer durables and building and construction applications. Sequentially, net sales were down 10% As seasonal demand increases for deicing fluid were more than offset by declines in building and construction, consumer durables and industrial applications. Operating EBIT for the segment was $164,000,000 compared to $595,000,000 in the year ago period, driven by lower demand and increasing energy costs, particularly in Europe. Sequentially, Operating EBIT margins expanded by 40 basis points as lower energy costs versus the prior quarter were partly offset by lower volumes.

Speaker 2

And in the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, we reported net sales of $2,100,000,000 down 20% year over year As local price gains for performance silicones and architectural coatings were more than offset by lower prices for siloxanes and acrylic monomers. Volume was down as resilient demand in mobility was more than offset by declines primarily in building and construction end markets. Sequentially, net sales were down 22% due to seasonally lower demand for coatings, industrial and building and construction applications, as well as local price declines for siloxanes and acrylic monomers. Operating EBIT for the segment was a loss of $130,000,000 compared to earnings of $295,000,000 in the year ago period due to local price declines primarily in siloxane And lower operating rates in the quarter. Sequentially, operating EBIT declined $432,000,000 driven by lower prices, demand and operating rates.

Speaker 2

I'll now turn it over to Howard to review our outlook and actions on Slide 6.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. We expect the market dynamics we experienced in late 2022 to continue into early 2023. While the pace of inflation has moderated, overall cost levels remain elevated, which has continued to trigger tighter monetary policy in most parts of the world and is weighing on both business investment and consumer sentiment. The majority of economic forecasts are calling for slower GDP growth Globally relative to 2022, although dynamics differ by region, with most regions except Europe still forecasting positive year on year growth. In the U.

Speaker 3

S, we see signs of moderating demand and the continuation of year end destocking trends early in the quarter. Building and construction end markets have been particularly impacted by inflation and rising interest rates with housing starts declining by more than 20% year over year in December. Manufacturing PMI contracted for the 3rd consecutive month of 48, while light vehicle sales in the U. S. Were down for the full year by 8 percentage points.

Speaker 3

Easing inflation is leading to improving consumer confidence, albeit from depressed levels in late 2022, while consumer spending remains resilient. In Europe, we expect demand to remain constrained despite recent improvements in regional energy prices. While the move to 5 year highs in gas storage It is a positive sign changing weather forecasts are leading to volatility in the futures markets. High inflation and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on consumer spending and industrial production. December manufacturing PMI has been contracting since July and construction PMI reached its lowest level since May.

Speaker 3

In China, while we're very encouraged by recent shifts in COVID policy to ease restrictions and open up borders, we expect these actions to take some time to This is an area we're closely monitoring as it has the potential to provide a source of significant demand recovery following the Lunar New Year. And in Latin America, overall economic growth is expected to slow driven by political tensions, high inflation and restrictive monetary policy. Given this dynamic backdrop, we will continue to take a region by region, business by business approach to managing our operations and adapting our Turning to Slide 7, as we highlighted at our last earnings call, we are proactively responding to the current Economic environment with a playbook of targeted actions to deliver $1,000,000,000 in cost savings. This begins with maintaining a low cost to serve operating model Implementing actions to optimize our labor and service costs, including a global workforce reduction of approximately 2,000 roles. We will continue to increase productivity with end to end process improvements now that our digital foundation is in place.

Speaker 3

And we will also shut down select assets while further evaluating additional actions across our global asset base, particularly in Europe to ensure long term competitiveness while also enhancing our cost efficiency. These structural actions are to deliver a total of $500,000,000 in EBITDA savings this year. Additionally, we will deliver another $500,000,000 of savings through actions to maximize cash flow while reducing our operational expenses. This includes decreasing turnaround spend, purchased raw materials, logistics and utilities costs. Importantly, we will do this while maintaining safe and reliable operations, which as always remains our top priority.

Speaker 3

These proactive actions will optimize our cost structure in response to the near term macroeconomic uncertainty, while maintaining our long term value creation focus. Turning to our outlook for the Q1 on Slide 8. In the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, improving logistics And lower operating rates led to the 5th consecutive month of inventory declines for U. S. Polyethylene in December.

Speaker 3

Reduced global operating rates are continuing to drive feedstock and input costs down with ongoing destocking through the value chain impacting functional polymer strength and demand in Europe. While lower turnaround costs will be a sequential tailwind, we expect lower demand levels in Asia to impact equity earnings And lower non recurring licensing activity from the prior quarter will impact earnings. In total, we expect a $75,000,000 headwind for the segment sequentially. In the Industrial, Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, demand remains stable for energy markets and we're monitoring demand for de icing fluids with a warmer than average winter. However, inflationary pressures in contracting PMIs continue to impact industrial demand and we expect lower seasonal volumes in building disruption end markets.

Speaker 3

We also anticipate an approximately $25,000,000 headwind due to a third party outage, which is causing a supply disruption on the U. S. Gulf Coast From later storm Elliott. In the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, we expect demand recovery for performance silicones following year end customer destocking, as well as improved supply availability and lower costs. However, we also anticipate lower siloxane pricing in the quarter as we continue to see pressure from increased industry We expect higher planned maintenance turnaround costs in the segment at our Deer Park Acrylic Monomers site and Performance Monomers.

Speaker 3

All in, we anticipate a $25,000,000 tailwind for the segment. In total, we expect the Q1 to be in line with the 4th quarter performance with the $75,000,000 in discrete headwinds I mentioned. Turning to the full year, we're continuing to provide our best estimates of several income statement and cash flow drivers. I'll highlight a few notable year over year inputs. We expect lower equity earnings in the year down approximately $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 Total turnaround spending is anticipated to be down by $300,000,000 as we implement our playbook of cost savings actions, while maintaining safe and reliable operations.

Speaker 3

We expect share count to remain relatively flat as we plan to continue covering dilution. And finally, we anticipate increasing our Capital expenditures to $2,200,000,000 well within our DNA of $2,800,000,000 as we continue to advance our higher return, faster payback projects and continue to execute on our decarbonizing growth strategy. Overall, the macroeconomic backdrop remains dynamic in 2023. We see the potential for additional upside from higher oil to gas spreads, reopening in China following the Lunar New Year and easing inflation and supply chain constraints. We also continue to pay close attention to a range of indicators, including pressure from higher interest rates on building and construction, PMI levels, global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics.

Speaker 3

Dow remains well positioned based on our global footprint, Feedstock flexibility and the sustainable solutions we provide for our customers. We will continue to leverage these competitive advantages to deliver long term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Howard. Moving to Slide 10. While the near term environment remains challenging, We continue to see attractive secular trends across our market verticals of packaging, infrastructure, consumer and mobility. With resilient cash flow generation and a strong credit profile, we are well positioned to continue advancing our decarbonize and grow strategy to capitalize on these opportunities. We delivered on our growth investment commitments outlined in early 2022.

Speaker 2

These investments are expected to collectively generate $2,000,000,000 in run rate EBITDA by the middle of this decade. In Packaging and Specialty Plastics, We mechanically completed and began final commissioning of our FCDH unit in Louisiana in the 4th quarter. This breakthrough propylene technology features up to 25% lower capital outlay, while reducing energy usage in greenhouse gas emissions by up to 20% versus conventional PDH units. In industrial intermediates and infrastructure, Our latest alkoxylates capacity investment in the United States was completed in the Q3 of 2022 And our next in Europe will be completed in the Q1 of this year. These projects will further serve high value markets in home care and pharma And are just to start, our next wave of Alcoxit's capacity investments remain on track.

Speaker 2

In fact, Dow has already successfully begun locking in Supply contracts with several consumer and pharmaceutical customers to support the next wave of growth. And in Performance Materials and Coatings, We completed 16 downstream silicone debottleneck projects in 2022 to meet demand for high performance building and construction, Personal Care and Mobility Applications. Additionally, we accelerated the delivery of our digitalization initiatives And now expect the full $300,000,000 run rate EBITDA to fully materialize by the end of 2023, well ahead of our prior target of 2025. As a result, we anticipate our digital sales to comprise 50% of total revenue by 2025. Looking forward, we expect to continue growth investments in our global operations, including key capital investments in higher margin polyurethane systems and additional alkoxylates capacity, incremental projects to expand downstream high value ethylene derivative capacity and continued coatings and silicone debottlenecking projects.

Speaker 2

We will also continue progressing our operating investments to improve production capabilities and reliability as we shift our product mix toward higher growth and higher value markets. Turning to Slide 11, decarbonizing our assets And driving circularity remains a significant growth opportunity for Dow. We have a clear roadmap to reduce carbon emissions by another 5,000,000 We continue to invest in innovative renewable energy and efficiency technologies, Such as our collaborative program with Shell to electrically heat steam cracker furnaces, which is on track to start up in 2025. In Alberta, we reached a preliminary investment decision for our Path to 0 project and we are working with the Canadian government to confirm necessary incentives so that we can make a final investment decision by the end of this year. And our Ternusan 2,030 project Where we have a clear roadmap to reduce carbon emissions at the site by more than 40% by 2,030 is making progress as we secure partner and government agreements and subsidies.

Speaker 2

We are also advancing our transform the waste target to commercialize 3,000,000 metric tons of circular and renewable solutions annually by 2,030. By leveraging our pipeline of strategic partnerships To invest in innovative solutions and scale up production, we are well positioned to meet this growing customer demand In a disciplined and capital efficient manner. Most recently, Dow and WM announced a bold new collaboration to address Hard to recycle plastic films by enabling them to be placed directly into residential curbside recycling. By 2025, The program is expected to divert more than 120,000 metric tons of plastic film from landfills. We continue to see sustainability as essential for our long term earnings growth.

Speaker 2

Altogether by 2,030, We remain on track to deliver $3,000,000,000 in underlying EBITDA improvements, while reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 30% compared to our 2,005 baseline. Turning to Slide 12, the actions we've taken since spin to strengthen our balance sheet while improving our Financial flexibility and operating cash flow generation are enabling us to be more resilient as we deliver on Capital allocation priorities across the economic cycle. Our free cash flow performance is now more than tripled on a trailing 12 month basis. We substantially improved our liquidity position, ending the year with nearly $14,000,000,000 and through our disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation, we have significantly reduced our liability profile with a combined reduction of more than $11,000,000,000 And our net debt and underfunded pension position since spin. Closing on Slide 13, we have a clear playbook of actions to drive resilient performance in the near and long term.

Speaker 2

We have plans to achieve $1,000,000,000 in savings through targeted actions to increase efficiency and maintain a low cost structure that is best in class. We're maintaining a strong financial position With the continued focus on disciplined and balanced capital allocation and we're advancing our decarbonize and grow and circularity strategies, Delivering incremental run rate EBITDA improvements through the end of the decade, positioning us for economic recovery, while lowering our carbon dioxide emissions. As we leverage our competitive advantages, operational agility and focus on cash flow generation that has served us well since spin, we will continue to deliver long term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it

Speaker 1

back to Pankaj to open up the Q and A. Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q and A. Operator, please provide the Q and A instructions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everyone. Wondering if you could just unpack the outlook for Performance Materials and Coatings a little bit. And Sounds like there's just a lot of moving parts right now with weak China in the 4th quarter, but now reopening some issues with new supply coming into the market. So obviously, uncertainty about how far and how fast China will reopen, but could you give us sort of the range of outcomes For how this segment might recover as we move through the year, representing that it could be a wide range?

Speaker 2

Sure. Good morning, Vince. Thanks for the question. First, I think it's important to look back at the Q4 on PM and C and understand the And the Q4 coatings and performance monomers kind of got back to the normal 4th quarter seasonality that we would see, which a year ago was very different because we were Still recovering from all the supply disruptions from winter storm Yuri and everything else that was associated with that. So I think you'll see that they'll come back to a more normal season in 2023.

Speaker 2

And you also saw the impact of destocking. Destocking In the Q4 represented and this is across the businesses about 50% to 60% of the slowdown that we saw in the Q4. So I think the destocking is going to work itself through in the Q1. And then I think you'll see us get back to normal seasonality there. I do think positively on China for coatings and performance monomers.

Speaker 2

I do think we're seeing China opening up. We're not seeing issues with people coming to work. So I think we're optimistic that The government will probably try to stimulate the construction economy there and we'll start to see that take off through the year. On silicones and siloxanes, you had 2 impacts. 1 was the market impact of things slowing, which was the lower siloxane prices.

Speaker 2

That hit hardest in China, obviously, at the end of the year. The other one was self inflicted. We happen to have all three of the Silicone's pillar plants, the siloxanes pillar plants down at some point in the Q4, and that Lower operating rate really hurt us. They're all 3 back up and running. So I think that issue is behind us.

Speaker 2

So I would expect you'll start to see Siloxanes demand pick back up. We saw destocking in all the down Dream areas in silicones, personal care, home consumer goods And we also saw it obviously in building and construction. I think that will start to rebound as the year progresses.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning. Jim and Howard, given the recent decline in European natural gas prices, how are you thinking about the competitiveness of European operations going forward.

Speaker 2

Good morning, David. Very good question. Obviously, The European situation has been tough on all the European producers over this past year. In fact, if you think about the year over year performance for Dow for the full year, 60% of the decline in EBIT Was related to Europe and that energy situation. So this is very targeted.

Speaker 2

Incrementally, we saw a step change in the 4th quarter, obviously driven by the warmer winter and the inventory levels being back up. And they've done an admirable job, especially in Germany Switching away from Russian natural gas over to other sources. So that has helped. But we still have to Take a look at long term energy policies and work with the governments both EU and the member states on energy policies because we're a long way away Long term competitiveness in Europe. I would say the decisions we announced today around restructuring, Right now, we've looked at locations that are going to be challenged in any scenario long term and we'll take actions on those.

Speaker 2

But on large sites like our large cracker sites, we're still able to run cash flow positive And we're working hard on that energy situation. We'll continue to analyze that through this year and see what kind of work we can do with the governments there To make them more competitive long term.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Hasin Ahmed of Alembic Global. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning, Jim and Howard. A near term question around your guidance. First part of the question is, it Seems you guys, as I look at segment level guidance, you're guiding to Q1 EBITDA of 1,200,000,000 So first part of that question is, is that correct? And then part and parcel with that question, it seems that there are To $0.05 a pound price hike announcements for polyethylene in the U. S.

Speaker 6

For January February. And then obviously, we've seen these precipitous Declines in natural gas prices in Europe. So in this $1,200,000,000 EBITDA guidance that you guys have given for Q1, How much of those U. S. Polyethylene price hikes have you factored in?

Speaker 6

And how should we think about factoring in For Q1, those declines in natcash prices have occurred.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Hassan. Good question. Obviously, the outlook I would go back to integrated margins and take a look at our outlook and our expectations for integrated margins in the quarter. We think both in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And in Europe, they'll be up about $0.04 on integrated polyethylene margins. I would say, yes, natural gas costs have come off. We see a fair amount of benefit in that obviously from PMC, which is a large energy user and so that helps in a location like Shasta. But We only really are cracking natural gas to any big degree in Ternusen and some in Tarragona. So it has a little bit more limited effect there.

Speaker 2

Most of the rest of the economics are naphtha. I do think prices obviously Q4 to Q1, you've got to remember we start the quarter with a lower base and then we build up from there. So you're going to have some of that Lag effect that bakes into it, that's part of the guidance. And then we've also are expecting a little bit of destocking to Still continue into the quarter from a volume and operating rate perspective. So those are the big things that went into the guidance.

Speaker 2

Anything else You want to add Howard?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks Jim and Saum, thanks for the question. I would say you got the number right. I mean it's around 1.2. At a High level, there's really 3 moving parts.

Speaker 3

We expect Q1 on balance to look pretty much like Q4 With 3 discrete items. So as you know, our licensing business is lumpy. We had a large Sale in the Q4 of $75,000,000 that will not repeat in Q1. We're dealing with a third party Gas supplier in the Gulf Coast that's still having issues post winter storm Elliott that's impacting Our DIS business, which is in our Industrial Intermediates segment, that's a $25,000,000 sequential headwind. And then there's a $25,000,000 sequential positive Tailwind on lower turnaround expenses at the enterprise level, that's $50,000,000 tailwind in PNSP, But offset by a $25,000,000 headwind in PM and C, which is the Deer Park of the Deer Park asset.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from P. J. Dolevator of Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes, good morning. Jim, it seems like the European chemical capacity is now the High cost marginal capacity, instead of China and European capacity will be flexed With demand ups and downs, would you agree with that statement? And then in polyethylene, as you mentioned, China reopening is positive. Assuming that, do you expect somewhat of a snapback in polyethylene as a result? Or is it more of a gradual recovery in first half?

Speaker 2

Thank you. Yes. Good morning, P. J. Both good questions.

Speaker 2

I would say in Europe, I would think about it in 2 ways. First, I would think about the crackers. And I would say from a cracker economic standpoint, yes, on a naphtha basis, They have become incrementally the highest cost on the assets that are able to crack LPGs like Ternusan and Tarragona And where utility costs are lower like in Spain, they probably are fairly competitive with that Asian situation. So we haven't flexed as much up and down in Europe on the cracker operations. They've run at pretty steady rates throughout.

Speaker 2

We did flex up and down a bit when it got into our IINI business like Polyols, polyurethanes, isocyanates in Europe, where the energy cost at Stata and Germany are much, much higher. And so what you would see there is, we have some amount of that energy cost that is Very competitive and at a low rate, but then the increment is much higher. So we would run to that competitive rate. And I think that that is what still continues to be in the front window and the thing that we have to address with the government. I would say on second part of the question remind you, China.

Speaker 2

China. China recovery. Yes. Look, I think it's going to be positive. We had growth In the Q4 in Packaging and Specialty Plastics and Industrial Solutions, the places that were weakest for us were Anything related to building and construction, so polyurethanes, construction chemicals, coatings and monomers, Although that was fairly even quarter over quarter.

Speaker 2

And then consumer solutions because of the, as I mentioned, siloxanes prices and also our asset being down there. For the year, we had growth in Packaging and Specialty Plastics Consumer Solutions and Industrial Solutions, pretty good growth. And it was really construction businesses that were the most impacted. Construction is 25% of China's economy. It was off 40% last year.

Speaker 2

I'm certain that the government is going to try to stimulate And get that going again. I don't know how fast it will happen. But as I mentioned, we're not seeing any big COVID Spreads that are unmanageable right now, people are reporting into work and I'm hearing this from other CEOs as well. People reporting into work. Things are moving as expected.

Speaker 2

So I do expect we're going to see a little bit of positive move from China.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan, please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks very much. Two part question. Your local price in industrial intermediates and infrastructure was down 1%. Was that a Combination of puts and takes that is some chemicals were up and some chemicals were down. And Can you talk about MDI pricing?

Speaker 8

And then secondly, for Howard, what kind of Working capital benefits do you expect for 2023? Can you have a working capital inflow of $500,000,000 or $1,000,000,000 can you size that?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Jeff. Good questions. On IINI, we actually Had higher prices in polyurethanes and construction chemicals and it was volume that was the offset there. And remember that business has a fairly large footprint in Europe and the input costs So are much higher there and so that was part of it. We also saw that Industrial Solutions pricing held up Relatively well.

Speaker 2

And again, it was volume that slowed. So both of them had very resilient prices, But saw some volume slowdown and a little bit of currency impact. I'll let you answer the second part of that, Howard.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Look, in let's start with the Q4 on working capital. That was actually a tailwind versus the prior quarter, so sequentially of $1,000,000,000 And more than $400,000,000 versus the same quarter last year. I would say it really depends What's going to happen with feedstock costs and revenue growth, we're certainly expecting some volume growth as we move through the year, Especially with Jim's comments on China reopening and overall global GDP growth is still expected to be positive of around 1.5%, which should drive some industrial production and should drive some growth.

Speaker 3

You know that since spin, we've been very focused on working capital. We're continuing to target a couple of days of structural working capital improvement. So I would say at a bare minimum, we're looking at $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 of working capital improvement 2023 versus 2022. I'm very proud of The Dow team on their focus on cash flow, when you look at what we've been able to do since spin, we have actually improved our cash from ops Every single year 2019 through 2022 and last year was $7,500,000,000 of cash from ops And $400,000,000 better overall than 2021. And so one of the ways we do that is work on working capital.

Speaker 3

We're also working on other unique To Dow cash flow levers, I estimate that is around inclusive of that $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 working capital. We're focused on $1,000,000,000 of Pulling on $1,000,000,000 are unique to Dow Levers. Working capital is certainly one of them. The other one, as you saw in the Q4, we successfully concluded One of the 2 big Nova litigations that we have, we're hopeful that we can solve the second one or resolve the second one In calendar year 2023, that could be another up to as much as $500,000,000 of unique to Dow cash that we expect. And then we've got a few other projects That are in the works to round out that $1,000,000,000

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from John McNulty of BMO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thanks for taking my question. So it seemed like the destocking was kind of at really accelerated levels in the Q4. Can you give us a little bit of color as to Which of the segments do you feel like you're largely through that? And if anything, you may be maybe we're even at a balanced side or even a restock phase?

Speaker 5

And I guess Tied to that, can you speak to the operating rate you saw in the Q4 and how you expect that to change as we look to 1Q? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Good morning, John. Good question. I would say it accelerated in December. We made an announcement in October that we were going to reduce some operating rates in ethylene, polyethylene because of Some logistics constraints and other things that happen.

Speaker 2

We saw better logistics in December. December was our best Export month of the year for marine pack cargo, so that's positive. But at the same time, Manufacturing activity in the last half of December really slowed. And so you could see that in the order pattern and that stayed relatively slow the first Half of January, I do think we're seeing manufacturing activity come back right now. We're seeing that in the order book.

Speaker 2

I would not say that we're at a restocking state yet, but I do think as the quarter progresses, we will get there Because second and third quarter typically are our highest volume quarters and there is not a lot Exits inventory anywhere in the change right now. So I do think it's coming, but it isn't here as we sit here right now today.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning guys. What was the impact from the lower operating rates in the 4th quarter on EBITDA? Meaning if you were at normal operating rates, what would that be? And then is that impact similar for the Q1? And When do you think you can see your operating rates sort of improve back to normal rates in 2023?

Speaker 2

Yes. Just to give you an idea, I would say, Probably you saw because of destocking, you probably saw a 10% lower operating rate due to destocking. Rough numbers, Howard, what do you think?

Speaker 5

That's $40,000,000

Speaker 3

Yes, I would say 10 percentage points. And that's I mean, when you think about every percentage point, Yes. Look, I would say it this way, Mike, when you look at the sequential decline in EBITDA, probably 2 thirds Of that EBITDA drop was because of the destocking and then the other balance was really the seasonal just a seasonal sequential decline because we're in More of a Northern Hemisphere business and obviously our coatings business typically is a seasonal low point in the 4th quarter.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Steve Rhine of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thank you. That 2,000 headcount reduction, And how much of that is these assets in Europe that you're planning to shutter? Or can you Highlight what operations, is this commercial or back office headcount? And then just one other quick one, Your partnership with Neera, when that's at scale and you're using the paralysis oil as cracker feedstock, how would you Expect the profitability of that versus naphtha or ethane based feedstock?

Speaker 2

Sure. Good morning, Steve. Good questions. 2000 headcount reduction It's not all specific to Europe, although Europe is a big part of the earnings decline that's driving us to take these actions. The site and asset decisions we've made so far are really smaller locations, smaller scale locations Where we know they will be challenged through the year.

Speaker 2

We haven't released a list of those. We're working through that with the European Works Councils, etcetera. But we will be doing that as we get toward the end of this quarter. The $1,000,000,000 is really made up of Two buckets, dollars 500,000,000 is structural cost reductions. That's the headcount reductions.

Speaker 2

That's Productivity via end to end process improvements, we're really building off that digital work we've done and that would You'll work on improving processes and customer service and then the asset decisions and then $500,000,000 would just be reduced spending Turnaround spend, which Howard had mentioned, dollars 300,000,000 leveraging our volume on lower purchase raw materials, logistics and utilities We do see some supply demand imbalances and the ability to do that and just tightening the belt to this environment. So I would say I don't it's not a haircut 5% of the workforce. It will be targeted. It will be targeted around asset decisions. It will be targeted around businesses that need to tighten.

Speaker 2

It will be targeted around it's not just Dow headcount. We will have contractor reductions as well at the sites. And so we'll look at it that way. On Muira, on our transform the waste target, Right now, when we talk to you at Investor Day in 2021, the premiums Very by technology, but they continue to be greater than about $1,000 a metric ton. And the supply demand, the demand is out there right now and it's in excess of the supply.

Speaker 2

I think As the supply increases, there will be pressure on that, obviously. But there's a big imbalance right now between what the Consumer brand owners want and what's available out there. So I do think you'll see margin expansion in that part of the segment. There will be some higher costs With doing that, but there will I think the premiums will more than cover that.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes, good morning. Jim, I'd welcome your thoughts on the supply side of polyethylene. We've seen spot prices start to percolate higher Over the last 3 or 4 weeks, I was wondering if you could comment on where you see downstream inventory levels among converters at this point? And also, if I rewind to maybe September, we had a lot of purposeful throttling back of operating rates from Dow and others that Dovetailed into Winter Storm Elliot in late December. I think at least one of your competitors has declared force majeure on a tornado of all things.

Speaker 11

If we look at that holistically, do you think there's enough supply destruction to kind of rebalance The polyethylene market and move higher from here.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Kevin. I think there has been enough, obviously, to give good momentum to these price increases in the Q1. And so I think we will see the margins expand as I mentioned earlier on one of the other questions. From a supply side standpoint, it's also worth mentioning that I'm really proud of the team. After winter storm Yuri, we Took our playbook and we said, how do we if this happens again, how do we make sure that we don't have any production losses due to freeze?

Speaker 2

And we were able to navigate this freeze with Winter Storm Elliot and we had no problems with polyethylene plants or crackers. And right now as we sit here, about 37% of the ethylene capacity in the Gulf Coast is still offline. And so that's advantage to us. And as Howard mentioned, the only issue we've had is with an industrial gas supplier At one of our sites in Louisiana for our Industrial Solutions business, that's been our only blip. And I don't think they did the same kind of work.

Speaker 2

I do think China to PJ's question earlier, China is making an impact. We saw that in December. I think we're going to continue to see that in the Q1. Inventories there are managed well. Inventories here, 5 consecutive months of reduction in the AACC inventory data, inventories 45 days, that's pretty standard Inventory levels.

Speaker 2

And I think everybody, not just converters, but consumers, brand owners, everybody in the value Jane, at the end of the year, was watching inventories and managing cash into a slow end of the year. We had a pretty strong end of the year In 2021 and in 2022, we kind of reverted more to the normal slower end of the year dynamics. We do have to keep an eye on capacity coming on, but I would say our outlook for the year is probably about the same amount of Capacity offline as last year. And so if demand ticks back up here and there's some restocking that happens, That will set us up well for 2nd and Q3.

Speaker 3

I would also just add that another bright spot that we see as we head into 2023 is the improving situation marine pack cargo and the ability to export out of North America. I mean, I can't speak for our Peers, but certainly we certainly have ramped our capability. And so that really should not be a bottleneck, At least for the first half of the year, I don't have the visibility in the second half, but certainly as we ramp through the balance of Q1 into Q2, we should see Increased marine pack cargo exports out of the U. S.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from John Roberts of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Good morning. This is Matt Skowronski on for John. 2 commodities that Dow participates in, siloxanes and MDI, Have had competitor capacity come online recently. You called out weaker pricing in siloxanes in your guide for the Q1. Can you just talk about how long you expect it to take for pricing these commodities to recover?

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning and thank you for the question. I think we'll see a little bit of demand improvement, but So, Oxane's prices have fallen to their lowest levels in some time At the end of the year and so we start the year at those levels. I don't think we're expecting any immediate Improvement, the downstream demand, it still continues to be good. Building and construction will be the thing that I think will to the positive.

Speaker 2

So if we see a good rebound in building and construction in China, that should start to pull things To the positive and lift things up, North America has been fairly resilient And North America and Europe are typically slightly higher than the Chinese prices and that continues to be the same case today. So that's my outlook on siloxanes. On MDI, I would say the biggest Difference between what's reported in the markets on MDI in our view is just what you believe about The RTO timing of some of the Chinese competition's new plants that are coming online. I think our view is that that's going to be stretched out over a longer period of time. Most of what's reported would have all that Four world scale MDI facilities coming on in 2023.

Speaker 2

I don't think that's our view of how that's going to happen. That would be more spread over the 2023 to 2025 time period. And so I think that'll Take some of that pressure off of MDI. Downstream demand for MDI and for systems And the applications that it goes into is really good. So I don't feel worried about that.

Speaker 2

That's purely what your assumptions are about That's our new demand coming or new supply coming online and the timeframe.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Christopher Parkinson of Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you so much. You have a very helpful slide given all your growth expansions on Slide 10. And obviously, there's been a lot going on regarding the P and SP, ethylene, The polyethylene side over the last few years. But when we all take a step back, just given all the volatility in the macro headwinds, How should investors now be thinking about normalized earnings when we're thinking about 24 when we're looking out to 25 even perhaps, especially in the context of potentially lower NGL prices.

Speaker 12

Just do you have any updated thoughts on that? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Good question, Chris. Good morning. I would go back that this is the basis of obviously the earnings corridor slide that we put together and we shared last year and at earnings day back in 2021. And so if you look at it, I think we look at the mid range, the kind of the through the cycle range as being what we target for the growth. And that's kind of how we report the growth.

Speaker 2

And then peak potential would be when you would see those Scenarios like you mentioned with lower NGL prices and higher oil prices, like we got into with 2021 and the first half of twenty twenty two, that was kind of peak levels for plastics.

Speaker 12

I do

Speaker 2

think the possibility exists that oil price is going to continue to be Driving higher because we've had underinvestment in oil production, inventories at the bottom of their 5 year average. And if you started investing in oil production today, it would be 3 to 5 years before you would see any movement in And that number and I do think that demand any demand pull on that is going to start to move oil prices up and anything speculative That happens, we'll move it up quickly because those inventory levels are so low. Meanwhile, NGL production is continuing to grow And a pretty good clip. I think it's going to be up pretty substantially here in the United States this year. And so that keeps Costs down on NGLs and so that's positive.

Speaker 2

So Canada, U. S, Argentina, I feel good about the positions we have there. Obviously, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, we feel good about that. Our cracking in Ternuz And Spain, I think that's positive. So you've seen the high watermark for Plastics delivered $8,000,000,000 of EBITDA, which is right in line with what we've got here with peak potential EBITDA range, and I think we're trying to get the other segments up to that peak potential as well.

Speaker 2

So I feel good about where we're going long term and that's also one of the reasons we wanted to make the investment in Canada. If all the conditions are right, we want to make that investment to continue to leverage that position. Hard to say what's going to happen with all that energy policy plays a big part in it. I think the one thing that Governments aren't correctly addressing is that all the things that we passed for IRA for new Technologies, that's all great. We're very supportive.

Speaker 2

It's a fantastic package. We also need some support for conventional oil and gas Production because we are going to need reliable power and natural gas is going to provide the low carbon reliable Our foreseeable near future.

Speaker 3

I would also just say that, I mean, when you think about that earnings corridor of 6 to 12 And then moving to the middle of the decade into the $7,000,000,000 to $13,000,000,000 range with all the CapEx and OpEx investments we're making. If you just want to look at the mathematical average, right now that's about a $9,000,000,000 normalized Through the cycle and then by the middle of the decade that should be in the $10,000,000,000 range by the middle of the in terms of the mathematical average and the Normalized view by the middle of the decade.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thank you and good morning. And Howard, thank you so much for giving us the mathematical average For 6% to 12% and 7% to 13%, I was having difficulty crunching that number. Hey, I want to come To the cost savings, the $1,000,000,000 you mentioned that in the Q1 you can take a charge of $550,000,000 Plus. And I was wondering how much of that is cash versus non cash? And then also on that slide, you mentioned that you're going to be reducing turnaround spending in 2023 versus 2022.

Speaker 13

And I'm curious if you could order give us an order of magnitude there. And does that suggest Perhaps that 2024 will see an above average spend on turnarounds?

Speaker 2

Howard, do you want to take it?

Speaker 3

Yes. Frank, you're welcome. I just that really my answer on the previous question was really targeted at all the Nets and the Jets fans Out there. I just wanted to let you know that make sure that you can do that math. Just a joke.

Speaker 3

Look, the $1,000,000,000 As we look at the end of the year run rate exiting into 2024, that $1,000,000,000 should become about 1,400,000,000 We haven't set the turnaround budget for 2024 yet obviously, but I could imagine if we just revert to a normalized Turnaround and that could be the turnarounds could be potentially $150,000,000 or maybe $200,000,000 higher in 2024 than 2023 If we do one more cracker turnaround, so that would be the order of magnitude that I would expect. But still improving, Yes. Overall, the cost improving versus 2023.

Speaker 2

And then how much was the cash charge on

Speaker 3

The cash we expect the cash outlay over the course of 2023 2024 to be roughly $800,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 In that range about half this year probably and then the balance of the other half in 2024.

Speaker 1

I think that's all the time we have for today. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will posted on DOW's website within approximately 48 hours. This concludes our call. Thanks everyone for your time this morning.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
DOW Q4 2022
00:00 / 00:00