Carnival Co. & Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 27, 2023

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Morning. This is Josh Weinstein. Welcome to our Q1 2023 business update conference call. I'm joined today by our Chair, Mickey Arison our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein and our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts. Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward looking.

Operator

Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press Consistent with our last business update, we remain on an upward trajectory as we further close the gap to 2019. We are still experiencing a record wave season, which started early, gained strength and has extended later into the year. We expect these favorable trends to continue based on the traction we're making through our ongoing efforts to drive demand globally. In the Q1, we outperformed our guidance on all measures revenue, costs, adjusted EBITDA and earnings, while overcoming over $30,000,000 in headwinds from fuel price and currency since our prior guidance. Thanks to the dedicated efforts of our 160,000 amazing team members around the world.

Operator

We had sequential improvement in our occupancy gap to 2019 from 19 points in Q4 to 13 points in Q1 on increasing capacity, which is now above 2019 levels. We anticipate being just 7 points or less Away from 2019 occupancies in the 2nd quarter, well on our way to historical occupancies this summer. Equally important, we also drove ticket prices higher and continue to throttle back on our opaque channel, while also maintaining outsized onboard revenue growth. But we have not lost sight of the cost side of the business. We are working hard to mitigate 4 years of inflation, while still reinvesting in advertising and sales support to build future demand.

Operator

We did update our cost guidance primarily to reflect decisions taken during the quarter that have increased our costs, but will produce greater EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, which David will elaborate on. We remain nimble and continue to aggressively seek opportunities to accelerate our path back to strong profitability. For the year, We're expecting adjusted EBITDA of $4,000,000,000 at the midpoint. The GAAP to 20 nineteen's record $5,500,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA is being driven primarily by 2 items. 1st is our 2023 occupancy gap to 2019, which we expect to be behind us as we cycle through this year.

Operator

As we discussed on the last call, this results primarily from longer duration exotic voyages early in the year that we did not feel given the disparate COVID protocols to land based alternatives We're in place during most of the booking window for these voyages, as well as closing deployment changes and the slightly delayed but improving European recovery trajectory. 2nd is a drag due to fuel prices and currency changes compared to 2019. In actuality, the strength of our demand generation resulting in elevated per diems and our fleet optimization efforts has helped us to mitigate 4 years of significant cost inflation, which of course will continue to work to offset even further. On a per ALBD basis and holding fuel price and currency constant to 2019 levels, We were roughly 60% back to 2019 EBITDA in our Q1, better than our expectations to be halfway back. We expect to be 2 thirds of the way back in our Q2 as we progress back to levels that rival 2019 as we exit the year.

Operator

Each point of net yield improvement results in $170,000,000 to the bottom line in 2024. With our continuing demand generation seeing us close the occupancy gap entirely and allowing us to pull back further opaque channel activity, We are well positioned to continue to drive ticket prices higher and more than offset the drag from fuel price and currency over time. To that end, WAVE season has been phenomenal. It started early with record Black Friday booking volumes and has continued to build. We achieved our highest ever quarterly booking volumes in our company's history.

Operator

And we actually had our best weekly booking volume for this wave the last week in February. And the good news is that strength in bookings has continued into March, supporting our revenue expectations for the remainder of the year. Of course, we're working very hard to do even better. In North America, our Carnival brand continues to propel us forward, breaking new booking records every single week in January February. Booking volumes for our North American brands have been running in excess of record 2019 levels for the last 6 months and booking lead times are now back to peak levels.

Operator

Demand for our European brands has strengthened more recently and is catching up to the U. S. Market in the recovery cycle. Demand trends are improving across all regions as we exit the winter period and home heating concerns fade. In fact, Booking volumes reached a record for our European brands as well, evidencing strong close in demand and producing a continued lengthening in the booking curve.

Operator

As we previously noted, Australia is about a year behind the U. S. In terms of the recovery cycle. And while Asia is still about 2 years behind, we successfully resumed operations there with the ships now in Japan and 1 in Taiwan beginning this summer. Turning to China, The country still has not reopened to international cruise travel, which accounted for 1,000,000 of our guests pre pause and was a significant presence for Costa.

Operator

To address this, we leaned into the mobility of our assets by leveraging our scale as we capitalize on the strength of our brand portfolio, while building alternate deployments for the remaining Costa fleet. The actions we've taken to right size the Costa brand are working. Following the transfer of Venezia to our highly successful Carnival Cruise Line brand, the launch of fun Italian style has received Strong support and is already reaching nearly 100 percent occupancy level for the Q3. And with strengthening demand, Costa will be able to enter its remaining idle capacity at a faster pace. Overall, with normalized onboard protocols, We are on an even playing field to land based alternatives, enabling us to close the unprecedented and unwarranted 25% to 50% value gap to land based offerings over time.

Operator

We are well positioned to capture incremental demand Given our high satisfaction and low penetration levels, we're capitalizing on pent up demand for cruise vacations, building on our large base of loyal guests as we work to increase awareness and consideration among new to cruise guests. This has been helped by the ongoing efforts of our travel agent partners who remain a critical source for new to cruise guests. I am delighted to say that the trade is showing a fantastic rebound in its recovery with us this past quarter With several of our brands trade activity exceeding 2019 levels as we support our trade partners with increased training and engagement. And our investment in advertising and sales support is clearly paying dividends. For example, we've been upsizing our U.

Operator

K. TV presence for P&0 Cruises, the brand synonymous with cruising in the U. K. Not only has P&0 Cruises been enjoying a measurable increase in brand awareness as a result, but the brand has also experienced record bookings over the last 3 months. This is not surprising given the high correlation between TV advertising awareness and propensity to book in the UK.

Operator

The awareness of P and O Cruises has been amplified with the unprecedented and well publicized naming Arvia in Barbados less than 2 weeks ago. The amazing event featured our fabulous godmother Nicole Scherzinger, Chart topping UK singer, Olly Murs and the incomparable Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Motley. Arvia is taking the brand forward with new guest experiences like the industry's first 3 d submarine escape room and it's got over 30 dining and bar outlets. We have a measured 4.5% capacity growth compared to 2019, while still retaining the excitement from 14 newly delivered ships representing nearly 25% of our capacity. And importantly, our growth is weighted towards 3 of our highest returning brands Carnival Cruise Line, AIDA and P and O Cruises UK following our portfolio and fleet optimization efforts.

Operator

As mentioned on previous calls, To help support this growth and drive overall revenue generation over time, I've actively been working with each brand on their strategies and roadmaps To ensure they have clearly identified target markets, capacity that is appropriately sized to the market potential, Demand generation capability to hone in on the target market at the lowest possible acquisition cost and deliver an amazing guest experience on board to drive net promoter scores and resulting advocacy higher. These efforts are well underway. We have or are in the process of refreshing segmentation research across all major source markets to confirm and resize our target audiences by brand post pause. Our brands have identified clear differentiators And we are leveraging these insights to fine tune each brand's positioning and marketing efforts to attract new to cruise guests and increase loyalty. For example, we've developed new brand affinity partnerships like Porsche Club of America or Princess, which is an efficient way to drive new to cruise demand through a brand that will resonate with its target guests.

Operator

We have launched new marketing campaigns across multiple media channels, including new national and Homeport driven regional television in most major markets to increase awareness. And we've leaned into digital media with emphasis on video for enhanced storytelling. In fact, Aida's New Wave campaign Better Together has had 86,000,000 views on TikTok and counting. We are redesigning websites to increase online traffic, improve conversion achieve higher pre cruise onboard sales. We are refining our onboard apps to increase communication and engagement as well as capturing incremental onboard revenue.

Operator

We are refining our digital performance marketing efforts, continuously fine tuning search engine optimization and testing new lead generation approaches with impressive results. As just two examples, Holland America was recently named to the top 100 fastest growing digital brands And cost has driven an over 40% increase in lead generation in just the last 6 months. Our web visits are up 35% over 2019, which is multiples of our measured capacity growth and our guests that are new to brand already reached 90% of 2019 levels in the Q1. These are testaments to the success of our investments in advertising and sales support. And in fact, we're bolstering our sales and service support to address the increased volume and reduce call times resulting from all of the above.

Operator

We are sharpening our revenue management tools to drive incremental revenues through increased bundled package offers and new upgrade programs. We're also opening deployments further in advance and testing and learning pricing strategies to support earlier occupancy builds and to push the booking curve out further. We are actively reducing already low cancellation levels through changes to deposit policies and new fare structures. And we are using guest insights and sharing cross brand learnings to aid in everything we do. We all have a sense of urgency To further our brand's efforts to drive net yield improvement and while it's working, we recognize these efforts build over time.

Operator

To aid in these efforts, we also have an opportunity to further leverage and monetize our industry leading land based assets in the Caribbean and Alaska. In the Caribbean, we are building on our strategic advantage with a meaningful expansion of Half Moon Cay, which is consistently voted best private island. And of course, we're also developing our largest Caribbean destination yet, our Grand Bahama Court. It's being designed to deliver wow factors tailored to Carnival Cruise Lines guests to drive higher revenue yields and margins. Importantly, this development is strategically located to deliver a wide array of Lower fuel consumption itineraries, furthering our carbon reduction efforts.

Operator

And in Alaska, we have an unmatched Strategic footprint across hotels, rail and motor coaches to deliver unique Landsea packages of a lifetime as well as the most itineraries by far featuring the iconic Glacier Bay. Turning to our capital structure, we've completed 2 more export credits this quarter, bringing the total remaining available to $3,200,000,000 The export credits are not only an attractive way to fund new ships, But they also serve to effectively roll debt that's maturing at attractive rates. In fact, the majority of export credits coming due in the next Few years will be replaced by new export credits available to be drawn. As a result, we expect export credits to remain a similar portion of our debt structure at preferential low to mid single digit interest rates. We also proactively addressed the renewal of our revolving credit agreement.

Operator

The creative forward start revolver allows us to retain the benefit of $2,900,000,000 of liquidity until August of 2024 and provides an 18 month window to build on the current commitment of $2,100,000,000 Hats off to David and our treasury team. We remain disciplined in making capital allocation decisions including new builds. We have our lowest order book in decades, which has 4 ships on order through 2025 and there will be none in 2026, plus our second incredible luxury expedition ship for Seaborne to be delivered later this year. Following a strong and prolonged wave season, customer deposits are running up double digits, contributing to adjusted free cash flow turning positive this quarter and for the full year. We are set up for structurally higher growth in customer deposits going forward as we benefit from increasing demand and increases in our bundled package offerings and pre cruise sales.

Operator

While we'll always look at opportunistic refinancing opportunities With adjusted free cash for the year expected to be positive, our revolver renewal behind us, More committed export credit financings in hand, our reduced CapEx profile going forward and over $8,000,000,000 of liquidity, We believe we are well positioned to pay down near term debt maturities from excess liquidity and have no intention to issue equity. And with our industry leading cost structure, we are well positioned to bring incremental revenue to the bottom line. We are focused on durable revenue growth, margin improvement and driving EBITDA per available birthday higher to propel us on the path to delivering investment grade credit ratings and increased ROIC. Over time, We expect the enterprise value for our company to shift from debt holders back toward equity holders. I can't end the call without once again praising Our travel agent partners for their unwavering support and our team members Ship and Shore who work so hard every day to fulfill our mission of creating unforgettable happiness by providing extraordinary cruise vacation to our guests, while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sail, place we visit and life we touch.

Operator

Our company is powered by our best in class people, something for which I am incredibly thankful. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Josh. Before I begin, please note all of my references to ticket prices, net per diems and adjusted cruise costs without fuel We'll be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. I'll start today with a summary of our 2023 Q1 results. Then I'll provide a recap of our cumulative book position. Next, I'll give some additional color on our 2023 full year March guidance and finish up describing our financial position.

Speaker 1

As Josh indicated, in the Q1, we outperformed our guidance on all measures. For the Q1, our adjusted EBITDA was $382,000,000 which was $82,000,000 above the midpoint of our December guidance. The improvement was driven by 2 things. 1st, dollars 82,000,000 of favorability in both improved ticket prices as net Per dams were up 7.5% and higher occupancy of over 91%. And second, $28,000,000 of favorability in adjusted cruise costs without fuel due to the timing of expenses between quarters, both of which were partially offset by a $31,000,000 unfavorable net impact from higher fuel prices and currency.

Speaker 1

I have 3 additional comments before leaving the Q1 results. First, our onboard and other revenue The Q1 continued at an elevated pace that is consistent with the back half of twenty twenty two, demonstrating continued I indicated that for 2023 as we have done in the past, we changed the bundled package offerings to capture incremental revenue streams And we reevaluated the revenue accounting allocations. As a result, in 2023, More of the revenue will be less than ticket and less allocated to onboard, impacting the onboard and other revenue per diem comparisons to both 2022 2019. Just another reason to add to the list of reasons why the best way to judge our revenue performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics such as net per diems. 2nd, Occupancy for the Q1 was over 91%, but still a gap to 2019.

Speaker 1

We expect to continue to close the gap As we progress through 2023, setting us up for improved year over year adjusted EBITDA starting in Q1 2024, driven by higher revenue because of the occupancy improvement. And third, net per dams for the first Quarter 2023 benefited from brand mix and cabin mix as compared to the remaining 3 quarters of 2023, which was particularly aided this quarter by the exotic voyages that held down our occupancies, which we discussed on our last conference call. Turning to our cumulative book position. For the remainder of 2023, our cumulative advanced book position is at higher ticket prices Normalized for future cruise credits when compared to strong 2019 pricing with booked And strong pre cruise sales has resulted in total customer deposits achieving a 1st quarter record of $5,700,000,000 Surpassing the previous Q1 record of $4,900,000,000 a 16% increase. Next, I will give some additional color on our 2023 full year March guidance.

Speaker 1

We now expect capacity growth for the full year 2023 to be 4.5% when compared to 2019. With strengthening demand, Costa will be able to reenter its remaining idle capacity at a faster pace than originally thought, Increasing our capacity growth from December guidance. Full year 2023 occupancy is expected to be 100% or higher as we close the gap each quarter on occupancy levels as compared to 2019. On the pricing front, We expect net per dams to be up 3% to 4% for full year 2023 compared to a strong 2019 With net yields improving every quarter throughout 2023 as compared to 2019 and exceeding 2019 in the Q4. As I previously mentioned, NecroDMs for Q1 2023 benefited from brand mix and cabin mix as compared to the remaining 3 quarters of 2023.

Speaker 1

Our net per diems for the 2nd quarter An implied guidance for the second half of twenty twenty three reflect the changing brand mix and cabin mix throughout the year. During 2023, our European brands expect their onboard and other revenue per diems to be up significantly versus 2019 as they were in 2022 and has been the case with our North American brands. As I previously pointed out, the absolute onboard Spending on our European brands is less than that on our North American brands. Our European brand guests tend to drink a little bit more, But gamble a lot less. As the European brands catch up on occupancy with our North American brands during the second and third quarters And fill their ships driving adjusted EBITDA higher, they will make up a larger percentage of the total, changing the per passenger average In addition, as we continue to close the gap to 2019 occupancy, many of the remaining cabins left to be filled are inside cabins.

Speaker 1

As we fill our increasingly shrinking remaining inventory driving adjusted EBITDA higher, we will fill the last of our inside cabins lowering our average net per diem. Now turning to costs. Off the base of our industry leading cost structure, Adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD for the full year 2023 versus 2019 are now expected to be up 8.5% To 9.5%, this is approximately 1 point higher than our December guidance, but for all the right reasons driving adjusted EBITDA higher. First, with record booking levels on both sides of the Atlantic during the Q1, we increased the occupancy levels on which our December cost guidance was based, driving food costs and certain other operating expenses higher, but also driving adjusted EBITDA higher. Next, we reevaluated and increased our customer service and Support staffing levels and associated costs around the globe given higher booking levels are occurring sooner than we previously thought.

Speaker 1

3rd, with strengthening demand, we made the strategic decision for Costa to reenter into service its remaining idle capacity, which means additional restart expenses in 2023, but again, this will drive adjusted EBITDA higher. 4th, The opportunistic sale and charter back of Seaborne Odyssey earlier this month will reduce depreciation expense, But the resulting charter hire expense drives adjusted cruise costs higher. We will record a U. S. GAAP gain on the sale, But the gain will be excluded from adjusted cruise costs.

Speaker 1

And finally, 5th, we see opportunities to set ourselves up for Even more successful 2024 and beyond by further tweaking up advertising expense later in 2023. Again, And I must sound like a broken record, this will drive adjusted cruise cost higher, but will also drive adjusted EBITDA higher. As Josh said, we remain nimble and continue to aggressively seek opportunities to accelerate our path back to strong profitability. The details of depreciation and amortization, interest expense and fuel expense can be found in the business update press release we issued earlier I would like to thank our treasury team for the great job managing our debt portfolio with 75% of our debt having fixed interest rates, which is significantly higher than year end 2021 when it was 58%, protecting us in what has been a rising rate environment. Furthermore, for those of you modeling our fuel expense, Please note that we expect MGO to represent around 40% of our fuel consumption for 2023 With the percentage slightly higher during the first half of the year, putting all these factors together, we expect 3,900,000,000 $4,100,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2023.

Speaker 1

And now I will finish up Describing our financial position. I am smiling when I report that adjusted free cash flow turned positive in the Q1 of 2023 And we expect adjusted free cash flow to be positive for the full year 2023. I feel great As I report that we are beyond the peak of our total debt. Total debt peaked at over $35,000,000,000 in the Q1 of 2023, when we drew on the export credit for P and O Cruises' Arvia at the time of delivery. We believe with over $8,000,000,000 of liquidity, we are well positioned to pay down near term debt maturities of $1,800,000,000 $33,500,000,000 In addition, our debt maturity towers have been well managed through 2024, which has $2,500,000,000 of debt maturities next year.

Speaker 1

And looking forward, I expect substantial increases And adjusted free cash flow in 2024 and beyond through durable revenue growth and gross margin improvement To drive down our debt balances on our path back to investment grade and as a result, we have no intention to issue equity. Before I turn the call over to the operator, let me remind you to visit our website for our Q1 business update release and presentation. Now, operator, let's open up the call for questions.

Speaker 2

Thank Our first question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with Churit Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Patrick.

Speaker 3

I've got a couple of questions for you. First off, you talked about Only having, I would say, less desirable cabins left to sell. How did that Play out in sort of how your booking volumes trended during the quarter and how it related to pricing? Did you see any At the beginning of the quarter, say December January, stronger volumes, but then you sold out, and then lower volumes later on, but maybe Higher pricing as people shifted to longer, say, European Vacations or Alaska Cruises, any shift in there? Thank you.

Speaker 3

That's my first question. Go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, Patrick. So, this is Josh. No, nothing discernible. I mean, the fact is the volumes in the business over the entire wave period were just Wave after wave, pun intended of strength.

Speaker 4

And so we didn't see anything noticeable. David, just to be clear, mentioned the fact that it's not only Insides left. It's just that's the majority of what we've got left. And when you're getting down to less than 7 points in Q2 and then finally catching up to historical over the summer, I mean, we're talking about just filling things out on the ends. So we feel real good about the fact that we're over 70% booked for the remainder of the year.

Speaker 4

We're tracking well and WAVE has continued.

Speaker 1

And by the way, I wouldn't call them less desirable. They're just different. And people have a great time in those cabins.

Speaker 3

Okay. I won't argue with that. My next question, if you talk about trends in book direct, Certainly, from my conversations with the trade, we hear that especially on the shorter, Less expensive cruises, you're taking a noticeable share in book direct. Can you comment on that at all? Thank

Speaker 4

Overall, what we've said and it's going to be consistent is that our direct business held up well And we've really been working hard to help the trade get back up to what we know that they can achieve. And the fact is, as you heard me say in my prepared remarks, Many of our brands exceeded 2019 levels with the trade and overall we're well on our way to get into those levels. So we feel actually fantastic about the performance that they've made to date and we expect that momentum just like our own To continue and we do think that all the work we've been doing on the revenue generation isn't just for ourselves, it's really in partnership with the trade and helps the trade, Because the more awareness we have, the more folks that get interested and the more they can help bring ultimately to our brands.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Patrick.

Speaker 2

Next question from the line of Steve Kucinski with Stifel, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 4

So Josh

Speaker 5

or David, just want to ask about the full year EBITDA guidance you provided this morning. And if we look at what you did in EBITDA in the Q1, it exceeded your midpoint by, let's call it, about 30%. And that's with a pretty significant fuel and FX headwind. So if we look at what you're guiding for the 2nd quarter, You're essentially guiding to a little less than let's call it $3,000,000,000 in EBITDA for the second half of the year. And I guess the question is that just seems incredibly, incredibly conservative given What you're seeing from a demand perspective, spending perspective, whatever you want to look at it.

Speaker 5

So have you taken the view that the consumer slows some in the second half of the year? And if I ask that a little differently, Is it safe to assume that the consumer does stay kind of where they are right now? There should be some pretty good upside to your guidance range. And look, I understand that David called out some change there in brand mix and cabin mix, but I'm just trying to figure out what that impact could be? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes. Look, I mean, we set our guidance based on a lot of variables, right? Some of the things like I mentioned already, we know we're already 70 We get to pull forward a good amount of our onboard spend, which has been an active initiative as you know. We give a range To some extent, because there are some things that, can move little bits and pieces here and there. Overall, Just like the Q1, we are working incredibly hard to beat our own expectations.

Speaker 4

And so we'll continue to do that. We have not seen A decline in consumer activity and that's with respect to both the booking pace and Onboard spending level, so despite the fact that there's some volatility out there, it hasn't yet if it ever does, it has not shown up In our business and we want to maintain that and hopefully can lead to even stronger EBITDA as we work our way through the year.

Speaker 5

Okay, got you. And then Josh, you made it very clear in the press release that you believe the company is now in a very Solid liquidity position and the use of equity won't be needed moving forward. So you've sat in your seat now for not a year, but let's call it over 6 months. Have you given any thought as to a timeline now as to when Carnival, the corporation could return to that important investment grade status?

Speaker 4

Our goal is certainly to get there. I'm a former treasurer, so that's quite important for all of us. The trajectory is going to be driven by significant free cash flow over time. We are working on longer term views of the world. This is our Q1.

Speaker 4

We just gave a full year outlook. So give me a little more time and we'll certainly start talking about longer term targets and initiatives going forward.

Speaker 1

But remember that getting back to investment grade is twofold. It's both improving EBITDA and paying down debt. And so as Josh mentioned in his prepared remarks, in 2024, we do expect to see considerably improved EBITDA as a result of the occupancy and with the lower CapEx and only 4 ships on order and number 2026, we do expect to Be able to accelerate the pay down in debt.

Speaker 5

Okay, got you. Thanks, Josh. Thanks, David.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Steve.

Speaker 2

Our next question is from the line of James Hardiman with Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 4

Thanks for taking my call. So

Speaker 7

Maybe to ask one of the previous questions a different way. Obviously, there's a lot of mix affecting Per diems over the course of the year, is there any way to sort of tease out the mix and the inter cabin impact? Guess I'm just trying to figure out if like for like per diems are getting better or getting worse, right? Obviously, throughout the rest of the consumer space, Investors are bracing for a deceleration in pricing power as we work our way through the year. Obviously, the Truist space A very different spot given where we've been.

Speaker 7

Maybe any way to think about sort of like for like pricing and what that tells us about the consumer?

Speaker 4

Sure. So thanks for the question, James. Like for like, the pricing is up. So we're very happy. As David said, I wish I had said it was a really good line.

Speaker 4

They're not undesirable cabins. They're very desirable up and down our fleet and our portfolio based on what particular guests are looking for and they are Paying more forward and spending more on board. And you got to remember, and I've been here for a long time and I remember hearing this For the last 20 years, good times and bad, our business model holds up very well. And the reason why it holds up so well in a recession, If one comes is because we are an incredible value to land, anywhere from 25% to 50% lower Then the land based equivalent. And so when people are looking to figure out how do I make my dollar go further, we can provide better value for their money, For their vacation, which is still incredibly important, even more so now than it used to be in the past, the people will not give up.

Speaker 4

So we feel very good about our position.

Speaker 1

The only thing I can add to that is, I did say in my prepared remarks that we did expect the 4th quarter Yields to be up compared to 2019. And that is sort of an indication of the higher pricing that we're expecting. And by the time we get to Q4, a lot of the mix issues that we were talking about have disappeared.

Speaker 4

Yes, pretty much all of them.

Operator

All of them, yes.

Speaker 3

Got it. Makes sense. And then maybe on the cost side,

Speaker 7

so I think costs were up Roughly 6% in the Q1, constant currency, 10.5% to 11.5%. The 2nd quarter seems like There was some moving around of costs within those numbers, but then 8.5% to 9.5% for the year. So presumably the back half of the year, Those numbers are coming down. I guess I'm just trying to think about sort of an exit rate. You said you're still going to be spending on advertising Later in the year, but ultimately is there an opportunity for net cruise costs to Come down in 2024 versus 2023?

Speaker 7

Or should I think about more of a normalized growth rate as we move beyond sort of the base level of 2023?

Speaker 1

Sure. So to start with, you mentioned the first to the second Quarter and it did go up quite a bit, but there were really two things that drove that. There was remember, we increased Occupancy from the Q1 to the second, you're talking about a 7 percentage point increase in occupancy. And so I'm very happy. That was a couple of points Of the difference, the other was dry dock, which was also worth 2 points because of the number of dry docks between the quarters.

Speaker 1

So 4 of the 5 point differential is just those 2 items. And there was also timing of R and M expenses. But as we've said many times before, judge us on costs for the full year and not any particular quarter. And we gave you our guidance for the full year, but we'll work hard as we always do to do better than that. And that's a fairly reasonable run rate to think about going forward.

Speaker 4

One thing I just want to clarify because We're still in a little bit of a bizarre comparison structure that we're operating under this year. So when you talk about this year and then exit Rich, you got to remember we're talking about 2023 versus 2019, which is a 4 year gap in the comparison. When we talk about what does 2024 look like, which we're not talking about yet, remember that's 2024 versus 23. So That picture will look very, very different from the environment that we're describing to give a better sense of how we're doing versus the last normalized year of the industry and which was

Speaker 2

Next question from the line of Fred Wietman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey guys, thanks for the question. I wanted to follow-up on the European consumer specifically. I know you sort of talked broadly About the North American consumer. But if we just look at that booking curve, which is trailing North America, I think you guys also made some comments about bookings picking up there recently. And then just piece that altogether with the cost of fleet coming back into service a little bit sooner.

Speaker 8

Can you sort of help us bridge the gap for all that and maybe where the European consumer is specifically?

Speaker 4

Yes. I mean, it is all good news from our perspective. All of our brands over in UK and Europe are experiencing strong demand. They've continued to outperform expectations on the closer in environment that they have been operating under. But as we said, the good news is despite the fact that they're generating even more close in demand than normal, they've also managed to And their booking window over this period.

Speaker 4

So what that tells you is not only are they getting demand for the short term, But they're also beginning to normalize and think about making their holiday choices well in advance. And so Pretty much across the board, we're really we are being supported by strong consumer sentiment in Europe for our European brands.

Speaker 8

Perfect. And then just on the ship pipeline, 0 ships for 26, that's consistent with what you I talked about previously, but I think there was also in the past a comment about expecting 1 or 2 ship deliveries annually for several years beyond that. Is that Sort of the cadence and plan?

Speaker 4

It will certainly be that's certainly the plan 1 or 2, whether that starts in 2027 or it starts After 2027 is still a question mark. And so we're very much focused. If you think about the pipeline over the next four Plus years, it's the lowest it's ever been and it will continue to dwindle down as we get our way through the year.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Next question from the line of Robin Farley with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks. Just wanted to clarify 2 of your comments on the yield outlook. You talked about Q4 yields would be above 2019 levels, sort of suggesting that Q3 would not be, but I think you said that occupancy would be back to full by Q3. And I think you said elsewhere that per diems in each quarter would be higher than 2019.

Speaker 9

So It seems like that should get to yield above 2019 levels in Q3. So if you could just clarify that, there's maybe a piece there I'm not factoring in.

Speaker 1

Yes. We didn't give guidance for each and every quarter. I was trying to just Indicate the 4th quarter for the specific reason that we talked about before in terms of with all of the mix Issues we have, I wanted everybody to fully understand that pricing was up on a like for like basis. And I'd rather not sit here and give Guidance for each quarter. But basically, we said what you had indicated And we'll work hard to do better than that.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. So you understand you're not guiding for Q3, But you're definitely not saying that it can't be above yield in 2019, right? Just wanted to clarify that. Thank you. And then, also just wanted to you talked about your price being higher for the year.

Speaker 9

And in the release, you used the expression that like adjusted Jed, for FCC discounts, I think elsewhere you said pricing per diems would be up 3% to 4% for 2023 versus 2019. When you say that pricing will be up adjusted for FCC, are you suggesting that if you include the FCC discounts In that, that you would not be above 2019 because I would think that FCC discount would only be a percentage point or so. So I'm just wondering why you're sort of calling out that it's higher if you adjust for the FCC. In other words, I don't know I'm asking.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, no problem. Just to be clear, we're projecting net per diems up 3% to 4% for the year And that's inclusive of FCC drag. So without that drag, it'd be even higher.

Speaker 1

And on the bookings, It would be up either way. We just we've been calling that out every quarter, going after the last couple of years. So I guess we continue to call it out, but it'd be up either way.

Speaker 9

And is FCC drag, is that right? Thinking that would only be about Percent, somewhere in the 1% range or?

Speaker 1

Yes, 1% on total net yields for the year, a little bit higher in the first half and a little bit lower in the second

Speaker 9

Okay, great. And then by next year, by 2024, is it fair to assume that there wouldn't be any FCC use After 2023?

Speaker 1

Less than a tenth of a point. It's minimal.

Speaker 9

Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And we do a few left over.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Rob.

Speaker 2

Next question from the line of Ben Jaiken with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. On the last couple of calls and this one, you've spoken about Higher advertising expense, are you able to ballpark either in net cruise costs, basis points or absolute dollars, what this incremental spend is? And then is it the right run rate? Or does it normalize in the future?

Speaker 10

And then I've got one quick follow-up.

Speaker 1

Yes. So the a net cruise cost basis, it's about versus 2019, a 0.5 percent of net cruise cost increase. And as far as the run rate is concerned, Josh?

Speaker 4

Yes. So we're up 1.5%, which means we're still spending less than others in the crew space on a per ALBD basis. We are very pleased with the results because By its very nature, we can throttle up and throttle back. We can literally take it quarter by quarter and work with the brands to understand what's working and what's not. Some things Frankly, it didn't work as well as we had hoped and so the brands have stopped doing it and they're leaning into other things.

Speaker 4

So it'll be pretty fluid as well it Should be. But what I can tell you, if you take a step back and you think about the results that we've experienced, really over the last 6 months and accentuated over the last quarter, We think that's a significant tailwind for what the brands have been able to achieve.

Speaker 10

Understood. Thank you. And then on the last call, you provided a fuel FX Impact for 1Q relative to 2019, you said it was 150. I think subsequent to that, it kind of moved to 181. What does it look like for 2Q at the moment?

Speaker 10

Any color on 3Q, 4Q? Thanks.

Speaker 1

So, let me get the detailed numbers for you. Talking about versus 2019?

Speaker 10

Yes. On the last call you mentioned that you mentioned on the 4Q call For 1Q, you said there would be $150,000,000 headwind relative to 1Q 2019 for FX and fuel.

Speaker 1

Yes, okay.

Speaker 10

And saying what does that look like for 2Q at the moment? And then what any color on 3Q, 4Q would be very helpful as well?

Speaker 1

So Q2 would be about $75,000,000 of fuel and currency headwinds. I don't have Q3 and Q4, But I can't give you the full year. Let's see. For the full year, fueling currency is See, it's $430,000,000 call it.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Our next question is from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. So just starting with yields, the fleet overhaul that you guys did during the pandemic, hypothetically would have A large positive mixed impact for net yields now versus 2019. It's a little hard to see that in your guidance, but there's plenty of residual drags in 2023 3, and obviously much of the book was put in place before the advertising push, right, in last year. So I guess when you adjust out all of the drags that you have This year and maybe take out Australia and Asia and Eastern Europe.

Speaker 11

Are you seeing do you

Speaker 1

feel like you're seeing a tailwind, a material tailwind Can that overhaul?

Speaker 4

So the answer is yes, we do. And one of the difficulties of looking at a 4 year period and trying to piece together everything that builds up to where we are. I mean, there's a lot that's happened over a 4 year period. You think about, I mean, you just say exclude Asia and exclude Australia's restart and then exclude St. Petersburg and which was 7.5% of our business in 2020 2019 Q3.

Speaker 4

There's quite a lot that we have overcome in order to be able to deliver higher per diems as we get to close the gap. We can probably banter you and I, I see you enough Brent, we can banter about all the bits And pieces that go in different directions, but I think we've tried to boil it down to what we think are the real drivers of the business.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thanks for that. And then Maybe just a follow-up to Ben's question, on looking at EBITDA per LBD ex fuel and FX. I noticed that, Josh, your commentary about exiting the year rivaling 4Q 2019 was with that commentary was essentially unchanged from 3 months ago. But again, 3 months ago was before this record wave season.

Speaker 11

So I guess the question is, do you feel any better about that comment 3 months later?

Speaker 4

Yes. You bet I do. So we're working hard. We In the Q1, we were expecting 50 and we got to 60. We're about 2 thirds forecasted for the Q2 on that basis.

Speaker 4

And we're just working everybody is working incredibly hard to make that come to fruition as quickly as we

Speaker 11

Thanks so much everyone.

Speaker 2

Next question from the line of Asiya Georgievo Infinity Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Good morning. Congratulations on the very good results for Q1. Josh, I had a question, kind of longer term question again in terms of new builds, given the fact that it usually takes 3 to 4 years From the point when we put in the order, are you thinking of And again, with the treasury background being more conservative, are you thinking of continuing to Sort of reduce the rate of newbuild growth, the capacity growth? Or can we see acceleration once we get to investment grade?

Speaker 4

We tried to, I think, give that philosophy by using our 1 to Two ships a year once we start ordering again. And so by its very nature that will be a lower capacity Rate of increase than we have experienced for a very, very long time. I feel with Four ships on order plus a small expedition ship and that's it through 2025. We know we're not getting anything for 2026, 27 is a push. We'll see.

Speaker 4

It sets us up incredibly well to be able to generate free cash flow, pay down debt, as As David mentioned, our EBITDA increases get back to 3.5 times debt to EBITDA and be much better positioned to be Making new build decisions frankly for the future.

Speaker 12

Okay. That makes perfect sense. I believe that in the past we were looking to maybe 1 or 2 ships per year per brand as opposed to for the corporate entity.

Speaker 4

No, no, no, no. That would have been a much higher growth rate. We were probably somewhere between 35 ships a year It's depending on the brand. Remember, we have 9 brands. So we've got plenty To diversify our newbuild growth strategy over time.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you so much, Josh. I appreciate it.

Operator

Sure. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Next question from the line of Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, thanks. Just thinking about the ship pipeline, you talked about the gross adds, but the other side of the equation Any attrition, are we now in the normal retirement cycle for the fleet where we should more or less expect maybe 1 to 2 per year? Or did you pull forward some retirements could actually be lower going forward.

Speaker 4

Yes. We definitely pulled forward some shifts that could have been done at a later time. So not anticipating anything of significance over the next couple of years and then we'll probably pick back up the cadence that you're talking about over time, But nothing imminent.

Speaker 6

That's helpful. And then you talked about a few of the non ship related projects, scramBahama, Private Island, etcetera. Can you talk a bit more about how those could potentially impact yields and how the investments may compare to what you've done in the past?

Speaker 4

Yes. Well, I mean, as a starting point, we have a phenomenal footprint in the Caribbean. I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, Half Moon Cay being That's pretty much a jewel of the Caribbean and the Bahamas. With the ability for us to Generate more differentiated experiences through Grand Port, that will absolutely help the Carnival Cruise Line brand, not only on the yield side, but also on the cost side. We're talking about being able to put another incredibly attractive destination in a very short distance from South Florida, the East Coast of the United States, which helps us tremendously On a cost side, on a carbon footprint side and with what we're doing on Half Moon Quay by adding a peer, that will open up a lot more opportunity For us to bring bigger ships to that island, more guests, a better guest experience and more opportunity to generate not only enhanced ticket pricing because of that, but also onboard spend in the form of spending onboard our destinations.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks so much.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Next question from the line of Chris Stathoulopoulos with Hana, please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Josh, you spent a lot of time going through these various revenue Marketing initiatives in your prepared remarks. Could you help frame or give some color as we think about the guide here for EBITDA for the full year, how we should Perhaps we could put those in buckets, how we should think about Incremental revenue for these initiatives here versus any cost and efficiency related efforts net Of what's, as you said, likely to be elevated marketing costs for the midterm? Thank you.

Speaker 4

So I'm going to answer your question. Some of the things that the brands have been working on, what we've seen is a fairly immediate in year Benefit, right? The ability for us to be better at our search engine optimization, driving more people to be looking for us to begin with. We can measure those things and we can see results. There are other things that we're doing, specifically with respect to Introducing fare types, that brands have never had before, some brands doing non refundable deposit fares that have never done that.

Speaker 4

We can weigh that up in year pretty quickly. There are other things that are going to be having impacts not just for this year, but Frankly, on a much longer term basis as well, primarily around how we're managing our booking curve and being able to extend that out further, Being able to be better differentiated in the market, driving more demand over time. So candidly, I'm not sure I'm answering your question, but I don't

Speaker 3

think it's so easy to try

Speaker 4

to fit into Try to fit into particular buckets of EBITDA particularly for this year, if that's what you were looking for.

Speaker 1

The only thing I do want to add is There are a lot of different efforts, efficiency efforts going on all around the company. We did build all of that into our Cost guidance, remember the cost numbers as Josh pointed out are over a 4 year period. This is in comparison to 2019. So There has been a lot of inflation during that 4 years, but we have built a lot of efficiencies as well.

Speaker 4

Yes. And taking a step back from advertising, but just the concept of how are we looking at our business overall, we've tried to stress How are we looking at our business overall, we've tried to stress throughout. We're starting with an industry leading cost structure We certainly want to maintain that. We're always looking from an operational standpoint, how can we do better? How can we improve?

Speaker 4

And we're doing things like benchmarking The same class of ships across multiple brands, we're looking at ways to further leverage our spend through our global sourcing initiatives. That's ongoing, and that will continue, some of which the benefit we know we're seeing already, some of which We'll factor in as we make our way through 2023 and really start benefiting in 2024.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thank you. And a follow-up a little bit of

Speaker 3

a

Speaker 13

tougher more direct question, if you will. So your capacity guide is up about 1.5 from December. The cost guide is up and there's some confusion around here Around your brand and cabin mix, if you will. And I think part of the reason, if we look at January into mid February around some of the Enthusiasm around the stock was at that time that 3% or kind of sort of atypical capacity guide for Carnival, I believe that would help sort of accelerate your unit margin recovery. So what would you say in response?

Speaker 13

And This is a question I've gone today that sort of Carnival liquidity I would say for the first half at least risk here is Off the table, but what would you say in response to that with the guidance update today that Carnival is not Going to revert back to its sort of

Speaker 4

old playbook, if you will.

Speaker 13

And then what I mean by that is really some of the numbers here where we have the 4.5% or mid single digit capacity growth in the higher cost guide and then concern around The pricing integrity here. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Sure. So just to be clear, the only difference in our capacity From what we were saying last quarter till now is because of the strength in demand that we're seeing for the Costa brand because of what we've been doing, We have the opportunity to introduce a ship earlier than we expected, which is going to actually help liquidity because it's going to drive EBITDA. So we feel very good about that decision. We actually have a track record of doing real well on the cost side. So I think if we can maintain That type of discipline, then we'll be well served.

Speaker 4

Everything else that we talked about in the last quarter still holds. We're more enthusiastic now given the fact that we just had record breaking wave. Brands are more set in their plans and we're pushing forward.

Speaker 1

And I would like to add on the cost. The majority of the increase was associated with higher occupancy. And remember, we put together our forecast back last November. We have our earnings call In December very early in the month. And so that was a forecast that we had put together prior to Black Friday, Cyber Monday And all of the record bookings that we saw throughout December, January February.

Speaker 1

So When you've got extra occupancy on board the ship, your costs are going to go up on a unit basis a little bit because remember, The ALBDs don't change or the denominated doesn't change. So it's all very good news driving adjusted EBITDA higher, Driving liquidity, improved liquidity. And so we are far more confident, than we today than we were back in

Speaker 4

I think this has to be the last question.

Operator

Operator?

Speaker 1

Yes, sir.

Speaker 3

We'll take

Speaker 1

one more question.

Speaker 3

We'll take

Speaker 2

one more. The last question from the line of Paul Golding with Macquarie Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Yes. Thanks so much. I wanted to ask around other ship operating from a dry dock perspective. Is there a potential Quantification of this for us in terms of what's left, I think a lot of us were under the impression that through COVID and warm and cold layup, A lot of this had been worked through and I recognize that this is for a reinstatement of the ship, but is there a way to quantify that? And then Secondly, on marketing, anything we should think about on cadence, not necessarily total spend, but cadence relative to the Offset in Australia and Asia restarts as we look at the next year, year and change?

Speaker 14

Thanks so much.

Speaker 1

Yes. So as far as drydock is concerned, yes, there were a lot of ships that went into drydock last year. But keep in mind, Depending on the ship, depending on the age of the ship, either ships have to go into dry dock once every 5 years or Twice every 5 years. So it's there are lots of differences, and we're always going to have drydocks Every year they do vary and we try to give an indication. But we do expect to have dry docks this year and every year thereafter on a regular basis as we go forward.

Speaker 1

And as far as the cadence on the restart is concerned?

Speaker 4

On the advertising front, it's pretty consistent quarter over quarter for the rest of the year. Things do Live from

Speaker 1

quarter to quarter, but nothing I think is worth pointing out. And our plans might change as Josh indicated before. So it's very hard to give that level of

Speaker 4

So with that, I have to say thanks everybody for joining and talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

Speaker 2

That concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation and ask you to please disconnect your

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Earnings Conference Call
Carnival Co. & Q1 2023
00:00 / 00:00