Packaging Corporation of America Q2 2023 Earnings Report

Packaging Corporation of America EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.31
• Consensus EPS: $1.93
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.38
• One Year Ago EPS: $3.23

Packaging Corporation of America Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.95 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.99 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$33.44 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -12.70%

Packaging Corporation of America Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2023
• Date: 7/25/2023
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, July 25, 2023
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) (NYSE: PKG) is a leading North American manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products. The company produces a range of paper-based packaging solutions including linerboard, corrugating medium, corrugated shipping containers, retail-ready packaging and point-of-purchase displays. In addition to core packaging products, Packaging Corporation of America offers packaging design, testing and supply-chain services intended to optimize protection, cost and sustainability for customers.

Headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois, the company operates an integrated network of mills and corrugated manufacturing facilities across the United States and serves customers throughout North America in industries such as e-commerce, grocery and food & beverage, consumer packaged goods and industrial markets. Its operations span production of both recycled-fiber containerboard and virgin-fiber grades, and the company maintains logistics and converting capabilities to support regional and national supply requirements.

Packaging Corporation of America is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker PKG and has expanded its footprint through investments in manufacturing capacity and strategic growth initiatives. The company emphasizes sustainability and recycling as part of its product and operational strategy, reflecting the cyclical and resource-focused nature of the paperboard and corrugated packaging sector. Packaging Corporation of America is managed by a corporate leadership team and board of directors responsible for executing its manufacturing, commercial and sustainability objectives.

Packaging Corporation of America Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Q2 2023 net income was $203 M ($2.24/share), or $209 M ($2.31/share) excluding special items, down from $304 M ($3.23/share) in Q2 2022, with net sales of $2.0 B versus $2.2 B.
• EBITDA excluding special items fell to $418 M (20.9% margin) from $533 M (24.2% margin) in Q2 2022, driven by lower Packaging volumes (–$0.90/share), Packaging price/mix headwinds (–$0.47/share) and higher depreciation (+$0.09/share), partly offset by lower fiber, energy and chemical costs (+$0.34/share).
• PCA drove operational improvements—improving wood yields, cutting fiber and chemical usage, boosting internal energy generation, controlling headcount and overtime, and executing lower-cost maintenance outages—with the Wallula mill remaining idled to match supply to demand.
• For Q3, PCA guides to $1.88/share, reflecting improved shipments per day (despite one fewer workday), lower containerboard prices, higher paper volumes but softer prices, ~$0.06/share more outage expense, and slightly higher depreciation and tax rates.
• PCA set new Q2 records with $360 M cash from operations and $233 M free cash flow, ending with $630 M in cash and securities and ~$1 B liquidity, and expects 2023 capital spending of ~$400 M, with a similar run rate in 2024.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's second quarter 2023 earnings results conference call. Your host for today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a Q&A session. I'd now like to turn the floor over to Mr. Kowlzan. Sir, please proceed when you're ready.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in Packaging Corporation of America's second quarter 2023 earnings release conference call. Again, I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA, and with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, who runs the packaging business, and Bob Mundy, our Chief Financial Officer. I'll begin the call with an overview of our second quarter results. I'll then be turning the call over to Tom and Bob, who will provide further details. I'll then wrap things up, and we'll be glad to take any questions. Yesterday, we reported second quarter net income of $203 million or $2.24 per share.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Excluding special items, second quarter 2023 net income was $209 million or $2.31 per share, compared to the second quarter of 2022 net income of $304 million or $3.23 per share. Second quarter net sales were $2 billion in 2023 and $2.2 billion in 2022. Total company EBITDA for the second quarter, excluding the special items, was $418 million in 2023 and $533 million in 2022. Second quarter net income included special items expenses of $0.07 per share for certain costs at the Jackson, Alabama mill for paper to containerboard conversion-related activities and closure costs related to corrugated products, facilities, and design centers.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Details of special items for both the second quarter of 2023 and 2022 were included in the schedules that accompanied our earnings press release. Excluding special items, the $0.92 per share decrease in second quarter 2023 earnings compared to the second quarter of 2022 was driven primarily by lower volumes in the packaging segment for $0.90 and paper segment $0.07. Lower price and mix in the packaging segment of $0.47, and higher depreciation expense, $0.09, and higher other converting costs, $0.03. These items were partially offset by lower operating costs of $0.34, primarily driven by lower fiber, energy, and chemical costs.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

We also had higher prices and mix in the paper segment for $0.12, a lower share count resulting from the share repurchase in the second half of 2022 for $0.13, lower scheduled maintenance outage expenses for $0.03, and a lower tax rate for $0.02. The results were $0.35 above the second quarter guidance of $1.96 per share, primarily due to lower operating costs resulting from efficiency and usage initiatives and lower freight and logistics expenses. Looking at our packaging business, EBITDA, excluding special items in the second quarter of 2023 of $405 million, with sales of $1.8 billion, resulted in a margin of 23% versus last year's EBITDA of $525 million and sales of $2.1 billion or a 25% EBITDA margin.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Demand in the packaging segment was about where we expected for the quarter, and Tom will discuss this further in a moment. As they did in the 1st quarter, our employees remained focused on very efficient and cost-effective operations as we balanced our supply according to the demand. Said another way, we are extremely effective at managing what is in our control. In our mills, this included things like improving our wood yields, producing board closer to nominal basis weights, reducing fiber and chemical usage, and running our pulp mills more efficiently, increasing our internal energy generation while also reducing our energy consumption, and executing our planned maintenance outages for less cost than we had estimated. At our mills, and including our corrugated facilities, we closely monitored headcount and overtime, as well as usage of materials and supplies, in addition to other discretionary spending items.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

In addition, our mills and plants, together with our logistics and distribution personnel, worked effectively to minimize the negative impacts from rail rate increases at certain locations and changes in the mix of shipping locations as we ran our system to demand. Finally, as you know, we temporarily curtailed operations at our Wallula, Washington mill once we exited the planned maintenance outage early in the quarter. This was not a reaction to any change in our views on demand, but rather our thoughtful approach to manage containerboard supply as economically as possible. The mill remains temporarily curtailed, and we will continue to monitor any potential changes to this strategy, along with our outlook for demand during the second half of the year. I'll now turn it over to Tom, who will provide more details on containerboard sales in the corrugated business.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you, Mark. Total prices and mix in the packaging segment came in where we anticipated with domestic containerboard and corrugated products, prices, and mixed together $0.32 per share below the second quarter of 2022, and also $0.32 per share below the first quarter of 2023.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

... export containerboard prices were down $0.15 per share versus last year's second quarter, and down $0.07 per share compared to the first quarter of 2023. As Mark indicated, packaging segment volume for the quarter also came in where we expected. Corrugated product shipments were down 9.8% in total and per workday compared to last year's second quarter. Outside sales volume of containerboard was 62,000 tons below last year's second quarter and 33,000 tons above the first quarter of 2023. With last year's box volume tying our shipments per workday second quarter record, we knew this would be a tough comparison period. As we said on last quarter's call, the same variables that have impacted demand the last few quarters would continue into the second quarter.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

The shift of consumer buying preferences more towards service-oriented spending, persistent inflation, and higher interest rates continue to negatively impact consumers' purchases of both durable and nondurable goods. Inventory destocking, both in boxes and at our customers' products, also continued to varying degrees across our customer bases. The manufacturing index has remained in contraction territory for eight months in a row now. However, as we talked about last quarter, we expected some improvement relative to the inventory destocking of both customer product and boxes, as well as improvements based on certain customers' feedback regarding their business. That is what helped the second quarter shipments improve almost 3% compared to the first quarter. We expect continued positive momentum this quarter, although there is one less workday compared to the second quarter. I'll now turn it back to Mark.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thank you, Tom. Looking at the paper segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the second quarter, was $39 million, with sales of $143 million, for a 27% margin compared to the second quarter of 2022 EBITDA of $32 million and sales of $150 million or a 21% margin. Paper prices and mix were 12% higher than last year's second quarter, and less than 1% below the first quarter of 2023. Paper demand remains soft, with our sales volume, just over 14% below last year's second quarter, which also included some sales from our Jackson, Alabama mill, where there was no volume in this year's second quarter.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

We ran our International Falls mill to match supply with demand, as well as to build some additional inventory during the quarter to prepare for the nine-day planned outage, maintenance outage that's coming up this third quarter. Similar to the comments I made regarding the packaging business, and for many of the same categories, employees in our paper business remained focused on efficient and cost-effective operations as they also balanced supply according to demand and delivered outstanding margins for the quarter. I'll now turn it over to Bob.

[Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks, Mark. For the quarter, we generated new second quarter records for cash from operations of $360 million, as well as free cash flow of $233 million. Key cash payments during the quarter included capital expenditures of $126 million, common stock dividends of $112 million, cash taxes of $83 million, and net interest payments of $30 million. We ended the quarter with $630 million of marketable securities and cash on hand, with liquidity of almost $1 billion. I'll now turn it back to Mark.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Thanks, Bob. Looking ahead as we move from the second and into the third quarter, in our packaging segment, although there is one less shipping day for the corrugated business, we expect shipments per day to improve versus the second quarter. Prices will be lower as a result of previously published domestic containerboard price decreases, along with slightly lower export prices. We expect seasonally stronger volumes in our paper segment, from back-to-school shipments, although prices are expected to trend lower based on the recent declines in index prices. Operating and converting costs should trend slightly higher, primarily due to higher recycled fiber prices and seasonal energy cost. Scheduled outage expenses will be higher by approximately $0.06 per share, driven by the scheduled maintenance outage at International Falls, Minnesota. We estimate our depreciation expense and tax rate to be slightly higher as well.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Considering these items, we expect the third quarter earnings of $1.88 per share. We'd be happy to entertain any questions, but I must remind you that some of the statements we've made on the call constituted forward-looking statements. Statements were based on current estimates, expectations, and projections of the company and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including the direction of the economy and those identified as risk factors in the annual report on Form 10-K and on file with the SEC. The actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. With that, Jamie, I'd like to open the call up for questions, please.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star and then one using a touch-tone telephone. To withdraw your questions, you may press star, then two. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask you please pick up your handset prior to pressing the numbers to ensure the best sound quality. Once again, that is star and then one to ask a question. Our first question today comes from George Staphos from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details, and congratulations on the operating performance in the quarter. Mark, Bob, Tom, my first question: the excellent, from our vantage point, operating performance in 2Q, I guess, the $0.34 or so and lower operating costs. How much of that is embedded in your third quarter guidance? Is there any chance, within reasonable probabilities, that you could, you know, given all the efforts that your employees have underway, find further efficiencies and benefits such that, you know, there might be some upside tilt to your guidance? Have us think about how operations might be able to benefit and what's baked into your third quarter guidance.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, George, as we always do, we continue to focus on, you know, 365 days a year.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Yep

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

improvement, operational excellence. One thing we commented on last year as we were moving into 2023, and we were winding down a lot of the major capital projects, we're going to take the approximately 150 engineers and technology personnel in our corporate technology group and really let them focus now on unit operations optimization, and really work with the box plants and mills on a lot of the new equipment, quite frankly, that have been installed in the last couple of years, but really take that to a new level of performance and execution. That's paid off for us this year, as you can see. My answer is, we will continue in that effort.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Nothing's guaranteed, but we do obviously perform quite well in general, and I would expect to see similar results going forward. You know, Tom, Bob, you from your perspective?

[Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, yeah, Mark, it's Bob, George. I'll say that, you know, from the operating cost perspective, you know, we'll hold on to the really the performance we had in the second quarter. You know, if you just assume that, you know, production volume in the mills is similar to the second, maybe up a little bit, we'll see. Yet I would think our cost per ton stays relatively flat. You know, to be able to hold on to that, even though we know OCC prices are, will be higher. If you just take the average, they moved up from the end of the second quarter and just supply that across the third quarter, they're up, like, 12% or 14%. We'll overcome that.

[Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Plus, we have the seasonal electricity rates, you know, that hits you, as well as some seasonal usage items. In effect, we'll pretty much be offsetting that by continuing the excellent, you know, operating cost performance in the mills and in the box plants. Tom?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

George, it's Tom. I would just add one last thing. You know, it's very obvious that, you know, a lot of this, you know, extensive groundwork has taken place. As our volume increases going forward, you know, we're gonna be able to take advantage of this cost position we're in, and it will be quite dramatic, I think, going forward as the business conditions change and get more positive.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Okay.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Very, very helpful.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

George, let me.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Oh, please.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

George, let me add.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Go ahead, Mark.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

George, let me add one thing. You know, if you looked at our quarter and you looked at, you know, month by month, you know, we were running, and not just one mill, but most of the mill system, we were pushing 99% uptime, efficiency, operational efficiency in our mills. I mean, that's unheard of in the industry. Month of June, we had most of the mills in that category, and we had one mill, in particular, that was, like, basically 99.99% uptime efficient. It had no paper breaks. You know, we're in a level now, it's obviously not many of our competitors are there, but that's what we strive to do every day and make it better and better.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

I'm confident we'll continue to see good results.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

It's a great rundown and, obviously something we'll all, you know, try to continue to remember going forward. 2 last ones for me, and I'll turn it over. To some degree, kind of the obligatory, when we think about the 2Q index pricing changes, roughly, how much of that is baked into your 3rd quarter guidance percentage-wise, and what would be left in 4th quarter? Then, you know, Tom or Bob or Mark, you know, back to the closures that you mentioned in corrugated and the design centers. I mean, it's kind of self-explanatory, but what was... If there was a common denominator, what were you looking to achieve with the whatever reconfiguration you were doing? Thank you, guys.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

George, I'll take the closure piece, and then I'll turn it over to Bob, and he can comment on the, you know, the pricing changes going forward. On a, on the closure side, listen, you know, we have continuously, you know, tried to, you know, make sure that we're right-sized for the business, and that we have very efficient operating, you know, methods. Part of our whole capital investment has been around making sure that we're as efficient as we possibly can in the plants that make the most sense. That's been an ongoing process. This is nothing really new. We're just announcing it because it took place in the quarter.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

you know, this is small facilities, and it's consolidation and some things like that. you know, it's kind of more the normal course of business for us. Bob?

[Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, George, regarding the price, you know, I guess a way to think about it is, you know, in the first quarter, there were 2 drops in prices, you know, that occurred during the quarter on the, on the benchmark grade.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

... for $30 a ton, then the second. The, you know, the impact of that is, as we say, it pretty much runs through over a 90-day period. The bulk of that was reflected in our, in our second quarter numbers. If you think about what occurred in the second quarter, where there was a $20 drop, and you sort of ratio that with what happened in the first with a $30 drop, you can sort of get the impact of price in the third quarter. Does that make sense?

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Yeah, I guess so. I mean, I guess what I'd ask is just how much, you know, again, not trying to be too precise, I know you can't be. How much of a residual would be left of that and for the fourth quarter? you know, 5%, 30%?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

For the fourth quarter, you know, most of it will be from the latest drop, will be in the third.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Okay.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

The impact will be. Like I said, if you sort of compare that to what happened in the first, we gave you the impact of.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Yep.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

I mean, yeah, in the second quarter. You would think in the, if no other changes, the fourth should be, you know, you shouldn't see much of an impact if things sort of hang out where they are right now.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

That's perfect. Thank you, Bob. I'll turn it over.

[Operator]

Next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub, from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead with your question.

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Thank you. First, second quarter record cash flow from operations, pretty interesting in this challenging environment. One of the things, obviously, is your CapEx has been coming down after all those big projects. Can you sort of just update us on where are your thoughts for CapEx for this year? Preliminarily, if the environment remains challenging, what type of CapEx you might bracket for next year?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah. You know, Mark, over a year ago, actually, we started getting people thinking about the fact that the heavy projects were winding up. The big projects that we had been involved in over the last 10 years were really coming to fruition, and that 2023 would be a year that we wound that capital down in the $400 million range. Last year, we were $824 million of capital spending, and we'd again, we alerted everybody that this year would be in that $400 level, and that's where we are. I fully expect us to finish the year somewhere in that $400 million area. Then we're already talking about the 2024 capital spending plan.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Looking at our needs and the opportunities, we feel comfortable right now that the number will continue to be in that $400 million area, unless some opportunity came along that was so outstanding that we felt compelled, that we wanted to direct capital into that opportunity. We have that luxury right now. I think for the benefit of running the business in the uncertain times we're in, $400 million range is a good range to be in, and it supports business improvement opportunities, along with maintenance capital spending within the mills and box plants.

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Great.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Does that help?

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Even at the 400, do you still have runway? I think you're referencing to still get some of these operating improvements that we've been seeing in the last couple of quarters, or does that start running out pretty quickly if the CapEx doesn't go higher?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

No, that's the beauty of it. We're continuing to execute every week on a number of opportunities within the box plants, new equipment installations, new equipment, you know, significant rebuilds on modifications on a lot of the production lines. This is not stopping. The mills, you know, as we talked about, we wound up most of the big work at Wallula Mill last year in the woodyard work, in the OCC plant, Jackson, Alabama, most of that work is wound up. We're just waiting for the opportunity to move into the final phase of the number three machine at Jackson. Again, we can do all of that and still keep the capital spending in this $400 million range.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

That provides us an opportunity to really just move forward as we look at what these, you know, whether it's a customer-driven opportunity or a cost takeout, you know, efficiency, energy efficiency, labor efficiency, we continue to see those opportunities. Where we are right now, like I say, barring some big one-off opportunity, you know, some $400 million number keeps us moving forward with taking advantage of this. Bob, just one other thing, Mark, is, you know, a lot of the operating cost improvement and, you know, things that you're seeing is not necessarily capital related. You know, it's just doing things, you know, within the process, watching usage, watching your routines, behaviors, practices, improving upon where you've been before.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

A lot of that is not, you know, it's not capital driven. It's just, you know, there's a huge benefit of our operating cost is managed, you know, just by those things as well. You know, Mark, over the last few years, we were doing hundreds of projects in our box plants and mills on an annual basis. Now, granted, a lot of them are smaller projects, but literally, we had our entire workforce moving to make improvements in hundreds and hundreds of areas every year.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Now that we've been able to slow this process down, we're able to take advantage of that, and now the personnel can really take a much closer look and a deeper dive in how is that equipment running? From a unit operations effectiveness and efficiency, the operating personnel at the plants and the mills, the technology organization, are now really stepping back and looking at all of the new converting lines, the projects at the mills, and really assessing, are these projects doing what we expected them to do? If not, how do we make it do what we expect it to do? They're optimizing and fine-tuning, and the benefits are what we've seen in the second quarter is a great example, and we'll continue to do that.

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Appreciate that, I'd say it's certainly showing. Just one, if I could, go back to the bridge from the second to third quarter, make sure that I understood. I mean, it sounded like there wasn't going to be any negative pickup in operating costs. I guess you alluded to, like, a $0.06 increase in maintenance outages. If we look at the 231 and we go to a $1.88, that would seem to be like a $0.37 other, you know, if we take off the $0.06 for the maintenance. Is that primarily impact from price, or are there other variables to be conscious of when doing that bridge?

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Because it seems kind of high on for a price number.

[Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah. No, you're, I think you're pretty close, Mark. You know, if you looked at those two items. Well, just look at the price and the outages, maybe it's a little bit different than what you were saying, but, you know, there's almost probably 90% of the delta right there. Then on the operating call side, if you take in some of the other things that to offset the higher recycled fiber prices and the energy costs that we spoke of, you know, it's hopefully will be pretty close to a push. What you're left with are just, you know, a couple of cents here and there. We talked about, you know, depreciation.

[Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

We put that in our release, that just has to do, higher depreciation from the second quarter, just has to do with, you know, the timing of placing our assets and service based from our capital spending program. We had some benefits in the second quarter that won't repeat in the third. On the tax side, there were just some favorable tax items from the vesting of stock and performance units, as well as some state tax law changes that gave us a benefit, that don't, you know, don't repeat themselves. Those, you know, those are the other few items that, you know, that get you to that, to that $0.40-$0.43 change.

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Okay, appreciate the color. Thank you.

[Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your question.

[Alex Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Hi, this is Alex on for Gabe. Thanks for taking the question here. I was hoping you could give me some color on the bookings in July, and maybe how that's trending compared to June and May. Just thinking about the Q3 volume pickup, I was wondering if you can help parse out how much of that is seasonality and demand, underlying demand. Thanks.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Okay, Alex, this is Tom. You know, our bookings for July, through about halfway through the month is, you know, very robust, up 15%, which is great, good start to the quarter. The other thing that we're seeing is, I think that's pretty important, and I wanna point out, is that a lot of our customers are telling us that some of this destocking is now over with their products, and that's very important. Hopefully that will translate, you know, throughout the quarter and certainly going into the fourth quarter for some volume that is what I would call more predictable. We still do, I'll just go ahead and point this out right now.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

We do have some, you know, challenging segments still, that we're dealing with, you know, which indicates some of our decline in volume. The ag business, you know, Florida had the worst citrus season they've had since the '30s or '40s. You know, we had hurricanes down there, which completely wiped out some of the tomatoes and all the strawberries for a cycle. We've had flooding in Northern California, which has, you know, caused a lot of problems. They, you know, it's feast or famine there, and I guess, in terms of moisture. Then in Eastern Washington also, they had some pretty serious droughts. That segment has been a drag on us.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

The building product segment was, you know, was booming during COVID, with a lot of remodeling going on and all those sorts of things, that slowed down dramatically. Now, because of high interest rates, it's really slowed down housing starts. That's been a, that's been a drag on us as well as single-use plastic products manufacturers. Those are the, those are the segments that have, you know, impacted us on a negative point. The ag will recover for sure. You know, the e-com and the food and beverage, those segments have held up significantly better.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, I think the key takeaway here, going into the second half of the year, is the fact that a lot of this destocking has now finally taken place, and I think we'll have more predictability going forward relative to volume.

[Alex Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Thanks. Okay. I guess as a follow-up question, I'm just curious, on your cost focus side, can you maybe talk about which side of the

[Alex Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo]

... are still being pressured and maybe some cost buckets that are kind of coming down now?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Well, again, you know, you're always concerned about fiber costs and energy, transportation, especially on the rail. Rail rates continue to move up. You know, as we go through the third into the fourth, we'll be getting into the seasonal cooler months, and, you know, energy usage along with cost pressure from that usage. You know, wood cost is always a factor depending on weather conditions. It's a continuing whole host of all your input and, what's happening at any given time.

[Operator]

Thanks. Okay. Yeah, I'll turn it over. Thank you.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Okay, next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Phil Ng, from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Good morning, Mark, Bob, Tom. This is John Donegan on for Phil. I wanted to start off around the box shipments. You guys have lagged the last few quarters from the overall market, which is, you know, generally surprising given your solid track record. Would you consider that more of a factor of the local customers, and them feeling more of the pinch that you've kind of called out prior? Or is it you're maybe seeing a little bit more pressure from customers on pricing, and you're walking away from some of that business?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

John, it's Tom, I'll take this one. I would say that, you know, there are a couple of reasons why our numbers look like they do. Number one is we had unbelievably tough comps from a year ago. If you go back, I mean, you know, we were significantly higher than the industry, even much higher than our normal trend. I think that's because, as I mentioned, even back then, you know, the wide segment of business and wide swath of different businesses, whether they're local, national, or what segments they're in, all were up significantly, you know, during the COVID period. As I just mentioned a while ago, a number of those have come down significantly. I'm talking...

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

When I say significant, we haven't lost any of these customers, but we have some that are down 50-plus %, still at this rate, just because there was so much demand during COVID, and that demand has shrunk so significantly. You know, those, to me, are the main reasons why, you know, why it looks as if we're lagging the industry, probably more so than. The numbers look so much different than they have in the past.

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Okay, that's helpful. Just with the pricing that we've seen already come out, so the already realized $90 per ton on the containerboard side, are you seeing prices erode maybe a little bit quicker on the box side, or are they staying generally in line with historical trends?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

I got to temper this a little bit in terms of, you know, discussing this. What we're seeing is no, I would say no way is, you know, is the box trend, you know, worse than the linerboard or medium trend. In fact, I would even say that, you know, our observations and what we've heard from our customers, they've been quite surprised that of any linerboard or medium reductions that have taken place. I would say on the box side, it's very much the same thing.

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Okay, that's very helpful. If I could just squeeze one more in. Did the box demand progression in the second quarter seem to get worse from what you had called out month to date on the last earnings call through the rest of the quarter? Could you kind of just give us a breakdown of maybe what you were seeing during the quarter, and then, you know, if things had weakened, was there any material economic downtime that you guys took to kind of help offset that?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, our volume was pretty much what we expected it to be, which was slightly improving, and June, quite frankly, was very strong. You know, we felt pretty good as the quarter moved through the months. Again, we saw that in June, and we're continuing to see that in July. I'm not sure, you know.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, I would just add that, you know, we were up about 3% Q2 over Q1, and, you know, the trend line continues to look quite favorable. You know, we'll. You know, the beauty of what we've done and what we talked about, you know, on the operating side, is that we can flex now however we need to and to whatever the demands are, and do it very cost effectively.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

I, and I'll just add, you know, the economic downtime was pretty much what we had anticipated it to be. You know, there was no change there from what we were assuming.

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

does that mean essentially flat in terms of a ton percentage quarter-over-quarter?

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

On a per ton, on a per day basis.

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Yeah.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

it's up.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

It's up. I think Tom made some comments about what he's seeing as far as trends now and so forth. You know, hopefully, you know, that means from a on a, on a total basis, even though there's one less day, that, you know, that could be a, you know, something that, some tailwind there that hopefully we can, we can realize in our numbers.

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Apologies. To clarify what I meant was the economic downtime on a tons basis?

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

... you were saying there wasn't any change from-

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

You know, again, we'll have to see. You know, that's always a moving target, but I would say, you know, in total, because, you know, we do have less scheduled outages, as far from a ton perspective, so we get tons back from that in the, in the third versus the second. There's an additional day in the mills, so you get another, you know, day there, so there's another 15,000 tons or so. And we'll just manage the economic downtime comminsurate with, you know, that pickup that we're seeing from the second quarter.

[John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Okay. Thank you very much. I'll turn it over.

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Thank you. Next question, please.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, before we do take that question, I just want to remind everyone that in order to join the question queue, you may press Star and then 1. To withdraw your questions, you may press Star and 2. Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Good morning.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Good morning, Anthony.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Tom, just following up on the July trends that you discussed, the 15%, up 15%, is that month-over-month or year-over-year? Then, you know, you talked about this destocking maybe, you know, kind of running its course or maybe being closer to the end. In terms of your own inventories, I mean, you talked about, you know, inventories down 11,000 tons from 1Q. Just wondering where your inventories are broadly kind of relative to target levels or comfort levels. Yeah, those are my questions.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Anthony. You know, relative to the July trends, let's, you know, the one thing, you know, we've typically started out most quarters, you know, up quite a bit year-over-year. You know, that no different, no different this quarter. There's a little more predictability in these numbers than what we've had in the past, and I'm seeing our customers' trends of order patterns starting to come more in line with where they had been prior to all this destocking and this big change from after COVID. So that's the best I can tell you about the July trends. I'm feeling better about these trends than in the past.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

These numbers up, don't forget, when it's bookings, you're talking about not just in the month of July, you're talking about August, September, kind of out through the quarter. But again, these patterns seem to be much more predictable. Relative to the inventories, we didn't talk about export. Export's still a moving target, it's certainly something that we're trying to get our arms around, and it seems to change almost on a daily basis in this global demand. I think we feel comfortable with where our inventories are.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, but again, we've got the ability to flex some, depending on, depending on what the demand curves are.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Okay. That's helpful. The 15%, it was year-over-year, not month-over-month?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yes. Yes.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Yeah, great. Then, I guess, is there any way to frame kind of the financial impact of the Wallula curtailment? You know, understanding this is, you know, in line with, you know, matching supply to demand. Any kind of just broader thoughts on that decision as we go through the year?

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

You know, as we were running through the first quarter and into the second quarter, we were running the mills, in many cases, slowed back and just kind of throttling our way through demand. As we got into the springtime, and we had our outages taking place, we were into the Wallula outage, and we didn't see the improvement at that time, back in April, with demand. So we quickly reassessed our position and realized that it was far better to take the six mills that we currently have running and run them very, very efficiently. Then, in order to do that, you had to take Wallula and keep it down.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

We had Wallula down for the annual outage, we finished that work and decided to just temporarily idle that mill for the time being as we watched the demand situation. By doing that, it allowed us to take the six other containerboard mills and really optimize them and speed them up to the optimum point on their production curve and take advantage of that. That's another part of the benefit we saw in the second quarter earnings.

[Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products at Packaging Corporation of America]

Yeah, Anthony, and just for the, you know, to frame it up a little, you know, it's more, you know, it's that you take out the highest cost mill in our system, and then you run your lower cost mills more full out. You know, even though there is a freight penalty from, you know, Wallula's the lowest cost from a freight perspective because of where it ships to. Do have a freight penalty by, you know, operating that way, but, you know, it's probably close to, you know, $15 a ton of benefit operating that way versus if we had, you know, try to manage it across the entire system rather than isolating Wallula.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

[Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners]

Next question, please.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, and showing no additional questions, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Kowlzan for any closing remarks.

[Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America]

Again, thank you for joining us today on the call, and look forward to talking to you, when we wrap up our third quarter and have our call in October. Have a good day. Thank you.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be wrapping up today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Bob Mundy, EVP and CFO
• Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO
• Tom Hassfurther, EVP, Corrugated Products

Analysts

• Alex Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi
• George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America
• John Duggan, Managing Director at Jefferies
• Mark Weintraub, Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research Partners