Packaging Co. of America Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Participants

Corporate Executives

• Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
• Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products
• Robert P. Mundy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

• George Staphos, Bank of America Securities
• Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners
• Michael Roxland, Truist Financial Co.
• Unidentified Participant
• Anthony Pettinari, Smith Barney Citigroup

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. Your host today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please note that this call is being recorded.

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr Kowlzan and please proceed when you're ready.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, and thank you all for participating in Packaging Corporation of America's third quarter 2023 earnings release conference call. I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA and with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, Executive Vice-President, who runs our Packaging business; and Bob Mundy, our Chief Financial Officer.

As usual, I'll begin the call with an overview of the third quarter results and then. I will turn the call over to Tom and Bob, who will provide further details and then I'll wrap things up and then we'd be glad to take questions.

Yesterday, we reported third quarter net income of $183 million or $2.03 per share. Excluding special items, third quarter of 2023 net income was $185 million or $2.05 per share compared to the third quarter of 2022's net income of $266 million or $2.83 per share. Third quarter net sales were $1.9 billion in 2023 and $2.1 billion in 2022.

Total company EBITDA for the third quarter, excluding special items was $388 million in 2023; $477 million in 2022. Third quarter net income included special items, expenses of $0.02 per share primarily for certain costs at Jackson, Alabama mill for Paper to Containerboard conversion-related activities. Details of all special items for the third quarter of 2023, as well as 2022 were included in the schedules that accompany our earnings press release.

Excluding special items, the $0.78 per share decrease in the third quarter of 2023 earnings compared to the third quarter of 2022 was driven primarily by lower price and mix of $1.33 in volume, $0.09 in the Packaging segments. Higher depreciation expense of $0.11, lower-volume in the paper segment, $0.04; higher tax, $0.02; and other expenses, $0.02. These items were partially offset by lower operating costs of $0.58, primarily resulting from lower recycled fiber and energy prices along with outstanding mill and plant operational execution. Other favorable items included a lower share count resulting from share repurchases in the second half of 2022 for $0.11. Higher prices and mix in the paper segment of $0.04 lower converting costs $0.04; lower scheduled maintenance outage expenses of $0.04 and lower freight and logistics expenses of $0.02. The results were $0.17 above our third quarter guidance of $1.88 per share, primarily due to higher volume in the Packaging and Paper segments and lower operating and converting costs.

Looking at our Packaging segment EBITDA excluding special items in the third quarter of 2023 of $374 million with sales of $1.8 billion resulted in a margin of 21.3% versus last year's EBITDA of $467 million with sales of $1.9 billion and a 24.1% margin. The operational benefits of our capital spending program and the continued great focus and execution of our mills in corrugated products facilities on numerous process improvement initiatives once again delivered impressive results. This included areas such as machine and equipment efficiencies, fiber, chemical and material usages, internal energy generation and usage, and labor costs. Our approach to cost-effective management of containerboard supply with demand also delivers the benefits we are anticipating. This was primarily achieved by idling the Wallula Mill. For the entire quarter, which resulted in a market-related downtime of approximately 174,000 tons. However, with the stronger demand in our Packaging segment, we ended the quarter with inventory levels lower than anticipated.

Based on our current outlook for improved demand together with current plans for the first quarter of 2024 for the scheduled mill maintenance outages and completing the final phase of the containerboard conversion on the number three machine at our Jackson, Alabama mill, we are planning to restart the number three machine at the Wallula Washington Mill during the fourth quarter in order to bring our inventories to desired levels.

I'll now turn it over to Tom, who will provide further details on containerboard sales and the corrugated business.

[Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products at Packaging Co. of America]

Thank you, Mark. Packaging segment volume for the quarter exceeded our guidance estimates. Corrugated product shipments per workday were up 1.9%, and total shipments with two less shipping days were down 1.3% compared to last year's third quarter versus the second quarter of 2023 shipments per day were up 3.9%, and total shipments were up 2.3%, even though there was one less shipping day.

Outside sales volume of containerboard was 33,000 tonnes above last year's third quarter and 5,000 tonnes above the second quarter of 2023. Demand headwinds from a shift of consumer buying preferences towards more service-oriented spending, persistent inflation, and higher interest rates continue to negatively impact consumers' purchases of both durable and non-durable goods. However, we mentioned last quarter that many customers were telling us the inventory destocking of boxes and their products was behind them and we were hopeful that, that would translate to improving volume throughout the second half of the year. We saw that occurring during the third quarter and we expect that momentum to continue into the fourth quarter, although there is one less shipping day compared to the third quarter.

Relative to the published reductions in the industry benchmark grades that occurred late last year and earlier this year, domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix together were $1.12 per share below the third quarter of 2022 and down $0.45 per share compared to the second quarter of 2023. Export containerboard prices and mix were down $0.21 per share compared to the third quarter of 2022 and down $0.03 per share compared to the second quarter of 2023.

I'll now turn it back to Mark.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thank you, Tom. Looking at our Paper segment, EBITDA excluding special items in the third quarter was $35 million with sales of $158 million or a 22.4% margin compared to the third quarter of 2022's EBITDA of $33 million and sales of $165 million or 19.7% margin. Seasonally stronger cup size and printing and converting volumes were 13% higher than the second quarter levels and down almost 8% versus the third quarter of '22 with about 40% of the decline being driven by no paper sales from our Jackson mill in this year's third quarter. Prices and mix were up about 3.5% from last year's third quarter and down 2% from the second quarter of 2023 due to the declines in the index prices that occurred earlier in the year.

Our International Falls mill managed their 90-day planned maintenance outage very well and similar to the packaging facilities, the mill remained focused on efficient and cost-effective operations, delivering great results for the quarter.

I'll now turn it back to Bob.

[Robert P. Mundy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations during the quarter totaled $339 million with a free cash flow of $250 million. The more significant cash payments during the quarter included capital expenditures of $90 million. Common stock dividends totaled $112 million, $63 million for federal and state income tax payments, and $51 million for pension and other post-employment benefit contributions.

In addition, we repurchased just over 286,000 shares of our stock during the quarter at an average price of $144.81 per share for a total of about $42 million. We ended the quarter with $726 million of cash including marketable securities and our liquidity on September 30th was approximately $1.1 billion.

Lastly, our planned annual maintenance -- maintenance outage -- outage expense for the third quarter was just over $0.22 per share. In the fourth quarter is now expected to be about $0.19 bringing the 2023 full-year total to $0.72 per share.

I'll now turn it back over to Mark.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thanks, Bob. Looking ahead, as we move forward to -- into the -- from the third quarter into the fourth quarter. In our Packaging segment, we expect less market-related downtime as we build our inventories back to appropriate levels along with higher shipments per day in our corrugated products facilities. Although our plants will have one less shipping day compared to the third quarter. We also expect lower average prices, primarily due to the majority of the may decrease in the published benchmark index being realized throughout the third quarter as well as a seasonally less rich mix.

In our Paper segment, volume will be lower compared to the seasonally stronger third quarter, and prices and mix are assumed to trend lower with declines in the index prices. Operating and converting costs will increase driven by higher recycled fiber prices, seasonal energy costs, and the restart of the Wallula Mill. Depreciation expense is estimated to be slightly higher and scheduled maintenance outage expenses will be lower. Considering all of these items, we expect the fourth quarter earnings of $1.76 per share.

With that, we'd be happy to entertain any questions but I must remind you that some of the statements we've made on the call constituted forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current estimates, expectations, and projections of the company and do involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including the direction of the economy and those identified as risk factors in the Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

And with that, Jamie, I'd like to go ahead and open up the call for questions, please.

Questions and Answers

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we'll begin the question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Cashen Keeler from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

[George Staphos, Analyst at Bank of America Securities]

Hi, it's George Staphos. How are you, everybody? Congratulations on the quarter.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Good morning, George.

[George Staphos, Analyst at Bank of America Securities]

I'd just how you are -- during conference calls today at this time. So, again, congratulations on the performance. Can you talk to the nominated a number of factors in terms of the lower operating and converting costs, I know, market is always a number of projects, but were there any in particular that we're sources of the improved performance? Yes, there's going to be some pickup in the fourth quarter as seasonally and you have OCC higher, but how much do you carry forward and what's the room for further improvement on both operating and converting costs as we look out to '24 from where we're at right now, if you can talk a little bit to that.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

It's the benefit of the year-after-year continuous improvement that we've had in place. And as we've said over that -- over the years, we're constantly doing hundreds and hundreds of projects a year. Some are small, some are large but nevertheless, it's an ongoing continuous process across the board. And if you think about the box plants and the mills, there is a daily activity with the technology organization in concert with the local operational management focused clearly on cost takeout and just, operational excellence and this has been going on for a number of years and will continue to go on.

Tom, I think you've got great examples in the box plants we just continue to execute.

[Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products at Packaging Co. of America]

Yeah, I think, George, this is really an effort to really realize the deployment of the capital that we've done in the -- in all the box plants and to streamline those box plants and to really get those box plants right-sized for the growth we've got coming and what the existing volume is right now. So we're very pleased, we're very-very pleased with the results.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

George, as far as next year as you could expect, we're already and have been talking about, what's on the horizon for next year, what are the opportunities. And so we got to a very good solid plan in place. On where we're going after these cost takeouts and continued operational improvements along with just being able to look at what the market requirements are going to be in terms of customer needs and in addressing that. And while we address that, we're always looking at and how we are deploying that capital and how that impacts the operation in terms of labor cost and energy and input conversion cost. So we've got a good plan for next year also.

[George Staphos, Analyst at Bank of America Securities]

It sounds like it wouldn't be surprised by that, Mark. So till Wallula and again I know it's hard to talk about some of the slide, Mike, but the restart for the fourth quarter. What does it mean about what your customers are saying for '24, I realize you need to rebuild inventories and we note, PM 3, Jackson is going to be down for the last part of the conversion, but what does it mean in terms of your demand outlook, what your customers are saying and hopefully, this isn't the case, but if things wind up being from a macro standpoint, a little bit softer, how quickly could you maybe pull back on Wallula if need be? And then my last question, I'll turn it over. Can you talk to us a bit about how you're early fourth quarter bookings and billings are and how we should again, think about how those map to actual volumes? Thanks and good luck in the quarter, guys.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thanks, George. Yeah, as far as Wallula. As we've always said we're going to run to demand and Wallula is just one of the opportunities we have to move the needle on our needs. And so by getting number three started up over the course of the next couple of weeks, it will fulfill our current needs and we will anticipate that through next year if demand just holds on the trajectory that it is right now, we'll need Wallula running through the year and so we will look at the opportunity to supply the marketplace. We've got our own internal targets on what we want our inventories to be to minimize transportation and logistics issues but we can flex the system up and down and will as we always have, we will always run to demand. So that's how I'd answer that.

And then, Tom, why don't you go into the current boxcar up?

[Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products at Packaging Co. of America]

Yeah, let me let me first just kind of tag along with what Mark just said relative to running to demand. That is what we do and if we didn't have the demand, we wouldn't be talking about restarting Wallula pure and simple. Now to calibrate that a little bit, George, I think you need to really look at our low point was the first quarter of 2023, in terms of demand. Our demand currently is just in a couple of quarters is now 8% higher than that number and going higher going forward. So, that's the real reason why we need the cut-up in at Wallula it's really being driven on the box side of the business more so than anything else. And relative to the bookings and the billings. Again, our bookings are up 14% for this at the beginning. And again that's, you got to take that number because we've had high numbers, and then we come in a little low, we come in significantly lower for the actual quarter because a lot of these bookings are for -- for quite a ways out, but I think the key here is that the backlog remains incredibly strong and our cut-up demand is also very strong. So we feel, we feel very good about where we are in the fourth quarter and certainly entering into next year.

[George Staphos, Analyst at Bank of America Securities]

Thank you very much.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead with your question.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Thank you. Tom, just following-up, you mentioned an 8% reference to your demand now versus I think first quarter. So is that sort of what you're expecting in the fourth quarter on an average day basis because that's sort of trying to do a little bit of math and again is that how to think about that number? Well, mentioned. Yeah, Mark, I mean our trend, our trends still remains, remains positive. So, we'll be up and again I think it's really important to get calibrated kind of the correct way to some extent, and because when we look at the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of '22, in '22, we had an extra day in there given the -- the way the FBA holidays fell. So we were actually up a couple of percent in the fourth quarter of '22 over the third quarter of '22 and, but then of course in the first quarter of '23 is when we really hit what I call rock-bottom in terms of demand. And as I said, so we're up just in a couple of quarters, 8%, and we look at that number going up again in the fourth quarter. Got it, okay. Thank you. And just on the Jackson project. Could you just remind us what the end result is going to be, is it happening in the fourth quarter and the first quarter?

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

No.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

And okay. Just color on that would be great.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Again, no. The work will be done next year late first quarter into the second quarter. It's a longer outage, but it will be the final phase of the completion work necessary to take care of the big machine, but you're talking about '23 additional high-pressure dryer cans, modifying the press section, we're moving the 4th press, and installing the new shoe press. Number of modifications in that regard to enhance the speed, the drawing capability, but it's that final phase that gets the productivity up but also some of the work in the back-end of the mill is related to the cost position of the mill. So when this work is done depending on the demand coming out of that mill that mill will be as far as cost-competitive position, it will be right in there with DeRidder, and Counts [Phonetic], and Valdosta.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Great. And if you just want, I think it was like a 65,000 ton per year this part, or correct me what that number was and if there's a way for it to calibrate the amount of cost per ton or whatever the best way to look at it. What you're expecting to achieve with this last phase would be helpful too.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

I'm not going to answer that right now because I don't want to say the wrong thing, I'm going to let Bob if he recalls, but at the end of the day, the machine. If you think about where we've been running the machine on a daily basis. The machine has been flexing anywhere from 1,200 tonnes a day to 1,800 tonnes a day depending on what we needed but when we're done with this project the capability of that machine will be well over 2,000 tonnes a day, the target is 2,400 tonnes a day when we're done with this. So if you use a 352-day year you'll get your annual tonnes.

[Robert P. Mundy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Yeah, Mark, and the improvement from where we are today versus where we will be when we -- when we hit that run rate after the completion of the second phase, it's close to $40 a ton. That benefit coming from most of your direct variable type costs and you're getting all this additional volume with no increases in your obviously your indirect costs or any fixed costs. So you get up, you get a nice, nice huge benefit once this project is completed.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Great. And so we can just take the 2,400 times 350 or whatever, or 360.

[Robert P. Mundy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Just for simple math, you can whether use 2,000 or 2,200, but the ultimate goal between myself and some of the people around me it's that the machine will be at 2,400 ton a day machine someday when we're done fine-tuning it but it could be, to my knowledge, it will be the most productive low-cost linerboard machine in the Western Hemisphere.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Okay, one last quick one. I'm curious here, was mix much of a factor in terms of the 133, I guess it's 112 domestic, but wasn't mix much of a factor in the corrugated or was that just mostly price?

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

No, mix is a big factor in there both in end-users and in basis weights. So it's -- there's a heck of a lot that goes into what the final pricing is and as I mentioned last time and I'll just mention it again Building Products. That's still that segment, which is a good segment for us still remains underwater as housing starts have been affected by higher interest rates. The graphics mix and the effect of what's going on and the changes that are taking place in brick-and-mortar stores. That's been impacted. And of course, our Automotive segment with the UAW strike is now really starting to get impacted. Now, all of those, all of those segments tend to be on the higher price side, however, we've got a lot of other segments that are doing quite well and we're -- and we've haven't been impacted much at all other than what you've seen in the publications in terms of price.

[Mark Weintraub, Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Okay, super. Thank you.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thank you. Next question.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mike Roxland from Truist. Please go ahead with your question.

[Michael Roxland, Analyst at Truist Financial]

Thank you, Mark and Bob, for taking my questions. Congrats on another solid quarter despite a tough environment.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thank you.

[Robert P. Mundy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thanks, Mike.

[Michael Roxland, Analyst at Truist Financial]

Just kind of a little bit more, I wonder if you could provide a little more color just about the cadence of shipments during the quarter. There's just a little more color on elaborating the point I should say, some of the different end-markets that you some good color before on the prior questions on Building Products, in the Automotive segment, but anything you could provide as to maybe some slight, the cadence during the quarter and what end-markets really showed some significant growth as the quarter progressed.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

In-markets when things started picking up there. Okay, well, Mike, I kind of I think I got most of what you're asking here, but outside of those markets that I mentioned. One other market that I had mentioned prior, was the Ag business, and told you that we had a lot of headwinds in Ag especially weather-related. Those have pretty much decipitated and we're looking for a very good Ag season coming up. So that's -- so that's going to be -- that's going to be a lift. Of course, e-com has continues to kind of take a little bit of a larger share of the corrugated business, and that looks very good. And all, in general, I mean, we're selling a lot of food and beverage and all sorts of other segments and those segments either remained very steady or have look good going forward and I think the best news is that becoming more predictable now, given the fact that we've gotten all of this inventory and destocking out of the way and our customers are operating quite lean at the moment. And so it's it's a lot easier to predict what's happening in a number of these segments. Hope that -- I hope that answers your question.

[Michael Roxland, Analyst at Truist Financial]

No, it's very helpful. Thank you. And Bob, as you think about what bringing back well. Can you talk about any headwinds that any of your other mills might face, I recall that last quarter you mentioned that because of Wallula being down, we were able to optimize production at your remaining those in achieving a $50 per ton benefits. So any headwinds that you could expect, anticipate at your other mills once Wallula is fully up and running?

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Well, no, again, currently because of the inventory situation, we will have to run the entire mill system, the capacity and so the six mills that ran during the third quarter will have to continue running full-out. And then, Wallula number three will have to come up and perform equally as efficiently.

[Michael Roxland, Analyst at Truist Financial]

One final question if I could squeeze in here? Mark, can you help us think about how you're thinking of growing the business once you're past the face value of the conversion of number three in Jackson next, where does growth come from there, is the current conversion of eyeballs resumption of M&A, how should we think about you're growing the business let's say, post-2024.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Well, if you look at over the decades we've always grown with our customers and we still have the most diverse broad book of business nationwide with local accounts and we'll continue to grow with those accounts and help enhance their business. And so that's where a lot of the opportunity always comes from.

Tom, do you want to elaborate on that well?

[Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products at Packaging Co. of America]

I think in addition, I think that, as I mentioned these segments that are down, those segments are going to come back. So they're going to show back up and we'll continue to what we think is operate, demonstrate the best value in the marketplace to an entire customer base and be able to grow our business accordingly as well. So, we'll. We are. We're constantly looking outward to see what's possible and what those demands look like and working very closely with our customers and we want to make sure we're well-aligned. That's what's driving the whole Wallula project at the moment.

[Michael Roxland, Analyst at Truist Financial]

Got it, thank you very much, and good luck in the quarter.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Thank you. Next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your question.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Hi, this is Alex on for Gabe. Thanks for taking my question. So, just thinking about the inventory level. Can you maybe just comment on what your targeted inventory looks like through year-end or tier-one when thinking about the Jackson [Phonetic].

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Okay, we never give absolute numbers but I can tell you when we started out the third quarter, we -- the targets we had in mind, we under -- we were dramatically lower than what our goals were for the ending inventory and that's a positive situation to be in, especially when we have the opportunity to get Wallula started back up and satisfy the demand but we have a number in mind in what will influence that number, of course, is the shutdown schedule we have in plans for the Jackson conversion and then the other annual shutdowns that will take place in the first six months of the year in the rest of the containerboard system. And so without giving you an absolute number, we have some work to do to get our inventory upward where it needs to be to get us into the New Year and get us through the first six months of the year.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Okay, thanks. And just thinking about what. Is there any? And we think there's anything changed with the cost structure that we should be mindful of as the mill restarts and variable are fixed.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Again, Wallula, it's no surprise is our higher-cost mill because of the fiber basket and the energy situation in the Pacific Northwest but it remains a critical mill because of the local with our Pacific Northwest box plants. And so in that regard the cost position will change, we're taking advantage of running the big machine. We don't currently need the number two machine running, but that could change. So again, we will run to demand. We will satisfy what we need. Tom, you want to add.

[Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products at Packaging Co. of America]

Yeah, I would just add that with the Wallula mill operating in a very large market for us, it certainly gives us a lot more flexibility in the box plant to react and respond quicker to the marketplace as that continues to rebound, and, of course, that's heavy Ag up there as well. So this will be -- this will give us some advantage in terms of flexibility in that marketplace.

[Robert P. Mundy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Yeah, Alex and I'll just add that when we bring Wallula back on in the fourth quarter again doing our comparisons to the third. As Mark said, it is our highest-cost mill and we are as we get things ready so that we can restart the machine first of November. We have been incurring labor costs and other things, obviously with no production, so but there are no significant cash costs to restart. There may be some noncash, some raw material write-off obsolescence type things, but nothing, nothing significant there, but it does, if you're comparing to the third quarter, it accounts for as far as our cost increase. If you look at our operating costs, it's almost half of the increase is just coming from restarting Wallula and bringing those costs back online.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Great. Perfect. That's it. And I guess my last question is, just thinking about 2024, and maybe can you just kind of frame about how you're thinking about '24, I know there's still another quarter for '24 but just for the high levels of percentage, how do you think about '24?

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Well, just on a macro-level, we're going to continue to do what we do run to demand. But the other thing is if I were an investor, which I am, but I would be looking at this on how we use our cash and where we're deploying cash and we talked about this a little bit at the July call for next year and we would anticipate the capital spending discipline to continue in the trend that it's been, we'll be in that $400 million level this year and plans call for next year to continue that pace of capital deployment which if you then think about the excess cash being generated, where that goes that, there are other opportunities to take advantage of that and bring value to the shareholders. And so we'll again continue to take advantage of the benefits of all the capital spending that we've been bringing to bear, get Jackson completed, and then continue to look at more opportunities and execute and work with our customer base and take care of our customers.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Perfect. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Right. Next question.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup]

Good morning.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Good morning.

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup]

We've seen a large amount of new recycled capacity being added to the market this year, I guess some integrated, some non-integrated and I just had two questions. I guess, first, could you talk about the impact on the market that you've seen or maybe you haven't seen. And then second maybe for more a big-picture perspective, how should we think about PCAs mix, historically you've been a virgin board producer, are there some opportunities to add recycled capacity, I guess, what will work and process OCC, or do you still see virgin playing this kind of unique role in the US market? How do you think about that maybe over the next decade?

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

We've always been primarily a virgin linerboard medium producer. We have the capability of flexing a number of our mills. I think most people understand that we've invested heavily over the last decade in these conversion opportunities DeRidder, Wallula, and now the Jackson mill counts, the Northern mills, all have recycled capacity but again, we're not going to put all our eggs in one basket and go all into recycle. We take advantage of it and it does give us some opportunities to flex the fiber cost time of year and availability, but again I think if you look at us 10 years from now, we'll still look the same that we do today in terms of our fiber balance. Tom?

[Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products at Packaging Co. of America]

Anthony, the impact in the marketplace of the let's say the one-offs even having some integration in some of these mills is bearing out exactly like I had told you it would with the very limited open market, we have seen virtually no impact at all from these mills. They're going to have to find a home somewhere else. Now, the ones that are integrated and will -- will be running to demand, I'm sure and they're not even attempting to sell into the open market. Those are the one-offs. My attempt to sell into the open market. But again, it's we're finding that our domestic customers want to stick with PCA for the fact that we've got a great quality linerboard and medium and we take care of our customers, our service is very good and they've shown absolutely zero interest in moving to any other supplier and I think that's probably true across the board. So that I hope -- hopefully, that answers that.

And just to tag on with what Mark was saying. We value our fiber flexibility and I can tell you that our mills are. If you go back, when you can go back in history and find PCA was a heavy-weight mill system and we've completely adapted to whatever the market is today and we've got this ability to basically tailor our liners to whatever the needs of our customers are and that's it, and that's a huge competitive advantage we have.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

One of the factors. If you think about recycled versus virgin fiber, virgin fiber prices input costs, conversion costs have been very stable over the decades relatively speaking. If you're solely dependent on the OCC deal, okay, the price and cost inputs swings have been wild, high-low, high-low and so trying to anticipate what your conversion cost is not a good place to be if you're 100% recycle. So we like where we are. We will continue with this with this model. Next question,

[Anthony Pettinari, Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup]

Okay. Yes, that's very helpful. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Good morning, Mark, Bob, Tom, this is John.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Good morning. Hi, Phil.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

I wanted to start off with the implied 4Q guide for box shipments. I mean. I know you said our bookings are up 14%, but bookings aren't actually built. So if I'm just reading your press release being up on a per day basis in 4Q quarter-over-quarter one less shipping day. It seems to imply that 4Q, at least for the guide is up about. 14.5%, 15%. Is that the right way to think about it? Any extra color you can give on that?

[Thomas A. Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, Corrugated Products at Packaging Co. of America]

No, that's not the right way to think about it, Phil, but I can turn it over to Bob and see if he can walk you through this just a little bit, maybe see how to calibrate it.

[Robert P. Mundy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Well, I'm not sure I can, Tom. No, Phil, I'm not sure, maybe we can talk afterwards, if I'm not sure how you're arriving at that certainly from anything that we said or put out, but that obviously would be a tremendous things but if that were to happen, but I just don't see how you how you're getting there, maybe if you could just talk offline.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Sounds good. And then just in terms of expectations going into the fourth quarter, obviously, it sounds like things there, even if not mid-teens, they're still going pretty good and get more visibility. It seems a little bit in contrast to what [Indecipherable] said with. Just generally expectations for a softer holiday demand and I know it's customer-by-customer and they are obviously not serving the whole market but are you seeing the holiday demand here in the fourth quarter actually coming through pretty good?

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Yeah. I would say the holiday demand is going to be -- is going to be strong. Yes.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Great. And just one last quick clarification, the 174,000 tons of economic downtime that you called out, was that just for Wallula, or the whole company is incorporated into that from the economic downtime?

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

That was the Wallula downtime.

[Unidentified Participant, at Packaging Co. of America]

Okay. All right. I appreciate it. I'll turn it over.

[Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Packaging Co. of America]

Okay, thank you. Next question. Jamie, is anybody left on the queue? I guess, we will conclude. I think we lost our moderator on the call, but for those of you that joined us today, I want to thank you for taking the time and I look forward to having you join us at the end of January for our full-year and fourth quarter call with that. With that have a good day. Take care.