Research Analysts Offer Predictions for AGO Q4 Earnings

Key Points

• Roth Capital has reduced its Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Assured Guaranty Ltd. from $1.74 to $1.50, signaling a more pessimistic outlook for the company.
• Shares of Assured Guaranty have recently been downgraded by analysts, with Wall Street Zen changing its rating from "hold" to "sell" and UBS Group from "neutral" to "reduce."
• The company reported a quarterly EPS of $1.01, which missed analyst estimates of $1.57, despite a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 39.1% to $281 million.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO - Free Report) - Equities researchers at Roth Capital dropped their Q4 2025 EPS estimates for Assured Guaranty in a note issued to investors on Friday, August 8th. Roth Capital analyst H. Fong now expects that the financial services provider will post earnings of $1.50 per share for the quarter, down from their prior forecast of $1.74. The consensus estimate for Assured Guaranty's current full-year earnings is $7.30 per share. Roth Capital also issued estimates for Assured Guaranty's Q2 2026 earnings at $1.57 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $1.84 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $6.85 EPS.

Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 7th. The financial services provider reported $1.01 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.57 by ($0.56). The business had revenue of $281.00 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $203.91 million. Assured Guaranty had a net margin of 44.53% and a return on equity of 7.18%. The company's quarterly revenue was up 39.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period last year, the firm earned $1.44 earnings per share.

A number of other research analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Wall Street Zen cut shares of Assured Guaranty from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a research report on Saturday, August 9th. Zacks Research raised shares of Assured Guaranty to a "strong sell" rating in a research report on Friday, August 8th. Finally, UBS Group set a $92.00 target price on shares of Assured Guaranty and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research report on Wednesday.

Assured Guaranty Trading Down 0.9%

AGO stock traded down $0.77 during midday trading on Monday, reaching $81.78. 30,345 shares of the company's stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 330,425. The company has a market capitalization of $3.89 billion, a P/E ratio of 9.04 and a beta of 0.88. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, a current ratio of 0.75 and a quick ratio of 0.83. Assured Guaranty has a fifty-two week low of $74.09 and a fifty-two week high of $96.50. The business has a 50-day moving average price of $84.50 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $86.14.

Assured Guaranty Dividend Announcement

The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 3rd. Stockholders of record on Wednesday, August 20th will be given a dividend of $0.34 per share. This represents a $1.36 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1.7%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Wednesday, August 20th. Assured Guaranty's payout ratio is presently 15.03%.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In related news, CEO Dominic Frederico sold 71,917 shares of Assured Guaranty stock in a transaction on Monday, May 19th. The shares were sold at an average price of $86.11, for a total value of $6,192,772.87. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer owned 1,348,073 shares in the company, valued at approximately $116,082,566.03. The trade was a 5.06% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Also, COO Robert Bailenson sold 40,000 shares of Assured Guaranty stock in a transaction on Monday, August 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $81.51, for a total transaction of $3,260,400.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief operating officer owned 291,728 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $23,778,749.28. This trade represents a 12.06% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Over the last three months, insiders have sold 122,355 shares of company stock worth $10,352,198. Corporate insiders own 5.10% of the company's stock.

Institutional Trading of Assured Guaranty

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock. Jane Street Group LLC increased its stake in shares of Assured Guaranty by 74.5% in the second quarter. Jane Street Group LLC now owns 129,202 shares of the financial services provider's stock worth $11,253,000 after buying an additional 55,162 shares during the last quarter. Raymond James Financial Inc. increased its stake in shares of Assured Guaranty by 60.7% in the second quarter. Raymond James Financial Inc. now owns 481,707 shares of the financial services provider's stock worth $41,957,000 after buying an additional 182,004 shares during the last quarter. Quantinno Capital Management LP increased its stake in shares of Assured Guaranty by 54.4% in the second quarter. Quantinno Capital Management LP now owns 135,397 shares of the financial services provider's stock worth $11,793,000 after buying an additional 47,716 shares during the last quarter. Squarepoint Ops LLC increased its stake in shares of Assured Guaranty by 111.8% in the second quarter. Squarepoint Ops LLC now owns 30,956 shares of the financial services provider's stock worth $2,696,000 after buying an additional 16,342 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Sei Investments Co. increased its stake in shares of Assured Guaranty by 14.9% in the second quarter. Sei Investments Co. now owns 12,825 shares of the financial services provider's stock worth $1,117,000 after buying an additional 1,659 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors own 92.22% of the company's stock.

About Assured Guaranty

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments.