Roth Capital Issues Pessimistic Forecast for AGO Earnings

Key Points

• Roth Capital has reduced its Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Assured Guaranty Ltd. from $1.74 to $1.50, signaling a more pessimistic outlook for the company.
• Shares of Assured Guaranty have recently been downgraded by analysts, with Wall Street Zen changing its rating from "hold" to "sell" and UBS Group from "neutral" to "reduce."
• The company reported a quarterly EPS of $1.01, which missed analyst estimates of $1.57, despite a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 39.1% to $281 million.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO - Free Report) - Equities research analysts at Roth Capital cut their Q4 2025 EPS estimates for Assured Guaranty in a report released on Friday, August 8th. Roth Capital analyst H. Fong now anticipates that the financial services provider will earn $1.50 per share for the quarter, down from their prior estimate of $1.74. The consensus estimate for Assured Guaranty's current full-year earnings is $7.30 per share. Roth Capital also issued estimates for Assured Guaranty's Q2 2026 earnings at $1.57 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $1.84 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $6.85 EPS.

AGO has been the topic of several other research reports. Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Assured Guaranty from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a report on Saturday. UBS Group lowered shares of Assured Guaranty from a "neutral" rating to a "reduce" rating in a report on Friday.

Assured Guaranty Price Performance

Shares of NYSE AGO opened at $82.12 on Monday. The firm's 50-day moving average price is $84.68 and its 200-day moving average price is $86.34. Assured Guaranty has a 1-year low of $73.00 and a 1-year high of $96.50. The firm has a market capitalization of $4.03 billion, a P/E ratio of 9.07 and a beta of 0.88. The company has a current ratio of 0.75, a quick ratio of 0.83 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30.

Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, August 7th. The financial services provider reported $1.01 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.57 by ($0.56). Assured Guaranty had a net margin of 44.53% and a return on equity of 7.18%. The company had revenue of $281.00 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $203.91 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $1.44 EPS. Assured Guaranty's revenue for the quarter was up 39.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Assured Guaranty Announces Dividend

The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 3rd. Investors of record on Wednesday, August 20th will be issued a $0.34 dividend. This represents a $1.36 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1.7%. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, August 20th. Assured Guaranty's dividend payout ratio is currently 16.25%.

Insider Transactions at Assured Guaranty

In related news, CAO Laura Bieling sold 2,649 shares of the company's stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, May 13th. The shares were sold at an average price of $87.76, for a total value of $232,476.24. Following the sale, the chief accounting officer owned 13,462 shares in the company, valued at $1,181,425.12. This represents a 16.44% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. Also, CEO Dominic Frederico sold 10,438 shares of the company's stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, May 20th. The stock was sold at an average price of $86.13, for a total transaction of $899,024.94. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer owned 1,337,635 shares in the company, valued at $115,210,502.55. This represents a 0.77% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders sold a total of 85,004 shares of company stock worth $7,324,274 in the last 90 days. 5.10% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Assured Guaranty

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in AGO. Nuveen LLC bought a new position in shares of Assured Guaranty during the 1st quarter valued at approximately $293,632,000. Raymond James Financial Inc. bought a new position in shares of Assured Guaranty during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $28,060,000. GAMMA Investing LLC grew its position in shares of Assured Guaranty by 8,932.0% during the 1st quarter. GAMMA Investing LLC now owns 240,161 shares of the financial services provider's stock valued at $211,580,000 after acquiring an additional 237,502 shares during the period. First Trust Advisors LP grew its position in shares of Assured Guaranty by 89.0% during the 4th quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 488,895 shares of the financial services provider's stock valued at $44,005,000 after acquiring an additional 230,258 shares during the period. Finally, Reinhart Partners LLC. grew its position in shares of Assured Guaranty by 12.8% during the 1st quarter. Reinhart Partners LLC. now owns 1,134,810 shares of the financial services provider's stock valued at $99,977,000 after acquiring an additional 129,026 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 92.22% of the company's stock.

Assured Guaranty Company Profile

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments.

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